Wild Card Weekend Gamethread

[Dr. Gonzo]

Saturday, Jan. 7
AFC: (5) Oakland at (4) Houston, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
NFC: (6) Detroit at (3) Seattle, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)

Sunday, Jan. 8
AFC: (6) Miami at (3) Pittsburgh, 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFC: (5) New York Giants at (4) Green Bay, 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox)

The best game of the weekend is the last one and the worst is probably the first.

 

[Tony C]

probably true, but I'm fascinated by and really looking forward to Oak vs Hou. Two really solid teams on both sides of the ball with really bad QBs (or presumably really bad QBs, anyway). I'm sort of looking forward to seeing Connor Cook's first ever start, in a rubber-necking kind of way.

 

[Stitch01]

Houston is one of the worst offenses in the league and Oakland's defense isn't good. Agree on the rubbernecking, but given the quarterback situation this is basically Jets-Bills dressed up as a playoff game.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm looking forward to going to bed by halftime of the Seattle-Detroit game

 

[Saints Rest]

Does anyone else watch these games as "scouting"? In other words, getting a bead on who the Pats will have to deal with? I always care more about the AFC games, at least until Conference Championship weekend, for that reason.

I know Bill isn't about to call me to ask how i think the Pats should deal with Kevin Mack or Connor Cook, but I like to know who are the players to watch.

 

[tims4wins]

Does anyone else watch these games as "scouting"? In other words, getting a bead on who the Pats will have to deal with? I always care more about the AFC games, at least until Conference Championship weekend, for that reason.

I know Bill isn't about to call me to ask how i think the Pats should deal with Kevin Mack or Connor Cook, but I like to know who are the players to watch.

Yeah I will be taping both AFC games (in addition to watching them live), then will re-watch the Pats opponent during the week.

I tape all the Pats game too and re-watch during the week.

 

[Marciano490]

This is one of the weirdest weekends of playoff football I can remember. Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't put $10 on any game picking an outright winner even.

 

[loshjott]

Does anyone else watch these games as "scouting"? In other words, getting a bead on who the Pats will have to deal with? I always care more about the AFC games, at least until Conference Championship weekend, for that reason.

I know Bill isn't about to call me to ask how i think the Pats should deal with Kevin Mack or Connor Cook, but I like to know who are the players to watch.

Kevin Mack is in his mid 50s and hasn't played a down in the NFL since 1993. I'll volunteer that Bill can deal with Mack by comping him a pair of tickets for the game.

 

[johnmd20]

This is one of the weirdest weekends of playoff football I can remember. Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't put $10 on any game picking an outright winner even.

I think Houston and Pitt and Seattle end up winning without too much trouble. Houston's defense is going to win that Oak game. Miami is absolutely awful. And Detriot has a QB with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand and he's their entire team.

The Giants/GB is shaping up to be the game of the weekend but I guess Oakland can keep it close because Brock is teh suck too.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'm not sure about Seattle, but Dolphins @ a 20 degree Hines Field? #Finsup!

 

[Stitch01]

Four favorites win and the closest game is Seattle/Detroit.

 

[Saints Rest]

Kevin Mack is in his mid 50s and hasn't played a down in the NFL since 1993. I'll volunteer that Bill can deal with Mack by comping him a pair of tickets for the game.

My point exactly! I need to do some scouting to even know the names of the guys I need to be worried about.

Like Jim Miller on the Broncos rushing the QB.
Or Greg Bell, the RB for the Steelers!

 

[Marciano490]

I think Houston and Pitt and Seattle end up winning without too much trouble. Houston's defense is going to win that Oak game. Miami is absolutely awful. And Detriot has a QB with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand and he's their entire team.

The Giants/GB is shaping up to be the game of the weekend but I guess Oakland can keep it close because Brock is teh suck too.

Logically, I think you're correct, but I can see Ajayi going for 150+ and Moore hitting a bomb or 2, Seattle's offense sputtering again, and Houston putting up 10 points and committing a few turnovers that give Oakland good enough field position to win.

