Over a decade ago we had a very cerebral oddball 1B prospect that we thought would be great, perhaps aided by the Lancaster launching pad.
Casas is like they sent Lars back to the lab for further tweaking and came out with a much better model.
When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx
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Casas is like they sent Lars back to the lab for further tweaking and came out with a much better model.
His range around first is poor and he has trouble making the right decision about which way to go on in-between ground balls. I've never seen so many dribblers with nobody covering first than in this season with Casas. I'm not sure what can be done about the range problem since he doesn't seem to be naturally quick, but he can work on the correct team defense of grounders in spring training.
I agree he's not quick, but seeing him run the bases (particularly when goun 2B to 3B and you can see him from the front), he looks like he could strengthen his legs and lose some baby fat. If he came into camp in 2024 "in the best shape of his life" and was 10 pounds lighter while gaining strength, I'd bet it would improve his quickness. And making the right decisions is a combo of more reps, not trying to do too much, and trusting the 2B man.
I expect him to improve to at least an average level 1B man by his 3rd season. Maybe Youk can coach him up since they're both hit-first RH fielders who converted to 1B.
I feel like you are misinterpreting that Soxprospects scouting report. In the line that you quote, it seems like they are suggesting that him “moving well” and having “fluid actions” are reasons to think he can be a “potential solid-average defender” (someday). Importantly, they’re not saying he was solid-average in the minors, just that they have reason to hope he could be. It’s faint praise at best.
What we do know is that in the majors Casas has been the worst fielding first baseman in baseball (-6 DRS), that he’s been bad at every aspect of the position (can’t scoop up errand throws, has no range and makes horrible decisions around the bag) and it’s a major problem on a team whose biggest weakness is fielding.
The big question the Sox have to decide (and the trade deadline should give us some sense of this) is whether they are trying to contend this year. If they are, Tristan Casas should be immediately made their full-time DH; Turner needs to be their everyday 1B the rest of the season.
It’s amazing how competitive the Sox have been despite playing truly, horrific defense. Luckily we not only have a good defensive SS about to come back from injury but a “DH” on the roster who has already been credited with 2 defensive runs saved at 1B despite only limited time at the position (213 innings).
This team with Casas DHing, and Story, Arrroyo and Turner in the infield would be a likely playoff team. While that does mean having to accept Durant’s defense in CF, he’s at least shown some improvement (not just potential for improvement) in that area.
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Among MLB 1B, our boy is now 11th in wOBA and xwOBA, and 6th(!!!!) in ISO, with a BABIP that ranks 16th, sitting at 0.294. His defense, and the fact that he's not quite playing fulltime, drags him down to 15th in WAR. So, as of now he's basically a completely average 1B when all the numbers wash out. See where he goes from here.
The kinda-sorta semi-regular Casas update....
Through May 1: 96 PA, 3 hr, 8 rbi, .128/.281/.282/.563
Since May 1: 226 PA, 11 hr, 28 rbi, .294/.381/.538/.919
Last 10 games: 36 PA, 5 hr, 9 rbi, .452/.528/1.065/1.592
Dude is absolutely RAKING. On the season, he's currently #10 in all qualified 1b in OPS at .816. His defense still needs work, but he's already become a GOOD major league hitter. Perhaps on his way to becoming great.
Through May 1: 96 PA, 3 hr, 8 rbi, .128/.281/.282/.563
Since May 1: 226 PA, 11 hr, 28 rbi, .294/.381/.538/.919
Last 10 games: 36 PA, 5 hr, 9 rbi, .452/.528/1.065/1.592
Dude is absolutely RAKING. On the season, he's currently #10 in all qualified 1b in OPS at .816. His defense still needs work, but he's already become a GOOD major league hitter. Perhaps on his way to becoming great.
You superstitious Stanleys aren’t going to change the thread title till the season ends, are you?
