Who's on Third? I don't know

shaggydog2000

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I'll add another name to the list though unproven. I have no idea why the Giants haven't given him a chance yet given how awful their 3B production has been. If they don't have room for him, then maybe they would move him in the next week which would give the Sox a few weeks to try him out.

From Rotoworld
Jae-gyun Hwang plans to use the opt-out in his contract with the Giants if he's not called up to the majors by July 1. (It's unclear if the Giants intend to do so. Signed out of the KBO over the winter, the 29-year-old Hwang is batting .287/.331/.466 with six homers, 43 RBI, and five steals through 67 games with Triple-A Sacramento. He has mostly split time between first base and third base, though he has also made a pair of starts in left field. Given where the Giants stand right now, it's worth a shot to at least see what he can
So you're saying you're interested in that Giant Hwang? Or would at least like to get a look at him?
 

trekfan55

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Again. I am simply replying to the attack. If people want to stop talking about it, they're free not to. But if you broach it, I'm going to respond.

Ben Cherington could have made the point moot by reallocating $168 million productively. He spent it on Castillo, Sandoval, Ramirez, and Craig ( and $10 million on Masterson for good measure).
One thing has nothing to do with the other.

It was smart not to pay Ellsbury 168MM. It was not smart to spend money on these players. That's probably the reason why Cherington is no longer the GM. And again, whether replacing him with DDski (or at least hiring him to be his boss) was the smart move remains to be seen.

Pitchers in the National League face other pitchers or bench players serving as pinch hitters where AL pitchers face DH's. As a result of pitchers hitting in the 9th slot, the strategy of 8th place hitters changes significantly from how an 8th place hitter in the AL approaches an at bat.

All of this accrues to the benefit of NL pitchers and makes it easier for them to navigate lineups. Such as walk the 8th hitter to face the starting pitcher and get out of a 2nd inning jam more easily. This should be self evident. Sorry if it wasn't for some.
This may apply for starters, but not really for relievers. When a reliever enters the game in the late innings the pitcher's spot may no longer be the #9 spot because of a double switch, or he faces the meat of the order.
 

Plympton91

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This may apply for starters, but not really for relievers. When a reliever enters the game in the late innings the pitcher's spot may no longer be the #9 spot because of a double switch, or he faces the meat of the order.
The "double switch" involves bringing in someone like Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt, not David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion.
 

joe dokes

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The "double switch" involves bringing in someone like Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt, not David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion.
The point was that the reliever is not facing the pitcher.
So while not facing David Ortiz, he's not facing Ron Herbel or Dean Chance, either.
 

AB in DC

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Makes me wonder when we're going to see reliever statistics that are adjusted for the quality of batters faced.

(It's really just like Strength-of-Schedule on a team level.)
 

Sox and Rocks

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The "double switch" involves bringing in someone like Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt, not David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion.
So, if I'm understanding your point, and I think I am, you first claimed that NL pitchers have an artificial advantage that inflates their numbers in that they face the opposing pitcher rather than another position player/hitter Then, when another poster correctly mentioned that this wouldn't apply to late inning relievers/closers since they face pinch hitters rather than pitchers, you compare the pinch hitters in the NL to David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion? Shouldn't the comparison be between the pinch hitter and the #9 hitters in an AL lineup, which are quite similar? (If anything, the advantage would often go to NL pinch hitters in this case.)

You're a good poster who makes solid points at times, but your dogmatic approach and inability to admit to any mistakes really detracts from the overall quality of your postings. In this case, you were right about the Shaw trade being bad (though your reasons for opposing it, as others have pointed out, aren't entirely sound), but despite being right you feel the need to minimize Thornburg's success last year for no apparent reason.
 

Toe Nash

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The "double switch" involves bringing in someone like Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt, not David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion.
Not really -- you also get guys who are normally in the starting lineup but are getting a day off from starting, who in the AL might get a start at DH. And NL teams tend to keep players on their bench who are good pinch hitters more than AL teams do (because such a player on an AL team would never play, or would have to be the starting DH).

Pinch-hitters for AL teams last year had a .196/.280/.317 line. PH for NL teams hit .219/.303/.358. Not a huge difference, but something.

I think the AL is a stronger league still, but if you're evaluating one reliever's quality of opposition the noise is probably too great to really say "He faced bad competition because he was in the NL Central." Depends whether he happened to pitch a lot against the heart of the Cubs' and Cardinals' order, or if he missed them, or what.
 

uk_sox_fan

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To be fair he probably chose Ortiz and Encarnacion because they were prominent examples of DHs. The fallacy, of course, is that they were two of the best DHs (one of which doesn't play anymore and so therefore could be classified as an 'historically great' DH) who are not representative of the average DH faced by an 8th inning guy in the AL.

