Who's going to catch?

[johnlos]

With a few of our targets already signed I was expecting we might start the year with Wong and a replacement level guy and Teel would get the call fairly soon. Now that Teel's a goner, do we really like Wong as the full-time guy?? And should we really have traded a position of need when we have MIs? I'll ask the latter in the form of a poll.

 

[DLowe 04 Unsung Hero]

I'm ok with Wong as a bat first catcher, but would love to see a solid defensive veteran catcher come in to split time with him.

 

[Brianish]

My honest answer is "neither" but I feel like Mayer has more red flags and might bring more thanks to his pedigree, plus we're extremely thin at catcher. Maybe Campbell can get a try behind the plate.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’d be shocked if they didn’t make a move for a catcher. They put too much value on the pitching dev side to throw out Wong every day. They;ll be another move.

 

[johnlos]

My honest answer is "neither" but I feel like Mayer has more red flags and might bring more thanks to his pedigree, plus we're extremely thin at catcher. Maybe Campbell can get a try behind the plate.

Lol. He's our new Mookie he might as well try!

 

[LogansDad]

I’d be shocked if they didn’t make a move for a catcher. They put too much value on the pitching dev side to throw out Wong every day. They;ll be another move.

I hope so. They HAVE to see this, right?

Like, I know that Wong isn't literally the worst catcher ever, but he is still dreadful behind the plate. Unless his kid starting to sleep through the night instead of being two month old suddenly fixes everything, I just can't see them going into this season with him as the primary catcher.

 

[TomRicardo]

I hope so. They HAVE to see this, right?

Like, I know that Wong isn't literally the worst catcher ever, but he is still dreadful behind the plate. Unless his kid starting to sleep through the night instead of being two month old suddenly fixes everything, I just can't see them going into this season with him as the primary catcher.

He is the second worst at "catching" in the MLB last year and he has a cannon for an arm. Wong would be a great bench player but he is inability to frame, pitch call, and actually catch the ball is just murder over 100-120 games.

 

[grimshaw]

I'm on the Carson Kelly train. I only want a guy who is a plus defender and not a black hole.

 

[ookami7m]

I'm on the Carson Kelly train. I only want a guy who is a plus defender and not a black hole.

Apparently close to signing with the Cubs.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/cubs-carson-kelly-nearing-a-deal.html

 

[LogansDad]

I'm on the Carson Kelly train. I only want a guy who is a plus defender and not a black hole.

There are a few of us hoping that his delay in signing with the Cubs is a good sign. I doubt it, but I am holding out hope. He was my #1 realistic (read: not Juan Soto) target this offseason.

 

[nvalvo]

There is buzz that we might deal Wilyer Abreu for Sean Murphy from the Braves, who have Drake Baldwin knocking on the door at AAA.

But I cannot for the life of me figure out what that trade looks like. Abreu has considerable surplus value and Sean Murphy, after a down year, is probably a touch underwater on his 6/$73m (through 2028), $15m club option (2029).

 

[johnlos]

Still a good defender even if you'd only be praying for a rebound for the bat. 30+ catchers often have rapid defensive declines though yeah?

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, the idea of sending Abreu off for Murphy makes me a little nervous. If Murphy's bat really is toast, that's going to hurt.

I think he probably costs less than Abreu, though, given the year he just had.

Yasmani Grandal and James McCann are also still out there *ducks*

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Yeah, the idea of sending Abreu off for Murphy makes me a little nervous. If Murphy's bat really is toast, that's going to hurt.

I think he probably costs less than Abreu, though, given the year he just had.

Yasmani Grandal and James McCann are also still out there *ducks*

It won’t be Abreu for Murphy. Abreu is something like 30ish surplus value, and Murphy is like -15.

I do think the -15 is lower than his actual worth, but giving up Abreu for him would be a massive overpay.

 

[Fishy1]

It won’t be Abreu for Murphy. Abreu is something like 30ish surplus value, and Murphy is like -15.

I do think the -15 is lower than his actual worth, but giving up Abreu for him would be a massive overpay.

Yeah I think I understated how ridiculous that would be. I didn't want to send Abreu off for Crochet, there's no way I think we should do it for Murphy.

 

[Sox Puppet]

How about the Braves taking most of Yoshida's contract plus a couple minor league lottery tickets for Murphy? I know everyone wants to throw Abreu into every trade, but as others have said, that seems like a major overpay.

 

[Fishy1]

How about the Braves taking most of Yoshida's contract plus a couple minor league lottery tickets for Murphy? I know everyone wants to throw Abreu into every trade, but as others have said, that seems like a major overpay.

Where would they play Yoshida? Left field? Ozuna is locked in at DH.

