Who, aside from Casas, would be a good candidate for an extension? Crawford? Pivetta? Houck? Duran?
Rob Bradford had a tweet earlier in spring training where he reported that Houck and the Red Sox had talked extension but nothing was imminent. So perhaps him.Who, aside from Casas, would be a good candidate for an extension? Crawford? Pivetta? Houck? Duran?
I would also explore an extension for Pivetta. They’ll need innings next year, too.Who, aside from Casas, would be a good candidate for an extension? Crawford? Pivetta? Houck? Duran?
I agree on Pivetta. To me, Pivetta and Casas are the only two I’d be trying to extend right now.I would also explore an extension for Pivetta. They’ll need innings next year, too.
Maybe Grissom and Houck too f it's very team friendly.I agree on Pivetta. To me, Pivetta and Casas are the only two I’d be trying to extend right now.
I don't think it would be long term. Maybe 33/3, starting this year (so effectively 24.5 mil for the next two years, with a 3.5 mil raise for this year kicked in).The thing keeping me from wanting to extend Pivetta is his age. He's adding new pitches, too, that will cause him probably to need to torque his elbow more. It's possible he stays healthy, of course, but he seems like a candidate for an arm injury pretty soon.
Pivetta seems like an interesting test of the tension between the right mechanics and the wrong age. I'm very curious about how that plays out.The thing keeping me from wanting to extend Pivetta is his age. He's adding new pitches, too, that will cause him probably to need to torque his elbow more. It's possible he stays healthy, of course, but he seems like a candidate for an arm injury pretty soon.
fWIW, Fangraphs has his value around $15M last year, and roughly that averaged out over the last three seasons. 3/33 seems like a hard no from him this close to free agency, and with his current role probably elevating his value unless he goes off the rails.I don't think it would be long term. Maybe 33/3, starting this year (so effectively 24.5 mil for the next two years, with a 3.5 mil raise for this year kicked in).
Then maybe a bit more. But that’s the model. Take advantage of the fact that he’s otherwise locked into 7.5 for this year.fWIW, Fangraphs has his value around $15M last year, and roughly that averaged out over the last three seasons. 3/33 seems like a hard no from him this close to free agency, and with his current role probably elevating his value unless he goes off the rails.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-pivetta/15454/stats#value
Yeah, maybe he takes 3/$42? Although I wonder if he's in bet-on-myself mode, in which case he just wants to hit the market.Then maybe a bit more. But that’s the model. Take advantage of the fact that he’s otherwise locked into 7.5 for this year.
That seems high — a 2 year 34.5 mil extension after this year?Yeah, maybe he takes 3/$42? Although I wonder if he's in bet-on-myself mode, in which case he just wants to hit the market.
Defo agree on the concept and I'd love just a straight up 3-year deal total, but because of the years involved it could be tricky for Pivetta. You could do a mutual option for a fourth year maybe, if you are buying out his prime. Or you could call it four with an opt-out after 3. Lots of options. His age 32-33 seasons will represent his peak earning power. 3/45 I'm pretty sure he would take, and worry about the next contract later. But less than that, it might require a bit more security in potential years.That seems high — a 2 year 34.5 mil extension after this year?
But we agree on the structure — Bres and Pivetta’s agent can hammer out the exact $$
If you believe Fangraphs he's already been worth more than that in his last three seasons. We need pitching. He's in his prime. Retaining your guys is probably a healthy strategy compared to the alternatives.A 3 year / $42m extension to Nick Pivetta? Is this bizarro SOSH? I think you have to at least see how he looks the first half of the year, don’t you? Is there really a fear of him pricing himself much beyond that, “worst case”?
I thought it was a touch high. But only a touch. Look at what Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo got. Mediocre innings eaters aren't cheap in FA.A 3 year / $42m extension to Nick Pivetta? Is this bizarro SOSH? I think you have to at least see how he looks the first half of the year, don’t you? Is there really a fear of him pricing himself much beyond that, “worst case”?
Wacha has 3.5 bWAR the last two seasons, Pivetta 4.9. He's above their stature, and younger. But if they aren't in the exact same neighborhood, it's just a few blocks north.I thought it was a touch high. But only a touch. Look at what Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo got. Mediocre innings eaters aren't cheap in FA.
