Who to buy at the trade deadline?

[nvalvo]

We have a thread about potential deadline sales.

But who — either player profiles or particular players — should we be aiming to acquire?

I will go first. I want to see us acquire the best controllable RH bat we can, at basically any position. Some of these would be admittedly tough to make happen.

• I think my first target would be Orioles AAA infielder Coby Mayo. Mayo is a RHH corner infielder with considerable power, who is crushing AAA. .290/.360/.600 line. From a 22 year old.
  • This is... a stretch — Mayo is basically right around Marcelo Mayer in the rankings — so I would not be surprised if the Orioles just refuse to contemplate moving him. But with Mountcastle, Hjerstad, O'Hearn, and Westburg all sharing his defensive positions, they're going to be moving somebody from that group at some point, and they should be gunning for a title.
  • If we can make it happen, we should move mountains to do so. He fits our timeline and our roster very well, as RHH complement to our LHH at DH, 1B, and 3B.
  • He has a broken rib right now, but unlike Casas, he sustained his falling into the dugout pursuing a foul popup, and I suspect this makes them less likely to promote him over Mountcastle for the stretch run this season.
  • The Orioles have a remarkable roster, but if there's a weakness, it's their bullpen, which has coughed up a bunch of games. They also have some scuffling outfielders. I would offer them Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill. Seriously: everything that isn't nailed down.

I'll add more. Who are your targets?

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I like the optimism. I was hoping for 2 out of 3 from TB and assumed 1. Sweeping them felt good.

I'm all for trading Jansen and Martin, but wouldn't mind trying to extend O'Neill, if possible. I'd be looking more for whatever prospects we can get for those 2, but that's because I don't have faith in us getting past the 1st round of the Wild Card at this point. A healthy Casas coming back improves the lineup significantly and maybe we can catch lighting in a bottle with someone.

I need the optimism right now, so I hope this thread doesn't become a train wreck of negativity.

 

[dynomite]

Love this thread. Sox today are half a game out of the 3rd Wild Card with the 5th best run differential in the AL and are underperforming their pythag by 3 games. And with Casas coming back (fingers crossed) in a month, it's easy to make the case for optimism.

Doesn't feel at the moment like this will be as much of a blockbuster trade deadline as some of the recent ones have been, with the addition of the 3rd Wild Card and the Astros suddenly looking competent. But lots of games to be played between now and late July, obviously.

Here's two articles about the top players who might be moved at the deadline:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-potential-sellers-2024

The underperforming Angels have a number of players with expiring contracts – infielder Brandon Drury ($8.5 million) and relievers Matt Moore ($9 million), Carlos Estévez ($6.75 million), Luis García ($4.25 million), José Cisnero ($1.75 million) and Adam Cimber ($1.65 million) – and while the relievers figure to be the only ones that could bring back decent returns, even those won’t be huge.

GM Perry Minasian’s best trade chips might be players with club control beyond 2024, with lefty starter Tyler Anderson (earning $13 million in 2024 and 2025) and versatile infielder Luis Rengifo (arbitration-eligible for the final time next winter) leading that group. Left-hander Patrick Sandoval and outfielder Taylor Ward are each under control through 2026, making them interesting candidates, as well.

On the Marlins, the two most intriguing candidates are impending free-agent closer Tanner Scott (earning $5.7 million this season) and starter Jesús Luzardo, who is making $5.5 million in 2024 and is arbitration-eligible for two more years. Both pitchers should bring back strong returns for the Marlins, who will have Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez return in 2025.

Switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell -- who has been traded in each of the past two summers -- will be a free agent after the season and could help a team looking for power. Tim Anderson is the club’s only other impending free agent, though it’s tough to see Miami getting anything in return for the struggling infielder.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-executives-speculate-2024-trade-deadline-candidates

We recently posed the following question to two dozen front-office executives: Who will be the biggest name moved by the Trade Deadline? Given the small sample size of the current season, it was not surprising that the answers varied quite a bit.
Alex Bregman, Astros (5 votes)
Pete Alonso, Mets (3 votes)
Randy Arozarena, Rays (2 votes)
Luis Arraez, Marlins (2 votes) *
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox (2 votes)
Willy Adames, Brewers (1 vote)
Dylan Cease, Padres (1 vote)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins (1 vote)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (1 vote)
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (1 vote)
Jesús Luzardo, Marlins (1 vote)
Mason Miller, Athletics (1 vote)
Brady Singer, Royals (1 vote)
Framber Valdez, Astros (1 vote)
Justin Verlander, Astros (1 vote)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

We have a thread about potential deadline sales.

But who — either player profiles or particular players — should we be aiming to acquire?

I will go first. I want to see us acquire the best controllable RH bat we can, at basically any position. Some of these would be admittedly tough to make happen.

• I think my first target would be Orioles AAA infielder Coby Mayo. Mayo is a RHH corner infielder with considerable power, who is crushing AAA. .290/.360/.600 line. From a 22 year old.
  • This is... a stretch — Mayo is basically right around Marcelo Mayer in the rankings — so I would not be surprised if the Orioles just refuse to contemplate moving him. But with Mountcastle, Hjerstad, O'Hearn, and Westburg all sharing his defensive positions, they're going to be moving somebody from that group at some point, and they should be gunning for a title.
  • If we can make it happen, we should move mountains to do so. He fits our timeline and our roster very well, as RHH complement to our LHH at DH, 1B, and 3B.
  • He has a broken rib right now, but unlike Casas, he sustained his falling into the dugout pursuing a foul popup, and I suspect this makes them less likely to promote him over Mountcastle for the stretch run this season.
  • The Orioles have a remarkable roster, but if there's a weakness, it's their bullpen, which has coughed up a bunch of games. They also have some scuffling outfielders. I would offer them Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill. Seriously: everything that isn't nailed down.

