Will Joe Kelly Ever Fulfill His Potential?

YTF

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OK, so Kelly can't pitch through the first inning last night due to a shoulder impingement. At this point it's too early too over react, but perhaps not a bad spot to open up some discussion. Behind Price, the rotation is comprised of a lot of hope. We hope that the flashes of brilliance the we've seen from Kelly can some how become more consistent when he's able to return. FWIW, I just heard Sean McAdam on Comcast saying that Travis Shaw went through this in winter ball and it was over a month before he could throw a baseball.. We hope that 2016 Porcello some how pitches like 2014 Porcello. We hope that Buchholz can stay healthy because generally speaking, a healthy Buchholz is a productive Buchholz. We hope that Rodriguez returns sooner rather than later and continues on his positive path and we hope that the likes of Wright, Owens and Elias are up to the task when called upon. With the return of Christian Vazquez, is it time to consider a package of Swihart and other chips for a solid #2 to slot behind Price? Yeah the Sox moved a few guys for Kimbrel, but there are still desirable pieces in the system and with Vazquez looking nothing like a second year player, Swihart is expendable and will likely draw a fair amount of interest. My intent here isn't necessarily to get folks to toss out trade proposals, but rather ask if this recent Kelly injury should be seen as an opportunity rather than a set back?
 

InsideTheParker

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Whom do you propose as a "solid #2?" Why would he be available? (I know you said your intent was not to generate trade proposals, but I am genuinely curious about why such a rarity as an excellent pitcher would be available in April.)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Still too early.....
.... not that Owens has been inspiring in AAA thus far, but he should be able to make however many starts are needed to bridge to Rodriguez. Yes.... we have a lot of "hopes" that need to come out on the good side for us- most teams rotations do. Patience is the way to go forward here until at least the middle of May before taking action. I do hope DD does go for it now (to an extent) for Ortiz' last season- the questions of course is how much? Who is expendable to GFIN that is at their highest value that won't hinder the club down the line? Probably a topic for another thread.....
 

JimD

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Aside from Ortiz's farewell, this is not a GFIN team, though. Too many question marks across the roster. They have shown that they should be competitive this year barring any catastrophic injuries to top players. Any trade now would be a severe overpay.

I'd rather see Owens stay in Pawtucket and work on his control (10 BB in 18 IP so far this season). Bring up Johnson even if he's on a pitch count (85 pitches in his last start), especially if the bullpen is in decent shape leading up to his game.
 

mfried

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Aside from Ortiz's farewell, this is not a GFIN team, though. Too many question marks across the roster. They have shown that they should be competitive this year barring any catastrophic injuries to top players. Any trade now would be a severe overpay.

I'd rather see Owens stay in Pawtucket and work on his control (10 BB in 18 IP so far this season). Bring up Johnson even if he's on a pitch count (85 pitches in his last start), especially if the bullpen is in decent shape leading up to his game.
I'm a bit puzzled as to why Johnson's curve isn't considered a better MLB weapon than Owens' changeup? Definitely bring him up.
 

YTF

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Specific players? I'm not sure. That would be dependent on other teams who might see some advantage to making a deal this early in the season. Payroll could be a motivator. Why might he be available? That would depend on potential trade partner's realistic expectations for this season as well as their immediate or future needs. Conventional thinking is you wait until later in the season when you may have more suitors to maximize your potential return, but if a team like the Red Sox has a need as well as players that you covet, this could be an opportunity to negotiate without the risk of competing with other teams (potential sellers) who may be willing to part with more for the pieces that you want. Other than fan perspective, is there much difference in making a trade now vs. 4-6 weeks ago? Need and opportunity come when they come. IMO the need has been there for some time and I see this as an opportunity to at least see what could be available. Like the old saying goes...Ya don't know if ya don't ask. Case in point, Josh Donaldson to Toronto. Did anyone even think he was available?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Whom do you propose as a "solid #2?" Why would he be available? (I know you said your intent was not to generate trade proposals, but I am genuinely curious about why such a rarity as an excellent pitcher would be available in April.)
The Sox' "solid #2" for the first half of 2016 needs to be Buchholz, now that it's certain not to be Kelly taking a giant step forward. Porcello's stuff isn't good enough to be more than a steady #3. Rodriguez is injured and won't be back until May at the earliest.

If Buchholz pitches more like he did on Patriots Day, and less like he did in Cleveland, the Sox can pretty confidently backfill with Rodriguez and Porcello -- and the starting staff should be quite decent regardless whether Wright or Owens or Johnson is the last guy. And if he doesn't, it's going to be another long summer.