Seth Lugo just signed a 3/45 deal. Not sure that 3/42 for Pivetta is bizarre in comparison.A 3 year / $42m extension to Nick Pivetta? Is this bizarro SOSH? I think you have to at least see how he looks the first half of the year, don’t you? Is there really a fear of him pricing himself much beyond that, “worst case”?
Me too. That little sweetener on top is for his prime years and proximity to free agency.I’d go 3/48 for Pivetta. Roll the dice on a guy who can eat innings, we’ve seen his floor but maybe not his ceiling, and he has that edge and fire in him that when he is going well, will be a valuable mid rotation guy. Just watch him pitch and forget about some of the other stuff. His stuff plays, he was great for 4 months last year and he cares.
5/$24 for Duran may be actually be a pay cut.My priority list for extensions:
Casas: 8/110m
Pivetta: 3/48
Duran: 5/24
Crawford: 4/30
Rafaela: 5/32
Yeah, I think Casas, Grissom, and maybe Rafaela are the guys worth extending. We already control the prime years of everyone else; not sure I see the upside. Two years on Pivetta would be fine, too.We already have 5 years of control of Duran and Crawford and 6 of Rafaela.
Maybe Grissom and Houck too f it's very team friendly.
Have we seen enough of Grissom to be comfortable extending him at this point?Yeah, I think Casas, Grissom, and maybe Rafaela are the guys worth extending. We already control the prime years of everyone else; not sure I see the upside. Two years on Pivetta would be fine, too.
Yeah, I think folks are going a bit too extension happy when they're suggesting extending a guy who hasn't even seen the field yet in a Sox uniform (not to mention suggesting extensions that don't actually extend the team's control over the player at all). I'm optimistic about what Grissom can bring, but they've got him for six years already. There's really no need to worry about locking him up for a seventh or eighth year yet, and that's without even considering the depth of middle infield prospects that Sox have. Ditto for most of the other names brought up in the thread.Have we seen enough of Grissom to be comfortable extending him at this point?
It's thought that we might be a bit MI heavy with guys coming up, I'm not sure they try to lock him up just yet.
Player | Pos. | Age as | MLS | Opts | Length / Total Value | Projected 40-man Year-End Payrolls (salary+pro-rated bonus) | |||||||
7/1/24 | 1/1/24 | 1/1/24 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Candidate? | Extend | Best Date | What if All Star | If No - Reason | |
Pivetta, Nick | rhp-s | 31 | 5.166 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr/$7.5M (24) | $ 7,500,000 | Y |
Jul-24 |
|||||
O'Neill, Tyler | lf | 29 | 5.059 | 45294 | 1 yr/$5.85M (24) | $ 5,850,000 | N | Free Agency | |||||
Whitlock, Garrett | rhp-s | 28 | 3 | 3-Mar | 4 yr/$18.75M (23-26) | $ 3,500,000 | $5 | $7.5 | Y |
Jan-25 |
|||
Hendriks, Liam | rhp-c | 35 | 9.164 | 0 / 3 | 2 yr/$10M (24-25)+26 m opt | $ 2,000,000 | $6 | $2 | N | Age | |||
Bello, Brayan | rhp-s | 25 | 1.082 | 3-Feb | 6 yr/$55M (24-29)+30 cl opt | $ 1,166,667 | $3 | $6.17 | $8.67 | $16.17 | N | Extended | |
Rodríguez, Joely | lhp | 32 | 4.096 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr (24) | $ 1,000,000 | A3 | FA | FA | N | Relief Pitcher | ||
Houck, Tanner | rhp | 28 | 2.1 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$770,000 (24) | $ 770,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | FA | Y |
Jan-26 |
|
Reyes, Pablo | 2b-of | 30 | 2.043 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr/$764,000 (24) | $ 764,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | FA | N | ||
Casas, Triston | 1b | 24 | 1.032 | 3-Mar | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | Y |
Jan-26 |
Jan-25 |
|
Crawford, Kutter | rhp-s | 28 | 1.136 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | Y |
