Who would you replace Buchholz with in the rotation?

HomeRunBaker

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At this point I'm willing to bet that Ranaudo gets Clay's start this weekend on his normal rest. What were the odds 3 years ago that two of our organizations best arms would both go Bard and Buchholz on us?
 

benhogan

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Just DL him for 2 weeks to clear his head, give him a month of rehab down at Pawtucket to work on his change and curve. Then it will be All Star break, hopefully we'll have 2013 Clay back for the 2nd half run. 
 
Rotate Webster, RDR and Renaudo into that spot.  Lets see if any of those guys grab hold.
 

ivanvamp

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Honestly, they can't be worse.  I mean:  7.02 era, 1.98 whip, 5.0 innings per start
 
Surely, Ranaudo, RDR, and Webster can do better than that.  Or at least, no worse.
 

Yazdog8

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Webster was being initially discussed with Workman when Felix went down. I know both he and Renaudo have still been walking a lot, so I'd like to see Rubby get a shot here. 
 
edit: Well said Rudy!
 

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I would keep Buchholz but require him to wear a mustache and an eye-patch whenever he showed up as Evil Buchholz instead of Good Buchholz. On those occasions, I would refuse to pitch him. The goal here would be to get him to show up as Good Buchholz and essentially replace Evil Buchholz with Good Buchholz.
 

SouthernBoSox

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This is a very important time to evaluate, and I think the guy who is nearing the end of "evaluation time" is Rubby De La Rosa. He's the oldest, he's performed well in AAA this year, and he has a very high ceiling just based on stuff.
 
I think he have to get him up and see how he responds to a few starts. You have to decide if this guy is a starter or not and the only way to really do that is to give him a fair shake.
 
I'd rather do that now than later.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We aren't yet in "evaluation mode" at the big league level. If things continue on this path we are on we'll have plenty of innings and starts available to evaluate anyone we want. You can make a case for all three but they each have their issues to where you can make a case against each as well. To me, Webster is out based on his struggles in Boston last year and failure to be consistent this year. My case for Renaudo over Rubby was simply based on one spot start being on his normal rest unlike when Workman pitched on 8 days rest last week.
 

SouthernBoSox

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HomeRunBaker said:
We aren't yet in "evaluation mode" at the big league level. If things continue on this path we are on we'll have plenty of innings and starts available to evaluate anyone we want. You can make a case for all three but they each have their issues to where you can make a case against each as well. To me, Webster is out based on his struggles in Boston last year and failure to be consistent this year. My case for Renaudo over Rubby was simply based on one spot start being on his normal rest unlike when Workman pitched on 8 days rest last week.
You are always in "evaluation mode" at the big league level.
 

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My concern with all of those guys is that they are walking 4/9 inn at AAA, so what happens when they face professional major league hitters?  I say that you rotate all three of them through the slot once, so that each one gets a ML start and two MiL starts over the next two weeks, and tell them that whoever can get their walk rate down to acceptable levels will get the spot.
 
If we wanted someone walking 5 guys per start, we would just keep Clay.
 
That said, I would love to see RDLR grab this and run with it.  He was the most exciting part of the Punto trade, and looked great in spring training.
 

HomeRunBaker

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SouthernBoSox said:
You are always in "evaluation mode" at the big league level.
You always evaluate minor league players at the big league level?

You do this in August and September once you're eliminated not 60 games into the season.
 

chrisfont9

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HomeRunBaker said:
You always evaluate minor league players at the big league level?

You do this in August and September once you're eliminated not 60 games into the season.
You don't literally mean that, do you? I mean, the Sox evaluated Bogaerts in September last year. Same with Ellsbury in 2007. When you have a need, you evaluate players in your system in the process of filling that need. I think you meant that you don't just evaluate players for their future value in the middle of a season?
 

SouthernBoSox

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HomeRunBaker said:
You always evaluate minor league players at the big league level?
You do this in August and September once you're eliminated not 60 games into the season.
They are going to be forced into calling up a minor league starter. Given that the pitchers have been performing at a similar level at AAA, I would rather call up the pitcher who needs to be evaluated the most. And I believe that guy is De La Rosa.
 

