What's going on with Rodriguez?

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Aug 25, 2021

I would think our 30th ranked defensive efficiency is a big reason why ERod isn't close to his FIP numbers. But I'd have to look at GB/FB tendencies before being more sure about that assumption.

joe dokes · Aug 25, 2021

A simple answer for me comes from the statuesque defenders behind him. The Sox are last (by a relatively significant margin) in turning batted balls into outs.

EDIT: Beaten to that punch by SJH.

barbed wire Bob · Aug 25, 2021

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I would think our 30th ranked defensive efficiency is a big reason why ERod isn't close to his FIP numbers. But I'd have to look at GB/FB tendencies before being more sure about that assumption.

That was my first thought as well. The defense behind him isn’t doing him any favors.

phenweigh · Aug 25, 2021

If bad defense was the major reason for Erod's unique ERA/FIP gap, all the Sox pitchers would have a similar ERA/FIP gap. It must be more complicated.

BaseballJones · Aug 25, 2021

phenweigh said:
If bad defense was the major reason for Erod's unique ERA/FIP gap, all the Sox pitchers would have a similar ERA/FIP gap. It must be more complicated.

Not necessarily. These things sometimes work in bunches, kind of like run support. Some pitchers (in some years) get a lot of it while other pitchers get very little. Doesn't need to be an even distribution.

Red(s)HawksFan · Aug 25, 2021

phenweigh said:
If bad defense was the major reason for Erod's unique ERA/FIP gap, all the Sox pitchers would have a similar ERA/FIP gap. It must be more complicated.

Not necessarily. Distribution of defensive efficiency isn't uniform. In the same way one pitcher on a staff can get 7 runs of support from the same offense that gives another pitcher 3 runs of support per start.

pokey_reese · Aug 25, 2021

Looks like his batted ball type (LD/GB/FB) rates are relatively close to career norms, as are hard hit %, barrel %, and exit velocity. So it's not the quality of contact per se that is getting him. Sequencing has to be in there too, along with defense. One overlooked part of sequencing though, has to be the Ks that he is getting. His WHIP is up and strand rate down, as pointed out, in part because of the high BABIP, so part of the issue inherently is that he isn't getting the Ks when he needs them to end the inning, but after a few of those unlucky hits. Look at the similarity between 2019 and this year (and his career):

Honestly, everything BUT the outcome data suggests that he is almost identical to 2019 and the past few years, in terms of pitch mix, contact rates, batted ball metrics, and everything else. He might just be having an incredibly unlucky season at the worst possible time.

Petagine in a Bottle · Aug 25, 2021

He’s definitely been unlucky but I don’t think the 3.31 FIP seems realistic either. It kind of seems like he should be ~4 ERA which is what he’s generally always been. He’s averaging <5 innings per start, which is pretty bad. Feels like a lot of deep counts and while the strikeouts are great, his inability to get quick outs increases his pitch count. His slugging allowed is +9% higher than his career averages, but I guess that’s largely driven by the higher average on balls in play.

He’s only 28, you have to think his performance this year has depressed his value but I imagine he’ll still get better offers than whatever the Sox will be willing to make. I’d imagine they offer arbitration and get a little nervous that he might take it.

Philip Jeff Frye · Aug 25, 2021

Discrepancies between advanced metrics and observed "reality" like this that are so extreme really call into question the methodology of such metrics. The guy has been terrible - there is no conceivable way he's a top 30 pitcher this year, even if he's the most snake-bit person on the planet. Jeez, what are the odds - virtually the only professional athlete I can think of who had serious complications from Covid one year and then by far the unluckiest player in baseball the next? I'm a big believer in the value of sabermetrics and so on, but this case seems so extreme as to defy rationale explanation.

BringBackMo · Aug 25, 2021

Rodriguez has been terrible for stretches and also very good to excellent for others. It’s an inconsistency that 1. Probably does speak to complications from his serious covid case 2. Probably does raise the possibility that his underlying stuff has been better than some of his outcomes would otherwise suggest.