Jan-26 |
|
Dalbec, Bobby | 3b | 29 | 2.115 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | FA | N | AAAA | |
Duran, Jarren | cf | 27 | 1.151 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | Y |
Jan-26 |
Jan-25 |
Winckowski, Josh | rhp | 26 | 1.074 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | Y |
Jan-27 |
||
Wong, Connor | c | 28 | 1.079 | 3-Jan | 1 yr/$760,000 (24) | $ 760,000 | A1 | A2 | A3 | Y |
Jan-27 |
||
Abreu, Wilyer | of | 25 | 0.041 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$749,500 (24) | $ 749,500 | A1 | A2 | Y |
Jan-27 |
|||
Campbell, Isaiah | rhp | 26 | 0.086 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$746,000 (24) | $ 746,000 | A1 | A2 | N | Relief Pitcher | |||
Murphy, Chris | lhp | 26 | 0.081 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$743,500 (24) | $ 743,500 | A1 | A2 | N | Age | |||
Rafaela, Ceddanne | 3b-of | 23 | 0.035 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$743,500 (24) | $ 743,500 | A1 | A2 | Y |
Jan-27 |
Jan-26 |
||
Valdez, Enmanuel | 3b | 25 | 0.077 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$743,500 (24) | $ 743,500 | A1 | A2 | N | AAAA | |||
Weissert, Greg | rhp | 29 | 0.088 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$743,500 (24) | $ 743,500 | A1 | A2 | N | Age | |||
Grissom, Vaughn | 2b | 23 | 0.094 | 3-Feb | 1 yr/$742,000 (24) | $ 742,000 | A1 | A2 | N?? | Too Early | |||
Mata, Bryan | rhp | 24 | 0 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr/$740,000 (24) | $ 740,000 | A1 | A2 | N | Prove it | |||
Slaten, Justin | rhp | 26 | 0 | 3-Mar | 1 yr/$740,000 (24) | $ 740,000 | A1 | A2 | N | ||||
Refsnyder, Rob | 2b-of | 33 | 5.048 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr/$2M (24)+25 opt | $1,850,000 | N | ||||||
McGuire, Reese | c | 29 | 4.027 | 0 / 3 | 1 yr/$1.5M (24) | $1,500,000 | N | ||||||
Anderson, Chase | rhp-s | 36 | 8.141 | 3-Jan | 1 yr/$1.25M (24) | $1,250,000 | N | ||||||
Bernardino, Brennan | lhp | 32 | 0.153 | 3-Jan | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Criswell, Cooper | rhp | 27 | 0.142 | 3-Jan | 1 yr/$1M (24) | ||||||||
González, Romy | 2b | 27 | 1.083 | 3-Feb | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Gonzalez, Wikelman | rhp | 22 | 0 | 3-Mar | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Hamilton, David | ss-2b | 26 | 0.02 | 3-Feb | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Heineman, Tyler | c | 33 | 2.02 | 3-Feb | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Jacques, Joe | lhp | 29 | 0.09 | 3-Feb | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Kelly, Zack | rhp | 29 | 1.038 | 3-Mar | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Perales, Luis | rhp | 21 | 0 | 3-Mar | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Uwasawa, Naoyuki | rhp-s | 30 | 0 | 3-Mar | 1 yr (24) | ||||||||
Walter, Brandon | lhp | 27 | 0.054 | 3-Feb | 1 yr (24) |
Heh, not the same topic, he can just go year to year with contracts, but I hear you.How about Chris Martin? Turns 38 this year with only 303 MLB innings in his career. I bring this up somewhat in jest since extensions are usually not for guys approaching 40 but I'd love to see him here for another year and also potentially extend Hendricks once he shows he's healthy.
The point of the PPI ROY picks is to encourage teams not to waste player potential with service time shenanigans. I guess If a player has signed an extension before playing in the majors, the team no longer has any reason to mess with their service clock as the player is being paid either way.https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/players-who-sign-extensions-prior-to-mlb-debut-are-not-ppi-eligible.html
Interesting to learn that players who get extended before playing in MLB (like Chourio and Keith) aren't eligible for PPI ROY draft picks incentives. I'm not sure who this benefits.
