Who to buy at the trade deadline?
- Thread starter nvalvo
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But where does Rooker play? If he could play first that would be great, but since he never has, assuming he can’t. A guy who can only DH or play LF doesn’t seem like a fit with the current roster.
Zach Eflin seems like a guy who is likely to be traded. He makes $11 million this year but that bumps up to $18 million next year, and I can't see Tampa being willing to pay that.
I think they signed him with the full intention of trading him for young cheap players before his contract ends.
The previous Sox administration liked him and made a big offer for him as a free agent, but I have no idea how the Breslow front office views him.
What's to like about him: he leads the league in walks per 9 at 0.8, and is at 8.67 Ks per walk. He's at 99 IP with a 3.99 ERA/3.66 FIP. He's also been good against the Yankees: 42 IP with a 1.50 ERA in his career.
What's not to like: Tampa's vault is a pitcher's park, so his ERA+ is only 98. He has big home/road splits this year too. He'd likely be an innings eater who doesn't walk people, but would probably allow more HRs with us.
So I wouldn't want us giving Tampa good young players for the right to pay him $18 million next year. If it's a bit of a salary dump with a lower acquisition cost, then that would be fine.
Looking at Tampa pitchers, Jason Adam has been a really good reliever for them and turns 33 in a couple weeks. He's arb eligible this offseason and Tampa might want to move him for something now rather than pay decent money for an old reliever. He would be a good get for the bullpen. No idea what he would cost, he does have a few more years of control.
I think they signed him with the full intention of trading him for young cheap players before his contract ends.
The previous Sox administration liked him and made a big offer for him as a free agent, but I have no idea how the Breslow front office views him.
What's to like about him: he leads the league in walks per 9 at 0.8, and is at 8.67 Ks per walk. He's at 99 IP with a 3.99 ERA/3.66 FIP. He's also been good against the Yankees: 42 IP with a 1.50 ERA in his career.
What's not to like: Tampa's vault is a pitcher's park, so his ERA+ is only 98. He has big home/road splits this year too. He'd likely be an innings eater who doesn't walk people, but would probably allow more HRs with us.
So I wouldn't want us giving Tampa good young players for the right to pay him $18 million next year. If it's a bit of a salary dump with a lower acquisition cost, then that would be fine.
Looking at Tampa pitchers, Jason Adam has been a really good reliever for them and turns 33 in a couple weeks. He's arb eligible this offseason and Tampa might want to move him for something now rather than pay decent money for an old reliever. He would be a good get for the bullpen. No idea what he would cost, he does have a few more years of control.
I don't see a fit for Turner. He's not really appreciably better than the current DH (98 OPS+ for Turner vs 97 OPS+ for Masa) and isn't as defensively viable or versatile as Romy or Westbrook (he'd be taking one of their roster spots). Unless the Jays were giving him away for next to nothing, it's probably not worth the cost for the minimal gains.
Yoshida is 243/314/373 career vs LH, Turner is 285/353/459 this year. That’s why I’d want him.
I’d platoon him at DH, get him a bunch of at bats at 1b, PH vs lefties (for any number of guys). It’s not a huge role and I wouldn’t give up a ton but I’d take him over Jamie Westbrook; the team gives away too many at bats against LHP.
The other point is that Turner is unlikely to cost a lot - he isn't the best RH bat they could acquire but if the price is reasonable they get a guy who can fill a need and is known entity in terms of how he fits within the clubhouse etc. They don't need Turner per se but someone with a bit of seasoning who can still produce vs LH pitching feels like an obvious and fairly cheap role to fill.
Same here. Doesn;t even have to be Turner. Veteran RHB who can hit LHP and wont suffer if he isn;t playing every day. As far as Turner goes, he'd also be the backup 1Bman.
Ideally, a DH platoon would include someone who you can comfortably play in the field once in a while. Yoshida hasn't played an inning in the outfield this year and they seem afraid to even try (and with the other options, that's understandable). Turner has played some defensively but he's more or less limited to 1B at this point. That's not really ideal when you already have a number of positions in the lineup you want to play platoon with (as they have recently with the MI and outfield). Replacing Westbrook with Turner means you're playing David Hamilton (or Dom Smith or both) more frequently against LHP. I'm not sure that's a net gain.
