Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

[InsideTheParker]

I'm not even asking him to name names. All he had to do was to acknowledge the seriousness of the blunders and lay out to the players the consequences for doing so. All he had to say to Johnny was that he was aware of the mistakes, that he was concerned about them, that they could never happen again, and then reinforce to the players the consequences for more basepath mistakes.

I'm confused, because I just watched a long excerpt from Cora's post-game remarks on MLBN, and he talked about the base-running blunders, saying players need to be smart, consider the situation, etc. He clearly was displeased, but in his low-key way. It was on Brian Kenny's show, MLB NOW. He or Rosenthal said that he thinks the players are playing urgently because they know it's unlikely the starter will go five and feel the need to put up runs. Of course, that's all a matter of opinion. But Cora made it clear in that excerpt that the MO needed to change. Rosenthal blamed Bloom for not getting Rizzo, but didn't explain what players he should have given up to get him.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I'm confused, because I just watched a long excerpt from Cora's post-game remarks on MLBN, and he talked about the base-running blunders, saying players need to be smart, consider the situation, etc. He clearly was displeased, but in his low-key way. It was on Brian Kenny's show, MLB NOW. He or Rosenthal said that he thinks the players are playing urgently because they know it's unlikely the starter will go five and feel the need to put up runs. Of course, that's all a matter of opinion. But Cora made it clear in that excerpt that the MO needed to change. Rosenthal blamed Bloom for not getting Rizzo, but didn't explain what players he should have given up to get him.

I am referring to this clip, where he totally blows off Johnny Miller's question about the horrible baserunning. This is not a manager showing any type of concern about it:

View: https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/1424196138580779008?s=20

 

[InsideTheParker]

Well, I guess he kept his word about talking about it later, judging by the long excerpt on MLBN.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His initial reaction blowing it off as a concern is what bothers me. Miller is well known for asking direct, blunt questions and I'm glad he did so here. Cora's reaction isn't encouraging to me, especially since he did this all of 2019 as well.

 

[johnnywayback]

You know, this team has an ownership group that spends more than almost any other in the game and has won multiple world championships, a front office led by someone who is widely regarded as one of the smartest young execs in the game, and a manager who won 108 games in his first season and is also widely regarded as one of the best in the game. And yet there's a segment of the fan base that, when they see decisions they don't agree with, refuse to believe anything other than the most sinister explanation for those decisions.

When the ownership group traded Mookie, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: they didn't feel like they could take the risk of him hitting free agency and then walking away for nothing. Bullshit, these fans insist, they were just too cheap to pay the luxury tax!

When Bloom "only" got a guy who's hit 25 bombs this year, plus a couple of depth arms, at the deadline, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: it was one of the most ridiculous seller's markets in recent history, and he didn't feel like the team was in the right place in the competitive cycle to overpay for a rental. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must be in over his head, or obsessed with prospect-hoarding, or just afraid of being bold.

When Cora declined an opportunity to angrily throw veteran players under the bus in one of several interviews he does after a tough game, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: he was still thinking about how to address it and didn't feel like he needed to air all the clubhouse conversations publicly. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must just not care about winning.

Again, I get it if you think the owners should have risked free agency with Mookie, or Bloom should have taken a huge chunk out of our prospect capital to get Rizzo instead of Schwarber, or Cora should have had Marwin Gonzalez drawn and quartered on the NESN pre-game show. But, to paraphrase a favorite Joe Biden-ism, it's bizarre to me that so many fans leap to attack the decision-makers' motives instead of questioning their judgment.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

When the ownership group traded Mookie, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: they didn't feel like they could take the risk of him hitting free agency and then walking away for nothing. Bullshit, these fans insist, they were just too cheap to pay the luxury tax!

When ownership shows you who they are, believe them. They said themselves they traded Mookie for the infamous "financial flexibility." They spoke very often of wanting to get below the luxury tax. They are at least as big a team as the Dodgers and could afford nearly any payroll but they chose to cut back JUST when their home grown superstar was up for a new deal and wanted to be paid fairly.

An ownership group worth billions, that sells out the park constantly and has one of the largest fanbases in the world, claimed poverty. And they claimed it before the pandemic hit as the trade was done earlier than that. You're damn right I'm questioning their motives.

Mookie, BTW, is putting up a 144 OPS+ season while playing his usual exemplary defense. Good thing the Sox are saving all that money with Renfroe (103 OPS+) in RF this year, it's not like the team has had an awful time scoring runs over the last 6 weeks or anything.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You know, this team has an ownership group that spends more than almost any other in the game and has won multiple world championships, a front office led by someone who is widely regarded as one of the smartest young execs in the game, and a manager who won 108 games in his first season and is also widely regarded as one of the best in the game. And yet there's a segment of the fan base that, when they see decisions they don't agree with, refuse to believe anything other than the most sinister explanation for those decisions.

When the ownership group traded Mookie, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: they didn't feel like they could take the risk of him hitting free agency and then walking away for nothing. Bullshit, these fans insist, they were just too cheap to pay the luxury tax!

When Bloom "only" got a guy who's hit 25 bombs this year, plus a couple of depth arms, at the deadline, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: it was one of the most ridiculous seller's markets in recent history, and he didn't feel like the team was in the right place in the competitive cycle to overpay for a rental. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must be in over his head, or obsessed with prospect-hoarding, or just afraid of being bold.

When Cora declined an opportunity to angrily throw veteran players under the bus in one of several interviews he does after a tough game, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: he was still thinking about how to address it and didn't feel like he needed to air all the clubhouse conversations publicly. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must just not care about winning.

Again, I get it if you think the owners should have risked free agency with Mookie, or Bloom should have taken a huge chunk out of our prospect capital to get Rizzo instead of Schwarber, or Cora should have had Marwin Gonzalez drawn and quartered on the NESN pre-game show. But, to paraphrase a favorite Joe Biden-ism, it's bizarre to me that so many fans leap to attack the decision-makers' motives instead of questioning their judgment.

