Who scares you in the American League?

[Lose Remerswaal]

As the Magic Numbers dwindle (have the Sox already clinched a wildcard, anyway?) it's time to start thinking about what teams you'd like to see them face . . . and what teams you DON'T want to see them face.

The Final Five for the American League is pretty much settled. Play another month and Tampa could make it in to the postseason, but not gonna happen with just 20 games (or fewer) to go.

Teams listed in alphabetical order. You can only pick up to 2 teams you don't want to face.

Or you can pick none.

 

[tims4wins]

The MFY, without Judge, with Sanchez in a deep slump, with no Chapman, are the worst team in the AL playoff field. The A's are the second worst.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'm picking the same 2 I expect most folks to pick: Cleveland and Houston. And I'm glad the Sox most likely face the winner of Yankees/A's and only have to face one of the 'Stros/Indians.

 

[mwonow]

I'm only picking Houston, Sox are better than the other teams.

 

[pokey_reese]

The Astros, as the team with the second-best record in baseball, the defending world champs, and the winners of the recent series against the Sox, are probably still the scariest team in the AL to me. CLE is a close second with their pitching rotation in a short series.

 

[Traut]

Pitching wins in October. The Astros have far and away the best pitching in baseball. Fear the 'Stros.

 

[bsj]

Everyone. We are 19-18 against the other likely playoff teams.

I guess if I have to pick 2 stros and Indians just because have a winning record vs NYY.

 

[Bergs]

I went with "I ain't scared," which doesn't mean we couldn't lose a series to Houston or Cleveland, because we certainly could.

 

[Harry Hooper]

There's no option for "Red Sox bullpen."

The previous 5 months don't matter as much as who's healthy and who isn't at the end of the month for all the playoff teams.

 

[lexrageorge]

If I'm to believe the Pythagorean calculation on baseball-reference, the Sox should have 93 wins and the Astros 97. So, yes, the Astros are definitely the team to fear.

I fear the injury bug (Sale, Price, EdRod) the most, however.

 

[pedro1918]

Everyone. We are 19-18 against the other likely playoff teams.

I guess if I have to pick 2 stros and Indians just because have a winning record vs NYY.

I really don't know how the answer could be anything but this answer. The Red Sox bullpen is terrifying and seem vulnerable to all potential playoff match ups. I am confident in Sale and Price, and to a slightly lesser degree Porcello, but I have very little confidence in the bullpen.

The Yankees "scare" me the least and the Astros "scare" me the most, but all of them are are capable of knocking off the Red Sox.

 

[Mike F]

As many previous posters have cited, the winner of the 2 v 3 series. Both clubs can win. Sox can beat both teams. The AL playoffs should.be classics.

 

[nvalvo]

Anything can happen in a short series, but I think the Sox should be favored over NY, Cleveland, or Oakland. Houston is more of a push.

All of this assumes that Sale is off the DL for good. If that's not the case, we'll have trouble with any of those teams. The bullpen will be a relative weakness, but I think they'll identify personnel and a usage pattern that will work better than we've seen in the last few weeks.

I agree with tims4wins above that NY is the weakest of the current crop of playoff teams. In addition to the factors he notes (Judge out, Sanchez slumping, Chapman out), Severino has been basically awful for months now. I guess Tanaka's starting the wild card game?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Astros.

The other teams are good but flawed. I don't see many flaws on this Astros team. Their starting rotation has been insane basically all year and Verlander/Cole are especially tough while Morton/Keuchel are no slouches either. Their lineup is deep with power and speed and that's with Correa basically having the worst stretch of his career. If he ever gets it going, look out. Bregman has had an MVP-calibre season and has a knack for hurting us in Fenway. And then you have the bullpen, which is deep and talented. The Sox can beat any AL team in a series but I'd be least confident in a hypothetical series with Houston.

 

[bakahump]

Everyone. We are 19-18 against the other likely playoff teams.

I guess if I have to pick 2 stros and Indians just because have a winning record vs NYY.

Not to pick on you BSJ but everyone keeps pointing to our record against the other playoff teams like its some outlier that predicts doom.

What are the other Playoff teams record against other likely playoff teams?
(Oak,Cle,NY,Hou, Bos)

Cleve 9-15
NY 15-18
Hou 22-18
Oak 18-19
(64-70)

So i guess I dont see how 19-18 is an indictment against the Sox but Cleve. NY, Hou and Oak records are irrelevant.

