Who's Going Down?

[DLew On Roids]

10

Aston Villa

29

9

7

13

32

38

-6

34



11

Stoke City

30

8

10

12

32

44

-12

34



12

West Ham United

29

8

7

14

32

38

-6

31



13

Hull City

29

8

6

15

30

37

-7

30



14

Swansea City

29

7

8

14

38

43

-5

29



15

Norwich City

30

7

8

15

24

48

-24

29



16

West Bromwich Albion

29

5

13

11

33

43

-10

28



17

Crystal Palace

29

8

4

17

19

38

-19

28



18

Sunderland

27

6

7

14

26

42

-16

25



19

Cardiff City

30

6

7

17

23

52

-29

25



20

Fulham

30

7

3

20

30

65

-35

24




I suspect Villa, Stoke, West Ham, and Hull are probably safe, since there are too many teams that would have to pass them to go down. But from 14th on down, there are compelling reasons to think any could go:

• Swansea are winless in seven matches since Laudrup was canned.
• Norwich has a manager who's a tactical disaster.
• West Brom has a Spanish-speaking manager who's a tactical disaster.
• Palace has too little talent for this division.
• Sunderland dug themselves a hole they're still trying to get out of.
• Cardiff also have too little talent, they fired an excellent manager, and Vincent Tan is a noted crazy person who might appoint his son's roommate as manager if Solskjaer doesn't win something soon.
• Fulham sold their only reliable goal-scorer, can't stop anyone, and are managed by nutcase.

So...who ya got?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I really do think that Norwich are going down. Hughton can't manage, we can't score, we finish up with four of the most brutal matches possible (LIV, @MU, @CHE, ARS). We're going to probably need to reach 36 points by the time those four matches roll around to even have a chance at staying up, which means 7 points out of the next 4 (SUN, @SWA, WBA, @FUL).
 
We've played 15 matches away this year and have won exactly 2 of them.
 
And our goal differential is the 3rd worst in the league, and the other two teams are already at the foot of the table, so we're losing any tiebreakers with the others battling against the drop.
 
Probably not happening. Down to the Championship again.

 

[DLew On Roids]

You could get saved just by the rest of the bottom of the division being so awful.  Sunderland have been terrible since the Newcastle win, and getting them at home gives Norwich a chance to put them seven points down.  Yeah, yeah, three games in hand, but at the bottom of the table, 7 out of 9 possible points is a giant task.  And I can't see Norwich going down if Sunderland finish below them.  Fulham are playing like the Sixers and Cardiff can only beat Fulham.  There's a good chance neither gets to 30 points.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think Cardiff and Fulham are toast and that Palace is in a lot of trouble.  The most important thing for relegation-threatened teams are home fixtures against other crappy squads.  Palace has only four home matches left and they're against City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Villa.  It wouldn't be surprising to see them take 1-2 points combined there and then they probably need to get 4-5 points from their away fixtures to stay up when they're 2-2-10 away this season.  They do play Fulham away the last match of the season when Fulham might already be guaranteed relegation, so that's somewhat of a wild card.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Can I vote for six or seven clubs? (Very few of these sides feel good enough to stay up, and yet only three of them can go down...)

 

[mikeford]

Palace, Cardiff, Fulham

These are very bad teams.

 

[Zomp]

Manchester United

 

[mgoblue2]

I think if Swansea pick it up soon they're safe, and the Jozies have 3 games to pick up points on the field. Other than that the bottom five are all pretty bad. Palace, Cardiff, Fulham.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Have you seen Sunderland's fixture list?
 
(a) Norwich
(a) Liverpool
(h) West Ham
(a) Tottenham
(h) Everton
(a) Man City
(a) Chelsea
(h) Cardiff
(a) Man Utd
(h) West Brom
(h) Swansea
 
Sure, they have games in hand, and they have more talent than most of the clubs around them...but man, they'll probably have to overachieve to still have anything to play for in the last two matches (both of which might well be relegation six-pointers).
 
I'm also not as down on Palace as some of you are - they're not talented, but Pulis knows what he's doing. Even with home matches against the top three still to come, I can see them getting clear of the pack before the final weekend (when they're away to Fulham).

 

[thehitcat]

Fulham, Cardiff and Norwich I believe in goal differential (even though the poll says I voted for Swansea which I don't think I did...)

 

[mgoblue2]

West Brom-Cardiff, one of the games of the year.

 

[DLew On Roids]

Norwich can put this thread to bed if they beat Fulham at the Cottage next Saturday. Otherwise, with their schedule over the last four matches, it's game on.

