Who to buy at the trade deadline?

Rovin Romine

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I wasn't aware of Crochet's shoulder problems when I jumped on the bandwagon, so I agree with you that he's probably not worth giving up Anthony for (and certainly not Anthony plus Fitts).

I do think that Anthony is the most expendable of our major assets, but maybe there's not a trade out there that makes sense.

I also think SP is our area of greatest need, so if the cost and risk with Crochet is too high, and Lorenzen is now hurt, then maybe we just hope that Breslow can find the diamond in the rough that Bailey can polish into a gem.
I'm just completely puzzled at why people want to trade Anthony at all. Why? And why this year? Do you think he's unrealistically hyped and does not have a ML skillset or something?

He's a power-hitting CF with no significant platoon split who is in AA at the age of twenty. The only knocks against him are his speed is average and his K rate is a touch high at 26% (14% BB rate.) And this is in Portland, which is decidedly not a hitter's park for some reason (his OPS is .871 in away games.)
 

shaggydog2000

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I think that’s true, but I also think it’s true that fringe 40 man guys have really, really little trade value.
And from my understanding Boston is far from the only team with 40 man issues these days. So it might be hard to combine a bunch of fringe 40 man guys for one decent prospect, or for a bunch of prospects that don't need to be protected. Other teams are in the same place the Sox are.
 

LoLsapien

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Might be able to make a trade on the edges, like a Yorke (for example, if Breslow has no plans to protect him) for another team's Rule 5 pitcher that might make our roster.
 

dynomite

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Buying and selling at the same time? Didn't that same indecision just get Bloom fired?
I dont think indecision got him fired. We'll never know, but I think it was his mis-evaluation of the quality of the major league club at the deadline two years running; combined with holding out for too much of a return for the likes of Sale and Verdugo (*if* the reports are true). Doing little or nothing is a decision.
Right, we'll never know. I feel like all of it played a role, as well as bad timing.

Take the decision to let Schwarber walk for 4 years/$80M after 2021. Okay, fine, you don't want to lock up a DH-only bat, I hated it at the time but I understood it with a year of JDM left. But then JDM left, and Bloom needed another bat... so he gave an even longer deal (5 years/$90M) to Yoshida to be an inferior basically DH-only bat. Was that bad evaluation? Bad timing? Indecision?

Same with the trade deadlines. He made some good deals, to be sure (trading for Schwarber, trading Workman/Hembree for Pivetta, and dealing Vazquez for Abreu/Valdez) but in both 2022 & 2023 oversaw Red Sox teams that were treading water in July, hamstringing his ability (and probably ownership's as well) to decide whether to "sell" or "buy" (if we're using those terms).

I'll never know how to properly evaluate the Bloom tenure.

Back to the topic at hand:

I looked at that list earlier, and I'd be happy with an Eovaldi reunion. He needs another 90 innings for next year to vest at $20 million, otherwise a $2 million payout.
Interesting one, although with Scherzer and Degrom on their way back it's hard for me to see the Rangers selling.

I think we (mostly) all agree the team needs another starting pitcher. I'm wondering who else is available. Bleacher Report articles are usually a little click baity, but this is a pretty good summary: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10125163-ranking-garrett-crochet-and-top-10-starting-pitchers-on-the-summer-mlb-trade-market


10. RHP Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals
9. RHP Frankie Montas, Cincinnati Reds
8. RHP Cal Quantrill, Colorado Rockies
7. LHP Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
6. RHP Luis Severino, New York Mets
5. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays
4. RHP Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
3. RHP Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox
2. LHP Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins
1. LHP Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Luzardo's injury makes him murkier.

Anderson would be a needed LHP but he'd cost $13M next year and his terrible FIP suggests he's getting lucky this year: 14 GS, 6-6, 2.58 ERA (4.69 FIP), 1.19 WHIP, 38 BB, 58 K, 87.1 IP, 3.6 WAR

Fedde as noted earlier in the thread is an interesting one: since returning from Korea, this year he's got 15 GS, 5-1, 3.09 ERA (3.45 FIP), 1.17 WHIP, 23 BB, 83 K, 87.1 IP, 3.4 WAR, and would only cost $7.5M for 2025.
 

grimshaw

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As to both "selling" and "buying" - this piece by Matt Gross at OTM points out that the Sox have a LOT of Rule 5 eligible talent coming up at the end of the year.
It would behoove Craig to consolidate some of this excess into a quality piece or two if we can.

I feel like the Sox probably _should_ both add and subtract at the deadline. I don't think we should mortgage one of the big three for just this year. Hopefully this year isn't just a one-off and we're in the middle of building a pipeline to a machine.
I see a lot of slightly above to below replacement level flotsam on this current 39 of 40 man roster, so maybe the crunch isn't really that bad.