 

[tims4wins]

Not to pick on you BSJ but everyone keeps pointing to our record against the other playoff teams like its some outlier that predicts doom.

What are the other Playoff teams record against other likely playoff teams?
(Oak,Cle,NY,Hou, Bos)

Cleve 9-15
NY 15-18
Hou 22-18
Oak 18-19
(64-70)

So i guess I dont see how 19-18 is an indictment against the Sox but Cleve. NY, Hou and Oak records are irrelevant.

Wouldn't they have to be .500 against each other in total (including the Sox)? Something is off.

 

[ookami7m]

As everyone else has already said - the only team that worries me is the Astros. Not to say that Cleveland couldn't get hot and run through teams, but I don't see the MFY or A's being deep enough to push a short series without some extraordinary luck.

The Astros are the only team of the four that combines a deep pitching staff (amplified with the short series) and an offense that takes everything to battle.
Cleveland's offense is awesome but without Bauer their pitching depth takes a huge hit.

 

[judyb]

Wouldn't they have to be .500 against each other in total (including the Sox)? Something is off.

NL teams. I messed up by assuming the difference was including records against likely NL playoff teams. I should have looked it up first.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wouldn't they have to be .500 against each other in total (including the Sox)? Something is off.

The Red Sox aren't 19-18 against likely AL Playoff teams. 3-4 vs Hou, 2-2 vs Cle, 8-5 vs NYY, 2-4 vs Oak = 15-15

They are 19-18 if you include Seattle, who is fading fast enough that they should probably be excluded.

Also, the records don't add up to .500 because of an imbalanced schedule. Oak and Hou play each other more than they play the others. Same with Bos and NYY.

 

[bakahump]

Remaining Games with the Yanks etc etc?

 

[ookami7m]

The Red Sox aren't 19-18 against likely AL Playoff teams. 3-4 vs Hou, 2-2 vs Cle, 8-5 vs NYY, 2-4 vs Oak = 15-15

They are 19-18 if you include Seattle, who is fading fast enough that they should probably be excluded.

Also, the records don't add up to .500 because of an imbalanced schedule. Oak and Hou play each other more than they play the others. Same with Bos and NYY.

For each game that includes a playoff team vs playoff team matchup there is one win and one loss. Hence why the aggregate would be .500 </rothlisberger>

 

[tims4wins]

For each game that includes a playoff team vs playoff team matchup there is one win and one loss. Hence why the aggregate would be .500 </rothlisberger>

Exactly. What are the records if you remove Seattle, and the NL playoff teams? So just the 5 AL playoff teams

 

[RedOctober3829]

All of the AL playoff teams scare me as they are all teams that can absolutely beat the Red Sox in a short series.

The A's have a really good bullpen and a lineup that can hit HR's. The Astros are such a good overall team. Elite starting pitching, elite lineup, and improving bullpen. The Yankees have a deep bullpen and a lineup that can score runs in bunches when hot. Starting pitching for them isn't great but if they can go 4 innings and get a lead they are set up for success. The Indians have really good top of the rotation SP, 2 MVP candidates in a deep lineup, and a solid pen.

 

[Wake49]

The MFY will always scare me. I don’t care about how beat up their team is, I will always worry about them until they are mathematically eliminated or eliminated from the playoffs. They’ve burned us too many times for me to feel otherwise.

 

[bankshot1]

Any given Sunday applies

BUT

If Sale and Price each get into the 8th twice tied or with leads, Sox can beat the Astros in a 7-gamer.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Exactly. What are the records if you remove Seattle, and the NL playoff teams? So just the 5 AL playoff teams

Red Sox (8-5, 2-2, 3-4, 2-4) 15-15
Yankees (5-8, 5-2, 5-2, 3-3) 18-15
Indians (2-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-4) 9-15
Astros (4-3, 2-5, 4-3, 12-7) 22-18
A's (4-2, 3-3, 4-2, 7-12) 18-19
Total 82-82

 

[BaseballJones]

This is baseball. We're crazy if we're not concerned about any opponent the Sox could face. They could face the Tigers in a 7-game series and the Tigers would absolutely have a chance to win that. Not a great chance, but a legitimate one.

