If Will isn't close to 100% healthy, you're not really learning anything if he struggles,but you are dinging his remaining trading chip value.
Will Middlebrooks Mashing in Pawtucket
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
If Middlebrooks is healthy the only advantage of continuing to play Drew is the hope that he'll get his shit together and they can trade him for something. What are the odds of that happening? And even if he becomes a usable ML hitter what would the return be? The upside of getting a look at Middlebrooks, Cecchini or Marrero seems to be worth more than the possible upside of playing Drew and getting something for him at some point. Whether Drew is on the bench or DFA'd shouldn't matter.
He's still only played 28 games in the majors this year, with an additional 7 or 8 in the minors. That's basically spring training. And, his OBP/SLG over the past 9 games is 309/433 (admitted small sample size and even within that concentrated in a 2 HR in 2 game burst); given all the discussion about the decline in offense, if he can keep that up, I'd have to think it's better than a lot of shortstops on currently contending teams.glennhoffmania said:
Given his contract, he might get through waivers even if he's hitting, so letting him have 4 more weeks to show the form he did the whole second half of last year while Middlebrooks gets a full 30-day rehab stint seems to me like the most prudent course of action. Jordy Mercer continues to be awful for the Pirates, and St. Louis and Cincinnati need middle infielders.
Plympton91 said:
Holding onto Drew for another 3ish weeks makes the most sense, in the hopes he can drive his value up through his hitting. Only contenders would want Drew as a rental, and they may not be interested at all, unless Drew shows some indication that he can hit again. In the middle of a race, who would want to plug a .400 OPS into the lineup in hopes that Drew really is just about to turn the corner. Further, in trade scenarios, if the Sox were willing to eat some or all of Drew's contract, they might get a better caliber prospect back in return. The money's already spent on Drew - it's not going to have an effect on anything the club does in 2014.
If he does not hit to establish trade value he should not start.
Unless an infielder on a contender snaps a limb, the Sox will have to pay another club some $ to take Drew. There probably will be no player coming back as teams know he's headed for a DFA by September.
Does anybody read?glennhoffmania said:
I should add that the difference in UZR/150 between Drew and Mercer over 2013-14 is about 10 runs to the favor of Drew, and Mercer is RH so that would be a perfect platoon situation. If the Red Sox were to pay most of the remaining money, the Pirates seem like they would be a perfect fit.Plympton91 said:
Plympton91 said:
Cut the shit.
That isn't the point and you know it. This isn't some magical world where Pit or Cincy can pick Drew over whoever. They have to give something up to get him, and pay at least some of his bloated salary. So I'll ask the question in a simpler way- who would prefer to have Drew over their current SS, has a shot at a title, would give up something of value for this "upgrade", and could/would take on at least some of his remaining salary, knowing there's a decent chance he'll be DFA'd at some point in the near future?
glennhoffmania said:
If Drew starts hitting at his 2013 clip? (.777 OPS, .876 against RHP.) If Drew returns to that level, he'd be tied for sixth best offensive production for all qualifying ML shortstops this year.
I'm pulling this off Yahoo, http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=SS&conference=MLB&year=season_2014&qualified=1&sort=25 I don't know if these guys are still frontline starters or replacements have been lined up (or whatnot) but the following teams seem plausible:
Brewers, Reds, Mariners, Pirates, Oakland, Braves, Orioles, Royals, Cleveland? And of course, the Yanks.
Edit- we might not get much for Drew, and we'd certainly have to eat a lot of money, but IF Drew starts hitting, it's possible we could get something for him, even if that something is just a scratch ticket of a fringe prospect. Something's better than nothing.
glennhoffmania said:
I'd say Very Slim. But what's the harm in waiting three weeks at this point? Or even two to see if he continues a sub-600 OPS or starts to put something together? I wouldn't expect the Sox hold on to Drew for too long if he didn't raise his trade value.
If WMB were ready to come back right now, I'd probably be in the "cut Drew now" camp.
Rovin Romine said:
That's totally reasonable. My general point is that I think the odds of Drew bringing back a meaningful return are very small, whether they try to move him now, in two weeks, or in a month. So continuing to play him seems like they're clinging to this false hope that their failed investment will yield at least something of value, despite the fact that the best case scenario probably isn't even very much at all.
