Duly noted. And kudos to Bloom et. al. for recognizing that Hosmer's tank was empty.Eric Hosmer is available
When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx
- Thread starter koufax32
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It's just the situation of a bridge year, where you have multiple candidates for various positions crowding the 40-man while you sort out what the actual future looks like. Casas at least should stick in the bigs and do his growing at that level, for the reasons mentioned above (particularly his age), and at least on the defensive side it's not really a different experience versus mastering 1B in AAA, right? If anything, he probably has better coaching on the little things of 1B defense, or at least access to it, in Boston.
I would prefer that players in Boston didn't require growing. If they think that for the next two months Duvall is likely to be a better MLB hitter than Casas, then I would have no problem with Casas going down for two months to work on a few things. An outfield of Duvall, Doogie, and Duran, with Yoshida DHing and Turner at first would likely improve the defense at two positions, which by itself could make the move worth doing.
Closer to the trade deadline they could evaluate how both Casas and the team are doing. If things work out well, Casas comes back up and Duvall can be traded.
So they should never bring up any prospects ever? Because every single player they bring up from the minor league system is going to need some period of growth and adjustment. It is a rare player who hits the big leagues at 100 mph and never slows down.
If we're going to ding Casas for his last two weeks of struggles, why are we handing Duran a job when Duvall gets back? He's got a .517 OPS since May 15.
I'm not dinging Casas for two weeks of struggles. I'm dinging him because after 75 games in Boston, he still seems like a guy who is almost ready. Yes, every young player needs an adjustment period coming into the majors. Casas has now had about half a season, and perhaps most disappointing is that his numbers this year are worse than last year.
So far, there hasn't been anyone else on the 40 man who would be an improvement on what Casas has provided. That could change shortly as some players come back from the IL. I am not calling Casas a bust, nor am I ready to give up on him, but he has not done anything yet that should give him an unquestionable slot on the Boston roster. And yes, the same can be said for Duran.
I'd take that. And for the record, after playing 74 games in Boston in 1991, Mo went back to Pawtucket for 39 games in 92.
Or this:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml
Casas could suck for another year, then be OK for two more, then another shitty one... and still get $270m on the open market.
What they do with these continued injury-affected positional logjams should tell us how they are thinking. You are advocating for prioritizing 2023 over hard-won development, but I suspect the FO won't do that. They'll never admit it's a bridge year because the Shaughnessyites will lose their minds, but it sure looks like one.
Baseball can be like a game of chess. Sometimes you sacrifice a piece to gain a greater advantage.
FWIW, I don't think Vaughn and Casas are exact comps, but. . .they're both first round picks in the low 20s.
Casas had about 1000 ABs in 4 years of the minors (.269/.374/.485 - OPS .858) and came up for his first full season (this year) at age 23.
Vaughn also had about 1000 ABs in 4 years of the minors (.284/.378/.490 - OPS .869) and came up for his first full season at age 24.
Vaughn's age 24 season (92) was pretty lackluster, and as Brohammer noted, he was demoted to AAA for a spell, before being called up again. He also had 3 years at Seaton Hall.
If the team continues playing like they have the past week, this discussion could become moot before the injury related logjam arrives.
It would be interesting to know if Bloom had any thoughts of bringing in another 1B candidate for spring training at least before Story went on the IL and they needed to try to plug up the middle of the infield.
He had Turner, and Dalbec. There really wasn’t any room on the roster for anyone additional.
Wouldn't Justin Turner fit that bill? And Dalbec to a lesser extent (in the fact that he's already on the roster)?
I can't imagine the market was overflowing with guys who were willing to sign to be the plan B to the team's #1 prospect.
I don't think so. . .they always had Dalbec as a "maybe" on the roster.
They DFA'd Hosmer on 12/16. Not an ideal fit, but a freebee, basically, if they were really worried Casas wouldn't make the jump.
They signed Goodrum (sub with 1B experience) on 12/22 to a minor league deal.
Story was reportedly working out during the last week of Dec. when something happened at some point after that.
They signed Turner on Jan 6, possibly with the idea he could transition to 1B (had minimal prior experience there.)
Story had surgery Jan 10.
But there really wasn't that much of a scramble to plug up the IF. We've had a lot of turn-over but there really wasn't that much roster juggling in response to the injury. The Sox already had Arroyo for 2B/SS, and had previously signed Hernandez CF/SS/2B (back in Sept) to a one year extension.
On 1/24 they traded for Mondesi who they knew would be on the 60 day IL most likely, and signed Duvall to a one year deal (allowing Hernandez to move to SS full time). Later in Feb. they signed Chang to back up SS and as a bridge to Mondesi.
And that worked* until Chang was injured and Valdez was called up.
Then Arroyo went down and the Sox traded for Reyes after a week of Dalbec.
*Despite this special moment of insanity: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA202304120.shtml
It is, and has always been, 100% a bridge year. Unless Casas strikes out 25 times in a row and starts missing easy throws to first, he will be playing in Boston.
The plan was to put together a competitive team (with small commitments) that could slip into a playoff spot if everything broke the right way. If not, no big deal, but let’s get experience for Casas, Whitlock, Bello, Yoshi, etc.
IMO bloom has been waiting for 2024 to “really” compete, and that’s been the plan since 2020.
The Bridge is the best covers compilation probably ever put out.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bridge:_A_Tribute_to_Neil_Young
And yes…. ‘23 was IMO viewed as a bridge year. Or perhaps last season was and this year it’s more like the first steps on the other side? But either way, I don’t think full competition was expected. If it happened (health, rookies playing high level quickly, one year vets playing well) it’s either in hopes to spin off guys for depth (playing around .500) or least expected- in the playoff mix.
