Who to buy at the trade deadline?

joe dokes

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Who goes down and/or stops playing if Grissom comes up? All of his substitutes have outplayed him.
These things most often take care of themselves. But since they probably see Grissom as a future fixture, I think they'll again give him some run.

Good points above about the longer-term SP. Taking care of any potential positional logjams or 40man roster squeezes before the offseason might yield a better return. *If* the team's relative success so far matches the expectations Breslow communicated to ownership in March/April, then he might get some $$-related leeway. I dont think Bloom had the confidence of the FO with respect his assessment of the major league team's immediate prospects.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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The task of identifying potential trades narrows significantly by looking only at the likely sellers (and yes this might shift over the next few weeks):

AL East- Toronto, maybe but would likely be less inclined to trade with Boston
Potential reunion with Justin Turner? He was terrible in May and has been excellent in June.

AL Central- White Sox
We've all rehashed Luis Robert (strong vote no from me) and Crochet (who will likely be on a significant innings cap, which makes the trade to a contender a bit more complicated). Thoughts on Erick Fedde? Under contract through next year, not cheap, but having a really good season. Maybe a reunion with Tommy Pham, especially if ONeill is moved?

AL West- A's and Angels
I've already made my sales pitch for trying to acquire Tayler Ward from the Angels. Seems to be under-performing his underlying stats and has two more years of arbitration. Brent Rooker? I think I've seen his name come up on this board. Might be a DH long term but has some really intriguing offensive numbers and has 3 more years of control.

NL East- Miami
Luzardo has appeared here before... not sure how realistic that would be for the Sox.

NL Central- None

NL West- Colorado
I guess Brendan Rodgers could be on this list, but there would have to be a bunch of other moves to make that make sense. Could Bailey and team bring the best out of Cal Quantrill? One more year of arbitration.
The team to watch for me in this space is Detroit - Jack Flaherty is an obvious rental category, and Mark Canha is a competent RH bench bat OF/DH/1B type if that's something you think they need.
 

simplicio

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I don’t get the love for Tyler Anderson. 34 with a career 4.32 FIP who had a 4.56 FIP this year. Well below average velocity and K rate. He’s getting soft contact and had a crazy good BABIP but his ERA looks like a mirage. If he’s cheap sure, but he looks more like a depth piece and not a guy we’d want starting a playoff game.
He's also not a strong pitching+ guy, and we know they weight that stuff pretty heavily. That's what landed me on Kikuchi, as a rental from a non-contender with strong stuff+ metrics (15th among qualified starters).
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I think those offers get hung up on pretty fast. It will absolutely take a top 100 prospect plus good lottery tickets to get Crochet at the trade deadline. If you are looking to bolster depth and quality of the middle to backend of the rotation, maybe you pivot to teammate Erick Fedde instead who is signed through 2025? It is tough to see who will be sellers at this point other than the obvious. Personally. I would add a minor piece for depth to help the remainder of the year. Flaherty? T. Anderson? Flaherty may cost more than we want for 1/2 season. If you want a big name to headline the rotation, go big for Burnes or Fried in the offseason.
Re: Crochet - he might well be the best SP available at the deadline so there will be a lot of competition for him, driving the price up, quite possibly to more than the Sox should be willing to pay.
Re: Tatis - he just went on the IL, is projected to be out 6 weeks which would bring him back right around the deadline.
My original post offered Anthony, Fitts, Sandling/Monegro, and a lottery ticket hitter -- fairly comparable to the Sale trade. Two posters shot that down as too much to pay. So I modified it to the Yorke/Lugo fronted packages and you two shot those down as too light.

But nobody offered a different set of names, and I'm interested to see if SOSH can agree to a package for a youngish frontline starter with a short track record of success (sounds like Houck) with three more years of control who might be open to an extension (non-Boras client). Or if SOSH even wants a pitcher like that.

I'd like a pitcher like that for a number of reasons:
1. A rotation of Houck, Crochet, Crawford, Bello, Pivetta is better than a rotation of Houck, Crawford, Bello, Pivetta, Winckowski/Criswell, for the drive to the playoffs and for in the playoffs (with one of Crawford, Bello, Pivetta bumped to the pen)
2. Adds a lefty to an all right-handed rotation
3. Also builds for the future, with three more years of control at just the right time for the team's current window of contention.
 