Campbell
Westbrook
Heinemann (though they need a catcher if Teel isn't ready).
Keller
Horn
Mata
Dalbec
Walter
Uwasawa

Casas will probably replace Smith, and Hendricks, maybe Winckowski.

Protected guys would probably be Yorke, Lugo, Jordan, Fitts and Penrod. The other guys who are valuable are either deep depth, not even in AA or injured.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I see a lot of slightly above to below replacement level flotsam on this current 39 of 40 man roster, so maybe the crunch isn't really that bad.

Campbell
Westbrook
Heinemann (though they need a catcher if Teel isn't ready).
Keller
Horn
Mata
Dalbec
Walter
Uwasawa

Dominic Smith probably won't have a role either but isn't worth much.

Protected guys would probably be Yorke, Lugo, Jordan, Fitts and Penrod. And then Casas and Hendricks coming back.
And Story. And Whitlock. And Giolito. And Murphy.
 

nvalvo

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Here's one that I expect to be pretty unpopular, but I think is kind of interesting.

Yoan Moncada is allegedly due back around the All Star Break — with the stress on the "allegedly" — and I imagine he'd be extremely available. He is in the last year of a 5/$70m extension and has a $25m option/$5m buyout for 2025 (so his AAV hit for this year would be something like $12m). That's not a ton of money and it's a very short commitment, but it's enough money that his trade value is probably negative.

He's hurt... a lot, but when actually healthy he's a good switch hitter and good defensive infielder at 3B/2B. This is a gamble in the nature of acquiring an injured Schwarber in 2021: high reward, low cost, low expected value.

I bet they would give us Moncada+ (where + indicates a relief pitcher or some of Moncada's money) for Nick Yorke, or really for any position player with zero service time who projects to be a major leaguer. They don't have a lot of position-player prospects behind their top guy, Colson Montgomery.

But it might be more interesting, if they are game — they shouldn't be — to acquire Moncada and one of their starting pitchers (Fedde?) together, where taking Moncada's money off their ledgers reduces the prospect cost. Now, they should be trying to eat money in trades to maximize the prospect returns and jumpstart their rebuild, but you never know with the White Sox. They do not reliably do what I think they should do, let's put it that way.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I'm just completely puzzled at why people want to trade Anthony at all. Why? And why this year? Do you think he's unrealistically hyped and does not have a ML skillset or something?

He's a power-hitting CF with no significant platoon split who is in AA at the age of twenty. The only knocks against him are his speed is average and his K rate is a touch high at 26% (14% BB rate.) And this is in Portland, which is decidedly not a hitter's park for some reason (his OPS is .871 in away games.)
I don’t think anyone necessarily wants to give up Anthony, but getting a young, controlled pitcher like Crochet is not going to be cheap, and given the assets the Sox have, Roman may be seen as the most expendable. But, yeah, if he can be had for Nick Yorke, Dicky Fitts, and Cooper Criswell, that is preferable.
 

jon abbey

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If it's a choice between trading one of those guys for something useful or losing them in the Rule 5 draft, why would you not choose the former?
I just want to give this an actual answer because it's often overlooked. It's never a choice between these two possibilities, the third option is not trading them, having them not be selected (or selected and returned), and getting another year to evaluate them in your own system before next year's 40 man decisions.

Only 10 players were taken in the entire rule 5 last year, at least 2 of those 10 have been returned to the original teams (Sauer and Drohan). We spend a lot of time worrying about it (me too) but it's very rarely meaningful.
 

ShaneTrot

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The 26 man roster just makes it hard to keep a rule 5 position player. The rule is you can have up to 13 pitchers then add the 8 position players plus a back up catcher, you basically end up with 4 spots. You just lose a lot of roster flexibility if you have a rule 5 position player that you can’t option. I guess if you are a lousy team and you want a Blaze Jordon or Nick Yorke maybe you can make it work. But those guys don’t have much position versatility. I can see why pitchers get taken in the Rule 5 draft, you can hide one in your bullpen, plus pitchers get hurt so you may be able to stash him on the IL.
How often do we see fringe prospects traded for anything of value? Why do we always act like the guys eligible for the rule 5 draft are going to become the next George Bell or Josh Hamilton or Shane Victorino if they aren't protected?
 

Rovin Romine

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Here's one that I expect to be pretty unpopular, but I think is kind of interesting.