I'd say 50/50. I remain worried that the struggles last postseason and the horrific start that coincided with a lot of experimenting with vision correction are something real and serious that I didn't foresee when I applauded the signing. However, that fear needs to be appropriately balanced against the realization that he just basically finished a full spring training and that his numbers, while terrible, are not outside the range of normal variation for a major league baseball player over a 100 at bat sample. In fact, they are remarkably similar to his own first 75 plate appearances last season after having missed all of spring training.glennhoffmania said:
I also don't see any problem with Boston picking up 75% of his remaining salary in a trade that nets a C+ prospect or a valuable role player. I'm not sure why anyone would. Pittsburgh has both possibilities.
And, to reiterate, he's not currently blocking anyone who's both healthy and banging on the door for a promotion. I fully agree that if he's still here and the Red Sox are still not in contention come September 1st, he shouldn't get much playing time over the final month.
glennhoffmania said:
I think that's a totally reasonable position as well. My only take on it is that the season appears to be lost so the only harm that comes from playing Drew is if he's blocking someone. Right now, he does not appear to be. (And maybe they're holding out hope for a 10 game Toronto killing streak).
Rovin Romine said:
Farrell apparently thinks WMB could be back this weekend, sometime next week at the latest. The question of who goes to make room for him is certainly a difficult one. I'd assume Drew or Carp (with Betts presumably already optioned for Victorino).
https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/490228022755463170
https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/490230245812088832
I really don't understand why this club uses rehab assignments so sparingly. There's just no way that Victorino is ready to play MLB games; Middlebrooks was shut down a day ago, now he's going to get 3 at bats and go face major league pitching?
Makes no sense to me.
Makes no sense to me.
Plympton91 said:
Rehab assignments are about health, not performance. Always have been, always will be. If the player shows he's healthy enough to play, particularly to play full games with no ill effects, then he's going back to the major league roster sooner rather than later. You don't tell a major league vet like Victorino he has to stay in the minors until he proves he can produce.
And Middlebrooks was "shut down" a week ago. Thanks to the ASB, he was down long enough to reset his rehab clock. That doesn't mean he has to use all 20 days though. From what I've seen, Farrell indicated that he might be back Sunday (which would mean two days of games with Pawtucket) but more likely, he'll be back sometime during the Toronto series (which would mean up to 5-6 games with Pawtucket).
I understand that argument and it is certainly the philosophy of the Red Sox, but I don't think it's quite as universal as you imply.
Bryce Harper had all of spring training and played regularly in April; he missed 2 months and took 5 rehab games, all in the same week, before being brought back.
Victorino missed almost all of spring training, played 21 games in April and May, since then has missed 7 weeks, and as far a I know has yet to play in back-to-back games, yet he's going to be ready in 2 rehab games?
I still say there's a reasonable middle road between the way the Red Sox do it and abusing the system to keep a guy down longer than he should be.
Bryce Harper had all of spring training and played regularly in April; he missed 2 months and took 5 rehab games, all in the same week, before being brought back.
Victorino missed almost all of spring training, played 21 games in April and May, since then has missed 7 weeks, and as far a I know has yet to play in back-to-back games, yet he's going to be ready in 2 rehab games?
I still say there's a reasonable middle road between the way the Red Sox do it and abusing the system to keep a guy down longer than he should be.
Harper started two games at single-A, took a day off then started three straight at AA before returning.
Victorino played last Thursday and Friday, was off Saturday, played Sunday, then there was an All Star Break where there were no games to play, he played last night and is playing tonight. Gotta figure if it weren't for the ASB, Victorino would have played Monday and Tuesday (maybe Tues and Wed) and he'd be back up by now with just as much rehab time as ol' Bryce Harper got.
Prove your healthy and return to the big club...that's the standard that pretty much all 30 teams use, particularly with veteran players on multi-million dollar contracts.