It's been 20+ years since Rick Pitino annointed Boston fans as the "Fellowship of the Miserable" and despite championships from all four local teams since then, there are still fans that fit that description. Either they just can't be fans any other way, or they just feel better if they can find something negative to focus on.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It's been 20+ years since Rick Pitino annointed Boston fans as the "Fellowship of the Miserable" and despite championships from all four local teams since then, there are still fans that fit that description. Either they just can't be fans any other way, or they just feel better if they can find something negative to focus on.

I'm sorry that it bothers you that it bothers me that after a wasted 24-36 season last year the local baseball team lost EIGHT GAMES in the standings in a month and is rapidly falling out of the playoff picture.

This isn't nitpicking a 108 win team like Felger and Mazz did throughout 2018, this is looking on in horror as the entire team collapses.

 

[scottyno]

When ownership shows you who they are, believe them. They said themselves they traded Mookie for the infamous "financial flexibility." They spoke very often of wanting to get below the luxury tax. They are at least as big a team as the Dodgers and could afford nearly any payroll but they chose to cut back JUST when their home grown superstar was up for a new deal and wanted to be paid fairly.

An ownership group worth billions, that sells out the park constantly and has one of the largest fanbases in the world, claimed poverty. And they claimed it before the pandemic hit as the trade was done earlier than that. You're damn right I'm questioning their motives.

The Dodgers cut back to stay below the luxury tax until 2021, guess they were claiming poverty too. It's also been litigated here dozens of times that resetting the tax isn't just about money and that every single mlb team does it.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Dodgers cut back to stay below the luxury tax until 2021, guess they were claiming poverty too. It's also been litigated here dozens of times that resetting the tax isn't just about money and that every single mlb team does it.

The Dodgers then spent their money on players, unlike the Sox. And they did claim poverty, they claimed it a lot during the McCourt years which was utterly risible.

The excuses for staying below the threshold have always been easy-outs for owners looking to maximize profit. It's nonsense and always has been.

 

[johnnywayback]

When ownership shows you who they are, believe them. They said themselves they traded Mookie for the infamous "financial flexibility." They spoke very often of wanting to get below the luxury tax. They are at least as big a team as the Dodgers and could afford nearly any payroll but they chose to cut back JUST when their home grown superstar was up for a new deal and wanted to be paid fairly.

An ownership group worth billions, that sells out the park constantly and has one of the largest fanbases in the world, claimed poverty. And they claimed it before the pandemic hit as the trade was done earlier than that. You're damn right I'm questioning their motives.

If you think they should be willing to run an unlimited payroll every single year and ignore the crippling financial and competitive penalties that entails -- unlike every single one of the other 29 teams, including the Dodgers, who stayed below the luxury tax until this year so they could go over in a big way now -- I don't know what to tell you.

But if you're not saying that the Red Sox should ignore the rules that constrain the behavior of every single other team, you can't say they're guided by an unwillingness to spend money. The fact is that the Red Sox are second in the majors in CBT payroll. And I don't understand how you could look at their remarks about the luxury tax and interpret them as "Too rich for our blood!" and not "We need to be strategic about the way we allocate resources given these constraints that every team faces."

I mean:

"The baseball organizations that we compete against have become much more strategic and thoughtful about how and when they spend their resources in their question for titles," Henry said in prepared remarks. "We cannot shy away from tough decisions required to aggressively compete for the World Series. That's what led to this trade."

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If you think they should be willing to run an unlimited payroll every single year and ignore the crippling financial and competitive penalties that entails -- unlike every single one of the other 29 teams, including the Dodgers, who stayed below the luxury tax until this year so they could go over in a big way now -- I don't know what to tell you.

But if you're not saying that the Red Sox should ignore the rules that constrain the behavior of every single other team, you can't say they're guided by an unwillingness to spend money. The fact is that the Red Sox are second in the majors in CBT payroll. And I don't understand how you could look at their remarks about the luxury tax and interpret them as "Too rich for our blood!" and not "We need to be strategic about the way we allocate resources given these constraints that every team faces."

I mean:

"The baseball organizations that we compete against have become much more strategic and thoughtful about how and when they spend their resources in their question for titles," Henry said in prepared remarks. "We cannot shy away from tough decisions required to aggressively compete for the World Series. That's what led to this trade."

Henry is covering his ass there. They traded the one guy they couldn't lose and they did so because they found the holy gospel of financial flexibility at the exact time Mookie's contract was up. That was awfully convenient.

Henry is lying. They had just won a WS with Dombrowski spending a ton; all of a sudden it can't work any more? Utter nonsense. All of a sudden they pretend to care about the penalties? Come on.

They saw that TB was playing well with a miniscule payroll and figured they'd try the same. Period, end of story. Never mind that Tampa hasn't actually won a WS. That was irrelevant to them. They hired Bloom to do exactly that. Problem is, that TB market is very different from the Boston market and the same approach won't work here.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I'm getting heated so will step aside from the convo for a while. If they lose three to Tampa this week though, we can revisit the issue.

 

[scottyno]

The Dodgers then spent their money on players, unlike the Sox. And they did claim poverty, they claimed it a lot during the McCourt years which was utterly risible.

The excuses for staying below the threshold have always been easy-outs for owners looking to maximize profit. It's nonsense and always has been.

The Sox have spent a lot on players, and still are. I mean, they're doing the exact same thing the Dodgers did really, they just aren't at the same contention window so going all in this year like LA did doesn't make much sense. The 2018 and 19 Dodgers stayed under the tax (2020 there was no tax), this year is the first time they'll be paying it since 2017, that has nothing at all to do with McCourt. The Sox a few years ago were where the Dodgers are now.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Going over the tax line eventually really costs you in the draft (and I think international draft as well?). That's why most teams are treating it as a salary cap, not necessarily the bottom line.