You can make a case for any of those teams going to the WS. And even if you can't make a case, that team STILL can make the WS just because it's baseball.

 

[Wake49]

The MFY, without Judge, with Sanchez in a deep slump, with no Chapman, are the worst team in the AL playoff field. The A's are the second worst.

Aren’t they expecting Judge and Chapman to come back this month?

 

[chilidawg]

Concerned about them all, but especially Houston. Scared? Nope.

 

[tims4wins]

Red Sox (8-5, 2-2, 3-4, 2-4) 15-15
Yankees (5-8, 5-2, 5-2, 3-3) 18-15
Indians (2-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-4) 9-15
Astros (4-3, 2-5, 4-3, 12-7) 22-18
A's (4-2, 3-3, 4-2, 7-12) 18-19
Total 82-82

Thanks

Aren’t they expecting Judge and Chapman to come back this month?

Judge hasn't swung a bat in a month, maybe he will be fully healthy come October but it's hard to imagine him being the same.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Thanks



Judge hasn't swung a bat in a month, maybe he will be fully healthy come October but it's hard to imagine him being the same.

Judge has been swinging a bat for the last week or so. I'd imagine he'll be back soon.

 

[tims4wins]

Judge has been swinging a bat for the last week or so. I'd imagine he'll be back soon.

Right. We'll see if he gets back to being the same guy.

 

[reggiecleveland]

They all scare me in order.
Astros are the best team right now. Deep lineup and staff, plus have the confidence of champs
A's hot and finishing strong. Seems like the are due a run after many bad post seasons. Plus that abomination of a park is a home field advantage.
Indians are very good, plus post season Tito
Yankees pitching will not be as bad in a short series, plus lots of HR hitter that could get hot. I think we over rating the importance of how we beat them weeks ago. I noticed some of the same people that say what Houston did to the Sox means nothing, nos point to how the Sox swept the Yanks. I still think MLB (and the Kremlin) prefers the Yankees in the WS over any team.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Where the Astros have the "oh shit" edge is with their starters. The Red Sox could force any opponent team to burn out its bullpen on any given day, starting a possible roll-on impact through the remaining games (albeit less then during the season with its daily offerings). Thing is, the Astro starters have the best chance of any team (perhaps outside of Cleveland) to go deep and save their bullets from being over-used. If Sox starters continue to throw 25 pitches in the first inning, it's easy to see how everyone in the pen not named Kimbrel could be spent by game 4.

That's the reason the Yankees aren't as scary as normal since despite they're having a great pen, they may have to over-use it in any given series.

It's not so much that the Red Sox are bad as it is the Astro's are damn good on the mound and are backed up by what looks like a really talented bullpen. Early and big leads are the most conceivable way to beat them...but they remain strong in middle relief. Then again, Wright could be the magic bullet.,

 

[aksoxfan]

Every reference to ‘short series’ leaves me confused. Does that mean the best of 5 series? Where a best of 7 is a ‘long series ‘?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Astros, because they're crazy good.

A's, because they're better than we think.

Not Yankees, because I think we can hit them.

Not Indians, because I think we can pitch to them.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

This has been an incredibly fun season, and I think they are a really, really great team. One of the best Sox teams ever for sure.

However, I'll believe the Astros don't win the World Series this year when I see it. They are a juggernaut. And I am fine with that--anything can happen, but to me the AL is HOU's to win or lose.

 

[Archer1979]

For me: Houston.

But here's the road map...

While all four teams have a legitimate shot at beating the Sox on any given day, the thing to look at is the way that the post-season is shaping up. Assuming that the Sox stay on top of the AL East as well as maintain the number one seed, there's a few more variables to consider...

First is that the wild-card is down to three teams now as the A's have made a run for the AL West.

Second is that the Astros and the A's may go down to the last week of the season with minimal chance to set the rotation up for the Wild Card game against NY. Obviously an advantage for NY. Does it make them better than Houston or Oakland... probably not. But put this game in the Bronx and all of a sudden this greatly evens the odds. In other words, don't be surprised to see NY in the Divisional Series (albeit with their number 2 starter going in Game One). The Sox would have the edge on several fronts. While I always worry about NY, this should probably be the easiest series.

