The key is the dead money with Pedroia and Price (28 mil). One should figure that the active players salary (Eovaldi, Martinez) just gets replaced by free agent signings and/or contract extensions for existing players. In the end, I'm not sure that the 38 mil owed to E and M is a huge consideration considering they have to replace those spots. They could do it on the cheap with young players coming up or buy low free agents, but even those still cost money.
On the one hand, yes, this is right.
But on the other hand, the star player we'd be bringing in with those savings (by trade or FA) would
be a starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order bat. The kind of move I'm envisioning is something like shifting Devers to DH after Martinez leaves, and signing Corey Seager (or Francisco Lindor, or Jose Ramirez, or Carlos Correa) to a ~$30m AAV deal to share the left side of the infield with Bogaerts. Maybe not that specific move, but that kind of move (trading for Matt Chapman when he gets too expensive for the A's, you get the idea...). So yeah, sure, you have to replace Martinez' production, so think of a potential Seager deal as Martinez' money plus Pedroia's money. And some of the rest should be spent on extending whichever of Rodriguez, Benintendi, Devers, and Verdugo we want to sign long term.
Obviously we can't fill every whole with a free agent superstar. We actually have real prospects in the high minors now, unlike the last few years. I think the hope is that Downs turns into our next long-term second baseman, and that Duran fills a hole in the outfield. Those guys becoming good regulars at up-the-middle positions would help a lot. We have some cheap sluggers in Dalbec and especially Triston Casas. We have a few guys (Houck, Mata, Groome, Seabold, Song and Ward) who have mid-rotation ceilings — some more likely than others.
So you could imagine the contours of a 2023 roster that looked something like this:
SP ($70m AAV)
Sale $29m AAV
Rodriguez (extended) $25m AAV
Mid-rotation FA starter $15m AAV
Whichever two of the young pitchers worked out the best. (pre-arb)
Lineup (~$120m AAV)
C I kind of doubt Vazquez is still here, but him or a FA. Call it $15m AAV
1B Casas (prearb)
2B Downs (prearb)
SS Superstar FA signing (Seager, Lindor, Correa) $30m AAV
3B Bogaerts $20m AAV
LF Fungible corner outfield FA slugger — Trey Mancini? Wil Myers? (imagining we've dealt Benintendi in his 2022 walk year) $12m AAV
CF Duran (prearb)
RF Verdugo (Arb2) $12m
DH Devers (extended) $26m AAV
I wouldn't want to hazard many guesses about bullpen and bench that far in the future, but I bet we could put them together for less than $40m AAV. Depending on a million contingencies — especially how the starting pitchers pan out — this could be a pretty good team.