What's 1/3 of -$300M?: Barcelona 2022-2023

Zososoxfan

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Who knows what Barca can and can't spend this summer. On the one hand, Barca are way afoul of La Liga's FFP rules, and on the other hand...Spanish accounting practices. What we do know is that Barca can only spend 1/3 of any savings they make on new signings plus wages. So if FDJ is sold for $80M, the club can likely only spend $30-40M of those savings. What I don't know is whether any of the new revenue from stadium naming rights, shirt sponsors, ginormous loans, and other fund sources matter for Spanish FFP purposes.

Barca have reportedly already signed Kessie from AC Milan and Christensen from Chelsea on free transfers, but I don't think they've been registered yet. On top of that, Lewa is trying to shoot his way outta Munich and is saying he will only go to Barca, but his wages are north of $20M and even if Bayern accept only $20M as a transfer fee, that would require Barca to free up ~$120M to fit it all under FFP.

Going back to FDJ, it's a fascinating situation. He's one of the most talented players in the world IMO, but he really hasn't thrived at all since he arrived at Barca. I think both he and the club bear some responsibility for that. When he arrived, I thought he was the replacement for Busi in the 4-3-3, but at that time Busi was still pretty effective so they forced onto the field together awkwardly. It became pretty clear that FDJ would be best in his Ajax role as one of a double pivot with a more defensively-minded DMF next to him. However, that's a pretty specific role and I think that FDJ is and needs to be a bit more versatile than that. To that point, FDJ moonlighted in the backline and did very well there, but that was a bandaid and a bad use of his talent. It does say something that FDJ has not displaced Busi as the base of the 4-3-3 MF, so maybe he really just is ill-suited for that role.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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FDJ is an interesting case because you'd think there is always room for a player as silky on the ball as him but I'm not sure he actually fits a lot of modern tactical systems they way they have evolved, and I think Xavi's system might be in that category.

With some variation a lot of top managers in possession now want to play something like a 2-3-5 with five advanced players across the front line, staggered with some of them forwards and some of them between the lines, three "counter-pressers" behind them who are capable of playing the ball around but also vigorous enough to win it back quickly and keep the opponents penned in, and then two CBs in the back mopping up. Klopp does it largely with the FBs becoming part of the 5 and his three CMs as the counter-pressers, Guardiola does it with his two more advanced midfielders as part of the 5, and his FBs tucking inside to become midfielders and counter-pressers, Tuchel does it with the wingbacks part of the 5 and one of the outside CBs often moving a bit forward to become more of a midfielder and counter-presser.

There are variations where the CMs and FBs just switch roles back and forth or a sixth guy enters the attack to create some unpredictability or sometimes it looks a bit more like 5-2-3 than 5-3-2 but as a baseline this seems very common nowadays.

FDJ isn't really good enough in the final third to be a regular member of the attacking 5 in a Guardiola type system - he isn't KDB or Bernardo Silva - but he also isn't quite defensively active enough to be an ideal counter-pressing CM in a Klopp like system (his defensive involvements statistics are actually pretty shocking, like 1st percentile in tackles, 3rd in pressures, etc).

In sum, he seems like one of the best players in the world at helping transition your team from the defensive third to the attacking half. But he doesn't have a clear role once you're camped out in possession. I think Barcelona would be pretty smart to sell him if United are offering a big fee as rumored.
 

67YAZ

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FDJ is an interesting case because you'd think there is always room for a player as silky on the ball as him but I'm not sure he actually fits a lot of modern tactical systems they way they have evolved, and I think Xavi's system might be in that category.

With some variation a lot of top managers in possession now want to play something like a 2-3-5 with five advanced players across the front line, staggered with some of them forwards and some of them between the lines, three "counter-pressers" behind them who are capable of playing the ball around but also vigorous enough to win it back quickly and keep the opponents penned in, and then two CBs in the back mopping up. Klopp does it largely with the FBs becoming part of the 5 and his three CMs as the counter-pressers, Guardiola does it with his two more advanced midfielders as part of the 5, and his FBs tucking inside to become midfielders and counter-pressers, Tuchel does it with the wingbacks part of the 5 and one of the outside CBs often moving a bit forward to become more of a midfielder and counter-presser.

