Who's on Third? I don't know

johnnywayback

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Why do people think Marco Hernandez is good? I think Lin has a chance to be considerably better if the power is for real. His approach at the plate has always been much better.
Not sure what you mean by that, but Hernandez has repeatedly showed the ability to hit for average (with a bit of pop):
2015 (Portland) 326/349/482 832
2015 (Pawtucket) 271/300/409 709
2016 (Pawtucket) 309/345/444 789
2016 (Boston) 294/357/373 730

Lin, on the other hand, had never OPS'd 700 at any level until 159 at-bats in AA this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Marco Hernandez: 2620 PA (minors) 5.0% bb rate/ 16.5% K rate. Lin: 1954, 9.7% BB rate/15.5% K rate. This year for Lin: 10.9% / 14.7%.

I guess I should say he has better pitch recognition, or he's more patient, or w/e. Lin's problem before this year was a complete lack of power and not being able to hit the ball out of the infield. He seems to have fixed that while maintaining/improving his plate discipline. Marco definitely has the higher floor.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Not sure what you mean by that
I think he means that Lin has always shown much better BB rates than Hernandez, with K/BB ratios under 2:1, while Hernandez looks like a pretty severe hacker by comparison. Of course that doesn't make Lin the better hitter of the two -- clearly he isn't, or at least hasn't been -- but when you see a guy with minor league K/BB ratios as high as Hernandez', it's hard not to wonder what will happen to him when he's consistently facing guys who can command multiple pitches around the edges of the zone.

EDIT: Or, what bosox79 said.
 

TheoShmeo

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Apologies if this has been discussed up thread.

But as the Sox continue to get limited production out of third, I remain a little confused about not "rushing" Devers.

The argument seems to be that he needs more seasoning, his defense is still not major league adequate and bringing him up early would retard his development in some way. It also might be tied to starting his service time clock. And perhaps on some level they don't want to reduce Devers' trade value.

But reasons to try him now include:

- he just might be better than every other option they have;

- he's already theirs; they don't have to give up assets to acquire him;

- if he is not ready, they can just send him back down; I don't see this being some psychological trauma for him; and even if he goes back down, having experienced a taste of the bigs might help him on the farm as it should incentivize him and, in turn, reduce the adjustment period the next time he comes up.

Fundamentally, I don't buy the "don't rush him, you'll damage him," argument, as if he's some delicate Carl Crawford type who will wet his pants at a negative crowd reaction (whether real or imagined). Now, yeah, if his D is inadequate and he needs to spend time learning how to play third (which seems bizarre to me but Wade Boggs got better with time, so it's not as if we don't have an easy example of that), I would get that. And again, it's not as if it's irrevocable. They can pull the plug any time they like.

But there is probably something I'm missing because giving Devers a shot in July, before the trade deadline, seems like the best move, and it seems clear that they are dead set against it.

So no need to reply with "not happening." I know.

The questions in my view are: Why not? And does that answer make sense?
 

Wake's knuckle

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Lin has already played some third for the Sox. He looks better than Panda, not quite as good as Marrero, but the sample size is tiny.

I'm not sure I understand your question about "how he looks at the plate". See above about sample size.
Indeed. Stats don't say much with small sample sizes, but often you can see pretty quickly if someone is looking overmatched. I don't get a chance to see many games.
 

AB in DC

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But reasons to try him now include:

- he just might be better than every other option they have;
Fundamentally, I don't buy the "we have no idea if he's any good until we try it" argument. I'd like to think that the Red Sox organization has a pretty good way to measure any minor-leaguer's ability and how it compares to their major league counterparts. Not that their metrics are necessarily 100% accurate, but it's gotta be a lot better than "I dunno, let's give it a shot".
 

TheoShmeo

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Fundamentally, I don't buy the "we have no idea if he's any good until we try it" argument. I'd like to think that the Red Sox organization has a pretty good way to measure any minor-leaguer's ability and how it compares to their major league counterparts. Not that their metrics are necessarily 100% accurate, but it's gotta be a lot better than "I dunno, let's give it a shot".
Nice straw man.

That's not what they would be saying.

They would be:

- pointing to his demonstrated ability and track record thus far;

- realizing the total suck they have now at third;

- taking into account that other guys have handled the jump at an early age well; and

- making a move that has upside, limited downside and is not irrevocable.