It really hinges on Sale’s health.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bridge:_A_Tribute_to_Neil_Young
And yes…. ‘23 was IMO viewed as a bridge year. Or perhaps last season was and this year it’s more like the first steps on the other side? But either way, I don’t think full competition was expected. If it happened (health, rookies playing high level quickly, one year vets playing well) it’s either in hopes to spin off guys for depth (playing around .500) or least expected- in the playoff mix.
It really hinges on Sale’s health.
At least 2023 isn't a trainwreck, like it is for the Phillies. With great risk comes epic failure.
Phillies records after 56 games
2023 - 25-31
2022 - 27-29
So they're a bit worse this year than last, but the story is hardly over. It's a long season.
I HIGHLY doubt that's been the plan since 2020
"Just give me 4 years and then we will REALLY compete" seems like a non-starter when the owners are paying as much as FSG is in salaries
It is a great compilation and I have been to 2 of the Bridge School concerts. Both tremendous.
I firmly believe the plan was always to get out from the commitments (contracts) and allow the minor league system to start producing. Yes, FSG pays a lot in salary, which largely was the result of prior commitments. They wanted to stay competitive but avoid detrimental contracts. I’m not talking about TANKING, but more about plugging holes and letting contacts expire.
Story was brought in to cover Bogaerts when he left (he was always leaving) but all the other moves were focused on 2024 or were short-term, lightning in a bottle types.
I mean, I don’t KNOW, but that’s what I believed from the end of 2019 to now.
Not to mention the fact that as long as the Sox are relevant they make money. They don’t have to be juggernauts.
This is exactly correct. Nobody was expecting true championship contention this year. What the goal was to stay relevant and hope for some breaks going their way. Unfortunately, the team has had some bad breaks (Story, and now Sale) and other challenges. But they need to find out what they have in Cassas, and if that means going through some growing pains so be it. It's not like he's taking a valued roster spot that is blocking an All Star from getting innings at first base.
I am starting to have concerns. He looks like he is starting to press and his at-bats don't seem as competitive as they were earlier in the season. I hope it is a rut he can get out of sooner than later.
They put his stats with no runners on the big board earlier, which made me pause. He is coming up even smaller with runners on.
This actually makes me a little more hopeful. Assuming it's not just SSS noise, it suggests that his approach is actually working when the bases are empty and that he's actively getting in his own way with runners on. If he's pressing/trying to do too much particularly with runners on, that suggests to a problem that is likely easier to solve than something that's more fundamental.
I'm with you. He does not look confident up there. In fact he looks lost. A month or two in AAA when Duvall returns is probably the best way to go.
Interesting way of looking at it. I've reached the point where I'm envisioning Devers at 1B long term, Story at third, Mayer at SS, Yorke at 2B. Yoshida DH, Duran, Verdugo and Rafaela in the OF.
If we are concerned that Story doesn't have the arm strength/health for SS, why on earth would we put him at 3B?
Nope. Not at all. Casas may become a fine player - and he's looking better in game 2 today against the Rays. But I prefer this combination of players, and specifically Rafaela's elite defense, in my projections.
Red Sox don't seem concerned about his arm strength. Cross that bridge when we come to it. Love his power and athleticism. Gotta play him somewhere. Yorke is 2B only, from what I understand.
I wanted to believe this but starting to worry. His approach seems a fairly defensive one where he’s looking for a not-out. He protects the plate and doesn’t chase, which works Ok overall (for still small samples!) but with RISP the pitcher attacks the zone. A instinct to keep the bat on his shoulder and work a walk isn’t as effective an approach then.
John Smoltz (yes I know) actually said something the other night that made some sense. Hitting the ball "the other way" when it's not just being late on a fastball requires letting the ball get a little deeper which, in turn, requires some confidence. Thus, whether he should've swuing at the low outside pitch, rolling it over like that is the opposite of "letting it travel." Seems like a cousin of what you describe as looking for a not-out.
The whole Red Sox infield defense is terrible. The Red Sox lead the AL in errors. Not just Casas.
His defense worries more than his bat. I think the bat will come around to at least not be a net negative but I'm not convinced he can actually play 1B, his instincts just seem poor and I'm not sure how you fix that. Sure the INF isn't helping him at all but I've never seen someone whiff so badly on balls thrown in the dirt besides Dalbec. If he continues to be a butcher in the field, currently leading MLB 1B with -6 DRS, I don't think the bat will carry him to a positive WAR. Perhaps you can DH him at some point but Yoshida is quickly headed to DH status as well and Devers may eventually end up there as well. Point being this team has a lot of DHs and not a lot of capable fielders.
Casas turns into JBJ when there are runners on. Actually, that is an insult to Jackie who slashed 210/257/321/578 for Boston last year.
13 of Kike's 14 errors have come on throws. Some were totally airmailed, but some were catchable. If the Red Sox had John Olerud at first, the entire infield defense would look significantly better. Learning how to pick bad throws better should be a top priority for Casas right now.
The 1bman's "stretch and swipe" on balls in the dirt always looks cool, but it doesn't seem terribly efficient to be moving the glove like that, as opposed to fielding it like a fielder. Get your glove down.
Do most competent 1B make that pick on Kike’s throw last night? I would suggest yes, but that was almost exclusively on Kike. Routine ground ball, no need to rush and he spikes it. Ridiculous. I hate being a big market team and having to trot out my starting CF at SS everyday.
Casas should be refining his approach with men on base. Because he has the raw talent - but his dramatic splits indicate something's off.
While he certainly can improve at 1B defensively, it's a bit much to say that as a rookie he should be both learning to hit, and focusing on upping his defensive game to account for a fan-favorite vet's deficiencies.
Because one seems to be mental and the other physical. You can practice taking throws at first and get better at doing it. What can he do between games to stop tightening up with runners on?