Who's Your Top Ten - 2018 CFB

Ale Xander

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1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. tOSU
5. Oklahoma Land Thieves
6. Clemson
7. South Bend Community College
8. West Virginia
9. Kentucky
10. UCF
 
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johnmd20

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Who are 5 and 8?
I assume you mean 5 and 7 and it's Ale's thing, I assume you do not read the game threads.

Should he just list the team names? Yes. Does he think he's being funny? Yes. Is it funny? No, not to me, it's annoying af.

Land Grabbers = Oklahoma
South Bend CC = Notre Dame
 

Bosoxen

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I assume you mean 5 and 7 and it's Ale's thing, I assume you do not read the game threads.

Should he just list the team names? Yes. Does he think he's being funny? Yes. Is it funny? No, not to me, it's annoying af.

Land Grabbers = Oklahoma
South Bend CC = Notre Dame
No kidding. Everyone knows it's Land Thieves or Dirt Burglars, not Land Grabbers.

But seriously, if you can't suss out who South Bend CC is, I fear for your powers of deductive reasoning. Or you just don't know anything about college football.
 

johnmd20

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No kidding. Everyone knows it's Land Thieves or Dirt Burglars, not Land Grabbers.

But seriously, if you can't suss out who South Bend CC is, I fear for your powers of deductive reasoning. Or you just don't know anything about college football.
Yes, South Bend is obvious. The nicknames are dumb but that really should be obvious. I prefer Land Thieves myself.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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I assume you mean 5 and 7 and it's Ale's thing, I assume you do not read the game threads.

Should he just list the team names? Yes. Does he think he's being funny? Yes. Is it funny? No, not to me, it's annoying af.

Land Grabbers = Oklahoma
South Bend CC = Notre Dame
Thank you.
And last night it just said SBCC, and no, I'm not clever enough to figure that out.
 

Dehere

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1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. Georgia

4, Ohio St

5. Notre Dame

6. Clemson

7. LSU

8. WVU

9. Auburn

10. Washington
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I’m cool with nicknames as long as I don’t have learn a new language.

1. Bama
2. Dawgs
3. Tigers, Death Valley North
4. Tigers, Death Valley South
5. OSU
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Mounties
9. Kentucky
10. UCF.
 

Ale Xander

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In case someone can't figure out the directly above - (post #8)

#3=Clemson
#4=LSU
#8= West Virginia
#5=Ohio State
#2=Georgia
#1=Alabama
 

Domer

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1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Auburn
9. Washington
10. UCF
 

canderson

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1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Notre Dame
4) OSU
5) Dirt burglars
6) LSU
7) West Virginia
8) Auburn
9) Kentucky
10 Clemson
 
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LoweTek

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Do you guys give UCF a playoff berth if they remain undefeated and continue to dominate opponents?

@Uconn 56-17
@ SC State 38-0
@NC Hurricane Florence Cancellation
FAU 56-36
Pitt 45-14

Remaining:
SMU
@Memphis
@ E Carolina
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
@USF
 

gmogmo

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Do you guys give UCF a playoff berth if they remain undefeated and continue to dominate opponents?

@Uconn 56-17
@ SC State 38-0
@NC Hurricane Florence Cancellation
FAU 56-36
Pitt 45-14

Remaining:
SMU
@Memphis
@ E Carolina
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
@USF
No, that's an awful schedule....feel bad for them, but going undefeated against that slate proves nothing.
 

jon abbey

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Alabama
LSU
Clemson
winner of next week’s Georgia/Florida game
 

Zososoxfan

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1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. LSU
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma
8. Georgia
9. OSU
10. Florida

Notre Dame gets the nod ATM for consistency, but their SOS should not carry them to the Final 4 over an SEC team with only 1 or 2 "good" losses (i.e. close losses to good teams). If Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame and one of Texas/OU and Michigan/OSU runs the table, will be interesting to see how the Committee looks at ND, UT/OU, UM/OSU.
 