Granted, I absolutely hate that the linchpin of yet another Red Sox season is Clay Buchholz, but that's the situation we're in.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Options: Sunday (night game in Houston) followed by a night game in Atlanta
  • Elias
  • Escobar
  • Johnson
  • Owens
Or...
  • Rodriguez (scheduled to throw 75 on Saturday)
Or...
  • Bullpen Game (whoever pitches is going to need a full pen anyway)
Or...
  • Trade (and associated re-assignment)
Or...
  • Rainout
That pretty much nails it, right?

{EDIT: William Cuevas? Someone know the roster situation?}
 
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trekfan55

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Game is @Houston, they have a roof. No rainout.

It's anyone's guess, but this is a long term injury (6-8 weeks) not a spot start so the FO will bring up the pitcher they think is further along.
Also, Escobar has been DFA'd so he's not an option.
 

Rasputin

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Game is @Houston, they have a roof. No rainout.

It's anyone's guess, but this is a long term injury (6-8 weeks) not a spot start so the FO will bring up the pitcher they think is further along.
Also, Escobar has been DFA'd so he's not an option.
I think "anyone's guess" is a little extreme. I think we can be fairly confident it won't be a trade, bullpen game, Rodriguez, a rainout, or Escobar.

That means it's one of Owens, Johnson, or Elias, and Owens is both the best option in terms of ability and experience, but the one that lines up best with the rotation.
 

Sprowl

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I'm a bit puzzled as to why Johnson's curve isn't considered a better MLB weapon than Owens' changeup? Definitely bring him up.
Because Owens' changeup gets many, many whiffs -- it is a real out pitch. I have not seen Johnson's curve fool many batters, at least in his brief pre-injury stint with the Red Sox last year. Johnson's fastball is barely adequate, and overall I do not think he shows the potential to be more than a journeyman starter. Owens is a few inches of fastball command away from being a #3 starter, and 2 mph of velocity away from being a #2 starter. Their respective ceilings are very far apart.
 

Drek717

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Aside from Ortiz's farewell, this is not a GFIN team, though. Too many question marks across the roster. They have shown that they should be competitive this year barring any catastrophic injuries to top players. Any trade now would be a severe overpay.

I'd rather see Owens stay in Pawtucket and work on his control (10 BB in 18 IP so far this season). Bring up Johnson even if he's on a pitch count (85 pitches in his last start), especially if the bullpen is in decent shape leading up to his game.
Johnson's fastball has been in the high 80's with declining velocity with increasing pitch count so far in AAA. He is on a strict pitch count. None of his secondary pitches are considered elite, just solid. Bringing him up now makes absolutely no sense. He needs more time to recoup from a serious injury.

Owens meanwhile has control issues, he had them last year too and still saw 11 ML starts. His BB/9 was actually lower at the ML level last year than it was at AAA. His K/9 is way up from AAA last year however and that saw a modest 0.5/9 drop when he moved from AAA to ML last year.

The decision here is really Owens v. Elias. Owens is throwing better currently in AAA, more of a known quantity for the Boston catchers, and likely offers greater upside. Elias alternatively is older, has more productive ML innings under his belt, and is a guy they need to make use of sooner than later for service time and age reasons. Neither is honestly a particularly bad choice and I would be surprised to see either out-pitch Joe Kelly's aggregate numbers from 2015 by a not insignificant margin.

As for Mr. Kelly, at what point does everyone just give up on the starter fantasy? He's never come particularly close to throwing 200 innings across any level. He split 2012 between AAA and ML to throw about 170 and last year his time with Boston and Pawtucket accounted for a little over 150. Those are his two highest pitch count seasons. While a comparatively small sample his roughly 50 innings of ML relief work features an ERA 0.75 runs lower than starting, his K/9 jumps by 2, and his SO/W ratio doubles. At some point the Sox need to concede that while Kelly has the potential tools to be a starter he is now 27, accumulating his 4th year of service time, was only converted to a relief pitcher in college and a starter in the minors. Maybe if Kelly had been a starter all along he would have the polish he needs at this point to be an ML starter but instead of wishing on that prayer why not get him healthy and then try to extract what value they can before he's a free agent?
 

soxhop411

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Dombrowski says they have no plans to move Kelly to the BP
NEW YORK — Moving Joe Kelly to the bullpen wouldn't be a new discussion, but it is not a present discussion, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Friday afternoon at Yankee Stadium.

“In fact, one of my first meetings (once I joined the Red Sox), the staff talked about him potentially going into the bullpen,” Dombrowski said. “We had a lot of injuries at that time, a lot of guys that were tired. So it was decided to keep him in the rotation and he pitched very well.

“It’s not something we’re discussing at this point, and our bullpen’s pretty deep as it is right now.”

