Wilyer the Coyote: "He's a good player."

[The Gray Eagle]

Wilyer Abreu started cold but then got blazing hot, cooled off and then heated up again. Up and down so far this year but he is now at 283/357/513 for a 141 OPS+ and 2.1 FWAR.
In his short 228-AB career, he is at 294/367/500 for a 137 OPS+ and 2.9 FWAR.
He turn 25 on June 24.

Speier in the Glob with a look at Wilyer:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/28/sports/wilyer-abreu-red-sox/

He used to be a scrawny guy with no power.

In the Astros farm system following the 2017 and 2018 seasons, the outfielder was skinny with virtually no power, but still showed a knack for finding the barrel and drilling line drives.
“I was like, ‘That can play,’ ” said Ben Rosenthal. “The swing was always there.”
So, too, was a good understanding of the strike zone and the kind of pitches he should attack. But at the time, Abreu lacked bat speed and with it, power. In his first three professional seasons from 2017-19, he hit a total of two homers. For him to emerge as a valuable big leaguer, that was going to have to change.

He's now filled out and a lot stronger.

The once-skinny kid is now a barrel-chested 24-year-old who, at 5 feet, 10 inches and 215 pounds, generates the sort of bat speed possessed by power hitters. According to Baseball Savant, Abreu’s average bat speed on swings is 74.8 miles per hour — just behind sluggers Bobby Witt Jr., Austin Riley, Tyler O’Neill, and Carlos Correa, and just in front of Pete Alonso, William Contreras, and Fernando Tatís Jr.
That trait, combined with a good understanding of the strike zone and the pitches he can drive, has helped Abreu emerge as one of the most impactful rookies in the game in 2024 — a notion that received more evidence in an 8-3 Red Sox win over the Orioles on Tuesday.

He’s at the top of the charts in virtually all offensive categories among qualifying rookies, including average (.283), OBP (.357), slugging (.513), and extra-base hits. Abreu combines his aggressive, fast swings with an ability to focus on pitches in the strike zone.
He’s swung at roughly 30 percent of pitches out of the zone, slightly under the league average chase rate of 31 percent, while turning loose on 73 percent of the pitches in the strike zone — above the league rate of 69 percent.
“My whole philosophy is to stay in the zone and to swing at pitches only that I can do damage with,” Abreu said through a translator. “Even though [the homer] wasn’t the greatest contact because I was out in front, that’s what I’m looking to do — hit those pitches that are in the zone.”

Cora is a fan. He stuck with Abreu after his slow start this year.

“He’s a guy that dominates the strike zone,” said Cora, who also repeatedly praised Abreu’s defense and baserunning. “When you do that, and you have a swing like his — it’s very similar to [those of a lot of standout Astros players], it’s close to the body, short to [the ball] and fast — you’re going to be successful.”

“I will keep saying it the whole time,” Cora chuckled after the game. “He’s a good player.”

Seems like not many people realize how strong his arm is. Kiner-Falafel sure found out last September:
https://www.mlb.com/video/oswald-peraza-singles-on-a-sharp-ground-ball-to-left-fielder-wilyer-abreu
Josh Naylor got a taste in April:
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/video/david-fry-flies-into-a-double-play-right-fielder-wilyer-abreu-to-catcher-x6903

This fantasy-based site pitcherlist.com has a mixed take on Wilyer (but at least part of that seems to be due to batting average, which is more relevant in fantasy than in reality):
https://pitcherlist.com/is-it-legit-5-28-24-reynaldo-lopez-wilyer-abreu-and-ryan-mcmahon/

Abreu’s .373 wOBA is 19th among qualified hitters. In 167 PA he has a .284/.359/.500 slash line with a 25.7% K%, and 10.8% BB%. He is 24 years old and FanGraphs gave him just a 35/40 Hit, 45/50 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, and 40 Future Value. Last year he had a .375 wOBA but it was in just 85 PA. What has he been doing that scouts may have missed?
Well, last year he had an extremely high .431 BABIP and this year he has a .366 BABIP, .269 xBABIP, and .232 xAVG. It’s safe to say we can expect his BA to decline, especially with just a 14.3% LD%, 35th percentile ICR, and 25th percentile IPA. He also has a +12 Hit Luck! What about his .216 ISO?

