Who should start for this team in 2021?

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If he really is healthy (and not doubting it) I'd like to see him inked to a 5 year deal. Outside of Covid, he's been relatively healthy and seemed to be finally emerging into a solid no.2/borderline no. 1 type. He frustrates the hell out of me watching him pitch but I can't argue with his overall performance and feel like he'd be a good bargain signing now.
Something like $12.5M per year including this season?
 

amRadio

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I don't even know where to begin speculating on post-COVID salaries. The Phillies supposedly lost 145M this season. I don't know how much better they would project revenue to be next summer. I thought E-rod could easily be looking for something similar to Pat Corbin's 6/140M pre-COVID and 12.5M per season sounds super optimistic from our stand point, but I really have no idea how to even guess how much of a haircut players are going to take over the next couple years.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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We’ll know more about MLB’s plans for the 2021 season, the roster, and E-Rod’s condition come spring training. I could see the Sox approaching him about a longer term deal then. But maybe E-Rod would prefer a shorter, 2-3 year deal that gives him financial security but also the chance to hit free agency at a still reasonably young age, when the market will have reset. Who really knows?
 

Mueller Lite

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Eddie Rosario placed on waivers. Anyone interested in him? He'll be 10-12 mil in his last year of arb. I feel like Cora would be a good influence on him and he's a very consistent bat. I've been reading that Benny probably can't be more than a below average to average CF at this stage but if he rebounds offensively, this gives you a chance to move on from him a few months in, get some value and bring up Durran to see what he has.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Rosario had a low babip this year (.248). 14.7% K rate overall but more importantly a 132 wRC+ vs. Rs (.265/.333/.548). All 13 of his jacks came v Rs (155 ABs).

I would absolutely pay $9.6 mil for a year of that. As of now, we only have 3 L bats in the lineup.
 

chawson

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I have a feeling that Kluber will be one of the next/first free agent dominos to fall. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t sign with the Red Sox or Yankees, given his family ties in Boston and his personal trainer Eric Cressey a strength and conditioning coach with the Yankees (and also a Mainer who keeps an offseason facility near Boston).

Pitchers tend to recover from teres major injuries pretty effectively, according to this study. It doesn’t seem far-fetched to me that Kluber could be a 3-win pitcher next year, maybe more. If the Sox could nab him, it could really open some paths for the rest of the offseason to make a contender out of the 2021 team.
 
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BaseballJones

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Get both Wheeler and Kluber. Roll with a rotation of Wheeler, Kluber, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and X (Pivetta?), until Sale comes in halfway through the year. Use Houck in the bullpen.

Wheeler's last 3 seasons: 71 g, 448.2 ip (6.1 ip per game), 27-17, 3.53 era, 3.34 fip, 114 era+, 1.19 whip, 8.6 k/9

Yeah, he's good.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Get both Wheeler and Kluber. Roll with a rotation of Wheeler, Kluber, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and X (Pivetta?), until Sale comes in halfway through the year. Use Houck in the bullpen.

Wheeler's last 3 seasons: 71 g, 448.2 ip (6.1 ip per game), 27-17, 3.53 era, 3.34 fip, 114 era+, 1.19 whip, 8.6 k/9

Yeah, he's good.
I'm with you right up until the "use Houck in the bullpen" part. You absolutely do NOT put him in the bullpen. If there's no room for him in the rotation, he should be starting in Worcester. He has options, you might as well use them rather than waste a guy who has starting potential in the big league bullpen. There's always the option to bring him up later in the year to shore up the pen if necessary. Chances are much higher that he'll be needed to make a few starts though, so better to keep him stretched out.
 

pdub

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Assuming its a salary dump and we're not giving up any prime prospects, I'd be in on Wheeler. He'd be a great #2 and would definitely give the rotation a boost. All I know is we have to do something with the rotation, because it was total ass last season.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Wheelers lack of strikeouts and swing and miss stuff is a major concern, along with taking back $100 million.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Wheelers lack of strikeouts and swing and miss stuff is a major concern, along with taking back $100 million.
Yeah, I’m basically here as well. We don’t know how much the Sox are willing to spend, but if it’s $30M taking us close to but under the tax, then I don’t want to eat up >2/3 of it on Wheeler. I’d rather use that $ to sign Hendricks (or Hand, Rosenthal, whichever late inning RP they like most) and Kluber, likely for less. And then get a CF and another pitcher.
 

nvalvo

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Re Wheeler: we're probably a year away from our next big-money acquisition making sense.

