Who's your top ten?

shawnrbu

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Any chance Ohio State leaps over FSU if both win on Saturday?
 
Why is TCU 3 spots ahead of Baylor?  Is it a given that Baylor will jump ahead of TCU if Baylor beats Kansas St?
 

Stanley Steamer

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DukeSox said:
They won't lose to tech
It wouldn't be following the script.
Still, for as bad as they've looked, and for as weak as their schedule may have been, I'm still shocked that the Seminoles, the only remaining undefeated team, is ranked behind 3 teams. This certainly never would have happened prior to this year. Generally, once you are ranked #1, you have to lose to be displaced, but clearly that has changed. The fact FSU has looked more and more vulnerable with each passing week has obviously swayed the poll.
The question now isn't whether they would make the playoff if they lose. It's if they win, is there a scenario where they could drop to #5.
 

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shawnrbu said:
Any chance Ohio State leaps over FSU if both win on Saturday?
 
Why is TCU 3 spots ahead of Baylor?  Is it a given that Baylor will jump ahead of TCU if Baylor beats Kansas St?

 
 
I don't think it's a given. Jeff Long has been saying for weeks that TCU has a better resume, implying that since the TCU/Baylor game was so close, Baylor's 14 pt. loss to 7-5 WVU is the difference maker. 
 
K-State might make this all moot by beating Baylor. That should be a fun game. 
 

BigMike

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shawnrbu said:
Any chance Ohio State leaps over FSU if both win on Saturday?
 
Why is TCU 3 spots ahead of Baylor?  Is it a given that Baylor will jump ahead of TCU if Baylor beats Kansas St?
 
the totality of TCU's schedule is better than Baylor's.  Yes Baylor beat TCU at home by a FG, but it was so freaking close.
 
TCU beat the snot out of Minnesota. Baylors best non conference win was against Buffalo
 
I just don't see how the committee could jump Baylor up to 3 or 4,  or could drop TCU down out of the top 4, barring some jarring occurrence (baylor wins Huge and TCU struggles badly)
 
I think Ga Tech will beat FSU this weekend. tech is the most complete team they have faced this year
 
I don't think OSU can make the top 4 unless someone in the top 4 loses 
 
Dec 10, 2012
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shawnrbu said:
Any chance Ohio State leaps over FSU if both win on Saturday?
 
Why is TCU 3 spots ahead of Baylor?  Is it a given that Baylor will jump ahead of TCU if Baylor beats Kansas St?
Minnesota mainly.
 

twothousandone

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Yes Baylor beat TCU at home by a FG, but it was so freaking close.
And that's the one topic that no voting system can address -- is the W worth a LOT, or if it's close, does the W barely count for more than the L. 
 
I don't know if Ohio State can win. If FSU beats Georgia Tech, I suspect they'll vault back above TCU. IMO, that would leave voters to affirmatively say "I think TCU is better than Baylor, even though they lost to Baylor."  I think that's a really tough call to make, but I'd admire the consistency. A bunch of good wins outweighs a single loss. 
 

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Yeah to me TCU and Baylor basically tied, so the committee is looking at the rest of their resumes to determine who is more deserving.
 
Dec 10, 2012
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soxhop411 said:
“@Jake_Trotter: Baylor has hired a PR firm (Kevin Sullivan Communications) to advocate its case for a playoff spot. Firm says they were hired last week”
 
 
BigSoxFan said:
I mean, objectively, I think that Baylor has a better resume than TCU and especially if they beat KState. But I hope that Baylor gets left out because the amount of whining has the potential to be outstanding. Also, Waco, Texas is a dump so fuck Baylor.
 
 
DukeSox said:
They won't lose to tech
 
 
shawnrbu said:
Any chance Ohio State leaps over FSU if both win on Saturday?
 
Why is TCU 3 spots ahead of Baylor?  Is it a given that Baylor will jump ahead of TCU if Baylor beats Kansas St?
 
 
twothousandone said:
And that's the one topic that no voting system can address -- is the W worth a LOT, or if it's close, does the W barely count for more than the L. 
 