As we're adjusting to life after Papi we're coming to realise as a fanbase that DHs tend not always to be the best hitters on their team. The median AL team for offensive var for DHs is Toronto at -0.7.
 

Sox and Rocks

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To be fair he probably chose Ortiz and Encarnacion because they were prominent examples of DHs. The fallacy, of course, is that they were two of the best DHs (one of which doesn't play anymore and so therefore could be classified as an 'historically great' DH) who are not representative of the average DH faced by an 8th inning guy in the AL.
The fallacy is bigger than this; suggesting that AL teams put a DH in the lineup while NL teams have a pitcher in it and, therefore, equating the two as substitutions for each other is quite problematic. Teams also have limited resources, so spending money/draft pics/trade capital on a quality DH like Ortiz or Encarnacion means spending less money on a hitter/position player somewhere else in the lineup. Said another way, NL teams have good players hitting in the middle of their lineups, too, it's just that they have to also play the field on a regular basis. Thus, the real difference is that NL pitchers face the opposing pitcher while AL pitchers face a Devin Marerro type of hitter at #9, and this difference, as noted above, does not apply to late inning relievers.

Any comparison between a pitcher and a DH is fallacious, and in this case the fallacy is simply exaggerated by using the two best DH's from last year.
 

ledsox

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I'll add another name to the list though unproven. I have no idea why the Giants haven't given him a chance yet given how awful their 3B production has been. If they don't have room for him, then maybe they would move him in the next week which would give the Sox a few weeks to try him out.

From Rotoworld
Jae-gyun Hwang plans to use the opt-out in his contract with the Giants if he's not called up to the majors by July 1. (It's unclear if the Giants intend to do so. Signed out of the KBO over the winter, the 29-year-old Hwang is batting .287/.331/.466 with six homers, 43 RBI, and five steals through 67 games with Triple-A Sacramento. He has mostly split time between first base and third base, though he has also made a pair of starts in left field. Given where the Giants stand right now, it's worth a shot to at least see what he can
Hwang is starting his first game for the Giants today. Their 8th third baseman of the season. We thought we had it bad.
 
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Pitchers in the National League face other pitchers or bench players serving as pinch hitters where AL pitchers face DH's. As a result of pitchers hitting in the 9th slot, the strategy of 8th place hitters changes significantly from how an 8th place hitter in the AL approaches an at bat.

All of this accrues to the benefit of NL pitchers and makes it easier for them to navigate lineups. Such as walk the 8th hitter to face the starting pitcher and get out of a 2nd inning jam more easily. This should be self evident. Sorry if it wasn't for some.
From 2007-2015 (limited by Lahman's DB), there were 368 relief pitchers who switched from the AL to the NL or vice versa.

Mean K/9:
AL: 7.33
NL: 7.55
diff: -0.22

Mean WHIP:
AL: 1.64
NL: 1.58
diff: 0.06

Mean HR/9:
AL: 0.14
NL: 0.12
diff: 0.02

(Note: each player is treated as a single sample rather than controlling for IP b/c nobody's paying me to do this).
 

trekfan55

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The "double switch" involves bringing in someone like Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt, not David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion.
One of the biggest perks in baseball is that when you are down to your last inning you cannot just send your best hitter to get some hits and/or runs. You can give the ball to the best shooter in basketball, or draw a play to your best receiver in football, but not in baseball.
I say perk because that is one of the things I love about watching a baseball game, even if I get depressed when the Sox are down by 3 runs and in their 9th inning Travis, Vazquez, and Marrero are up.

My point is that it's not fair to exchange the pitcher with David Ortiz or Edwin Encarnacion because:

a. If it's their turn they get to hit, but an NL reliever gets to face Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey, etc, in the same spot.
b. If it's the pitcher's spot coming up there will probably be a PH and the PH will not be a David Ortiz, but neither does the AL team have a David Ortiz ready to replace their worst hitter (like Marrero) unless for some reason that hitter took a break and he was called on (and this can happen in the NL too).

That was my main point when discussing relievers in the NL vs the AL. You specifically mentioned that they can have an easier 2nd inning and I can agree in the case of a starter. Facing a tough rally he can settle down by picthing around the #8 hitter and taking out the pitcher. But not so much a reliever coming into the 7th-8th-9th inning.
 