2021 is the last year of Pedroia's $12m, while after 2022 year Eovaldi ($17m), Martinez ($21m), and our outstanding commitment on Price ($16m) come off the books. Also the CBA expires after 2021, so if I were in Chaim Bloom's job, I wouldn't want to be over the threshold unless I knew what the penalties were going to be.

So I would assume we spend close to the line this season with mid-tier acquisitions, and then perhaps go over again in the 2021-2022 offseason, when, pending extensions, a ton of impact players (e.g. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Ramirez, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and our own Eduardo Rodriguez) are expected to be FAs. (I probably missed a notable player or three and at least one extension that has already happened just listing those guys.)

The $50m+ in AAV that drops off the books after 2022 could help us dip back under the limit and avoid the bad end of the penalties, whatever they are by then.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Re Wheeler: we're probably a year away from our next big-money acquisition making sense.

2021 is the last year of Pedroia's $12m, while after 2022 year Eovaldi ($17m), Martinez ($21m), and our outstanding commitment on Price ($16m) come off the books. Also the CBA expires after 2021, so if I were in Chaim Bloom's job, I wouldn't want to be over the threshold unless I knew what the penalties were going to be.

So I would assume we spend close to the line this season with mid-tier acquisitions, and then perhaps go over again in the 2021-2022 offseason, when, pending extensions, a ton of impact players (e.g. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Ramirez, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and our own Eduardo Rodriguez) are expected to be FAs. (I probably missed a notable player or three and at least one extension that has already happened just listing those guys.)

The $50m+ in AAV that drops off the books after 2022 could help us dip back under the limit and avoid the bad end of the penalties, whatever they are by then.
The key is the dead money with Pedroia and Price (28 mil). One should figure that the active players salary (Eovaldi, Martinez) just gets replaced by free agent signings and/or contract extensions for existing players. In the end, I'm not sure that the 38 mil owed to E and M is a huge consideration considering they have to replace those spots. They could do it on the cheap with young players coming up or buy low free agents, but even those still cost money.
 

nvalvo

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The key is the dead money with Pedroia and Price (28 mil). One should figure that the active players salary (Eovaldi, Martinez) just gets replaced by free agent signings and/or contract extensions for existing players. In the end, I'm not sure that the 38 mil owed to E and M is a huge consideration considering they have to replace those spots. They could do it on the cheap with young players coming up or buy low free agents, but even those still cost money.
On the one hand, yes, this is right.

But on the other hand, the star player we'd be bringing in with those savings (by trade or FA) would be a starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order bat. The kind of move I'm envisioning is something like shifting Devers to DH after Martinez leaves, and signing Corey Seager (or Francisco Lindor, or Jose Ramirez, or Carlos Correa) to a ~$30m AAV deal to share the left side of the infield with Bogaerts. Maybe not that specific move, but that kind of move (trading for Matt Chapman when he gets too expensive for the A's, you get the idea...). So yeah, sure, you have to replace Martinez' production, so think of a potential Seager deal as Martinez' money plus Pedroia's money. And some of the rest should be spent on extending whichever of Rodriguez, Benintendi, Devers, and Verdugo we want to sign long term.

Obviously we can't fill every whole with a free agent superstar. We actually have real prospects in the high minors now, unlike the last few years. I think the hope is that Downs turns into our next long-term second baseman, and that Duran fills a hole in the outfield. Those guys becoming good regulars at up-the-middle positions would help a lot. We have some cheap sluggers in Dalbec and especially Triston Casas. We have a few guys (Houck, Mata, Groome, Seabold, Song and Ward) who have mid-rotation ceilings — some more likely than others.

