Who to sell at the trade deadline?

[Apisith]

Jansen
Martin
Pivetta - sell or offer QO?
O’Neill - sell or offer QO?
Hendricks - value to TBD after he returns

These 5 are our most valuable ‘assets’ IMO. Can we get a good starting pitching prospect back? Or do we prioritise the outfield?

If Pivetta is healthy is he more valuable traded or as starting depth for next year when he’s offered the QO?

 

[ALiveH]

trade for high minors pitching prospects. I still don't have faith in our ability to internally develop pitching from the draft. Houck and Lester were great, but there really haven't been that many success stories.

We have a good track record of developing star position prospects through the draft.

We're top-heavy with position player prospects. Our top 3 prospects are position players who could be in the majors next year. Our top 5 prospects are position players.

 

[BaseballJones]

Jansen
Martin
Pivetta - sell or offer QO?
O’Neill - sell or offer QO?
Hendricks - value to TBD after he returns

These 5 are our most valuable ‘assets’ IMO. Can we get a good starting pitching prospect back? Or do we prioritise the outfield?

If Pivetta is healthy is he more valuable traded or as starting depth for next year when he’s offered the QO?

Jansen - yes, trade, because you've got Hendriks coming back and he can slide into the closer's role
Martin - yes, trade
Pivetta - yes, trade - just plug Giolito into his spot in 2025
O'Neill - hmmmm....I am unsure about this one, as I've said in a previous post. I think I'd explore an extension, hopefully on reasonable money, because he's one of their only sources of RH power and fills a huge need on this team and seems to be thriving in Boston
Hendriks - see above. Keep him, and he replaces Jansen

I'd also explore trading McGuire, not because he's been bad for them but because he's been pretty solid and teams always could use solid catching, and he's a LH hitter and Teel should be making his way up to create a Teel/Wong catching tandem.

I'd also explore trading Yoshida. Personally, I like him and want him to do well HERE. And it's not like he's been terrible. He's got a 107 ops+ and has a career ops+ of 109. But given all their LH outfielders, he's just not a great fit in this organization. He definitely has some value and a team with a DH spot probably could really use a guy like him. I bet you could get something useful for him from someone.

 

[HfxBob]

I'd also explore trading Yoshida. Personally, I like him and want him to do well HERE. And it's not like he's been terrible. He's got a 107 ops+ and has a career ops+ of 109. But given all their LH outfielders, he's just not a great fit in this organization. He definitely has some value and a team with a DH spot probably could really use a guy like him. I bet you could get something useful for him from someone.

Yoshida's contract will have $63 million left on it as of the midway point of this season. Who's going to take that on for a DH with an OPS+ of 109?

JD Martinez had trouble getting signed at all after posting an OPS+ of 134 last year.

The only way you can move Yoshida is by eating a huge chunk of the contract.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Geez despite the record and recent play, I’m still optimistic for a playoff spot and think they should push for that.
But I’d still look to trade Yoshida (absorb salary, add Yorke?) for a mL pitcher.
Get rid of Jansen. I’d rather see almost anyone else in the 9th than him.
But obviously tough call…. It depends on health for the team and if they’re actually “in it”. (They were in ‘23 with lots of talent returning from injuries) and weren’t in ‘22 despite both teams being on the WC hunt. More than 5 back on 7/25- definitely. Less than with team health and possibly add talent, don’t sell.

 

[Max Power]

Geez despite the record and recent play, I’m still optimistic for a playoff spot and think they should push for that.
But I’d still look to trade Yoshida (absorb salary, add Yorke?) for a mL pitcher.
Get rid of Jansen. I’d rather see almost anyone else in the 9th than him.
But obviously tough call…. It depends on health for the team and if they’re actually “in it”. (They were in ‘23 with lots of talent returning from injuries) and weren’t in ‘22 despite both teams being on the WC hunt. More than 5 back on 7/25- definitely. Less than with team health and possibly add talent, don’t sell.

The good news this year is that Casas is due back a full month before the deadline. So we'll have a good idea what the team looks like with him back in the lineup. It's not like last year where all the reinforcements were due back after the deadline and it was too late to do anything when they stunk.