I'll add more. Who are your targets?

I'm actually optimistic about the team especially if they can get Casas and Yoshida back. Martin is still too good to trade if they're actually "buying" but I'd still look to deal Jansen along with some/a lot of the mL depth that are going to be clogging up the 40-man roster soon. The Sox need to do something with that surplus. I don't really pay much attention to other teams so I can't comment, but obviously, the Crawford, Houck, Bello trio will be monitored for their innings so I think they need a veteran starter. Maybe someone who's been underperforming on an expiring contract but I don't see how trading Jensen would be compatible. Any team looking at Jensen would be trying to win. Perhaps Jensen gets picked up and a 3rd team involves itself with Sox 40-man crunch prospects? Those are hard to pull off but I don't see anyone dealing away if the Sox really are buying. They'd need O'Neill and Martin. Yoshida too?

 

[grimshaw]

Normally I'd be on board trying to acquire a cost controlled position player, but they are kind of stuck at this point in terms of where to upgrade.

-1b and 3b are all set for the foreseeable future
-SS and 2b are basically between Story, Mayer, (Rafaela) and Grissom. If Grissom can't play, then maybe they go for a sure thing 2b and see what happens between the other three.
-Catcher is fine in the short and long term
-The outfield doesn't need a short term upgrade and long term looks good if Anthony works out.
-That basically leaves DH and a bad contract.

They would basically have to aim really big for a superstar by moving one of the positions that is cheap and better than average along with prospects. Who that would be? No idea.

If they feel they can compete for a spot, I'd go for the best available rental starter which seems like the way to go when you have roster crunches. Maybe a straightened out Jack Flaherty? Cost controlled seems prospect prohibitive and risky.

TL/DR - Jack Flaherty. Relatively low risk, and probably not farm gutting.

 

[moondog80]

I like the optimism. I was hoping for 2 out of 3 from TB and assumed 1. Sweeping them felt good.

I'm all for trading Jansen and Martin, but wouldn't mind trying to extend O'Neill, if possible. I'd be looking more for whatever prospects we can get for those 2, but that's because I don't have faith in us getting past the 1st round of the Wild Card at this point. A healthy Casas coming back improves the lineup significantly and maybe we can catch lighting in a bottle with someone.

I need the optimism right now, so I hope this thread doesn't become a train wreck of negativity.

With Duran and Abreu seemingly for real, Rafaella signed long term, and Anthony and Bleis on the horizon, I can't see betting on O'Neill given his past, especially given that he's a Boras guy and thus will want to take full advantage of the timing of his resurgence (as he should). Either trade him for whatever you can get or keep him, go for the WC, and QO him. Boras is almost certainly taking him to FA so the opportunity to sign him will be there whether or not he finishes the season in a Sox uniform.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I like the optimism, but I wouldn’t just assume that ownership is going to be willing to add money now when they weren’t willing to add money in the winter. I think any trade scenario has to factor in money going out along with what is coming back.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I prefer to be optimistic, so I'll play:

For starter, adore the Mayo idea @nvalvo. I don't think it'll happen, but that's exactly the kind of move I'd like to see them make (I called it a "sell") but if we want to call it a "buying for the future" I can get on board with that. Mayo would certainly be a target for me (and if Baltimore said "no, he's off the table" then I'd at least ask on Westburg). Like you said, they're going to have to monetize some of them at some point, and if you can add enough pieces that fill holes, then at some point, most teams will trade in the division. I also agree that you'd have to find teams that have holes "in the right places" so to speak, so...

Guys I'd target that could maaaaaaybe be had if you fill enough holes at the MLB level that I'd be targeting - Mayo (or Westburg) from Baltimore; Andy Pages or Miguel Vargas from LAD; James Triantos or Matt Shaw from ChC.


If the Sox are looking at rentals, two names I'd like to see that would a) fill holes; b) carry some weight in the clubhouse as in - hey, we're actually trying and c) could be reasonably acquired at least as we stand here in the end of May.

Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong (whom I've been asking for since Story got injured). Both are free agents at the end of the year; both are old; both are on bad teams going nowhere. If the Red Sox look like playoff contenders in July, those are two names I'd be interested in and couldn't cost all that much to acquire.

 

[chrisfont9]

Considering half this thread is about selling, I'm not sure it makes sense for it to be separate from the other one.

I'm for them buying a bat and RP, but only if it's pretty painless. @grimshaw lays out the limited areas that are ripe for upgrades. I'd be happiest if they worked on extending Pivetta and Cora.

 

[TomRicardo]

Normally I'd be on board trying to acquire a cost controlled position player, but they are kind of stuck at this point in terms of where to upgrade.

-1b and 3b are all set for the foreseeable future
-SS and 2b are basically between Story, Mayer, (Rafaela) and Grissom. If Grissom can't play, then maybe they go for a sure thing 2b and see what happens between the other three.
-Catcher is fine in the short and long term
-The outfield doesn't need a short term upgrade and long term looks good if Anthony works out.
-That basically leaves DH and a bad contract.

They would basically have to aim really big for a superstar by moving one of the positions that is cheap and better than average along with prospects. Who that would be? No idea.

If they feel they can compete for a spot, I'd go for the best available rental starter which seems like the way to go when you have roster crunches. Maybe a straightened out Jack Flaherty? Cost controlled seems prospect prohibitive and risky.

