Who's On First? - The Wild Card Roster

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think the bolded answers the question of keeping Sale or ERod off the WC Roster. They can be eligible for the Divisional Series as a new roster is submitted. So I think you play the 26 you need to win the one game.
I wonder if he'll take advantage of this. Sale, ERod and Pivetta should all be off the WC roster then. Replace them with Seabold if the game looks to be going deep into deeeeeep extra innings and add all the situational bats. I'll be quite irate if he doesn't take advantage of this and Boone does. I'd hate to think that he's getting out-maneuvered....
 

Rovin Romine

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I wonder if he'll take advantage of this. Sale, ERod and Pivetta should all be off the WC roster then. Replace them with Seabold if the game looks to be going deep into deeeeeep extra innings and add all the situational bats. I'll be quite irate if he doesn't take advantage of this and Boone does. I'd hate to think that he's getting out-maneuvered....
FWIW, Seabold threw 5 innings yesterday.
 

dynomite

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I'd agree it ought to be a quick-hook All-Hands approach. (Within reason though - no need to burn an expected Game 1 starter if they're up 5 in the 7th or the like.)
Right, and I think Cora wouldn't do that -- although I think that comes down to 1) do you plan to use ERod (our likely Game 1 starter)? and 2) do you plan to use Sale (our likely Game 2 starter)?

Sale could hopefully be available for 1 IP, and has the best pure stuff. ERod has fantastic career numbers against Judge and Stanton but will be on 3 days rest, already threw an IP on Sunday, and is our likely Game 1 starter.

My preference would be to leave ERod off the roster while keeping Sale available for 1 IP & having Pivetta active as the "break glass in case of emergency" guy. Having only thrown 1 IP since last Thursday, in the event Tuesday's game goes past the 10th inning I think you could ask Pivetta for 70+ pitches on his "normal" start day.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I wonder if he'll take advantage of this. Sale, ERod and Pivetta should all be off the WC roster then. Replace them with Seabold if the game looks to be going deep into deeeeeep extra innings and add all the situational bats. I'll be quite irate if he doesn't take advantage of this and Boone does. I'd hate to think that he's getting out-maneuvered....
If they're going to have a break-glass extra innings guy on tomorrow's roster, better it be ERod or Pivetta than a rookie with one major league appearance under his belt. Seabold is the guy that gets added to the LDS roster if multiple starters/long relievers are hurt, not for one game when everyone's healthy.
 

dynomite

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If they're going to have a break-glass extra innings guy on tomorrow's roster, better it be ERod or Pivetta than a rookie with one major league appearance under his belt. Seabold is the guy that gets added to the LDS roster if multiple starters/long relievers are hurt, not for one game when everyone's healthy.
Exactly this. And while yes, of course that's not incredibly likely, would anyone here be surprised at this point if this game went into the 11th+ inning? I'm almost expecting it.
 

dynomite

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Also per Cora they're "waiting" to see how JD responds to treatment on his ankle, probably won't decide on him until tomorrow AM: View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1445144141512466437?s=20


Updating this per Cora saying Plawecki is likely at C. Likely lineups:

If JD can't start:

CF - Hernandez (R)
DH - Schwarber (L)
SS - Bogaerts (R)
3B - Devers (L)
RF - Renfroe (R)
LF - Verdugo (L)
1B - Dalbec (R)
C - Plawecki (R)
2B - Arroyo (R)

If JD can start:

CF - Hernandez (R)
1B - Schwarber (L)
SS - Bogaerts (R)
3B - Devers (L)
DH - Martinez (R)
LF - Verdugo (L)
RF - Renfroe (R)
C - Plawecki (R)
2B - Arroyo (R)
 

Sam Ray Not

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In a segment that aired around 7:10 EDT on MLB Tonite, Heidi Watney reported that "Alex Cora did say that Kevin Plawecki will catch Nathan Eovaldi tomorrow and that Christian Vasquez :eek::eek::eek: is expected to play 2nd base." When they re-aired the segment around 8:10, they had corrected Heidi's faux pas and "Vasquez" was replaced by "Arroyo."
 

joe dokes

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cantor44

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Okay. I like that Plawecki and Arroyo are starting. Plowster has had much better simpatico with Eovaldi. And Arroyo will stabilize infield D. Like Duran on the bench to pinch run.