There's no chance there's a taker for Yoshida at the deadline. There's too much money involved and too many years left for a quick deal. That's something that would need to be addressed in the offseason. And if he can come back healthy this year, he'd be a big improvement over what they've been getting out of Cooper, Smith, and the rest of the rotating DH group.

 

[moondog80]

O'Neill - hmmmm....I am unsure about this one, as I've said in a previous post. I think I'd explore an extension, hopefully on reasonable money, because he's one of their only sources of RH power and fills a huge need on this team and seems to be thriving in Boston

Not sure I want to bet on the past 150 PA being the real O'Neill, esp given that Duran and Abreu look like they might be keepers. There's always a price that makes sense but given his history, I'd guess he will look to leverage the fortunate timing of his big year and cash in as much as he can. If they are in fact sellers, trade him. They can always explore signing him if they really want him back.

I'd also explore trading Yoshida. Personally, I like him and want him to do well HERE. And it's not like he's been terrible. He's got a 107 ops+ and has a career ops+ of 109. But given all their LH outfielders, he's just not a great fit in this organization. He definitely has some value and a team with a DH spot probably could really use a guy like him. I bet you could get something useful for him from someone.

His value has to be crazy low, right? Like, the key discussion won't be who is coming back, but how much $$ the Sox eat. I'm all for unloading him should the opportunity arise, but I'm not optimistic.

 

[YTF]

Geez despite the record and recent play, I’m still optimistic for a playoff spot and think they should push for that.
But I’d still look to trade Yoshida (absorb salary, add Yorke?) for a mL pitcher.
Get rid of Jansen. I’d rather see almost anyone else in the 9th than him.
But obviously tough call…. It depends on health for the team and if they’re actually “in it”. (They were in ‘23 with lots of talent returning from injuries) and weren’t in ‘22 despite both teams being on the WC hunt. More than 5 back on 7/25- definitely. Less than with team health and possibly add talent, don’t sell.

Jansen is a guy I would like to see move on and honestly I'm hoping that the Sox might be able to work something out with LA sooner rather than later. Their back end of the pen is still unsettled, but with a seven game lead in their division they're not really in a position where they need to make a deal ASAP. I'm not as down on him as some folks are. Over all he's been pretty good. He had 2-3 consecutive games where he was consistently missing high, perhaps some rust due to missing most of the spring, but his location has been better since then. He can be a bit of an adventure out there at times and I think it fair to have some concerns as to how that big body of his holds up as the season wears on.

 

[YTF]

The good news this year is that Casas is due back a full month before the deadline. So we'll have a good idea what the team looks like with him back in the lineup. It's not like last year where all the reinforcements were due back after the deadline and it was too late to do anything when they stunk.

There's no chance there's a taker for Yoshida at the deadline. There's too much money involved and too many years left for a quick deal. That's something that would need to be addressed in the offseason. And if he can come back healthy this year, he'd be a big improvement over what they've been getting out of Cooper, Smith, and the rest of the rotating DH group.

Concerning Casas... AFAIK he's not due back at that point, but rather that is when he hopes to be back. He's seems to be doing everything that he can to keep himself in some sort of baseball shape (mostly mental and visual exercises along with what he has been physically limited to) but we'll probably have a better sense of some sort of time table once he starts ramping up the physical activities including swing a bat at full speed.

 

[AlNipper49]

Geez despite the record and recent play, I’m still optimistic for a playoff spot and think they should push for that.
But I’d still look to trade Yoshida (absorb salary, add Yorke?) for a mL pitcher.
Get rid of Jansen. I’d rather see almost anyone else in the 9th than him.
But obviously tough call…. It depends on health for the team and if they’re actually “in it”. (They were in ‘23 with lots of talent returning from injuries) and weren’t in ‘22 despite both teams being on the WC hunt. More than 5 back on 7/25- definitely. Less than with team health and possibly add talent, don’t sell.

welcome to the forum, Chaim

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yoshida's contract will have $63 million left on it as of the midway point of this season. Who's going to take that on for a DH with an OPS+ of 109?

JD Martinez had trouble getting signed at all after posting an OPS+ of 134 last year.