There are variations where the CMs and FBs just switch roles back and forth or a sixth guy enters the attack to create some unpredictability or sometimes it looks a bit more like 5-2-3 than 5-3-2 but as a baseline this seems very common nowadays.

FDJ isn't really good enough in the final third to be a regular member of the attacking 5 in a Guardiola type system - he isn't KDB or Bernardo Silva - but he also isn't quite defensively active enough to be an ideal counter-pressing CM in a Klopp like system (his defensive involvements statistics are actually pretty shocking, like 1st percentile in tackles, 3rd in pressures, etc).

In sum, he seems like one of the best players in the world at helping transition your team from the defensive third to the attacking half. But he doesn't have a clear role once you're camped out in possession. I think Barcelona would be pretty smart to sell him if United are offering a big fee as rumored.
This is a really insightful and thoughtful post.

I love FDJ’s game. When I imagine myself playing ref league ball, I picture me doing those silky FDJ things.

But to add to your analysis, most of the mega clubs now routinely see 60%+ possession in a large majority of their matches (sometimes stretching up to 80%). The only time they need that elite transition player is against other mega clubs, so you have to bring those others skills to the table for the majority of matches - a high pressing warrior or a tight spaces technician.

It’s tempting to think ten Hag could get FDJ back to Ajax best, ManU still needs a destroyer to roam the middle of the pitch before trying to slot more creative & attacking players in. Kante is obviously the best in the world here *when healthy*. But I think Ndidi is the next best target of his knee checks out after surgery.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This is a really insightful and thoughtful post.

I love FDJ’s game. When I imagine myself playing ref league ball, I picture me doing those silky FDJ things.

But to add to your analysis, most of the mega clubs now routinely see 60%+ possession in a large majority of their matches (sometimes stretching up to 80%). The only time they need that elite transition player is against other mega clubs, so you have to bring those others skills to the table for the majority of matches - a high pressing warrior or a tight spaces technician.

It’s tempting to think ten Hag could get FDJ back to Ajax best, ManU still needs a destroyer to roam the middle of the pitch before trying to slot more creative & attacking players in. Kante is obviously the best in the world here *when healthy*. But I think Ndidi is the next best target of his knee checks out after surgery.
I think that's a great point about players with skills diverse enough to be assets in the high possession matches that make up the majority of a big club's schedule and in the matches against the other mega clubs. For example, I'd argue that Thiago isn't as good as FDJ at progressing the ball, beating the press, and generally quarterbacking a club up the pitch. But he's still pretty good at that stuff, and he's much better once you get to the final third because he's a more willing tackler/counter-presser and arguably a more incisive passer.

I agree that United need a real DM next to FDJ, with neither Fred nor McTominay really fitting the bill. Ndidi sounds like a good shout. Kalvin Phillips seems sensible to me, although I know there is this historic animosity between United and Leeds.
 

rguilmar

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Jul 16, 2005
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Who knows what Barca can and can't spend this summer. On the one hand, Barca are way afoul of La Liga's FFP rules, and on the other hand...Spanish accounting practices. What we do know is that Barca can only spend 1/3 of any savings they make on new signings plus wages. So if FDJ is sold for $80M, the club can likely only spend $30-40M of those savings. What I don't know is whether any of the new revenue from stadium naming rights, shirt sponsors, ginormous loans, and other fund sources matter for Spanish FFP purposes.

Barca have reportedly already signed Kessie from AC Milan and Christensen from Chelsea on free transfers, but I don't think they've been registered yet. On top of that, Lewa is trying to shoot his way outta Munich and is saying he will only go to Barca, but his wages are north of $20M and even if Bayern accept only $20M as a transfer fee, that would require Barca to free up ~$120M to fit it all under FFP.