Plympton91

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I just don't think we need to "evaluate" the AAA starters. None of them have the kind of wipeout stuff that would be required to pitch effectively with those walk rates, and the high walk rates are a proxy for lack of command in the zone that will result in them getting clobbered.

To me the only two pitchers who have a future as major league starters, maybe, are Owens and Barnes. Neither of them is ready, obviously.

So to replace Buchholz in the rotation I'd stretch out Capuano and keep Wilson around for mop up duty.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Non-rhetorically: is it possible to convince Dempster to come out of retirement, or would that be a violation of some MLB rule? 
 

HomeRunBaker

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chrisfont9 said:
You don't literally mean that, do you? I mean, the Sox evaluated Bogaerts in September last year. Same with Ellsbury in 2007. When you have a need, you evaluate players in your system in the process of filling that need. I think you meant that you don't just evaluate players for their future value in the middle of a season?
My interpretation of the posters comment was that he wanted it to be Rubby because he wants to know right now if he's capable because time is running out for him......not because he feels Rubby is the best option.

If I interpreted that wrong than my post does not apply but that first paragraph appeared clear to me that he wanted Rubby to get essentially a try out due to his age, etc.

That isn't how you approach evaluating players 60 games into the year which was my point. Rubby can get his tryout in August and Sept if we keep sucking. Now if the poster feels there isn't much of a discernible difference between the ML options, which I agree with, then I'd certainly consider Rubby. I don't think that's what he meant though.
 

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Plympton91 said:
So to replace Buchholz in the rotation I'd stretch out Capuano and keep Wilson around for mop up duty.
People keep suggesting this and I don't get it. Why move a guy when he's having success and you're unable to predict how well he's going to handle the change? He might turn into a pumpkin when he has to face the order 3 times through and then you've blown an asset. I'd give at least one turn through the rotation to one of the AAA starters before I'd think about moving Cap into the rotation. 
 
HomeRunBaker said:
That isn't how you approach evaluating players 60 games into the year which was my point. Rubby can get his tryout in August and Sept if we keep sucking. Now if the poster feels there isn't much of a discernible difference between the ML options, which I agree with, then I'd certainly consider Rubby. I don't think that's what he meant though.
That's actually literally what he said. Read his other post. 
 

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glennhoffmania said:
 
I think this needs to be expanded upon.
 
It was reportedly hot and humid yesterday, which could lead to some water weight loss.  But yeah, seven pounds is quite a bit in one afternoon.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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I think Rubby is the best option.  He's got an outstanding GB rate in AAA (1.91 GO/AO rate (Ranaudo's is 0.74)) and don't forget that he pitched VERY WELL in 10 starts for the Dodgers in 2011 where he looked unphased by being in the Bigs (ahem, Webster).  Zero HRs given up in AAA with that ground ball rate, so he's less likely to let the walks hurt him.  My vote is for Rubby. 
 

glennhoffmania

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
It was reportedly hot and humid yesterday, which could lead to some water weight loss.  But yeah, seven pounds is quite a bit in one afternoon.
 
Not to mention he only played in 33% of the game.
 

benhogan

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I kind of like the idea of rotating Webster, RDR, and Renaudo as Clay's replacement to extend our 25 man roster. It feels like the pen the has been getting used extensively. So my suggestion would be to give a start to Webster, then send him back down to Pawtucket after his start and bring up a bullpen arm like Britton, Wilson, or Hill for low leverage multiple innings. When the turn comes up again bring up Rubby, send bullpen arm down, Rubby takes the start then gets shipped down after his start with another pen arm appearing.
 
Then Renaudo. rinse, repeat...
 
This should be able to keep the pen fresher, and keep Capuano available in high leverage situations.
 
If Webster, RDR, or Renaudo pitch effectively in their start (i.e. 6+ innings, 2 runs or less) then he can stick around for another start.  
 