So you could imagine the contours of a 2023 roster that looked something like this:

SP ($70m AAV)
Sale $29m AAV
Rodriguez (extended) $25m AAV
Mid-rotation FA starter $15m AAV
Whichever two of the young pitchers worked out the best. (pre-arb)

Lineup (~$120m AAV)
C I kind of doubt Vazquez is still here, but him or a FA. Call it $15m AAV
1B Casas (prearb)
2B Downs (prearb)
SS Superstar FA signing (Seager, Lindor, Correa) $30m AAV
3B Bogaerts $20m AAV
LF Fungible corner outfield FA slugger — Trey Mancini? Wil Myers? (imagining we've dealt Benintendi in his 2022 walk year) $12m AAV
CF Duran (prearb)
RF Verdugo (Arb2) $12m
DH Devers (extended) $26m AAV

I wouldn't want to hazard many guesses about bullpen and bench that far in the future, but I bet we could put them together for less than $40m AAV. Depending on a million contingencies — especially how the starting pitchers pan out — this could be a pretty good team.
 

A Bad Man

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Lineup (~$120m AAV)
C I kind of doubt Vazquez is still here, but him or a FA. Call it $15m AAV
1B Casas (prearb)
2B Downs (prearb)
SS Superstar FA signing (Seager, Lindor, Correa) $30m AAV
3B Bogaerts $20m AAV
LF Fungible corner outfield FA slugger — Trey Mancini? Wil Myers? (imagining we've dealt Benintendi in his 2022 walk year) $12m AAV
CF Duran (prearb)
RF Verdugo (Arb2) $12m
DH Devers (extended) $26m AAV
Love your posts. CF Jimenez!!
 

BeantownIdaho

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On the one hand, yes, this is right.

But on the other hand, the star player we'd be bringing in with those savings (by trade or FA) would be a starting pitcher or middle-of-the-order bat. The kind of move I'm envisioning is something like shifting Devers to DH after Martinez leaves, and signing Corey Seager (or Francisco Lindor, or Jose Ramirez, or Carlos Correa) to a ~$30m AAV deal to share the left side of the infield with Bogaerts. Maybe not that specific move, but that kind of move (trading for Matt Chapman when he gets too expensive for the A's, you get the idea...). So yeah, sure, you have to replace Martinez' production, so think of a potential Seager deal as Martinez' money plus Pedroia's money. And some of the rest should be spent on extending whichever of Rodriguez, Benintendi, Devers, and Verdugo we want to sign long term.

Obviously we can't fill every whole with a free agent superstar. We actually have real prospects in the high minors now, unlike the last few years. I think the hope is that Downs turns into our next long-term second baseman, and that Duran fills a hole in the outfield. Those guys becoming good regulars at up-the-middle positions would help a lot. We have some cheap sluggers in Dalbec and especially Triston Casas. We have a few guys (Houck, Mata, Groome, Seabold, Song and Ward) who have mid-rotation ceilings — some more likely than others.

So you could imagine the contours of a 2023 roster that looked something like this:

SP ($70m AAV)
Sale $29m AAV
Rodriguez (extended) $25m AAV
Mid-rotation FA starter $15m AAV
Whichever two of the young pitchers worked out the best. (pre-arb)

Lineup (~$120m AAV)
C I kind of doubt Vazquez is still here, but him or a FA. Call it $15m AAV
1B Casas (prearb)
2B Downs (prearb)
SS Superstar FA signing (Seager, Lindor, Correa) $30m AAV
3B Bogaerts $20m AAV
LF Fungible corner outfield FA slugger — Trey Mancini? Wil Myers? (imagining we've dealt Benintendi in his 2022 walk year) $12m AAV
CF Duran (prearb)
RF Verdugo (Arb2) $12m
DH Devers (extended) $26m AAV