TL/DR - Jack Flaherty. Relatively low risk, and probably not farm gutting.

There is definitely a position for RHH power bat for Corner Infielder with 500 ABs if you bounce Yoshida. Mayo is what you are looking for. Hell Blaze Jordan or even Nick Yorke could be that guy.

Rafaela being a super sub gives you a lot of options here especially if you get rid of Yoshida. You can bring in a power corner OF bat and/or RHH Corner IF. Looking for blocked prospects like Grissom and Mayo for relief makes a ton of sense. I would also make Pivetta available.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

By the trade deadline I hope they have a better idea of what they have or don't have for MIs. If neither Rafaela or Grissom is hitting yet, it could be worth picking up a starter level 2B even as a rental. Casas, Yoshida, and a league average bat at 2nd would be a world of difference.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Hate to be a negative person (avoiding the negative person idiom here) but these kinds of threads always assume only people coming back from injury. Isn’t it just as likely that we get just as many new players injured as players coming back? I bet Breslow et al have to think that way when considering whether to try to “enrich” the team or not, especially with Henry turned into “Mr. Burns” in charge of the money.

 

[BaseballJones]

We have a thread about potential deadline sales.

But who — either player profiles or particular players — should we be aiming to acquire?

I will go first. I want to see us acquire the best controllable RH bat we can, at basically any position. Some of these would be admittedly tough to make happen.

• I think my first target would be Orioles AAA infielder Coby Mayo. Mayo is a RHH corner infielder with considerable power, who is crushing AAA. .290/.360/.600 line. From a 22 year old.
  • This is... a stretch — Mayo is basically right around Marcelo Mayer in the rankings — so I would not be surprised if the Orioles just refuse to contemplate moving him. But with Mountcastle, Hjerstad, O'Hearn, and Westburg all sharing his defensive positions, they're going to be moving somebody from that group at some point, and they should be gunning for a title.
  • If we can make it happen, we should move mountains to do so. He fits our timeline and our roster very well, as RHH complement to our LHH at DH, 1B, and 3B.
  • He has a broken rib right now, but unlike Casas, he sustained his falling into the dugout pursuing a foul popup, and I suspect this makes them less likely to promote him over Mountcastle for the stretch run this season.
  • The Orioles have a remarkable roster, but if there's a weakness, it's their bullpen, which has coughed up a bunch of games. They also have some scuffling outfielders. I would offer them Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill. Seriously: everything that isn't nailed down.

I'll add more. Who are your targets?

I highly doubt this would ever happen, but I love this idea. It’s trading for their biggest area of need, but not a short term solution. Mayo would be there, long-term right handed power hitting outfielder and would cost virtually nothing the first few years. I’d happily give up the package you suggest to acquire him. I think this is not a buy for this season king of deal.

 

[Fishy1]

Hate to be a negative person (avoiding the negative person idiom here) but these kinds of threads always assume only people coming back from injury. Isn’t it just as likely that we get just as many new players injured as players coming back? I bet Breslow et al have to think that way when considering whether to try to “enrich” the team or not, especially with Henry turned into “Mr. Burns” in charge of the money.

Breslow absolutely does not bring his team together at the trade deadline and say "well, everyone's pretty healthy now, and we might be contenders, but it's possible that Tyler O'Neill's leg might have terrible hamstring issues in the second half of the season, so we might as well give up trying to upgrade this team." He comes to the table and says "what's the best possible version of this team if things go well, what is the likelihood of that, and how can we best make that happen with either in-house changes or trade acquisitions?"

Furthermore, I think people generally operate ceteris paribus on this in these kinds of threads. We're assuming that they get Casas back and Yoshida back and that at the deadline there's no further devastating injuries. Injuries are to a certain extent out of a team's control. You try to avoid having players who are too injury prone, obviously, but freak stuff happens, arms fall off, etc. You can't plan for that. You just try to make each position as good as you can.

And I think, if you're a GM, you definitely don't say, "Casas had a weird devastating injury in the first half of the season and so did Story, so we're due for two more weird, devastating injuries in the second half of the season"-- that doesn't make sense. That's not how probability or injuries or planning in baseball work. Yes, you make sure you have depth and you have some back-up plans, but you have to hope guys are healthy. Every team does the same thing. There's nothing else you can do.

Like yeah, it's possible Devers will go down, or Duran and Abreu will both be sucked down into a sinkhole that opens up in Fenway's Bermuda Triangle... It's also possible that the team is relatively healthy through the rest of the season, and we don't see anything else season-ending. A baseball team in the Wild Card hunt, with a great run differential and a great pitching staff, should look to add.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Breslow absolutely does not bring his team together at the trade deadline and say "well, everyone's pretty healthy now, and we might be contenders, but it's possible that Tyler O'Neill's leg might have terrible hamstring issues in the second half of the season, so we might as well give up trying to upgrade this team." He comes to the table and says "what's the best possible version of this team if things go well, what is the likelihood of that, and how can we best make that happen with either in-house changes or trade acquisitions?"

Furthermore, I think people generally operate ceteris paribus on this in these kinds of threads. We're assuming that they get Casas back and Yoshida back and that at the deadline there's no further devastating injuries. Injuries are to a certain extent out of a team's control. You try to avoid having players who are too injury prone, obviously, but freak stuff happens, arms fall off, etc. You can't plan for that. You just try to make each position as good as you can.