DanoooME

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Another possible option? Nick Franklin, waived by Milwaukee, should be available for pro-rated minimum. He's only 26 and while he only has one career inning at 3B, he's played a lot of 2B and SS, so he might be worth taking a flyer on. Had a 771 OPS last year for Tampa. He had 6 games at 3B in the minors. Stash him at extended spring training or something and let him work on 3B skills. If Peralta's worth taking a shot on, Franklin should be too. The more options the better as long as they don't interfere with Devers' and Chavis' development.
 

Oppo

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Sorry if this was addressed earlier but

If Texas falls out of contention, would you trade Devers and Pom (3rd arb year next year) for Beltre (due $18 in 2018) and Darvish (FA after this year)?

(Ducks)

Why Boston does it: solves 3b for this year and next. Darvish would provide a RH SP and is better than Pom. Would be GFIN mode but also not committing any long term money.

Why Texas does it: losing Darvish anyway, Pom will be relatively cheap next year, Devers.
 

Byrdbrain

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Sorry if this was addressed earlier but

If Texas falls out of contention, would you trade Devers and Pom (3rd arb year next year) for Beltre (due $18 in 2018) and Darvish (FA after this year)?

(Ducks)

Why Boston does it: solves 3b for this year and next. Darvish would provide a RH SP and is better than Pom. Would be GFIN mode but also not committing any long term money.

Why Texas does it: losing Darvish anyway, Pom will be relatively cheap next year, Devers.
Oddly enough that wasn't addressed earlier.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Why Texas does it? Because it would be a giant fleecing of the Sox.
Would it though? Yes, losing our 3bman of the future would be painful, but the Sox would increase their chances of winning this year immensely. Of course, the plan to stay under the luxury tax would be shot to Hell so there's that.

Biggest concern would be Beltre's H/A splits suggest he really, really likes playing in Arlington and that he's um, 38 years old and just took 2 months to recover from a minor calf injury.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
A half-year of Darvish may be worth more than a year and a half of Pomeranz, but the size of the gap is open to debate--Pomeranz has settled into a respectable #4 type, and Darvish is not quite the pitcher he was pre-injury.

What's not debatable, I think, is that this difference is dwarfed by the value chasm between Devers' whole cost-controlled youth, starting in probably no more than a year, and 15 months of whatever Beltre may have left in the tank at age 38-39, at a cost of $30 million-ish.
 

chawson

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The rumored interest in Martin Prado only substantiates DD's fetish for hitters who put the ball in play.

Prado's 89.7% contact rate ranks 1st in MLB for qualified third basemen (2015-17). Jose Ramirez is 2nd and Solarte is 3rd. Really illustrates why he was so ready to trade Moncada.
 

grimshaw

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The Rangers are still within striking distance of a playoff spot too. I can't see them waving the white flag if this is the position they are in a month from now.

I want this team to be contenders for years, not shorten the window in order to increase the odds for this one year. Especially with the playoffs being the crapshoot they are.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Meanwhile down on the farm Devers hit #15 and #16 plus an RBI single for good measure and Chavis added a dinger of his own.

Moncada snapped an 0-14 with 9K's stretch with a 2-5 night (dbl+hr) for Charlotte.
 

BJBossman

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The rumored interest in Martin Prado only substantiates DD's fetish for hitters who put the ball in play.

Prado's 89.7% contact rate ranks 1st in MLB for qualified third basemen (2015-17). Jose Ramirez is 2nd and Solarte is 3rd. Really illustrates why he was so ready to trade Moncada.
The SF Giants formula. He's pretty expensive though.

And I can't imagine the Sox making another deal with SD after last year's debacle. The trust there has to be beyond low.
 

joe dokes

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The SF Giants formula. He's pretty expensive though.

And I can't imagine the Sox making another deal with SD after last year's debacle. The trust there has to be beyond low.
He's with the Marlins, so that part shouldn't be a problem. But 13m/yr through 2019 is a large nut.
 

Zososoxfan

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The Rangers are still within striking distance of a playoff spot too. I can't see them waving the white flag if this is the position they are in a month from now.

I want this team to be contenders for years, not shorten the window in order to increase the odds for this one year. Especially with the playoffs being the crapshoot they are.
By the looks of it though, JWH is looking to maximize the club's value ahead of a sale in the next few years.

Meanwhile down on the farm Devers hit #15 and #16 plus an RBI single for good measure and Chavis added a dinger of his own.