The Dodgers then spent their money on players, unlike the Sox. And they did claim poverty, they claimed it a lot during the McCourt years which was utterly risible.

The excuses for staying below the threshold have always been easy-outs for owners looking to maximize profit. It's nonsense and always has been.

They have almost 50M tied up in Sale and Eovaldi. When have they not spent at least up to the tax line?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm sorry that it bothers you that it bothers me that after a wasted 24-36 season last year the local baseball team lost EIGHT GAMES in the standings in a month and is rapidly falling out of the playoff picture.

This isn't nitpicking a 108 win team like Felger and Mazz did throughout 2018, this is looking on in horror as the entire team collapses.

Why are you taking my comment so personally? I wasn't speaking of you specifically. Just extrapolating on johnny's overall point.

I can't claim to read every single post around here, but you seem to have been conspicuously quiet this year...right up until the team hit its worst skid of the season. Maybe it's just coincidence.

As has been pointed out, the Rays took a nosedive back in late June (4-12 record), going from 3 games up in the division to 4.5 back in about 18 days. A month later, they're where they are now, with the best record in the AL. The Sox' skid might be a slump like that, just poorly timed to coincide with the trade deadline that likely wasn't going to slow it down no matter what they did. Maybe come September 1, they'll be riding high again. Or not.

 

[moondog80]

Most people had them around 84 wins IIRC. Their current slide is having them stare down that target perfectly. The were up 4 1/2 games on Tampa on July 5th and today they are 4 games back. They have 3 games with Tampa this week and are playing horrible baseball. So, no, I do not think they will be finishing above where people expected. Tampa could easily end their season this week.

Again, if you're fine with them leading the division, the GM not adding any help at the deadline and watching them crater horribly afterwards, by all means enjoy the season. We all enjoy baseball our own way. Me, I prefer when my team doesn't cry poverty, trade its best player, punt an entire season, then sit idly by as their overachieving team crashes hard to earth because the GM doesn't bother adding anything useful at the trade deadline.

Their pythag at the break showed they were playing above their real numbers. An org and GM actually committed to winning would recognize that and add to the team in a meaningful way in areas of need, in this case 1B and RP. Bloom picked up an injured non-1Bman and two lousy relievers. I'm waiting for the inevitable JWH/Werner presser where they claim satisfaction in the year because they did not exceed the penalty threshold, which as we all know is the real purpose of owning a baseball team.

Please, please, please...can we get over Mookie Betts?

They did not trade Mookie Betts because they were worried about him in 2021. They did it because they were worried about 2025, when he will be 32 and have nearly 260 million left on his contract. Maybe that was the wrong move. But either way, it was two years ago, he's gone and not coming back. Get over it. If the ownership group that has done nothing but spend money since taking over and won FOUR World Series titles hasn't earned some benefit of the doubt, the WEEI Whiner Line might be a more suitable forum.

 

[chrisfont9]

As has been pointed out, the Rays took a nosedive back in late June (4-12 record), going from 3 games up in the division to 4.5 back in about 18 days. A month later, they're where they are now, with the best record in the AL. The Sox' skid might be a slump like that, just poorly timed to coincide with the trade deadline that likely wasn't going to slow it down no matter what they did. Maybe come September 1, they'll be riding high again. Or not.

Poorly timed, but also with some guys banged up, and maybe inevitable as guys like Perez gets too many trips around the league and Richards reinvents himself on the fly. Then they do make a deadline move for the offense, except the guy (who's the right guy for this team) is overcoming a groin injury. And the guy they didn't get -- possibly because he's a covid denier, and we can see where that is headed -- goes off and hits a few homers. Anyway, timing and injuries, both of which will pass, with patience. And the schedule will get better too.

 

[chrisfont9]

Please, please, please...can we get over Mookie Betts?

They did not trade Mookie Betts because they were worried about him in 2021. They did it because they were worried about 2025, when he will be 32 and have nearly 260 million left on his contract. Maybe that was the wrong move. But either way, it was two years ago, he's gone and not coming back. Get over it. If the ownership group that has done nothing but spend money since taking over and won FOUR World Series titles hasn't earned some benefit of the doubt, the WEEI Whiner Line might be a more suitable forum.

His dWAR is a mere 0.2 this season. Just sayin.

 

[ledsox]

Everyone can catch the postgame here and reach their own conclusions as to how accurate your account is.

Thanks for that. Cora didn’t just shrug it off, he said he would deal with it tomorrow. We don’t have any idea what is said behind closed doors but it seemed to me he recognized the players were getting ahead of themselves. It’s totally nit picky to go after Cora for this response.

Mental mistakes are part of the game. There don’t need to be consequences every time one occurs but certainly giving away outs needs to be addressed asap.

 

[scottyno]

They have almost 50M tied up in Sale and Eovaldi. When have they not spent at least up to the tax line?

Sometime when the Yawkee group still owned the team

 

[cantor44]

With all my bitching and moaning about the trade deadline activity etc., and my anticipation that the team was about to go into the slide that has just happened (me and everyone's brother I guess), that's a shit ton of negativity, justified or not.

So how 'bout some positivity? ... I'm a little hopeful a rebound might be coming. Natural pendulum swings and all, but also: despite the SSS I think the performance of the bats yesterday WAS promising. JD looked completely different. Lots of hard contact by many folks -- maybe a sign of revitalization. Verdugo had clearly come out if his funk prior, too. Sale and Houck now being in the rotation I think will have a huge impact. Pivetta looked great against an elite offense.

Generally, I think the bats will come out of it, and the improved starting pitching will should save the pen a bit (worry there is that they're already fried).