I wouldn't want to hazard many guesses about bullpen and bench that far in the future, but I bet we could put them together for less than $40m AAV. Depending on a million contingencies — especially how the starting pitchers pan out — this could be a pretty good team.
I could live with that level of quality in the lineup - not necessarily the names (as you mentioned) bu the level of player.... Where do you see guys like Dalbec, Jimenez and Chavis fitting in .... or do they?
 

nvalvo

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I could live with that level of quality in the lineup - not necessarily the names (as you mentioned) bu the level of player.... Where do you see guys like Dalbec, Jimenez and Chavis fitting in .... or do they?
I don't mean to set myself up as some sort of prospect Nostradamus. I'm terrible at it: I thought Blake Swihart was going to be a superstar. The point of the exercise was to think about how much money the team is likely to spend over the next few years, and sketching out a projected roster is a way to think that through.

And this is the starting pitching thread!
  • Dalbec will either blow the doors off this coming season or... not, because of his strikeout problem gets worse, not better, as the league adjusts to him. Very high ceiling, very low floor. Either way, Casas has the better pedigree, a better strikeout rate, was at the remote site last season, and 20 HR power as a teenager. We'll see what happens there — either way, it seems reasonable that in 2023 we will have a pre-arb power-hitting 1B, and hopefully the other one will have been traded for a good return because he'll also have succeeded. Dalbec's interesting because he was a two-way player in college, but on paper, Casas is the better prospect.
  • Jimenez is super exciting, but he's also 19 and just had his season canceled. It seems pretty aggressive to expect him to take over a starting outfield spot by 2023: that's the year the Sox Prospects guys think he'll debut.
  • I doubt Chavis gets another major league at bat with this organization. He just struck out 50 times in 158 PA while posting a .212/.259/.377 line and playing terrible defense. That was good for -1.0 WAR rWAR/-0.7 fWAR in a 60 game season. That's just shockingly bad. Prorated out (-2.7/-1.9), that's one of the worst big league seasons in recent memory. It's just rare for a player to keep getting enough time to compile that much negative value while playing that badly.
Since 2000 (fWAR):

2018 Chris Davis -3.2
2002 Neifi Perez -2.9
2020 Michael Chavis -2.7 (prorated rWAR)
2009 Yuniesky Betancourt -2.4
2005 Bernie Williams -2.3
2009 Aubrey Heff -2.1
2017 Albert Pujols -2.0
2011 Miguel Olivo -2.0
2011 Raul Ibanez -1.9
2020 Michael Chavis -1.9 (prorated fWAR)
2006 Ronny Cedeno -1.8
2000 Marquis Grissom -1.8
...skipping a few...
2014 Allen Craig -1.6
...skipping a few dozen...
2015 Pablo Sandoval -1.2
 

sean1562

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While I know we all love Devers, does it make much sense to extend him if we are going to sign one of these top flight SS free agents? Chris Sale will be 34 and almost at the end of his contract by 2023. It seems like it would make more sense to allocate that cash to SP then to a $26 million DH.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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While I know we all love Devers, does it make much sense to extend him if we are going to sign one of these top flight SS free agents? Chris Sale will be 34 and almost at the end of his contract by 2023. It seems like it would make more sense to allocate that cash to SP then to a $26 million DH.
I think you're going to look back at this post in a few years and kick yourself. This is coming from the guy who in May of 2003 said the Red Sox should DFA David Ortiz.
 

soxhop411

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I think you're going to look back at this post in a few years and kick yourself. This is coming from the guy who in May of 2003 said the Red Sox should DFA David Ortiz.
not just then, but some people thought the Sox should part ways with Ortiz in 2008 (I think??) wasn’t that the year he got hit on the wrist and then had a horrendous year and talking heads thought his career was finished?

edit: yes. It was his 2008/2009 season in which many speculated his career was over

https://www.providencejournal.com/article/20151117/SPORTS/151119348
 

nvalvo

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Speier wrote up the Sox pitching aims in free agency.