The only way you can move Yoshida is by eating a huge chunk of the contract.

Martinez is 6 years older than Yoshida, which probably plays into his lack of suitors more than his OPS+ does.

Yoshida isn't going to get you much right now for a reason far greater than his OPS+ or his contract: he's injured. Until he returns from the IL and shows no lasting ill effects from his hand injury, he's not going anywhere. And at this stage, we have no idea when he might return.

 

[YTF]

Martinez is 6 years older than Yoshida, which probably plays into his lack of suitors more than his OPS+ does.

Yoshida isn't going to get you much right now for a reason far greater than his OPS+ or his contract: he's injured. Until he returns from the IL and shows no lasting ill effects from his hand injury, he's not going anywhere. And at this stage, we have no idea when he might return.

Yes and there lies the rub. If/when he's healthy and back he's going to need to get a meaningful amount of ABs to hopefully attract suitors as well as determine exactly how much of the contract will need to be eaten. It seems inevitable that opening up that roster spot is definitely going to have cost (TBD) attached to it.

 

[HfxBob]

Martinez is 6 years older than Yoshida, which probably plays into his lack of suitors more than his OPS+ does.

I think it probably also reflects a general devaluation of the DH position, which is not favorable to unloading Yoshida.

 

[jmanny24]

Personally I think this is 6-8 weeks premature and a lot can happen in that time. Yes they haven't played as well as they did at the beginning of the year. If it comes to the point where the point of this thread becomes more relevant there will be plenty of candidates (for me, Jansen is at the top of the list). But I have to say it's hilarious that all winter the organization was mocked for not being able to compete until 2025 and beyond, all the "2025 and 2026 are going to be awesome!" posts and now we aren't even to Memorial Day and people want to sell off pieces for...more prospects. Talk about wanting it both ways and at the same time being able to mock both sides of that fence.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

welcome to the forum, Chaim

I can’t defend my lack of trades at the ‘22 deadline- but there just weren’t takers for all the injured talent. But the ‘23 deadline had Houck, Story, Sale, Whitlock and Schreiber all expected back in early July.
Those names were better than any trade deadline pickups, and they were 3 out with lots of games against direct competition…. So I decided to just wait for the reinforcements. Everyone was terrible.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Personally I think this is 6-8 weeks premature and a lot can happen in that time. Yes they haven't played as well as they did at the beginning of the year. If it comes to the point where the point of this thread becomes more relevant there will be plenty of candidates (for me, Jansen is at the top of the list). But I have to say it's hilarious that all winter the organization was mocked for not being able to compete until 2025 and beyond, all the "2025 and 2026 are going to be awesome!" posts and now we aren't even to Memorial Day and people want to sell off pieces for...more prospects. Talk about wanting it both ways and at the same time being able to mock both sides of that fence.

I don’t think these things negate each other…. The Sox are likely looking as serious playoff competitors next season (I’m not saying they’re not this season) and they have several older veterans that don’t line up with that “opening”. They have a lot of position talent in the high minors but not much pitching depth that would be ready in that same frame.

 

[jmanny24]

I don’t think these things negate each other…. The Sox are likely looking as serious playoff competitors next season (I’m not saying they’re not this season) and they have several older veterans that don’t line up with that “opening”. They have a lot of position talent in the high minors but not much pitching depth that would be ready in that same frame.

I agree with this, I jut took the original post in a "this team is going nowhere, let's sell pieces tone". I think the names mentioned or right but I do think the team should get another 6-8 weeks to see how things shake out. Having this thread now says to me prospects are more important than really seeing what type of additional foundation they have, like the idea that I've read people opine elsewhere about dealing O'Neill, why, he's been here for all of 45 games?

 

[Rovin Romine]

While I think it's way too early, the to-be FA guys are obviously the top trade candidates: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Cooper, Smith, Anderson.

There's also: Refsnyder ('25 club option) and McGuire Arb 3 in '25.

Guys you'd maybe trade for value if you could: Story, Yoshida.

