Wicked Smart: Celtics select Marcus Smart with No. 6 pick

[CouchsideSteve]

I know the expert's consensus is that this was a pretty good value, so I'll try to temper my POV accordingly, but... I absolutely hate this pick, especially with Randle available.

As a K-State alumn, I watch an unconscionable amount of Big 12 hoops, and was really underwhelmed by Smart. I just can't fathom the anecdote posted upthread that he could project as a better defender than Wiggins.

What I saw from Smart is a player who is strong, explosive and tenacious on both ends of the court, but also highly erratic and extremely temperamental. (The latter is more about his on-court demeanor than his dust-up with a fan.) In college, he was a slasher, not a distributor; and while the traditional PG archetype matters now less than ever, he's not a guy you want to run an offense through. On the other hand, there aren't many successful undersized two-guards with not only a poor shot, but poor shot selection instincts.

Again, folks with more cred than I have seem to like the pick. I just can't envision a realistic development trajectory where he becomes an All-Star. That disappoints me, given the available alternatives.

 

[bowiac]

I didn't watch him much, but with respect to the distributor comment, his assist rate (30.1%) was  perfectly fine, similar to Ennis's or Payton's.. The ball just moved through him a tremendous amount overall, as he also took a ton of shots (29.2% of all shots). In the NBA, I'd assume those sub 30% three pointers are going to disappear (I hope?). He actually took a ton of threes (164 to 222 two-point shots).
 
The realistic development trajectory is that he learns to shoot the three.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I know the expert's consensus is that this was a pretty good value, so I'll try to temper my POV accordingly, but... I absolutely hate this pick, especially with Randle available.

As a K-State alumn, I watch an unconscionable amount of Big 12 hoops, and was really underwhelmed by Smart. I just can't fathom the anecdote posted upthread that he could project as a better defender than Wiggins.

What I saw from Smart is a player who is strong, explosive and tenacious on both ends of the court, but also highly erratic and extremely temperamental. (The latter is more about his on-court demeanor than his dust-up with a fan.) In college, he was a slasher, not a distributor; and while the traditional PG archetype matters now less than ever, he's not a guy you want to run an offense through. On the other hand, there aren't many successful undersized two-guards with not only a poor shot, but poor shot selection instincts.

Again, folks with more cred than I have seem to like the pick. I just can't envision a realistic development trajectory where he becomes an All-Star. That disappoints me, given the available alternatives.

No this is where I am too. I'm trying to sell myself on the pick.....he's a great leader, the team fell apart when he was suspended and he rallied them back when he returned. Then I come back to my senses in that the college results really don't matter as its all about how you project in 3-5 years......and I return to being sad at the pick. I'm trying though.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The realistic development trajectory is that he learns to shoot the three.

 
I don't even think he has to learn to shoot the three as much as just become more consistent on his mechanics.  I'm not a shooting guru but it seems like he could have good mechanics on his shot but he's just not consistent.  Maybe it's because he expends so much energy on the court that he loses his mechanics every so often.  But hopefully that's correctable.
 
Also, I read somewhere that Travis Ford basically gave him the green light to shoot and wasn't going to discuss shot selection except for certain time/score situations.  Perhaps Smart's playmaking once Stevens has a chance to coach him up and when he doesn't feel like he has to do everything on the offensive end.
 
I believe Smart was shooting better before Cobbins went down - not a ton better but better nonetheless.

 

[radsoxfan]

Again, folks with more cred than I have seem to like the pick. I just can't envision a realistic development trajectory where he becomes an All-Star. That disappoints me, given the available alternatives.

 
I didn't think much of Smart when I watched him this year either, and I understand the sentiment.  I know the advanced stats like him, and I appreciate that he probably has a high floor and seems to be at worst a useful rotation guard and an above average defender.  Like others, I've been trying to convince myself Smart has more upside than I initially gave him credit for.  Hopefully he does.
 
