Why aren't there more 500-foot home runs?

soxhop411

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Really good article by ALEX SPEIER
For a night, baseball’s defining distances will no longer be 60 feet, 6 inches or 90 feet. Instead, the attention will turn to the quest for more distant reaches during Monday’s Home Run Derby, and the anticipation that maybe, just maybe, someone will launch a ball 500 feet.

It’s happened before, of course. Indeed, it’s happened at Fenway at least once — or so the single red seat in section 42, row 37, seat 21 suggests. Asked for his thoughts on whether anyone might have reached that remote location in Fenway Park, however, David Ortiz developed the first warning signs of the upper respiratory infection that sidelined him on Sunday amidst a brief spasm.

red seat?” Ortiz inquired. “Cough — bull — cough.”

The expulsion occurred twice, before Ortiz roared with laughter in the Sox dugout.

“I don’t think anyone has ever hit one there,” said Ortiz. “I went up there and sat there one time. That’s far, brother. Listen, do you see the No. 1 [Bobby Doerr’s retired uniform number on the façade above the right field grandstand]? I hit that one time. You know how far it is to that No. 1 from the plate? Very far. And you know how far that red seat is from the No. 1? It’s 25 rows up still. That’s the farthest I’ve ever hit the ball right there, and no one else has gotten to the No. 1 . . . The closest one that I have ever seen — I remember a day game, I hit a ball in that tunnel. But still — I crushed one and it wasn’t even close to that.”

Yet the historical record is fairly clear. The front page of the Boston Globe on June 10, 1946, featured a picture of Joseph Boucher holding the straw hat that Williams’s blast punctured while he sat in the famous seat.

And Ortiz is correct that he’s never come particularly close to it — particularly when factoring in the actual distance the ball would have traveled had it returned to ground level, rather than traveling “just” the roughly 502 feet from home plate (the official distance quoted by the Sox in describing the distance it traveled) before bouncing off Boucher’s head.

“If you adjust things so that the ball hits the red seat, 500 feet horizontal distance, 30 feet above ground level, then the ball would have gone about 535 feet,” said physicist Alan Nathan.

There’s no evidence that anyone at Fenway — especially in recent years — has approached the Williams blast. Other players throughout history — from Babe Ruth to Mickey Mantle to Reggie Jackson — have hit 500-footers — but they are exceptions rather than the rule.

In 2006, Greg Rybarczyk — now a member of the Red Sox front office — launched his Hit Tracker website to measure the true distance of home runs. According to his website (now run by ESPN Stats), the longest Fenway homer since 2006 was a missile in 2014 launched by David Ortiz, which would have gone an estimated 484 feet had it returned to ground level.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/13/why-aren-there-more-foot-home-runs/RYL4nuQcFltbTsf0lwABiK/story.html?event=event25

Rest of the article is at the above link.
 

SoxJox

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Whenever this topic comes up I'm reminded of this posting in Baseball Almanac.
 
In order to fully understand and appreciate long-distance hitting, a frame of reference should be established. Any drive over 400 feet is noteworthy. A blow of 450 feet shows exceptional power, as the majority of major league players are unable to hit a ball that far. Anything in the 500-foot range is genuinely historic. For perspective, consider the computerized measuring system implemented by IBM in most major league cities in 1982. By 1995, the sponsorship had changed, but the program had been expanded to include every big league ballpark. During those years, only one drive of 500 feet was confirmed by this system. Cecil Fielder of the Detroit Tigers is credited with powering a ball 502 feet in the air over the left-field bleachers at Milwaukee's County Stadium on September 14, 1991. Such renowned sluggers and extraordinary physical specimens as Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez have never come genuinely close to the 500-foot threshold. The best effort on the part of either player was Canseco's famous blast into the fifth level at Toronto's Sky Dome during the 1989 American League playoffs, which was estimated at 484 feet.
 
I'm also reminded of a shot in 1970 by Frank Howard - also mentioned in the posting above - at RFK stadium when I was 15.  I don't know how far it was but it landed in the right-centerfield upper deck - about 15-20 rows down from the top row of seating.  They used to paint the seats white for those prodigious shots and I went back the next year and made my way up to that seat.  Man was home plate a long, long way away.  I believe dead centerfield wall was at something like 415 ft.
 
Edit: Fun fact.  During the famous McGuire-Sosa duel in 1998, McGuire recorded 5 HRs over 500 ft, at 545, 527, 511, 509, and 501.  His average HR was 423.9 ft.  His shortest was 341.
 