Of that group, I'd hold onto:

Pivetta (if he can be signed for a reasonable extension),​

McGuire (as Teel may not be ready),​

Refsnyder (unless an internal OF candidate emerges), and​

O'Neill (if he can be signed to a reasonable extension - if not the QO compensation probably isn't going to be better than the trade-return.)​

​

Plus maybe:​

Story (depending on how MI candidates are progressing - maybe you start him in '25, and trade him if he has a good showing, because right now it's just a salary dump at his lowest value.)​

Yoshida (same logic as Story, but more fungible if he's a bat-only player.)​

Of that group, I'd trade:

Jansen​

Martin​

Cooper​

Smith​

Anderson​

Mostly because I think we have decent relief arms in the system right now, and Cooper/Smith, even if they hit, are FAs to be.

Pivetta - yes, trade - just plug Giolito into his spot in 2025

Technically, I think Giolito has to exercise his option, which he is very likely to do, but has not yet done.

The only way you can move Yoshida is by eating a huge chunk of the contract.

And/or stapling him to a deadline-trade player. Maybe you get nothing back, but maybe you only have to eat moderate chunk of the contract.

 

[chrisfont9]

Personally I think this is 6-8 weeks premature and a lot can happen in that time. Yes they haven't played as well as they did at the beginning of the year. If it comes to the point where the point of this thread becomes more relevant there will be plenty of candidates (for me, Jansen is at the top of the list). But I have to say it's hilarious that all winter the organization was mocked for not being able to compete until 2025 and beyond, all the "2025 and 2026 are going to be awesome!" posts and now we aren't even to Memorial Day and people want to sell off pieces for...more prospects. Talk about wanting it both ways and at the same time being able to mock both sides of that fence.

Wait, isn't that the same side of the fence?

 

[chrisfont9]

I agree with this, I jut took the original post in a "this team is going nowhere, let's sell pieces tone". I think the names mentioned or right but I do think the team should get another 6-8 weeks to see how things shake out. Having this thread now says to me prospects are more important than really seeing what type of additional foundation they have, like the idea that I've read people opine elsewhere about dealing O'Neill, why, he's been here for all of 45 games?

I think the idea is that once Story comes back we have no place in the starting OF for O'Neill, who is on a one-year contract anyway. There is no guarantee he is here next year, he can sign wherever, and he will probably view Boston as a bad fit, even before Roman Anthony approaches his callup. And before you say "Story won't last," I'd offer that Mayer is looking like he's not challenged at AA, and will absolutely be the first of the big three to come up, probably next year. You have to at least see what O'Neill's value is. Remember we got Wilyer for Vazquez. There are valuable pieces available.

I'd love a RHH thumper at DH, basically a younger JDM, or what the hell, even the current JDM, who's a bit more consistent of a hitter than O'Neill. Those aren't hard to find.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Technically, I think Giolito has to exercise his option, which he is very likely to do, but has not yet done.

I'd also add that Giolito coming off TJS isn't exactly a plug-and-play replacement for Pivetta. He may not be ready to go on Opening Day and he'd probably have some sort of innings limitation (whether it's imposed by medical staff or his own body). I'd much rather have Pivetta and Giolito next year than one or the other if for no other reason than just having the depth.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd also add that Giolito coming off TJS isn't exactly a plug-and-play replacement for Pivetta. He may not be ready to go on Opening Day and he'd probably have some sort of innings limitation (whether it's imposed by medical staff or his own body). I'd much rather have Pivetta and Giolito next year than one or the other if for no other reason than just having the depth.

Yes, we ABSOLUTELY need Pivetta, and if we don't extend him, then we need a replacement. This is before we find out what is going on with Whitlock.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think the idea is that once Story comes back we have no place in the starting OF for O'Neill, who is on a one-year contract anyway. There is no guarantee he is here next year, he can sign wherever, and he will probably view Boston as a bad fit, even before Roman Anthony approaches his callup. And before you say "Story won't last," I'd offer that Mayer is looking like he's not challenged at AA, and will absolutely be the first of the big three to come up, probably next year. You have to at least see what O'Neill's value is. Remember we got Wilyer for Vazquez. There are valuable pieces available.