In a strange way, I'm not too bothered if Martinez can't play. Dalbec is the best defensive option at first, and he's had a better offensive post-deadline that JD (though JD has come around a bit lately).

Surprised Sale off the roster, thought he could pitch an inning to face lefties. They don't have anyone reliable to do that with Taylor hurt. I wonder if ERod is used in that role if needed, and if so, Pivetta would then get the start in a potential ALDS game 1. Or conversely if Pivetta is used, Erod starts the potential next game.

Seems to me, since it's only for one game it will be 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Or even possibly 14 position players and 12 pitchers

So we've got: CF: Hernandez, DH: Schwarber, SS:X, 3B: Raffy, RF: Renfroe, LF: Verdugo, 1B: Dalbec, C: Plawecki, 2b: Arroyo

- if this is the way Cora goes, I like this starting line up! Balances D and O ...

Bench: Vazquez, Shaw, Duran ... will likely be one more if Martinez hurt: Santana or Wong (or both?)

SP: Eovaldi
RP: Whitlock, Houck, Braiser, Robles, Erod (?), Davis, Sawamura, Ottavino, Richards, Barnes, Pivetta (?), D. Hernandez

If they win this game, a couple sensitive decisions to make about who gets cut from the bullpen moving forward ...Let's hope (pu pu pu)
 

RedOctober3829

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If they win tonight, what about moving Pivetta to the bullpen in a permanent role? His stuff would play up big time, could give length, snd I think his bulldog type personality would relish the opportunity. Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck would be your starters.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If they win tonight, what about moving Pivetta to the bullpen in a permanent role? His stuff would play up big time, could give length, snd I think his bulldog type personality would relish the opportunity. Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck would be your starters.
I prefer Pivetta starting, but I imagine if Playoff Cora is still with us, we'll see him used in the pen, along with all the starters available during their side session days. Since Pivetta likely won't be used as a starter for another 4 days at the earliest, I imagine he'll be available in a possible Game One of an ALDS, no?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If they win tonight, what about moving Pivetta to the bullpen in a permanent role? His stuff would play up big time, could give length, snd I think his bulldog type personality would relish the opportunity. Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck would be your starters.
Houck's stuff plays up in the pen too, no? I expect that Pivetta and Houck could probably be used interchangeably between starting and long relief, letting Cora pick and choose as needed and ride hot hands. Similar to how he never really committed ERod, Eovaldi, and Porcello to firm roles in 2018. They pitched in relief and made starts based on availability each series. (obviously, so did Price and Sale but they were the guys you knew were starting as much as possible)
 

mfried

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Okay. I like that Plawecki and Arroyo are starting. Plowster has had much better simpatico with Eovaldi. And Arroyo will stabilize infield D. Like Duran on the bench to pinch run.

In a strange way, I'm not too bothered if Martinez can't play. Dalbec is the best defensive option at first, and he's had a better offensive post-deadline that JD (though JD has come around a bit lately).

Surprised Sale off the roster, thought he could pitch an inning to face lefties. They don't have anyone reliable to do that with Taylor hurt. I wonder if ERod is used in that role if needed, and if so, Pivetta would then get the start in a potential ALDS game 1. Or conversely if Pivetta is used, Erod starts the potential next game.

Seems to me, since it's only for one game it will be 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Or even possibly 14 position players and 12 pitchers

So we've got: CF: Hernandez, DH: Schwarber, SS:X, 3B: Raffy, RF: Renfroe, LF: Verdugo, 1B: Dalbec, C: Plawecki, 2b: Arroyo

- if this is the way Cora goes, I like this starting line up! Balances D and O ...