Yoan Moncada is allegedly due back around the All Star Break — with the stress on the "allegedly" — and I imagine he'd be extremely available. He is in the last year of a 5/$70m extension and has a $25m option/$5m buyout for 2025 (so his AAV hit for this year would be something like $12m). That's not a ton of money and it's a very short commitment, but it's enough money that his trade value is probably negative.

He's hurt... a lot, but when actually healthy he's a good switch hitter and good defensive infielder at 3B/2B. This is a gamble in the nature of acquiring an injured Schwarber in 2021: high reward, low cost, low expected value.

I bet they would give us Moncada+ (where + indicates a relief pitcher or some of Moncada's money) for Nick Yorke, or really for any position player with zero service time who projects to be a major leaguer. They don't have a lot of position-player prospects behind their top guy, Colson Montgomery.

But it might be more interesting, if they are game — they shouldn't be — to acquire Moncada and one of their starting pitchers (Fedde?) together, where taking Moncada's money off their ledgers reduces the prospect cost. Now, they should be trying to eat money in trades to maximize the prospect returns and jumpstart their rebuild, but you never know with the White Sox. They do not reliably do what I think they should do, let's put it that way.
Hard pass.

Moncada is purely a 3B who last played elsewhere in 2018. Defensively he's better than Devers, but you'd be replacing Dever's bat with Moncada's when he plays. And Moncada's bat is not good. He last had a semi-full season in 2021 with a 116 OPS+. Since then he's been injured and has managed a 77 and a 98. This year he's hitting better - but in all of 11 games.

So, we displace Romy Gonzalez or Valdez on the roster for Moncada and hope he can just fire it up to his 2021 numbers? Even though he has not been able to do that in the past 2 years? And then we'll play him occasionally at 3B or DH?

(And as a PS, Schwarber was one of the hottest hitters in baseball before he was injured. The expected upside was high, but there was some risk re: the timeline of his recovery.)
 

nvalvo

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Hard pass.
This is more or less what I was expecting LOL.

Yes, that’s a good presentation of the bear case. But yeah, my thought was to use Moncada at 2B, 3B, and DH (DHing Devers some).

You get him cheap and you pull the plug if it doesn’t work. If he’s good, then the one-year option is interesting. When he’s right (i.e., occasionally and not recently), he’s quite good!
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Maybe @jon abbey can weigh in here, but don’t the Yankees also need a 1B/DH type with Rizzo and Stanton hurt? Or is the plan to just try to get by until they’re back?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The Astros are getting hot again damnit. I suspect that they're going to be in the mix all up through the end. I'm bearish on the Rangers though even with Scherzer returning. I was hoping that one of the options for a RHH power bat could have been Bregman to backup 1B and split 3B and DH duties with Devers.
That said... I think the Sox are going to sink or swim with Yoshida at DH, and he has looked like he's pulling out of a slump a little bit more. With the good depth the Sox have, I don't think it's necessary to get a RHH power bat as it seems they can really stack the deck against a good lefty now with Refsnyder and O'Neill.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe @jon abbey can weigh in here, but don’t the Yankees also need a 1B/DH type with Rizzo and Stanton hurt? Or is the plan to just try to get by until they’re back?
Is this about Pete Alonso? The Mets are not trading him to the Yankees, it’s not worth the backlash.

Also the Yankees have depth in the minors here, they already brought up Ben Rice and they have other possibilities too.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Is this about Pete Alonso? The Mets are not trading him to the Yankees, it’s not worth the backlash.

Also the Yankees have depth in the minors here, they already brought up Ben Rice and they have other possibilities too.
Not necessarily about Alonso specifically, but thank you for the insights nonetheless.

EDIT: I was aware of the Davis acquisition; I assume he is just there to be a warm body and wouldn’t affect a hypothetical pursuit of an actual good 1B/DH - or 3B, for that matter. But it seems their energies are focused elsewhere at this time.
 
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shaggydog2000

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The Astros are getting hot again damnit. I suspect that they're going to be in the mix all up through the end. I'm bearish on the Rangers though even with Scherzer returning. I was hoping that one of the options for a RHH power bat could have been Bregman to backup 1B and split 3B and DH duties with Devers.
That said... I think the Sox are going to sink or swim with Yoshida at DH, and he has looked like he's pulling out of a slump a little bit more. With the good depth the Sox have, I don't think it's necessary to get a RHH power bat as it seems they can really stack the deck against a good lefty now with Refsnyder and O'Neill.
I think they need to give Yoshida enough at bats to figure out if they need to do something with him in the offseason and upgrade the DH spot. That's a big contract, you can't eat it based on a bad half season and an injury wrecked half season. A good season from here on would be enough to give him another shot. If he keeps on stinking you need to move on.
 

jon abbey

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Not necessarily about Alonso specifically, but thank you for the insights nonetheless.