The one part of your post I definitely disagree with is the idea that there were better available alternatives.  I was definitely not high on Randle, and don't think there was anyone else on the board I would rather have than Smart.  My biggest disappointment from the entire night is that I thought the top tier in this draft had 5 players, and they went 1-5. Sucks we picked 6 (and lost that coin flip!), and in my opinion no GMs made a mistake, but it is what it is.
 
In the end, the top 5 players from any draft rarely are picked 1-5, and of anyone available at #6, I think Smart has the best chance to leapfrog someone taken ahead of him. 

 

[riboflav]

I know the expert's consensus is that this was a pretty good value, so I'll try to temper my POV accordingly, but... I absolutely hate this pick, especially with Randle available.

As a K-State alumn, I watch an unconscionable amount of Big 12 hoops, and was really underwhelmed by Smart. I just can't fathom the anecdote posted upthread that he could project as a better defender than Wiggins.

What I saw from Smart is a player who is strong, explosive and tenacious on both ends of the court, but also highly erratic and extremely temperamental. (The latter is more about his on-court demeanor than his dust-up with a fan.) In college, he was a slasher, not a distributor; and while the traditional PG archetype matters now less than ever, he's not a guy you want to run an offense through. On the other hand, there aren't many successful undersized two-guards with not only a poor shot, but poor shot selection instincts.

Again, folks with more cred than I have seem to like the pick. I just can't envision a realistic development trajectory where he becomes an All-Star. That disappoints me, given the available alternatives.

 
Well, you must have seen the job he did guarding Wiggins this season. I'd say the guy is an very good with realistic potential to be an elite defender.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I saw Lute Olen speak once he began his session, "Imagine a player.I want to tlee me what you would call this guy. He is the toughest guy on the team. He is big for his position and defends likes hell. He is dream to deal with, he learns things when you tell him once. He always executes plays and game plans. Hw works out hard in the off season and rarely if ever gets hurt. But, he can't shoot. What do you call this guy? Sixth man"

 

[Auger34]

The thing that gives me hope about Smart learning to shoot (as opposed to Aaron Gordon),  is that he had fairly high FT%'s both years of college. As a freshman he shot 78% and as a sophomore he shot 73%. This might give credence to the theory mentioned above that he actually has solid shooting mechanics he just loses it sometimes

 

[reggiecleveland]

That's where we are. If he can shoot half decently he will be a good starter. Learning to shoot at the NBA level rarely goes well.

 

[kanga12]

 
Well, you must have seen the job he did guarding Wiggins this season. I'd say the guy is an very good with realistic potential to be an elite defender.

 
Here's the video highlights of Smart's defense against Wiggins (link)

 

[Cellar-Door]

That's where we are. If he can shoot half decently he will be a good starter. Learning to shoot at the NBA level rarely goes well.

Not sure why you say that. Shooting is generally considered the easiest thing to improve going from college to the NBA.
 
I think when Smart gets to the NBA the Celtics should tell him to stop taking 3s unless it is a wide open spot up. He shot 51.4% from inside the arc last year (up from 46.5% the year before.) If he can keep that up, as well as drawing fouls at anywhere near the rate he did in college (his .647 FTr last year probably isn't happening in the NBA as it would have been almost 10% better than Harden who had the highest FTr for a guard.) he would be putting up Dwyane Wade's career average. Except for two years Wade has survived by shooting 51% from 2, 76% from the line, not taking many 3s and only making 29% of them, and getting to the line at a .469 FTr.

 

[Brickowski]

In evaluating a player's percentage from beyond the arc (particularly guards who have the ball in their hands alot), you have to look at when in the shot clock the treys were taken. I would expect a lower percentage on shots taken in the last 1-2 seconds of the clock.  "Might as well shoot it, it's better than turning it over."

 

[fairlee76]

As a K-State alumn, I watch an unconscionable amount of Big 12 hoops, and was really underwhelmed by Smart. I just can't fathom the anecdote posted upthread that he could project as a better defender than Wiggins.