Moncada snapped an 0-14 with 9K's stretch with a 2-5 night (dbl+hr) for Charlotte.
The interesting discussion is whether Devers will make a stop at the bucket before the majors or if he will go the AA-->MLB route. I assume contract considerations will determine his landing time in MLB regardless.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
By the looks of it though, JWH is looking to maximize the club's value ahead of a sale in the next few years.
Even assuming this is true, I'm not sure I understand how depleting the farm system makes the team more valuable to buyers. If he trades Devers for a 2017 WS win--even assuming that strategy works--that win will be in the rearview mirror by the time he sells.
 

BJBossman

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Even assuming this is true, I'm not sure I understand how depleting the farm system makes the team more valuable to buyers. If he trades Devers for a 2017 WS win--even assuming that strategy works--that win will be in the rearview mirror by the time he sells.
But all the revenue from additional games and the championship revenue increase will all be on the books. Not that anyone with the money should need selling. There are few safer investments than a pro sports team.
 

grimshaw

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The interesting discussion is whether Devers will make a stop at the bucket before the majors or if he will go the AA-->MLB route. I assume contract considerations will determine his landing time in MLB regardless.
DD indicated he would go to AAA first. They don't seem to be fast tracking him at all.

As for Prado - I think he's fine, and fairly cheap to acquire. He's also very solid defensively.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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DD indicated he would go to AAA first. They don't seem to be fast tracking him at all.
This is ridiculous.

The Red Sox -0.1 projected WAR for third base is not only the worst in baseball, it is the worst among any infield position in the game. And it's by far the worst at any position among an actual contender.

The most important thing for the Red Sox to do over the next month is figure out what our answer is to third base. It's obviously not Deven Marrero, who has nothing in his statistical profile to indicate that he is capable of hitting at a major league level. Every at bat he gets is a complete waste for our team. It might be Tzu-Wei Lin, who I guess is fine to come up straight from AA, and if we gave him enough starts maybe we could figure that out. It might be Brock Holt, assuming that guy is still alive.

But the big question is whether Devers is ready to hold down the position, and we need to know that by July 31. The idea that skipping AAA (which everybody does these days) or sending him up too early is going to have some devastating impact on his future development is way overblown IMO. And you have to think of the prospect cost that a guy like Todd Frazier or Moose could cost us for performance that may very well be no better than we could get from Devers for free.

We need him up, and starting, now.
 

Byrdbrain

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They just signed Peralta and Pablo just started a rehab assignment. While I think both of them are toast and will be no help to the major league team they are going to get a chance to show what they do have in Pawtucket for a couple of weeks.

My guess is after the AA all star game one or both of those two will be released and Devers will head to Pawtucket. If he shows well there he could be in the majors by mid-August.
I'm not saying that is the right thing to do but it sure seems like the plan.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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They just signed Peralta and Pablo just started a rehab assignment. While I think both of them are toast and will be no help to the major league team they are going to get a chance to show what they do have in Pawtucket for a couple of weeks.

My guess is after the AA all star game one or both of those two will be released and Devers will head to Pawtucket. If he shows well there he could be in the majors by mid-August.
I'm not saying that is the right thing to do but it sure seems like the plan.
Mid-August is too late to have any other plan if Devers doesn't work out.

Peralta and Sandoval are a joke.
 

joe dokes

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Mid-August is too late to have any other plan if Devers doesn't work out.
If they really thought it was probable that he'd help the team, he'd be playing.

And 28 games (assuming he gets called up today and plays every game til 7/31, won't really tell anyone (who matters) anything they don't already think they know.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Mid-August is too late to have any other plan if Devers doesn't work out.

Peralta and Sandoval are a joke.
That's not true since waiver trades are still possible until August 31. Considering it's believed to be a buyer's market for 3B (more available 3B than possible acquiring teams), it isn't hard to believe that there might be a 3B or two available in August through the waiver wire.

Until then, I think it's become painfully obvious that Devers is viewed as the answer in the same way that Benintendi was the answer in LF last year. If a reasonable trade opportunity for a Moustakas or Frazier comes across his desk, I doubt Dombrowski passes it up. But short of that, Devers is the answer for better or worse. And he will get a minimum of a couple weeks in AAA before he gets to Fenway.

The Red Sox are in first place right now despite the black hole at 3B. They can survive a few more weeks with the Marrero/Lin patch (with perhaps another sprinkling of Sandoval) before handing the job to Devers. If necessary, they might even be able to get through the rest of the season that way, based on how the first half has gone so far.
 