He suggests that the Sox are seeking two SP, with an emphasis on adding a mid-rotation and possibly an additional back-of-rotation starter. It seems like the idea is that Sale and Rodriguez will provide the 1-2 punch at the top, but the goal is to add depth and lengthen the rotation. It doesn't sound like a move to a Tampa Bay-style opener driven approach is imminent.

It appears the Sox are continuing their broad-based exploration of the market. No deal to add a starter is seen as imminent. But the Sox do appear committed to building the sort of starting pitching volume in 2021 that they so desperately lacked in 2020, in a free agent market that seems to offer a number of mid-rotation and back-of-the-rotation options.
Pitchers mentioned as potential mid-rotation upgrades:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano, a back-to-back Sawamura award winner in 2017 and '18, was posted by the Yomiuri Giants this week. He's expected to receive a 2-3 year deal, and is seen as a number 3 or 4 starter in MLB.
  • Corey Kluber: "According to Abbott (who is also Kluber’s agent), the 34-year-old is scheduled to throw his first light bullpen session next week, with plans to throw a full bullpen session by roughly the end of the month." Speier notes that Kluber is a Massachusetts resident in the offseason.
  • Rich Hill, another Massachusetts resident: "According to major league sources, the Sox have expressed interest in Hill, and that interest has been reciprocated."
  • Jake Odorizzi "was an All-Star in 2019 while going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 27.1 percent strikeout rate in 30 starts, and given that his injuries in 2020 didn’t involve his shoulder or elbow, he’s viewed as a decent bet to return to the durability (30 starts and 165 innings per year from 2014-19) and performance he’d exhibited previously.
He also mentions two candidates for a back of the rotation role.
  • J.A. Happ, mentioned in this thread: "a 38-year-old coming off a 3.47 ERA in nine starts but a declining strikeout rate with the Yankees."
  • José Quintana, who I mentioned as a mid-rotation possibility but is apparently not viewed so highly by Speier and his sources: Quintana is "looking to bounce back from a lat strain that limited him to 10 innings with the Cubs."
My view is that this sounds great. In fact, it sounds more or less like what I proposed in the first post of this thread. Many of these pitchers have high upside but injury questions, but in our situation, with Sale returning in June and Houck as a potential number 6 in Worcester, we have some insurance for that.

Rotation
Rodriguez
Eovaldi
One of Sugano/Kluber/Hill/Odorizzi
One of Happ/Quintana

Pivetta

DL
Sale
Whitlock, the Rule V pick we just took from NY, who some see as a starter.

Worcester
Houck
Mata
Seabold
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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This is exactly what I think they need to do if they want to be competitive (mid-rotation + back end starter), although I would add Tanaka as an option to the first group. I would also think Pivetta and Houck would go into spring training competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. Pivetta would likely have a leg up since it appears he is out of options now. Sale coming back at mid year works out nicely since neither would be able to give a full season worth of innings.
 

vegassoxfan

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It was hard watching Sox pitching last season, reminded me of some of the staffs from the early 60's teams, like to see them go after Bauer, but that's a pipedream. Kluber maybe?
 

BaseballJones

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I know he's just tossing there, but it gives you a pretty good sense of just how freaking hard these guys throw. That ball is in the catcher's mitt SO fast...in the blink of an eye. How these guys hit major league pitching is absolutely beyond me.

Glad to see him throwing again.

*Looked like a changeup on the first pitch, and a fastball on the second - that one got there much quicker.
 

allmanbro

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I'm bringing this post over to the pitching thread, because I want to comment specifically on Odorizzi:

He was great in 2019, but that looks like the aberration, unless scouting suggests otherwise. As a side note, he has been among the least efficient in pitches per plate appearance, so probably wouldn't be fun to watch.