 

[nvalvo]

It won’t be Abreu for Murphy. Abreu is something like 30ish surplus value, and Murphy is like -15.

I do think the -15 is lower than his actual worth, but giving up Abreu for him would be a massive overpay.

Yeah I think I understated how ridiculous that would be. I didn't want to send Abreu off for Crochet, there's no way I think we should do it for Murphy.

You guys will notice that I said that this was a rumor that was circulating but that I couldn't figure out how it would work. Here was SoxScout's post (@redsoxstats.bsky.social on Bluesky):

A lot of crazy pitching trade rumors floating around, most of them sound rough (pay money for starters). Weirdest one with Sean Murphy, Wilyer Abreu, pitching, and prospects.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Whether it's Murphy or another defense-first personal catcher, you can't get Crochet and have him throwing to Knuckles McFiveHole

 

[chrisfont9]

How about the Braves taking most of Yoshida's contract plus a couple minor league lottery tickets for Murphy? I know everyone wants to throw Abreu into every trade, but as others have said, that seems like a major overpay.

Maybe down the line but not as long as Sasaki is uncommitted. Any chance he helps them land Sasaki is worth taking. If/when that doesn't happen (obvious long shot), then maybe, but for 2 years people have been proposing to sell low on Yoshida. Let's re-establish his value if possible before making a rather unpleasant trade.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Murphy had an oblique injury early last year, perhaps it never fully healed.

https://bravestoday.substack.com/p/sean-murphy-2025-rebound?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

 

[Saints Rest]

Isn't there a new generation of Molinas? A new Dougie Going Deep?

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

At this point it just makes sense to sign Carson Kelly. With Teel out of the organization and no real impact catcher coming up, I would give Kelly 4 years/$40 million and try to lure him away from whatever deal he has on the table with the Cubs. That feels like retail for his age 30-33 seasons.

Also, Kelly hits lefties (117 wRC+ in his career).

 

[simplicio]

Agreed, every passing hour without news about Kelly and the Cubs (over 50 now!) I get more hopeful.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Carson Kelly is terrible vR. He’s pretty solid vL. Why on Earth would you have to pay him 4/40???

 

[YTF]

At this point it just makes sense to sign Carson Kelly. With Teel out of the organization and no real impact catcher coming up, I would give Kelly 4 years/$40 million and try to lure him away from whatever deal he has on the table with the Cubs. That feels like retail for his age 30-33 seasons.

Also, Kelly hits lefties (117 wRC+ in his career).

Dude got 3.5 last season, feels like a huge overpay.

 

[benhogan]

does gReese McGuire get another shot?

 

[mauf]

Carson Kelly is terrible vR. He’s pretty solid vL. Why on Earth would you have to pay him 4/40???

Bill Verck’s line about the price of mediocrity comes to mind, but sometimes you have to pay that price. The Sox needed to sign a catcher even before they traded Teel; now that there’s no help on the horizon, making a multiyear commitment to a mediocre catcher makes sense. In a world where you’re paying north of $10M per projected WAR, 4/40 for Kelly might even be a little low.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

Dude got 3.5 last season, feels like a huge overpay.

So does 8/$218 million for Fried. Catching is in short supply and the market is hot this winter.

 

[johnlos]

Looks like one answer is Carlos Narvaez (cousin to Omar). Cost us Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, international bonus space, and Emmanuel Valdez (designated for assignment).

Has been a replacement-level hitter in age 24 and 25 seasons at AAA (97 and 108 wRC+). For defense per Longenhagen at Fangraphs: "Narvaez’s carrying tool is his incredibly quick release and accurate arm. He allowed steals at a 79% success rate in 2023 but the visual scouting report of his ability to control the run game is much more encouraging than those results even though his pure arm strength appears to be pretty generic. As a receiver and ball-blocker, Narvaez is only fair. He’s a competent defender who can punish a mistake breaking ball on offense, a skill set typical of a third catcher."

Edit: someone created a separate thread, and it sounds like he'll have value as a pitcher-framer as part of the MFY-school-of-bending-the-rules-to-steal-strikes-until-roboumps-makes-them-obsolete

 

[YTF]

So does 8/$218 million for Fried. Catching is in short supply and the market is hot this winter.

With all due respect, I feel like you're comparing Fleshlights and dildos

 

[kazuneko]

It won’t be Abreu for Murphy. Abreu is something like 30ish surplus value, and Murphy is like -15.

I do think the -15 is lower than his actual worth, but giving up Abreu for him would be a massive overpay.