Kelly on Friday night was slated to make his first rehab start, with Triple-A Pawtucket, as he comes back from an impingement in his throwing (right) shoulder.

Kelly needs at least two rehab starts before he could return, but may well need more. Still, the rotation will quickly grow crowded if both Eduardo Rodriguez and Kelly are available to re-enter it in good health soon.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/05/red_sox_not_considering_moving_joe_kelly_to_bullpen
 

Cesar Crespo

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Joe Kelly 3ip, 2h, 1er off a HR, 1bb, 3k. 52 pitches, 28 for strikes in his rehab start tonight.
 

mfried

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28:24 strikes:balls is not the optimal way to distribute 52 pitches.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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That was great. 6 innings and 2 runs with less than 3 walks allowed and I'll start feeling giddy.
I see that Iayork monitored what he threw to LHB and RHB... But I'm curious how he threw to the CHB.

You're welcome
 
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YTF

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Cautiously optimistic. The guy's always thrown hard and 2015 second half Joe showed the promise we've all hoped for. In Saturday's start he avoided some of the early inning trouble that has haunted him in the past and even when he lost the strike zone, walked three, made a throwing error and another throw that needed to be corralled in by Handyman he was able to get out of it and settle down in the next inning. Since coming off the DL last season, he's won 10 of his last 13 starts. A healthy Joe Kelly who can show us 80% of what he showed this past weekend will be a blessing both for the rotation and the bullpen. Here's hoping that this guy's potential label is finally becoming a reality.
 

Rasputin

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Don't understand.

Price, Porcello, Buchholz, Wright and...??? (Do they think Rodriguez is the solution?)
Rodriguez is pretty clearly the solution. It just might not be for a while. A trade acquisition is the short term solution and a Joe Kelly that's effective out of the bullpen fills a hole.
 

Al Zarilla

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Rodriguez is pretty clearly the solution. It just might not be for a while. A trade acquisition is the short term solution and a Joe Kelly that's effective out of the bullpen fills a hole.
You sound so confident about all this while so much about Red Sox pitching has been blowing up in their faces. At this point it's like throwing al dente spaghetti against a wall and seeing what sticks.
 

geoduck no quahog

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The issue is more about utilizing O'Sullivan / Wilkerson / Cuevas / Elias until Rodriguez gets his act together. Kelly should be better than that assembly, so I guess the trade route is being developed.
 

YTF

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Kelly to the bullpen seems to be an in house solution to one of several pitching issues. He's shown the potential to be brilliant in stretches of a couple innings at a time. Of course he'll have to be a bit more precise with that brilliance coming out of the pen. I would still like to see another BP arm acquired in addition, because there just isn't a whole lot of stability out there at the moment.
 

Rasputin

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You sound so confident about all this while so much about Red Sox pitching has been blowing up in their faces. At this point it's like throwing al dente spaghetti against a wall and seeing what sticks.
I'm pretty confident Rodriguez is going to be a decent major league starter.

Much less confident about Kelly being an effective anything.
 

Norm Siebern

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Joe Kelly is moving to the bullpen. For Pawtucket first, then Red Sox.
It's about F'in time. This has been such an obvious move for so long now that when it didnt hapen I just assumed it was impossible. I figured Kelly's arm could not take back to back days, the strain of pitching three or four times a week an inning or two at a time, etc. just wasnt possible for his arm type. Now that it finally is being set in motion, well, what took so F'ing long? With his stuff he could be devestating in a short role in any of the 6th through 8th innings. This saves Taz, Uehara, and replaces Smith. So again, what took so long?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What took so long is the team has had as much of a glaring hole in the rotation as it does in the bullpen, and Kelly has been just as viable a candidate to fill either spot if he's healthy. Everything that makes Kelly tantalizing as a reliever is what makes him tantalizing as a starter. Everything that makes him flawed as a starter is just as likely to make him flawed as a reliever. Command has always been his issue. I don't think shortening his outings is going to magically make that better.
 

In my lifetime

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It's about F'in time. This has been such an obvious move for so long now that when it didnt hapen I just assumed it was impossible. I figured Kelly's arm could not take back to back days, the strain of pitching three or four times a week an inning or two at a time, etc. just wasnt possible for his arm type. Now that it finally is being set in motion, well, what took so F'ing long? With his stuff he could be devestating in a short role in any of the 6th through 8th innings. This saves Taz, Uehara, and replaces Smith. So again, what took so long?
What took so long is that the RS have 3 starters and are desperate for help with 2 spots in the starting rotation, while they really need just 1 additional 7th or 8th inning reliever. In addition, Kelly has been hurt a good portion of the time since (and also before) Smith was put on the disabled list May 20th.
 