But yeah, if you reduce it down to your formulation, I would of course agree.
 

Koufax

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Lin's .800 OPS is not total suck. Give this kid a chance.
 

j44thor

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Something to consider with Devers.
Prior to this season he had never had an OPS over .800 in pro-ball.
By comparison Xander had over 500 AB's between AA & AAA with an OPS well over .800 before getting promoted shortly before his 21st B-day.

If Devers gets a cup of coffee in Aug/Sept he will be younger than X was when he debuted with less ABs in the minors. Betts didn't play in the majors before his 21st B-day neither did Benintendi.
 

MikeM

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The questions in my view are: Why not? And does that answer make sense?
My best guess is that beyond the team's own internal evaluation on Devers' readiness to make the jump, his defense just isn't fundamentally strong enough to help mitigate some of the risk that an expedited run plays out to be an overall failure.

That and as I stated earlier, DD simply doesn't share the same sense of urgency in regards to fixing 3B as many here and in the media do. So he's not going to rush a potential cornerstone piece going forward just in the hope that they shut up about it now.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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What, exactly, is the bolded opinion based upon?

One does not need to look very far into the past to see an example of how over-promoting a player who looks good in the minors/spring training can affect that player's development.
Such as?

Look at Jackie Bradley Jr. Look at David Ortiz. Look at Byron Buxton. There are all kinds of player development paths out there. Sometimes you're ARod and you hit the big leagues running and never look back. Sometimes you start out with some promise, then struggle, lose your starting job, get non-tendered by your team, work hard to get a new opportunity, and then succeed. We have a sense of Rafael Devers' talent and potential but none of us have any idea what Rafael Devers' path will look like.

I mean, lets unpack this.

The idea that Theo and I are criticizing, as I understand it, goes something like this: we shouldn't rush him to the majors because he might not be ready and then struggling at the major league level for a month and getting sent back down might cause some kind of emotional trauma that has a long term impact on his future success.

Is that about right?

Because that idea, it seems to me, is: (a) wildly speculative; (b) treats Rafael Devers like some kind of precious little snowflake rather than, like, a professional athlete; and (c) probably understates the degree that Rafael Devers has already learned to overcome adversity to make it to where he is today, and the inevitability that he will face more challenges to make it at the major league level.

I get that this particular kind of speculation is a kind of conventional wisdom in professional baseball but I think it's crazy to let that kind of theory interfere with putting the best guy in the organization in the lineup when what we have right now is a major black hole.
 

TheoShmeo

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Lin's .800 OPS is not total suck. Give this kid a chance.
No doubt, if he keeps that up, stick with him.

I have some trouble seeing that happen and the sample size is of course small.

But yeah, ride Lin first.
 

MikeM

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I mean, lets unpack this.

The idea that Theo and I are criticizing, as I understand it, goes something like this: we shouldn't rush him to the majors because he might not be ready and then struggling at the major league level for a month and getting sent back down might cause some kind of emotional trauma that has a long term impact on his future success.

Is that about right?
I think it boils down to a simple matter of pointing out that the driving reason behind a promotion should first and foremost be a belief that he will actually succeed/stick, and involve a lot more 'the kid is ready" talk then "can't be any worse" logic.

Which doesn't appear to be the driving reason behind your counter stance there.
 

joe dokes

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The idea that Theo and I are criticizing, as I understand it, goes something like this: we shouldn't rush him to the majors because he might not be ready and then struggling at the major league level for a month and getting sent back down might cause some kind of emotional trauma that has a long term impact on his future success.

Is that about right?

Because that idea, it seems to me, is: (a) wildly speculative; (b) treats Rafael Devers like some kind of precious little snowflake rather than, like, a professional athlete; and (c) probably understates the degree that Rafael Devers has already learned to overcome adversity to make it to where he is today, and the inevitability that he will face more challenges to make it at the major league level.

I get that this particular kind of speculation is a kind of conventional wisdom in professional baseball but I think it's crazy to let that kind of theory interfere with putting the best guy in the organization in the lineup when what we have right now is a major black hole.
Conventional wisdom isn;t the only speculation going on here.
The "idea" you cite is something of a strawman. It's a whole lot less "he'll be ruined," than "he may not be ready" or "he's very talented, and while playing MLB today wont destroy him, 150 AAA appearances might maximize his chances to be a superduperstar."