I'd love a RHH thumper at DH, basically a younger JDM, or what the hell, even the current JDM, who's a bit more consistent of a hitter than O'Neill. Those aren't hard to find.

Are people ok with a Duran-Rafaela-Abreu OF, though? Assuming Yoshida at DH; it feels like a team potentially really lacking in power, esp for the right side. Maybe it’s a matter of finding a lefty masher to take some of the DH/OF at bats, but I think ideally you’d want someone like O’Neill.

I imagine they hold on to him, offer the QO, and let him walk. If Anthony busts out in the next few months, maybe that changes. Is suspect the QO + a few months or TON is worth more than the likely return, especially with no great internal options to replace him.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

They probably should look to see if they can trade a couple of these guys, though most might not get selected in the Rule 5 anyway:
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1788704390502662207

(Some of the prospects who will be needed to be added to the 40-man or be exposed in the Rule 5 draft):
"Castro, Yorke, Hickey, Monegro, Fitts, Gambrell, Dobbins, Zeferjahn, and Guerrero all jump out right away, and there is a deeper crew behind them like Jordan, Paulino, Lugo, and Bastardo that seem unlikely."

Some of these guys don't really have much value at all, but others might be reasonable rule 5 picks if exposed, depending on how the season goes.
Since there looks like there could be a logjam for the 40-man roster after the season, it would be nice if we could pull off a three-nickels-for-a-dime trade somehow (or maybe more like 6 pennies for one nickel?) even if it means "losing value" in the short term. Like 3 potential 40-man guys (not necessarily any of the guys in that tweet) for one decent guy who fills a need.

Other teams don't have much 40-man space either though, so it would be hard to pull off.

 

[chrisfont9]

Are people ok with a Duran-Rafaela-Abreu OF, though? Assuming Yoshida at DH; it feels like a team potentially really lacking in power, esp for the right side. Maybe it’s a matter of finding a lefty masher to take some of the DH/OF at bats, but I think ideally you’d want someone like O’Neill.

I imagine they hold on to him, offer the QO, and let him walk. If Anthony busts out in the next few months, maybe that changes. Is suspect the QO + a few months or TON is worth more than the likely return, especially with no great internal options to replace him.

Well I guess that's an interesting "what are we trying to do here" question, because that OF saves a LOT of runs, but as you say, doesn't exactly bomb away. They are all establishing themselves as everyday players though, so I assume they will play every day.

 

[teddywingman]

I would keep Pivetta, as I think he's likely to remain an innings eater, and that's the real market inefficiency (or however that term works). There's no reason to move him.

Yoshida is garbage and I'd try to staple him to someone like Jensen in a trade. The team will not get worse by losing either of those players. In fact, the team might get better just from not having them on the roster.

Edit: "Someone like Jensen" is not accurate, cause I specifically mean Jensen. It's not that he's been that bad. It's mostly because he'll have more value to another team. I feel like there's a potential closer or two waiting in the bullpen.

Slaten might be the guy.

 

[jmanny24]

I think the idea is that once Story comes back we have no place in the starting OF for O'Neill, who is on a one-year contract anyway. There is no guarantee he is here next year, he can sign wherever, and he will probably view Boston as a bad fit, even before Roman Anthony approaches his callup. And before you say "Story won't last," I'd offer that Mayer is looking like he's not challenged at AA, and will absolutely be the first of the big three to come up, probably next year. You have to at least see what O'Neill's value is. Remember we got Wilyer for Vazquez. There are valuable pieces available.

I'd love a RHH thumper at DH, basically a younger JDM, or what the hell, even the current JDM, who's a bit more consistent of a hitter than O'Neill. Those aren't hard to find.

This is a fair POV and tbh I had forgotten O'Neill was on a 1-yr deal, so that makes a little more sense but I do feel we are a couple months from entertaining it.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would keep Pivetta, as I think he's likely to remain an innings eater, and that's the real market inefficiency (or however that term works). There's no reason to move him.

Yoshida is garbage and I'd try to staple him to someone like Jensen in a trade. The team will not get worse by losing either of those players. In fact, the team might get better just from not having them on the roster.