The bottom of the line up still hosting the likes of Dalbec and Gonzalez will continue to be a problem. The solution there lies in Arroyo and Schwarb, but who the hell knows when we'll see either two.

Probably the team plays at a .550 clip the rest of the way .... health provided that is. (pretty please with a cherry on top)

 

[johnnywayback]

Okay, I mean, there's really no point in arguing with you if you believe this stuff, so I'll stop. But, for the record:

Henry is lying. They had just won a WS with Dombrowski spending a ton; all of a sudden it can't work any more? Utter nonsense. All of a sudden they pretend to care about the penalties? Come on.

Every single team -- all 30 of them -- care about the penalties, and the reason I am so sure of that is that every single team treats the penalties as a constraint. There is not one single team that does what you are so upset that the Red Sox are not doing.

They saw that TB was playing well with a miniscule payroll and figured they'd try the same. Period, end of story.

The Red Sox do not have a miniscule payroll. They have the highest payroll of any team other than the Dodgers even in this, the year they are resetting the luxury tax so that they can blow past it in subsequent years, which they have said on the record they will do.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The Red Sox do not have a miniscule payroll. They have the highest payroll of any team other than the Dodgers even in this, the year they are resetting the luxury tax so that they can blow past it in subsequent years, which they have said on the record they will do.

Just a minor nit, but they did reset the tax penalties last season, so that isn't their motivation this year. I think they would exceed the threshold this season for the right player. Like, for example, if they had the prospect capital to acquire a significantly impactful player like Scherzer or Rizzo, I suspect they'd have gone over for them. But given the prospect cost, and the comparative cost of Schwarber who enables them to stay under the tax, they went in that direction.

I think their motivation with regard to the luxury tax is that since it compounds every year they're over, and they anticipate an even stronger team in the next couple years, they want their next contending window to line up with the luxury tax window as much as possible. If they see it to be most efficient to only be in the penalty for 2-3 years at a time, why start that clock now if they see the prime portion of that contending window as a year (or two) away?

 

[YTF]

With all my bitching and moaning about the trade deadline activity etc., and my anticipation that the team was about to go into the slide that has just happened (me and everyone's brother I guess), that's a shit ton of negativity, justified or not.

So how 'bout some positivity? ... I'm a little hopeful a rebound might be coming. Natural pendulum swings and all, but also: despite the SSS I think the performance of the bats yesterday WAS promising. JD looked completely different. Lots of hard contact by many folks -- maybe a sign of revitalization. Verdugo had clearly come out if his funk prior, too. Sale and Houck now being in the rotation I think will have a huge impact. Pivetta looked great against an elite offense.

Generally, I think the bats will come out of it, and the improved starting pitching will should save the pen a bit (worry there is that they're already fried).

The bottom of the line up still hosting the likes of Dalbec and Gonzalez will continue to be a problem. The solution there lies in Arroyo and Schwarb, but who the hell knows when we'll see either two.

Probably the team plays at a .550 clip the rest of the way .... health provided that is. (pretty please with a cherry on top)

The team has 48 games left. Roughly half against playoff contenders (most of those with TB and MFY) the rest against some pretty poor teams. It's cliche', but generally speaking if you just keep winning series you're going to be in good shape. The problem is that they're quickly running out of series as we're now more than 2/3 of the way through the season. IMO this team is really going to need to make hay against the lesser teams and take the majority of the series remaining with Tampa and NY because both of those teams also have some soft spots in their remaining games. The pitching should get a boost and if the hitting can find it's way they can get into the post season. They've dug themselves a bit of a hole recently, let's see if they are good enough to dig their way out. And definitely fingers crossed for good health as it's going to take everyone on this roster to play at their best.

 

[Max Power]

Red Sox didn't "just win the World Series" when they traded Mookie and fired Dombrowski. 2019 really happened and the team was even worse than this year's. That gets conveniently forgotten every time another "Mookie would have made this team a World Series winner" whinefest crops up. One player never makes a difference in baseball and the organization as a whole needed a change.

 

[InsideTheParker]

By the way, the Rays lost 7 in a row in mid-June and five in a row to end June and begin July. They have recovered nicely.
Edit: I see this has already been mentioned, perhaps more than once, but I'll let it stand.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I have been busy but was someone complaining about the ownership that has brought four World Series titles to Boston in the past 20 years?

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

Every single team -- all 30 of them -- care about the penalties, and the reason I am so sure of that is that every single team treats the penalties as a constraint. There is not one single team that does what you are so upset that the Red Sox are not doing.

Given that the teams created these penalties as part of a strategy to suppress players' salaries, maybe the question of whether or not they constrain the ownership's ability to build a winning team is a red herring.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I have been busy but was someone complaining about the ownership that has brought four World Series titles to Boston in the past 20 years?

And the manager of the most recent one.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

And the manager of the most recent one.

I expect we will soon find out who the more qualified manager available out there might be, and what teams have better ownership

 

[E5 Yaz]

I expect we will soon find out who the more qualified manager available out there might be, and what teams have better ownership

Well, the thing is, they've had a bad two-week stretch ... so, you know, off with their heads

 

[scottyno]

Given that the teams created these penalties as part of a strategy to suppress players' salaries, maybe the question of whether or not they constrain the ownership's ability to build a winning team is a red herring.

And to create *parity where team salaries are at least sort of kind of close to each other, when without those penalties the dodgers would be spending even more money since they take in 2-10 times the tv revenue of any other team every year, like the yankees used to be

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

And to create parody where team salaries are at least sort of kind of close to each other, when without those penalties the dodgers would be spending even more money since they take in 2-10 times the tv revenue of any other team every year, like the yankees used to be

More like parrot-y, if you know what I mean, but parody works, too.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

I think that both the cheers that this team was going to coast to the postseason in June and the current doom and gloom are overstated.