Going back to FDJ, it's a fascinating situation. He's one of the most talented players in the world IMO, but he really hasn't thrived at all since he arrived at Barca. I think both he and the club bear some responsibility for that. When he arrived, I thought he was the replacement for Busi in the 4-3-3, but at that time Busi was still pretty effective so they forced onto the field together awkwardly. It became pretty clear that FDJ would be best in his Ajax role as one of a double pivot with a more defensively-minded DMF next to him. However, that's a pretty specific role and I think that FDJ is and needs to be a bit more versatile than that. To that point, FDJ moonlighted in the backline and did very well there, but that was a bandaid and a bad use of his talent. It does say something that FDJ has not displaced Busi as the base of the 4-3-3 MF, so maybe he really just is ill-suited for that role.
My understanding is that a lot of these additional revenue sources go to addressing the -144 million euros in salary that Barca are saddled with at this point (yes, that's a negative salary cap) and the club are tapping into every possible revenue stream that they can, even renting the Nou Camp for people to play games on it by the hour, get married there etc. Some other options include selling some equity in merchandising and selling tv rights.

Laporta has come out publicly to set a new salary structure with no new deals, including extensions, to exceed 10 million euros. He's also looking at restructuring other deals that currently exceed 10 million, including FDJ who I think has a pay raise coming. Rumor is the Lewa is willing to take less to go to Barca. I do wonder why Barca are so interested in the player though. Obviously he is one of the best strikers in the world, if not that best, but he's older and it seems reasonable for Barca to build around their young core. He seems like a luxury at this point for a club who should have more modest expectations as they continue to address their financial problems.

I do find it interesting that we, and I do include myself in "we", joke about Spanish accounting yet the only major club really running afoul of FFP is a Spanish one. Makes you wonder about French and British accounting practices.
 

Zososoxfan

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My understanding is that a lot of these additional revenue sources go to addressing the -144 million euros in salary that Barca are saddled with at this point (yes, that's a negative salary cap) and the club are tapping into every possible revenue stream that they can, even renting the Nou Camp for people to play games on it by the hour, get married there etc. Some other options include selling some equity in merchandising and selling tv rights.

Laporta has come out publicly to set a new salary structure with no new deals, including extensions, to exceed 10 million euros. He's also looking at restructuring other deals that currently exceed 10 million, including FDJ who I think has a pay raise coming. Rumor is the Lewa is willing to take less to go to Barca. I do wonder why Barca are so interested in the player though. Obviously he is one of the best strikers in the world, if not that best, but he's older and it seems reasonable for Barca to build around their young core. He seems like a luxury at this point for a club who should have more modest expectations as they continue to address their financial problems.

I do find it interesting that we, and I do include myself in "we", joke about Spanish accounting yet the only major club really running afoul of FFP is a Spanish one. Makes you wonder about French and British accounting practices.
My best guess as to the bolded touches on a few things we've touched on here already. I think the conversation starts with the premise that FDJ is a bad fit here for whatever reason(s). At some level, I think this is a finance decision. FDJ is still owed $80M+ over the next 5 years. Assuming a $30M transfer fee and $10M/year in wages over 2 years for Lewa (totally picking numbers that I think Barca could/would go for this, not sure if Lewa is actually willing to half his wages), that's a net $30M set of transactions. Now, that doesn't totally answer why Barca would be interested in this from a sporting perspective--i.e. if they sell FDJ, is THIS really the best way to spend $50M? And I think the answer is yes (to Barca mgmt anyway) since they'd be getting a $20M player at $10M, and the transfer fee would be the cost of being an immediate threat to compete for every trophy. I don't think that's an exaggeration either. Lewa is one of a handful of players who you can slot into a big club and reasonably expect to elevate the attack and scoring output considerably.
 

