What's the point? Celtics guard gap and offseason options.

[Eddie Jurak]

Correct--there's a reason teams rarely extract huge value in S&Ts. It's a very player-friendly process. In the very, very worst case for the player, he signs a wink-wink deal with a bad under-the-cap team that agrees to trade him to his first choice team in Jan.

Of course, everyone knows the player has that option and others, so the game theory plays out such that the player ends up where he wants, with some light assets changing hands (up to a low 1st or two).

Yes. I'll be skeptical that Beal would identify Boston as his preferred destination until it actually happens though.

 

[Cellar-Door]

You keep talking about how Beal has been in decline for the last couple years. Now go look at his 2020-2021 stats, normal and advanced. Dude was putting up 59% TS on 34 usage *one year ago*. He's not an inefficient volume scorer.

On offense, there simply isn't a multiyear decline. There is an injury-plagued 2021-22.

Now, it's reasonable to ask whether those injuries will continue, and also to question Beal's fit and D, but your multiyear decline narrative is factually incorrect.

2019-20 was another off year, and the 3 year period is one where his 3pt shooting tailed off relative to the league, his defense tailed off, and in 2020 his 3PAr cratered compared to the league. 2020-21 was better than 2019-20, but the whole league was way up (57% TS), and he rode the wave. It's not a significant trail off, but his last 3 years show some concerning signs. Maybe it's nothing and he turns it around, but I was comparing him with Dame who despite being 3 years older and who had a similarly injury filled year has been the model of consistency the last 3 years.

Correct--there's a reason teams rarely extract huge value in S&Ts. It's a very player-friendly process. In the very, very worst case for the player, he signs a wink-wink deal with a bad under-the-cap team that agrees to trade him to his first choice team in Jan.

Of course, everyone knows the player has that option and others, so the game theory plays out such that the player ends up where he wants, with some light assets changing hands (up to a low 1st or two).

The Celtics will almost certainly not S&T for Beal, it would hard cap them and given they are already at the hard cap line, that would mean sending out close to $45M in salary for Beal. The only (unlikely) situation in which the Celtics could get Beal this summer is if he opts in to his deal then we trade something like Horford and Theis for him.

 

[lexrageorge]

The Celtics will almost certainly not S&T for Beal, it would hard cap them and given they are already at the hard cap line, that would mean sending out close to $45M in salary for Beal. The only (unlikely) situation in which the Celtics could get Beal this summer is if he opts in to his deal then we trade something like Horford and Theis for him.

The only way it happens, and it may have been noted in another thread, is if all of the following happen:

1.) Beal tells the Wizards that he will either walk via free agency or opt-in to accept a trade to Boston.

2.) Stevens decides Beal is worth the price and is willing to unofficially mention a promise of a new contract to his agent over a fancy dinner.

3.) The Wizards are willing to go along. To be honest, they probably would be given the alternative is Beal walking for nothing.

Agree that evidence that #1 is real is at best shaky, and I'm not convinced Stevens bites for the reasons that have been mentioned by the more astute basketball minds in this forum.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Celtics will almost certainly not S&T for Beal, it would hard cap them and given they are already at the hard cap line, that would mean sending out close to $45M in salary for Beal. The only (unlikely) situation in which the Celtics could get Beal this summer is if he opts in to his deal then we trade something like Horford and Theis for him.

Given Beal’s contact situation, this type of deal would be very similar to a S&T from Washington’s perspective. With an S&T, the trading team is getting paid for doing the acquiring team a cap favor, not for the value of the traded player.

Here, the Wizards would be getting paid for sending Beal where he wants to go rather than cutting him loose to go UFA.

I’m very skeptical that Beal would tell his agent “only Boston,” but if he did the deal would happen.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Is there any evidence that Beal wants out of Washington or is this all speculation based on some Vegas odds?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Is there any evidence that Beal wants out of Washington or is this all speculation based on some Vegas odds?

All speculation. Wizards fans I know continue to say everything they hear/see suggests he is extending there.

As an aside, those odds do not include him staying with Wizards do they? That is a bit surprising and makes it hard to assess what they mean----because Celtics being "favorite" if he leaves is only relevant to degree he does leave.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

2019-20 was another off year, and the 3 year period is one where his 3pt shooting tailed off relative to the league, his defense tailed off, and in 2020 his 3PAr cratered compared to the league. 2020-21 was better than 2019-20, but the whole league was way up (57% TS), and he rode the wave. It's not a significant trail off, but his last 3 years show some concerning signs. Maybe it's nothing and he turns it around, but I was comparing him with Dame who despite being 3 years older and who had a similarly injury filled year has been the model of consistency the last 3 years.


The Celtics will almost certainly not S&T for Beal, it would hard cap them and given they are already at the hard cap line, that would mean sending out close to $45M in salary for Beal. The only (unlikely) situation in which the Celtics could get Beal this summer is if he opts in to his deal then we trade something like Horford and Theis for him.

Yeah it would def be a buy-low situation for many of these reasons as Jaylen isn’t going anywhere after he and Jayson just made the NBA Finals. Like you said, if would take a lot of posturing and manuevering with a contract, a reasonable player to step in immediately for minutes along with future assets (Begarin, picks, etc)

 

[Cellar-Door]

Given Beal’s contact situation, this type of deal would be very similar to a S&T from Washington’s perspective. With an S&T, the trading team is getting paid for doing the acquiring team a cap favor, not for the value of the traded player.

Here, the Wizards would be getting paid for sending Beal where he wants to go rather than cutting him loose to go UFA.

I’m very skeptical that Beal would tell his agent “only Boston,” but if he did the deal would happen.

Yeah, maybe, but it counts on ;
1. Beal saying nowhere but Boston.
2. Beal taking a big paycut
3. The Wizards preferring what you send back over having cap space (they can actually free up a lot if Beal opted out)
4. Beal having a real threat to sign elsewhere (which also means taking a paycut).

Is there any evidence that Beal wants out of Washington or is this all speculation based on some Vegas odds?

Not really no, what indications he's given were a few months ago, but also sounded like he intended to re-sign. Just odds and some videos reminding people that Beal and Tatum are tight.


I think this all is coming down to Beal doing what a lot of guys do:

He's gonna sign the biggest 5 year max he can with WAS, and if they stink he'll start dropping hints he wants out next year.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

Aside from the Tatum connection, Beal really doesn't interest me. He's CJ McCollum but older and more expensive. If you wanted that, you would have traded for CJ last year.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Aside from the Tatum connection, Beal really doesn't interest me. He's CJ McCollum but older and more expensive. If you wanted that, you would have traded for CJ last year.

he's a year younger than McCollum, but otherwise not that far off

 

[Eddie Jurak]

He's gonna sign the biggest 5 year max he can with WAS, and if they stink he'll start dropping hints he wants out next year.

OK, so this is the only point that matters. Is Washington, fresh off the John Wall experience, willing to go 5-year max with Beal? If not, where do they draw the line.

Washington does have a real advantage is paying Beal if that is what they choose to do.

If Washington isn’t going to go there, leading Beal to want out, then it is a question of where he wants to go and whether that is Boston.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Aside from the Tatum connection, Beal really doesn't interest me. He's CJ McCollum but older and more expensive. If you wanted that, you would have traded for CJ last year.

He’s actually younger. Either way, CJ on this roster and we just attended a parade. Not sure how that comp is a bad thing but CJ had no Celtic connections or way to force his way here.