I don't know if Ohio State can win. If FSU beats Georgia Tech, I suspect they'll vault back above TCU. IMO, that would leave voters to affirmatively say "I think TCU is better than Baylor, even though they lost to Baylor."  I think that's a really tough call to make, but I'd admire the consistency. A bunch of good wins outweighs a single loss. 
 
 
tims4wins said:
Yeah to me TCU and Baylor basically tied, so the committee is looking at the rest of their resumes to determine who is more deserving.
Who's your top ten?
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's too bad for Ohio State that they didn't go with the Baylor model and at least avoid mid-range non-conference opponents. Virginia Tech at least had a reasonable defense to feast on the freshman quarterback making his second start. Buffalo doesn't pose that kind of threat.

The head-to-head holds some weight, but TCU lost the nail-biter at Baylor, and home ice is worth a little. So Baylor has had every scheduling advantage possible - bad opponents, the one key conference opponent at home. If the committee elevates Baylor, I can see it having a significant effect on meaningful early-season non-conference games.

Watching a bit of ESPN, it seems they're all-in for Baylor. So at least we know where the bulk of that PR money went.
 

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Who's your top ten?
 
1 Bama
2 Ducks
3 Noles
4 Frogs
5 Baylor
6* OSU (would be 4 for me if Barrett didn't get hurt; reserve right to move them to 4 if they look good vs. Wisconsin)
7. Mich St (think they beat Arizona on a neutral field)
8. Arizona
9. Miss St
10. Wisconsin
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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1.  Florida State
2.  Alabama
3.  Oregon
4.  tOSU 
5.  TCU
6.  Baylor
7.  Arizona
8.  Michigan State
9.  Mississippi State
10. Kansas State
 
I know I'm in the (dwindling) minority putting FSU #1, but they are the defending champs, until they get beat I think they deserve to stay #1.   
 
Dec 10, 2012
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1. Bama
2. Oregon
 
 
 
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. FSU
 
 
 
7. MSU - E. Lansing
8. MSU - Starkville
9. Ole Miss
10.Arizona
 
bold = go to playoff
underline = probably goes to playoff
italic = should go to playoff
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
1. Alabama - the most impressive season package so far.
2. Oregon - a chance to turn around its only loss this season.
3. Ohio State - but a huge question mark without Barrett.
4. Florida State - they have to be in the playoff, but I consider the Tech game a pick-em. Credit for consistently beating almost-good teams. No signature wins, but there's value in the consistency.
5. Texas Christian - questionable schedule, but statistically impressive.
6. Mississippi - the Arkansas loss stands out, but Arkansas held Alabama to nothing on offense and lost by one. The Razorbacks, even at 6-6, are a threat to anyone.
7. Baylor - a miserable, embarrassing schedule, but they dominated it like no one else.
8. Mississippi State - faded late, but a solid season.
9. Michigan State - weak schedule and no signature wins, but a solid campaign and the top statistical team (correlation with winning teams) in the country.
10. Auburn - four losses, but a schedule that would make even Bear Bryant cry.
 

Quoting my own post because I'll go with the same ranking for this week. Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech and LSU are a very close 10-13.
 

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1. FSU - Over the last two sessions they're 27 for their last 27 including a national championship. Jameis Winston, even with all the noise can be great. They're number one until they lose.

2. Bama - If I was a betting man I'd bet they'll win the national championship.

3. Oregon - Great team playing in a very good conference. I'm licking my chops to see Bama v. Oregon.

4. tOSU - a physical club good enough to beat any of my top three teams.