And I think, if you're a GM, you definitely don't say, "Casas had a weird devastating injury in the first half of the season and so did Story, so we're due for two more weird, devastating injuries in the second half of the season"-- that doesn't make sense. That's not how probability or injuries or planning in baseball work. Yes, you make sure you have depth and you have some back-up plans, but you have to hope guys are healthy. Every team does the same thing. There's nothing else you can do.

Like yeah, it's possible Devers will go down, or Duran and Abreu will both be sucked down into a sinkhole that opens up in Fenway's Bermuda Triangle... It's also possible that the team is relatively healthy through the rest of the season, and we don't see anything else season-ending. A baseball team in the Wild Card hunt, with a great run differential and a great pitching staff, should look to add.

Well, the Sox did next to nothing last year at the deadline, while being a handful of games over .500. Same ownership group.

 

[chrisfont9]

Breslow absolutely does not bring his team together at the trade deadline and say "well, everyone's pretty healthy now, and we might be contenders, but it's possible that Tyler O'Neill's leg might have terrible hamstring issues in the second half of the season, so we might as well give up trying to upgrade this team." He comes to the table and says "what's the best possible version of this team if things go well, what is the likelihood of that, and how can we best make that happen with either in-house changes or trade acquisitions?"

Furthermore, I think people generally operate ceteris paribus on this in these kinds of threads. We're assuming that they get Casas back and Yoshida back and that at the deadline there's no further devastating injuries. Injuries are to a certain extent out of a team's control. You try to avoid having players who are too injury prone, obviously, but freak stuff happens, arms fall off, etc. You can't plan for that. You just try to make each position as good as you can.

And I think, if you're a GM, you definitely don't say, "Casas had a weird devastating injury in the first half of the season and so did Story, so we're due for two more weird, devastating injuries in the second half of the season"-- that doesn't make sense. That's not how probability or injuries or planning in baseball work. Yes, you make sure you have depth and you have some back-up plans, but you have to hope guys are healthy. Every team does the same thing. There's nothing else you can do.

Like yeah, it's possible Devers will go down, or Duran and Abreu will both be sucked down into a sinkhole that opens up in Fenway's Bermuda Triangle... It's also possible that the team is relatively healthy through the rest of the season, and we don't see anything else season-ending. A baseball team in the Wild Card hunt, with a great run differential and a great pitching staff, should look to add.

I guess Al's point is maybe more clearly addressed by teams just always making sure they have some versatility in the IF and OF, and why everyone loves drafting "shortstops." I also wonder if we are all a little spooked after multiple years of having injuries piling up in the middle IF defense to the point where our 7th option is now the starting shortstop. You can't plan for that in a 40-man roster.

 

[chrisfont9]

Well, the Sox did next to nothing last year at the deadline, while being a handful of games over .500. Same ownership group.

It'd be nice to know what deals were on the table. Like "our OK SS for Jarren Duran"? They neglected to move a couple guys they should have sold on, but that's less ownership and more Bloom messing with his peers.

 

[simplicio]

Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong (whom I've been asking for since Story got injured). Both are free agents at the end of the year; both are old; both are on bad teams going nowhere. If the Red Sox look like playoff contenders in July, those are two names I'd be interested in and couldn't cost all that much to acquire.

I don't see that those two are offering anything beyond what we already have from Cooper and Romy respectively, let alone a returning Casas.

 

[Fishy1]

Well, the Sox did next to nothing last year at the deadline, while being a handful of games over .500. Same ownership group.

That was an outlier, though, wasn't it? There were deals in every season leading up to this one. The Vasquez deal was upsetting to a lot of people, but I don't think the Sox miss him at all. Abreu is way outplaying him. And if I remember correctly there were also some rumblings that the ownership was unhappy that he did nothing. I could be wrong on that though.

You're right in the sense that they were expecting to get a bunch of people back, and for that to improve the team. But Story was horrible on offense, Sale was pretty bad, and they lost Duran and Casas for the rest of the season. There may be more I'm forgetting. Anyways, just because that happened last year doesn't mean it will happen this year.

What I'm getting at is that there's no guarantees here, but you don't assume, as a GM, that you're going to have catastrophic injuries to two of your best players, and look to fill those holes, or give up. You try to add where you have needs and hope your players stay healthy.

 

[YTF]

We have a thread about potential deadline sales.

But who — either player profiles or particular players — should we be aiming to acquire?

I will go first. I want to see us acquire the best controllable RH bat we can, at basically any position. Some of these would be admittedly tough to make happen.

• I think my first target would be Orioles AAA infielder Coby Mayo. Mayo is a RHH corner infielder with considerable power, who is crushing AAA. .290/.360/.600 line. From a 22 year old.
  • This is... a stretch — Mayo is basically right around Marcelo Mayer in the rankings — so I would not be surprised if the Orioles just refuse to contemplate moving him. But with Mountcastle, Hjerstad, O'Hearn, and Westburg all sharing his defensive positions, they're going to be moving somebody from that group at some point, and they should be gunning for a title.
  • If we can make it happen, we should move mountains to do so. He fits our timeline and our roster very well, as RHH complement to our LHH at DH, 1B, and 3B.
  • He has a broken rib right now, but unlike Casas, he sustained his falling into the dugout pursuing a foul popup, and I suspect this makes them less likely to promote him over Mountcastle for the stretch run this season.
  • The Orioles have a remarkable roster, but if there's a weakness, it's their bullpen, which has coughed up a bunch of games. They also have some scuffling outfielders. I would offer them Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O'Neill. Seriously: everything that isn't nailed down.

I'll add more. Who are your targets?

How is Mayo defensively at 3rd? If he's a guy that you want to target I think that is going to have to be a big consideration.