Ale Xander

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1. Winner of game in 2 weeks between Bama and LSU
2. Loser of game in 2 weeks between Bama and LSU
3. Clemson
4. WInner of next week's Cocktail Party
5. Loser of next week's Cocktail Party
6. SBCC
7. Texas
8. Land Thieves from Norman
9. UCF
10 (tie). tOSU
10 (tie). Meechigan
 

canderson

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1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. LSU
6. Texas
7. Oklahoma
8. Georgia
9. OSU
10. Florida

Notre Dame gets the nod ATM for consistency, but their SOS should not carry them to the Final 4 over an SEC team with only 1 or 2 "good" losses (i.e. close losses to good teams). If Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame and one of Texas/OU and Michigan/OSU runs the table, will be interesting to see how the Committee looks at ND, UT/OU, UM/OSU.
Texas and Oklahoma can also play again in the conference title game. I doubt Texas runs the table before then (I see a loss vs OK State this weekend) but time will tell.
 

ConigliarosPotential

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Notre Dame gets the nod ATM for consistency, but their SOS should not carry them to the Final 4 over an SEC team with only 1 or 2 "good" losses (i.e. close losses to good teams). If Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame and one of Texas/OU and Michigan/OSU runs the table, will be interesting to see how the Committee looks at ND, UT/OU, UM/OSU.
Notre Dame's SOS is perfectly cromulent, and there's a good chance their win over Michigan could prove to be better than any win of any other contending team. If they run the table, they're in.

And by the way...are we sure the SEC Is *that* good? Alabama clearly is that good, but I'm not convinced the SEC is having an up year by its standards; it's still the best conference, but not to the point that a two-loss LSU or Florida or Georgia deserves to get in over an undefeated Notre Dame, or even a one-loss conference champion. (Or possibly even a one-loss Notre Dame.)
 

snowmanny

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According to 538 there are 11 teams that have a >75% chance of making it into the playoff if they win out (including the conference championship game) and therefore largely (but not in all cases completely) control their own destiny:

Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgis, Ohio St, Michigan, Kentucky, Washington State, West Virginia.
 

nolasoxfan

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Here is what the committee will do

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan

Here is how I feel it should look:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. ND
 
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canderson

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Here is what the committee will do

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan

Here is how I feel it should look:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
ND beat Michigan, one of the best wins of the season. Why the swap?
 

nolasoxfan

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ND beat Michigan, one of the best wins of the season. Why the swap?
Ooof. That’s my bad. I meant ND. Cut and paste/ edit error.
I do think that Michigan wins a rematech on a neutral field, but ND got the W and should be ranked higher.

Edit: fixed.
 

Zososoxfan

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If the top 4 win out, I think we have the Final 4 with the only question whether a UM win over OSU and in the Big10 Championship are enough to vault over ND. If any of 2-4 lose any game, it gets interesting and if Bama loses, shit gets REAL interesting.

That being said, I really wish ND's SOS gets exposed for how it weak it is. N.B. Rankings in parentheses that follow are current S&P. I may have the homer glasses on, but if UM wins out, there is no doubt in my mind that they should jump ND. UM's best wins are against PSU (12) and Wisconsin (13), with a matchup against @OSU (9) and another one against one of NWU (68), Wisco (13), Purdue (25), or Iowa (29) in a championship remaining, not to mention their win @MSU (30).

ND OTOH, has a week 1 win at home against UM obviously, but otherwise their best win is against Stanford (35) at home and @VA Tech (61). The rest of their schedule ranks in the 60s and 70s and a couple of the worst teams in the country to round it out. Even OU and WVU have had better SOS, to say nothing of UGA. ND may be one of the best 4 teams in the country, but they have not proved it to the same extent of these other conference teams. Until the committee dings them in a situation like this, ND will never consider joining a conference. Although I do accept the fact that their schedule usually produces much better competition - i.e. FSU at 75 and USC at 43 are unusually low. But this is why a conference schedule is important - unless ND joins the PAC12 there will always be good consistent competition on their schedule.
 