Lets see which pitcher has the stones to stick around.
 

RedOctober3829

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Not to mention he only played in 33% of the game.
You're not factoring in warming up. I can totally see a player losing that amount of weight playing on a day like yesterday. When we played a regional at Myrtle Beach, a couple of our players went through multiple pairs of pants because they sweat through them. An afternoon game in the Deep South is very taxing on the body.

Is this a viable excuse for pitching that bad? Not a chance.
 

foulkehampshire

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Why not try somebody else? I mean, there are multiple pitchers from AA-AAA that have better MLE's than Buchholz. Really nothing to lose here. 
 

chrisfont9

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HomeRunBaker said:
My interpretation of the posters comment was that he wanted it to be Rubby because he wants to know right now if he's capable because time is running out for him......not because he feels Rubby is the best option.

If I interpreted that wrong than my post does not apply but that first paragraph appeared clear to me that he wanted Rubby to get essentially a try out due to his age, etc.

That isn't how you approach evaluating players 60 games into the year which was my point. Rubby can get his tryout in August and Sept if we keep sucking. Now if the poster feels there isn't much of a discernible difference between the ML options, which I agree with, then I'd certainly consider Rubby. I don't think that's what he meant though.
ah ok. I personally think that's complicated. If a guy has ML stuff but you need to find out whether it will translate, and for some reason it's much better to determine that now vs later (Rule 5, maybe getting burned out at AAA, etc), then there could be some urgency. From what I gathered, the discussion was that perhaps Rubby was the best suited to it, given his pretty extensive seasoning combined with stuff and success in AAA. That's been my opinion, not that I know these players.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'd go RDLR.  None of the three has really set themselves apart.  I'd set the bar higher for Webster to earn a callup given last year's struggles.  RLDR has big league experience and better stuff than Ranaudo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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RedOctober3829 said:
You're not factoring in warming up. I can totally see a player losing that amount of weight playing on a day like yesterday. When we played a regional at Myrtle Beach, a couple of our players went through multiple pairs of pants because they sweat through them. An afternoon game in the Deep South is very taxing on the body.

Is this a viable excuse for pitching that bad? Not a chance.
It actually could be a valid excuse with the pitcher not yet being acclimated to pitching not only in high-80s temperatures but in near 100% humidity which can affect a pitchers grip on the ball. Has Buchholz' control troubles been a coincidence or a direct result of no longer using his hair gel since the Pineda incident?
 

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Plympton91 said:
I just don't think we need to "evaluate" the AAA starters. None of them have the kind of wipeout stuff that would be required to pitch effectively with those walk rates, and the high walk rates are a proxy for lack of command in the zone that will result in them getting clobbered.

To me the only two pitchers who have a future as major league starters, maybe, are Owens and Barnes. Neither of them is ready, obviously.

So to replace Buchholz in the rotation I'd stretch out Capuano and keep Wilson around for mop up duty.
Of course we need to see and evaluate the AAA starters. K and BB rates are merely passable substitutes for observation. As for whether there is an out pitch for the AAA candidates, Ranaudo sounds like the worst of the bunch, since he doesn't have Barnes' reliable fastball or the wipeout offspeed pitches of Owens, Webster or de la Rosa. We have seen the last two already, and there's no question that their changeups are outstanding. Some stuff makes the leap to the majors; other stuff does not, and we need to test out each one of them.

And yes, their lack of fastball command (except perhaps for Barnes) will cost them and us some heartburn this year. Less next year, and less the year after that.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Of the AAA bunch I would pick RDLR .. He's been the most effective and has prior major league experience .. Webster would be my second choice.