Sosa recorded only 1 HR of exactly 500 ft.  His average HR was 402.2 ft.  His shortest was 340.
 

DJnVa

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I have no idea, but my general thought is: *someone* has to have the longest. Which means, of course, thgat someone has to hit a ball further than anyone else that's ever played. Of course it's going to seem unlikely.
 

Leather

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I swear Manny Ramirez hit one late in his Red Sox tenure that people thought might have actually been longer than Williams', but the measurer kept it shorter out of respect.
 
EDIT: It's referenced here, it was 2001 (wow).  
 
WELCOME TO BOSTON: Ramirez's first season in Boston was 2001. On June 23 of that year, he hit an absolute bomb that landed somewhere on the Mass Pike. Despite announcers and newspaper writers feeling it was the longest home run hit at Fenway Park, the official distance was measured at 501 feet -- one foot less than Ted Williams' iconic blast into the right-field stands that is marked by a red seat. Later that year, he would bow out of the final game of the season for "personal reasons." The Red Sox honored Cal Ripken, Jr. that night as it was Ripken's final game at Fenway Park.
 
 
And here's the vid (the 2nd one, at :50):
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTe_mpOmnpA
 

bankshot1

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I was sitting in the Fenway CF bleachers in July 1975 when I saw Jim Rice teed off on Steve Busby and hit the longest home-run I've ever seen at Fenway. This was before the "600 Club" so there was probably the jet-stream effect, and before the centerfield scoreboard, so there was just a moderately high wall behind the seats in CF. Rice hit a bomb to straight-away CF, that cleared the CF back-wall (behind the batters eye) and from my vantage point some 430-450 ft from home that ball still had an upward trajectory as it left Fenway. It was probably a 500 footer.
 
It was a holy-shit homer.
 
IMO the "600 Club" really cut down on summer blasts.
 

snowmanny

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Wasn't there an opposing player who hit a ball to RF a few years ago and there was a calculation that if it was hit with the same wind conditions as Ted's 502 HR it would have gone farther?  I'll try to find that.
 

SoxJox

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Not to call into doubt the "upward trajectory" you mention, but the same post to which I linked above includes this "analysis":  I'm not a physicist or mathematician and really can't argue one way or another, but...
 
One other aspect of misrepresentation should be explored. Again, the vast talents of Herculean Mickey Mantle have been comprised by individuals who have unwittingly perpetrated a hoax. Let it be emphasized that the mighty Mick was undoubtedly one of baseball's all time longest hitters. He was an honest, sometimes even self-effacing individual, who was never known to overstate his accomplishments. It is due to his immense popularity and constant involvement in the tape measure process that he is often thrust into the muddle of misrepresentation. By his own account he hit the longest home run of his career on May 22, 1963 at Yankee Stadium. The ball struck the facade on the right-field roof approximately 370 feet from home plate and 115 feet above field level. Almost everyone in attendance believed that the ball was still rising when it was interrupted in midflight by the roof structure. Based upon that belief, this drive has commonly been estimated at about 620 feet if left unimpeded. However, the reality is that the ball was already on its way down, and those reporting the trajectory were victimized by a common optical illusion. It is a scientific fact that if Mantle, or anyone else, had sufficient strength to hit a ball that was still traveling upward when it met the towering facade, he would also have enough strength to clear that same facade by a distance of at least 100 feet. In order for the ball to be rising at roof level, it would have to have been traveling at a lower angle than that which produces maximum distance. If Mantle had provided the same power or velocity, but had launched the ball at a higher and more efficient angle, it would have passed out of Yankee Stadium at a height of over 200 feet! Mantle hit the facade on two or perhaps three occasions, but never cleared it. By his own admission, during his 18-year career at Yankee Stadium, which included thousands of swing variables, he hit several balls to right field in an optimum manner. If he had the power to clear the roof by over 100 feet, he surely would have cleared it marginally on many occasions.
 
I imagine similar physical characteristics are at play in Fenway.  In either case, Rice's bomb is certainty a monster shot by any definition.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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SoxJox said:
Whenever this topic comes up I'm reminded of this posting in Baseball Almanac.
 