Average Reds

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Regardless of how strong Michigan is now, I can’t see them jumping ND without a loss.

I think if they win out, the final four are set. But I’d be shocked if they all win out.
 

gmogmo

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If the top 4 win out, I think we have the Final 4 with the only question whether a UM win over OSU and in the Big10 Championship are enough to vault over ND. If any of 2-4 lose any game, it gets interesting and if Bama loses, shit gets REAL interesting.

That being said, I really wish ND's SOS gets exposed for how it weak it is. N.B. Rankings in parentheses that follow are current S&P. I may have the homer glasses on, but if UM wins out, there is no doubt in my mind that they should jump ND. UM's best wins are against PSU (12) and Wisconsin (13), with a matchup against @OSU (9) and another one against one of NWU (68), Wisco (13), Purdue (25), or Iowa (29) in a championship remaining, not to mention their win @MSU (30).

ND OTOH, has a week 1 win at home against UM obviously, but otherwise their best win is against Stanford (35) at home and @VA Tech (61). The rest of their schedule ranks in the 60s and 70s and a couple of the worst teams in the country to round it out. Even OU and WVU have had better SOS, to say nothing of UGA. ND may be one of the best 4 teams in the country, but they have not proved it to the same extent of these other conference teams. Until the committee dings them in a situation like this, ND will never consider joining a conference. Although I do accept the fact that their schedule usually produces much better competition - i.e. FSU at 75 and USC at 43 are unusually low. But this is why a conference schedule is important - unless ND joins the PAC12 there will always be good consistent competition on their schedule.
ND also handily beat the NWU (68) team you referenced Michigan (struggled to) beat. Odd to not bring up Syracuse either...Pitt's "decent" as well. Most importantly, ND beat Michigan straight up, and did so with a running back playing quarterback. Zero shot Michigan will pass them if they both win out, zero.
 

The Needler

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ND also handily beat the NWU (68) team you referenced Michigan (struggled to) beat.
Eh, NU was within 3 points in both games late in the 4th quarter. Both Michigan and ND outgained them by a couple hundred yards, but neither team “handily” beat them. They were each winnable by NU if a single play had gone differently late in the fourth quarter.
 

Zososoxfan

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ND also handily beat the NWU (68) team you referenced Michigan (struggled to) beat. Odd to not bring up Syracuse either...Pitt's "decent" as well. Most importantly, ND beat Michigan straight up, and did so with a running back playing quarterback. Zero shot Michigan will pass them if they both win out, zero.
You're probably right that no matter what, if both UM and ND finish undefeated ND finishes ahead of UM, but I disagree with the idea that ND's week 1 win over UM at home makes for a better resume considering their respective SOS. Mind you, this is something ND doesn't have much control over. VA Tech, FSU, and Stanford really let them down this year.

More specifically, you're right that ND had a better result against NWU than UM, totally valid. Cuse is a good team, but they only rank at 58, well behind the teams UM has beaten and ND hasn't played them yet. Pitt is ranked 71 and falls squarely in my post regarding most of ND's opponents falling in the 60s and 70s. I think the Committee will consider dropping ND behind UM if ND struggles with their remaining games and UM smokes OSU (highly unlikely) and thrashes a Big10 West team that asserts itself as actually elite (top ~15).
 
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PaulinMyrBch

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The interesting set of circumstances hitting talk shows is the chance that UGA beats Bama in SECCG, with Clemson, ND, and UM winning out. You’d have UGA jumping into top 2 or 3 most likely and Bama as a committee decision for top 4 inclusion. Seems unlikely, but its possible that ND or UM could get left out if Bama loses a close one. If that happens the cry for 6 or 8 would intensify.
 

