What (true) bench player will get the most minutes in the playoffs?
- Thread starter Koufax
- Start date
I went with PP because I think- at least for the first two series the starters and Horford will carry the team to a point where they can bring in PP to pile on without worrying about defense. He'll help outrun the other teams basically. If they advance farther (thinking they will) and the games get tighter I agree you're likely to see more Kornet but in aggregate, PP will see the most time. He'll help extend leads or pull them back from a deficit, then sit when oppositions defense tightens up.
Some context. Last season Pritchard got by far the most minutes. I don't see that changing. Hauser was seemingly less playable.
Regular season MPG:
PP - 28.4 (+27% vs last year)
Sam - 21.7 (-1% vs last year
Luke - 18.6 (+19% vs last year)
Last year regular season:
PP - 22.3
Sam - 22.0
Luke - 15.6
Last year playoff run:
PP - 18.7 (-16% vs regular season)
Sam - 14.9 (-32% vs regular season)
Luke - 10.2 (-35% vs regular season)
Regular season MPG:
PP - 28.4 (+27% vs last year)
Sam - 21.7 (-1% vs last year
Luke - 18.6 (+19% vs last year)
Last year regular season:
PP - 22.3
Sam - 22.0
Luke - 15.6
Last year playoff run:
PP - 18.7 (-16% vs regular season)
Sam - 14.9 (-32% vs regular season)
Luke - 10.2 (-35% vs regular season)
It largely depends on matchup but overall it was between Kornet and Hauser to me. For example, Kornet against the Cavs is a major issue with their size and athleticism, whereas he is great matchup against the Knicks. Prichard has been amazing this year but becomes too much of a defensive liability in the playoffs in my mind. I went Hauser as they need a spot up shooter that won't kill them on the other end will just get more minutes. Mind you, i still think Prichard and Kornet will be of value. On top of that, if Brown is limited, Hauser will take most of those minutes.
I think Pritchard has earned the status where you don't hold him back for fear of being targeted, but instead wait for it to happen and adjust if necessary. I'm not sure who I'm worried about targeting him from potential opponents in the first two rounds, the way I'd be concerned about Mitchell targeting him in the ECF.
I'm also a little concerned about Kornet being targeted in the playoffs, but that's not backed up by statistics or anything, I just think of all the times that quick guys get him isolated and go right past him. I could see Trae or Brunson cooking him over and over.
I'm also a little concerned about Kornet being targeted in the playoffs, but that's not backed up by statistics or anything, I just think of all the times that quick guys get him isolated and go right past him. I could see Trae or Brunson cooking him over and over.
Is Craig the most capable to replace Brown's on-ball pressure?
If Porzingis stays healthy, he's a more than capable replacement for Brown's offensive production. However, Brown's defense is harder to replace.
It’ll probably be PP but depends on how competitive the series are.
FYI, Sam played more than PP v DAL and PP played only 6 more minutes than Sam v IND.
Yeah it's interesting to look at the game log and by series data.
Last year PP went 22.8 to 22.6 to 16.3 to 12.4 - fewer minutes each series.
Sam went 17-12.2-14.5-15.4. He got a lot of minutes vs the Cavs despite going through a horrible slump (2-16 that series).
Luke went 8.7-14.4-9.0-5.0. Note that he did not play games 1 or 2 against Miami; then did not play games 3 or 4 against Indy. In the finals he played 3 minutes in game 1; 10 in game 4 (garbage time I believe); and 2 in game 5. His MPG is artificially inflated - he didn't play in a bunch of games. I forget if he was injured though?
Edit: box scores show me that he was injured for some (but not all) of the missed games.
I'm going with Pritchard.
PP hasn't played great in the playoffs, he knows it and comes back strong this year. It's how the guy is built.
PP hasn't played great in the playoffs, he knows it and comes back strong this year. It's how the guy is built.
I think the bolded is the key sentence. Who has the game and the usage to really make hay on targeting PP? We know that was a Jimmy Butler specialty, but who can do that this year as effectively, knowing PP's relative strengths on D? I'm not sure Brunson or Mitchell or Garland are as much a threat mainly due to their lack of size advantage. Cade Cunningham maybe could, but I think the C's can scramble away from that easily enough since the Pistons don't really have great options behind CC.