 

[dynomite]

If they feel they can compete for a spot, I'd go for the best available rental starter which seems like the way to go when you have roster crunches. Maybe a straightened out Jack Flaherty? Cost controlled seems prospect prohibitive and risky.

TL/DR - Jack Flaherty. Relatively low risk, and probably not farm gutting.

Good post. That all sounds right to me.

I'm interested in RHH Brandon Drury, 1B/2B/OF? In the last year of a 2 year/$17M deal and playing terribly on the Angels, he'd probably come very cheap. I'm willing to gamble that (barring some undisclosed injury) in the 2nd half he outperforms Dom Smith/Garrett Cooper/etc. and more closely resembles the guy who hit 26 & 28 HR in the last two seasons with OPSs of .803 and .813. He hasn't played OF since '21, but he can play 1B, 2B, and 3B, and he played a few games in both LF and RF for the Mets in 2021.

And more pie in the sky, I'd like to hear what folks think of LHP Jesus Luzardo, who's one of the most likely "bigger" names to be moved in July.

At 26 and arb eligible through 2026, Luzardo is a former top pitching prospect in the sport who throws upper 90s with multiple above average secondary pitches (and to the extent this matters, is a LHP unlike anyone else in the current rotation). 324 IP with a 3.58 ERA (122 ERA+, 10.2 K/9) since the start of '22.

The problem with Luzardo would be a) trusting he's healthy, and b) the cost, of course. With Mayer/Teel/Anthony off limits, what kind of package would the (perennially) rebuilding Marlins be willing to accept?

 

[Sin Duda]

Since he was mentioned in the MLB article, boy I'm glad we didn't sign Anaheim 2B Brandon Drury. His line is .173/.230/.240/.470, OPS+ of 34, and -.9 WAR. Mercy!

Haha, I was looking at the same guy, dynamite, and came to the exact opposite conclusion!

 

[dynomite]

Since he was mentioned in the MLB article, boy I'm glad we didn't sign Anaheim 2B Brandon Drury. His line is .173/.230/.240/.470, OPS+ of 34, and -.9 WAR. Mercy!

Haha, I was looking at the same guy, dynamite, and came to the exact opposite conclusion!

Hahaha that's what makes for horse racing, I guess!

You could be right, and I'm certainly glad we didn't give him 2 years, $17M! Still, he isn't striking out that much (17% vs. 22% for his career), his average backed by a ~.200 BABIP seems unlucky (statcast xBA is .244 and xSLG is .370), and other than a much lower launch angle I'm not seeing a ton of differences in his approach?

And one of the biggest factors that makes me like Drury is that this would be an extreme buy low -- especially now that he's on the IL with a hamstring strain, he's probably close to a DFA candidate for an Angels team going nowhere.

 

[donutogre]

I get that the Orioles could absolutely be in GFIN mode, and also respect the fact that they have a potential roster crunch at Mayo's position. But, why the hell would they trade him to the Sox for the likes of Jansen and Martin? Obviously we know that any pitcher can blow up at any time, but I count at least three very good relievers in their pen, and I don't count Kimbrel among them. (Though his WHIP is still quite respectable.)

Mayo feels so much more valuable than much of what Boston could reasonably offer, and if they wanted to trade away a prospect like that I have to imagine they could get a lot more. Happy to be proven wrong, but that feels like wishcasting to me.

 

[jon abbey]

I get that the Orioles could absolutely be in GFIN mode, and also respect the fact that they have a potential roster crunch at Mayo's position. But, why the hell would they trade him to the Sox for the likes of Jansen and Martin?

Nothing wrong with wishful thinking, but teams never trade like this within the division unless there is a really good reason. If BAL moves Mayo, it is way more likely to be part of a deal for Mason Miller or Helsley from the Cards.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I don't see that those two are offering anything beyond what we already have from Cooper and Romy respectively, let alone a returning Casas.

Sure - as to Gonzalez, the "healthiest" he's even been for a full season (minors included) was back in 2019 and he only managed 100 games even then. In 2021 he played 91 games, then 70, 44 and he's already been hurt this year. He's like another Christian Arroyo. DeJong has a track record of being an excellent defensive SS in the major leagues, and I think that would be preferable to Gonzalez.

As to Goldschmidt, I'm plain old banking on the track record of him being the vastly superior player to Cooper. They're both pretty old (by baseball standards) at 33 and 36 and just like I think there is an effect on a clubhouse when a team isn't invested in around the trade deadline, I think there is also an effect when one is invested in, and Goldschmidt is going to carry a lot more weight than Cooper.

He's historically walked more and struck out less, as recently as last year, and I think that would help the offense more than Cooper. When Casas comes back, I'd feel a lot better about a 3b/1b/DH middle of the line up that went Devers, Casas, Goldschmidt than Devers, Casas, Cooper.



*To be clear, nothing wrong with Cooper right now and I applaud the pick ups of he and Dom Smith to get something capable of playing 1b at the MLB level (sort of like Zach Short to replace Pablo Reyes when Gonzalez himself went down) because what the Sox had at the time in Dalbec and Reyes were not MLB caliber players, even at the bench level.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Normally I'd be on board trying to acquire a cost controlled position player, but they are kind of stuck at this point in terms of where to upgrade.

-1b and 3b are all set for the foreseeable future
-SS and 2b are basically between Story, Mayer, (Rafaela) and Grissom. If Grissom can't play, then maybe they go for a sure thing 2b and see what happens between the other three.
-Catcher is fine in the short and long term
-The outfield doesn't need a short term upgrade and long term looks good if Anthony works out.
-That basically leaves DH and a bad contract.