 

[fletcherpost]

I'm worried about Norwich. I thnk the pressure's getting to them. Maybe they will sneak a point or two in the games where they are not expected to get anything. I'm chuffed for Palace though. 

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, Chris Hughton just got the sack today, so I guess the pressure's officially on Norwich. They needed 7 points from the 4 games leading up to that last 4 game stretch and so far they've gotten 3. Losing at home to WBA yesterday was unacceptable.

 

[CodPiece XL]

The game against Fulham is the proverbial 6 pointer.
 
After that they have:  LIverpool (h) Man Utd (a) Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (h).
 
Fulham have Spurs, Hull, Stoke and Palace.

 

[mabrowndog]

Have you seen Sunderland's fixture list?
 
(a) Norwich - L, 2-0
(a) Liverpool - L, 2-1
(h) West Ham - L, 2-1
(a) Tottenham - L, 5-1
(h) Everton - L, 1-0
(a) Man City - T, 2-2
(a) Chelsea - W, 2-1
(h) Cardiff
(a) Man Utd
(h) West Brom
(h) Swansea
 
Sure, they have games in hand, and they have more talent than most of the clubs around them...but man, they'll probably have to overachieve to still have anything to play for in the last two matches (both of which might well be relegation six-pointers).

 
I threw the scores in leading up to today's shocker over Chelsea, the deciding goal on a penalty kick spawned by an atrocious late call.
 
Their schedule doesn't look so imposing the rest of the way. All but the Man U game are at home, and now at 29 they're just a point back of both Fulham & Cardiff with games in hand on both, 3 behind Norwich and 4 away from West Brom.
 
Crystal's now safe after their win over West Ham.
 
Here's what the other candidates have left, with (current points) and [max possible points]:
 
Fulham (30) [39] - @ Hull, vs Stoke, @ Crystal
Cardiff (30) [39] - @ Sunderland, @ Newcastle, vs Chelsea
Norwich (32) [44] - vs Liverpool, @ Man U, @ Chelsea, vs Arsenal
West Brom (33) [48] - @ Man City, vs West Ham, @ Arsenal, @ Sunderland, vs Stoke
Aston Villa (35) [47] - @ Swansea, vs Hull, @ Man City, @ Spurs
Hull City (36) [51] - vs Arsenal, @ Fulham, @ Aston Villa, @ Man U, vs Everton
Swansea (36) [45] - vs Aston Villa, vs Southampton, @ Sunderland
West Ham (37) [46] - @ West Brom, vs Spurs, @ Man City

 

[SoxFanInCali]

I don't know what's more amazing, that the 20th place club can take 4 points in 4 days at City and at Chelsea, or that they can do that and STILL be in 20th afterwards.
 
The game with Cardiff next week is massive.  The winner has a great chance to stay up, the loser is pretty much doomed.

 

[mabrowndog]

Anyone want to lay odds on whether Norwich will manage even a single point against that closing slate?

 

[Spacemans Bong]

My Brummie brother in law is petrified about Villa going down. I'd say the odds are really unlikely - though if they lose to Hull, it's possible - but it's surprising that a club on the fringes of Champions League contention with their size and history could be relegation fodder - again.

 

[swiftaw]

My Brummie brother in law is petrified about Villa going down. I'd say the odds are really unlikely - though if they lose to Hull, it's possible - but it's surprising that a club on the fringes of Champions League contention with their size and history could be relegation fodder - again.

I think Lerner at Villa and Ashley at Newcastle have exactly the same philosophy - to spend just enough to keep their teams in the premier league and not a penny more.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Anyone want to lay odds on whether Norwich will manage even a single point against that closing slate?

We might nick 1 point if we get exceedingly lucky or if Arsenal's bus gets stuck in traffic, but I doubt it. We're going down.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

I think Lerner at Villa and Ashley at Newcastle have exactly the same philosophy - to spend just enough to keep their teams in the premier league and not a penny more.

 
Lerner came into football just a couple years too late. He used to throw the cash about, but ever since Martin O'Neill stamped off in a huff he's been totally out to lunch. With Ashley you could kind of see it coming, but Lerner seemed really excited by the whole project during the O'Neill era.

 

[JayMags71]

I don't understand what you mean by "a couple years too late". Henry and Werner bought LFC well after Lerner bought Villa. They haven't thrown gobs of cash around (relative to Chelsea and MCFC), and the club been showing steady progress.

 

[mabrowndog]

Fulham royally screwed the pooch today, blowing a 2-0 lead to Hull City and settling for a tie and just the single point. Norwich was predictably destroyed by Man U. West Brom picked up a big win over West Ham, and Aston Villa dropped their match to Swansea.
 