Bench: Vazquez, Shaw, Duran ... will likely be one more if Martinez hurt: Santana or Wong (or both?)

SP: Eovaldi
RP: Whitlock, Houck, Braiser, Robles, Erod (?), Davis, Sawamura, Ottavino, Richards, Barnes, Pivetta (?), D. Hernandez

If they win this game, a couple sensitive decisions to make about who gets cut from the bullpen moving forward ...Let's hope (pu pu pu)
Ironically, we’re significantly better defensively (and possibly offensively) with JD injured.
 

RedOctober3829

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Houck's stuff plays up in the pen too, no? I expect that Pivetta and Houck could probably be used interchangeably between starting and long relief, letting Cora pick and choose as needed and ride hot hands. Similar to how he never really committed ERod, Eovaldi, and Porcello to firm roles in 2018. They pitched in relief and made starts based on availability each series. (obviously, so did Price and Sale but they were the guys you knew were starting as much as possible)
Yes it does. I was also thinking that Houck and Pivetta could piggyback each other in a game. One starts and goes 3-4 and the other goes 2-3.
 

dynomite

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Wow. I was hoping JD would at least be able to pinch hit if needed.

Agreed with @Sandy Leon Trotsky about Sawamura potentially saving the season on Sunday. But we’ll need him in the ALDS if we get there.

Despite the downgrade offensively, I’m excited to have the best defensive alignment out there tonight. The truism is that pitching and defense wins championships. Let’s put that to the test.
 

nattysez

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mfried

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This is my optimal roster for this game. JD and Dalbec can only hit Cole with Lady Luck’s considerable help. Schwarber (DH) can focus on hitting. Pinch running and relief pitching are optimized, and Vazquez and Shaw are available to pinch hit. Dalbec is noticeably more adept than Schwarbs at 1st base.
 

nattysez

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This is my optimal roster for this game. JD and Dalbec can only hit Cole with Lady Luck’s considerable help. Schwarber (DH) can focus on hitting. Pinch running and relief pitching are optimized, and Vazquez and Shaw are available to pinch hit. Dalbec is noticeably more adept than Schwarbs at 1st base.
You prefer Dalbec starting at first rather than Shaw?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is my optimal roster for this game. JD and Dalbec can only hit Cole with Lady Luck’s considerable help. Schwarber (DH) can focus on hitting. Pinch running and relief pitching are optimized, and Vazquez and Shaw are available to pinch hit. Dalbec is noticeably more adept than Schwarbs at 1st base.
JD has a career .935 OPS against Cole in 32 career PA (most on the team). I don't know that that's luck. He's going to be missed tonight.

Interestingly, Danny Santana has a .643/.643/.929/1.572 slash line against Cole. Only 14 PAs so it's not that meaningful, but still. Wonder if there was a smidgen of thought given to starting him at 1B? Probably not as he's not even on the roster.

 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The continued hated of JD is bizarre to me. He’s been one of the teams best hitters for years, including this year. His worst month this year was like a 780 ops and he was around 870 the final month. Him being out, especially against Cole, is a big loss.
 

BaseballJones

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JD's last month of the season: .286/.353/.495/.847, 4 hr, 7 2b, 15 rbi

JD's last two months of the season: .280/.335/.481/.816, 8 hr, 14 2b, 33 rbi

Not elite JD numbers, but not chopped liver either.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Austin Davis over Darwinzon?