Delicious Sponge

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Max Scherzer. I know he’s been hurt but he’s back now and by the deadline we’ll see if he’s healthy enough for a playoff run. He’s a FA at the end of the season so the only question is what to do with the pro rated $22M the Rangers owe on his contract and if you can get the Rangers (or Henry) to eat it.
 
I'm not sure why you're trying to use Chris Sale as a comp for a Crochet trade package. Crochet has had a very good first half in his first season starting. Sale had dominated the AL for several years. Having said that, I agree Crochet would be an excellent target and a legit #1-2. I've also seen a rumor for Tyler Anderson of the Angels. Lefty starter, would be the only Lefty, having a good year (leads AL pitchers in WAR per ESPN). He's pitched to a 2.62 ERA since May 1.
Tyler Anderson is a very divisive pitcher this year. bWAR loves him (4), fWAR not so much (1). The key difference is that bWAR is built around runs allowed while fWAR is built around FIP.

Tyler Anderson has a fantastic 2.48 ERA, but his xERA is 4.51, his FIP is 4.56 and his xFIP is 5.12.

His underlying metrics do not look good. K/9: 6.01, BB/9: 3.91. His BABIP is a career low (by far) .224, and his HR/FB is also low at 7.9%. His strand rate is unsustainable at 86.9%. His xWOBA against is 45 points higher than his actual wOBA against. His Hard Hit % and Barrel % are both up this year.

Maybe there is something weird going on under the hood that I don't understand, but everything that I am seeing points to Tyler Anderson being a very mid pitcher who has gotten lucky this year so far.
 

Sin Duda

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Tyler Anderson is a very divisive pitcher this year. bWAR loves him (4), fWAR not so much (1). The key difference is that bWAR is built around runs allowed while fWAR is built around FIP.

Tyler Anderson has a fantastic 2.48 ERA, but his xERA is 4.51, his FIP is 4.56 and his xFIP is 5.12.

His underlying metrics do not look good. K/9: 6.01, BB/9: 3.91. His BABIP is a career low (by far) .224, and his HR/FB is also low at 7.9%. His strand rate is unsustainable at 86.9%. His xWOBA against is 45 points higher than his actual wOBA against. His Hard Hit % and Barrel % are both up this year.

Maybe there is something weird going on under the hood that I don't understand, but everything that I am seeing points to Tyler Anderson being a very mid pitcher who has gotten lucky this year so far.
Yea, thanks for that rebuttal. I couldn't understand how he was the league leader in ESPN's WAR (bWAR) when his WHIP, Ks, BBs etc. Spoke to something less than top level. You've cleared it up for me.

I'm intrigued by simplicio's Kikuchi idea (also lefty) but maybe because I just love saying "Kikuchi".
 

nvalvo

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Who goes down and/or stops playing if Grissom comes up? All of his substitutes have outplayed him.
Sure, but we’ve just seen the worst 90 PA of his pro career, and the conjunction with injury is pretty obvious.

I think Valdez probably goes back down. He may also be part of a trade.
 

Daniel_Son

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Not sure if the Reds are going for it this year, but if they decide to sell at the deadline, how about Nick Martinez? Pretty middling 4.25 ERA this year, but looking under the hood, he's got a 2.92 xERA, doesn't walk many guys or give up hard contact, (97th percentile BB%, 95th percentile Hard-Hit %), and has a $12 million player option for next year. He's got SP and RP experience, and he was nails for San Diego in the '22 postseason.
 

nvalvo

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Do you think Tampa would trade us Zach Eflin?

1.5 seasons remaining at 3/$40m. He’d be expensive, and I don’t know if he’s available.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Add me to the chorus of those who think that Crochet would be the best addition. The price will be high, but at this point I'd be willing to include Anthony since we seem to be in pretty good shape with OFs already at the MLB level and other potential in the pipeline (Bleis, even Lugo). Will take more than Anthony, and I'd try to stay away from including Fitts or other SP prospects (although I might include Criswell in the package if that helps) - I assume the other pieces would probably come from the other MIs in the org (Valdez, Yorke, Paulino) and maybe someone like Jordan or Castro.
 

