When I first started following baseball in the late 90's, a manager going into lame duck season meant that he would not be back. It could also set a bad precedent in the clubhouse if all the guys knew the manager had one foot out the door.
This was also a plot point in Moneyball where Art Howe was portrayed by Phillip Seymour Hoffman. This was "just a movie", obviously, but it made the final cut.
It certainly feels like a foregone conclusion that AC will be gone. The '24 season has been positive so far, but I'm not sure that will erase 2 years of frustration with management. Sounds like AC is very loyal, but I'm not sure that the competitor in him has been thrilled with the way things have been handled.
Andrew Bailey almost feels too obvious. He has a few seasons as a pitching coach and less than one full season in the Red Sox dugout. I feel like some fans have been suggesting Jason Varitek be the manager since the day he retired. Let's take a look at the last few managers and how they got here:
Alex Cora - Played for the Sox and won a ring as a role player. Bench coach for the Astros* and was viewed as a top managerial candidate while in Houston. Gets hired quickly after the 2017 season. Seems like that one was destined to happen and it just made sense - the team was ready to win.
John Farrell - Red Sox pitching coach in the "good old days" under Tito. Had some managerial experience, although not the best results. Familiar with some of the roster, took over to stabilize the operation after Bobby V. Wins World Series, a few down years, team cuts ties after 2017 with the team on an upswing.
Bobby V - Larry Lucchinos' friend. Needed a "hardass" after the chicken and beer fallout. Short sided and a disaster. His tie to the team was Larry.
Tito Francona - No ties to the team (that I remember). Previous managerial experience in Philly. Took on a loaded team that had the most pressure on them of any team in my lifetime.
Grady Little - Made a bad move at the worst possible time. Baseball lifer who was incredibly popular with players. I believe he was a minor league coach with the Red Sox before managing the big club.
Point being, under this ownership group, most of the managers have had some previous tie to the team and/or experience in a big baseball market. I find it hard to believe that at this point in the season, they don't have a candidate with a handshake deal to manage the team next year. Waiting to see how things pan out this year would be incredibly risky. They've gotta have someone in mind, right?