You make it sound so very simple. Lets take JBJ. His struggles obviously did not derail his career. But (unknowable, of course) maybe a different treatment would have led to even greater success sooner. (Maybe not having him get 423 PA's of 42 OPS+ would have meant not playing the 1st half of the following season in the minors. maybe).

Ultimately, the Sox have Devers, a guy who (maybe) can increase their chance of winning right now by some amount greater than zero. And on the flipside of that is (maybe) some time at AAA will make him a better major league baseball player by some even greater amount.

I doubt that reality is (or that the Sox think reality is) that struggles at MLB will permanently "ruin" Devers. Much more likely is that they don't think that the amount he will help the Red Sox is enough to offset the amount *he* will be helped by a bit more time in the minors.

As long as they are holding their own without him, both masters can be served.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Deven Marrero really is an impressively bad hitter. He seems to be well liked in the clubhouse, judging by all the social media activity, where he's often involved, and he seems to be a talented defender, so I guess I understand why they keep him around, but my goodness:

In 183 MLB PA, he's got 61K against 10 BB, with just 10 XBH, and just 49 TB, for a SLG of .288.

A .288 SLG!

Of those who qualify for the batting title, just three players in the AL have a lower SLG, which, in some ways, defeats my argument that Marrero is extra awful. I can't believe Alex Gordon has a .284 SLG. That's a serious fall from grace.

It really behooves them to give just about anyone else a shot there.
 

simplicio

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The absolute craziest thing about Marrero though is his WRC+ split of -46/214 vs RHP/LHP.
 

joe dokes

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Deven Marrero really is an impressively bad hitter. He seems to be well liked in the clubhouse, judging by all the social media activity, where he's often involved, and he seems to be a talented defender, so I guess I understand why they keep him around, but my goodness:

In 183 MLB PA, he's got 61K against 10 BB, with just 10 XBH, and just 49 TB, for a SLG of .288.

A .288 SLG!

Of those who qualify for the batting title, just three players in the AL have a lower SLG, which, in some ways, defeats my argument that Marrero is extra awful. I can't believe Alex Gordon has a .284 SLG. That's a serious fall from grace.

It really behooves them to give just about anyone else a shot there.

My benchmark for post-1968 offensive futility was Padre Enzo Hernandez in 1970.
618 PAs
9 2B
3 3B
0 HRs
12 RBI (12!!!!!!!)
adding up to a -hard-to-fathom batting line of:
222/295/250 (250 SLG!!!!!!!!!!!)


If Marrero needs a nickname, "Enzo" might work. Or maybe Deven "the Baker" Marrero.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernaen01.shtml
 

pantsparty

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The absolute craziest thing about Marrero though is his WRC+ split of -46/214 vs RHP/LHP.
The insane wRC+ against LHP is because he's only had 31 PAs against lefties this year. For his career he has a wRC+ of 88 against LHP, which is bad for a 3B but I think the team can deal with that given his defense. He absolutely has to be taken out against RHP, though. He is 7 for 76 against RHP this year and strikes out 35% of the time.
 

grimshaw

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Marrero had a wRC+ of 37 in 2016 which was 5th worst in all of the minor leagues (1504 players). He also ops'd .487.

Chavis is 8th overall among players with at least 100 at bats (1655) with a 180. Among those ahead of him are a 31 year old, a 27 year old, a 24 year old in high A and Jorge Soler.
Devers is tied for 52nd (wRC+ 157.

Good times are ahead.
 
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oumbi

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The absolute craziest thing about Marrero though is his WRC+ split of -46/214 vs RHP/LHP.
I took a glance at Marrero's game logs for this season. He seems to have a pattern of hitting for 1 to 2 games followed by hitless streaks of 3 to 4 games. Basically, he has a record of sustained and fairly consistent bad hitting. This is as opposed to JBJ, who seems to oscillate between being Marrero and Hank Aaron for periods of time.