I have no objection to a veteran RHB. I think that player needs to be more defensively viable/flexible than 39 year old Justin Turner. In other words, his function on the roster has to be more than just platooning with Yoshida.
I think you aren't giving Turner quite enough credit here. He's taken some innings at third this year, and acquitted himself alright at 2b last season. There definitely were some fatigue issues toward the end of 2023, and his current slump is pretty concerning, so I don't think he's the ideal candidate (I've convinced myself that's Paredes but I'm not sure if he's worth the likely cost), but I do believe he'd be an acceptable upgrade over Westbrook. Romy and Rafaela being so versatile definitely makes potential defensive alignments work more smoothly. Upgrade doesn't need to mean all star, but "better than Jamie/Bobby" is definitely an area of need.
I'm not going to take anything he did last year as indicative of a surefire capability going forward. Not for someone his age.
He's played at 3B in 5 games this year for the Jays (32 total innings). He's committed two errors in seven chances with a miniscule range factor of 1.00. His career range factor at third is 2.19 for comparison. If he's no longer particularly rangey at third, I wouldn't count on him being great shakes at 2B anymore (where he hasn't played at all this year). And once Casas is back, the need for a RHH 1B is small enough you really don't need to dedicate a bench spot to someone who can only do that. Presumably the bench with Turner on the roster would be Refsnyder/Abreu, Romy/Hamilton, Turner, and the catcher spot. That reduces the flexibility that Cora has used to great effect of late having Valdez or Westbrook in that third slot.
I'm all for upgrading that Valdez/Westbrook bench spot, but I think it has to be someone who can play somewhere other than 1B for it to be a true improvement. A better bat isn't enough by itself.
“Once Casas is back” could be quite a while from now, but what happens in the interim? In a perfect world with zero injuries, maybe there is no room for a guy like Turner down the stretch, but if everyone is suddenly healthy at that point, seems like an ok problem to deal with.
Bottom line to me is that this team is not good against LHP and should look to find ways to improve that.
Bottom line to me is that this team is not good against LHP and should look to find ways to improve that.
Agree. Turner to me is the prefect intersection of would help x would not cost much.
I do think as a pure rental, Amed Rosario is probably preferable. Doesn't play first but can cover the rest of the infield more capably than Turner, and his bat's been more consistent this year. Romy can keep being our RH 1B.
Turner seems very likely to be put on waivers at some point. The Jays already did that with Kiermeier.
Turner seems very likely to be put on waivers at some point. The Jays already did that with Kiermeier.
Jonathan India is an interesting thought. Mediocre defender, but great on-base skills and decent pop would make a lot of sense between Duran and Devers in the lineup. He's controllable through 2026.
How about a Hamilton and Lugo for India swap?
How about a Hamilton and Lugo for India swap?
The thing about Turner is he’s got incredibly slow bat speed (210th of 212 qualified hitters, ahead of Nicky Lopez and Luis Arraez). Not sure when that started, they’ve only begun tracking it this year. But paired with his lower EVs it seems likelier do with age than his overall approach.
I agree that Kikuchi’s an ideal get.
I also wonder about Vlad Jr. Really huge name but he's not quite lived up to expectations outside of 2021. He's a ground ball machine and a DH/bad 1B making $19 this year and $25 or so the next. Can only imagine what the Jays would want, and figure they would want do their fans the courtesy of trading him out of the division. But maybe something based around Abreu and Yorke could get talks started? Our RF depth over the next half-decade is pretty solid with Abreu, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Anthony, Bleis, Montgomery, Lugo, Garcia, and Castro among potential options.
Vlad would give us more insurance against a lingering Casas injury.
One of many potential lineups in 2025
Duran - LF
Guerrero, Jr. - DH
Casas - 1B
Devers - 3B
O'Neill - RF (*accepted QO)
Story - SS
Hamilton or Grissom - 2B
Wong - C
Rafaela - CF
I agree that Kikuchi’s an ideal get.
