Who'd you pick first for the next 10 years?

Mugthis

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2002
842
Berkeley, CA
If you could take any player at a max contract for the next 10 seasons, who'd it be?
 
Point Guards:
  • Wall?
  • Westbrook?
  • Rose?
  • Curry?
 
Wing
  • LeBron? Clearly the best player, but how many more seasons will he be the best? He's only turning 30 years old at the end of the year, but he's already at 40,000 career minutes, which includes many long, grueling playoff runs. 
  • Durant? Just as clearly the second best player and 4 years younger than LeBron. Plus his game may age more gracefully than LeBron more physically-dominating style. But now he has a somewhat scary foot injury.
Big Man:
  • Davis? Maybe the easiest pick for his position, but would he be #1 overall?
  • Griffin vs Love?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
CaptainLaddie said:
Davis.  He's a monster on offense and defense.  He's already one of the best players in basketball.
Yeah, you take Kevin Garnett v2.0 and don't think twice.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,736
My answer too, still only 21 and already a major impact player on both ends. 
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Westbrook as the PG, he is the best two-way player at his position and for every crappy mistake he makes, there are about 5 WOW plays in between.
 
LeBron at the wing, just because we know he can win a ring and perform admirably in the finals, not so sure about Durant. Although, I'm not so sure how well LeBron ages, because he relies so much on his jaw-dropping athleticism that when he starts losing a step or two, it will be intersting to see how much he adjusts. He has done a good job increasing his shooting range, so there is hope for him.
 
Davis, obviously is the pick for big men. I would take Griffin over Love because Griffin is really starting to become a complete basketball player and has legit 18-20 foot range now.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Davis.  Hands down, IMO.  Young, already a superstar.  Can score, can actually handle the ball, and is a defensive monster.  And he is the rarest of commodities:  a quality, skilled big man.  Plenty of point guards and scorers in the league.  
 
If LeBron was 23 I'd say him, but he's got a lot less tread on the tires at this point.  Major factor.  
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,622
I want Lillard Durant and Davis

Give me Drummond and Derozan to round out my squad
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,284
Westbrook, LBJ, The Brow. Brow overall #1.

I would've taken Durant over LBJ if not for the foot injury
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
Before reading the responses, just looking at the thread title I go Davis.  I might have gone Durant, except for the injury.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
SoxFanInPdx said:
Still find it laughable that people mention Wall over Lillard. For the question asked, It's Davis for me as well.
What's the issue with Wall over Lillard? It's pretty much a tossup for me, but I'd slightly lean Wall I think. They're the same age, both had pretty excellent years last year, and Wall is supposed to be one of 8 or so best athletes in the league, so probably a bit more development left.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,284
I'd guess that the people saying it's laughable to pick Wall over Lillard don't realize that they are the same age since Lillard came into the league old.
I would also venture they don't realize that Lillard is a defensive sieve while Wall is pretty good on D
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
tbb345 said:
I'd guess that the people saying it's laughable to pick Wall over Lillard don't realize that they are the same age since Lillard came into the league old.
I would also venture they don't realize that Lillard is a defensive sieve while Wall is pretty good on D
That's insulting.
Sieves stop plenty of stuff, unlike Damian Lillard.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
LBJ is worth something like 25 wins a season, and therefore turns any halfway decent team into a contender. He has also proved that his game translates to the playoffs, which are somewhat different than the regular season.

Davis is 3-4 years away from being that sort of player, and there's a fair chance he never gets there. Even at his peak, it's probable that Davis won't be the top-5 all-time that LBJ is now. Davis clearly figures to be the better player of the two over the second half of the 10-year period, but for the period as a whole, I'll take LBJ.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
SoxFanInPdx said:
Still find it laughable that people mention Wall over Lillard. For the question asked, It's Davis for me as well.
Wall has made leaps each of the past 3 seasons. He's approaching the conversation for the top tier much less whether he's ahead of Lillard which I feel it's pretty clear he is......and I like Lillard a lot too.
 

Mugthis

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2002
842
Berkeley, CA
Devizier said:
Lebron James, future be damned.
 
I was expecting more of this. I understand and maybe even agree with the pro-Anthony Davis crowd, but...
 
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that LeBron next 5 seasons will be somewhere in between, say, Peak-Jordan and Peak-Bird. He'll start declining, and during his first serious decline phase, he'll probably be as valuable as Peak-Kobe or Peak-McGrady. Near the end of his contract, he'll be severely diminished* but may still be an All-Star-level player with a high basketball-IQ, proven leadership, marketability, and a myriad of skills.
 