No. That's no longer the case. It all depends on the contract language. The team is obviously not interested in tearing up this year's contract/salary for most of these guys, but they certainly can if they want to.The clock has expired in terms of an extension that kicks in this year, right?
The money for the player is the same either way, I'm just interested in taking some of the tax hit this year while they have the space that will presumably otherwise go unspent.No. That's no longer the case. It all depends on the contract language. The team is obviously not interested in tearing up this year's contract/salary for most of these guys, but they certainly can if they want to.
Yeah, that's the basic idea - player benefits from cash in hand. Club benefits from either discounted arb years (if the player becomes super valuable) and/or discounted FA years. The timeline to consider is the first 6 years of control (3 arb) plus whatever FA years a player is willing to give up.From Baseball Prospectus - COTS contracts....Here's what I have. (In my view, "Best Time" to extend is to buy out last two years of Arbitration and 3 years of Free Agency. That will give the player some life changing money and the team a deal. That changes when the player is a clear All Star or when he's a Super Star). This does not include Dever, Story, Yoshi, Giolito, Martin or Jensen - due to age, injury, already extended. (I feared that...the formatting sucks)
If you suddenly start extending all your minimum salaried guys, aren’t you losing a lot of the benefit of having them around? Or at least transferring a lot of that value to fairly far out in the future? I think you probably have to pick and choose a bit.I had a thought the other day. Well, really it lasted for several days and wouldn't let go of my brain. Would you sign Mayer, Anthony, and/or Teel to the Bello extension with some sort of adjustment to make the duration longer to better mimic the Bello deal?
Bello was signed for 6/55 so I'm thinking something like 7/56.5 or 8/58.
It's obviously a gamble, like all contracts. There's a pretty good chance they're going to be worth far more than that. There's also a chance they wash out completely before they even hit the majors. I think that's probably pretty unlikely. There's also a pretty good chance they fall short of expectations while still being functional major league players. I didn't come to any conclusions, but I was leaning towards doing it.
What are the chances they're not worth $7.25 million a year?
I think it’s still probably pretty close. Figure he and Rodriguez (4/$80m) are roughly the same age. Rodriguez has ~ an 18 bWAR with a 4.00 ERA. Pivetta is ~ 8 bWAR and 4.80. Now, sure, if Pivetta puts up last night’s line over a full season he’d cost more, but at present something in the realm of 3 yrs and between $40m - $50m seems pretty fair for both parties.3/48m, which is what I thought was a fair extension for him in ST is starting to look unrealistic if he keeps pitching like this.
Crawford makes sense if the valuation is low enough. He's risky, but if the FO believes he's a real mid-rotation starter, the time to commit is before that fact is obvious to everyone. Crawford is 28 and in his second pre-arb year, and given his age, he's unlikely to ever get a huge contract. Could we get him to bite on a five-year deal at $35m (i.e. including one additional year of control), with a $15m club option/$5m buyout for another year? That would have an $8m AAV, I think.Casas for sure, but I don't think this will be easy despite all his happy talk. There's a great deal of self confidence radiating from his comments, which is a good thing in many respects, it just means he's pretty confident in his long term value, and he's not open to the customary negotiation gamesmanship. This is one where I think the risk in lowballing is very high. I hope they got that nonsense out of their system.
I'm less sure about Houck and Crawford. Despite stretches of competence+, there's still too little to grab a hold of - maybe that's just in the nature of assessing young pitchers.
I couldn't agree more with this. In addition, he wants to be here, he knows what its's like to pitch in a playoff atmosphere (2021) and he pitches with a chip on his shoulder and his heart on his sleeve. A good fit for here.I think it’s still probably pretty close. Figure he and Rodriguez (4/$80m) are roughly the same age. Rodriguez has ~ an 18 bWAR with a 4.00 ERA. Pivetta is ~ 8 bWAR and 4.80. Now, sure, if Pivetta puts up last night’s line over a full season he’d cost more, but at present something in the realm of 3 yrs and between $40m - $50m seems pretty fair for both parties.
But as others mentioned, the further into the season, the less incentive there is for Pivetta to take an extension. It’d be nice to get it done and have the 2 and 4 slots in the rotation (both with potential for more) filled for the medium term.