His numbers were quite good in April:
4 starts, 23 ip, 26 Ks, 3.52 era

Terrible in May:
6 starts, 29.2 ip, 32 Ks, 7.28 era

Terrible in June:
5 starts, 26 ip, 35 Ks, 6.23 era

Not very good in July:
5 starts, 21 ip, 28Ks, 4.71 era

Very good in August with the exception of his last start:
4 starts, 20 ip, 27 Ks, 3.15 era

YTF · Aug 25, 2021

It's really hard to pinpoint the issue(s) with Rodriquez. Lingering affects from Covid? Sure that could be part of things. Shitty defense being played behind him? It certainly doesn't help, but let's remember who Rodrigiuez has been for a good portion of his career. While he's had flashes of brilliance, Eduardo's has in the past often been a pitcher with a 90+ pitch count in the 5th inning. It hasn't been uncommon for him in seasons past to struggle in early innings and fall behind hitters in the count. Maybe he gives up a few runs and in the process getting perhaps 8Ks, but before you know it he's headed to the showers after getting 15 outs or less. Not every game, but often. Is it just possible that he may be regressing?

sean1562 · Aug 25, 2021

He has a relatively small sample size but a lot of his good to great starts have come against the dregs of the league. Pull his 16 innings against the 38-86 Orioles out of his stats and his season line is significantly less pretty. Third time through the order opponents are hitting .295/.367/.625/.992 against him.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=rodried05&t=p&year=2021

I know everyone gets to play the Orioles and there is a bit of "if you pull the good games out of his stats he is terrible!!" in this post but when those "good games" are the only thing keeping his ERA from being atrocious it seems fair to note. To be fair, he as also pitched pretty well against the Yankees, 18 innings, 24 Ks, 6 ERs. He is just a really frustrating guy to have as he always seems like he should be performing better than he is. If they are gonna shell out $18 mil plus on a risky pitcher in the offseason, I would rather just get Syndegaard or something for a year.

edit: Here are his game logs with the ERA and FIP for each game

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eduardo-rodriguez/13164/game-log?position=P&season=

I didn't watch the last game against Texas(12.27 ERA and 2.36 FIP) that he pitched but the general consensus on the game thread was not that he was unlucky but that he was bad. He has a few short games this season that totally destroy his ERA but actually help his FIP numbers(7/29 against Toronto, 6/15 against Atlanta, 5/18 against Toronto).

Sprowl · Aug 25, 2021

When Edro v2015 first came up with the Red Sox, he showed the ability consistently to bust the RHB up and in with 94 heat. In my off-the-cuff observation of Edro v2021, he seems to have lost the ability to back the hitter off the plate. He has lost some velocity on the fastball, without gaining any command to compensate.

phenweigh · Aug 25, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Not necessarily. These things sometimes work in bunches, kind of like run support. Some pitchers (in some years) get a lot of it while other pitchers get very little. Doesn't need to be an even distribution.

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Not necessarily. Distribution of defensive efficiency isn't uniform. In the same way one pitcher on a staff can get 7 runs of support from the same offense that gives another pitcher 3 runs of support per start.

Fair enough. I'll change my opinion from must be more complicated to probably more complicated. Erod's K/9 this season is over 11, so on average the defense only needs to turn two batted balls into outs per inning. It's hard for me to imagine that bad defense is the only reason for his unique ERA/FIP discrepancy. My unscientific observation is he generally either has really good innings or really bad innings, and mediocre innings are not as common. I suspect offensive distribution has more to do with the discrepancy than defensive distribution. Is he bad out of the stretch?

pokey_reese · Aug 26, 2021

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Discrepancies between advanced metrics and observed "reality" like this that are so extreme really call into question the methodology of such metrics. The guy has been terrible - there is no conceivable way he's a top 30 pitcher this year, even if he's the most snake-bit person on the planet. Jeez, what are the odds - virtually the only professional athlete I can think of who had serious complications from Covid one year and then by far the unluckiest player in baseball the next? I'm a big believer in the value of sabermetrics and so on, but this case seems so extreme as to defy rationale explanation.