538 puts TCU in. I could care less if any of TCU, tOSU, Baylor or FSU are on or out. No matter what happens January is going to be entertaining as all hell.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/college-football-playoff-update-does-ohio-state-have-a-shot/
 

Senator Donut

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Wow, the margin between 4th and 6th is razor thin, just 8 points:
Code:
4 Baylor      1,265
5 Ohio State  1,262
6 TCU         1,257
I don't have a problem with any of these three teams getting left out; however, the committee is going to look really dumb if the leave out last week's number three. As everyone has been saying all season, weekly rankings were an incredibly bad idea.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Domer said:
Wow, the margin between 4th and 6th is razor thin, just 8 points:

Code:
4 Baylor      1,2655 Ohio State  1,2626 TCU         1,257
I don't have a problem with any of these three teams getting left out; however, the committee is going to look really dumb if the leave out last week's number three. As everyone has been saying all season, weekly rankings were an incredibly bad idea.
 

That's true. It's hard to remind people that OSU dropped because it is a human ranking and they were trying to prepare us for OSU being left out if they looked bad in a close win over Wisconsin while TCU and/or Baylor racked up a rout.

There's no good way to do this. Four is just as problematic, if not more problematic than two.
 

Senator Donut

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I don't agree. I think 2014 was just a weird year when there just wasn't any separation between the teams ranked fourth, fifth, and sixth. The committee simply created its own controversy with its weekly rankings.

I'd much rather have that controversy than have to leave out Florida State, Alabama, or Oregon.
 

tims4wins

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tims4wins said:
 
1 Bama
2 Ducks
3 Noles
4 Frogs
5 Baylor
6* OSU (would be 4 for me if Barrett didn't get hurt; reserve right to move them to 4 if they look good vs. Wisconsin)
7. Mich St (think they beat Arizona on a neutral field)
8. Arizona
9. Miss St
10. Wisconsin
 
Glad I put the asterisk next to OSU. I would have moved them to 4th.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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I haven't watched nearly as much college football this year as I usually do, so I don't feel like I know the teams as well as I should. I didn't see Oregon, TCU or Baylor play at all, and I saw very little of the other Top 10 teams that might have been in the mix (Arizona, Michigan State, Georgia or Georgia Tech).  I did see a few Alabama games, some FSU and Ohio State down the stretch. 
 
The team I am curious to get people's thoughts on is Ohio State.  Why are people so down on them?  Is it just because the B1G sucks this year?   From what I have seen they look pretty good-they won at both Michigan state and Minnesota, and demolished an admittedly overrated Wisconsin team-with a third string quarterback, while rendering Melvin Gordon meaningless.  They look like they have good talent and speed on both sides of the ball. Meyer can win big games.  And Cardale Jones, while he is the third-stringer, is bigger than about 75% of the guys trying to tackle him.  
 
So what am I missing? (and I'm asking to be educated, I'm not being sarcastic at all).  Why do folks seem to be genuinely torqued off about tOSU getting in?  Is it just that Baylor and TCU are better?
 
Dec 10, 2012
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Was (Not Wasdin) said:
I haven't watched nearly as much college football this year as I usually do, so I don't feel like I know the teams as well as I should. I didn't see Oregon, TCU or Baylor play at all, and I saw very little of the other Top 10 teams that might have been in the mix (Arizona, Michigan State, Georgia or Georgia Tech).  I did see a few Alabama games, some FSU and Ohio State down the stretch. 
 
The team I am curious to get people's thoughts on is Ohio State.  Why are people so down on them?  Is it just because the B1G sucks this year?   From what I have seen they look pretty good-they won at both Michigan state and Minnesota, and demolished an admittedly overrated Wisconsin team-with a third string quarterback, while rendering Melvin Gordon meaningless.  They look like they have good talent and speed on both sides of the ball. Meyer can win big games.  And Cardale Jones, while he is the third-stringer, is bigger than about 75% of the guys trying to tackle him.  
 