Cassvt2023

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Add me to the chorus of those who think that Crochet would be the best addition. The price will be high, but at this point I'd be willing to include Anthony since we seem to be in pretty good shape with OFs already at the MLB level and other potential in the pipeline (Bleis, even Lugo). Will take more than Anthony, and I'd try to stay away from including Fitts or other SP prospects (although I might include Criswell in the package if that helps) - I assume the other pieces would probably come from the other MIs in the org (Valdez, Yorke, Paulino) and maybe someone like Jordan or Castro.
The White Sox need so many different things. Why not propose Anthony, Valdez and Sandlin for Crochet? It is in between what some thought was too much to give when comparing to Sale deal, and others thought was too little by not including Anthony.
 

Rovin Romine

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The White Sox need so many different things. Why not propose Anthony, Valdez and Sandlin for Crochet? It is in between what some thought was too much to give when comparing to Sale deal, and others thought was too little by not including Anthony.
Crochet is in his first year as a full time starter but he's in arb already. He's a FA in 2028, so you'd be trading for 2.5 years of control.

He had TJS in 2021-22, and then was on the IL with a shoulder problem from June to September of last year. And now he's enjoying a few healthy months with a good run of starts.

I don't know why he's suddenly everyone's favorite binky, or why anyone would trade Anthony for him. He's basically Garret Whitlock of Chicago.
 

Cassvt2023

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Crochet is in his first year as a full time starter but he's in arb already. He's a FA in 2028, so you'd be trading for 2.5 years of control.

He had TJS in 2021-22, and then was on the IL with a shoulder problem from June to September of last year. And now he's enjoying a few healthy months with a good run of starts.

I don't know why he's suddenly everyone's favorite binky, or why anyone would trade Anthony for him. He's basically Garret Whitlock of Chicago.
I don't necessarily want to trade Anthony. But of the 3, he'd be the one I would. I think he is at least 2 years away. Crochet is dominating. He turned 25 just this week. He has TJ behind him, where these days guys seem to come back stronger. He is LH, which would be nice to feature. He is not repped by Boras. He has 5.6 WAR in 167 IP, with 215 K's and a 1.12 WHIP. If I said they should offer Fitts, Yorke, Lugo and a miL flyer, I'd be laughed off the board. Anthony appears to be a great prospect with a high ceiling, but he is still just a prospect.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't necessarily want to trade Anthony. But of the 3, he'd be the one I would. I think he is at least 2 years away. Crochet is dominating. He turned 25 just this week. He has TJ behind him, where these days guys seem to come back stronger. He is LH, which would be nice to feature. He is not repped by Boras. He has 5.6 WAR in 167 IP, with 215 K's and a 1.12 WHIP. If I said they should offer Fitts, Yorke, Lugo and a miL flyer, I'd be laughed off the board. Anthony appears to be a great prospect with a high ceiling, but he is still just a prospect.
The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
 

RedOctober3829

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Buying and selling at the same time? Didn't that same indecision just get Bloom fired? In terms of buying, ownership isn't all of a sudden going to approve doing anything approaching a blockbuster move to add big pieces. No rental pieces that have a good chunk of money left either, It would go against everything they've done for the last couple of years. If they do buy, it will be pieces at the margins that don't cost a lot of money or prospect capital.
 

Fishy1

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The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
This is all fair. I don't think packing off Roman Anthony for a guy having his best year ever by a huge margin would be optimal. I also kind of doubt he would cost us Roman Anthony, given the history you've spoken to.

Honestly, I halfway expect the Breslow regime to target someone quite unlike Crochet or Eflin -- someone who's not doing fantastic, whose pitch mix hasn't quite been optimized, who could maybe add a sweeper or tweak their slider, throw their fastball less, etc. And honestly, what they've managed to do with Houck, Kutter, Criswell, and Pivetta (and it feels like half a dozen bullpen guys) makes me quite trusting in their ability to target the right fellas.
 

