Even though there may not be a clear reason to argue that any specific one of these teams will fall short, I'm curious how anyone would justify voting for all five of those teams winning divisions. We ought to know baseball better than that by now. My guess is if you went year-by-year and found near-consensus preseason favorites vs. end of year results, success rate on predictions would be well below 83.3% (i.e. five of six correct division winner predictions) over the course of the three division era. There are just too many injuries, out-of-nowhere performers and out-of-nowhere regression/declines to predict this sport without significant error bars.
I went with the Cubs since they will get pushed hard by the Cards (and the Brewers have obviously pushed chips in), but I would take the "one surprise division winner" bet every time. Look no further than last year when four teams significantly outperformed expectations (Yankees, Brewers, Rockies, Dbacks). Of course, last year's standings punch a giant hole in my contention, but I would guess that the "one surprise" bet is successful more often than not.