But, just to add a cheery note to this discussion, Marrero currently has a 5 game hitting streak going and is 7 for 17 in his tiny streak, two of those hits are doubles and he has a pair of walks as well.
 

gedman211

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Holt went yard tonight!
If you're keeping score:
we have Marrero, Lin, Peralta, Sandoval and Holt all looking for ABs at 3rd. KC's in the hunt, so Moustakas is probably staying put. Donaldson doesn't seem to playing at his usual high level at the moment- and I'm not sure the Sox and Jays really want to make a deal with one another anyway. That leaves Frazier, who had an impressive June, as the most likely trade candidate.
Personally, I see Peralta and Sandoval getting released by 8/1. That leaves us with a Holt/Marrero platoon until they either make a move for Frazier, or feel Devers can hack it in the bigs, or get frustrated with Holt's mediocre 3rd base defense. I'm hoping the inevitable expunging of Peralta/Sandoval happens soon, so we can get a look at Devers in AAA. Thank God for Devon Marrero though. His solid play has made all of this much less urgent.
 

Idabomb333

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I think it boils down to a simple matter of pointing out that the driving reason behind a promotion should first and foremost be a belief that he will actually succeed/stick, and involve a lot more 'the kid is ready" talk then "can't be any worse" logic.

Which doesn't appear to be the driving reason behind your counter stance there.
Adding on to this, I think it's a little odd that I haven't seen anyone make the following point here yet. I think Ben is the one who said that when a player reaches AAA, he's basically ready. Players there are practicing against the best available competition until there's an open spot on the roster and/or they show they're the best option. Devers is still in AA, and there hasn't been any talk of moving him to AAA that I've seen. While it's certainly possible for someone to show in AA that he's ready for AAA or MLB, it seems Devers hasn't shown either one. He apparently needs more time in AA, probably more than he needs to round out an mLB career in Pawtucket.
 

Cesar Crespo

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10 for 22 now in his last 6 with 1091 OPS!
Over his last 31 games and 94 PA: .244/.290/.407 on a .333 BAbip, but 6bb/30k. With his defense, that line is acceptable but it definitely isn't sustainable. The guy's career ISO in the minors is a pathetic .082. Ironically enough, according to Bref, Lin has already provided as much value as Marrero this year. I'd really like to see him get a real chance at 3b before they make any type of move. Granted Lin's career ISO in the minors is the same pathetic .082 but there's reason to believe he's made significant improvements this year in AA with his .191 ISO and new approach at the plate.

Although it's worth noting that when Marrero was Lin's age (6 months older, same level), he was slashing .291/371/.433 in 307 PA with 34bb/57k at the AA level, was then promoted to AAA mid year and slashed .210/.260/285 in 202 PA with 12bb/37k. He then hit .328/.443/.414 in 70 AFL PA with 11bb/19k. In 184 PA at AA this year, Lin hit .302/.379/.491 with 20bb/27k. I don't remember seeing anything about Marrero changing his swing like Lin though and he's always struck out more.

If the changes are real and stick, Lin could potentially be a very interesting piece to the Sox next year as Chris Young and Brock Holt's replacement. He could conceivably get 350-400 PA playing OF/2b/3b/SS while other guys take a day off. He'd allow the Sox to carry a Bryce Brentz type bat too since you wouldn't need to carry another OF with Lin around. Let's see what we have and give him 80-100 PA this month before the deadline.
 

grimshaw

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This is probably moot by July 31, but curious who would go back down when/if Holt comes back. I would have thought Lin a few days ago, but Farrell indicated that he could back up CF which could give him the edge over Marrero.

Marrero is easy to root for and his teammates seem to like him, but his defense really can't impact games enough at 3b to justify the bat for an extended period. At SS, sure you can live with it a bit more.

If Lin keeps showing a decent bat, I hope he gets more of the starts since the defensive downgrade probably isn't too great.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is probably moot by July 31, but curious who would go back down when/if Holt comes back. I would have thought Lin a few days ago, but Farrell indicated that he could back up CF which could give him the edge over Marrero.

Marrero is easy to root for and his teammates seem to like him, but his defense really can't impact games enough at 3b to justify the bat for an extended period. At SS, sure you can live with it a bit more.