It’s supported by just 5 HR, but 13 doubles and 2 triples. He has a 11.4% Brl% (83rd percentile), 95th percentile FB%, and 77th percentile FB EV. He also has a strong 114.4 Max EV and 87th percentile bat speed. His extreme fly ball tendencies further support a drop in BA, but his good power outputs seem sustainable.

Verdict: Mixed. All evidence points to a precipitous drop in BA, but a legitimate power output and BB%. Because of this, I anticipate a wOBA of around .320-.330 going forward. That’s nothing like it’s been, but is still useful. He has already chipped in 7 SBs so he helps in that department also.

One big question: can he hit lefties? If so, he would be a really valuable player. Even if he doesn't hit better against lefties, he still could be a solid player with his defense, cannon arm and surprising baserunning.

To put in in former Sox terms, he might become something of aTrot Nixon type if he keeps it up offensively. Nixon played a solid RF in Fenway and from age 25 to 31, he had a 119 OPS+. If Wilyer could do something like that, we should all be very happy.
If he ends up a more inconsistent, up-and-down hitter, then he would probably end up more like a Troy O'Leary but with better defense. Still quite useful.
If he ever is able to consistently get on base against LHP, then we really would have an exciting player.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

If nothing else, LHP mashing platoon bats are not necessarily the most difficult guys in the world to find (see: Refsnyder, Rob), so if he can be the strong side of the platoon who adds value defensively and with his legs...I mean, that's a potential 4 win kind of player right there, with a route to more at his peak (whether it comes from improving against LHP, increased power, etc). It's not quite the Killer B's, but with Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela the Sox have some real dynamic and cheap young outfield talent for the next few seasons.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Wilyer Abreu started cold but then got blazing hot, cooled off and then heated up again. Up and down so far this year but he is now at 283/357/513 for a 141 OPS+ and 2.1 FWAR.
In his short 228-AB career, he is at 294/367/500 for a 137 OPS+ and 2.9 FWAR.
He turn 25 on June 24.

Speier in the Glob with a look at Wilyer:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/28/sports/wilyer-abreu-red-sox/

He used to be a scrawny guy with no power.



He's now filled out and a lot stronger.




Cora is a fan. He stuck with Abreu after his slow start this year.


Seems like not many people realize how strong his arm is. Kiner-Falafel sure found out last September:
https://www.mlb.com/video/oswald-peraza-singles-on-a-sharp-ground-ball-to-left-fielder-wilyer-abreu
Josh Naylor got a taste in April:
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/video/david-fry-flies-into-a-double-play-right-fielder-wilyer-abreu-to-catcher-x6903

This fantasy-based site pitcherlist.com has a mixed take on Wilyer (but at least part of that seems to be due to batting average, which is more relevant in fantasy than in reality):
https://pitcherlist.com/is-it-legit-5-28-24-reynaldo-lopez-wilyer-abreu-and-ryan-mcmahon/




One big question: can he hit lefties? If so, he would be a really valuable player. Even if he doesn't hit better against lefties, he still could be a solid player with his defense, cannon arm and surprising baserunning.

To put in in former Sox terms, he might become something of aTrot Nixon type if he keeps it up offensively. Nixon played a solid RF in Fenway and from age 25 to 31, he had a 119 OPS+. If Wilyer could do something like that, we should all be very happy.
If he ends up a more inconsistent, up-and-down hitter, then he would probably end up more like a Troy O'Leary but with better defense. Still quite useful.
If he ever is able to consistently get on base against LHP, then we really would have an exciting player.

He might not be a guy you want to extend a long term extension contract with, but he's definitely a guy to keep for at least 4 or 5 seasons. Even if he's never offered a chance to hit lefties, a platoon with a guy like Refsnyder is fine and it still creates PH opportunities later in the game if he sits against LHP starters and a RHP relief arm enters

 

[nvalvo]

He has 35 PA against lefties in the majors, a meaningless sample.

In the minors he had a mild split, browsing his minor league seasons on BR. I expect we’ll see him more against lefties and I expect he’ll be okay against them.