They would basically have to aim really big for a superstar by moving one of the positions that is cheap and better than average along with prospects. Who that would be? No idea.

If they feel they can compete for a spot, I'd go for the best available rental starter which seems like the way to go when you have roster crunches. Maybe a straightened out Jack Flaherty? Cost controlled seems prospect prohibitive and risky.

TL/DR - Jack Flaherty. Relatively low risk, and probably not farm gutting.

Just perusing the FA list, there are a couple of interesting-but-not-exciting names.

Yusei Kikuchi would maybe be a good candidate if the Jays are indeed looking to blow it up (rumblings to that effect here). But competition will be fierce, and do we know how the Jays would feel about an in-division trade?

Frankie Montas of the Reds or Luis Severino of the Mets could maybe be gotten cheaply, there's a lot of injury risk there, but that's kind of what you're looking at at this point. In both cases, it'd be kind of weird to trade for one of these guys after they were available for (not much) money a few months ago. One consequence of the expanded playoffs are that a lot of teams don't sell their vets like they used to, the Cardinals were looking toast a few days ago, but I wouldn't be surprised if they think they're still in it.

Also: it's not even Memorial Day!

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Since he was mentioned in the MLB article, boy I'm glad we didn't sign Anaheim 2B Brandon Drury. His line is .173/.230/.240/.470, OPS+ of 34, and -.9 WAR. Mercy!

Haha, I was looking at the same guy, dynamite, and came to the exact opposite conclusion!

Hahaha wow that is horrible! So awful.
It's only a little bit better than Red Sox second basemen as a whole this year:
.166/.189/.230, .419 OPS.

 

[moondog80]

I get that the Orioles could absolutely be in GFIN mode, and also respect the fact that they have a potential roster crunch at Mayo's position. But, why the hell would they trade him to the Sox for the likes of Jansen and Martin?

Jansen, Martin, and O'Neill. But yeah, I agree. O's say no.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Jansen, Martin, and O'Neill. But yeah, I agree. O's say no.

But why would we trade for a guy who plays the same positions as our two best hitters? I don't see them giving up major assets (which it would require) for a guy who quickly becomes redundant once Casas comes back. And I know people want to move Devers to DH, but being able to passably field 3B dramatically raises his value and the Sox aren't going to hurt his value that much when he is only 27.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As to Goldschmidt, I'm plain old banking on the track record of him being the vastly superior player to Cooper. They're both pretty old (by baseball standards) at 33 and 36 and just like I think there is an effect on a clubhouse when a team isn't invested in around the trade deadline, I think there is also an effect when one is invested in, and Goldschmidt is going to carry a lot more weight than Cooper.

He's historically walked more and struck out less, as recently as last year, and I think that would help the offense more than Cooper. When Casas comes back, I'd feel a lot better about a 3b/1b/DH middle of the line up that went Devers, Casas, Goldschmidt than Devers, Casas, Cooper.

The Cards aren't going to trade Goldschmidt though. They struggled out of the gate and so did Goldschmidt (.594 OPS, 72 OPS+). They've won 8 of their last 10, including 2 of 3 against the Sox, and Goldschmidt starting to come alive is likely a big part of that (.806 OPS, 2 HR in those 10 games). They're currently only 5 games out in their division and 1.5 out of the last NL wild card. That feels like a situation where if Goldschmidt is performing closer to his career standards (and is thus an attractive trade target), the Cards are going to be contending for the post-season. If they're not in contention, chances are Goldschmidt will not be a very attractive option, particularly at his salary. He's got a full no trade clause as well, so maybe he won't want to uproot for two months in Boston where he'd be a DH (perhaps a platoon one too if he's still underperforming).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Jansen, Martin, and O'Neill. But yeah, I agree. O's say no.

I'm questioning how O'Neill even sweetens the pot for the O's. Their worst hitting outfielder (worst hitting regular starter at any position) this year has been Cedric Mullins (69 OPS+). Their other two regular starters have a 148 OPS+ (Cowser) and a 101 OPS+ (Santander). Presumably Mullins and Santander will improve. We might see those three as the easiest/cleanest trade chips the Sox if they're selling at the deadline, but they are certainly not a package that will entice the O's in the least, let alone bring back someone the quality of Mayo. Even trading them off elsewhere individually probably doesn't bring back a package good enough for the O's to give up Mayo.

 

[grimshaw]

O'Neill seems like a QO candidate to me as a bridge guy. I'd rather hang onto him for that reason. Then maybe they move him next season if he's still with the team.
Right handed power bats are a hot commodity right now.

 

[nvalvo]

There is definitely a position for RHH power bat for Corner Infielder with 500 ABs if you bounce Yoshida. Mayo is what you are looking for. Hell Blaze Jordan or even Nick Yorke could be that guy.

Rafaela being a super sub gives you a lot of options here especially if you get rid of Yoshida. You can bring in a power corner OF bat and/or RHH Corner IF. Looking for blocked prospects like Grissom and Mayo for relief makes a ton of sense. I would also make Pivetta available.

This is exactly what I was thinking about. We need a RHH middle-of-the-order bat for the next half decade, and the time to acquire that player is now. I'd definitely consider moving Pivetta in a deal like this, too.

Mayo is coming off a broken rib. I wouldn't even promote him this year under those circumstances. So then we move Yoshida to his next employer this off season (or the 2025 deadline?), and run with Duran/Grissom/Devers/Mayo/Casas/Story/Abreu/Wong/Rafaela as the starting nine, augmented by Anthony, Mayer, and Teel as they show up one by one.