MikeM

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And I can't imagine the Sox making another deal with SD after last year's debacle. The trust there has to be beyond low.
Yeah, if I'm SD atm I'm not buying into anymore of Boston's prospect hype either (seriously though, I doubt that stuff ultimately ends up mattering as much as the outside perspective likes to play it up).

Not sold that any of this outside trade talk is amounting to more then media speculation until I see DD actually pull the trigger on a Pablo DFA. I mean we did win the division last year while getting the worst WAR in the league out of it, and there is really nothing there until that happens that to me would suggest a change in the surrounding philosophy that sees 3B production being viewed as (at best) a bonus value to him atm.

My current guess is that if anything, he ends up trying to get cute by tweaking the pitching the staff first
 

O Captain! My Captain!

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David Freese is maybe a "avoid having the bottom fall completely out" option. The Bucs are bad and also hate paying anyone money, but his contract (2 yrs, 11M) is eminently reasonable even for a guy who might only get you 1-2 WAR a year.
 

grimshaw

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Here is a list of players who need to be added to the 40 man roster by 11-20 or be rule 5 eligible.
http://wiki.soxprospects.com/Rule+5+Eligible+Players#December 2017

Obviously there will be some departures anyhow but they can't keep everyone so I would think these are guys who could be in a package - not necessarily centerpieces, but sweeteners: Jalen Beeks, Jamie Callahan, Ty Buttrey, Chandler Shephard, Jake Cosart, Nick Longhi, Trey Ball and Darwinzon Hernandez
 

sean1562

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I dont think Trey ball would be considered a sweetener, and I imagine he is safe from being picked in the Rule 5 draft
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Lin has already played some third for the Sox. He looks better than Panda, not quite as good as Marrero, but the sample size is tiny.

I'm not sure I understand your question about "how he looks at the plate". See above about sample size.
 

soxfan121

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But the big question is whether Devers is ready to hold down the position, and we need to know that by July 31. The idea that skipping AAA (which everybody does these days) or sending him up too early is going to have some devastating impact on his future development is way overblown IMO. And you have to think of the prospect cost that a guy like Todd Frazier or Moose could cost us for performance that may very well be no better than we could get from Devers for free.

We need him up, and starting, now.
What, exactly, is the bolded opinion based upon?

One does not need to look very far into the past to see an example of how over-promoting a player who looks good in the minors/spring training can affect that player's development.

Granted, every player is different and thus we can't know (for sure) who can handle the jump and who might be negatively affected. But every word out of the FO and minor league development folks indicates that they think Devers is not a good candidate to make the jump; that he requires more development time, or that the "pressure" of playing 3b for Boston in the midst of a pennant race might not be the ideal way to introduce him to the big leagues.

If there is a (made up number alert!) 33% chance that Devers's development would be adversely affected – that he would not succeed in the big leagues in 2017, and that the experience of "failing" at the big league level would set back his development – is that an acceptable risk? What's the number that is an acceptable risk?

And what evidence do we have that Devers would be successful at "fixing" the 3b problem? Quotes, stories, anecdotes...anything? Yeah, he's hitting very well at AA. What else?
 

grimshaw

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I dont think Trey ball would be considered a sweetener, and I imagine he is safe from being picked in the Rule 5 draft
None of those guys get a great player on their own, but I bet some team would take a flyer on Ball in a trade to try him in a minor league pen. He will be in someone's system next year.
 

Devizier

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I'm hoping the Red Sox have caught lightning in a bottle with Lin; certainly his AA performance (this year) would support him being at least an above-replacement level ML player.

Considering that I would have been happy to see the Sox scrape for a replacement-level guy like Schimpf (who, coincidentally, is probably very available!) this is a considerable improvement.
 

johnnywayback

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There is at least reason to hope that Lin's breakout is for real, as it's corresponded with a change in his plate approach (he's elevating the ball instead of just Ichiro-ing it into the ground and hoping for infield singles). I'm just not sure there's much reason to think even a broken-out Lin is much more than a poor man's Marco Hernandez (or a rich man's Deven Marrero).

And, frankly, as long as Deven Marrero is on the major league roster, they need another infielder.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There is at least reason to hope that Lin's breakout is for real, as it's corresponded with a change in his plate approach (he's elevating the ball instead of just Ichiro-ing it into the ground and hoping for infield singles). I'm just not sure there's much reason to think even a broken-out Lin is much more than a poor man's Marco Hernandez (or a rich man's Deven Marrero).

And, frankly, as long as Deven Marrero is on the major league roster, they need another infielder.
Why do people think Marco Hernandez is good? I think Lin has a chance to be considerably better if the power is for real. His approach at the plate has always been much better.