AB in DC

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It's about F'in time. This has been such an obvious move for so long now that when it didnt hapen I just assumed it was impossible. I figured Kelly's arm could not take back to back days, the strain of pitching three or four times a week an inning or two at a time, etc. just wasnt possible for his arm type. Now that it finally is being set in motion, well, what took so F'ing long? With his stuff he could be devestating in a short role in any of the 6th through 8th innings. This saves Taz, Uehara, and replaces Smith. So again, what took so long?
Check the Bradford article linked above -- supposedly the shoulder is much stronger now than it had been before. Kelly had complained about being unable to pitch consecutive days in the past. Maybe now his shoulder is strong enough to handle it?
 

Al Zarilla

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Check the Bradford article linked above -- supposedly the shoulder is much stronger now than it had been before. Kelly had complained about being unable to pitch consecutive days in the past. Maybe now his shoulder is strong enough to handle it?
Maybe also now that he knows he has to (as a relief pitcher) the shoulder suddenly got stronger.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
What took so long is the team has had as much of a glaring hole in the rotation as it does in the bullpen, and Kelly has been just as viable a candidate to fill either spot if he's healthy. Everything that makes Kelly tantalizing as a reliever is what makes him tantalizing as a starter. Everything that makes him flawed as a starter is just as likely to make him flawed as a reliever. Command has always been his issue. I don't think shortening his outings is going to magically make that better.
It might, if it means putting him in a situation where he can focus on commanding the fastball and simplify his approach to hitters, where he doesn't have to worry about saving anything for the 2nd or 3rd time he faces a guy, and can just focus on using his best stuff to get a handful of hitters out once.
 

Rasputin

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Check the Bradford article linked above -- supposedly the shoulder is much stronger now than it had been before. Kelly had complained about being unable to pitch consecutive days in the past. Maybe now his shoulder is strong enough to handle it?
Or maybe now he understands he either pitches in relief or he pitches in Japan.
 

Rough Carrigan

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If he can be a good reliever who can work as a long man, if necessary, it would be a nice advantage for the Sox. Seemingly no one else has a long man out of their pen and as a result, almost no matter how shitty everyone's starter is that night he's forced to try to go 4 innings. With this team's offense, the ability to minimize the damage of a bad Buchholz or whoever start is a big deal. This team can come back from 3-0 deficits. Letting them balloon to 7-0 because Eduardo's gotta go 4 or or Porcello's gotta go 4 ain't helping.
 

#1GreenwellFan

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iayork wrote a piece this morning on the .com about Joe Kelly:



Should we get our hopes up, or are we going to get disappointed again?
I personally think he has reached his potential. He's a No. 5 starter. That's all he's ever been and all we can expect from him. I'm not sure why we can't accept that.

Same thing is happening with Porcello. He's a career No. 3 guy with solid No. 2 upside. That's all his numbers have ever shown him to be. Just because the Sox decided to pay him like a No. 1 doesn't mean he can be one.
 

OptimusPapi

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I personally think he has reached his potential. He's a No. 5 starter. That's all he's ever been and all we can expect from him. I'm not sure why we can't accept that.

Same thing is happening with Porcello. He's a career No. 3 guy with solid No. 2 upside. That's all his numbers have ever shown him to be. Just because the Sox decided to pay him like a No. 1 doesn't mean he can be one.
Number one starters are getting paid way more then twenty million.
 

#1GreenwellFan

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Number one starters are getting paid way more then twenty million.
High end No. 1 starters, yeah, and since he was signed, all front end starter salaries have seemed to blow up but a year and a half ago, that wasn't much off the mark for anyone other than the high end No. 1's.
 

#1GreenwellFan

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When he signed that contract, these are the 11 pitchers who were making $20M or more:Matt Cain, Mashiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Porcello isn't close to being in that category.
 

simplicio

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When he signed that contract, these are the 11 pitchers who were making $20M or more:Matt Cain, Mashiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Porcello isn't close to being in that category.
No, but he's also younger than most of them and only on a four year deal.
 

nvalvo

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When he signed that contract, these are the 11 pitchers who were making $20M or more:Matt Cain, Mashiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

Porcello isn't close to being in that category.
Yeah, why is AAV your criterion here? Aren't the deals guys like Lester, Scherzer and Price got twice as long?

The closest comp is probably Jeff Samardzija's $90m deal, signed an offseason later. Samardzija's fine, but I think most people would prefer Porcello's age 27-30 seasons at 4/$83 to Samardzija's age 31-36 seasons at 5/$90. Shark has a season line that looks superficially like Porcello's until you acknowledge that Porcello pitches half his starts in Fenway and Shark at AT&T.