And to be clear, I am absolutely talking about selling. The reason I wanted a new thread was to focus more on who we should be trying to acquire from the other 29 organizations more than which players we should send out for them. Who are our targets? What hole on the 2026 Red Sox can we fill at this trade deadline?

I'm questioning how O'Neill even sweetens the pot for the O's. Their worst hitting outfielder (worst hitting regular starter at any position) this year has been Cedric Mullins (69 OPS+). Their other two regular starters have a 148 OPS+ (Cowser) and a 101 OPS+ (Santander). Presumably Mullins and Santander will improve. We might see those three as the easiest/cleanest trade chips the Sox if they're selling at the deadline, but they are certainly not a package that will entice the O's in the least, let alone bring back someone the quality of Mayo. Even trading them off elsewhere individually probably doesn't bring back a package good enough for the O's to give up Mayo.

It might be a light package for a top-30 prospect in the abstract, but I was trying to match up with what I understood the O's to need. I'm also imagining doing this deal, like, next week. The Orioles' bullpen is in bad shape, and it's cost them ~5 games this month. They should be trying to shore things up ASAP — kind of like the early deal that brought us Pivetta.

Santander is having a replacement level season, makes $12m, is an impending FA. Mullins is playing worse, and has two seasons of control remaining. It's also possible that we get one of those guys — or even Kimbrel — back as part of the trade, too, although Inside the Parker will shoot me for suggesting it.

So a more detailed version of my proposed trade might be more like:

Baltimore gets	Boston gets
O'Neill Martin Jansen	Mayo Santander

Nothing wrong with wishful thinking, but teams never trade like this within the division unless there is a really good reason. If BAL moves Mayo, it is way more likely to be part of a deal for Mason Miller or Helsley from the Cards.

I was thinking of it as a position-player version of the Andrew Miller/Eduardo Rodriguez trade.

 

[jon abbey]

I was thinking of it as a position-player version of the Andrew Miller/Eduardo Rodriguez trade.

That was a deadline deal in 2014, BOS was in last place at 48-60 and Miller was a FA at the end of the year. If an impact player is heading into FA that winter and your team isn't competing seriously that season anyway, then potentially trading within the division becomes much more likely.

 

[nvalvo]

That was a deadline deal in 2014, BOS was in last place at 48-60 and Miller was a FA at the end of the year. If an impact player is heading into FA that winter and your team isn't competing seriously that season anyway, then potentially trading within the division becomes much more likely.

I don't think Boston's the team that would need convincing. We'd be giving Baltimore a boost for a stretch run against NYY in a year where they should be trying to win a World Series and we are maybe, if we squint, contenders for the third Wild Card.

So we'd be acquiring a future building block in exchange for a bunch of good players, who, like Miller in 2014, are on expiring contracts.

 

[nvalvo]

But Mayo aside, who else should we be looking to snag?

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

But Mayo aside, who else should we be looking to snag?

Luis Robert?

 

[jwbasham84]

He's hitting .214 for the season and on a rehab assignment. Plus he's reasonably signed and the white Sox won't contend in the next couple years... they won't sell him yet. And definitely not for what we have to offer.

 

[Daniel_Son]

If Grissom needs some more time in the minors, how about Abraham Toro from Oakland? He's having a nice year with the bat and probably wouldn't cost a ton.

 

[dynomite]

But Mayo aside, who else should we be looking to snag?

@grimshaw mentioned someone I’d love in Jack Flaherty.

He’s having a great bounce back year in Detroit and is a free agent at year’s end… but he’s also one of the most attractive rental SPs on the market.

For example, our rivals down I-95 in Baltimore just lost John Means potentially for the season, and went so far as to trade for Flaherty last year, so I imagine they could be strong bidders for him this summer as well, and given their ridiculously deep farm system that’s a tough team to bid against.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I prefer to be optimistic, so I'll play:

For starter, adore the Mayo idea @nvalvo. I don't think it'll happen, but that's exactly the kind of move I'd like to see them make (I called it a "sell") but if we want to call it a "buying for the future" I can get on board with that. Mayo would certainly be a target for me (and if Baltimore said "no, he's off the table" then I'd at least ask on Westburg). Like you said, they're going to have to monetize some of them at some point, and if you can add enough pieces that fill holes, then at some point, most teams will trade in the division. I also agree that you'd have to find teams that have holes "in the right places" so to speak, so...

Guys I'd target that could maaaaaaybe be had if you fill enough holes at the MLB level that I'd be targeting - Mayo (or Westburg) from Baltimore; Andy Pages or Miguel Vargas from LAD; James Triantos or Matt Shaw from ChC.


If the Sox are looking at rentals, two names I'd like to see that would a) fill holes; b) carry some weight in the clubhouse as in - hey, we're actually trying and c) could be reasonably acquired at least as we stand here in the end of May.

Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong (whom I've been asking for since Story got injured). Both are free agents at the end of the year; both are old; both are on bad teams going nowhere. If the Red Sox look like playoff contenders in July, those are two names I'd be interested in and couldn't cost all that much to acquire.

DeJong currently has a .944 fielding percentage and makes the current Sox lineup look like paragons of plate patience. How exactly would he be a help?

 

[TomRicardo]

@grimshaw mentioned someone I’d love in Jack Flaherty.

He’s having a great bounce back year in Detroit and is a free agent at year’s end… but he’s also one of the most attractive rental SPs on the market.

