Given that the team is building for 2022 as much as 2021 (rightly so), it's worth keeping in mind that we can't expect Sale to be the kind of ace who can carry a staff anymore when he comes back. He can still be very good, but if he's not that "true ace," the rest of the rotation needs to be really deep to compete in the division. So, as I see it, you can start 2022 with Sale as the #1, but to hedge the risk in his performance, you need a really strong 2, 3, and 4. Erod can be that strong 2, but the 3/4 need to be filled in, where a strong #3 (credible #2 type) is the hard one to find, especially given their current resources. (I also think they have pretty good depth at 5-7 or so if the rest of the current group gets pushed down the ladder - Eovaldi, Houk, Pivetta)
This is a big reason why I prefer high risk, high reward moves for 2021. For example, Sugano is much more interesting to me than Odorizzi: Sugano has more risk, but he could be that strong #3, while I don't see any way that Odorizzi could. Kluber and Rodon might also be good upside plays, depending on health. Similarly, in trades, I think a Padres trade should target Morejon, a Pirates trade should target Taillon (I guess Musgrove also fits, but he just seems to keep falling short of anticipated breakouts). A salary dump trade might be the most likely route, so that's the key piece to target. That kind of guy is very hard to trade for, but maybe this is a year where they can get more creative than normal.
We'll know about Sugano soon enough anyway.