Obviously, you can write hypothetical narratives before any game where one team wins or loses or ties or suffers a blowout, but the above scenarios seem likely enough to me that for the first time in forever I have 0 inclination to bet anything besides o/u's.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

My point exactly! I need to do some scouting to even know the names of the guys I need to be worried about.

Like Jim Miller on the Broncos rushing the QB.
Or Greg Bell, the RB for the Steelers!

That's why the Raiders & Rams lost in 2001, they didn't realize the Pats were going to use "Jason Varitek to split the uprights". They were scouting the wrong kicker.

 

[Marciano490]

Four favorites win and the closest game is Seattle/Detroit.

What odds would you need back on that for a tiny, charitable wager? 3:1 or is that unfair?

 

[johnmd20]

Logically, I think you're correct, but I can see Ajayi going for 150+ and Moore hitting a bomb or 2, Seattle's offense sputtering again, and Houston putting up 10 points and committing a few turnovers that give Oakland good enough field position to win.

Obviously, you can write hypothetical narratives before any game where one team wins or loses or ties or suffers a blowout, but the above scenarios seem likely enough to me that for the first time in forever I have 0 inclination to bet anything besides o/u's.

Miami is atrocious. They aren't winning in Pit, who will spend the game stopping Ajayi. Moore will hit two bombs less than two. And Seattle can't lose to Detroit in Seattle. Oakland really is the one question mark, they could pull it off, but Houston's defense is legitimately awesome. Connor Cook is walking through that door, not Derek Carr.

 

[Stitch01]

No interest.

 

[wilked]

What odds would you need back on that for a tiny, charitable wager? 3:1 or is that unfair?

Based on the point spreads 3:1 is about right

 

[soxhop411]

-

 

[tims4wins]

Miami gave up the most yards in franchise history. They ain't winning.

Side note: this will be the first playoff game that Ben, Brown, and Bell have played together

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Donald Penn ruled out tomorrow for the Raiders

 

[tims4wins]

Donald Penn ruled out tomorrow for the Raiders

Do the Raiders score a single point tomorrow? Maybe if Brock throws a pick in his own territory they could get a FG

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Do the Raiders score a single point tomorrow? Maybe if Brock throws a pick in his own territory they could get a FG

I'm not optimistic, but if Cook could score on Denver and get into Janikowski range another time, I think he will be OK this week, seeing how he actually took some snaps in practice this time.

 

[TFisNEXT]

10-13 points might be enough to win that HOU/OAK matchup.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Pictures from every playoff game this millennium. TIL that the Seahawks were in the AFC until 2002!


Edit: Embed not working on my computer, but clicking operates as a hyperlink.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Donald Penn ruled out tomorrow for the Raiders

Adam Schefter does a sly upgrading of RapSheet's tweet

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Raiders have ruled out starting LT Donald Penn from Saturday game due to knee injury. Backup LT, backup QB vs Texans.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

I'm looking forward to going to bed by halftime of the Seattle-Detroit game

It might be boring but it probably won't be decided by the half. Both offenses tend to do better later in the game.

 

[dynomite]

probably true, but I'm fascinated by and really looking forward to Oak vs Hou. Two really solid teams on both sides of the ball with really bad QBs (or presumably really bad QBs, anyway). I'm sort of looking forward to seeing Connor Cook's first ever start, in a rubber-necking kind of way.

You think that now. Wait until it's a 13-6 game in the 4th quarter and you've had to watch the overmatched QBs spike balls in the dirt and sail them out of bounds for 2 hours.

I'll be happily surprised if it's a good game, but I'm skeptical, especially when both teams are arguably missing their best player (Carr and Watt).

 

[NAR29996]

FWIW, (probably nothing) but there were a surprising number of people at work this week (in Houston) trying to get rid of their tickets for this game. I think that the natives are nervous.

 

[Tony C]

You think that now. Wait until it's a 13-6 game in the 4th quarter and you've had to watch the overmatched QBs spike balls in the dirt and sail them out of bounds for 2 hours.

I'll be happily surprised if it's a good game, but I'm skeptical, especially when both teams are arguably missing their best player (Carr and Watt).