Looks like Taylor is the first lefty out of the pen. He hasn't thrown a pitch in a game for 17 days, which is a bit concerning.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The continued hated of JD is bizarre to me. He’s been one of the teams best hitters for years, including this year. His worst month this year was like a 780 ops and he was around 870 the final month. Him being out, especially against Cole, is a big loss.
Agreed. I don't like the guy but would prefer his bat to be in the lineup than not in the lineup. I think the issue though is that right now, Schwarber has been the better of the garbage-defense, all-offense LF/DH guys, so having to figure out a way to get one in the lineup without the considerable downgrade in OF defense (more important than IF defense these days IMO) is much easier now.
 

mfried

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You prefer Dalbec starting at first rather than Shaw?
I think neither Dalbec nor Shaw have a good chance vs. Cole. Later in the game, vs. RH relievers, Shaw might be an effective pinch-hitter.
 

joe dokes

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JD tripping over second has got to be near the top of the list of all-time stupid Sox injuries.
At least it happened on the field, unlike Wade Boggs injuring himself pulling off a cowboy boot (or getting tossed from a car while willing himself invisible), Bob Stanley gashing his hand after he slipped while taking out the trash, Vaughn Eshelman doing whatever Vaughn Eshelman was doing, or Andy Yount wrecking his hand at a friend's funeral.
 

Rovin Romine

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No JD. No Sawamura or Darwinzon. Taylor is active.

Arauz, Duran, and Wong all on the roster. Going with a longer bench and a shorter pitching staff for just the one game.
I'll be curious to see the starting lineup. If it's what I expect, the longer bench is a touch illusory, though everyone has a potential role to play.

If it's Plawecki C, Hernandez CF, Arroyo 2B, Schwarber DH, and Dalbec 1B (JD being out), then you only have a couple of bench bats of any worth:
Shaw, Vazquez (ugh).
But who do you use them for? Verdugo? Arroyo? (Replace them with Durran, or Arauz?) Do Shaw/Vaz solve any extreme pitcher/batter splits based on stuff as well as handedness?

Likewise, maybe you run Durran or Arauz for Plawecki (or Shaw/Vaz) if they get on. But if a game is all that tight and you're not behind, do you PR for Schwarber or Dalbec? Probably not.

Wong is your break-glass catcher if you use Vaz as a PH, and then PR for him, removing one of the catchers from the game.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'll be curious to see the starting lineup. If it's what I expect, the longer bench is a touch illusory, though everyone has a potential role to play.

If it's Plawecki C, Hernandez CF, Arroyo 2B, Schwarber DH, and Dalbec 1B (JD being out), then you only have a couple of bench bats of any worth:
Shaw, Vazquez (ugh).
But who do you use them for? Verdugo? Arroyo? (Replace them with Durran, or Arauz?) Do Shaw/Vaz solve any extreme pitcher/batter splits based on stuff as well as handedness?

Likewise, maybe you run Durran or Arauz for Plawecki (or Shaw/Vaz) if they get on. But if a game is all that tight and you're not behind, do you PR for Schwarber or Dalbec? Probably not.

Wong is your break-glass catcher if you use Vaz as a PH, and then PR for him, removing one of the catchers from the game.
If the Sox are up by more than 3 at any point from the 5th inning on, I would consider defensive substitutions. But Arroyo is a pretty good defensive 2B so the only option really would be Shaw for Dalbec.
I would consider a pinch running situation for almost anyone (Duran) if they are tied or down by no more than 2. Easy to move this crew around no matter who he steps in for
 

Cesar Crespo

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The problem is that Dalbec sucks (ok, this year he's been "just" mediocre) against righties. So it comes down to whether you're willing to sacrifice that drop in offense for improved defense.

I think I come out the same as you because JDM has been poor lately, and even a minor injury isn't going to help in that regard. But it's not a clear-cut decision so on this one I am comfortable deferring to Cora/Bloom because they have a shitton more data on this than we do.
He sucks against righties even though in his only full season, he was mediocre vs them and last year he slashed .245/.375/.528 in his 64 PA vs R. On what planet does that make any sense?

He also hit R better in the minor leagues than lefties over the course of his career. He did so every single year in the minors except 2019.

Good to know he sucks vs righties even though nothing suggest that is actually the case.

