I think it’s kind of hard to know how important framing and blocking are; and how much is actually the catcher (as opposed to the pitcher). But I don’t really know.
Who's going to catch?
- Thread starter johnlos
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Contreras had his arm broken when he was hit by a swing caused by being too close to the plate. The "medical team" recommendation is to avoid catching generally if he wants to extend his career. It's not as if he has a particular medical issue, just the normal demands of catching.
He also missed time at the end of the year when he was hit by a pitch and his finger was broken.
So, we should trade for him as a catcher and convince him he doesn't want to extend his career.
He was informed by the team that they wanted him to change positions, in large part because they have two promising young catchers and the team needs a 1B.
"Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said the club approached Contreras about switching from catcher to first base and designated hitter. Contreras was open to the idea, Mozeliak said."
https://www.mlb.com/news/willson-contreras-to-switch-positions-in-2025
I had brought him up last month as I think he is a great fit. He has really improved his framing ability and is a solid right handed hitter. I know he has agreed to switch to 1B/DH but maybe playing for a competitive team will help sway his mind.
I love these charts and thanks for posting.
Is there a way to run the batting against position versus MLB? Or is it already?
The value of pitch framing, whatever it is, will plummet at whatever point MLB implements a balls and strikes challenge system or some other kind of automation. Maybe that will never happen but these changes have been pretty fast once they get momentum. It might even drop slowly before automation as umpiring improves and older umps retire. I wouldn't be signing any multiyear deals for a catcher whose main positive attribute is framing, but might overpay on a short term deal.
I would also argue that as more teams understand framing and coaches at all levels teach it, catchers are all getting better at it, so it is easier to find someone with that skill and I think other defensive skills, and offense, become relatively more valuable.
I would also argue that as more teams understand framing and coaches at all levels teach it, catchers are all getting better at it, so it is easier to find someone with that skill and I think other defensive skills, and offense, become relatively more valuable.
I posted a cool graph a while ago that tracks your hypo about pitch framing:
There is some interesting info about how much Realmuto improved his pitch framing skills in this article. I agree that framing is easier to improve than blocking or throwing.
https://www.philliesnation.com/2021/01/the-hidden-value-in-j-t-realmuto-lies-within-his-improved-pitch-framing-abilities/
Also, grading as poor for framing in 2023 is very different than a few years ago as all teams work to improve that facet of the game, thereby narrowing the advantage/disadvantage:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitch-framing-is-evolving-along-with-the-strike-zone/
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Depends on how many challenges you get, I guess, and how good the player is at deciding when to challenge, no?
And the last part may be somewhat true...and yet we've given Wong hundred and hundreds of at-bats and he doesn't appear to have improved at all. Countless times he failed to even try to frame marginal pitches or pitches that were strikes. The problem is there's plenty of guys who can do the framing part well but can't hit at all or are bad at the other parts (blocking, controlling the running game). It's a very hard job, obviously.
I've been hoping we'd trade Wong, even if it's just for lottery tickets, while/if his value is high. Go get someone else, whether it's Murphy or otherwise. I have no confidence Wong repeats last years hitting performance.
He's had a tumultuous stint in STL and his numbers at first will be much less impactful than if he was catching. I think he'd be available in a trade since he doesn't fit the reboot timeline with the Cardinals.
He had two impact injuries last year (hit by bat, hit by pitch), and as posted above, the decision to move, and the health rationale was by management.
I am not suggesting Wong will improve or we should stick with him. Just that over time the delta between the better framers and the worst might diminish. For coaching I mostly meant that the guys who are entering the bigs now have likely been taught and practiced with emphasis on framing since they were learning the position, while 15 years ago it may have been less important to developing a catcher for many orgs. Not that you can become decent in one season or that everyone can become decent at a MLB level.
Makes sense. Wasn't necessarily trying to to argue with you, just thinking out loud. But thanks for explaining.
Thanks, that is a cool graph. And helps explain why Will Smith (and maybe Connor Wong) being league-worst pitch-framers doesn't matter as much as it used to.
Statmuse gives you something:
Not sure it totally checks out since I'm unsure why DH would have half the ABs as other positions. Maybe because only certain players are DH-only? Had to scroll right to see the wRC+ numbers:
Didn't expect 2b to be as low as C! Also surprised how (relatively) bad 3b have become.
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@jbupstate Per this tweet from 2020 it looks like stathead has this capability too but I can't quite figure out how to use it.
View: https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/1273637472258478080
View: https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/1273637472258478080
You can get that w/o stathead:
Seasons > 2024 MLB > Batting > League Splits.
In there you can find all sorts of stuff, including leaguewide batting lines by all catchers.