 
I'm also reminded of a shot in 1970 by Frank Howard - also mentioned in the posting above - at RFK stadium when I was 15.  I don't know how far it was but it landed in the right-centerfield upper deck - about 15-20 rows down from the top row of seating.  They used to paint the seats white for those prodigious shots and I went back the next year and made my way up to that seat.  Man was home plate a long, long way away.  I believe dead centerfield wall was at something like 415 ft.
 
Edit: Fun fact.  During the famous McGuire-Sosa duel in 1998, McGuire recorded 5 HRs over 500 ft, at 545, 527, 511, 509, and 501.  His average HR was 423.9 ft.  His shortest was 341.
 
Sosa recorded only 1 HR of exactly 500 ft.  His average HR was 402.2 ft.  His shortest was 340.
 
 
I have a VERY hard time thinking McGuire hit one 545 ft. That's probably beyond the limits of human capacity.
 
Mickey Mantle's HR out of Griffith Stadium was supposed to be 565 feet, but this article claims that to hit one 565 feet, the ball has to come off the bat at 131 MPH...10 MPH faster than has ever been recorded. So I'm skeptical.
 
My guess is that there were never too many 500 foot HRs, that such HRs are extremely rare once measured accuracy, and legendary feats like 545, 527, or 565 feet are just that: legendary and stuff of myth.
 

Max Power

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drleather2001 said:
I swear Manny Ramirez hit one late in his Red Sox tenure that people thought might have actually been longer than Williams', but the measurer kept it shorter out of respect.
 
EDIT: It's referenced here, it was 2001 (wow).  
 
 
I was at that game and remember the second one clearly. Not because I saw it go, but because most of the crowd never saw it. He hit it so high and fast that it was nearly impossible to track from the grandstand. In the video you can hear the muted reaction that turns into cheers when everyone realizes he's trotting around the bases.
 

JGray38

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I had seats on the 3b side for the Manny game. I was there with my dad. That home run was surreal. It went so high, so quickly that I lost sight of the ball and thought it was a pop up before I found it again as it was leaving the park.
 

JimBoSox9

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drleather2001 said:
I swear Manny Ramirez hit one late in his Red Sox tenure that people thought might have actually been longer than Williams', but the measurer kept it shorter out of respect.
 
EDIT: It's referenced here, it was 2001 (wow).  
 
 
And here's the vid (the 2nd one, at :50):
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTe_mpOmnpA
 
 

snowmanny

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snowmanny said:
Wasn't there an opposing player who hit a ball to RF a few years ago and there was a calculation that if it was hit with the same wind conditions as Ted's 502 HR it would have gone farther?  I'll try to find that.
I'm pretty sure it was this 469 foot shot by Hamilton in 2012.  Once he it that it made it much more believable that Ted Williams could have hit a wind-aided blast that went another thirty feet or so.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/v20698679/texbos-hamilton-crushes-a-threerun-homer/?c_id=mlb
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
 
I have a VERY hard time thinking McGuire hit one 545 ft. That's probably beyond the limits of human capacity.
 
Mickey Mantle's HR out of Griffith Stadium was supposed to be 565 feet, but this article claims that to hit one 565 feet, the ball has to come off the bat at 131 MPH...10 MPH faster than has ever been recorded. So I'm skeptical.
Or, as the article says, 119 with 30 mph winds.
 

Harry Hooper

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Yet the historical record is fairly clear. The front page of the Boston Globe on June 10, 1946, featured a picture of Joseph Boucher holding the straw hat that Williams’s blast punctured while he sat in the famous seat.

And Ortiz is correct that he’s never come particularly close to it — particularly when factoring in the actual distance the ball would have traveled had it returned to ground level, rather than traveling “just” the roughly 502 feet from home plate (the official distance quoted by the Sox in describing the distance it traveled) before bouncing off Boucher’s head.
 
 
 
The Globe might want to re-check that. I thought Boucher's hat was sitting on the empty seat next to him, and Williams' drive smashed into the hat. It did not bounce off Boucher's head.
 
Didn't Mantle's 565-foot drive actually reach that distance after bouncing and rolling a good amount?
 

yeahlunchbox

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drleather2001 said:
I swear Manny Ramirez hit one late in his Red Sox tenure that people thought might have actually been longer than Williams', but the measurer kept it shorter out of respect.
 
EDIT: It's referenced here, it was 2001 (wow).  
 
 
And here's the vid (the 2nd one, at :50):
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTe_mpOmnpA
 
I'm almost positive they had actually announced a distance on the telecast that was above 502 feet and then I assume when they realized that it would eclipse the Fenway Park record they downgraded it by a few feet.
 