I don't watch a ton of OK State games, but from what I did watch, your take is spot on. Fingers crossed on Smart meeting his projections, but I sure as hell never got a Dwyane Wade at Marquette vibe when I watched Smart in college.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here's a comparison chart of statistics as a freshman.
 

 
http://hardwoodhoudini.com/2014/06/27/boston-celtics-marcus-smart-player-profile/

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

also, here's his shot chart:

 

[knucklecup]

If he was promised the #2 overall pick by Orlando (per Chad Ford), why did he go back to skewl?

I'm judging here but he doesn't come off as the type of guy who's returning to school for the right reasons...

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

What are the wrong reasons to return to school?

 

[Devizier]

What are the wrong reasons to return to school?

hoping to get an education?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Smart was a consensus top 5,probably top 3 pick last year. Even then everyone knew that this draft was much better. He didn't go back to get drafted higher, he went back because he wanted to go to school for another year.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

 
Well, you must have seen the job he did guarding Wiggins this season. I'd say the guy is an very good with realistic potential to be an elite defender.

I did... he equipped himself very well against Wiggins and virtually everyone else he guarded. But the reason Wiggins went from undisputed #1 pre-season, to a guy most teams had #2/3 before Embiid's injury was because his offensive game proved a bit underdeveloped.

What differentiates Wiggins from Smart is size - he can competently guard four positions. Smart will lock down a shooting guard, but struggles to stay in front of the quickest PGs.

At the end of the day, I think he'll be a successful NBA rotation player. I'm just not thrilled with Tony Allen v2.0 at #6 in a stacked draft.

 

[ALiveH]

smart was a consensus top-2 pick.  I remember reading there were rumors he could've been #1 overall last year at the time he decided to go back to school.  It's not ridiculous to think any of the first 6 or so picks this year would've been #1 overall last year.  Yes 2013 was that bad and 2014 is this good.
 
for example, cited here, among other places:
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2013/01/marcus-smart-nba-draft-scouting-report.html

 

[knucklecup]

What are the wrong reasons to return to school?

I think you know exactly what I mean but if you really need an explanation...

The wrong reasons to return to school = when you have no intention of graduating (actually reaping the benefits of going back) and you're promised to be either the first or second pick in the draft.

Either he got horrible business advice or he's a strange dude.

Edit: Why are you reaching the pinnacle of your life - being drafted top two - only to put it off a year in one of the deepest drafts in history? It makes literally no sense so it seems plausible to ask the question.

 

[knucklecup]

At the end of the day, I think he'll be a successful NBA rotation player. I'm just not thrilled with Tony Allen v2.0 at #6 in a stacked draft.

At the end of the day, you're complaining and not offering a solution to the problem you apparently see.

Besides the obvious Love trade, who would you have preferred at 6? Please explain.

Thanks.

 

[Blacken]

Edit: Why are you reaching the pinnacle of your life - being drafted top two - only to put it off a year in one of the deepest drafts in history? It makes literally no sense so it seems plausible to ask the question.

He liked college. He wanted to spend another year there. He valued that more than money. What are you not getting?

 

[knucklecup]

He liked college. He wanted to spend another year there. He valued that more than money. What are you not getting?

I'm implying that this is a business oriented kid who isn't going back to school because "he wanted to spend another year there."

Edit: you say this like you or I were in this kids shoes... This isn't me juggling the pros and cons of staying the summer in Bloomington IN with attractive women, beautiful weather, and a free life versus going home to work for the summer? I find your inquiry remarkably ignorant and naive of you.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I'm implying that this is a business oriented kid who isn't going back to school because "he wanted to spend another year there."

Edit: you say this like you or I were in this kids shoes... This isn't me juggling the pros and cons of staying the summer in Bloomington IN with attractive women, beautiful weather, and a free life versus going home to work for the summer? I find your inquiry remarkably ignorant and naive of you.

You're an idiot though.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

So you should factor that into your analysis

 

[amarshal2]

also, here's his shot chart:

This is actually pretty disappointing. I was really hoping he shot better than fucking awful from mid range. He doesn't need to be a 3pt shooter to be highly valuable offensively but if literally his only skill is going to the basket nba defenders will play him as such. Hopefully his shot improves like DRose, etc.