So, here's the thing. You can take exception to the findings of the advanced stats and sabermetrics. But you have to acknowledge the fact that the non-advanced metrics are telling the same story. K rate, fastball velocity, swinging strike rate, etc. these are not advanced metrics at all, they are simple granular measurements of all the pitches he has thrown and the batted ball results, and they are all virtually identical to 2019, which was his best year based on outcomes. At some point, you should probably consider that it isn't the sabermetrics that are wrong, but the old stats that they disagree with, and that ERA and wins are much more prone to swings in luck. Remember, the advanced metrics aren't denying the observed reality of whether a run scored, just pointing out that it was unlucky that the run scored, and that a pitcher who threw that pitch in that situation that way would expect a better outcome.

joe dokes · Aug 26, 2021

One thing to remember is that the defense as compared to 2019 isnt going from average to bad; or great to average. It's going from above average to absolutely shitty. I can ignore errors. But no one seems to have any "plus" range. I know this doesn't pass any sort of analytical rigor, but it *seems* like there's been an inordinate number of bloops and bleeders. Shit happens, and some of those are just not playable at all. But I think some even average defenders turn a lot of them into outs.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Aug 26, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1430746473029939201?s=20

The defense is a huge "we need to trade Nomar" level of a problem.

Rovin Romine · Aug 26, 2021

pokey_reese said:
Remember, the advanced metrics aren't denying the observed reality of whether a run scored, just pointing out that it was unlucky that the run scored, and that a pitcher who threw that pitch in that situation that way would expect a better outcome.

There's certainly an element of "luck" or randomness to the different outcomes of Erod's performance from 2019 to 2021. However, if it were only luck that drove different outcomes, we'd see swings like this more often in pitching and hitting. If it were only fielding, we'd probably see evidence of that in Eovaldi's 2021 numbers.

In general, yes, a pitcher with a good arsenal will be successful. But we've seen pitchers who have failed to harness their potential, and others who have good performances with substandard offerings. We've seen guys be successful in certain roles, and melt down in others - throwing the exact same pitches.

At the most granular level, every pitch is thrown in a specific context to a specific batter, who may be in the process of adjusting to the established patterns of the pitcher. If Erod does not have a feel for a pitch on a given day, it may be more hittable. Or he may rely on other pitches, which become more hittable. Or he and his catcher may make a mental mistake and pitch to a batter's strengths instead of weaknesses. Or simply get too predictable. I don't believe any of this can be easily quantified given the changing variables.

I see no reason why Erod, even with a similar complement of pitches, couldn't simply have pitched badly, given those particular situations.

joe dokes · Aug 26, 2021

[

nvalvo said:
The following is team fielding % (MLB rank). These numbers incorporate scoring information on chances and errors, and thus have some subjectivity to them:

2018 .987 (7)
2019 .985 (9)
2020 .979 (28)
2021 .981 (29)

Here's defensive efficiency, which is basically (but not exactly) just 1-BABIP:

2018 .693 (13)
2019 .673 (26)
2020 .647 (29)
2021 .655 (30)

What stands out to me here is the discrepancy in evaluations of the 2019 team.

That's not really a discrepancy. The 2019 numbers say that they cleanly handled most of what they got to, but they just didn't get to as many as 25 other teams. (That's your sure-handed, but statuesque, middle infielder. Call him "Jerek Dieter.") That's not optimal, but this year it's *both* not getting to balls, and screwing up the (relatively) few that they do get to.

RobertS975 · Aug 26, 2021

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Discrepancies between advanced metrics and observed "reality" like this that are so extreme really call into question the methodology of such metrics. The guy has been terrible - there is no conceivable way he's a top 30 pitcher this year, even if he's the most snake-bit person on the planet. Jeez, what are the odds - virtually the only professional athlete I can think of who had serious complications from Covid one year and then by far the unluckiest player in baseball the next? I'm a big believer in the value of sabermetrics and so on, but this case seems so extreme as to defy rationale explanation.

This was exactly what I felt as I went through this thread. "Trust your lying eyes!"

pokey_reese · Aug 26, 2021

Rovin Romine said:
There's certainly an element of "luck" or randomness to the different outcomes of Erod's performance from 2019 to 2021. However, if it were only luck that drove different outcomes, we'd see swings like this more often in pitching and hitting. If it were only fielding, we'd probably see evidence of that in Eovaldi's 2021 numbers.