A little more on this in the Glob (Good Story):
This recent surge by the Red Sox’ Triston Casas is all part of the process - The Boston Globe
What a different tune from the reporting from late last year, with vets complaining about his "routine." Love to see Story giving that kind of support and the things Turner says on the record.
I get the feeling Story is a really good dude, and not just in baseball circles. This Casas example shows he might be a quiet leader who has a great impact on others.
Worth pointing out now that Casas has a higher wRC+ (and fWAR) than Vladdy Jr., and is within spitting distance (offensively) of being a top-10 or even top-5 first baseman. Since May 1st, he is 17th in all of baseball by wRC+, 14th in wOBA.
23 years old. He’s becoming an absolute force and it’s just going to get more interesting as he grows up and becomes more feared.
Time to fess up people. Who here thought early in the year that Casas wouldn’t become a good MLB hitter? There were a lot of you.
I don't think I've ever made a particularly negative post about Casas.
But I'm up for an audit whenever.
Not me. I was worried, but folks here kept pointing out regularly positive underlying numbers, so never *that* worried
Over on Reddit, a user uploaded a comp of Trison "Baby" Casas mic'd up during the Braves series. The dude seems so relaxed - super funny with Albies, casual with Olson ("What's up Matt, how we doing baby? Nice AB") and Murphy ("What's up Sean baby?"). Alerting the ump to his yelling habit "What's up Eric, how you doing? I know we've had you a lot, so if I happen to yell where I think the location is . . . feel free to disagree"). Love to see it.
It was from NESN’s instagram
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvKLGD-Ojay
Embedded version below
View: https://streamable.com/u10ik2
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Through May 1: 96 PA, 3 hr, 8 rbi, .128/.281/.282/.563
Since May 1: 235 PA, 12 hr, 30 rbi, .301/.392/.552/.943
Last 13 games: 49 PA, 6 hr, 11 rbi, .450/.551/1.000/1.551
Even with that atrocious first month, he now ranks #7 in MLB among qualified 1b in ops (.836).
Whatever adjustments he made, worked. Now let's see baseball adjust to him, and then him adjust back.
Since May 1: 235 PA, 12 hr, 30 rbi, .301/.392/.552/.943
Last 13 games: 49 PA, 6 hr, 11 rbi, .450/.551/1.000/1.551
Even with that atrocious first month, he now ranks #7 in MLB among qualified 1b in ops (.836).
Whatever adjustments he made, worked. Now let's see baseball adjust to him, and then him adjust back.
I thought it was only a matter of time until he figured it out, though I though the same of Lars Anderson.
Since May 1st, there are only 9 MLB hitters with a higher wOBA than Casas. They are Ohtani, Freeman, Seager, Betts, Soto, Acuña, Yelich, Robert and Arenado.
Lars Anderson was one of the first prospects I seriously followed. Wish he could have worked out.
The big difference between Casas and Anderson is that Anderson never showed power in game. He controlled the zone well, had a good hit tool, but the power was always projected.He did post an excellent ISO in 140 PAs in AA but for the most part he was always in the 150-200 range. The thought (I thought it anyway) was that this was a kid who clearly knew how to hit, who was very large and athletic, who had an excellent work ethic, combine all that and of course the power would come. It never did.
Gabe Kapler wrote a blog about how he loves Lars as a person, he was his first manager in the minors, but that Anderson was also super self-critical of himself. He recounted how he was disappointed with himself over only having a competitive at-bat against David Freak'n Wells as a teenager during his post-draft scrimmage. Kapler felt that Anderson being frustrated with something that for anyone else would have been a positive was a sign of things to come.
Casas was dogged with the questions of the in-game power by some, but I think most of that can b explained away by the weird development path he had between the pandemic and the team USA teams (where he showed a lot of power). We also have much more sophisticated tools that suggested more power potential than what was being seen (exit velocities) that weren't available with Anderson.
So, how long does Tris need to keep this up to pass Josh Jung in the RoY voting?