I also wonder about Vlad Jr. Really huge name but he's not quite lived up to expectations outside of 2021. He's a ground ball machine and a DH/bad 1B making $19 this year and $25 or so the next. Can only imagine what the Jays would want, and figure they would want do their fans the courtesy of trading him out of the division. But maybe something based around Abreu and Yorke could get talks started? Our RF depth over the next half-decade is pretty solid with Abreu, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Anthony, Bleis, Montgomery, Lugo, Garcia, and Castro among potential options.
Vlad would give us more insurance against a lingering Casas injury.
One of many potential lineups in 2025
Duran - LF
Guerrero, Jr. - DH
Casas - 1B
Devers - 3B
O'Neill - RF (*accepted QO)
Story - SS
Hamilton or Grissom - 2B
Wong - C
Rafaela - CF
I'd love to get Vlad Jr. to see if his swing plane can be tweaked to lift the ball. His average exit velocity of 94 mph is elite, but it's negated by his abysmal 6.1 degree average launch angle.
I’ve been thinking about which of the Big 3 would I be ok with trading in the right scenario. And it would have to be a killer opportunity to get a top flight #1 type SP who is locked up for a few years.
Assuming the trade was similar for each of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel, who would you be most ok with trading?
Assuming the trade was similar for each of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel, who would you be most ok with trading?
Who has more value between Casas and Vlad Jr? A swap of the two of them would go a long way to solving our LH/RH issue. Vlad Jr seems comfortable at Fenway. He is a career .348/.427/.627 hitter.
Much rather have Casas too. Vlad’s ceiling is so high based on what he did in 2021, but man he has not been great the last few years. He is such a big name and so tied to the Jays that I have to imagine they will want way more than he’s truly worth.
Yes, a fair trade would actually be Vlad plus something for Casas, but the Jays and their fans would never accept that.
Casas also doesn't appear to be part of the "too many LHB" problem; he had a 121 wrc+ vs LHP last year and started this year with a reverse split.
Interesting that Devers, in his best offensive season ever, is actually below average vs LHP for the first time since 2020.
Interesting that Devers, in his best offensive season ever, is actually below average vs LHP for the first time since 2020.
The tough part with improving the offense is that the Sox have two all stars as well as others performing as above average regulars with Casas also returning so I'm not sure benching anyone other than Yoshida is easy to do. Alonso is probably off the market with the Mets back in contention which leaves a lot of teams really needing Guerrero since right handed difference maker bats are all the rage now.
India is cost prohibitive unless they flipped him this off-season and recovered some of the depth back. Their stacked system is a great problem to have.
I'm looking for two relief arms and a starter. Upgrades are upgrades.
India is cost prohibitive unless they flipped him this off-season and recovered some of the depth back. Their stacked system is a great problem to have.
I'm looking for two relief arms and a starter. Upgrades are upgrades.
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This is an interesting question.
For the record, I agree with you about what the "return" would need to be to consider it. I agree about a top flight SP with term left (I was arguing for this in the off-season relative to guys like Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease and to a certain extent Luzardo as well).
That said, I'd also do it for it for a top flight RHH as well. Case in point, not that it's in any way realistic but if you could land Ozzie Albies for one of them, I'd do it in a second. Of course, if that were suggested we'd know because we'd hear AA laughing Breslow off the phone all the way from Atlanta. But just to make the point of the type of return.
For me, the one I'd be "most" comfortable trading is Mayer. His splits against LHP have me slightly concerned. He has an .885OPS against RHP but only .653 against LHP (neither Teel nor Anthony have such a pronounced split). I don't know if this is something that I should be concerned about or not - and to be clear I'm not saying "he stinks, get rid of him" but in a world where I could land Logan Gilbert or Ozzie Albies for a package headlined by one of those three and it was "choose to deal Anthony, Mayer or Teel", it'd be Mayer and that is why.
I don't think the Sox are going to do anything THAT aggressive this trade deadline, for the record. But it's an interesting thought discussion.