If Lin keeps showing a decent bat, I hope he gets more of the starts since the defensive downgrade probably isn't too great.
I have a hard time believing that on this roster, the ability to back up CF is much of a tipping point when it comes to the 24th/25th spot on the roster. Assuming Holt is back, do they really need six guys capable of playing CF? JBJ, Benintendi, Betts, Young, and Holt can all play there with varying levels of competence. The decision on Lin vs Marrero would have to come down to who is playing better at that moment, not how many positions they can cover.
 

MikeM

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This is probably moot by July 31, but curious who would go back down when/if Holt comes back. I would have thought Lin a few days ago, but Farrell indicated that he could back up CF which could give him the edge over Marrero.

Marrero is easy to root for and his teammates seem to like him, but his defense really can't impact games enough at 3b to justify the bat for an extended period. At SS, sure you can live with it a bit more.

If Lin keeps showing a decent bat, I hope he gets more of the starts since the defensive downgrade probably isn't too great.
Well, there is also the lingering Sandoval factor too. If he gets another chance I'm guessing Marreo, who's done great as a vs lefties compliment piece there, gets the nod in that scenario. Although here is the hoping that the .241/.281/.352 line Panda is putting up down in AAA atm finally forces the FO to fully abandon that pipe dream.

I wouldn't be shocked to see DD dangle Lin out as a sell high piece in his deadline search for an 8th inning guy (if/when Smith's comeback isn't looking like a bankable solution), with the hope that Holt eventually gives us some potential help at 3rd after we don't bring in anybody else there.
 

grimshaw

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I have a hard time believing that on this roster, the ability to back up CF is much of a tipping point when it comes to the 24th/25th spot on the roster. Assuming Holt is back, do they really need six guys capable of playing CF? JBJ, Benintendi, Betts, Young, and Holt can all play there with varying levels of competence. The decision on Lin vs Marrero would have to come down to who is playing better at that moment, not how many positions they can cover.
I doubt he sees much if any time there, but the fact that Farrell offered that makes me think it has a bit more significance. Lin can also pinch run which is in his favor.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I wouldn't be shocked to see DD dangle Lin out as a sell high piece in his deadline search for an 8th inning guy (if/when Smith's comeback isn't looking like a bankable solution), with the hope that Holt eventually gives us some potential help at 3rd after we don't bring in anybody else there.
I doubt Lin could fetch a 6th inning guy, never mind a set up man. He's a feel good story and someone easy to root for but I doubt he has much value. Lin's performance this year is promising but it's only 208 PA (.300/.376/.489), he was repeating the league for the 3rd time, and while 23 isn't old for AA, it's not young as far as actual prospects are concerned. Other GMs are going to put far more value on the 1770 PA he had prior to this season where he slashed .235/.308/.306.

I'm one of the biggest prospect humpers on the board and even I have reservations on Lin. I'm guessing trade offers would be based on Lin's floor which is "Never to reach the Majors again if demoted." I think his ceiling as an every day player or Mini Tony Phillips offers enough potential value to just hold on to Lin than trade him for the mediocre MR you may acquire for him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I doubt he sees much if any time there, but the fact that Farrell offered that makes me think it has a bit more significance. Lin can also pinch run which is in his favor.
Kinda. Lin is faster but Marrero has better base stealing ability. Neither one is Dave Roberts.
 

MikeM

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I doubt Lin could fetch a 6th inning guy, never mind a set up man. He's a feel good story and someone easy to root for but I doubt he has much value. Lin's performance this year is promising but it's only 208 PA (.300/.376/.489), he was repeating the league for the 3rd time, and while 23 isn't old for AA, it's not young as far as actual prospects are concerned. Other GMs are going to put far more value on the 1770 PA he had prior to this season where he slashed .235/.308/.306.

I'm one of the biggest prospect humpers on the board and even I have reservations on Lin. I'm guessing trade offers would be based on Lin's floor which is "Never to reach the Majors again if demoted." I think his ceiling as an every day player or Mini Tony Phillips offers enough potential value to just hold on to Lin than trade him for the mediocre MR you may acquire for him.
Agreed, and I didn't mean to imply a straight up trade scenario there.

It's more of a partial prediction that DD wouldn't let the deadline pass without doing anything, and needing to put together a decent total package out of a somewhat limited pool of interesting/"expendable" options.
 

Cesar Crespo

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FWIW, Lin had no split in the minors.

