Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
Given the additional cost in draft picks and international bonus money I am glad the Sox did not go that high.
The Phils signing Santana means they're about to trade one of Hoskins/Altherr/Herrera/Williams, all of whom are pretty valuable, for pitching. If it's true that they're talking to the D-Backs about Greinke, this affects us. They seem to think their window is opening.
Even after the Neshek, Hunter, and Santana signings, they're still only at $40M in 2018 commitments before arb payouts.
Even after the Neshek, Hunter, and Santana signings, they're still only at $40M in 2018 commitments before arb payouts.
You keep saying they have no prospects of value, so how do you propose they trade for a middle of the order bat?
People generally underestimate the market every winter. As well as the potential interest a team might have in spending money and trying to win more games even when they aren't viewed as paper ready to contend. It's basically an off-season tradition.
I think this effects Hosmer's per/year more so then JDM. Also glad it wasn't us handing out the 3 year contract. Hopefully this doesn't lead to DD jumping the gun.
Nervous about that Greinke-to-Philly possibility. It's starting to feel like Hosmer is going to be the only option for a FA "splash" at 1B. That's the kind of situation that led to Pablo Sandoval being a Red Sox.
Right. Using their 178 mil payroll in 2014 as a baseline, the Phillies may have more money to spend then any team in MLB -- or all of Amercian sports -- history.
It's a good time for the Phillies to strike IMO.
With Harper, Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez as free agents next season, the Marlins tanking, and the Mets being Metsy, they could leap frog up to 2nd pretty easily. Them and the Braves could be fun to watch the next few years.
With Harper, Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez as free agents next season, the Marlins tanking, and the Mets being Metsy, they could leap frog up to 2nd pretty easily. Them and the Braves could be fun to watch the next few years.
More speculation than rumor, but what do you think about the possibility of Machado to SF? They need a 3B and a middle of the order bat, and he allows them to focus on defense (Cain?) in the OF.
Cozart to the Angels for 3 years and $38 mil. Seems incredibly low and I would have gladly taken that if it made Bogaerts a trade chip.
I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but the general notion around here that Hosmer would turn out to be as bad as Sandoval is just projection-fueled foolishness.
The JDM thing has more variables than just money.
With Santana gone - concentrating on JDM requires either Ramirez to play 1B or be traded. (JDM in the outfield? In lieu of JBJ? Sounds like an unnecessarily risky defensive downgrade.)
Then it becomes - does Ramirez revert back to form? Or is he simply on the down swing of his career...)
Option A: Martinez DH / Ramirez 1B
Option B: Martinez DH / Hosmer* 1B (Hanley gone)
Option C: Ramirez DH / Martinez LF / Hosmer* 1B (JBJ gone)
Option D: Ramirez DH / Hosmer* 1B
(*or some other 1B like Moreland, etc.)
The team sure could use 2 sluggers in the lineup. Don't know how that happens without a rejuvenated Ramirez and some defensive downgrades)
Got to get creative. Bradley could be used as a trade chip. He’s already been out there. I’d be fine dealing him for a bat like a Schwarber. I think Bradley has more value personally so there would need to be an additional piece coming back. Then go out and sign Austin Jackson for a year. Not sexy but it fills holes and gets the job done. Schwarber as an every day DH would be good. I’d hate to give up Bradley but his deal is coming up in a couple years and you can’t realistically resign everyone.
If you go the FA route. Maybe see if Bruce is willing to take a pillow deal? I doubt it and he’s got more warts than a lot of the upper tier hitters available. Morrison has no track record to speak of. If Baltimore was willing to eat some cash maybe Davis. I’m not sure what the actual options out on the table are but limiting yourself to JD or bust is nuts. Which it seems like they’re doing. I don’t believe any of the Hosmer talk. Especially not after today. The Sox pay 25 million for him and that’s going to make the Hanley deal seem like a bargin in comparison.
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Schwarber is a .222 hitter. He's your middle of the order bat? Then Austin Jackson, who could only secure a minor league deal just a year ago?
Wouldn't mind getting Schwarber, but wouldn't put him in the middle of the lineup until he shows he can handle hitting there and wouldn't deal a GG CF for him.
I think it's understood at this point that you don't want the Sox to sign JDM.
Wouldn't mind getting Schwarber, but wouldn't put him in the middle of the lineup until he shows he can handle hitting there and wouldn't deal a GG CF for him.
I think it's understood at this point that you don't want the Sox to sign JDM.
At that price, I would have been tempted to move Devers across the diamond and start him at third
Agree with BMHH about 1 the one year, though at some point you have to just look at the loss of a draft pick as a dollar amount given the success rate of them as impact players. If the price is say 3-5 million lower or so a year than you had them targeted for it makes sense. I definitely wouldn't want them to make it a habit of overspending while the farm fills back up, but in the short term they need to do it. They have too many chips in.