Anthony Davis has a good (by no means guaranteed) chance at being superior to James during the latter 5 years, but will he ever reach where LeBron is at right now and will be for at least a few more seasons?
 
*Given the continued and perhaps accelerating advances in medicine and sports science, it's probable that LeBron's decline will be less steep than what we're used to, or at least delayed by a season or 2.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Mugthis said:
 
I was expecting more of this. I understand and maybe even agree with the pro-Anthony Davis crowd, but...
 
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that LeBron next 5 seasons will be somewhere in between, say, Peak-Jordan and Peak-Bird. He'll start declining, and during his first serious decline phase, he'll probably be as valuable as Peak-Kobe or Peak-McGrady. Near the end of his contract, he'll be severely diminished* but may still be an All-Star-level player with a high basketball-IQ, proven leadership, marketability, and a myriad of skills.
 
Anthony Davis has a good (by no means guaranteed) chance at being superior to James during the latter 5 years, but will he ever reach where LeBron is at right now and will be for at least a few more seasons?
 
*Given the continued and perhaps accelerating advances in medicine and sports science, it's probable that LeBron's decline will be less steep than what we're used to, or at least delayed by a season or 2.
We may see a decline this year now that he's changed pharmacists and hasn't yet shown his usual explosiveness much like D-Howard once he left Orlando. I want to see more of him in the coming weeks but right now I say diet my ass on the weight loss.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
HomeRunBaker said:
We may see a decline this year now that he's changed pharmacists and hasn't yet shown his usual explosiveness much like D-Howard once he left Orlando. I want to see more of him in the coming weeks but right now I say diet my ass on the weight loss.
How exactly do you think steroids work?

And even supposing, arguendo, that LBJ was juicing, what would make him stop now, when he has been through the WADA testing system three times (for the Olympics) and isn't under any suspicion?
 

Mugthis

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2002
842
Berkeley, CA
HomeRunBaker said:
We may see a decline this year now that he's changed pharmacists and hasn't yet shown his usual explosiveness much like D-Howard once he left Orlando. I want to see more of him in the coming weeks but right now I say diet my ass on the weight loss.
Didn't Howard have major back surgery once he left Orlando?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
maufman said:
How exactly do you think steroids work?

And even supposing, arguendo, that LBJ was juicing, what would make him stop now, when he has been through the WADA testing system three times (for the Olympics) and isn't under any suspicion?
I'm not going to get into this whole thing again. I recall being hammered for suggesting Barry Bonds was juicing as he was cranking 80 HR's. There's obvious and three's obvious......the question is how much explosiveness he will lose and how he adjusts. He's clearly still has superior skills and maybe he hasn't slipped and he was flat the other night. That's why I said I want to see a little more of him.
 

Blacken

Robespierre in a Cape
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2007
12,152
Mugthis said:
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that LeBron next 5 seasons will be somewhere in between, say, Peak-Jordan and Peak-Bird.
I don't say James because I think he's going to retire at 35. He won't have any mountains left to scale, and he's a very smart businessman who knows his value is now not just on the court. Davis will be really good for the next two years and transcendental after that, and I think that more than balances out.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
HomeRunBaker said:
I'm not going to get into this whole thing again. I recall being hammered for suggesting Barry Bonds was juicing as he was cranking 80 HR's. There's obvious and three's obvious......the question is how much explosiveness he will lose and how he adjusts. He's clearly still has superior skills and maybe he hasn't slipped and he was flat the other night. That's why I said I want to see a little more of him.
OK, so let's say it's obvious. Why stop now?

To my knowledge, there's no evidence that discontinuing the use of PEDs would cause the weight loss LBJ had this summer. So unless you think he's hiding an illness, there's no reason to doubt his story about changing his diet. The question, then, is whether (1) he used PEDs before and continues to do so now, (2) he didn't use PEDs before and still doesn't, or (3) he used PEDs before and decided to stop. (For the sake of completeness, I suppose you could add a fourth option -- that he was "clean" before and started using this summer -- but I don't think anyone's claiming that.)