I think I'll concede the point -- the scenario you paint sounds all too realistic.

 

[ilol@u]

Ideal scenario for the Patriots is Housto. and Miami winning?
Miami @ NE
Houston @ KC

Hope Houston pulls off the crazy upset at Arrowhead.

PIT and KC are the only real 'threats' to the Pats not making the Superbowl.

 

[SMU_Sox]

See, I am in Marciano's boat but I would be willing to wager on Seattle as I think DET is an abysmal team. I wouldn't touch OAK/HOU or GB/NYG. I also think PIT bests Miami. I'd wager a charitable bet on the 3 seeds winning, or the 3 seeds and at least one of the 4 seeds winning but I don't think I'd want to gamble on all favorites winning. All but one of the games should be close.

Quick edit: PIT and Miami both have high play variance. As a rule I try not to bet on teams that have high variance.

 

[JoePoulson]

Pictures from every playoff game this millennium. TIL that the Seahawks were in the AFC until 2002!

I still sometimes struggle with this. Kind of like how the Brewers are still in the AL and the Astros remain in the NL Central.

 

[snowmanny]

Can't we trade them for the Brewers? And send the Colts and Steelers back too? Edit: forgot the Ravens.

 

[BigSoxFan]

See, I am in Marciano's boat but I would be willing to wager on Seattle as I think DET is an abysmal team. I wouldn't touch OAK/HOU or GB/NYG. I also think PIT bests Miami. I'd wager a charitable bet on the 3 seeds winning, or the 3 seeds and at least one of the 4 seeds winning but I don't think I'd want to gamble on all favorites winning. All but one of the games should be close.

Quick edit: PIT and Miami both have high play variance. As a rule I try not to bet on teams that have high variance.

Probably belongs in Fiskful but the strategy I would employ is:

1) Avoid the Texans game. No freaking idea what happens in that game and crappy turnovers from crappy QBs could easily change things.

2) Do 3 team 10 point teaser on Pitt, Sea, and Giants. You'd get Pitt basically even up at home against an inferior team, Sea +2 at home against a crap team, and Giants +14 in a game they could easily win.

Doing this gets you close to 1:1 odds.

 

[Marciano490]

Probably belongs in Fiskful but the strategy I would employ is:

1) Avoid the Texans game. No freaking idea what happens in that game and crappy turnovers from crappy QBs could easily change things.

2) Do 3 team 10 point teaser on Pitt, Sea, and Giants. You'd get Pitt basically even up at home against an inferior team, Sea +2 at home against a crap team, and Giants +14 in a game they could easily win.

Doing this gets you close to 1:1 odds.

Interesting - if I'm doing a 3 team teaser, though, I think I'd rather put money on the underdogs in games I don't think will be high scoring enough to permit a blowout. I'd take the o/u in GB, OAK and DET, that way you're getting the latter two teams at +14 and +18 respectively. I don't think either Houston or Seattle's offense is going to score enough points that a TD or FG even from Oak or Detroit doesn't cover that big a spread.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I'll do $50 to the Jimmy fund if there are more than one 5 or 6 seed that wins this weekend. If the Fins win I will throw in an extra $25.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Interesting - if I'm doing a 3 team teaser, though, I think I'd rather put money on the underdogs in games I don't think will be high scoring enough to permit a blowout. I'd take the o/u in GB, OAK and DET, that way you're getting the latter two teams at +14 and +18 respectively. I don't think either Houston or Seattle's offense is going to score enough points that a TD or FG even from Oak or Detroit doesn't cover that big a spread.

I absolutely despise o/u - just not fun for me. I sometimes agree with your strategy but I think Pitt and Seattle are near locks. Just can't see Miami or Detroit winning those at all. And, of course, I just jinxed someone...hopefully Pittsburgh.

 

[Marciano490]

I absolutely despise o/u - just not fun for me. I sometimes agree with your strategy but I think Pitt and Seattle are near locks. Just can't see Miami or Detroit winning those at all. And, of course, I just jinxed someone...hopefully Pittsburgh.