More generally, he doesn't seem like the right target to me. They need loads of pitching, so having him as, say, the #4 is a huge upgrade. But he only seems to be capable of 150-160 IP in a season. If they add a pitcher of about his skill level, I'd hope they can get someone who can eat more innings. Having someone who you can trust to be "fine" for 180 innings or more just takes so much off the rest of the staff, starters and bullpen. I'm not exactly sure who that would be. Maybe Teheran, or a trade target.

I guess the alternative strategy might be to stock up on guys who all can contribute a few quality innings, but not cannot be relied on for many. For example, get Odorizzi along with at least two of Kluber/Rich Hill/Rodon/Taijuan Walker or other guys like that. That might work, but it's risky if they all get hurt at the same time, especially since they already have Eovaldi, Sale, and possibly Rodriguez in that category.

I still think Rodon is the most interesting free agent SP when it comes to risky upside.


Edit: One thing that might tell against my desire for a workhorse: given how few innings everyone threw this year, it might be folly to expect anyone to go 180+. I don't think the lack of 2020 innings, specifically, is a worry for guys with a good track record, but I assume front offices are taking this into consideration.
 
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Minneapolis Millers

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Off and on we’ve discussed (and teams have considered, or temporarily tried) stacking SPs with the goal of having each guy pitch 3-4 innings on the same day. It’s basically the planned use of a long man, but with the way the handling of staffs is evolving, with potential bargains out there this offseason, with potentially expanded rosters, is this worth revisiting? Even if you only do it with one spot, it should help preserve the rest of the bullpen while keeping that 6th man stretched out. It’s possible that those two guys could also be available to pitch an inning in relief on their regular throwing days, so they’d be giving you 5 planned innings every 5 days, or about 150 innings over the course of the season.

That’s about what you’d be planning to get from Odorizzi anyway. The innings would just be dIstributed a little differently. This would also keep both guys in that shared role from ever facing the lineup for a 3rd time.

Would this be feasible? Would it be harder on those guys’ arms to consistently throw 60-80 pitches on their main day and another 15-20 meaningful pitches on their off throwing day, than just throwing 75-100 pitches every 5th day? I don’t know that we know. Might be worth exploring.
 

allmanbro

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I wasn't imagining the 3 IP each strategy, so much as mitigating risk just by having a bunch of guys where you expect at least one to be hurt at any given time. If and when they are all healthy, you can find ways to manage that - adding a sixth man in the rotation for short stretches, making one a long man in the bullpen, and if it comes down to it, trading one. I don't think this is the way to go, but it's an option.
 

chawson

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I'm bringing this post over to the pitching thread, because I want to comment specifically on Odorizzi:

He was great in 2019, but that looks like the aberration, unless scouting suggests otherwise. As a side note, he has been among the least efficient in pitches per plate appearance, so probably wouldn't be fun to watch.
The 2019 White Sox, Royals and Tigers were dreadful teams (24th, 27th and 29th in MLB in wOBA). Odorizzi faced them a lot.

vs. CWS/KC/DET: .260 wOBA against, 30.4 K%, 0.5 HR/9, 3.49 xFIP in 56 IP
vs. all else: .304 wOBA against, 25.3 K%, 1.1 HR/9, 4.78 xFIP in 103 IP

Those splits aren't terribly drastic and there's nothing wrong with a good pitcher being good against bad teams. And he did have a velocity spike (which may still be there in 2021?). But his 2019 would probably be more in line with career norms if there weren't three tanking teams in his division that year.

What about Daniel Norris as a bulk 3-4 inning guy? He's finally healthy and put up a quietly excellent season last year, a rare combination of high K and GB rates which put him in fine company. He's got 1/$3.2M left on his contract and I doubt the Tigers would want much.
 

Yo La Tengo

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https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2020/12/21/mcadam-red-sox-reds-pitcher-luis-castillo/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
How much should the Sox be willing to give up for Luis Castillo?

Castillo just turned 28 and has three years of control remaining. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting him anywhere from $3 million to $5.8 million.