This is my thinking exactly - I do think there's a certain logic to getting a RH DH/OF/1B type, like a Mark Canha or a Miguel Andujar, but they'd be tough to fit onto the roster in the near term - I guess you'd send Romy down in that scenario? Seems sub-optimal but maybe I'm overthinking it.
What I don't super understand is the desire to bring in another 2B, particularly one who has team control beyond this year. If you don't think the current group is adequate, then why not just wait until Grissom is back? Or hell, just give Yorke the shot, he's over 100 PAs in Worcester and still hitting well (and has to be added to the 40-man this off-season anyway). Either way, I'd rather save the trade chips for pitching help than someone like India or Rodgers.
(I will note that I'm already on record as saying Grissom is the guy who's effectively the odd man out and he's the one to trade. I will also note that he is exactly the kind of player Jerry Dipoto loves to trade for.)
Wouldn’t the immediate move to be send Westbrook down? After that, I would think Smith’s job would be in jeopardy (assuming the acquired player can play first).
I assume Westbrook goes down when Grissom returns (unless he and Valdez have flip-flopped again) and Smith is DFA'd when Casas returns. I guess you could just keep Grissom in Worcester when he's back if you bring in another hitter, but that would further reinforce the idea that he's expendable to me.
EDIT: I get what you mean now, yeah, I was talking about the "final form"/"everyone's healthy" version of the roster and we're not there yet.
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Yes the stupid Mets had to get back into contention.
I'd been dreaming about a double-move for Alonso/Severino - (cheap b/c the Mets would want to stick it to the Yankees) but it looks like no such luck now.
That's one of the toughest part of this "who to buy thread" so many potential buyers and you don't know who the sellers are.
Prices are bound to be so high that it almost makes me want to be a seller.
Nathan Graham and Grant Schiller of Baseball Prospectus have a less optimistic write up on Teel today. The final paragraph was:
I left liking Teel, but fading him against his current prospect rankings. The most likely outcome feels like a second-division starter or quality backup, especially given the sudden influx of strong-hitting catchers and catching prospects.
Full article is behind a paywall
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/92246/monday-morning-ten-pack-notes-from-the-futures-game/
I left liking Teel, but fading him against his current prospect rankings. The most likely outcome feels like a second-division starter or quality backup, especially given the sudden influx of strong-hitting catchers and catching prospects.
Full article is behind a paywall
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/92246/monday-morning-ten-pack-notes-from-the-futures-game/
Speaking of whom - he appears to be good again.
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/drake-baldwin-axiel-plaz-headline-10-statcast-standouts-july-15/
"The key takeaways from the last chart are Yorke’s 92.7 mph average EV (3.7 mph above MLB average) and his 105.9 mph 90th percentile EV (1.9 MPH above MLB average), as well as all the solid gold coloring on his chase rates. This isn’t a weak-hitting, bloop singles guy; far from it. Yorke has found a way to tap into average-to-plus raw power, leveraging plus-plus plate discipline with very good contact skills. The underlying data would strongly suggest that Yorke has recaptured his top 100 form. "
Yorke is on fire, no doubt. Problem with him and also Matthew Lugo is the season-long stretches of ineptitude that have plagued them. But maybe this last 100 PA is the real Yorke! Impossible to know yet.
Adding him to the 40 man is a tough proposition though when you've already got like a bakers dozen middle infielders on the 40 man, several of who have longer and more illustrious track records of success than 100 PA of nuclear activity in the launching pad that is Worcester.
Presumably, if/when they reach the point where they're ready to add Yorke to the 40-man, they're going to have cleared out some of the middle infielders already on the roster. Westbrook is an easy DFA when they need his roster spot. Any of Hamilton/Valdez/Grissom/Gonzalez could be traded in the next few weeks (or the off-season). Of course, so could Yorke.
I think one thing is for certain. They're not promoting anyone based on 100 PA worth of "nuclear activity" unless they're desperate for warm bodies. They are not desperate at present.
How about Andrew Heaney? He is a LHP who is a bit above league average, is a FA after this year, would likely cost way less than Flaherty, and is in AL West, so more likely to be able to acquire him over Kikuchi from AL East team. Maybe for Lugo and a low level flier could get it done?