I'm not in either camp between (1) and (2) (frankly, I care less about the issue than most sports fans do), but I'm not understanding why you're so adamant about (3). I don't think his weight loss provides the evidence you think it does.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Blacken said:
I don't say James because I think he's going to retire at 35. He won't have any mountains left to scale, and he's a very smart businessman who knows his value is now not just on the court. Davis will be really good for the next two years and transcendental after that, and I think that more than balances out.
You might be right, but every megastar of the past 30 years besides Magic Johnson has hung around until he was a shadow of his former self.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Why do amateur weigh lifters/body builders or other professional athletes stop? I'm sure some do because they are more aware of the health risks and simply mature to think of the future. Maybe this is why Howard and LeBron decided to "change their diets" just as many MLB ball players did several years ago once the consequences were negotiated in the labor agreement. Maybe they were found to have liver damage and needed to stop abruptly. Who knows there could be a number of reasons.

The weight loss is the most obvious side effect of abruptly stopping steroid usage as your bodies adrenal glands take weeks/month to begin functioning naturally again to produce testosterone.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
In any case, LeBron turns 30 this year.  I didn't choose him because I believe that for the last 2-4 years of the 10 years in question he will be either a) retired, b) barely above average / borderline all star or c) a JAG.  So really it's arguing between 10 years of Davis and 6-8 years of Lebron.  Lebron would have to be so much better than Davis for the next 5 or so years, that it makes it almost mathematically impossible to take him (unless something crazy happens to Davis or LeBron defies the vast majority of NBA history of aging superstars).
 
You can use almost any example, but a few recent ones that come to mind of sort-of similar players are:  Michael Jordan becoming an inefficient selfish chucker at ages 38-39 (and with far less tread on his tires because he took 4 full years off); Paul Pierce running around with a fork sticking out of his back this year & last year at ages 36-37; kobe Bryant & dwyane wade having trouble staying on the floor and not exactly dominating on the floor at ages 35-36 and 32-33, respectively.  The lone exception I could find was karl Malone who was still pretty darn good (but no longer dominant) through age 39.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
ALiveH said:
In any case, LeBron turns 30 this year.  I didn't choose him because I believe that for the last 2-4 years of the 10 years in question he will be either a) retired, b) barely above average / borderline all star or c) a JAG.  So really it's arguing between 10 years of Davis and 6-8 years of Lebron.  Lebron would have to be so much better than Davis for the next 5 or so years, that it makes it almost mathematically impossible to take him (unless something crazy happens to Davis or LeBron defies the vast majority of NBA history of aging superstars).
 
You can use almost any example, but a few recent ones that come to mind of sort-of similar players are:  Michael Jordan becoming an inefficient selfish chucker at ages 38-39 (and with far less tread on his tires because he took 4 full years off); Paul Pierce running around with a fork sticking out of his back this year & last year at ages 36-37; kobe Bryant & dwyane wade having trouble staying on the floor and not exactly dominating on the floor at ages 35-36 and 32-33, respectively.  The lone exception I could find was karl Malone who was still pretty darn good (but no longer dominant) through age 39.
If the goal is to win as many regular-season games as possible in the 10-year period, then Davis is unquestionably the right choice. I assumed, however, that the goal was to win as many championships as possible in the 10-year period. If that's the goal, I think 2-3 years of LBJ at a level Davis will probably never reach more than compensates for 2-3 years of over-the-hill LBJ on the back end.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
In that case, I still take Davis when I consider that he's $10-15M cheaper each year for the next 3 years.  And that Davis is already almost as good as Lebron.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
ALiveH said:
In that case, I still take Davis when I consider that he's $10-15M cheaper each year for the next 3 years.  And that Davis is already almost as good as Lebron.
Apart from 2 games this year, no he's not. 
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
Based on the 2 games this year he's already better.  I was referring to last year.  but i suppose it depends on your definition of "almost as good."  I definitely think he's less than $10-15M worse than Lebron.
 

Blacken

Robespierre in a Cape
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2007
12,152
Davis isn't almost as good as Lebron (though he's amazing), but I think he also doesn't have to be to have a top-level impact on the game. Being able to do what he does out of the 4 or the 5 has a bigger impact than out of the 3 or 4. (Put another way, I'd take Davis and a Nic Batum over LeBron and an Anderson Varejao.)
 

SumnerH

Malt Liquor Picker
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
31,893
Alexandria, VA
ALiveH said:
In that case, I still take Davis when I consider that he's $10-15M cheaper each year for the next 3 years.  And that Davis is already almost as good as Lebron.
Reread the first post. You're paying the same max contact for whoever you pick.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
sumner, my bad.
 
But that makes it even worse.  Giving Lebron a 10-year max contract is lunacy.  It guarantees your team will be terrible & financially hamstrung in about years 7-10 of that deal.
 
At least giving Davis a 10-year max contract gives you a fighting chance to contend in all 10 years of that deal.