Nobody is taking Yoshida "stapled" to a rental player, or at all if he remains on the IL. If you're going to "staple" him to someone, it would likely have to be a relatively cheap player with value. Maybe someone like Duran, which might solve the other dilemma being discussed about the outfield being light on the power because it would clear room to keep O'Neil longer term. But that feels more like a winter move than a deadline move.

 

[HfxBob]

Yoshida is garbage and I'd try to staple him to someone like Jensen in a trade. The team will not get worse by losing either of those players. In fact, the team might get better just from not having them on the roster.

I'm not a big Yoshida fan either, but I'd rather see him in the lineup right now than not. At least he can post an OPS+ over 100. We have plenty who can't.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Jansen is an interesting one- he’s not eligible to receive a QO. He’s pretty much always been a closer; I’m sure someone would take a chance at him as a set up guy, but seems like one where the Sox may have to cover a lot of salary to get not much in return.

 

[HfxBob]

Nobody is taking Yoshida "stapled" to a rental player, or at all if he remains on the IL. If you're going to "staple" him to someone, it would likely have to be a relatively cheap player with value. Maybe someone like Duran, which might solve the other dilemma being discussed about the outfield being light on the power because it would clear room to keep O'Neil longer term. But that feels more like a winter move than a deadline move.

I'm wondering if there is a comparable example of a contract like Yoshida's getting stapled in a deadline trade.

 

[moondog80]

Jansen is an interesting one- he’s not eligible to receive a QO. He’s pretty much always been a closer; I’m sure someone would take a chance at him as a set up guy, but seems like one where the Sox may have to cover a lot of salary to get not much in return.

The ability to pay Jansen's salary is something the Sox should leverage in order to get a better return. Should they go in that direction.

 

[teddywingman]

Someone must need a DH with no power, right?

Edidiot: for spelling Jansen's name wrong.

But I really do think he's an asset to another team, where the Sox seem to have young dudes that may pitch better (or as well) as him, in a season that's not going to the Series.

But Yoshida sucks. If there's any way to get something back or lose some of the cost, you have to do it.

I would like to be proven wrong. Seems like a nice guy.

 

[YTF]

Are people ok with a Duran-Rafaela-Abreu OF, though? Assuming Yoshida at DH; it feels like a team potentially really lacking in power, esp for the right side. Maybe it’s a matter of finding a lefty masher to take some of the DH/OF at bats, but I think ideally you’d want someone like O’Neill.

I imagine they hold on to him, offer the QO, and let him walk. If Anthony busts out in the next few months, maybe that changes. Is suspect the QO + a few months or TON is worth more than the likely return, especially with no great internal options to replace him.

This is a tricky one for me. It's still early days, but Duran and Abreu have both exceeded expectations for me. I was more hopeful for Abreu and IMO he's really earned his spot in the OF. Duran has tempered my skepticism as he's become (dare I say) a solid defender and he's once again showing that he can hit big league pitching. Rafaela is clearly a glove first player who can play CF and along with Duran nearly anything from the left field foul pole to right CF should be catchable. The big question with this team overall is where the power will come from and part of that concern would include this OF group. Abreu might potentially become a 20-25 HR guy and MAYBE Duran and Rafaela combined reach that total. With a little luck we can add Anthony to the mix and perhaps if (big if) there is a path for Yoshida to be moved the DH slot opens up to allow a four man rotation between the 3 OF slot and DH can be used to get the OFers addition ABs as well as semi days off for other players.

 

[HfxBob]

Jansen is an interesting one- he’s not eligible to receive a QO. He’s pretty much always been a closer; I’m sure someone would take a chance at him as a set up guy, but seems like one where the Sox may have to cover a lot of salary to get not much in return.

If Jansen is traded at the deadline the acquiring team only has to pay 16/3 = 5.33 million.

 

[YTF]

Someone must need a DH with no power, right?

Yep that's going to be a tough one.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yep that's going to be a tough one.

It’s more likely a team that doesn’t have much good middle IF high minors depth might take one of Yorke or Meidroth AND the Sox pick up 1/2 his salary at least.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

There's no way they move Yoshida at the deadline unless they agree to eat his entire salary in the process, to say nothing of his nonexistent value. He's a better bet to be moved in the winter when payrolls have been reset and there's more roster flexibility, and they'll probably still have to eat the majority of his contract.