Of course, if they really don't have a lot of faith in these guys then it's highly possible they'll keep them in Pawtucket to keep their trade value higher.
 

bellowthecat

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Has to be RDLR and for many of the same reasons other posters have said.  He's ready to be evaluated at the majors, his peripherals are better than the other two, and has less to gain by being in the minors than Ranaudo or Webster.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Don't know if it's true or not but I heard on the ESPN telecast tonight that Buchholz was literally in tears beweteen innngs in the Memorial Day game. Maybe I place too much emphasis on the psychological, mental aspects of baseball, but to me its all in Buchholz's head. So I say send him down to Pawtucket for a few weeks. Let him clear his head dominate once again and get his head screwed on straight. Id go with Rubby as the replacement. Webster has not impressed and I think its a tad too early for Renaudo. Thus for the ucpoming few weeks the rotation would be Lester, Lackey, Peavey, Worman and DeLaRosa.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Buchholz has looked particularly emaciated this season. I know we joke that he looks like a meth user, but I really wonder if there's some sort of actual health issue with him, or possibly a personal issue causing him mental/psychological duress. He had that gastrointestinal issue a couple of years back too.
 
His strength seems to be okay - but he looks like he hasn't had a decent piece of meat in six months, and like he sleeps three hours a night. On a bus.
 
I seem to recall a player being DL'd specifically for "psychological issues" a few years back (was it Bard, or some other case?)... whatever the problem is - be it mental, nutritional, mechanical or physical - I can't see this problem being suddenly fixed in a span of one to two starts. He probably needs to be shut down for an amount of time before he even takes a mound again.
 
That said, maybe we can trade for Josh Beckett. That'll help Clay fatten up. 
 
Just keep Josh away from Lackey.
 

uncannymanny

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benhogan said:
I kind of like the idea of rotating Webster, RDR, and Renaudo as Clay's replacement to extend our 25 man roster. It feels like the pen the has been getting used extensively. So my suggestion would be to give a start to Webster, then send him back down to Pawtucket after his start and bring up a bullpen arm like Britton, Wilson, or Hill for low leverage multiple innings. When the turn comes up again bring up Rubby, send bullpen arm down, Rubby takes the start then gets shipped down after his start with another pen arm appearing.
 
Then Renaudo. rinse, repeat...
 
This should be able to keep the pen fresher, and keep Capuano available in high leverage situations.
 
If Webster, RDR, or Renaudo pitch effectively in their start (i.e. 6+ innings, 2 runs or less) then he can stick around for another start.  
 
Lets see which pitcher has the stones to stick around.
First off, holy shit, his name is RANAUDO. There's a dozen people in here that have been saying Renaudo for weeks.

Second, this sounds like a PS3 fantasy. The team is not going to constantly ship these guys up and down messing with their heads, or burn 3 or 4 player options for one, likely temporary, rotation spot (it's possible they don't fulfill the service requirements and retain a 4th, but the peripherals of most of the AAA guys don't even make this a worthwhile approach to begin with).

Just get Clay on the DL and bring Rubby up yesterday.
 

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Hank Scorpio said:
Buchholz has looked particularly emaciated this season. I know we joke that he looks like a meth user, but I really wonder if there's some sort of actual health issue with him, or possibly a personal issue causing him mental/psychological duress. He had that gastrointestinal issue a couple of years back too.
 
His strength seems to be okay - but he looks like he hasn't had a decent piece of meat in six months, and like he sleeps three hours a night. On a bus.
 
I seem to recall a player being DL'd specifically for "psychological issues" a few years back (was it Bard, or some other case?)... whatever the problem is - be it mental, nutritional, mechanical or physical - I can't see this problem being suddenly fixed in a span of one to two starts. He probably needs to be shut down for an amount of time before he even takes a mound again.
 
That said, maybe we can trade for Josh Beckett. That'll help Clay fatten up. 
 
Just keep Josh away from Lackey.
Yeah it was Bard who was DL'ed for the psychological stuff. I really wonder what would have happened if he was never put in the rotation. Middle relievers aren't exactly the beacon of consistency but his stuff was so electric even though he showed major signs of wearing down in 2011. Was it mechanical? Did Tito run him into the ground? Was he jerked around too much and mentally couldn't handle the pressure? I don't know but I would gather it's a combination of the there.