McAdam starts with Triston Casas and Tanner Houck.
That starting offer really only works if Bloom and company view the "window" for this team as the next 2-3 years. I like Castillo. I don't know if I like giving up their best overall prospect (per soxprospects rankings) and the pitching prospect who is the closest to being an immediate contributor. If the Reds are shopping him, they're motivated by the chance to dump more salary (like they did by trading Iglesias). I think Bloom can probably get him for less than Casas and Houck.
 

jon abbey

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https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2020/12/21/mcadam-red-sox-reds-pitcher-luis-castillo/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
How much should the Sox be willing to give up for Luis Castillo?

Castillo just turned 28 and has three years of control remaining. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting him anywhere from $3 million to $5.8 million.

McAdam starts with Triston Casas and Tanner Houck.
That is really really light, Castillo is one of the most valuable assets in MLB currently. The baseballtradevalues site has him at 114.8, meaning Verdugo or Devers would almost certainly have to lead the package. The Reds reportedly would like to package either Moustakas' or Castellanos' deal with him, so the best match I can find is Devers/Casas/Dalbec/Mata/Hernandez (96.9 total) for Castillo/Moustakas (95.2 total), which does not seem like a prudent use of Boston's resources.

TL/DR: Only a handful of teams have the resources to trade for Castillo and have it make sense, BOS (and likely NYY) are not among them. That site has Castillo as the 9th most valuable asset in MLB currently:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
204
That starting offer really only works if Bloom and company view the "window" for this team as the next 2-3 years. I like Castillo. I don't know if I like giving up their best overall prospect (per soxprospects rankings) and the pitching prospect who is the closest to being an immediate contributor. If the Reds are shopping him, they're motivated by the chance to dump more salary (like they did by trading Iglesias). I think Bloom can probably get him for less than Casas and Houck.
I bet the price would come down significantly if the Sox took on another contract. Votto would be a non-starter (3 more years at $25 million per year). Suarez at 1B or 3B? He's reasonably paid so I'm not seeing much of a discount. Moustakas? (3 more years AAV of $16 million). None of those feel like a good fit. Wade Miley at $8 million for 2021?
 

vegassoxfan

lurker
Dec 14, 2020
32
I wish they had considered Wacha, definitely better than some of the arms they ran out there last year...https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30544764/tampa-bay-rays-michael-wacha-agree-one-year-3-million-contract
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
53,478
I wish they had considered Wacha, definitely better than some of the arms they ran out there last year...https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30544764/tampa-bay-rays-michael-wacha-agree-one-year-3-million-contract
He has allowed a .885 OPS to all opposing hitters combined since the start of 2019, which is like an entire lineup of 2019-2020 Bogaerts.
 

allmanbro

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
247
Portland, Maine
Wacha came up with a ton of hype. I lived in St Louis during the 2013 WS, and Cardinals fans really thought he might right the ship for them in game 6, but he didn't. Even though I was happy about that, It is a shame he has been such a flop. At the time another new call-up, Carlos Martinez, seemed (to me, a Red Sox fan) completely unhittable. Those two, along with Shelby Miller, were supposed to carry the cardinals pitching staff for a decade. So it goes.

Long story short, no one should have regrets missing out on Wacha. I think he still benefits a bit from that prospect enthusiasm.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
2,935
Wacha came up with a ton of hype. I lived in St Louis during the 2013 WS, and Cardinals fans really thought he might right the ship for them in game 6, but he didn't. Even though I was happy about that, It is a shame he has been such a flop. At the time another new call-up, Carlos Martinez, seemed (to me, a Red Sox fan) completely unhittable. Those two, along with Shelby Miller, were supposed to carry the cardinals pitching staff for a decade. So it goes.

Long story short, no one should have regrets missing out on Wacha. I think he still benefits a bit from that prospect enthusiasm.
I remember the announcers (Buck?) never stopped going on about how great Wacha and Miller were supposed to be and even after they got outpitched by Lester and Co., they kept on felating Wacha and Miller. IIRC, after one of the games, one of the Sox C's (I think?) even called them out on it.