Victorino played last Thursday and Friday, was off Saturday, played Sunday, then there was an All Star Break where there were no games to play, he played last night and is playing tonight. Gotta figure if it weren't for the ASB, Victorino would have played Monday and Tuesday (maybe Tues and Wed) and he'd be back up by now with just as much rehab time as ol' Bryce Harper got.
Prove your healthy and return to the big club...that's the standard that pretty much all 30 teams use, particularly with veteran players on multi-million dollar contracts.
Ok. That's more than I thought Vic had been doing. So I guess you've convinced me.Red(s)HawksFan said:
On Middlebrooks, he's lucky he hasn't just been optioned. He should be more than happy to clect major league money for a full 20 day assignment.
I don't see how they make room for him without DFAing Drew, and that's just a collosolly stupid use of resources. Even if there's no market for Drew right now, he's not toxic and not 38 years old like AJP.
If also say that if Victorino is back and Bogaerts is back at SS, that puts Holt at 3B, not Middlebrooks. The only other option to keep Holt in the lineup is LF, where Nava's hitting like 370 in recent days.
Plympton91 said:
When in doubt, Farrell takes Nava out. Maybe they're planning to have Victorino in CF some days..
Brendan McGair @BWMcGair03 18m
Too many close pitches by Buffalo's Esmil Rogers resulted in @PawSox DH Corey Brown going toward Rogers as he walked off the mound.
Mark Daniels @MarkDanielsPJ 20m
Victorino was out there in the middle of it.
PawSox @PawSox 19m
The benches and bullpens empty but no contact is made.
Too many close pitches by Buffalo's Esmil Rogers resulted in @PawSox DH Corey Brown going toward Rogers as he walked off the mound.
Mark Daniels @MarkDanielsPJ 20m
Victorino was out there in the middle of it.
PawSox @PawSox 19m
The benches and bullpens empty but no contact is made.
And then this happened...
Brendan McGair @BWMcGair03 12m
In between innings at McCoy Stadium, "Kung Fu Fighting" blared over the PA system.
Brendan McGair @BWMcGair03 12m
In between innings at McCoy Stadium, "Kung Fu Fighting" blared over the PA system.
https://twitter.com/PawSoxDaddy/status/490302584826368000
https://twitter.com/PawSoxDaddy/status/490302584826368000
link to tweet
https://twitter.com/PawSoxDaddy/status/490302584826368000
link to tweet
2-3 with a double and a walk tonight. 350 OBP and more than 840 OPS in past 11 games.Rovin Romine said:
glennhoffmania said:
SS defense is disproportionately valuable to Pittsburgh since their entire defensive strategy is organized around making their pitchers more ground ball prone and fielding said ground balls. So that could factor into a trade because of the asymmetric value.
That DP Drew started today would have had a splooge thread if it had been one of the prospects making that play.
Good to see Farrell state that Middlebrooks is staying in Pawtucket. Let him eat AAA pitching up and reestablish himself, be that for a trade or as a more flexible Gomes replacement next season.
Good to see Farrell state that Middlebrooks is staying in Pawtucket. Let him eat AAA pitching up and reestablish himself, be that for a trade or as a more flexible Gomes replacement next season.
Jeff Levering @JLevering4 10s
Will Middlebrooks launches his 3rd homer with Pawtucket. No doubter to right center. When he's going well, good pop to RCF
https://twitter.com/JLevering4/status/492107572464590849
Will Middlebrooks launches his 3rd homer with Pawtucket. No doubter to right center. When he's going well, good pop to RCF
https://twitter.com/JLevering4/status/492107572464590849
Another day another HR for WMB
Greg Joyce @GJoyce9 3m
Will Middlebrooks hits his second home run in as many games, pulled deep to LF, to put Pawtucket ahead of the IronPigs 3-1 in the sixth.
https://twitter.com/GJoyce9/status/492484717590355968
Greg Joyce @GJoyce9 3m
Will Middlebrooks hits his second home run in as many games, pulled deep to LF, to put Pawtucket ahead of the IronPigs 3-1 in the sixth.
https://twitter.com/GJoyce9/status/492484717590355968
Mike F said:
True, but I'm thinking Drew is not on the roster by around August 20th, if not sooner.