TrotNixonRing

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Crochet will take one of the big three + more

I don’t think he’s worth one of the big three, just not enough track record to give up such an asset

ipso facto I do not want to trade for Crochet
 

Cassvt2023

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The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
These are all valid points and I have a bunch of respect for you and what you bring to the board. I'm concerned about every pitcher's arm these days, no matter who you are. It's a risk for sure. But Houck was a mediocre starter and a maybe bullpen arm before this year, and he has been pretty damn good. And he is just shy of 3 yrs older. And he is also due to fly past his high for IP this year. Sometimes these "bullpen guys" like Lugo and Lorenzen just need to be given a chance and have the right coaching/situation and they can unlock stuff. Honest question: Would you do Crochet for Anthony straight up if the White Sox called and offered it?
 

SouthernBoSox

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We will see. The problem with trading the upcoming Free Agents is that they are all very significant pieces to the current team with no obvious in place backfills. Here is the list

Kenley Jansen
Nick Pivetta
Chris Martin
Tyler O'Neill
Rob Refsnyder
Chase Anderson
Dominic Smith

Obviously, Dom Smith is a causality of Casas coming back. But outside that? Who are you trading there? The team needs another starter, not to move one. The team needs right handed power, not to move one. The team needs a strong bullpen. I'll be unbelievably disappointed if this team has a playoff spot at the deadline, and they try and thread the needle.
 
Not sure if the Reds are going for it this year, but if they decide to sell at the deadline, how about Nick Martinez? Pretty middling 4.25 ERA this year, but looking under the hood, he's got a 2.92 xERA, doesn't walk many guys or give up hard contact, (97th percentile BB%, 95th percentile Hard-Hit %), and has a $12 million player option for next year. He's got SP and RP experience, and he was nails for San Diego in the '22 postseason.
Nick Martinez is interesting and if he's available he shouldn't command too much of a premium. I agree that his performance is underrated. His FIP is very solid, and his ERA is inflated by a miserable strand rate this year. That said, Martinez has never consistently started and his max IP totals for the past several years has been ~110ish, which he is already halfway to reaching.

The Red Sox already have a bunch of effective starters whose ability to pitch deep into the season is questionable. The biggest area of need at SP is someone who can likely be counted on to not be innings limited.

The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
These are some very real concerns and should significantly impact Crochet's value. I'm pretty much with you on this one.
 

Rovin Romine

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Buying and selling at the same time? Didn't that same indecision just get Bloom fired? In terms of buying, ownership isn't all of a sudden going to approve doing anything approaching a blockbuster move to add big pieces. No rental pieces that have a good chunk of money left either, It would go against everything they've done for the last couple of years. If they do buy, it will be pieces at the margins that don't cost a lot of money or prospect capital.
It was more standing pat in '23. In July-Aug it was Hernandez for Robinson, MiL Johnson for Llovera, and MiL Blalock for Urias.

'22 was good: Diekman for McGuire, MiL Northcut for Pham, Vazquez for Abreu/Valdez, and Groome for Hosmer. A lot of nothing for at least some somethings.


Honestly, I halfway expect the Breslow regime to target someone quite unlike Crochet or Eflin -- someone who's not doing fantastic, whose pitch mix hasn't quite been optimized, who could maybe add a sweeper or tweak their slider, throw their fastball less, etc.
I think so as well.
 

Fishy1

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We will see. The problem with trading the upcoming Free Agents is that they are all very significant pieces to the current team with no obvious in place backfills. Here is the list

Kenley Jansen
Nick Pivetta
Chris Martin
Tyler O'Neill
Rob Refsnyder
Chase Anderson
Dominic Smith

Obviously, Dom Smith is a causality of Casas coming back. But outside that? Who are you trading there? The team needs another starter, not to move one. The team needs right handed power, not to move one. The team needs a strong bullpen. I'll be unbelievably disappointed if this team has a playoff spot at the deadline, and they try and thread the needle.
I could definitely see them moving one of the bullpen guys if Hendriks is back in time and Campbell rounds into shape. Booser is languishing down in AAA after being fantastic up here, for example.

But I don't think that's necessarily likely. Hendriks might not be ready at all, and someone else might go down. Such is the nature of pitching!

EDIT: I could also see them moving O'Neill if they either (a) trade for someone else to replace his bat or (b) someone in the minors forces the issue. But (a) would take a lot of finagling and (b) seems very, very unlikely. Lugo has struggled a bit in AAA and Anthony looks like he'll need a full season at AA and then another at AAA before he'll be ready.