The way I see it, there have been three phases to this season. I'm not cherrypicking these dates, so I'm sure a starker contrast could be drawn if the dates were chosen more intentionally.

• Through the end of May, the team had scored 269 runs and allowed 224 and went 32-21 (pythag: 30.9-22.1, or +.0208 per game)
• Between the end of May and the ASG, the team scored 195 runs and allowed 183 and went 23-15 (pythag: 20.1-17.9, or +.0763 per game)
• From the ASG until now, the team scored 79 runs and allowed 102 runs and went 10-12 (pythag: 8.5-13.5, or +.0682 per game)

I've been watching Fangraph's BaseRuns pretty closely throughout the season, and my recollection is that during the first phase of the season the Sox weren't really outperforming their pythag in a substantial way. IIRC there were times when they were a game or two up, but nothing alarming.

The overperformance largely occurred during the second third, where the Sox put up a really nice record against stiff competition despite having a relatively flat run differential. The overperformance continued in late July, but in the last two weeks or so the team has really cratered and the overall overperformance in this third stretch isn't quite as extreme. For example, since July 28th the sox are 3-10 while their pythag has them at 2.67-10.33, or +.0254 per game played, similar to the first third of the year.

One can make two basic arguments that this team is going to fail: that the team has been far outperforming its pythag and is due for a hard regression (which is starting to play out), or that the team's true talent level is well below that of what we've seen over the course of the season in aggregate and thus is due for a hard regression.

So that begs the question as posed in the thread title: which portion of the season is the "real" Red Sox?

Through the end of May, the Sox were playing at a level that could compete with any team in baseball. Since then, they've played like an 80-ish win team.

Let's look at some more numbers, starting with the hitting by wOBA:

• Vaz: .287 (pre-June)/.284(June to present)
• Plawecki: .305/.383
• Santana: SS/.219
• Dalbec: .279/.286
• Kike: .299/.362
• Arroyo: .309/.373
• Gonzalez: .259/.253
• X: .398/.348
• Devers: .391/.381
• Verdugo: .346/.322
• Renfroe: .320/.327
• Franchy: .222/.267
• JD: .415/.338
• Duran: -/.244

JD, Devers and X carried the team in April and May, supported by Verdugo and Renfroe. Since then, Devers has kept it up but X and especially JD have cratered (particularly since the ASG). Meanwhile Arroyo, Kike and (strangely) Plawecki have really stepped it up. Unfortunately Arroyo got injured, so the improvements from Plawecki and especially Kike haven't been enough to offset the decline of X and JD.

Franchy, Gonzalez, Dalbec, Santana, Vaz, and now Duran have continued to be awful.

If X and JD can play to their season averages going forward, this team could look really scary on offense. If JD plays more to his career norms (which could easily fall in the .380-.420 wOBA range) and you factor in Schwarber then I think the lineup is competitive with anyone else out there. It's far from guaranteed, but there are plenty of ways that this offense could get back to doing what it did in April and May.

Let's look at the pitching staff:

• Starters in April/May: 3.37 FIP, 4.2 ERA
• Starters since June 1: 4.5 FIP, 5.07 ERA
• Relievers in April/May: 3.61 FIP, 3.73 ERA
• Relievers since June 1: 4.13 FIP, 3.8 ERA

The variation in the bullpen is pretty mild. Cora has been using the worst relievers a lot more recently to give the top performers some relative recuperation, and that's going to show up in the numbers. But I don't think we'll be seeing much of them in the playoffs if the team gets there.

The starters have undeniably been much worse.

• Eovaldi: 2.36 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 4.01 ERA | 3.14 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 4.13 ERA
• Rodriguez: 3.74 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 5.64 ERA | 3.02 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 5.02 ERA
• Pivetta: 3.45 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 3.86 ERA | 4.81 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.73 ERA
• Perez: 3.66 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 3.55 ERA | HORRIBLE
• Richards: 3.89 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 3.83 ERA | HORRIBLE

If you want to make a case for why the team was overperforming in April and May, I think here is where you will find your best argument. Pivetta, Perez and Richards were all pitching WAY ahead of their xFIPs. Unless there was some special sauce that was helping this trio suppress home runs, it was inevitable that the wheels would come off the bus. The sticky stuff crackdown seems to have exacerbated that further for Richards and perhaps for Perez. Both of them have absolutely fallen off a cliff and are just not major league caliber pitchers at the moment.

Pivetta is a middle case. His performance has tanked, but his xFIP is actually a hair better than it was in April/May. He's not going back to that 3.86 ERA, but he could be a serviceable 5th starter.

Eovaldi has tailed off a bit in his FIP but his xFIP and ERA are right around where they were. He just had a putrid start against an incredible offensive team. Not sure that it's worth extrapolating anything from that.

E-Rod is a very weird case. His peripherals have been great all year but his BABIP luck has been awful and thus he is one of the biggest ERA underperformers in baseball this year. Since June 1 his peripherals have actually gotten better, and his ERA has improved but not by as much as one would hope. He is a decent bet to improve over the course of the rest of the season.

The good news is that we have Houck and Sale coming in to take over for Perez and Richards. Will the rotation as a whole perform like it did in April/May? Probably not. But it could be close, and there's a reasonable scenario where the rotation ends up in a better place from a playoffs perspective. If Rodriguez fixes whatever his problem is (or just gets lucky), Eovaldi keeps doing what he is doing, and Sale/Houck hit their potentials it could be a very competitive rotation.

