Which 2018-19 FA will the Sox target?

[chawson]

You probably already know that the 2018-19 free agent class is going to be historic. There's no doubt some teams already began lining up their payrolls to prepare for it, and you could argue that the Price and Hanley signings and the Kimbrel trade each reflected that.

It's still two years away, but as we begin this offseason, it's worth considering who among these players the Sox would realistically be interested in. It could help guide roster decisions and strategy.

Of course, there's no guarantee a FA signs here. But DD has shown a willingness to get his guy at all costs, maybe more than any Sox GM in history.

Committed payroll in 2019 (in millions):

Price – $31
Ramirez – $22 (if option vests)
Porcello – $21.12
Sandoval – $18.6
Pedroia – $15
Total – $107.72

Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Holt, EdRod, Carson Smith, Wright, Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, and a few others are all arb-eligible. Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley could each individually push $10-12 million a year. Benintendi is still cheap.

If you choose a player in a cluster (like Keuchel/Harvey/Richards/Shelby Miller), feel free to clarify in your comment.

*This poll is imperfect. I've had to cluster players a little awkwardly into profiles and separate the big fish into a class of their own. Also recognize that some might think it's unhelpful to speculate this far out. Happy to hear a dope weigh in.

 

[grimshaw]

Way too many factors, but I'll play along.

The list actually isn't nearly as appealing to the Red Sox as when it was written in Dec 2015.

-Can't imagine Kershaw not re-signing in LA while he is in his mid prime.
-Ditto Machado who would be entering his prime unless things get ugly somehow.
-Keuchel, and Cutch both trended downwards. Keuchel could bounce back, but who knows.
-Richards/Harvey need to prove extended health, Way too early to tell.
-So sad about Fernandez

-Harper will get record shattering, mega-star money assuming the shoulder was the issue for his down year and he produces like 2015. It will probably be something in length like Stanton and 40 mill in AAV. Personally, I'd pass for what it would take, but you never know with DD. If he's bidding against the Yanks it could get ridiculous. There's no guarantee he leaves Washington either. He would be, by far their most notable player in history and they have plenty of money.

-In a vacuum, Dozier would probably be an upgrade over Pedey, but who is having that conversation with him? Especially if he's still decent at 35 and under contract for a while longer.

-I like Pollock and Blackmon a lot, but we have no idea how the OF will shake out. Where will Moncada play when Devers is ready? One presumably would be at 3b and the other in LF. Possibly one could be at 1B too but that's not exactly maximizing talent.

-The Moncada thing clouds the Donaldson option too. I have trouble rooting for him, so that's more of a personal reason for not wanting him.

-Miller and Britton are obvious if healthy and still effective.

 

[OCD SS]

I think the FO is not even going to worry about this for another year and half; too much can change over the intervening seasons. They will be flexible and opportunistic to improve from the 2018 squad.

The current lack of commitments looks to come primarily from the production coming out of the of the farm system which doesn't require long term commitments (yet) and a general organizational preference (avoiding long term commitments to aging vets) being realized.

 

[BaseballJones]

Crystal balling it here, looking into the Sox' offseason in November of 2018, having just come off a World Series championship.....

Pitching
SP - Price, 32 ($30m) - 21-7, 3.23 era, 3rd in CYA voting
SP - Porcello, 29 ($21m) - 16-12, 3.95 era
SP - Rodriguez, 25 ($600k) - 17-9, 3.50 era
SP - Pomeranz, 29 ($12m) - 13-12, 4.05 era
SP - Kopech, 22 ($600k) - 4-5, 4.35 era (but showing a lot of promise)
SP - Wright, 33 ($7m) - 5-5, 4.20 era

RP - Barnes, 28 ($4m) - 3-5, 3.35 era
RP - Owens, 25 ($600k) - 2-7, 3.70 era
RP - Ramirez, 28 ($600k) - 2-2, 4.20 era
RP - Someone they picked up after the 2017 season to replace Koji, who retires

Free Agents after 2018
RP - Kimbrel, 30 ($13m) - 3-3, 2.05 era
RP - Kelly, 30 ($5m) - 6-3, 2.35 era
RP - Ross, 29 ($3m) - 4-5, 3.80 era


Position
C - Swihart, 26 ($8m) - .270/.330/.450/.780
1b -
2b - Pedroia, 34 ($15m) - .285/.340/.450/.790
3b - Moncada, 23 ($???) - .275/.330/.520/.850
SS - Bogaerts, 25 ($12m) - .320/.375/.475/.850
LF - Benintendi, 23 ($600k) - .315/.385/.430/.815
CF - Bradley, 28 ($13m) - .280/.350/.525/.875
RF - Betts, 25 ($13m) - .330/.380/.550/.930
DH - Encarnacion, ($25m) - .260/.350/.550/.900
Bench - Vazquez, Travis, Hernandez, veteran OF, Sandoval ($19m)

Free Agents after 2018
1b - Ramirez, 34 ($23m) - .270/.320/.500/.820


So to me, you'd need to find a solution at 1b first and foremost. I think the rotation, especially if Kopech is coming off a season where he got some experience in the rotation, and would be the #5 guy, would be in good shape. I don't know that Price would opt out. It probably depends on how 2017 goes. If he has a rough 2017, following his 2016 season, he probably cannot demand the money on the open market he's already scheduled to get, even if he has a bang-up 2018. But what do I know? He might hit $35m in such a scenario. If he opts out, holy smokes it changes things considerably.