EDIT: I was aware of the Davis acquisition; I assume he is just there to be a warm body and wouldn’t affect a hypothetical pursuit of an actual good 1B/DH - or 3B, for that matter. But it seems their energies are focused elsewhere at this time.
Stanton they expect back in a month, Dominguez can be in that mix too. Their big issues currently are two guys still playing, Torres and LeMahieu, both awful.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Stanton they expect back in a month, Dominguez can be in that mix too. Their big issues currently are two guys still playing, Torres and LeMahieu, both awful.
Ah, so maybe they’d be interested in someone like Luis Rengifo or Brendan Rodgers?
 

grimshaw

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The 26 man roster just makes it hard to keep a rule 5 position player. The rule is you can have up to 13 pitchers then add the 8 position players plus a back up catcher, you basically end up with 4 spots. You just lose a lot of roster flexibility if you have a rule 5 position player that you can’t option. I guess if you are a lousy team and you want a Blaze Jordon or Nick Yorke maybe you can make it work. But those guys don’t have much position versatility. I can see why pitchers get taken in the Rule 5 draft, you can hide one in your bullpen, plus pitchers get hurt so you may be able to stash him on the IL.
How often do we see fringe prospects traded for anything of value? Why do we always act like the guys eligible for the rule 5 draft are going to become the next George Bell or Josh Hamilton or Shane Victorino if they aren't protected?
And it's not like the Sox are the only team in a roster crunch or have the best available players.
 

ookami7m

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I would like Willy Adames as a second baseman RHH bat
I would also like Shohei Ohtani to replace Yoshida as DH. I'm guessing both of these are equally likely. Why would the Brewers (who are leading their division) trade away Adames?
 

Sin Duda

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Someone upthread mentioned Toronto's Lefty SP Kikuchi. In addition to being a fun name to say, he's a league average pitcher (4.00 ERA, 3.95 FIP) who, per Savant, has an outstanding breaking ball performance. He had 167 IP in '22 and 101 this season. That sounds like someone the Pitching Lab(TM) could coax good starts out of at least half the time. He's making $10M and is a free agent at the end of the season. Is Yorke enough?
 

Cassvt2023

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Someone upthread mentioned Toronto's Lefty SP Kikuchi. In addition to being a fun name to say, he's a league average pitcher (4.00 ERA, 3.95 FIP) who, per Savant, has an outstanding breaking ball performance. He had 167 IP in '22 and 101 this season. That sounds like someone the Pitching Lab(TM) could coax good starts out of at least half the time. He's making $10M and is a free agent at the end of the season. Is Yorke enough?
I was wondering the same thing. But than started wondering if a former 1st round pick who is tearing the cover off the ball in AAA is actually an overpay for 2 months of a league average SP?
 

simplicio

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It was probably me, because my feeling is to get the best guess of what Breslow is looking for in pitchers, start with the Pitching+ family of metrics, and Kikuchi is the best rental available by those numbers. The Kyle Boddy hire is not a coincidence. Neither is this:
85446

Kikuchi has produced against tough competition (as opposed to Flaherty, who's produced very well but against mostly soft teams).

85447
 

simplicio

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I was wondering the same thing. But than started wondering if a former 1st round pick who is tearing the cover off the ball in AAA is actually an overpay for 2 months of a league average SP?
Yorke might be a slight overpay? Ultimately I'm not sure it matters, cause we need to get rid of a 2B guy somehow; we can't spend 10-15% of our 40 man space on one position this winter. If they'd take Valdez instead that might be preferable? But I don't think that's a given, and it's probably greater near term risk cause he's shown he can hit in Boston.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Yorke might be a slight overpay? Ultimately I'm not sure it matters, cause we need to get rid of a 2B guy somehow; we can't spend 10-15% of our 40 man space on one position this winter. If they'd take Valdez instead that might be preferable? But I don't think that's a given, and it's probably greater near term risk cause he's shown he can hit in Boston.
Does Toronto need/want a 2B? Is Schneider not actually a viable option there? I see he's played more LF this year, is he bad defensively?
 

Doctor G

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I would also like Shohei Ohtani to replace Yoshida as DH. I'm guessing both of these are equally likely. Why would the Brewers (who are leading their division) trade away .the .. have as closer Adames?
Sox have Jenson/QUOTE]Adames is a pending free agent.They need a closer.Sox have Jenson.
 