In general, yes, a pitcher with a good arsenal will be successful. But we've seen pitchers who have failed to harness their potential, and others who have good performances with substandard offerings. We've seen guys be successful in certain roles, and melt down in others - throwing the exact same pitches.

At the most granular level, every pitch is thrown in a specific context to a specific batter, who may be in the process of adjusting to the established patterns of the pitcher. If Erod does not have a feel for a pitch on a given day, it may be more hittable. Or he may rely on other pitches, which become more hittable. Or he and his catcher may make a mental mistake and pitch to a batter's strengths instead of weaknesses. Or simply get too predictable. I don't believe any of this can be easily quantified given the changing variables.

I see no reason why Erod, even with a similar complement of pitches, couldn't simply have pitched badly, given those particular situations.

I don't think you are quite accounting for the luck/randomness factor here. Also, we aren't talking about a good arsenal, or potential. We have actual measurements of the pitches that he DID throw, and the batted ball outcomes that they DID get, and they are the same as the outcomes he got in the season when he was at his most valuable. The problem is that you are looking at the result (runs, losses, whatever) and making the determination that because those results were bad, he pitched badly. We know that in fact his pitches didn't become more hittable, because of things like contact rate, barrels, exit velocity, and so on. The frequency with which batters are making contact this year, and the quality of that contact, is unchanged.

What we do know is that the same pitch and contact numbers that led to 3.7 WAR and a 3.81 ERA in 2019, have led to worse results this year, because balls in play are not being converted to outs at the same rate (which can be a result of defense, or luck in terms of fielder positioning and hit location) leading to the extremely high BABIP, and the sequencing of 'bad' outcomes on balls in play (which all the studies I have seen suggest is not a skill or controllable by pitchers) is leading to low strand rates and therefore more runs crossing the plate. Obviously, the latter is also impacted by the former.

If he was not executing his pitches, or harnessing his stuff, or becoming too predictable in his patterns, or any of those things you had suggested at a granular level, that should be reflected in the underlying data, and it is not. Batters aren't hitting him harder, period. They aren't missing his pitches less, or forcing him to pitch out of the zone more, or anything like that. It's super frustrating, I'm with you there, but we have a lot of the granular data, and it just isn't painting the picture that you suggest, and in fact refutes it. Extreme bad luck, to this point, is actually the best explanation that I can see in this data. Such things should be rare over the long run, but they are also pretty much guaranteed to happen to someone, it just sucks if it is our pitcher.

Rovin Romine · Aug 26, 2021

pokey_reese said:
The frequency with which batters are making contact this year, and the quality of that contact, is unchanged.

I'd be curious to see your numbers. Per baseball savant, https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eduardo-rodriguez-593958?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His pitch mix has actually changed, and the speeds and break on his pitches are different than in 2019. Not massively so, but it's not like it's a constant. In terms of batted balls, he's giving up more solid contact. More line drives, solidly hit balls and barrels.

In terms of outcomes, HRs, walks, and Ks seem to align between 2019 and 2021, but per Bref, this year he's given up more doubles, 35 so far, v. 30 for all last year. That seems to be the biggest difference in outcomes between 2019 and 2021:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05-pitch.shtml#pitching_batting

Here are the doubles outcomes from Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eduardo-rodriguez-593958?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-statcast&season=2021&gamelogs_event=double&gamelogs_direction=&gamelogs_pitchtypes=&gamelogs_view=statcastGameLogs

Nothing leaps out at me. Seems to be a mix of all fields, off all types of pitches. A bit of sorting suggests the majority of his 2021 doubles are on fastballs/sinkers/cutters under 93.0 mph and under. 22 this v. 15 last year. In particular the sinker - he's throwing it less in terms of percentage than in 2019, but they're teeing off on it more.

Maybe hitters are sitting on his slower FB offerings.

If you think it's the defense, you could click on those videos to see if the defense is implicated in some way (like a shift), or if they're wall balls. Might tell you something.