rguilmar

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My best guess as to the bolded touches on a few things we've touched on here already. I think the conversation starts with the premise that FDJ is a bad fit here for whatever reason(s). At some level, I think this is a finance decision. FDJ is still owed $80M+ over the next 5 years. Assuming a $30M transfer fee and $10M/year in wages over 2 years for Lewa (totally picking numbers that I think Barca could/would go for this, not sure if Lewa is actually willing to half his wages), that's a net $30M set of transactions. Now, that doesn't totally answer why Barca would be interested in this from a sporting perspective--i.e. if they sell FDJ, is THIS really the best way to spend $50M? And I think the answer is yes (to Barca mgmt anyway) since they'd be getting a $20M player at $10M, and the transfer fee would be the cost of being an immediate threat to compete for every trophy. I don't think that's an exaggeration either. Lewa is one of a handful of players who you can slot into a big club and reasonably expect to elevate the attack and scoring output considerably.
I agree with what you’re saying. I suppose my question really is “should they be spending that $50M at all?” Lewandowski is absolutely world class, fills a need of sorts for Barca, and does make them better. That being said, does he really change the calculus for Barcelona next season? Do they become legit La Liga or UCL contenders? Or is it better not to spend it at all a la Real Madrid for a few transfer windows and get the finances squared away?

One thing I don’t really have a grasp on, and you probably have a better idea, is what Barcelona need to do to get themselves compliant. I understand the revenue versus wages aspect and how that impacts the ability to register players. I get that right now the wages far outstrip the income, and that this needs to be rectified by both trimming wages and getting additional income. But beyond that, what else needs to be done to be able to get fully involved in the transfer market and back to business as usual? If signing anyone, including Lewa, impacts this part of the equation then I guess I don’t see the point of signing him.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I agree with what you’re saying. I suppose my question really is “should they be spending that $50M at all?” Lewandowski is absolutely world class, fills a need of sorts for Barca, and does make them better. That being said, does he really change the calculus for Barcelona next season? Do they become legit La Liga or UCL contenders? Or is it better not to spend it at all a la Real Madrid for a few transfer windows and get the finances squared away?

One thing I don’t really have a grasp on, and you probably have a better idea, is what Barcelona need to do to get themselves compliant. I understand the revenue versus wages aspect and how that impacts the ability to register players. I get that right now the wages far outstrip the income, and that this needs to be rectified by both trimming wages and getting additional income. But beyond that, what else needs to be done to be able to get fully involved in the transfer market and back to business as usual? If signing anyone, including Lewa, impacts this part of the equation then I guess I don’t see the point of signing him.
I'm not an expert on Barca's finances but this tendency does seem to be part of the problem. Its like a cycle where they have to take extraordinary measures to cut costs or salaries, then immediately use whatever financial flexibility they have to spend money (mainly in the form of big wages) on [Sergio Aguero, Memphis Depay, Ferran Torres, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Franck Kessie, Andreas Christensen, Marcos Alonso, Robert Lewandowski] in a bid to raise the short term competitiveness of the club and appease the fans, only to then enter the next period needing to cut costs or salaries again...

It feels like they have enough firepower at this point to be confident about making the CL again next year and it would be the smart move just to be content with that while they regroup a bit but no Barca director can keep his job without promising to compete for La Liga and the CL immediately so...
 

Zososoxfan

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I don't disagree with what either of you are saying. I think this is just a case of Laporta & Co. wanting their cake and eating it too. IOW, they want to put the club on better financial footing (and frankly it would be hard not to), but they want to compete for UCL immediately. Whether they can do that with an approximation of (WAG ALERT):

MATS
Dest-Araujo-Christensen-Alba
Gavi-Kessie-Pedri
Torres-Lewa-Fati

Bench (??): Erick Garcia, Alves, Memphis, Pique, Braithwaite, Lenglet, Auba, Gonzalez

Is debatable. That team looks pretty strong to me, although not likely quite at the level of MANC, Liverpool, Bayern. Partly because Araujo is the only player in the backline of truly elite quality, and partly because even if Christensen, Kessie, and Lewa all get registered they still have to figure out how to play as a unit.