Cassvt2023

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Yorke might be a slight overpay? Ultimately I'm not sure it matters, cause we need to get rid of a 2B guy somehow; we can't spend 10-15% of our 40 man space on one position this winter. If they'd take Valdez instead that might be preferable? But I don't think that's a given, and it's probably greater near term risk cause he's shown he can hit in Boston.
If they'd take Valdez, I'd do that in a second. I think he is a future DH. I'd rather use Yorke as part of a larger trade to get someone controllable beyond this year without having to give up one of the big 4.. That would still leave us with Story, Grissom, Hamilton, Romy Rafaela for next year, with Mayer, Sogard, Meidroth and Campbell in the wings.
 

LogansDad

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I believe you could convince the Brewers to trade Adames, because, like you said, he is a pending free agent.

I don't believe Jansen would even be a starting point, though. It would probably take at least one of ATM to get it even started.
 

simplicio

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Does Toronto need/want a 2B? Is Schneider not actually a viable option there? I see he's played more LF this year, is he bad defensively?
I don't follow them well enough to get a real sense of their needs, but Schneider has been really bad at hitting since May, and he's mostly been in LF even after the Jays cut Biggio.

Their every day 2B for the last month has been Horwitz, who's been great but wasn't very highly ranked in their system, so there's a valid question about whether he's for real in the long term or just off to a blazing start.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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If they'd take Valdez, I'd do that in a second. I think he is a future DH. I'd rather use Yorke as part of a larger trade to get someone controllable beyond this year without having to give up one of the big 4.. That would still leave us with Story, Grissom, Hamilton, Romy Rafaela for next year, with Mayer, Sogard, Meidroth and Campbell in the wings.
There are plenty of teams in contention who want to add a solid innings-eating starter to their rotation. You're not going to land Kikuchi for the change you found under the couch cushion.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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With Slaten going down, the clear need seems to be a RH in the pen. You could add a starter and move Winck to the pen full time, but yeah, it’s all about pitching now.
 

simplicio

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I already thought they needed to add a RP, and now with Slaten down I think it might be two?

Weissert has been an abject disaster the last couple weeks. Very clearly broken.
Bernardino is more quiet about it, but he's also been pretty bad over the same time frame.
(Slaten was also shaky lately, his time off due to injury might ultimately be positive)
Bailey Horn and Chase Anderson on the same roster feels redundant to me (plus Brad Keller in the minors)
There doesn't seem to be anyone in AAA close to contributing; Speas still hasn't thrown a pitch, Campbell is a wreck (not sure if he's thrown since getting sent down again either), Wingenter is a project who's pretty far from contributing.

A name that's popped out to me is Calvin Faucher from MIA. He's a stuff+ anomaly (his cutter rates a 194, the third highest value of any pitch in baseball) but he hasn't translated that to overwhelming real world results. He walks to many and his good stats this year are seriously buoyed by giving up 0 HR so far. I'd be curious to see what Bailey's lab could turn him into.
 

Cassvt2023

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If the A's were willing to package Rooker and JP Sears, what do you think the Sox would have to give up? Sears is around league average, 28 yrs old and arb eligible in 2026. Maybe the Bailey lab could get a bit more out of him. He did throw 173 innings last year.
 

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If the A's were willing to package Rooker and JP Sears, what do you think the Sox would have to give up? Sears is around league average, 28 yrs old and arb eligible in 2026. Maybe the Bailey lab could get a bit more out of him. He did throw 173 innings last year.
Sears certainly had a good audition.
 

E5 Yaz

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If the A's were willing to package Rooker and JP Sears, what do you think the Sox would have to give up? Sears is around league average, 28 yrs old and arb eligible in 2026. Maybe the Bailey lab could get a bit more out of him. He did throw 173 innings last year.
Why would Oakland package them when, if they're open to trading both, they likely would get more of a return by dealing them in separate trades?
 

simplicio

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I think Sears is getting a major benefit from the Coliseum suppressing HR. 0.69 HR/9 at home, 1.61 away.

Rooker has no home here. What are we going to do with two full time DH?

Isaac Paredes, Jonathan India, Justin Turner, Ahmed Rosario, maybe Yandy Diaz, those are the types of guys we should be looking at.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Not to get too nostalgic, but adding Turner and Eovaldi would be pretty ideal. Turner has had two great months and two awful, but can still hit lefties which is all he’d be needed for. Eovaldi solidifies the rotation and is a guy you’d want starting a must win game.
 

nvalvo

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I think Sears is getting a major benefit from the Coliseum suppressing HR. 0.69 HR/9 at home, 1.61 away.

Rooker has no home here. What are we going to do with two full time DH?

Isaac Paredes, Jonathan India, Justin Turner, Ahmed Rosario, maybe Yandy Diaz, those are the types of guys we should be looking at.
I see this very differently.

Rooker has years of control beyond the present. Our window is opening, not closing.