Yes, this is another insane devaluing of Abreu’s worth. Murphy is very expensive, signed longterm and has sucked since returning from injury. Maybe he’ll bounce back but you don’t have to give up a rookie of the year candidate to get a guy who is a serious risk being a disaster. If they instead are interested in swapping their overpaid catcher for our overpaid DH that might be a more productive conversation.
And if Atlanta believes he’ll recover they would never trade him - as they would be trading very low.

 

[benhogan]

So does 8/$218 million for Fried. Catching is in short supply and the market is hot this winter.

sounds like a good time to take a step back and let the Soto euphoria cool off

the team has months to sort out their backup catcher

 

[kazuneko]

NM

 

[lexrageorge]

The impact of pitch framing is likely exaggerated. It matters in some cases, but not multiple tens of wins per season. Maybe Wong can still improve in that area. Defensively, he's probably what he is, which isn't good. But enough to survive until they can find someone better. Pitches are called from the dugout these days so that's not really an issue.

So Wong and Narvaez for now - could be worse, to be honest. EDIT: Damn auto-correct

 

[Fishy1]

The impact of pitch framing is likely exaggerated. It matters in some cases, but not multiple tens of wins per season. Maybe Wong can still improve in that area. Defensively, he's probably what he is, which isn't good. But enough to survive until they can find someone better. Pitches are called from the dugout these days so that's not really an issue.

So Wong and Narvaez for now - could be worse, to be honest. EDIT: Damn auto-correct

Do you have evidence it's exaggerated? Like, any? Or is this just vibes? I mean, tens of wins, no, but...

People like @simplicio have actually looked into this: the swing between the Red Sox and Yankees in terms of pitches that were called strikes versus balls was actually on the order of 40-50 runs. That's a four-to-five win swing, probably. Now, is that all on the catchers? Probably no. But I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of it is.

 

[johnlos]

Do you have evidence it's exaggerated? Like, any? Or is this just vibes? I mean, tens of wins, no, but...

People like @simplicio have actually looked into this: the swing between the Red Sox and Yankees in terms of pitches that were called strikes versus balls was actually on the order of 40-50 runs. That's a four-to-five win swing, probably. Now, is that all on the catchers? Probably no. But I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of it is.

interesting, although if the Yankees really believed that, they wouldn’t have traded us one of their good defensive catchers.

 

[DLowe 04 Unsung Hero]

I think it was 3 days ago now that Carson Kelly was supposedly signing with the Cubs, yet still no official announcement. If he really is still available, the Sox should make an offer. He would be a nice defensive upgrade.

 

[Fishy1]

interesting, although if the Yankees really believed that, they wouldn’t have traded us one of their good defensive catchers.

Did you look into this, like, at all?

He didn't play for them last year except for 6 games, and they already have two good defensive catchers: Wells and Trevino. They dealt him from a place of huge depth.

 

[jon abbey]

interesting, although if the Yankees really believed that, they wouldn’t have traded us one of their good defensive catchers.

As I wrote in more detail on the Yankee forum, NY has been a real catcher factory the last couple of years. They were going to move Narvaez somewhere and they got a genuine prospect back from BOS for it.

 

[nighthob]

Yes, this is another insane devaluing of Abreu’s worth. Murphy is very expensive, signed longterm and has sucked since returning from injury. Maybe he’ll bounce back but you don’t have to give up a rookie of the year candidate to get a guy who is a serious risk being a disaster. If they instead are interested in swapping their overpaid catcher for our overpaid DH that might be a more productive conversation.
And if Atlanta believes he’ll recover they would never trade him - as they would be trading very low.

Isn't the real question what Atlanta's willing to include to balance the scales?

 

[Fishy1]

Isn't the real question what Atlanta's willing to include to balance the scales?

True.

I'd also say that while Murphy was terrible last year, he was also unlucky. A .308 xwOBA is not good, but it's not as bad as his actual line ended up being over ~250 plate appearances. I'd say he's a decent chance to bounce back.

But then a lot of catchers hit 30 and kind of fall to pieces, so I really don't know.

 

[johnlos]

Did you look into this, like, at all?

He didn't play for them last year except for 6 games, and they already have two good defensive catchers: Wells and Trevino. They dealt him from a place of huge depth.

Fishy man, your comments continue to be very aggressive.

Yes I read @jon abbey's helpful posts in the Narvaez trade thread. The Yankees have a pitch-framing factory with the one-knee style somewhat pioneered by their coach. Narvaez is considered an excellent defensive catcher (by Aaron Boone of all people too) that uses the same catching style, so I assume he is likely comparable as a pitch-framer to the MFY's major league guys. But no, as bad as Wong apparently is at pitch-framing, I doubt the difference is 4-5 wins since that's a HUGE number (more than anyone on the Red Sox last year not named Jarren or Rafael). And if it really were true, the Yankees wouldn't trade even a 2-3 win guy to one of their primary competitors for a lottery ticket TINSTAAPP.