Given the study offense that this group above would be, I think they could afford to go cheap at 1b and bring up Travis, who should be solid with the glove, and pretty decent with the bat. Not thinking he'll become an all-star there, but he'll be a nice complementary player with this group. This lineup wouldn't at all be bad:

2b Pedroia
LF Benintendi
RF Betts
DH Encarnacion
CF Bradley (who hopefully has become a more consistent hitter, and a 30+ homer guy)
SS Bogaerts
3b Moncada
1b Travis
C Swihart

I also think they should target a big-time reliever. Going cheap at 1b would allow them to spend on a Miller-type reliever. Because losing Kimbrel and Kelly (who I think will be really good next year in that role) would be a LOT to lose. So maybe you re-sign Kelly. But they'll need bullpen help for sure.

So I'd say fill 1b in-house, sign one or two bullpen guys, and make sure you keep Price or spend $$ to fill his spot. And that's basically it.

 

[chawson]

Crystal balling it here, looking into the Sox' offseason in November of 2018, having just come off a World Series championship.....

Pitching
SP - Price, 32 ($30m) - 21-7, 3.23 era, 3rd in CYA voting
SP - Porcello, 29 ($21m) - 16-12, 3.95 era
SP - Rodriguez, 25 ($600k) - 17-9, 3.50 era
SP - Pomeranz, 29 ($12m) - 13-12, 4.05 era
SP - Kopech, 22 ($600k) - 4-5, 4.35 era (but showing a lot of promise)
SP - Wright, 33 ($7m) - 5-5, 4.20 era

I believe Pom's a FA after 2018.

 

[BaseballJones]

I believe Pom's a FA after 2018.

Yep you're correct. I misread the b-ref page. So..... They'd definitely need another starter in my scenario. Which, mind you, has about a 2% chance of being close to reality.

 

[soxfan121]

Crystal balling it here, looking into the Sox' offseason in November of 2018, having just come off a World Series championship.....

Pitching
SP - Price, 32 ($30m) - 21-7, 3.23 era, 3rd in CYA voting
SP - Porcello, 29 ($21m) - 16-12, 3.95 era
SP - Rodriguez, 25 ($600k) - 17-9, 3.50 era
SP - Pomeranz, 29 ($12m) - 13-12, 4.05 era
SP - Kopech, 22 ($600k) - 4-5, 4.35 era (but showing a lot of promise)
SP - Wright, 33 ($7m) - 5-5, 4.20 era

RP - Barnes, 28 ($4m) - 3-5, 3.35 era
RP - Owens, 25 ($600k) - 2-7, 3.70 era
RP - Ramirez, 28 ($600k) - 2-2, 4.20 era
RP - Someone they picked up after the 2017 season to replace Koji, who retires

Free Agents after 2018
RP - Kimbrel, 30 ($13m) - 3-3, 2.05 era
RP - Kelly, 30 ($5m) - 6-3, 2.35 era
RP - Ross, 29 ($3m) - 4-5, 3.80 era


Position
C - Swihart, 26 ($8m) - .270/.330/.450/.780
1b -
2b - Pedroia, 34 ($15m) - .285/.340/.450/.790
3b - Moncada, 23 ($???) - .275/.330/.520/.850
SS - Bogaerts, 25 ($12m) - .320/.375/.475/.850
LF - Benintendi, 23 ($600k) - .315/.385/.430/.815
CF - Bradley, 28 ($13m) - .280/.350/.525/.875
RF - Betts, 25 ($13m) - .330/.380/.550/.930
DH - Encarnacion, ($25m) - .260/.350/.550/.900
Bench - Vazquez, Travis, Hernandez, veteran OF, Sandoval ($19m)

Free Agents after 2018
1b - Ramirez, 34 ($23m) - .270/.320/.500/.820


So to me, you'd need to find a solution at 1b first and foremost. I think the rotation, especially if Kopech is coming off a season where he got some experience in the rotation, and would be the #5 guy, would be in good shape. I don't know that Price would opt out. It probably depends on how 2017 goes. If he has a rough 2017, following his 2016 season, he probably cannot demand the money on the open market he's already scheduled to get, even if he has a bang-up 2018. But what do I know? He might hit $35m in such a scenario. If he opts out, holy smokes it changes things considerably.

Given the study offense that this group above would be, I think they could afford to go cheap at 1b and bring up Travis, who should be solid with the glove, and pretty decent with the bat. Not thinking he'll become an all-star there, but he'll be a nice complementary player with this group. This lineup wouldn't at all be bad:

2b Pedroia
LF Benintendi
RF Betts
DH Encarnacion
CF Bradley (who hopefully has become a more consistent hitter, and a 30+ homer guy)
SS Bogaerts
3b Moncada
1b Travis
C Swihart

I also think they should target a big-time reliever. Going cheap at 1b would allow them to spend on a Miller-type reliever. Because losing Kimbrel and Kelly (who I think will be really good next year in that role) would be a LOT to lose. So maybe you re-sign Kelly. But they'll need bullpen help for sure.

So I'd say fill 1b in-house, sign one or two bullpen guys, and make sure you keep Price or spend $$ to fill his spot. And that's basically it.

You made up numbers? And then used those made up numbers to support your conclusions?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

You made up numbers? And then used those made up numbers to support your conclusions?

Cause why not pull shit out of your ass?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Yep you're correct. I misread the b-ref page. So..... They'd definitely need another starter in my scenario. Which, mind you, has about a 2% chance of being close to reality.

We have enough crap being posted on here without you writing fiction. Maybe you can write a book during your time off.

 

[sean1562]

Why wouldn't machado be in the running for a massive deal, even bigger than harper and stanton?

 

[nvalvo]

I would have said Fernandez, with Price's money. But now? Machado, I guess?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Can we just lock this?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Can we just lock this?

Why? This could be a super terrific mega thread for the next 2 years!

 

[PTC]

Well I got my vote in for Machado before this baby got locked! But I think he's probably the most likely of that bunch to not be available (maybe tied with Kershaw). He'd still be young, he's an amazing 2 way player. But if we're all dreaming here.....he's my vote.