TL;DR: The Sox are not looking great now, but those who are saying that the team's current performance is reflective of a regression that was inevitably coming all season wrong are overstating their case. The team was legitimately performing at a very high level through the end of May, and recapturing that level is absolutely plausible. If X and JD start hitting again (plus/minus Schwarber and/or Arroyo) and the second half performers like Kike keep doing their thing, then the offense in the last month and a half could actually be better than it was in April and May. The pitching staff as a whole is probably not going to return to April/May levels, but if Sale and Houck can do their thing we might have a more top heavy staff that is better suited for the playoffs than what we had in April and May. If the Red Sox play at an April/May level they have a real shot at the division and a very good chance at a wild card even if they don't overperform their pythag.

 

[Coachster]

Do we want Josh Reddick? He’s available, and unlike our pal Mr. Schwarber, he can play right now. I don’t need to see Duran till next spring.

Do we want Luis Gonzalez? The White Sox released him. He’s out for the year, but would be a terrific minor league option.

Let’s do something to shake it up.

 

[scottyno]

Do we want Josh Reddick? He’s available, and unlike our pal Mr. Schwarber, he can play right now. I don’t need to see Duran till next spring.

Do we want Luis Gonzalez? The White Sox released him. He’s out for the year, but would be a terrific minor league option.

Let’s do something to shake it up.

Duran at least has 1 useful skill right now he can run, Reddick has none, no thanks

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

And to create *parity where team salaries are at least sort of kind of close to each other, when without those penalties the dodgers would be spending even more money since they take in 2-10 times the tv revenue of any other team every year, like the yankees used to be

Is there parity in MLB? Can you think of any other ways in which it might be achieved?

 

[MuzzyField]

Given that the teams created these penalties as part of a strategy to suppress players' salaries, maybe the question of whether or not they constrain the ownership's ability to build a winning team is a red herring.

Did the "teams" unilaterally impose this structure and these penalties or did the most powerful union in professional sports agree to this through collective bargaining?

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

Did the "teams" unilaterally impose this structure and these penalties or did the most powerful union in professional sports agree to this through collective bargaining?

You’re absolutely right to bring up the complicity of the MLBPA in exploitative labor practices, their treatment of minor leaguers and pre-arb players is shameful.

 

[MuzzyField]

You’re absolutely right to bring up the complicity of the MLBPA in exploitative labor practices, their treatment of minor leaguers and pre-arb players is shameful.

The treatment of minor league players is criminal. I'm glad there are less teams. The valuation growth of many minor league franchises and the cost to build the cathedrals they play in is obscene in comparison to how the players are treated and compensated. At least with this consolidation much of the mistreatment can be directly traced back to the parent clubs who now own many of their minor league teams.

 

[scottyno]

Is there parity in MLB? Can you think of any other ways in which it might be achieved?

14 teams have won a ring in the last 20 years, 20 teams have won a pennant, and nearly every team has played in at least one LCS in the 2000s, so yeah there's a lot more than there was when the Yankees or Braves made the WS almost every year

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

The treatment of minor league players is criminal. I'm glad there are less teams. The valuation growth of many minor league franchises and the cost to build the cathedrals they play in is obscene in comparison to how the players are treated and compensated. At least with this consolidation much of the mistreatment can be directly traced back to the parent clubs who now own many of their minor league teams.

i hate consolidation because it essentially means that there’s less baseball in America—Indy leagues simply won’t be equivalent in terms of interest and civic commitment—but given the antitrust exemption I agree with you about direct ownership, it’s foolish to pretend that Red Sox and Sea Dogs don’t work for the same boss.

 

[cantor44]

You know, this team has an ownership group that spends more than almost any other in the game and has won multiple world championships, a front office led by someone who is widely regarded as one of the smartest young execs in the game, and a manager who won 108 games in his first season and is also widely regarded as one of the best in the game. And yet there's a segment of the fan base that, when they see decisions they don't agree with, refuse to believe anything other than the most sinister explanation for those decisions.

When the ownership group traded Mookie, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: they didn't feel like they could take the risk of him hitting free agency and then walking away for nothing. Bullshit, these fans insist, they were just too cheap to pay the luxury tax!

When Bloom "only" got a guy who's hit 25 bombs this year, plus a couple of depth arms, at the deadline, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: it was one of the most ridiculous seller's markets in recent history, and he didn't feel like the team was in the right place in the competitive cycle to overpay for a rental. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must be in over his head, or obsessed with prospect-hoarding, or just afraid of being bold.

When Cora declined an opportunity to angrily throw veteran players under the bus in one of several interviews he does after a tough game, there was a perfectly sensible explanation: he was still thinking about how to address it and didn't feel like he needed to air all the clubhouse conversations publicly. Bullshit, these fans insist, he must just not care about winning.

Again, I get it if you think the owners should have risked free agency with Mookie, or Bloom should have taken a huge chunk out of our prospect capital to get Rizzo instead of Schwarber, or Cora should have had Marwin Gonzalez drawn and quartered on the NESN pre-game show. But, to paraphrase a favorite Joe Biden-ism, it's bizarre to me that so many fans leap to attack the decision-makers' motives instead of questioning their judgment.

First, I wanna say that I have been very critical of Bloom at this deadline and indeed used words like "bold." But I don't question his motives. I think he wants to win. I do question his judgement in this case. And we know all humans, and all leaders, even the great ones, have quirks and flaws and biases. Bloom is certainly better equipped for the job than I am and way more informed, but that doesn't mean he's perfect and above criticism, nor does it mean he doesn't have some blind spots in his strategic thinking. Indeed, there are some insights someone OUTSIDE of a social system can make better than someone inside it. It's why writer's need editors and actors need directors and directors need critics (critics, who, BTW, could never actually make a movie or a play but who are very good at critiquing them and have every right to do so).