RedOctober3829

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The interesting set of circumstances hitting talk shows is the chance that UGA beats Bama in SECCG, with Clemson, ND, and UM winning out. You’d have UGA jumping into top 2 or 3 most likely and Bama as a committee decision for top 4 inclusion. Seems unlikely, but its possible that ND or UM could get left out if Bama loses a close one. If that happens the cry for 6 or 8 would intensify.
If Alabama loses in the SEC title game to Georgia and has 1 loss, they're definitely getting in and deservedly so. Michigan might even get in over an undefeated ND due to Michigan's superior SOS.
 

tims4wins

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It is interesting, and I said this elsewhere, that I think Michigan could play with Bama, but I fully expect them to lose to OSU. They would also lose to Bama because Harbaugh teams have a way of finding different ways to shoot themselves in the foot, but it would be a competitive game IMO.
 

ConigliarosPotential

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That being said, I really wish ND's SOS gets exposed for how it weak it is. N.B. Rankings in parentheses that follow are current S&P. I may have the homer glasses on, but if UM wins out, there is no doubt in my mind that they should jump ND. UM's best wins are against PSU (12) and Wisconsin (13), with a matchup against @OSU (9) and another one against one of NWU (68), Wisco (13), Purdue (25), or Iowa (29) in a championship remaining, not to mention their win @MSU (30).

ND OTOH, has a week 1 win at home against UM obviously, but otherwise their best win is against Stanford (35) at home and @VA Tech (61). The rest of their schedule ranks in the 60s and 70s and a couple of the worst teams in the country to round it out. Even OU and WVU have had better SOS, to say nothing of UGA. ND may be one of the best 4 teams in the country, but they have not proved it to the same extent of these other conference teams. Until the committee dings them in a situation like this, ND will never consider joining a conference. Although I do accept the fact that their schedule usually produces much better competition - i.e. FSU at 75 and USC at 43 are unusually low. But this is why a conference schedule is important - unless ND joins the PAC12 there will always be good consistent competition on their schedule.
To belatedly respond to this...Notre Dame is essentially in a conference this season. Unfortunately, the conference in question is the ACC Coastal Division. Not a lot any team could do about that; as you've noted, their schedule could have looked a lot more fearsome in retrospect than it's turned out. Also, though, I wonder if simply looking at SOS ratings at the end of a season is a bit too simplistic. When Notre Dame played Stanford, they were #7 in the AP poll, and Virginia Tech was ranked as well; those rankings obviously don't seem right at this point, but a) when those games took place, they felt at the time like bigger deals than they do in retrospect (crushing a Top 10 team in Week 5, after any initial poll errors have self-corrected to a reasonable extent, was a big deal, and b) Notre Dame's performance in those games arguably had something to do with the downward spiral each team suffered thereafter. (And on the flip side, while Michigan was ranked #14 going into Week 1, Notre Dame was #12, so that felt like a battle of Top 15 equals that only in retrospect feels like a possible playoff play-in game.)

You could go down the line with other teams apart from Notre Dame and conduct similar examinations of at-the-time SOS vs. retrospect SOS, of course. And I'm certainly sympathetic to traditional SOS arguments. But I think Notre Dame is close enough to Michigan in light of its at-the-time SOS (and head-to-head victory, and 0 losses vs. 1) that there's no way Michigan could jump Notre Dame if both teams win out.
 

RedOctober3829

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To belatedly respond to this...Notre Dame is essentially in a conference this season. Unfortunately, the conference in question is the ACC Coastal Division. Not a lot any team could do about that; as you've noted, their schedule could have looked a lot more fearsome in retrospect than it's turned out. Also, though, I wonder if simply looking at SOS ratings at the end of a season is a bit too simplistic. When Notre Dame played Stanford, they were #7 in the AP poll, and Virginia Tech was ranked as well; those rankings obviously don't seem right at this point, but a) when those games took place, they felt at the time like bigger deals than they do in retrospect (crushing a Top 10 team in Week 5, after any initial poll errors have self-corrected to a reasonable extent, was a big deal, and b) Notre Dame's performance in those games arguably had something to do with the downward spiral each team suffered thereafter. (And on the flip side, while Michigan was ranked #14 going into Week 1, Notre Dame was #12, so that felt like a battle of Top 15 equals that only in retrospect feels like a possible playoff play-in game.)