You can find a ton of stuff on the fangraphs leaderboards (including the statcast numbers originally in question) as well, and I find their interface way more reasonable.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0&qual=200&type=24&month=&pos=c&pageitems=100
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0&qual=200&type=24&month=&pos=c&pageitems=100
Looking at these stats.. wouldn't looking into Yainer Diaz (on the heels of the Kyle Tucker trade signaling a possible mini rebuild) be an absolute perfect fit? At or near the top in xBA, HardHit%, etc. Would also be thrilled with the oft-talked about bet on a Sean Murphy bounce back.
People make way too much of this. Aside from the 90s and the early aughts (when the bad blood was real), it really hasn't been an issue. Heck, just last year Boston got some real prospects in exchange for Alex Verdugo. Maybe this is revenge for that. Or maybe the Yankees had a catching prospect crowding their 40 man roster and no place to play him, so they instead took a lottery ticket in exchange for the surplus.
Yanier Diaz is great but I think he's the type of guy, pre-arb, that the Astros will want to build around, right? Speaking of which, Yandy Diaz would also be a great RHH DH/1B type, but I don't think he'll be available either.
Right, but you have to do it one at a time. In any case, looking across a few positions, they mirror the table that StatMuse provided (and I posted above). Catchers hit about as well as 2b, and a bit better than 3b.
Everybody wants a great defensive catcher until they have to watch them hit. Last season Wong was fine when he was controlling the running game (look at the pop times!) and he was hitting. He really wore down in the second half while he was also covering other positions and was expected to be the RH power that the team failed to acquire, but he still finished with a 110 wRC+ and .330 wOBA. How much of that offense are we willing to give back?
Wong is the only real catcher under team control; I’m interested to see what kind of development comes with new catching instruction. I’d be fine if they can swing a trade for Murphy, but I don’t think that’s in the cards.
Wong is the only real catcher under team control; I’m interested to see what kind of development comes with new catching instruction. I’d be fine if they can swing a trade for Murphy, but I don’t think that’s in the cards.
I think the issue with Wong is that he’s unlikely to repeat his offensive performance from last year. He did put up a .330 wOBA but his xwOBA was only .289 which would put him 14th of 16th catchers with over 400 PA last year. So if you combine his poor defense with a likely regression in his offensive numbers, you’re left with essentially a replacement level catcher (or worse).
Can he develop into more than that? Sure. But I would definitely want to bring in someone ahead of him on the depth chart in case he does not.
Can he develop into more than that? Sure. But I would definitely want to bring in someone ahead of him on the depth chart in case he does not.
Has there been any indication at all that Breslow wants to move on from Wong? I don’t recall seeing anything- even a hint of it…
The fact that he traded the team's top catching prospect and hasn't been particularly aggressive in signing a free agent catcher sure seem like signs to me that Breslow is all in on Wong.
xwOBA doesn’t account for spray chart/park effects. Given that Wong is a pulling righty playing 1/2 games at Fenway, he might well outperform consistently.
I don't know, maybe? Here's his spray chart. I mostly saw a guy squeaking a shitload of singles through the infield last year. A 340 BABIP is going to be pretty hard to maintain. I know he's managed that over the last two full seasons, but I think he's been pretty lucky and we're going to see some regression. Couple that with the horrific defense and I really really hope we have an alternative plan.
And here's the fuller picture of his peripherals:
He doesn't hit the ball hard, he doesn't walk, he doesn't barrel the ball, he doesn't hit it at a very good angle, and he swings and misses a lot. There's just not very much to like in this profile.
The first part of this is true. The second is not…Wong is fairly middle of the pack in terms of pull rate and has a below average fly ball rate. This isn’t Isaac Paredes we’re talking about here.
Right, his spray chart doesn't show a guy dinking a bunch of fly balls of the Monster, it shows a soft all-fields approach.
One of the positives about his offense is that he cut his Ks considerably, from 134 in 403PAs to 114 in 487. That suggests *something* about his approach may have changed for the longer-term better. (I agree the BABiP is concerning, though).
I was in favor of signing Carson Kelly to be the starter for the next few years, but at this point, there are no remaining free agents better than Wong, and the only two free agents representing an upgrade over Narvaez are Elias Diaz and Yasmani Grandal.
If neither of those players can be signed for backup money, I would just as soon give Narvaez a chance in Spring Training to backup Wong.
FWIW, the guys on the Sox Prospects podcast were bullish on Narvaez as a potential backup catcher of the present and future. There also seems to be consensus in everything I've read that his defensive skills are already MLB-caliber.
If neither of those players can be signed for backup money, I would just as soon give Narvaez a chance in Spring Training to backup Wong.
FWIW, the guys on the Sox Prospects podcast were bullish on Narvaez as a potential backup catcher of the present and future. There also seems to be consensus in everything I've read that his defensive skills are already MLB-caliber.
What about a trade of Wilyer Abreu for Diaz (other than Fishy hating it)? Nearly identical wRC+/fWAR last year, five years of control for Abreu versus Diaz's four so they can build around Abreu instead. After trading Tucker, the Astros outfield is legitimately terrible and an Abreu/McCormick platoon in RF would be a huge gain for them. They would also still have Caratini as a reasonable starting catcher.