Next, the team's success under the Henry ownership group can't be used as a trump card against any and all criticism. Part of being a Boston sports fan is passion, and part of that passion includes criticizing the dudes in charge. Can it go too far? Absolutely. And if it slides into scapegoating or anything of the kind, that's unfair. But do the championships utterly inoculate against criticism? No. And if you do criticize are you necessarily ungrateful (or paranoid as your email seems to suggest)? No. (I mean, maybe sometimes, but not necessarily.)

This is a sports forum. Debate and counter-debate. There's gonna be criticism, even with the 4 world championships. That's okay, no?

 

[cantor44]

I think that both the cheers that this team was going to coast to the postseason in June and the current doom and gloom are overstated.

The way I see it, there have been three phases to this season. I'm not cherrypicking these dates, so I'm sure a starker contrast could be drawn if the dates were chosen more intentionally.

• Through the end of May, the team had scored 269 runs and allowed 224 and went 32-21 (pythag: 30.9-22.1, or +.0208 per game)
• Between the end of May and the ASG, the team scored 195 runs and allowed 183 and went 23-15 (pythag: 20.1-17.9, or +.0763 per game)
• From the ASG until now, the team scored 79 runs and allowed 102 runs and went 10-12 (pythag: 8.5-13.5, or +.0682 per game)

I've been watching Fangraph's BaseRuns pretty closely throughout the season, and my recollection is that during the first phase of the season the Sox weren't really outperforming their pythag in a substantial way. IIRC there were times when they were a game or two up, but nothing alarming.

The overperformance largely occurred during the second third, where the Sox put up a really nice record against stiff competition despite having a relatively flat run differential. The overperformance continued in late July, but in the last two weeks or so the team has really cratered and the overall overperformance in this third stretch isn't quite as extreme. For example, since July 28th the sox are 3-10 while their pythag has them at 2.67-10.33, or +.0254 per game played, similar to the first third of the year.

One can make two basic arguments that this team is going to fail: that the team has been far outperforming its pythag and is due for a hard regression (which is starting to play out), or that the team's true talent level is well below that of what we've seen over the course of the season in aggregate and thus is due for a hard regression.

So that begs the question as posed in the thread title: which portion of the season is the "real" Red Sox?

Through the end of May, the Sox were playing at a level that could compete with any team in baseball. Since then, they've played like an 80-ish win team.

Let's look at some more numbers, starting with the hitting by wOBA:

• Vaz: .287 (pre-June)/.284(June to present)
• Plawecki: .305/.383
• Santana: SS/.219
• Dalbec: .279/.286
• Kike: .299/.362
• Arroyo: .309/.373
• Gonzalez: .259/.253
• X: .398/.348
• Devers: .391/.381
• Verdugo: .346/.322
• Renfroe: .320/.327
• Franchy: .222/.267
• JD: .415/.338
• Duran: -/.244

JD, Devers and X carried the team in April and May, supported by Verdugo and Renfroe. Since then, Devers has kept it up but X and especially JD have cratered (particularly since the ASG). Meanwhile Arroyo, Kike and (strangely) Plawecki have really stepped it up. Unfortunately Arroyo got injured, so the improvements from Plawecki and especially Kike haven't been enough to offset the decline of X and JD.

Franchy, Gonzalez, Dalbec, Santana, Vaz, and now Duran have continued to be awful.

If X and JD can play to their season averages going forward, this team could look really scary on offense. If JD plays more to his career norms (which could easily fall in the .380-.420 wOBA range) and you factor in Schwarber then I think the lineup is competitive with anyone else out there. It's far from guaranteed, but there are plenty of ways that this offense could get back to doing what it did in April and May.

Let's look at the pitching staff:

• Starters in April/May: 3.37 FIP, 4.2 ERA
• Starters since June 1: 4.5 FIP, 5.07 ERA
• Relievers in April/May: 3.61 FIP, 3.73 ERA
• Relievers since June 1: 4.13 FIP, 3.8 ERA

The variation in the bullpen is pretty mild. Cora has been using the worst relievers a lot more recently to give the top performers some relative recuperation, and that's going to show up in the numbers. But I don't think we'll be seeing much of them in the playoffs if the team gets there.

The starters have undeniably been much worse.

• Eovaldi: 2.36 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 4.01 ERA | 3.14 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 4.13 ERA
• Rodriguez: 3.74 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 5.64 ERA | 3.02 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 5.02 ERA
• Pivetta: 3.45 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 3.86 ERA | 4.81 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.73 ERA
• Perez: 3.66 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 3.55 ERA | HORRIBLE
• Richards: 3.89 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 3.83 ERA | HORRIBLE

If you want to make a case for why the team was overperforming in April and May, I think here is where you will find your best argument. Pivetta, Perez and Richards were all pitching WAY ahead of their xFIPs. Unless there was some special sauce that was helping this trio suppress home runs, it was inevitable that the wheels would come off the bus. The sticky stuff crackdown seems to have exacerbated that further for Richards and perhaps for Perez. Both of them have absolutely fallen off a cliff and are just not major league caliber pitchers at the moment.

Pivetta is a middle case. His performance has tanked, but his xFIP is actually a hair better than it was in April/May. He's not going back to that 3.86 ERA, but he could be a serviceable 5th starter.

Eovaldi has tailed off a bit in his FIP but his xFIP and ERA are right around where they were. He just had a putrid start against an incredible offensive team. Not sure that it's worth extrapolating anything from that.

E-Rod is a very weird case. His peripherals have been great all year but his BABIP luck has been awful and thus he is one of the biggest ERA underperformers in baseball this year. Since June 1 his peripherals have actually gotten better, and his ERA has improved but not by as much as one would hope. He is a decent bet to improve over the course of the rest of the season.

The good news is that we have Houck and Sale coming in to take over for Perez and Richards. Will the rotation as a whole perform like it did in April/May? Probably not. But it could be close, and there's a reasonable scenario where the rotation ends up in a better place from a playoffs perspective. If Rodriguez fixes whatever his problem is (or just gets lucky), Eovaldi keeps doing what he is doing, and Sale/Houck hit their potentials it could be a very competitive rotation.