I mean, with +10 we can both win comfortably.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Am I the only Seattle fan terrified about tomorrow night? I can talk myself into a Super Bowl berth as easily as I can talk myself into an early exit.

Such a strange team with Thomas out.

 

[DanoooME]

Am I the only Seattle fan terrified about tomorrow night? I can talk myself into a Super Bowl berth as easily as I can talk myself into an early exit.

Such a strange team with Thomas out.

Nope. I could see any score happen in favor of either team.

I'm sure I'll be pissing my wife off tomorrow night with steady cursing at the screen.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

I like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Houston and Green Bay.

One thing that hurts Detroit in addition to Stafford's finger is Theo Riddick being IR'd for the year. He was having a sneaky good season for them.

Pitt's been here before, and the big narrative seems to be how they have their three skill position guys healthy (Ben/Bell/Brown), so I expect them to take care of business at home.

I'm actually kind of impressed with what Bill O'Brien has done in Houston. No JJ Watt + shitty QB situation and still goes to the playoffs (I know that division is bad). I like them over Oakland. Although wasn't Conner Cook considered a stud QB prospect at one point at Michigan State? Who knows on this one. Kudos to the Raiders this year, though.

Green Bay will win because I want them to lose, mostly because I want Rogers to fall further behind Brady in the GOAT race, and want the Giants in the Super Bowl again to put all those demons to bed. I also think all this talk about how well the Giants do in Lambeau is somewhat locker room material for GB.

 

[tims4wins]

It might be boring but it probably won't be decided by the half. Both offenses tend to do better later in the game.

True, it will probably be like 6-3 or 9-3 Seattle at the half and they will win like 23-3

 

[axx]

Packers are apparently having difficulty selling out the tickets. They are giving away hot chocolate during the game. This kind of reminds me of the Ray Rice game against the Patriots where it was like single digits at Gillette.

 

[Marciano490]

I'll do $50 to the Jimmy fund if there are more than one 5 or 6 seed that wins this weekend. If the Fins win I will throw in an extra $25.

Does this need a matching bet, or are you just throwing it out there?

 

[jsinger121]

Packers are apparently having difficulty selling out the tickets. They are giving away hot chocolate during the game. This kind of reminds me of the Ray Rice game against the Patriots where it was like single digits at Gillette.

Before I even got to my seats for that game it was 7-0. Easily the worst Pats game I have ever been too. My dad now refuses to go playoff games after going to two home blowouts in his Patriots life. The Ravens loss and the 1978 blowout playoff loss to the Houston Oilers.

 

[johnmd20]

Am I the only Seattle fan terrified about tomorrow night? I can talk myself into a Super Bowl berth as easily as I can talk myself into an early exit.

Such a strange team with Thomas out.

No, come on. The Lions are an awful team and their best player is hurt. And they are playing in Seattle. Thomas is a huge loss and it will cost Seattle a chance at the super bowl. But not today. This game is already over.

 

[dcmissle]

Before I even got to my seats for that game it was 7-0. Easily the worst Pats game I have ever been too. My dad now refuses to go playoff games after going to two home blowouts in his Patriots life. The Ravens loss and the 1978 blowout playoff loss to the Houston Oilers.

They curb stomped us, pathetic, never competitive.

This weekend has stinker potential to be sure. Oak/Hou could see awful play. Detroit could no show at Seattle. Pittsburgh may keel haul Miami. The last game could be the only well played, competitive one. Or not.

 

[BigSoxFan]

They curb stomped us, pathetic, never competitive.

This weekend has stinker potential to be sure. Oak/Hou could see awful play. Detroit could no show at Seattle. Pittsburgh may keel haul Miami. The last game could be the only well played, competitive one. Or not.

I think GB/NY will be Div Round quality. The other 3 will look and feel like the crappy WC games they are.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm not optimistic, but if Cook could score on Denver and get into Janikowski range another time, I think he will be OK this week, seeing how he actually took some snaps in practice this time.

Agreed, I think it's possible Cook is pretty good today and Oakland wins.