Not sure how the EPL tie-breakers work, but none of the game recaps I came across explicitly stated that Swansea has officially avoided relegation with today's win. They've clinched better marks than both Fulham and Norwich, and the best Cardiff can do is tie them.
 
Sunderland & Cardiff square off first thing in the morning (NBCSN, 7 am EDT) in an obvious must-win for both.
 
Relegation candidates, with (current points) and [max possible points]:
 
Sunderland (29) [41] - vs Cardiff, @ Man U, vs West Brom, vs Swansea
Cardiff (30) [39] - @ Sunderland, @ Newcastle, vs Chelsea
Fulham (31) [37] - vs Stoke, @ Crystal
Norwich (32) [38] - @ Chelsea, vs Arsenal
Aston Villa (35) [44] - vs Hull, @ Man City, @ Spurs
West Brom (36) [45] - @ Arsenal, @ Sunderland, vs Stoke
Hull City (37) [46] - @ Aston Villa, @ Man U, vs Everton
West Ham (37) [43] - vs Spurs, @ Man City
Swansea (39) [45] - vs Southampton, @ Sunderland

 

[SoxFanInCali]

First tiebreaker is goal differential, second is goals scored.  Swansea is -1 GD, so they are safe unless Cardiff wins a game by 30 goals.

 

[mabrowndog]

First tiebreaker is goal differential, second is goals scored.  Swansea is -1 GD, so they are safe unless Cardiff wins a game by 30 goals.

 
That's beyond hilarious.

 

[DLew On Roids]

Hey, American Samoa might get added to the fixture list.  

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Even accepting the silly possibility of Swansea getting caught on goal difference, it doesn't matter. They are officially back up. Norwich and Fulham cannot catch them. Sunderland and Cardiff play each other, so either one of them will drop three points or both will drop two. Either way, only one could theoretically catch Swansea so they cannot finish lower than 17th.

 

[fletcherpost]

The Swans are safe; I think the Bluebirds are fucked; Two nil down at Sunderland, a man down. Norwich are still waiting for the dead cat to bounce so they might nick a point from one of their last matches but it's not likely. Villa have once again got draggedinto the mire, but i think they'll be fine; Wes Brom should be fine now. West Ham should be fine. Fullham may well pay for shitting the bed yesterday.  Sunderland have hope.

 

[mabrowndog]

Make it 4-nil Sunderland with mere minutes left.
 
Relegation candidates, with (current points) and [max possible points]:
 
Cardiff (30) [36] - @ Newcastle, vs Chelsea
Fulham (31) [37] - vs Stoke, @ Crystal
Norwich (32) [38] - @ Chelsea, vs Arsenal
Sunderland (32) [41] - @ Man U, vs West Brom, vs Swansea
Aston Villa (35) [44] - vs Hull, @ Man City, @ Spurs
West Brom (36) [45] - @ Arsenal, @ Sunderland, vs Stoke
Hull City (37) [46] - @ Aston Villa, @ Man U, vs Everton
West Ham (37) [43] - vs Spurs, @ Man City

 

[Royal Reader]

I guess the thing for neutrals now is to root for Fulham to beat Stoke.  Otherwise, the battle to stay up could end quickly and anticlimactically.

You'd have to back Sunderland on current form to take West Brom at home.  That, a Sunderland loss or draw at Man Utd, a Villa loss or draw vs Hull plus the aforementioned Fulham win would really set up the last day: Fulham on 34, Sunderland and Villa 35/36, WBA 36.

Norwich seem doomed.  A Cardiff win at Newcastle to keep things at least theoretically alive seems plausible, but they're not winning @ Chelski.

 

[mabrowndog]

West Ham is officially safe, winning 2-0 over Spurs for a 7-1 margin in three games against them.

 

[Royal Reader]

Sunderland winning at Old Trafford, Fulham going down meekly at Stoke 3-0, Cardiff trailing at Newcastle.  Relegation issues could be over by tomorrow.

 

[mabrowndog]

Factoring the above along with Villa's 3-1 win over Hull...
 
Relegation candidates, with (current points) and [max possible points]:
 
Cardiff (30) [33] - vs Chelsea
Fulham (31) [34] - @ Crystal
Norwich (32) [38] - @ Chelsea, vs Arsenal
Sunderland (35) [41] - vs West Brom, vs Swansea
West Brom (36) [45] - @ Arsenal, @ Sunderland, vs Stoke
Hull City (37) [43] - @ Man U, vs Everton
Aston Villa (38) [44] - @ Man City, @ Spurs

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Sunderland has a 13 goal differential advantage relative to Norwich, so when the Canaries lose to Chelsea, the issue will be settled. 