TL;DR: The Sox are not looking great now, but those who are saying that the team's current performance is reflective of a regression that was inevitably coming all season wrong are overstating their case. The team was legitimately performing at a very high level through the end of May, and recapturing that level is absolutely plausible. If X and JD start hitting again (plus/minus Schwarber and/or Arroyo) and the second half performers like Kike keep doing their thing, then the offense in the last month and a half could actually be better than it was in April and May. The pitching staff as a whole is probably not going to return to April/May levels, but if Sale and Houck can do their thing we might have a more top heavy staff that is better suited for the playoffs than what we had in April and May. If the Red Sox play at an April/May level they have a real shot at the division and a very good chance at a wild card even if they don't overperform their pythag.

Thanks for this. Great analysis. In the most impressionistic sophomoric way, I suggested as much in a thread earlier today; thank for supplying the actual statistical analysis to confirm my general sense ... good hitters are slumping and that may well end; two new potentially superb starters have finally been added (and so bumping the two guys who are terrible); two other starters show promise despite some bad stats; and MAYBE we get additional help from Shcwarb and Arroyo .... they could turn it around.

 

[JimD]

When ownership shows you who they are, believe them.

 

[BringBackMo]

When ownership shows you who they are, believe them. They said themselves they traded Mookie for the infamous "financial flexibility." They spoke very often of wanting to get below the luxury tax. They are at least as big a team as the Dodgers and could afford nearly any payroll but they chose to cut back JUST when their home grown superstar was up for a new deal and wanted to be paid fairly.

An ownership group worth billions, that sells out the park constantly and has one of the largest fanbases in the world, claimed poverty. And they claimed it before the pandemic hit as the trade was done earlier than that. You're damn right I'm questioning their motives.

Mookie, BTW, is putting up a 144 OPS+ season while playing his usual exemplary defense. Good thing the Sox are saving all that money with Renfroe (103 OPS+) in RF this year, it's not like the team has had an awful time scoring runs over the last 6 weeks or anything.

This is a startling response to me. First, it’s a rather broad mischaracterization of why the Sox traded Mookie, and of how they themselves explained it. Second, do the four championships not count as showing us who they are? Did they somehow luck into all of them?

And to bring up the Dodgers…I mean, how much clearer can it be that Chaim Bloom’s entire approach in this, his second year on the job, is to create the AL version of the Dodgers—a team run by his former mentor? Do you think the Dodgers got to the place that they are by blowing up their minor league system in order to GFIN when they were still putting the pieces in place to become what they are now? Did they blow through the luxury tax while building what they would become? Did they hire a piss—and-vinegar manager to berate players and publicly demand accountability of players? No they did not.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Why did you crop out the flag for financial flexibility?

It seems obvious that they changed their approach after 2018. We've talked many times about how odd it was to hand Sale and Eovaldi immense extensions after the WS, then suddenly do an abrupt about face after the 2019 season, fire DD, and trade Mookie because they suddenly were concerned about the luxury tax threshold. Had they really been thinking about the threshold, they would not have extended Sale and Eovaldi (and certainly neither extension has been a good use of that money).

Something changed in the organization's thinking. If they were concerned about the farm system, why hire DD in the first place? His MO was widely known before coming to Boston. It's incredibly confusing to me.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This is a startling response to me. First, it’s a rather broad mischaracterization of why the Sox traded Mookie, and of how they themselves explained it. Second, do the four championships not count as showing us who they are? Did they somehow luck into all of them?

And to bring up the Dodgers…I mean, how much clearer can it be that Chaim Bloom’s entire approach in this, his second year on the job, is to create the AL version of the Dodgers—a team run by his former mentor? Do you think the Dodgers got to the place that they are by blowing up their minor league system in order to GFIN when they were still putting the pieces in place to become what they are now? Did they blow through the luxury tax while building what they would become? Did they hire a piss—and-vinegar manager to berate players and publicly demand accountability of players? No they did not.

Ownership radically changed course after winning the 2018 World Series.

Bloom isn't here to remake the Sox as the Dodgers. He's here to make the Sox a higher payroll version of the Rays (who oddly enough traded away Rich Hill even as they were leading the division and he is still a good pitcher).

As JMOH pointed out, I wish the Sox would commit to one path or another. If the goal is to rebuild the system and compete in a couple of years, then sell off players who real contenders would find useful and get more minor league assets. If the goal is to compete right away, then bring in better players for the major league club to make a run this year. Instead, Bloom kind of waffled. He brought in 2 bad pitchers and an injured player because they didn't cost much, but that neither restocks the farm system nor does it help the major league team. And so now they tried to have it both ways and instead have nothing: neither a strengthened farm system nor a major league team that can complete for a title. It's a puzzling approach.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

i hate consolidation because it essentially means that there’s less baseball in America—Indy leagues simply won’t be equivalent in terms of interest and civic commitment—but given the antitrust exemption I agree with you about direct ownership, it’s foolish to pretend that Red Sox and Sea Dogs don’t work for the same boss.

Baseball as usual is remarkably short-sighted in their business practices. They need more minor league teams, and to treat their players better. Minor league baseball is the gateway drug to lifelong baseball fandom and major league interest; most families cannot afford to go to many major league games, but minor league games are much less expensive, more "fun" and allow kids to get hooked on the game. I take my kid to one Red Sox game a year, but we go to many many Sea Dogs games. And she's hooked.

Part and parcel with that is the burning need to treat the minor league players better. There's no excuse for what conditions they are forced to live in. Most of these guys get maybe a $1000 signing bonus; actually going into debt while playing ball because of housing costs is criminally neglectful and the teams should be ashamed of themselves.