 

[amarshal2]

I'm implying that this is a business oriented kid who isn't going back to school because "he wanted to spend another year there."

Just say whatever it is you're trying to say already and stop posting vague shit as if we can all read your mind...assuming you have a point at all.

 

[knucklecup]

You're an idiot though.

You're entitled to your opinion but I'm content being younger than you, making more money than you, and being smarter than you. Your contributions to the board today haven't advanced the discussion. Let's discuss the C's. If you want to antagonize me, feel free to PM me.

 

[knucklecup]

Just say whatever it is you're trying to say already and stop posting vague shit as if we can all read your mind...assuming you have a point at all.

I'm asking a question that hasn't been answered yet. Why did he go back to school?

 

[amarshal2]

I'm asking a question that hasn't been answered yet. Why did he go back to school?

You are clearly implying that something is suspicious, not asking a question. Maybe your paycheck can help you understand the difference.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

You're entitled to your opinion but I'm content being younger than you, making more money than you, and being smarter than you. Your contributions to the board today haven't advanced the discussion. Let's discuss the C's. If you want to antagonize me, feel free to PM me.

Shit. Sick burn.

 

[knucklecup]

You are clearly implying that something is suspicious, not asking a question. Maybe your paycheck can help you understand the difference.

Right. The question has answers, so I'm speculating while asking... But I am asking the question because I do not know the answer to it. Perhaps you can enlighten me. I'm really trying to understand why a kid who's promised the #2 overall pick would return to school.

 

[knucklecup]

Shit. Sick burn.

It's not a burn. Just fact. Let's talk Smart. That's why we're here.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

. Let's talk Smart. .

That's gonna be difficult.

 

[knucklecup]

That's gonna be difficult.

Hey-oh. Burrrrrnnnnned.

But really, what's your take on the kid the Celtics are investing their future in?

 

[RetractableRoof]

Right. The question has answers, so I'm speculating while asking... But I am asking the question because I do not know the answer to it. Perhaps you can enlighten me. I'm really trying to understand why a kid who's promised the #2 overall pick would return to school.

This is a young man who has gone through some significant life experiences including if I'm not mistaken the loss of a sibling.  Who knows what is driving his decision making - but being intentionally vague to cause some blind speculation seems irresponsible to me.
 
There could be a myriad of reasons that he stayed in college, but one plausible reason might be a willingness to try to manipulate the draft.  Zach Levine got drafted by Minnesota and we all saw his reaction.  Maybe Smart decided he didn't want to be drafted by Cleveland, Orlando, or Washington?

 

[knucklecup]

This is a young man who has gone through some significant life experiences including if I'm not mistaken the loss of a sibling.  Who knows what is driving his decision making - but being intentionally vague to cause some blind speculation seems irresponsible to me.
 
There could be a myriad of reasons that he stayed in college, but one plausible reason might be a willingness to try to manipulate the draft.  Zach Levine got drafted by Minnesota and we all saw his reaction.  Maybe Smart decided he didn't want to be drafted by Cleveland, Orlando, or Washington?

How would waiting a year eliminate the possibility of being drafted by Cleveland, Orlando, or Washington?

You can manipulate it in far more efficient ways. Like the rumors of Randle tanking a workout for instance.

Just think too many millions of dollars are involved here to be an "on a whim" type of decision.

 

[amarshal2]

How would waiting a year eliminate the possibility of being drafted by Cleveland, Orlando, or Washington?

You can manipulate it in far more efficient ways. Like the rumors of Randle tanking a workout for instance.

Just think too many millions of dollars are involved here to be an "on a whim" type of decision.

Please propose a reasonable theory or stop posting.

Here's my speculation: Smart saw value in returning for a sophomore year. Or Smart felt he owed it to the school or his teammates/coaches to stay.