For example, our rivals down I-95 in Baltimore just lost John Means potentially for the season, and went so far as to trade for Flaherty last year, so I imagine they could be strong bidders for him this summer as well, and given their ridiculously deep farm system that’s a tough team to bid against.

Why are we going for a rental SP? Also what do you think we are going to give r Flaherty? My guess is a trade doesn't get done without Mayer, Anthony, or Teel considering the growing gap between them and the rest of the farm besides Cespedes.

 

[Max Power]

A good righthanded hitter was a big need in the offseason that got even bigger when Story went down. The only RH in the top 20 in slugging in baseball who might be available is Brent Rooker of the A's. He's a 29 year-old corner outfielder and has been really good since the beginning of last season. He's arb eligible next season, so he's going to start costing the A's some money. I wonder if they'd want to cash him in for some prospects now. He'd be a better fit for the roster than Yoshida, but you could make both work going forward, especially if O'Neill goes somewhere else.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

He's hitting .214 for the season and on a rehab assignment. Plus he's reasonably signed and the white Sox won't contend in the next couple years... they won't sell him yet. And definitely not for what we have to offer.

I actually think they might sell him, since he’s probably the only player on the White Sox who might net a decent return. I doubt the Red Sox will be the team to make the deal, though I think it’d be a defensible choice for them since he’s young, right-handed, and affordable.

 

[sezwho]

Great thread. I still want to lean in on the greatest differentiator in the Sox arsenal: Breslow’s apparent ability to identify and maximize pitching performance.

At the deadline I still want them buying depth pitching where they perceive untapped potential. If there’s an opportunity to get a hole filled in the field, great, but I’m all about the arms.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The Cards aren't going to trade Goldschmidt though. They struggled out of the gate and so did Goldschmidt (.594 OPS, 72 OPS+). They've won 8 of their last 10, including 2 of 3 against the Sox, and Goldschmidt starting to come alive is likely a big part of that (.806 OPS, 2 HR in those 10 games). They're currently only 5 games out in their division and 1.5 out of the last NL wild card. That feels like a situation where if Goldschmidt is performing closer to his career standards (and is thus an attractive trade target), the Cards are going to be contending for the post-season. If they're not in contention, chances are Goldschmidt will not be a very attractive option, particularly at his salary. He's got a full no trade clause as well, so maybe he won't want to uproot for two months in Boston where he'd be a DH (perhaps a platoon one too if he's still underperforming).

Possibly. Though if he's a FA at the end of the year anyway, and thus probably uprooting his family at the end of the season, I don't think he'd mind two months in Boston (when, on average) one of them would be on the road anyway, even if his family were firmly entrenched in St Louis, of which I have no idea. Though I fully admit that being one of a handful of teams within call it 5 games of WC3 and needing to jump several and therefore deciding NOT to sell old players on expiring deals would be "the norm" for the current iteration of the StL front office, assuming Bloom holds any sway there, as we all know.

DeJong currently has a .944 fielding percentage and makes the current Sox lineup look like paragons of plate patience. How exactly would he be a help?

Because over the course of his career he has been an excellent defensive short stop, so I'm betting on the track record.

I often feel that people (not directed at you specifically @Tony Pena's Gas Cloud, just in general "people") get too caught up in the most recent small sample size over the entire body of work. Kind of like the idea that Pablo Reyes was capable with the bat based on a decent call it 1/3 of a season at the age of 29.

Also, I fully expect Gonzalez to be hurt again, because he hasn't played more than 93 combined games in a season (MLB and minors) at any point since 2019 - that was his highwater mark at the A ball level where he played 101 games.




That said, it's all pretty unlikely (at least in my opinion) to matter, because I don't think the Sox will be in a position to buy for the 2024 season in July, but I was trying to be optimistic.

 

[RS2004foreever]

A good righthanded hitter was a big need in the offseason that got even bigger when Story went down. The only RH in the top 20 in slugging in baseball who might be available is Brent Rooker of the A's. He's a 29 year-old corner outfielder and has been really good since the beginning of last season. He's arb eligible next season, so he's going to start costing the A's some money. I wonder if they'd want to cash him in for some prospects now. He'd be a better fit for the roster than Yoshida, but you could make both work going forward, especially if O'Neill goes somewhere else.

I like this - since I think the Sox are likely to be in the WC hunt unless a starter goes down (which could happen at anytime)..

 

[dynomite]

Why are we going for a rental SP? Also what do you think we are going to give r Flaherty? My guess is a trade doesn't get done without Mayer, Anthony, or Teel considering the growing gap between them and the rest of the farm besides Cespedes.

There's no world in which the Sox give up Mayer/Anthony/Teel for a 3 month rental, so if that's the price I'm obviously out.*

As for why the Sox would go after a rental SP, it would be because Giolito and Whitlock are both lost for the season, and the front office thinks him being in the rotation gives them a better chance to grab a Wild Card spot (and advance in the playoffs) than Criswell. Criswell has been an enormously pleasant surprise, but Flaherty's FIP is a full run lower at 2.99.

* BTV calculator is now $25/year, so I can't see what they say is the value there, but the Blue Jays and Dodgers are free this week, so for a rough comparison Kikuchi -- another rental SP -- is worth 16 in value, which slightly less than the Dodger's #3 prospect in Josue de Paula (19 yo OF in A ball, #82 in MLB per MLB.com) and slightly more than their #5 prospect River Ryan (25 yo RHP in AAA, not in top 100). For comparison, Mayer, Teel, and Anthony are all ranked top 30.

 

[bosockboy]

Olney on STL radio said the Marlins are open for business on Luzardo right now.