Jansen and Martin are the most obvious deadline candidates, though Jansen's value is low and he's not going to fetch much in return. I would guess they hold onto Pivetta in the hopes of signing him long-term, and likely O'Neill as well. Maybe someone is interested in Refsnyder as a weak-side platoon OF bat or McGuire as a backup catcher. I imagine it'll be a quiet deadline anyway, this roster doesn't have much to offer a contender.

 

[nvalvo]

Edit: posted while drafting!

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There's no way they move Yoshida at the deadline unless they agree to eat his entire salary in the process, to say nothing of his nonexistent value. He's a better bet to be moved in the winter when payrolls have been reset and there's more roster flexibility, and they'll probably still have to eat the majority of his contract.

Jansen and Martin are the most obvious deadline candidates, though Jansen's value is low and he's not going to fetch much in return. I would guess they hold onto Pivetta in the hopes of signing him long-term, and likely O'Neill as well. Maybe someone is interested in Refsnyder as a weak-side platoon OF bat or McGuire as a backup catcher. I imagine it'll be a quiet deadline anyway, this roster doesn't have much to offer a contender.

Is Jansen's value that much different than Martin's? I don't think either is going to fetch a significant return. Maybe a mid-level prospect or two at best, even subsidizing the salary.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm wondering if there is a comparable example of a contract like Yoshida's getting stapled in a deadline trade.

An injured Allen Craig with two years left on his contract springs to mind: Kelly + Craig for Litterel, Lackey, and Cash.

Nobody is taking Yoshida "stapled" to a rental player, or at all if he remains on the IL. If you're going to "staple" him to someone, it would likely have to be a relatively cheap player with value.

I'm the one that originally floated the idea. A lot of caveats apply, of course, the largest of which is that Yoshida's value will be whatever it is at the time (probably not much), so either the return isn't great, and/or the cash going has to be large. But if he comes back and is hitting at an .800 OPS clip, it's in the realm of possibility some contender would want a solid contact bat and a key pitcher, even though there's some future performance risk.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Is Jansen's value that much different than Martin's? I don't think either is going to fetch a significant return. Maybe a mid-level prospect or two at best, even subsidizing the salary.

I think that’s right; that Jansen has never really operated as anything other than a closer may limit his market, a bit, but if he’s mostly subsidized, I’m sure a team will take a chance (similar to the white sox with Kimbrel a few years ago) that he can be successful in a non-closing role.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

An injured Allen Craig with two years left on his contract springs to mind: Kelly + Craig for Litterel, Lackey, and Cash.



I'm the one that originally floated the idea. A lot of caveats apply, of course, the largest of which is that Yoshida's value will be whatever it is at the time (probably not much), so either the return isn't great, and/or the cash going has to be large. But if he comes back and is hitting at an .800 OPS clip, it's in the realm of possibility some contender would want a solid contact bat and a key pitcher, even though there's some future performance risk.

No question that if he's performing at his best (or at least very well) his value goes up. However, if he comes back and is hitting at an .800 OPS clip, that's valuable to the Red Sox too. If the team is still hovering around .500 with the same erratic offense they're currently sporting come the end of June and Yoshida comes back and puts up an .800 OPS through July, that could be the difference between buying and selling at the deadline.

I'm skeptical that Yoshida will be back in time to be traded by the deadline, let alone soon enough to establish any sort of value, so this discussion is probably entirely academic.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Is Jansen's value that much different than Martin's? I don't think either is going to fetch a significant return. Maybe a mid-level prospect or two at best, even subsidizing the salary.

Depends on the team that needs them - and there, we have to wait until July 30 to see that fully play out.

Which FWIW, is game 107 for us, so teams have about 60 games left to play before they're locked in. That's 12 turns through the rotation. Assuming trades happen the week leading up to the 30th, that's still a good long time.