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Norwich scratched out a point against Chelsea to stay alive, but unless they beat Arsenal and Sunderland loses at home to both West Brom and Swansea, the Canaries are down.
 
Sunderland has 10 points from its last 4 games, which is impressive for a relegation-threatened side no matter who the opponents are.  It's staggering when you realize it includes away trips to Chelsea and both Manchester clubs.

 

[Snakebauer007]

I quite like Poyet, hope they pull off survival

 

[Infield Infidel]

Sunderland has 10 points from its last 4 games, which is impressive for a relegation-threatened side no matter who the opponents are.  It's staggering when you realize it includes away trips to Chelsea and both Manchester clubs.

 
Sunderland:
First 32 games: 25 points
Last four games: 10 points
 
I thought they were done. What a crazy April May for the Mackems

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, we have a chance to stay up. Miniscule. But a chance. Have to see what happens on Wed. Arsenal don't have anything to play for next week, so if we're alive next weekend it's possible we can beat them. Have to pray real hard, though.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The league is under pretty heavy fire for not docking Sunderland for playing Ji Dong-won, while ineligible.  They only earned 1 point in the games he played, but it sounds like the league has a bit of explaining to do for letting them keep that point.  
 
There is talk that whichever team finishes 18th is looking at bringing a suit for failure to dock the Black Cats the traditional 3 points.   Sunderland can probably moot the issue with 4 more points, but it will be interesting to see if this has legs.
 

 
The lawyers also note that Poyet has admitted being surprised the punishment was not heavier, and that Sunderland's manager has stated publicly that Southampton should have been awarded the victory when Ji played in the 1-1 draw at St Mary's in August.
Ji played in three other league fixtures – against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Manchester United. Sunderland lost all of them, which was one of the factors in the league's decision-making, along with the fact that the club had reported their own mistake at the first opportunity. Ji needed international clearance because he had been on loan at Augsburg. Liz Coley, Sunderland's secretary, left her position shortly after the error came to light.
Rule 6.9 in the Football Association's relevant statutes states that "any club found to have played an ineligible player in a match shall have any points gained from that match deducted from its record". It adds that "the board … may also levy penalty points against the club in default".

 
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/03/sunderland-face-legal-fight-points-deduction

 

[SoxFanInCali]

With Sunderland's win, it's all but over for Norwich.  They are 3 points behind West Brom and are 17 goals worse in GD.

 

[OCST]

Sunderland are officially safe. Good for them - fantastic job to dig themselves out of trouble.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

For an incredibly exciting season, the last match day is looking to be pretty uneventful.  
 
Bottom three are set.  Arsenal is out of the running for non-play in CL spot.  Chelsea are officially eliminated for  contention for the league.  Everton is locked into 5th.  The title is still theoretically up for grabs, so it's worth watching until City score I suppose.  The only real mystery left is whether United will catch Spurs.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

With Sunderland's win, it's all but over for Norwich.  They are 3 points behind West Brom and are 17 goals worse in GD.

No one to blame but ourselves. Played like horseshit all season long, managerial change was made far too late.

 

[DJnVa]

  The only real mystery left is whether United will catch Spurs.

 
If you told me, as a Spurs fan, before the season that the last day would have this involved, I would have assumed I would be a lot happier than I am with what has transpired.

 

[DLew On Roids]

The league is under pretty heavy fire for not docking Sunderland for playing Ji Dong-won, while ineligible.  They only earned 1 point in the games he played, but it sounds like the league has a bit of explaining to do for letting them keep that point.  
 
There is talk that whichever team finishes 18th is looking at bringing a suit for failure to dock the Black Cats the traditional 3 points.   Sunderland can probably moot the issue with 4 more points, but it will be interesting to see if this has legs.
 
 
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/03/sunderland-face-legal-fight-points-deduction

The whole kerfuffle was silly and I'm glad it's moot. Sunderland made a clerical error, which they condeded as soon as the league pointed it out. They didn't attempt to game the system, nor was there any reason Ji should have been ineligible outside of the error. To dock them points would only have served to enable over-officiousness in the future.

And while I understand other clubs suffered under similar circumstances, those punishments were stupid. Stupid shouldn't beget more stupid just to maintain a precedent. That would be stupid.

 

[Snakebauer007]

No one to blame but ourselves. Played like horseshit all season long, managerial change was made far too late.

condolences, Norwich is never one of those teams I'd like to see go down

 

[soxfan121]

condolences, Norwich is never one of those teams I'd like to see go down

 
Who are the teams you like to see go down?