Last thought - Erod's entire career had a JBJ/MB outfield. Maybe what we're seeing now is normal for his pitching style. Or maybe his true outcome level is somewhere in between.

koufax37 · Aug 26, 2021

For me this is eerily similar to Lester's 2012, which was also his 28 year old season (like ERod)

In that year as he put up a 4.82 (in 33 starts and 205 IP) and:
Lester's H/9 jumped up (8.6,8.2,7.2,7.8, ***9.5***) while his HR9 went up slightly, his walks trended down a little and his Ks trended down.
ERod has been consistent with his HR, better with his BB and K, but that H/9 is where the jump is.

As myself a retired LHP who got paid (little) to pitch (poorly) over a bunch of years, I remember watching many Lester starts and not being bullish on him, or his ability to return to value from his replacement level performance, and at the time, I felt he had gotten lazy and not dedicated to his craft, and what decision making and command was necessary to thrive as he had is first phase of diminished stuff in the pitcher aging process. I was wrong and he reestablished himself for a string of valuable seasons with a 2017 hangover before his recent trend into sub-replacement.

But in the process, the only Ross we had on that team was Cody, and he emerged again with David, and being a much more focused and successful at executing battery (not sure if is a jockey/thoroughbred dynamic, or communicating partnership). Similarly his 2017 struggles followed David Ross's retirement, and their bond clearly was a big part of his success for whatever reasons.

There isn't a David Ross element for ERod, and with his other rates being fine, we circle in to that H/9. Without the HR/9 going up it is hard to tell (and better peripheral numbers might make sense of it), but I think that the defense matters especially with some pretty big names moving on from our outfield the last two years. I haven't seen as obvious an issue with his command, pitch selection, etc for the eye test, but I imagine the combination of bad BABIP luck and worsening outfield defense has hit him harder than other pitchers in this season.

pokey_reese · Aug 26, 2021

Rovin Romine said:
I'd be curious to see your numbers. Per baseball savant, https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eduardo-rodriguez-593958?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His pitch mix has actually changed, and the speeds and break on his pitches are different than in 2019. Not massively so, but it's not like it's a constant. In terms of batted balls, he's giving up more solid contact. More line drives, solidly hit balls and barrels.

In terms of outcomes, HRs, walks, and Ks seem to align between 2019 and 2021, but per Bref, this year he's given up more doubles, 35 so far, v. 30 for all last year. That seems to be the biggest difference in outcomes between 2019 and 2021:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05-pitch.shtml#pitching_batting

Here are the doubles outcomes from Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eduardo-rodriguez-593958?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-statcast&season=2021&gamelogs_event=double&gamelogs_direction=&gamelogs_pitchtypes=&gamelogs_view=statcastGameLogs

Nothing leaps out at me. Seems to be a mix of all fields, off all types of pitches. A bit of sorting suggests the majority of his 2021 doubles are on fastballs/sinkers/cutters under 93.0 mph and under. 22 this v. 15 last year. In particular the sinker - he's throwing it less in terms of percentage than in 2019, but they're teeing off on it more.

Maybe hitters are sitting on his slower FB offerings.

If you think it's the defense, you could click on those videos to see if the defense is implicated in some way (like a shift), or if they're wall balls. Might tell you something.

Last thought - Erod's entire career had a JBJ/MB outfield. Maybe what we're seeing now is normal for his pitching style. Or maybe his true outcome level is somewhere in between.

So, now we are getting into the interesting nitty-gritty. First, here are the numbers I was looking at, from Fangraphs (sorry for the formatting). Contact Numbers:

Pitch Velocities:

Pitch Selection:

Contact Rates:

There is a small amount of variation in these, but looking at his career numbers, it's less than the normal year-to-year shift. Pitch selection stuff is going to be a little wonky from site to site, since it is inferred, rather than some sort of historical record, and in this case, I don't think the change in velocity on the fastball from 93.1 to 92.8 is likely to make much of a difference. The doubles rate you highlight is interesting, but that could very easily be attributable to the positioning and ability of the outfielders, rather than anything different that EdRo is doing. I do think that having a huge downgrade in OF defense could impact a guy like him who gives up a decent number of LD/FBs, especially given that he isn't walking more guys or giving up more home runs, so the normal 'three true outcomes' shift hasn't been his problem.