Pivetta? I don't know. He could go on one of his runs and there's no universe in which I'd want the moving him, for example. Again unless there's someone else coming in to take his spot. I'm of a mind that I'm fine with the #5 starter being Winck or Criswell if we upgrade Pivetta.

Long-winded way of saying that you can "buy" and "sell" if you're upgrading someone's spot.
 
Last edited:

joe dokes

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We will see. The problem with trading the upcoming Free Agents is that they are all very significant pieces to the current team with no obvious in place backfills. Here is the list

Kenley Jansen
Nick Pivetta
Chris Martin
Tyler O'Neill
Rob Refsnyder
Chase Anderson
Dominic Smith

Obviously, Dom Smith is a causality of Casas coming back. But outside that? Who are you trading there? The team needs another starter, not to move one. The team needs right handed power, not to move one. The team needs a strong bullpen. I'll be unbelievably disappointed if this team has a playoff spot at the deadline, and they try and thread the needle.
I'm OK with moving Jansen, because I think he'll deliver an out-sized return.
I dont think Anderson will get much of a return, but he's expendable.

Buying and selling at the same time? Didn't that same indecision just get Bloom fired?
I dont think indecision got him fired. We'll never know, but I think it was his mis-evaluation of the quality of the major league club at the deadline two years running; combined with holding out for too much of a return for the likes of Sale and Verdugo (*if* the reports are true). Doing little or nothing is a decision.
 

Rovin Romine

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Honest question: Would you do Crochet for Anthony straight up if the White Sox called and offered it?
I don't think so. Mostly just due to the injury volatility. They'd probably want close-to-MLB pitching back and we have basically Fitts and some relievers.

That's really the issue with trading out of the current farm I think. We want to consider organizational scarcity - who does the club transition to or bring up in a couple of years? I think the club is going to "over-value" players on those grounds as well as absolute talent. We have very little starting pitching. So I think MBTA+Fitts are likely no-gos in any trade. Possibly Sandlin as well with the injury to Perales (TJS).

But you never know - Breslow might do something big.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Do you think Tampa would trade us Zach Eflin?

1.5 seasons remaining at 3/$40m. He’d be expensive, and I don’t know if he’s available.
If Tampa continues to underperform for the next few weeks, they could definitely become sellers and I like the Eflin suggestion. How about Randy Arozarena? He's expensive, with two more years of arbitration, and after a terrible April and May has put up very good numbers in June, but he's stats for the year look bad due to the very poor start.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I'm OK with moving Jansen, because I think he'll deliver an out-sized return.
I dont think Anderson will get much of a return, but he's expendable.


I dont think indecision got him fired. We'll never know, but I think it was his mis-evaluation of the quality of the major league club at the deadline two years running; combined with holding out for too much of a return for the likes of Sale and Verdugo (*if* the reports are true). Doing little or nothing is a decision.
Why do you think this? He's an expensive 36 year old rental reliever with an xERA of 3.22 and xFIP of 3.97. Jansen has been good this year but his numbers are masked by the fact he hasn't given up a home run.
 

YTF

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Casas plus Hendriks is going to serve as a very substantial in house boost.
I really like Hendricks, but personally I'm pumping the brakes when it comes to his return and potential contribution. A fair number of guys come back from TJ surgery and thrive, but it's extremely rare that it happens immediately upon return. I don't expect a huge boost when he comes back.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
The bolded is true for every potential trade, right? It should go without saying here that for any proposed trade the FO will do their due diligence on medicals, etc.

But I'm curious what to you is the right package? You've said you wouldn't go Anthony. What would you do?

I'm ok with using Fitts, because I see Crochet as an upgrade to Fitts for 3.5 years (he's not FA until after '27). I'm ok with using Anthony because I think we have enough OF upside with Duran, Rafaela and Abreu, plus Campbell, maybe Lugo, maybe Yorke, and Bleis down the line. I'd throw in another lower minors pitching prospect because TINSTAAPP. I'd do the whole deal because it feels like this crew could make a run this year AS IS, never mind with a high-end starter addition. And I think the farm is strong enough now to absorb the loss and help the MLB team. That's what the farm is for, right? To make the MLB team better?