So what am I missing? (and I'm asking to be educated, I'm not being sarcastic at all).  Why do folks seem to be genuinely torqued off about tOSU getting in?  Is it just that Baylor and TCU are better?
The people that are down on OSU have seen UM and VT play other teams fairly often.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Was (Not Wasdin) said:
I haven't watched nearly as much college football this year as I usually do, so I don't feel like I know the teams as well as I should. I didn't see Oregon, TCU or Baylor play at all, and I saw very little of the other Top 10 teams that might have been in the mix (Arizona, Michigan State, Georgia or Georgia Tech).  I did see a few Alabama games, some FSU and Ohio State down the stretch. 
 
The team I am curious to get people's thoughts on is Ohio State.  Why are people so down on them?  Is it just because the B1G sucks this year?   From what I have seen they look pretty good-they won at both Michigan state and Minnesota, and demolished an admittedly overrated Wisconsin team-with a third string quarterback, while rendering Melvin Gordon meaningless.  They look like they have good talent and speed on both sides of the ball. Meyer can win big games.  And Cardale Jones, while he is the third-stringer, is bigger than about 75% of the guys trying to tackle him.  
 
So what am I missing? (and I'm asking to be educated, I'm not being sarcastic at all).  Why do folks seem to be genuinely torqued off about tOSU getting in?  Is it just that Baylor and TCU are better?
The people that say the B1G sucks this year are probably the same people that also say that the Pac-12 and the Big 12 suck. It seems that unless you're the SEC, your conference sucks.
 
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
The people that are down on OSU have seen UM and VT play other teams fairly often.
 
And the educated people know that OSU lost to VT starting a freshman at QB in his 2nd game that also had an offensive line decimated by injuries. The OSU team that lost to VT is a completely different team that you saw against Wisconsin and the committee correctly took that into consideration.
 
Strength of schedule matters and OSU had a tougher schedule and a much much tougher non-conference schedule (as much as some people don't want to admit that). It was basically a toss-up between those three teams, but blame the Big 12 for not having a conference championship game. The correct 4th team was picked.
 

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FL4WL3SS said:
blame the Big 12 for not having a conference championship game
 
I think there's an exemption for conferences with less than 12 teams to have a title game, but assuming the Big 12 had petitioned for that, it means Baylor would have beaten Kansas State twice, thus hurting their strength of schedule. It's nice to blame it on the conference for their chicken shit decision to not name a champion (one true champion, my ass), but I'm still not sure the end result would have been what Baylor fans hoped it would have been.
 
Baylor was done in by three things: 1) their non-conference schedule was pathetic, 2) they lost to a hopelessly mediocre West Virginia and 3) Oklahoma lost at home to Oklahoma State (from the standpoint of a Texas fan, this is the most delicious of all).
 
Nevertheless, the incessant bitching by Baylor fans is music to my ears and I am doing everything within my power to needle them as much as humanly possible. The sense of entitlement is strong with that fan base and, like Texas Rangers fans (there is a strong overlap there), they need to be reminded that the sport existed long before their team got good.
 

ethangl

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Bosoxen said:
 
Nevertheless, the incessant bitching by Baylor fans is music to my ears and I am doing everything within my power to needle them as much as humanly possible. 
 
Exactly. Karma's a bitch, Art.
 

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I don't have any love for Baylor, but the loss to WVU, in Morgantown, is much better than losing to 6-6 VaTech at home for the Buckeyes. 
 
WVU lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas
VaTech lost to East Carolina, GaTech, Pitt, BC, Miami, and Wake Forest
 
Hopelessly mediocre would be kind words about VaTech this year.
 

twothousandone

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I think the voting makes it pretty clear they weigh wins against good teams way more than losses. And a close loss to a good team can count for a little. VT or WV? Who cares -- a loss to someone outside the top 20 is a loss. 
 
In trying to get "the best' contenders in the playoff, (IMO) the committee decided not to get caught up in bad losses. "Here's why this is a really good team" seems to be more the reasoning. I think Baylor beating TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State is comparable to OSU beating Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The committee seemed to think OSU's resume was a bit better. 
 