Rovin Romine · Aug 26, 2021

pokey_reese said:
So, now we are getting into the interesting nitty-gritty. First, here are the numbers I was looking at, from Fangraphs (sorry for the formatting).

FWIW, the Savant numbers are based on statcast. They also have a breakdown of how well each pitch is hit, year to year.

Erods numbers might look similar when aggregating all pitches, but the more specific breakdown might suggest something to you.

pokey_reese · Aug 27, 2021

Rovin Romine said:
FWIW, the Savant numbers are based on statcast. They also have a breakdown of how well each pitch is hit, year to year.

Erods numbers might look similar when aggregating all pitches, but the more specific breakdown might suggest something to you.

Using numbers from the same source will definitely help, thanks! One thing jumping out from that data is that the range of distributions for changeup velocity is much wider and flatter, which would be creating more separation from his FB and cutter this year, but also suggesting less consistency in the way he is throwing it, or potentially just a classification error. For what it's worth, Fangraphs is also using the Statcast data, though I note that at the top of the page savant is reporting them as percentile ranks, versus absolute values. So it's possible that Rodriguez could be throwing exactly as he did in 2019, but has worse percentile ranks because other pitchers have improved?

joe dokes · Aug 27, 2021

pokey_reese said:
Using numbers from the same source will definitely help, thanks! One thing jumping out from that data is that the range of distributions for changeup velocity is much wider and flatter, which would be creating more separation from his FB and cutter this year, but also suggesting less consistency in the way he is throwing it, or potentially just a classification error. For what it's worth, Fangraphs is also using the Statcast data, though I note that at the top of the page savant is reporting them as percentile ranks, versus absolute values. So it's possible that Rodriguez could be throwing exactly as he did in 2019, but has worse percentile ranks because other pitchers have improved?

I have not taken a dive into the data, but I do recall that changeup-FB separation was a topic that he, Cora and Bush have all discussed at various times this season. Perhaps the drive to add more separation has resulted in some decreased effectiveness.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Aug 27, 2021

Regarding Lester's 2012, I would bet a zillion dollars that he checked out of that season, along with many others, because of the horribleness of having Bobby Valentine as a manager. No it's not professional of him but I cannot blame him in the slightest.

Rovin Romine · Aug 27, 2021

pokey_reese said:
For what it's worth, Fangraphs is also using the Statcast data, though I note that at the top of the page savant is reporting them as percentile ranks, versus absolute values. So it's possible that Rodriguez could be throwing exactly as he did in 2019, but has worse percentile ranks because other pitchers have improved?

I don't know about the percentages, but the absolute numbers can be found lower on the page. Also, the gamelog/statcast tab shows every AB result and lets you sort them or select for specific outcomes.

You can always try to parse it this way: Erod is basically (as of today) 18 ER worse than he was in 2019. (Subtracting 18 ER gives him close to a 3.8 ERA for his 119 innings this year.)

Erod's pitching significantly more inside the zone this year. Overall his barrel % is up, and his hard hit % is way up. It's like he's becoming more of a two outcome pitcher: More Ks, slightly less BBs, but he's trading off more hard hit contact to get there. (That may be something he's doing or a lead wide hitter philosophy change, but it's there.) This is why FIP is kind of illusory - you can perform better on the stats components while allowing harder contact and more hits. At some point it's not a good tradeoff.

I really do think your best bet is to look at the doubles. In 2019 he gave up 30 for the whole year, 6 of which were barreled. So far he's given up 35 doubles, 11 of which were barreled. (Pro rate that to his 2019 IP number (203) and you get: 60 doubles, 31 of which are barreled.)

(FWIW, 2017 Rick Porcello, 54 doubles in 203 innings. Though he had other issues. Or every issue.)

So while the average on pitch outcomes may look the same from a higher elevation, he's clearly getting hit harder in some key circumstances. The outcome of those harder hit balls may turn on the defense, but they are being hit harder. To the extent you can identify game impact, or distinguish between 2019 catchable and simply uncatchable, it might give you a bead on what's happening.