 

[knucklecup]

It is your theories that aren't reasonable in my opinion. My contention if there was a gun to my head is that Smart was given poor business advice.

Just haven't been able to find anything on the Internet to confirm or deny it.

 

[LuckyBen]

It is your theories that aren't reasonable in my opinion. My contention if there was a gun to my head is that Smart was given poor business advice.

Just haven't been able to find anything on the Internet to confirm or deny it.

Don't quit searching!!!

 

[Sprowl]

What differentiates Wiggins from Smart is size - he can competently guard four positions. Smart will lock down a shooting guard, but struggles to stay in front of the quickest PGs.

At the end of the day, I think he'll be a successful NBA rotation player. I'm just not thrilled with Tony Allen v2.0 at #6 in a stacked draft.

I don't see the Tony Allen comparison except from a body-type and aggressiveness perspective. If Tony Allen could have been a competent NBA point guard, keeping a tight handle on the ball, distributing the ball and making plays going to the hoop, he would have been a star. Instead, at least for the Celtics, he was an awful ballhandler and decision-maker, with a gift for the untimely turnover. There's every reason to think that Smart will be a competent floor general.
 

This is actually pretty disappointing. I was really hoping he shot better than fucking awful from mid range. He doesn't need to be a 3pt shooter to be highly valuable offensively but if literally his only skill is going to the basket nba defenders will play him as such. Hopefully his shot improves like DRose, etc.

Although his mid-range shooting percentage is low in a bad way, his percentage of shots taken from mid-range is low in a good way. That suggests a mindset conducive to efficiency.

 

[knucklecup]

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/06/27/5-things-to-know-about-marcus-smart/

This article explains the brother situation pretty well. Definitely loves his Mom and family, seems like a good kid from these quotes despite the media making a mountain out of a molehill after last years incident.

 

[knucklecup]

I don't see the Tony Allen comparison except from a body-type and aggressiveness perspective. If Tony Allen could have been a competent NBA point guard, keeping a tight handle on the ball, distributing the ball and making plays going to the hoop, he would have been a star. Instead, at least for the Celtics, he was an awful ballhandler and decision-maker, with a gift for the untimely turnover. There's every reason to think that Smart will be a competent floor general.

Agreed.

The Tony Allen comparison seems to be more of the OK State connection than anything with merit.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Right. The question has answers, so I'm speculating while asking... But I am asking the question because I do not know the answer to it. Perhaps you can enlighten me. I'm really trying to understand why a kid who's promised the #2 overall pick would return to school.

You want people to speculate then shit on their speculation.

 

[bowiac]

That's where we are. If he can shoot half decently he will be a good starter. Learning to shoot at the NBA level rarely goes well.

I don't understand this. Shooting the thing that's easiest to learn at the NBA level, as opposed to something like playing defense or athleticism.
 
Aaron Gordon is a pretty pointless NBA player if he doesn't learn to shoot. Dante Exum supposedly isn't a good shooter. That's two of the five guys who went ahead of him.
 
Every college player needs to improve to be a useful pro. Smart was one of the best players in college, with better athleticism and projection than most of the guys better than him. He's got a major flaw, but basically unless you're Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker, that's true of everyone.

 

[Cellar-Door]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/back-to-school-marcus-smarts-incredible-decision/
http://grantland.com/features/marcus-smart-returns-oklahoma-state/

He knew he was losing money, he just didn't give a shit. He wanted another year of being in an environment he liked.

 

[knucklecup]

Although his mid-range shooting percentage is low in a bad way, his percentage of shots taken from mid-range is low in a good way.

Didn't see this at first. Completely agreed.

I would rather see a hesitancy to shoot from mid-range than a Lance Stephenson esque overzealousness where he's launching and there's no semblance of an offense.

 

[knucklecup]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/back-to-school-marcus-smarts-incredible-decision/
http://grantland.com/features/marcus-smart-returns-oklahoma-state/

He knew he was losing money, he just didn't give a shit. He wanted another year of not being in an environment he liked.

Boom. Thanks man.