Meanwhile, we get a RHH catcher to split time with Wong, but that can also platoon with Yoshida at DH and even backup 1B. Career 120 wRC+ and the defense at catcher looks to be around average (I have not looked at framing/blocking specifically). Paired with Anthony taking over RF and acquiring a RHH LF (Teoscar most likely), this would provide a long-term catching solution and remove any concern about the too many LHH problem.
The Red Sox would need to add Crawford++ to make this appealing to the Astros.
You might be right just due to the scarcity of catching in the league. After posting I went to look at their relative values on BTV and was a little surprised to see Diaz (62) almost double Abreu (32).
I think Abreu+Crawford might still make sense if Breslow is really intent on adding one of Burnes/Flaherty/Cease/etc to the rotation. Probably a bit of an overpay, maybe something else comes back to balance it.
Thoughts on who would be the emergency catcher with the current 26 man roster? If the team is comfortable with both catchers playing against LHP, Willson Contreras would be a great fit as he or Wong could DH against lefties, providing a big offensive boost. Contreras put up very similar numbers against RHP and LHP and could take over catching at least half the team's games.
As a comparison, Contreras has an OPS+ of 136 last year compared to Bregman at 118.
As a comparison, Contreras has an OPS+ of 136 last year compared to Bregman at 118.
St Louis supposedly asked him months ago if he wanted to stay on or be traded and he wants to stay. He’s also got a no trade clause. Iirc they have catching prospects they see as their long term fit there and Contreras goes to first to keep his bat in the lineup.
The reporting on all of this has been a bit hazy, but it looks like the team approached him about a move to a different position or a trade because they have young catchers who need playing time and they no longer have a first baseman. Contreras clearly doesn't fit their timeline, with three years left on his contract and it is always impossible to know about a no trade clause since teams generally don't want to advertise when a player wants to be traded.
I have a hard time getting a feel for how he rates defensively as a catcher. His defensive runs saved went from very good, to neutral, to very bad, to neutral from 2021 through last year. Also worth noting that he was encouraged to shift forward behind the plate by his coaches, at which point his arm was broken on a JDM swing. Weird situation all around.
Very weird. I’d like the bat but per the reporting it seems he’s not interested in moving at the moment.
Luis Torrens is a glove guy and was good for the Mets last year but I’m not sure what his contract situation with them is given they signed him as a free agent.
Luis Torrens is a glove guy and was good for the Mets last year but I’m not sure what his contract situation with them is given they signed him as a free agent.
I believe there were some medical issues for Contreras stated earlier. He might see this as a way to extend his career and get another good FA contract in 3 years by saving his body.
I'm a bit skeptical about the known story re: Contreras. Ivan Herrera demonstrated he was capable of taking over as primary C, yes, but Pedro Pages didn't exactly light the world on fire, and the cold turkey way they're just shutting Contreras down there entirely to move him to 1B full time when he hasn't played there since 2019 strikes me as something else going on (my mind jumps to concussion in particular).
This is my post from the mega thread. I think acquiring a blocked high minor prospect with a team that needs outfield help would be a very shrewd move given the presence of Anthony and Campbell.
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Screwed or shrewd?
I think in theory, this makes sense, but wonder if it’s harder to do when there are still FA OF’s available.
What would it take to get Patrick Bailey from SF? Is he untouchable for them?
If not, would a package with Crawford, Whitlock, Wong?, +? be of any interest to the Giants?
Crawford's fly ball tendencies may play better in San Francisco, Whitlock is a potentially high-leverage bullpen piece, Wong could go if SF has any interest, plus any prospects to make the exchange happen, if needed?
Tell me how off-the-wall this is.
If not, would a package with Crawford, Whitlock, Wong?, +? be of any interest to the Giants?
Crawford's fly ball tendencies may play better in San Francisco, Whitlock is a potentially high-leverage bullpen piece, Wong could go if SF has any interest, plus any prospects to make the exchange happen, if needed?
Tell me how off-the-wall this is.
Bailey is their franchise catcher and while he’s not Posey at the plate, he’s perhaps the best defensive catcher in the whole league. The price starts with at least one of the big three imo. He is that highly regarded.
They’d have more luck trying to trade for Joey Bart from Pittsburgh. His defensive metrics aren’t as good as Bailey’s but they’re considerably better than Wong’s and he can hit a bit too.
They’d have more luck trying to trade for Joey Bart from Pittsburgh. His defensive metrics aren’t as good as Bailey’s but they’re considerably better than Wong’s and he can hit a bit too.
I just listened to the Breslow presser and he was very bullish on Navarez. Specifically mentioning framing and throwing skills.
View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1873819599185277244?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1873819599185277244?s=46