SSS and all that.

Cesar Crespo · Oct 2, 2021

How do the last 2 months have an impact on his future going forward with the Red Sox?

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Oct 2, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
How do the last 2 months have an impact on his future going forward with the Red Sox?

I think this is going to be fascinating. I don't see him getting a monster contract off of this year, despite the overall peripherals, but the FA pitching market is uninspiring. I'd like him back on a QO.

Petagine in a Bottle · Oct 2, 2021

He’s 28, and has a career record of 63-39, with a 110 ERA+, 3.83 fip, and over a strikeout per inning. For pitchers 28 or younger, only Aaron Nola has more career wins. I think he gets paid, I would think a 6-7 year deal at like 17-18m per, at least. He can be maddening but there just aren’t a ton of good young pitchers available via free agency and I think there will be a strong market for him. He finished the season strong too.

I would think the Sox would be interested but haven’t heard of any attempts by the team to resign him, so I expect them to get outbid.

grimshaw · Oct 2, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
He’s 28, and has a career record of 63-39, with a 110 ERA+, 3.83 fip, and over a strikeout per inning. For pitchers 28 or younger, only Aaron Nola has more career wins. I think he gets paid, I would think a 6-7 year deal at like 17-18m per, at least. He can be maddening but there just aren’t a ton of good young pitchers available via free agency and I think there will be a strong market for him. He finished the season strong too.

I would think the Sox would be interested but haven’t heard of any attempts by the team to resign him, so I expect them to get outbid.

I think he'll get paid too but would be surprised if he got more than 5. He has been in a brutal division for a long time and could flirt with a few all-star seasons in 3 other divisions.

I'm QO or bust and think we'd net someone.

Van Everyman · Oct 2, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
He’s 28, and has a career record of 63-39, with a 110 ERA+, 3.83 fip, and over a strikeout per inning. For pitchers 28 or younger, only Aaron Nola has more career wins. I think he gets paid, I would think a 6-7 year deal at like 17-18m per, at least. He can be maddening but there just aren’t a ton of good young pitchers available via free agency and I think there will be a strong market for him. He finished the season strong too.

I would think the Sox would be interested but haven’t heard of any attempts by the team to resign him, so I expect them to get outbid.

Speier just reported that the Sox tried to talk to him about an extension earlier in the year but tabled conversations:

Rodriguez’s future has been on his mind at least a little bit during season, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported Friday that Rodriguez and the Sox “had cursory discussions about an extension earlier this year but made no real headway and tabled conversations.” Notably, the lefty switched agents in September, firing Octagon and hiring Gene Mato to represent him.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/10/eduardo-rodriguez-effective-in-potential-final-start-with-boston-red-sox-eddie-has-pitched-some-big-games-too-alex-cora-says.html

RedOctober3829 · Oct 2, 2021

Van Everyman said:
Speier just reported that the Sox tried to talk to him about an extension earlier in the year but tabled conversations:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/10/eduardo-rodriguez-effective-in-potential-final-start-with-boston-red-sox-eddie-has-pitched-some-big-games-too-alex-cora-says.html

I would let him go in FA. I don't think they should pay him big money as he's too much of a question mark. Do you get the last couple months ERod or do you get the one whose ERA was over 5? It's a very tough call.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Oct 2, 2021

RedOctober3829 said:
I would let him go in FA. I don't think they should pay him big money as he's too much of a question mark. Do you get the last couple months ERod or do you get the one whose ERA was over 5? It's a very tough call.

If you look beyond ERA it gets way trickier.

RedOctober3829 · Oct 2, 2021

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
If you look beyond ERA it gets way trickier.

Yeah definitely. Career low in walks per 9 and career high in K/9 this year. ERA of 4.77 but FIP of 3.33 which if that was his ERA would be top 20 in the AL. Does improved defense get him over the hump next year? Very tough call.

Petagine in a Bottle · Oct 2, 2021

Really all depends on what they plan to do with Houck and / or Whitlock. Assume Sale, Eovaldi, and Pivetta are locked in to three spots. You’ve got Seabold and Crawford as depth at AAA. So you probably want to sign at least one more guy. Could be EdRo, maybe they re-up Perez (ugh).