500 PA vs L .244/.321/.321 51bb/96k
1478 PA vs R .241/.313/.326 141bb/212k

This year he's at .291/.370/.475 vs R in 164 PA and .333/.395/.538 vs L in 44 PA.
 

ponch73

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Hopefully, Lin's short-term effectiveness has improved Dombrowski's tenuous negotiation position. I'd rather the Sox stand pat than invest additional resources in a 33-year-old 3B, even a serviceable one, unless the asking price is amazingly low.
 

Sampo Gida

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I'm impressed with Lins plate discipline and contact skills thus far. I'd like to see them stand pat at 3B for now. If Hanley produces like he has at DH the last week or so then we are good. Id like insurance there though. Chris Carter might be worth taking a flyer on.
 

simplicio

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X out of the game with a HBP to the hand so Lin and Marrero are both looking like starters for the moment. Who's the next backup?
 

soxhop411

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X is day to day, X-rays were negative per DOB just now.
Xander Bogaerts "not encouraged" by how his bruised right hand feels after getting hit by a pitch in first inning. Said it's "pretty sore." Hopeful that ice and other treatment will help healing process.

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0674807461240115282-4

“@TimBritton: The always candid Xander Bogaerts: “It doesn’t feel good. Hopefully it feels a lot better tomorrow.” Hand was pretty swollen.”


“@PeteAbe: Xander Bogaerts said the x-rays were encouraging but how he feels right now isn’t. Hand is swollen and sore.”
 

Lowrielicious

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I'd guess Holt would be first option if he's good to go and if it's short term. But if it's looking to be longer is it Devers time?

With Lin sliding across to SS when X came out and Marrero in at 3b, could we see Devers taking Lins side of the platoon with Marrero at 3b and Lin staying at SS?
Ease Devers in to MLB rather than tossing him in the deep end with the full time job.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Unlikely it's Devers time yet. Keep in mind that not only is Holt rehabbing, but so is Sandoval. I know that's not what anyone wants, but he's still here and he can't stay in Pawtucket forever (he's halfway through his 20-day limit now). If they need a body, it very well could be him.

I suspect they can get through the weekend with what they have (X playing in an emergency situation), then there's the break, so they can ostensibly give X a week to recover before having to consider reinforcements.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I suspect they can get through the weekend with what they have (X playing in an emergency situation), then there's the break, so they can ostensibly give X a week to recover before having to consider reinforcements.
I don't get the bolded part, there are plenty of flights from Boston to Tampa that can have Holt, Panda, Peralta, or Devers on them (but it won't be Devers). If X can't play, he can't play and should be DL'd. He'd only miss these 3 games (which if he can't play he wouldn't play) and with the break of 4 days he'd only miss 3 on the back end. 10 days from now is also Panda's due date to come back up . . . or to be gone. If they expect to keep him then bring him up now. If they don't, bring up Holt (if he's ready) or Peralta. You can always DFA Peralta when X is ready to return.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Was there any reason given for Lin going to SS and Marrero to 3rd instead of vice versa? Is Lin considered the better defensive SS?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't get the bolded part, there are plenty of flights from Boston to Tampa that can have Holt, Panda, Peralta, or Devers on them (but it won't be Devers). If X can't play, he can't play and should be DL'd. He'd only miss these 3 games (which if he can't play he wouldn't play) and with the break of 4 days he'd only miss 3 on the back end. 10 days from now is also Panda's due date to come back up . . . or to be gone. If they expect to keep him then bring him up now. If they don't, bring up Holt (if he's ready) or Peralta. You can always DFA Peralta when X is ready to return.
I'm going off Farrell saying X is day-to-day, which to me implies he's not hurt enough for the DL (X-rays were negative) and that once the swelling and soreness subsides, he'll be good to go. That could be today, tomorrow, or it could be next Wednesday, but regardless, they're not inclined to commit to losing him for 10 days (or 6 with the break) if he can realistically be back in one or two.

Thing is, if they find on Sunday that they need a body because Bogaerts isn't ready and Lin is dinged up, they can make a move then with Bogaerts going on the DL retroactively and they still get him back by a week from Monday. But why sacrifice Bogaerts for games a week from now (note it's four games after the break due to the doubleheader on Sunday) unless they absolutely have to?