I think support for my opinion that they were looking for good wins is that Baylor moved ahead of TCU after beating K-State. TCU beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State. They didn't have a win comparable to Baylor's win over TCU. That was Baylor beating a top 10 team. TCU didn't beat a top 10 team.  (Ohio State did beat a top 10 team, as well.)
 

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
Oklahoma was #4 and KSU was #7 when TCU beat them.
You don't reward people for playing teams early enough in the year that the ratings aren't accurate yet; end of year assessments are based on how well the opponents did over the course of the year, not where they happened to be ranked at the time (barring obvious changes in team competitiveness--e.g. if Oklahoma had lost their Heisman-candidate QB after that game, that'd change things some).
 
Dec 10, 2012
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SumnerH said:
You don't reward people for playing teams early enough in the year that the ratings aren't accurate yet; end of year assessments are based on how well the opponents did over the course of the year, not where they happened to be ranked at the time (barring obvious changes in team competitiveness--e.g. if Oklahoma had lost their Heisman-candidate QB after that game, that'd change things some).
I'm of the opinion and jeff Long admitted it, that the teams are judged by the totality of the schedule.  Just as in MLB where a win in April counts the same as a win in September.
 
And you're creating a chiocken/egg situation. If Oklahoma and Kansas State had beaten TCU, they would indeed be ranked. Michigan State and Kansas State are also very even teams; saying one is top 10 and the other isn't, is arbitrary and disgenuine. 
 
 
FL4WL3SS said:
Harhar

Tell me why I'm wrong tough guy.
Kent State and Cincinnati? Not good. It's been explained above by VTech isn't that good.
 
TCu beat Minnesota by 23, Ohio State beat Minnesota by 7.
Penn State, probably the 4th best team OSU played, is just as bad as VTech, and if the referring had been better, OSU would have lost.
 
You have to be complete homer to say that the games that could have been lost are close to comparable. TUC had the tougher schedule.
Baylor > Michigan State
KSU > Wisconsin
Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas are all better than anyone else OSU played.
 

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I'm of the opinion and jeff Long admitted it, that the teams are judged by the totality of the schedule.  Just as in MLB where a win in April counts the same as a win in September.
That's exactly my point. If the Os were preseason #1 the east and finished last, at the end of the season you don't say that the Red Sox May victories against them were quality wins against a good team while the Yankees July wins against the same Os were crappy wins. You realize that the Six beat a crappy team that happened be overrated until you were able to judge them on the totality of the season.

Beating a team that was ranked #7 after a few weeks but turns out to suck and finishes well out of the rankings doesn't count as beating a top 10 team when evaluating strength of victory in the context of the season.
 
Dec 10, 2012
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SumnerH said:
That's exactly my point. If the Os were preseason #1 the east and finished last, at the end of the season you don't say that the Red Sox May victories against them were quality wins against a good team while the Yankees July wins against the same Os were crappy wins. You realize that the Six beat a crappy team that happened be overrated until you were able to judge them on the totality of the season.

Beating a team that was ranked #7 after a few weeks but turns out to suck and finishes well out of the rankings doesn't count as beating a top 10 team when evaluating strength of victory in the context of the season.
Exactly . At the time of the loss, Virginioa Tech still was considered a good team; at the end, not so much.
 
Kansas State was a good team at beginning, middle, and end. After the bowls, KSU will be ranked ahead o MSU, just wait. Regardless, calling Kansas State #11 not top-10 is a bit semantic.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I'm of the opinion and jeff Long admitted it, that the teams are judged by the totality of the schedule.  Just as in MLB where a win in April counts the same as a win in September.
 
And you're creating a chiocken/egg situation. If Oklahoma and Kansas State had beaten TCU, they would indeed be ranked. Michigan State and Kansas State are also very even teams; saying one is top 10 and the other isn't, is arbitrary and disgenuine. 
 
 
Kent State and Cincinnati? Not good. It's been explained above by VTech isn't that good.
 
TCu beat Minnesota by 23, Ohio State beat Minnesota by 7.
Penn State, probably the 4th best team OSU played, is just as bad as VTech, and if the referring had been better, OSU would have lost.
 