Got to hope that the other Divisional Series goes the distance. The home-field most likely won't be Cleveland, with the preference being that Oakland is the team playing Cleveland, even though the Sox haven't matched up well with Oakland this year. If it's Houston, Cleveland will not go the distance with Houston, which gives Houston a chance to realign their rotation for the ALCS.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Every reference to ‘short series’ leaves me confused. Does that mean the best of 5 series? Where a best of 7 is a ‘long series ‘?

less than 162 games

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Astros mainly, and Indians worry me a bit (assuming Miller is healthy now) ... However, I'm more afraid of the Sox pen than any individual team

 

[YTF]

Houston and Cleveland for all of the reasons list upthread. That said, Oakland's offense concerns me. They may not be quite the caliber of Boston, Houston and Cleveland, but there is certainly enough there that concerns me if the Sox can't get that bullpen going.

 

[AB in DC]

The Astros have only allowed 474 runs this year. The next lowest team, the Dodgers, is at 553.
(Sox are at 559)

That's how good the Astros are this year. The Sox may have had the better regular season, but Houston is unquestionably the favorite.

 

[Sampo Gida]

No True Red Sox fan can ever be free of fear of the MFY. Pretend all you want.

Obviously, at this moment without Judge and Chapman, and with Sanchez and Didi not back 100%, and Severino and Cc struggling they dont scare anyone much. However, you have to worry. 1938, 1958, 1978, 1998, 2018. 8th years of odd decades have been theirs since after 1918

 

[Rasputin]

I went with "I ain't scared," which doesn't mean we couldn't lose a series to Houston or Cleveland, because we certainly could.

This. There's nobody we can't beat if our guys do their jobs. Losing to the Yankees would suck hard but that's just always gonna be the case.

 

[uncannymanny]

No True Red Sox fan can ever be free of fear of the MFY. Pretend all you want.

Bullshit. If you can’t get over it and piss down your leg at the sight of pinstripes that’s your own thing to deal with. Luckily our players don’t share this loser attitude. Maybe you can be a True Twins fan.

I’d rather have the Yankees in the ALCS than Houston or Cleveland. I’m praying for it.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I’d rather have the Yankees in the ALCS than Houston or Cleveland. I’m praying for it.

I'm definitely praying against it, because unless I'm missing something, the only way that can happen is if the AL East winner doesn't have the best record in the league--which means Houston catches us, which makes it pretty likely that the Yankees catch us too (since we'll need to lose a boatload of games for Houston to do it, and at least some of those games will almost have to be vs. NYY).

The only way I want to see the Yankees is in the ALDS.

 

[uncannymanny]

I'm definitely praying against it, because unless I'm missing something, the only way that can happen is if the AL East winner doesn't have the best record in the league--which means Houston catches us, which makes it pretty likely that the Yankees catch us too (since we'll need to lose a boatload of games for Houston to do it, and at least some of those games will almost have to be vs. NYY).

The only way I want to see the Yankees is in the ALDS.

Can’t argue with that. I haven’t cared about the seeding this season enough to think about it. I’d still rather face NYY than any other playoff team (incl Oakland).

 

[Devizier]

I went with "not scared", because the opposite applies. I'm operating under the basic assumption that the Sox have a 1 in 8 chance to win the world series. We focus on the AL but there are plenty of NL teams that could win the Series, too. At the end of the day, I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

 

[timlinin8th]

The Astros have only allowed 474 runs this year. The next lowest team, the Dodgers, is at 553.
(Sox are at 559)

That's how good the Astros are this year. The Sox may have had the better regular season, but Houston is unquestionably the favorite.

This is why I answered Houston. The Astros have the pitching that can shut down the Sox offense and if the Sox offense stumbles against the Stros it could be a painful series.

As I said in another thread, the whole "the Sox are 15-15 against playoff teams!" boogeyman means that playoff teams are also 15-15 against the Sox. The Sox stand a good chance against the field but that RA number for Houston, being the defending champs, along with the recency bias of almost getting swept by them gives me pause.

And for the "fear the Yankees because they are the Yankees" thing... no. The Yankees don't scare me in the slightest. As someone else said, yes any team CAN win, but I think the Sox have a better than even chance against all but Houston.

 

[Wake49]

Can’t argue with that. I haven’t cared about the seeding this season enough to think about it. I’d still rather face NYY than any other playoff team (incl Oakland).

Well, then maybe you should, in fact, think about it.