Bottom line, Crochet is very likely to be traded. If it ends up the right color Sox get him, even if means using Anthony and Fitts, I'm going to be ok with it.
 

Rovin Romine

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The bolded is true for every potential trade, right? It should go without saying here that for any proposed trade the FO will do their due diligence on medicals, etc.

But I'm curious what to you is the right package? You've said you wouldn't go Anthony. What would you do?

I'm ok with using Fitts, because I see Crochet as an upgrade to Fitts for 3.5 years (he's not FA until after '27). I'm ok with using Anthony because I think we have enough OF upside with Duran, Rafaela and Abreu, plus Campbell, maybe Lugo, maybe Yorke, and Bleis down the line. I'd throw in another lower minors pitching prospect because TINSTAAPP. I'd do the whole deal because it feels like this crew could make a run this year AS IS, never mind with a high-end starter addition. And I think the farm is strong enough now to absorb the loss and help the MLB team. That's what the farm is for, right? To make the MLB team better?

Bottom line, Crochet is very likely to be traded. If it ends up the right color Sox get him, even if means using Anthony and Fitts, I'm going to be ok with it.
Honestly, I don't really spend a lot of thought-time on specific trade scenarios. As opposed to looking at the big picture and guessing what the club needs or where it has a surplus.

But assuming they wanted Fitts and Anthony? No. I wouldn't do that.

Crochet is a FA after the 2026 season, going into the 2027 season. He's not the guy to trade your #1 prospect for, given his health concerns and the relatively short window of control. Let alone your #1 prospect plus your current best/nearest SP prospect.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We will see. The problem with trading the upcoming Free Agents is that they are all very significant pieces to the current team with no obvious in place backfills. Here is the list

Kenley Jansen
Nick Pivetta
Chris Martin
Tyler O'Neill
Rob Refsnyder
Chase Anderson
Dominic Smith

Obviously, Dom Smith is a causality of Casas coming back. But outside that? Who are you trading there? The team needs another starter, not to move one. The team needs right handed power, not to move one. The team needs a strong bullpen. I'll be unbelievably disappointed if this team has a playoff spot at the deadline, and they try and thread the needle.
I don't think that the players the Sox could trade away at the deadline are necessarily limited to veterans on short/expiring deals. It could be they flip one of their hot young players instead. They traded Jose Iglesias in 2013 to upgrade the pitching staff. He was only hitting .330/.376/.409 at the time of the deal and was the best of the flotsom they were playing at 3B (Middlebrooks was floundering then got hurt for a bit). Maybe the 2024 version of that is Hamilton? Or Valdez? I could see moving one of their middle infielders to shore up another part of the roster AND to free up a bit of a logjam. I mean, if Grissom gets healthy and starts hitting and Valdez keeps hitting like he has and Hamilton keeps hitting like he has and Romy stays healthy keeps hitting like he has, something's got to give. And like in 2013 when they had Xander waiting in the wings, they've got plenty of prospect options (Mayer, Yorke, etc) to back fill losing a player who could have been a part of things for the next 5-6 years.


I just don't buy the notion that buying and selling at the deadline is some kind of middle ground indecisiveness. They can give up pieces to gain pieces and still make a strong push for the post-season.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
33,434
Why do you think this? He's an expensive 36 year old rental reliever with an xERA of 3.22 and xFIP of 3.97. Jansen has been good this year but his numbers are masked by the fact he hasn't given up a home run.
I should start by saying I agree with you. But, while GMs may have evolved more than I'm giving them credit for, I still think that a "proven closer" that's got a WHIP around 1, is 15-16 in save opps, and quite recently had a 6-out save, a 4-out save and pitched several days in a row is going to give a GM with a short bullpen big eyes.
 

Sox Pride

New Member
Nov 25, 2005
259
The Triangle
As to both "selling" and "buying" - this piece by Matt Gross at OTM points out that the Sox have a LOT of Rule 5 eligible talent coming up at the end of the year.
It would behoove Craig to consolidate some of this excess into a quality piece or two if we can.