You have to be complete homer to say that the games that could have been lost are close to comparable. TUC had the tougher schedule.
Baylor > Michigan State
KSU > Wisconsin
Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas are all better than anyone else OSU played.
We'll agree to disagree because you already have your mind made up. Yes, I live in Columbus and root for OSU, but objectively looking at the schedule, body of work and situations surrounding the losses, OSU is the clear #4.
 
You can argue about which teams you think are better than which, but the strength of schedule metrics tell me all I need to know.
 

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FL4WL3SS said:
We'll agree to disagree because you already have your mind made up. Yes, I live in Columbus and root for OSU, but objectively looking at the schedule, body of work and situations surrounding the losses, OSU is the clear #4.
 
You can argue about which teams you think are better than which, but the strength of schedule metrics tell me all I need to know.
 
Which strength of schedule metrics are you looking at that make it so clear to you? Sagarin has TCU higher than both Ohio State and Baylor, so maybe you're only looking at the ones that back your rooting interest?
 
I'm not saying tOSU isn't a defensible choice. A case could have been made for any of the three. But you can't tell me there wasn't at least a small money/political motivation in the selection process. Swap the names Texas and Oklahoma for TCU and Baylor, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the outcome is different.
 
Funny that we've been clamoring for a playoff for years, and in its very first year, the selection process proves to be no better than the previous system. At least those four teams will have to duke it out on the field. So that's some progress.
 

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This is way better than before, Matt Hinton said it well
 
 
So thank god for the playoff. Thank god it arrived when it did, sparing America from a truly idiotic melodrama over whether 12-1 Alabama or 12-1 Oregon should have gotten the shaft while the other advanced to face undefeated Florida State. Regardless of what you think of the outcome, thank god that Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State got the full accounting they deserved in the room where an actual decision was made, instead of being exiled to a purgatorial on-deck circle by a Rube Goldberg machine with no fail-safe. The annual imbroglios that defined the BCS era were always frustrating; now, they seem like barely comprehensible artifacts from a simpler, stupider time.
The playoff has already given us so much more. In place of a narrowly defined debate that relied on random upsets to generate intrigue, the final month of this season delivered consequential games on a weekly basis in every major conference even absent a single earthshaking surprise. Eight teams made it to the final weekend with at least quasi-realistic playoff hopes intact, and they took the field in six games with direct playoff ramifications knowing they couldn’t survive a loss. By late Saturday night, the Crimson Tide, Ducks, and Seminoles had all effectively clinched their places in the bracket, and the suspense was only beginning to reach a fever pitch. The debate over the final spot consumed Twitter, talking heads, and coaches alike, right up until the formal unveiling of the bracket on Sunday. Nothing about Ohio State’s ascension into the final four felt like a foregone conclusion.
 

twothousandone

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
 
Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas are all better than anyone else OSU played.
I think the committee's own rankings say that THEY disagree. THEY say Minnesota is better than Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas
 
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
And you're creating a chiocken/egg situation. If Oklahoma and Kansas State had beaten TCU, they would indeed be ranked. 
 
And if they'd beaten TCU, Baylor's victory against TCU wouldn't have counted as much.
 
But the voters have the option to consider all this (as II's quote notes.). A voter can rank what s/he believes are the top 20. See how the top four did against that top 20. Make adjustments in the second 10 based on some analysis. Re-examine how the top 4 or 5 did against the top 20. That makes it chicken/egg/chicken/egg/chicken with the intent to get it right.
 
Dec 10, 2012
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twothousandone said:
I think the committee's own rankings say that THEY disagree. THEY say Minnesota is better than Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas
 
I had already discussed Minnesota above.
 

Bosoxen

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Infield Infidel said:
This is way better than before, Matt Hinton said it well
 
The end result is better. The process of selecting the teams left a lot to be desired. Even if it's just not releasing weekly rankings, they need to do something.