Pritchard played the most last year and is more improved than Hauser, so it seems very likely he wins the smalls minutes battle. The wildcard is if Jaylen is seriously limited, Hauser may get more overflow minutes from that than Pritchard does.
Kornet is a wildcard. He’s the most improved, but his minutes last year were mostly because KP was hurt. If KP and Al stay healthy, it’s hard to see him getting a ton of run. On the other hand, I would expect him to get 5-10 mpg when Tatum is playing without Jaylen because the Tatum/Kornet 2-man game is really really effective.
Kornet is a wildcard. He’s the most improved, but his minutes last year were mostly because KP was hurt. If KP and Al stay healthy, it’s hard to see him getting a ton of run. On the other hand, I would expect him to get 5-10 mpg when Tatum is playing without Jaylen because the Tatum/Kornet 2-man game is really really effective.
Kornet's also a candidate for JB overflow minutes. They could play KP and Al together a lot, play Luke with Tatum, and try to always have a KP/DWhite/Al/Jrue lineup out there when Tatum isn't playing. Lots of options.
Feel like PP, Hauser and Kornet are all much better players than last year. PP has definitely been on the floor against top competition.. not sure he's been all that exposed? But I get that the playoffs change things.
Given the link up play between Kornet and Tatum.. and that you want to rest KP and Horford as much as possible.. I'd guess it's Kornet.
In the Cleveland game where they blew the huge first quarter lead, Pritchard played 22 minutes and was -36. Just one data point, in a game where KP sat and Hauser started in his place, but Cleveland targeted PP mercilessly.
PP played more minutes per game than Horford this season.
He played the most regular season and post season minutes of anyone in the poll last year, has by far the most minutes this season, just had his best year, and is likely going to win 6th man of the year.
Matchups and injuries can obviously change things, but I don't really understand the poll.
He played the most regular season and post season minutes of anyone in the poll last year, has by far the most minutes this season, just had his best year, and is likely going to win 6th man of the year.
Matchups and injuries can obviously change things, but I don't really understand the poll.
This is exactly where I am, unfortunately.
I think Hauser holds up pretty well on D in the half court and Walsh / Craig are just too much of liabilities on offense. But, if Hauser does get completely torched on D, then he could lose out on some run to Kornet in 2-Bigs + Tatum lineups.
Pritchard will get his minutes in end of quarter situations, against backup guards, and when Cs are down big or up big.
Same here. If Jaylen were to miss the playoffs that would change things, same if we lost a big, but as is I don’t know how this would be anyone but Pritchard.
I very much doubt this.
If everyone is healthy, I expect the starters to play more minutes like they always do in the playoffs. But PP isn't a specialty or fringe rotation guy anymore.
He's firmly planted as, at worst, our 7th best player and 3rd guard. And many games he's been our 2nd best guard. He is going to play a lot, not just in blowouts or curated matchups/end of quarter stuff.
Jrue fans.... avert your eyes.
The chart of a past All Star turned into a Glue Guy? A reminder that Brad isn't going to have an easy time moving Jrue.
With JB hampered/dinged up Holiday's on-ball defense has to show up. Waiting under the 3pt line to engage the ball handler isn't going to cut it. Jrue needs to be picking up half court, ferocious from the tip, setting the defensive tone.
Let's just hope he picks it up a bit in the playoffs and is a do-it-all glue guy, rather than someone ready for the glue factory.
This playoff run might look different than last year's, hard to expect a repeat performance from Jaylen and Jrue. Tatum will probably have to be the clear cut #1 guy every series (at least beyond round 1), PP will have to play a bigger role, and KP will have to stay healthy.
I fully expect Jrue to repeat last years trend of coasting for much of the regular season simply because he could with so much talent and scoring around him…..to playing a larger role on both sides of the ball in the playoffs. No B2B’s and plenty of rest leading up to the first round should bump all of the veterans energy level upward.
Agreed. And, a healthy KP is a big difference from last year (and yes, I know the data this year with him was mixed). Celtics likely have more health variance than many contenders, between JB's knee, Jrue and Al's ages, and KP. One injury can change that calculus, and small things can turn playoff games and thus playoff series. There are no sure things.