Other FA starters include Gausman, Scherzer, Rodon, Greinke, Miley, Stroman, Ray, Duffy, Bundy, Wood, Kikuchi, Matz, Kluber, Paxton, Carlos Martinez, Verlander, and Teheran. Not a terrible group; could see the Sox taking a look at several of these guys.

radsoxfan · Oct 2, 2021

RedOctober3829 said:
Yeah definitely. Career low in walks per 9 and career high in K/9 this year. ERA of 4.77 but FIP of 3.33 which if that was his ERA would be top 20 in the AL. Does improved defense get him over the hump next year? Very tough call.

Seems to me he would have been a good buy-low FA back in the day when most front offices were less savvy. A 4.77 ERA undervalues his season for sure.

But if he's going to get paid on his peripherals and FIP, that's a much less exciting price.

I also am likely in the QO or bust group, barring a surprisingly team friendly long term deal.

BaseballJones · Oct 2, 2021

EdRo numbers of interest (to me):

BABIP: .366 (.312 career)
Hard hit ball %: 33.7% (33.7% career)
Line drive rate: 25.1% (25.1% career)
Avg Exit Velocity: 86.0 (86.7 career)
BB/9: 2.7 (3.1 career)

So he's been better this year than his career numbers in some key categories. Lower exit velocity than his career. Lower walk rate. And the same hard hit ball / line drive rate.

So what appears to have been happening to him this year is slightly softer contact than normal (for him), fewer walks, and yet higher BABIP. That indicates that he's been seriously unlucky this year.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Oct 2, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1444148427248504834?s=21

Cesar Crespo · Oct 2, 2021

BaseballJones said:
EdRo numbers of interest (to me):

BABIP: .366 (.312 career)
Hard hit ball %: 33.7% (33.7% career)
Line drive rate: 25.1% (25.1% career)
Avg Exit Velocity: 86.0 (86.7 career)
BB/9: 2.7 (3.1 career)

So he's been better this year than his career numbers in some key categories. Lower exit velocity than his career. Lower walk rate. And the same hard hit ball / line drive rate.

So what appears to have been happening to him this year is slightly softer contact than normal (for him), fewer walks, and yet higher BABIP. That indicates that he's been seriously unlucky this year.

It's the double. He's given up 41 this year. That's 8 more than his previous career high and if you even out PA, it's 3 more than any other season over the course of 672 PA.

It's more pronounced since 2018.

2018: 1 double every 31.3 PA
2019: 1 per 28.6 PA
2021: 1 per 16.4 PA

HR rates were 1/34.6, 1/35.8, 1/35.4.

Doubles are obviously a product of BAbip, I'm not sure how to isolate out ISO from luck though.

I don't have any point, just that he's given up a ton of doubles, like almost twice as many.

BaseballJones · Oct 2, 2021

Right, but overall, he's given up softer contact than his career norms. Long story short, his peripherals show that he's been pretty good actually.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Oct 3, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Right, but overall, he's given up softer contact than his career norms. Long story short, his peripherals show that he's been pretty good actually.

I’m with the QO. I suspect some team will offer him too much money or too many years like the Angels (good place for him). I really liked EdRo and will be a little sad when he’s gone. I still think the Sox hamstrung themselves with the Sale and Eovaldi deals.
but we have those two on the books as a good 1,2 and I’m a Houck Believer.
Add Seabold, Pivetta and Whitlock to the equation and they’re in good shape. I would ease Seabold into the 3-inning relief role until there’s an injury.

joe dokes · Oct 3, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Doubles are obviously a product of BAbip, I'm not sure how to isolate out ISO from luck though.

I don't have any point, just that he's given up a ton of doubles, like almost twice as many.

I dont think the impact of the defense behind him can be overstated.

Lose Remerswaal · Oct 3, 2021

QO was $18.9 million this past year. assume a little more next year. Wouldn’t folks prefer 3 years for $45 million?

Bosoxian · Oct 3, 2021

How much did losing jbj and Mookie behind him cost in the extra doubles?

What's going on with Rodriguez?

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