I feel like the Sox probably _should_ both add and subtract at the deadline. I don't think we should mortgage one of the big three for just this year. Hopefully this year isn't just a one-off and we're in the middle of building a pipeline to a machine.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
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I don't think that the players the Sox could trade away at the deadline are necessarily limited to veterans on short/expiring deals. It could be they flip one of their hot young players instead. They traded Jose Iglesias in 2013 to upgrade the pitching staff. He was only hitting .330/.376/.409 at the time of the deal and was the best of the flotsom they were playing at 3B (Middlebrooks was floundering then got hurt for a bit). Maybe the 2024 version of that is Hamilton? Or Valdez? I could see moving one of their middle infielders to shore up another part of the roster AND to free up a bit of a logjam. I mean, if Grissom gets healthy and starts hitting and Valdez keeps hitting like he has and Hamilton keeps hitting like he has and Romy stays healthy keeps hitting like he has, something's got to give. And like in 2013 when they had Xander waiting in the wings, they've got plenty of prospect options (Mayer, Yorke, etc) to back fill losing a player who could have been a part of things for the next 5-6 years.


I just don't buy the notion that buying and selling at the deadline is some kind of middle ground indecisiveness. They can give up pieces to gain pieces and still make a strong push for the post-season.
That's an interesting trade to revisit - Montas was in it as well:

Peavy was a strictly average starter (100 ERA+).

At the time of the trade the Sox were tied with TBR for the AL east lead (and best record in the AL.) Buchholz went down on 6/18 with a neck issue, ending a brilliant run (1.71 ERA in 12 starts). Then we trotted out Aceves, Webster, and Workman (effective but then needed in the pen) before making the trade to shore up the team.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Jul 18, 2005
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The shoulder does not concern you? He missed half the season last year because of it. So the arm does not have a lot of miles on it, but it's already breaking down.

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher when healthy. He is. I just don't know why people are assuming he'll be a reliable starter in the second half, much less next year. (He's already blown way past his highest IP totals - ever.)

Personally, I'd trade for him if the package was right. But all this seems pretty high.
I wasn't aware of Crochet's shoulder problems when I jumped on the bandwagon, so I agree with you that he's probably not worth giving up Anthony for (and certainly not Anthony plus Fitts).

I do think that Anthony is the most expendable of our major assets, but maybe there's not a trade out there that makes sense.

I also think SP is our area of greatest need, so if the cost and risk with Crochet is too high, and Lorenzen is now hurt, then maybe we just hope that Breslow can find the diamond in the rough that Bailey can polish into a gem.
 

ShaneTrot

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Nov 17, 2002
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As to both "selling" and "buying" - this piece by Matt Gross at OTM points out that the Sox have a LOT of Rule 5 eligible talent coming up at the end of the year.
It would behoove Craig to consolidate some of this excess into a quality piece or two if we can.

I feel like the Sox probably _should_ both add and subtract at the deadline. I don't think we should mortgage one of the big three for just this year. Hopefully this year isn't just a one-off and we're in the middle of building a pipeline to a machine.
We always obsess about the bottom spots on the roster. The Sox lost Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft, he has been good for the Cardinals. They picked up Slaten, he has been just as good Fernandez. Drohan was returned. I am not going to lose any sleep if they lose Jordan, Yorke, Dobbins, etc. Of that list of guys, Fitts looks like the only guy who 100% should be added to the 40 man.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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We always obsess about the bottom spots on the roster. The Sox lost Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft, he has been good for the Cardinals. They picked up Slaten, he has been just as good Fernandez. Drohan was returned. I am not going to lose any sleep if they lose Jordan, Yorke, Dobbins, etc. Of that list of guys, Fitts looks like the only guy who 100% should be added to the 40 man.
If it's a choice between trading one of those guys for something useful or losing them in the Rule 5 draft, why would you not choose the former?
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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If it's a choice between trading one of those guys for something useful or losing them in the Rule 5 draft, why would you not choose the former?
I think that’s true, but I also think it’s true that fringe 40 man guys have really, really little trade value. This isn’t the best example because of how these guys developed, but we got both Abreu and Valdez, who both were instantly on our top 30, for Christian Vazquez, who didn’t even end up playing full time for Houston.
 
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