And I'm not a Dalbec guy. He's already surpassed my expectations.
 

Rovin Romine

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If the Sox are up by more than 3 at any point from the 5th inning on, I would consider defensive substitutions. But Arroyo is a pretty good defensive 2B so the only option really would be Shaw for Dalbec.
I would consider a pinch running situation for almost anyone (Duran) if they are tied or down by no more than 2. Easy to move this crew around no matter who he steps in for
Yeah, I think the "defensive subs" are more on paper than anything. Duran's not a great CF (no arm). AFAIK, Arauz isn't a huge upgrade over Arroyo. Shaw's not a career 1B, and I wouldn't be surprised if he and Dalbec are a push at this point.

To the extent that anyone has a replacement who is more "sure handed" - maybe Shaw over Dalbec.

Duran's an enticing PR. But if you use him, you either have to stick him in LF/CF (downgrade from Verdugo/Hernandez) or lose him. Then you have to replace the person you PR for. It's far more of a very late inning move than an early one, when the lineup is less likely to turn over. (Unless you PR for Arroyo early on, and go to Arauz to replace him.)

Speaking of 2B, the Sox probably should have seen if Duran could have moved back to 2B. He'll always have his speed, and his arm will always suck.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Speaking of 2B, the Sox probably should have seen if Duran could have moved back to 2B. He'll always have his speed, and his arm will always suck.
I'm guessing they never saw him sticking at 2b if they moved him to CF knowing full well he may end up in LF or RF. His speed/athleticism is probably wasted at 2b too but I'm not sure why that matters. It does though. I'd rather he be wasting his athleticism playing a fringe average 2b than a below average RF.

I'm not saying that's the case here. I just never got the "athleticism is wasted" argument. The athleticism is wasted in CF too if he's not any good at it.

And Arauz is an upgrade over Arroyo as a UI. Narrowing it down to just 2b, probably not so much.
 

AB in DC

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Barnes over Sawamura doesn't make sense to me. I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario where I'd prefer Barnes over Sawamura, even if Sawamura has only had a day+ of rest since throwing 1.2.
Ottavino is the one I'd question, given how brutal his second half has been (-0.6 fWAR, including 3 HR in his last five appears (3.1 IP))
 

Harry Hooper

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Ottavino is the one I'd question, given how brutal his second half has been (-0.6 fWAR, including 3 HR in his last five appears (3.1 IP))
Yeah, you would want to yank Ottavino at the first sign he doesn't have the slider going, but the 3-batter minimum makes that so risky. I'd rather leave him off the roster.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Looking at JDM vs Dalbec +/- the last month (all by hand, so I may have screwed up). I also didn't sort for handedness of opposing pitcher.

Dalbec: 21/84 (.250) w/ 8 HR's a 5 Doubles
JDM: 29/100 (.290) w/ 4 HR's and 8 Doubles

Against "Good Pitching Teams"

Tampa Bay
Dalbec: 9/20 (.450) w/ 3 HR's and 1 Double
JDM: 8/28 (.286) w/ no HR's or Doubles

White Sox:
Dalbec: 3/13 w/ 1 HR
JDM: DNP

Seattle:
Dalbec: 2/6 (.333) w/ 1 HR and 1 Double
JDM: 3/12 (.250) w/ no HR's or Doubles

NYY:
Dalbec: 1/9 (.111) w/ 1 HR and 0 Doubles
JDM: 2/9 (.222) w/ no HR's or Doubles

Now, there's certainly a deeper dive that needs to be done into these stats (as I said - handedness).
Dalbec had 29 K's / 84 ab's and JDM had 28 / 100 ab's.

JDM provides more protection in the lineup.

Essentially, without JDM playing - it looks like the Red Sox have 2 Renfroes. Balance that with Devers and Schwarber and it's not the worst thing that could happen. Plus, the defense is aligned the way it should be.