 

[Fishy1]

Fishy man, your comments continue to be very aggressive.

Yes I read @jon abbey's helpful posts in the Narvaez trade thread. The Yankees have a pitch-framing factory with the one-knee style somewhat pioneered by their coach. Narvaez is considered an excellent defensive catcher (by Aaron Boone of all people too) that uses the same catching style, so I assume he is likely comparable as a pitch-framer to the MFY's major league guys. But no, as bad as Wong apparently is at pitch-framing, I doubt the difference is 4-5 wins since that's a HUGE number (more than anyone on the Red Sox last year not named Jarren or Rafael). And if it really were true, the Yankees wouldn't trade even a 2-3 win guy to one of their primary competitors for a lottery ticket TINSTAAPP.

They have nowhere to play this guy. He's not a good prospect. He's not guaranteed to be a good major league regular, or even an average one, he's just supposed to be a good defensively. So the Sox are willing to throw him into the mix.

And I'm not saying he's going to give us 4-5 wins. I'm saying merely that the difference between the Yankees and us in terms of pitches called strikes was enough, by some measures, to account for 40-50 runs. Which most people agree is around 4-5 wins.

And apologies for the snark.

 

[johnlos]

They have nowhere to play this guy. He's not a good prospect. He's not guaranteed to be a good major league regular, or even an average one, he's just supposed to be a good defensively. So the Sox are willing to throw him into the mix.

And I'm not saying he's going to give us 4-5 wins. I'm saying merely that the difference between the Yankees and us in terms of pitches called strikes was enough, by some measures, to account for 40-50 runs. Which most people agree is around 4-5 wins.

And apologies for the snark.

Thanks. For comparison, we sent them Verdugo coming off 1.4/2.2 WAR (FG/BR) and they sent us their 12th-ranked prospect (Fitts), a major-league ready reliever (Weissert), and a TINSTAAPP). We sent our 25th-ranked prospect that's nowhere near the bigs for Narvaez.

If we're lucky Narvaez will be worth a win? Maybe 1.5 if he teaches Wong how to catch a little bit

 

[Fishy1]

Thanks. For comparison, we sent them Verdugo coming off 1.4/2.2 WAR (FG/BR) and they sent us their 12th-ranked prospect (Fitts), a major-league ready reliever (Weissert), and a TINSTAAPP). We sent our 25th-ranked prospect that's nowhere near the bigs for Narvaez.

If we're lucky Narvaez will be worth a win? Maybe 1.5 if he teaches Wong how to catch a little bit

Yeah, I think he's depth. I don't know if he'll even play on the major league roster They've already brought in another option in Zavala and I wouldn't surprised to see them being in a third. Wong as a full-time catcher as many noted is untenable, and if his hitting regresses, which I think it will, we'll have a serious problem on our hands. Fenway is already punishing enough for the pitchers without having a catcher who can't frame or block.

But maybe they do intend to have him as backup or even compete with Wong. We'll see!

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Dodgers just won the WS with a catcher who was in 3rd percentile for blocking and 1st for framing.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Thoughts on targeting Willson Conteras on the Cardinals? STL plans on moving him to DH/1B, but his defensive stats last year seem ok to pretty good and he had another great offensive season. The reporting to date says that the goal is to keep his the bat in the lineup, and STL has two promising younger catchers. Three more years, ages 33-35.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Thoughts on targeting Willson Conteras on the Cardinals? STL plans on moving him to DH/1B, but his defensive stats last year seem ok to pretty good and he had another great offensive season. The reporting to date says that the goal is to keep his the bat in the lineup, and STL has two promising younger catchers. Three more years, ages 33-35.

The reporting also says the team doctors say he shouldn't catch much, if at all, anymore

“Basically, our medical team recommended it,” Mozeliak said. “In terms of if he really wants to extend his career, they think that would be best for him. Catching is, obviously, a demanding position. He missed a lot of time this past year because of injuries. One, because of being a catcher, and, one, when he was hit by a pitch, which was random.
“I’d say it would be very unlikely to see [Contreras] behind the plate. But it is a useful thing to have. We anticipated carrying three catchers regardless, but then we did have the conversation with him, understanding that for his career we think it would be best for him to move over to first base and DH.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/willson-contreras-to-switch-positions-in-2025

 

[TrotNixonRing]

The Dodgers just won the WS with a catcher who was in 3rd percentile for blocking and 1st for framing.

thanks for this.

is it possible that, gasp, catching just isn’t as important as we were brought up thinking?