Last year the Braves traded for a struggling Pierce Johnson who was on a 1 year contract at the time. They gave up their #10 prospect (plus their #28), who is pitching very well for Colorado this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vodnivi01.shtml

So, if Jansen and/or Martin are healthy at the deadline, able to step into a closing role as opposed to a bridge role (Johnson). . .I'd be pretty happy with that kind of return.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm skeptical that Yoshida will be back in time to be traded by the deadline, let alone soon enough to establish any sort of value, so this discussion is probably entirely academic.

I'm with you entirely - especially the above bit.

 

[catomatic]

Depends on the team that needs them - and there, we have to wait until July 30 to see that fully play out.

Which FWIW, is game 107 for us, so teams have about 60 games left to play before they're locked in. That's 12 turns through the rotation. Assuming trades happen the week leading up to the 30th, that's still a good long time.

Last year the Braves traded for a struggling Pierce Johnson who was on a 1 year contract at the time. They gave up their #10 prospect (plus their #28), who is pitching very well for Colorado this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vodnivi01.shtml

So, if Jansen and/or Martin are healthy at the deadline, able to step into a closing role as opposed to a bridge role (Johnson). . .I'd be pretty happy with that kind of return.

Don’t Martin’s usage patterns profile him as a pitcher too frequently unavailable to fill a closer’s role. Seemed he pitched 2X/week last year. I’ll admit I haven’t tracked it closely, this year.

Houck’s emergence as a starter combined with Whitlock’s uncertain future make bullpen roles trickier to project.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Don’t Martin’s usage patterns profile him as a pitcher too frequently unavailable to fill a closer’s role. Seemed he pitched 2X/week last year. I’ll admit I haven’t tracked it closely, this year.

Houck’s emergence as a starter combined with Whitlock’s uncertain future make bullpen roles trickier to project.

Martin pitched in back to back games 7 times and on one day's rest 20 more in 55 appearances last season. This year it's 2 and 6 in 17 appearances. So he's going on "short" rest about half the time. Jansen by comparison pitched back to back 9 times and on one day's rest 8 times in 51 appearances last year and 3 and 4 this year in 16 appearances this year (that includes a back to back to back last weekend). I don't see anything that would prevent Martin from closing if a team wanted him to.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Don’t Martin’s usage patterns profile him as a pitcher too frequently unavailable to fill a closer’s role. Seemed he pitched 2X/week last year. I’ll admit I haven’t tracked it closely, this year.

Houck’s emergence as a starter combined with Whitlock’s uncertain future make bullpen roles trickier to project.

His usage this year:

0 days rest: 2 times. v. Kenley: 3​

1: 6 v. 4​

2: 4 v. 2​

3: 0 v. 1​

4: 2 v. 3​

5: 1 v. 1​

6: 1 v. 1​

Last year:

0 days rest: 7 times. v. Kenley: 9​

1: 20 v. 8​

2: 12 v. 11​

3: 6 v. 8​

4: 3 v. 7​

5: 1 v. 3​

6: 3 v. 3​

​

(Kenley also had one DH - fucking Yea! Alex Cora.)​

​

So it seems the same mostly. And more frequent than Jansen.

 

[catomatic]

Martin pitched in back to back games 7 times and on one day's rest 20 more in 55 appearances last season. This year it's 2 and 6 in 17 appearances. So he's going on "short" rest about half the time. Jansen by comparison pitched back to back 9 times and on one day's rest 8 times in 51 appearances last year and 3 and 4 this year in 16 appearances this year (that includes a back to back to back last weekend). I don't see anything that would prevent Martin from closing if a team wanted him to.

Point taken except that an actual good team would require the services of a closer more on the order of 65 appearances, or so — and many more than 7 back to back appearances. Sox babied Martin last year for a reason that will not be mysterious to potential trading partners.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Point taken except that an actual good team would require the services of a closer more on the order of 65 appearances, or so — and many more than 7 back to back appearances. Sox babied Martin last year for a reason that will not be mysterious to potential trading partners.

Something else to consider as far as Martin's usage last year. He missed three weeks in April with an IL stint for shoulder inflammation. Upon returning he appeared in 48 of 124 team games. That's a 62 game pace over 162 game season. I really don't think they protected Martin as much as we think.