You would almost have to go with RDLR or Webster at this point. I think both guys could provide a nice spark for the team to be honest. I would give the slight edge to Webster since he has improved his control and in my opinion has the highest ceiling out of any of the pitchers on the farm. That and as I mentioned before he seems to excel when repeating a level.

Funny that 24 months ago we would be debating the merits of bringing up Brandon Duckworth and now a get to talk about 3-4 blue chip youngsters. Amazing how wrong I was on the Punto trade.
 

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uncannymanny said:
First off, holy shit, his name is RANAUDO. There's a dozen people in here that have been saying Renaudo for weeks.

Second, this sounds like a PS3 fantasy. The team is not going to constantly ship these guys up and down messing with their heads, or burn 3 or 4 player options for one, likely temporary, rotation spot (it's possible they don't fulfill the service requirements and retain a 4th, but the peripherals of most of the AAA guys don't even make this a worthwhile approach to begin with).

Just get Clay on the DL and bring Rubby up yesterday.
 
If they are on the 40 man roster and in Pawtucket then the option has already been "burned" . Barnes is the only guy not on the 40 man 
 

Plympton91

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Tyrone Biggums said:
Yeah it was Bard who was DL'ed for the psychological stuff. I really wonder what would have happened if he was never put in the rotation. Middle relievers aren't exactly the beacon of consistency but his stuff was so electric even though he showed major signs of wearing down in 2011. Was it mechanical? Did Tito run him into the ground? Was he jerked around too much and mentally couldn't handle the pressure? I don't know but I would gather it's a combination of the there.

You would almost have to go with RDLR or Webster at this point. I think both guys could provide a nice spark for the team to be honest. I would give the slight edge to Webster since he has improved his control and in my opinion has the highest ceiling out of any of the pitchers on the farm. That and as I mentioned before he seems to excel when repeating a level.

Funny that 24 months ago we would be debating the merits of bringing up Brandon Duckworth and now a get to talk about 3-4 blue chip youngsters. Amazing how wrong I was on the Punto trade.
Bard was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome this winter dating back to when he started losing it at the end of 2011. His struggles had nothing to do with starting.

The only "blue chip" pitching prospect in the Red Sox farm system is Henry Owens. One of the reasons people say things like, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect" is because people apply the term way too loosely.
 

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Plympton91 said:
Bard was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome this winter dating back to when he started losing it at the end of 2011. His struggles had nothing to do with starting.
It was also claimed the abdominal strain in 2013 and lower back problem in 2012 were the problems.  And that Craig Hansen needed surgery to correct sleep apnea to fix his problems.
 

MakMan44

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Tyrone Biggums said:
You would almost have to go with RDLR or Webster at this point. I think both guys could provide a nice spark for the team to be honest. I would give the slight edge to Webster since he has improved his control and in my opinion has the highest ceiling out of any of the pitchers on the farm. That and as I mentioned before he seems to excel when repeating a level.
 
If anything it's Rubby that's improve his control. He's down from 5BB/9 in 2013 to a shade under 4 per 9. Webster's always been near 4 per 9. In fact, his walk rate is slightly worse than his 2013 mark. 
 

Plympton91

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Sprowl said:
Of course we need to see and evaluate the AAA starters. K and BB rates are merely passable substitutes for observation. As for whether there is an out pitch for the AAA candidates, Ranaudo sounds like the worst of the bunch, since he doesn't have Barnes' reliable fastball or the wipeout offspeed pitches of Owens, Webster or de la Rosa. We have seen the last two already, and there's no question that their changeups are outstanding. Some stuff makes the leap to the majors; other stuff does not, and we need to test out each one of them.

And yes, their lack of fastball command (except perhaps for Barnes) will cost them and us some heartburn this year. Less next year, and less the year after that.
You write that as if there were some guarantee that their fastball command is going to improve. That seems a rather heroic assumption, especially for pitchers who really aren't that young. Both Ranaudo and DLR are well outside their TJ recovery windows. Webster, if I recall started pitching late, and so may still have hope. Barnes is still adjusting to AAA. Though most future aces don't need such adjustments after basically conservative promotion timetables these guys have all had.