Jung had a great first half, but he's been scuffling along with a .250/.300/.420ish line for a couple months now. Casas started slow, but is now hitting ~.290/.390/.550 over the last two months. Jung has considerably more defensive value. This could be a race!
Jung had a great first half, but he's been scuffling along with a .250/.300/.420ish line for a couple months now. Casas started slow, but is now hitting ~.290/.390/.550 over the last two months. Jung has considerably more defensive value. This could be a race!
From the odds I’m seeing, it’s a 3 man race between Jung, Yoshida and Gunnar Henderson.
I am delighted that he is hitting as well as he is now. I also have no qualms with saying he and the team may have been better off with him spending the first six weeks or so of the season on AAA, had there been a better option to play first.
I will also add that he still has a tremendous split between bases empty and men on. His power is still there for the most part, but his hits and walks are both down significantly when there are runners on. Those numbers are way better than they were two months ago, so no question trending upwards.
The BB:K rate stands out in that split. Wonder if he is pressing / chasing more with men on. Wonder what some of the advanced stats would say about swinging on pitches out of the zone, etc., if anyone has some time to dig in.
Maybe I'm miscomputing (I haven't figured these sorts of things since my olden days), but I get .316/.415/.588 for Casas for June/July. If I'm right, then he's been even better than your numbers suggest. (If I'm wrong, never mind.)
Oh, for some reason I thought Henderson was already ineligible. He had 132 PA last season.
Lars fooled folks the year he hit in that wind-tunnel west coast league. Casas was hitting some absolute moon shots in normal conditions as a minor leaguer. I think that he hit a couple of 450+ in one week and at least one that was 470 (Portland?). I don't think that there were ever legitimate power or eye concerns about Casas.
It's amazing how much Lars regressed in his full season in AA (.233/.328/.345) after hitting .316/.436/.526 in his initial promotion in 2008.
I think it will come down to how Jung, Henderson and Casas perform down the stretch (I know, duh), along with the need for the Red Sox to remain a serious wild-card contender. The latter two players have a significant advantage IMO in playing for AL East teams in the Northeast Corridor media market.
Let's not forget Masa. If he wins the batting title and the Sox make the playoffs, it'll be hard to ignore his candidacy.
Why? There have only been four such winners (of over 150 total) in the 76 year history of the award: Hideo Nomo (1995), Kaz Sasaki (2000), Ichiro (2001), Ohtani (2018). Hardly seems getting worked up over, let alone something that requires a change in the rules.
It just seems crazy to put Masa up against other rookies when he's 30 and has been playing in a legit league for years.
Japanese players haven’t been an extremely common occurrence since, iirc, Nomo. I think an age restriction could make sense, it doesn’t seem fair to compare Yoshida at 30 to, for example Casas at 24
If a 30 year old player worked his way up from the minors and after years of setbacks made the majors and had a monster season, wouldn't you feel a bit cheated if he couldn't win the ROY?
The first ever rookie of the year, the guy the award is named after, was 28 and had played in a "legit" league for years before his rookie season. Though I imagine there were plenty of folks who would have been fine not letting him play at all, let alone not giving him the award. 
Fair point. I guess I consider the NPB closer to MLB than to the minors, so it seems slightly unfair. Maybe age cutoff shouldn’t be a thing for the point you made, but you can’t really compare a guy like Yoshida and a guy like Jordan Walker, for example. It doesn’t really matter much anyway, so I hope Yoshida wins (or Casas continues to pop off and runs away w it)
I definitely understand what you're getting at. But plenty of guys have come over from Japan and not been great players. It's a hard transition, if you're doing it coming from Japan at 30, or coming from AAA at 23. When I was younger and Ichiro won it I did think it was almost like cheating, but I've seen so many not make the transition since then and it changed my mind.
It would be a shame if Yoshida beat Casas for ROY since we'd get a 1st round pick if Casas wins but nothing if Yoshida wins. But still kinda cool.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/complete-list-of-2023-rookies-eligible-for-prospect-promotion-incentive-draft-picks/