Hosmer at 4/75 is about the most I'd want to do, but I think he's going to get around 5/110 now unless Santana is the outlier. That's a possibility since he's going to a non-contender and had a lot of teams clamoring for him. Hosmer doesn't appear to have that market as far as I know.
Hosmer at 4/75 is about the most I'd want to do, but I think he's going to get around 5/110 now unless Santana is the outlier. That's a possibility since he's going to a non-contender and had a lot of teams clamoring for him. Hosmer doesn't appear to have that market as far as I know.
Given that he's 4 years younger than Santana and coming off a better year, I'd say that's low on Hosmer. I'd be sort of OK if the Sox did that. It's important to remember that Manny Ramirez signed his 160/8 deal 16 years ago; 20 mil isn't a ton of money anymore, not for the Red Sox anyway.
People fail to understand what a market for a unique commodity is (house, FA player) Its not what the average population would pay for it, its what the most interested person in that population will pay and the seller would accept. Individuals may value a property higher even if the crowd thinks otherwise.
Okay. But my point is that there was a rationale behind this decision last year. At least, from what we know, there is.
The Sox need to get Big Papi on the phone. He told them to sign Encarnacion and raved about Travis Shaw. Maybe they should listen to him
We'll see. I love these types of discussions. I'm going with him making two million more a year than Santana along with the two extra years. He isn't nearly as steady either. If he averages 2.5 wins per season that puts him around 22 per. Maybe he gets a bit more.
You might be right, but I’m thinking someone caves and gives him 6 years (not the Sox, I hope). He’s young enough where you can convince yourself last year was growth and not a fluke.
Apologies if it wasn't clear but I was actually agreeing with you.
Hosmer doesn't have the competitive market Santana did because his asking price is so much higher. If he was willing to consider an under $100m contract that ties him up in the long term I'm strongly guessing that he'd already be signed by now.
Hence my speculation on the 1 year "bet on yourself without taking the huge gamble" opt out scenario which ultimately might make the most sense to him.
I won't speak for him (although I think we are coming from the same place), but I made a similar comparison in another thread and it's not about Hosmer turning into a complete albatross that would be awful and they feel the need to release. The comparison (in my mind at least) is the mindset of "we need this position filled, who's the consensus best player? Let's sign him, damned the cost of overpay!" It seems shortsighted and it's gotten more than one GM in town into trouble before. Again, that's not to say Hosmer will be a black hole, simply that he's going to get more than he's worth and when you add in draft pick and luxury tax considerations, it seems foolish.
Is there a good reason why we haven't signed a hitter yet? Besides getting beaten to the punch or out priced?
What does "beaten to the punch" mean here? Do you think the Sox were like "Let's just call him next week." Or that a FA didn't have his agent reach out to a team with $$$ that might have a need?
Santanas deal is pretty short on years. I bet he might have accepted 5/90 which would be a 18 million AAV but more guaranteed money. 3/60 is actually less than Pablos AAV adjusted for payroll inflation , and he got more years.
If that was the reason according to this we failed
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/11/13/dodgers-mlb-luxury-tax-offenders-2017-top-payrolls/857918001/
If that was the reason according to this we failed
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/11/13/dodgers-mlb-luxury-tax-offenders-2017-top-payrolls/857918001/
We are interested in Boras clients who only sign early when there is an over pay (eg Ellsbury)
Someone else cited this article, does anyone have anything that’s come out in the month since it was printed that confirms it? The only other link I can find is an SB Nation article right after it that cites it as its source and basically just plagiarizes it.
The level of foolishness there might depend on what team is making the offer.
If I'm understanding the new CBA right some teams only have to sacrifice a 3rd rounder.
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In the sense of trying for a certain guy and because of that delaying a solid offer to another guy. So in a way yeah - "Let's just call him next week."
Considering the Sox don’t fit any of those criteria, it seems kind of off the point tho doesn’t it?
The question/my comment was in reference to the Red Sox. Would they only have to sacrifice a 3rd rounder?
I keep reading different things. As a non-LT offender it seems we should, but other places state we qualify for the 2nd/5th tier anyway for reasons I don't quite understand.
That's the only publication repeating that the Sox were over. A bunch of Boston writers responded that it was incorrect.
Per mlb.com:
A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick.
Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2018 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.
http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
Seems pretty clear cut.
I don't think Hosmer (or really anyone) would be as bad as Sandoval.
My point was meant to be about the "there's only one FA at position X, and the Sox are weak at position X, therefore we have no choice but to pursue him" fallacy.
There was lots of that talk here prior to the Price and Sandoval signings, neither of which have worked out well.
I feel that Philly had to offer big money to Santana for him to consider signing with them. Its a mini version of the Nationals' Jayson Werth contract.
The importance here is that the Sox no longer have him as an option.
This makes sense. Add JDM to DH and trade away Hanley at a major discount ($10 - $12 Million) to a team looking for DH or minimalist 1B.