You could go down the line with other teams apart from Notre Dame and conduct similar examinations of at-the-time SOS vs. retrospect SOS, of course. And I'm certainly sympathetic to traditional SOS arguments. But I think Notre Dame is close enough to Michigan in light of its at-the-time SOS (and head-to-head victory, and 0 losses vs. 1) that there's no way Michigan could jump Notre Dame if both teams win out.
If you look at the Sagarin ratings of each team on Michigan's and ND's schedules it's similar. The average Sagarin rating of a team on Michigan's schedule is #50 while on ND's it is #58. Michigan has more games against teams with a top 30 rating(5) than ND does(2), but has more games against teams with a plus-100 rating(3) than ND does(2). ND is hurt by teams on it's schedule having poorer seasons than initially thought(FSU, VT, Navy, USC) and Michigan did not schedule a very tough OOC(Western Michigan and SMU other than the ND game). ND also is starting to schedule some teams they normally wouldn't have(Ball State, Vandy) that weakens it's schedule. Next year they have Bowling Green and New Mexico on the schedule.
 

The Needler

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Also, though, I wonder if simply looking at SOS ratings at the end of a season is a bit too simplistic. When Notre Dame played Stanford, they were #7 in the AP poll, and Virginia Tech was ranked as well; those rankings obviously don't seem right at this point, but a) when those games took place, they felt at the time like bigger deals than they do in retrospect (crushing a Top 10 team in Week 5, after any initial poll errors have self-corrected to a reasonable extent, was a big deal, and b) Notre Dame's performance in those games arguably had something to do with the downward spiral each team suffered thereafter. (And on the flip side, while Michigan was ranked #14 going into Week 1, Notre Dame was #12, so that felt like a battle of Top 15 equals that only in retrospect feels like a possible playoff play-in game.)
No, no, no, no, just no. This is like arguing that OBP is too simplistic and we should go back to just caring about batting average. If a team is ranked #7 in the polls at week 5, but by week 10 they're not even receiving votes, then the rankings hadn't "self-corrected to a reasonable extent." It turns out Stanford wasn't very good. We thought they were good because they had beaten SC and Oregon, but it turned out those teams weren't very good either.

Notre Dame shouldn't get extra credit because we lacked information about a team early in the season and they were the lucky beneficiary of playing that team at the right time.

The argument that ND beat Michigan h2h is a legitimate one, but the "we thought team x was good at the time" is just regressive, and the suggestion that Notre Dame beating a team may have "had something to do with the downward spiral each team suffered thereafter" is less "arguable" than it is baseless excuse-making.
 

ConigliarosPotential

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The argument that ND beat Michigan h2h is a legitimate one
See, I think this is actually a less legitimate argument than most people seem to think it is - they played each other on opening day, when neither team is really anything like what it is now. If Notre Dame played Michigan this Saturday, or hypothetically in a playoff semifinal (which certainly could happen if Alabama or Clemson loses before the season is done), would their first game have any relevance to the second? I doubt it.

And that's kinda what I'm getting at in my previous post. Teams are not static over the course of a three-month season - some get better, some get worse, and most get better or worse on a week-to-week basis. To use that previous example again, the Stanford team Notre Dame defeated wasn't necessarily the same Stanford team that has sucked over the second half of the season. (Or to reframe the point with a different example: shouldn't Michigan be dinged even more for losing to Notre Dame than you might think because Wimbush was playing instead of Book, and Wimbush's mediocrity has been proven pretty conclusively since then?) To be fair, this is more of a philosophical argument than a practical one; in the absence of clearer data, using "Average Stanford" as a proxy for "Week 5 Stanford" in determining Notre Dame's SOS is probably all you can do. But then, don't more recent results carry more weight with the committee than do earlier ones? They certainly do for the March Madness committee in basketball, as does player unavailability on account of injury or suspension at various points during the season. And as soon as you accept that chronology matters at all, it seems to me that one ought to be open to the possibility that SOS isn't necessarily as clear-cut a metric as we always think it is.