Kliq

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I remember watching a YT video of the longest homeruns ever hit, and a disproportionate amount of them seemed to have been hit at the Rogers Centre and at Dodger Stadium. I have no idea why, I guess I assumed the "official measurement" is different in every ballpark, and the ones in LA and Toronto were more generous. 
 
For my money, this is the furthest baseball that has ever been hit. Measured at 535, it was found on a piece of driftwood on the other side of the Ohio river, meaning he hit it literally into another state.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A77LRaVgpOs
 

bob burda

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bankshot1 said:
I was sitting in the Fenway CF bleachers in July 1975 when I saw Jim Rice teed off on Steve Busby and hit the longest home-run I've ever seen at Fenway. This was before the "600 Club" so there was probably the jet-stream effect, and before the centerfield scoreboard, so there was just a moderately high wall behind the seats in CF. Rice hit a bomb to straight-away CF, that cleared the CF back-wall (behind the batters eye) and from my vantage point some 430-450 ft from home that ball still had an upward trajectory as it left Fenway. It was probably a 500 footer.
 
It was a holy-shit homer.
 
IMO the "600 Club" really cut down on summer blasts.
Very cool that you got to see that - I only got to read about it in Gammons' "Beyond the 6th Game." Gammons described the ball going out on the rise past the CF flag pole, and as you say, clearing the back wall.  IIRC Gammons wrote that Yawkey claimed it was "unquestionably the longest ever" hit at Fenway Park, and Yawkey went back a ways.
 

Average Reds

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Back in 1974, Mike Schmidt hit a ball to dead center in the Astrodome that was estimated at the time to be the longest batted ball in MLB history.  The ball hit a speaker hanging from the roof 329 feet from the plate and 117 feet high.  Estimates at the time were that the ball would have traveled more than 600 feet.  The estimate was later reduced to the 550 ft range, but no one was really sure how to estimate it and no video exists that I can find.
 
According to the ground rules, the speaker was in play.  (It had been assumed that no one could ever hit it.)  Had he been aware of the ground rules, Schmidt probably could have had an inside-the-park home run after the ball ricocheted off the speaker and into the field, but the two runners ahead of him froze and Schmidt had to retreat to first for the longest single in MLB history.
 
http://www.500hrc.com/500-hrc-articles/mike-schmidt-hit-the-longest-single-in-mlb-history.html
 

Toe Nash

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Harry Hooper said:
 
 
The Globe might want to re-check that. I thought Boucher's hat was sitting on the empty seat next to him, and Williams' drive smashed into the hat. It did not bounce off Boucher's head.
 
Didn't Mantle's 565-foot drive actually reach that distance after bouncing and rolling a good amount?
In The Last Boy Jane Leavy has a whole chapter about that which is worth reading (the whole book is, actually). It seems plausible that it went 535 feet on the fly assuming that the people who found the ball aren't lying, but would likely only have gone 460 feet without the wind.
 
I found this PPT about it http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Krannert-v3.pdf
 

Max Power

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It seems like the answer doesn't have anything to do with the equipment or players, but the new ballparks themselves. Those ridiculously long home runs were all aided by a whole lot of wind. As the seats behind the plate went higher and higher, the wind was cut down and the 500+ foot home runs disappeared. 
 

BosRedSox5

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There's a lot of buzz in this thread about Manny's light tower power in late June of 2001... but I was most impressed by the one he hit earlier that June.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77ilKxKJSa0
 
Hittracker (http://www.hittrackeronline.com/historic.php?id=2001_3837) believes that this homerun looked further than it was because of the vertically stacked decks at Skydome but he crushed this in a dome with no wind. Even if it was partially an optical illusion, it's one of the most visually impressive homers I've ever seen. 

 
 

alannathan

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Toe Nash said:
In The Last Boy Jane Leavy has a whole chapter about that which is worth reading (the whole book is, actually). It seems plausible that it went 535 feet on the fly assuming that the people who found the ball aren't lying, but would likely only have gone 460 feet without the wind.
 
I found this PPT about it http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Krannert-v3.pdf
That was my analysis in the Leavy book as well at the PPT that was linked.  That chapter of the Leavy book is well worth reading, no so much for my analysis as for Jane's superb detective work.  I wrote an article about the HR a few years back:  http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/mantle565.htm