And...a fully healthy Celtics team is for me the favorite to win every series they can play in six games (or less). A couple of those are more 60%/40% series and yes, maybe Cleveland rises to occasion to beat them; they are big and capable. Maybe OKC does - they are quick, deep, and tough. Maybe a surprise team does - Pacers will give Celtics issues with pace, for example. But sitting here today, looking at scheme, personnel, and experience, there is no better two-way team either 1-5 or 1-8 and that is what the playoffs are primarily about.
Pritchard should play 30+ mins/game against Orlando. He totally opens up the offense, on and off ball, and he also was (shockingly) totally fine defending Banchero.
I'm a bit surprised at how good he looked on both ends, but he definitely needs minutes (Joe is much smarter than I, and clearly saw this too as the game went on).
I'm a bit surprised at how good he looked on both ends, but he definitely needs minutes (Joe is much smarter than I, and clearly saw this too as the game went on).
I got the sense in watching last night's game that Jrue and PP did well against Banchero because they both got up into his comfort zone and made it hard for him to dribble. I feel like Banchero is a bit like early Jaylen Brown: excellent in space, but a bit loose with his handle. All the bigs -- KP, Al, Luke -- dropped off him and made it easy for him to take what he wanted. JH and PP made that much more difficult.
I think there was another factor, not just about how those two guarded Banchero. Orlando plays rock-fight defense all the time. The Celtics dont. I think it took the Celtics a bit to adjust to Orlando's style, and once they realized that the refs were calling (or not calling) the physical play roughly evenly at both ends, they removed Orlando's "advantage" on Orlando's defensive end, and completely neutered Orlando's already-weak offense by giving them a taste of their own medicine in Orlando's offensive end. It seemed to me (with sound off) that there were dozens of "contacts" by players on both teams that "could have been called fouls," as they say.
I had texted a friend something along the lines of "C's beating Magic at their own game, as long as no one gets hurt." Then Tatum hit the deck. I'd prefer that the Celtics dont have to deal with more than 4 or 5 games of this. That said, it's a good tune-up for the times ahead.
Agreed. I posted this in the broader playoff thread last night which aligns with what you are saying here.
This thread looks even sillier than the day it was posted. Only question I have is whether Luke and Sam will have as many combined minutes as Pritch. It’s 56-44 Pritch through two games.
i don’t think hauser is playing poorly. the magic aren’t giving him open looks, he’s a guy who is the last domino in the chain reaction of things happening on offense and the magic seem to be doing a good job of preventing it from getting to the point where he has a shot. 3 shots in 2 games. i think his defense has been good
Yeah this isn't gonna be the series for Hauser. Hauser is the one player in the top 8 who doesn't create his own offense (even Horford gets occasional post-ups against small guards), his shot is entirely generated off of drive and kicks when the defense is in rotation. Orlando is a terrific defensive team that always switches and never double teams if they can help it. Even when they are beat, they'd rather commit the foul and force the refs to blow the whistle than give up open 3s. In particular, Tatum being out means Orlando is more than happy to just switch and dig in 1v1, which means no open looks for Hauser. He's has been OK defensively, he's one of many guys getting cooked by Banchero whenever the situation arises.
Kornet is similar in that he never gets his own shot, but he looks a step slow and is getting pushed around inside. He'll have a better time against either the Knicks or Pistons.
Seemed to me he was having a tough time with Banchero, but he wasn't the only one.
yeah i wouldn’t say getting beat by a very good player who has 3 inches and prob 30 pounds on him is necessarily indicative of poor play it’s just a tough matchup for him
I wonder whether Scheierman would be better than Hauser in this particular series.
He’s probably in the section of the bench surrounded by a box that says “Break glass in the case of emergency”.
Right now Hauser playing is more "status quo" obviously than Baylor, and I think that's what you need in this series. We don't need to raise an apparent ceiling, but the floor, and Hauser's defense and comfort playing with the top 6 is much more important
I voted for Hauser and I was wrong, but in my defense, I was betting on the Brown injury force-feeding him minutes.
I didn't account for how much of the Magic offense flows through Banchero & Wagner. From what I saw, Hauser seems to struggle in particular guarding these larger, stronger skilled guys.
I didn't account for how much of the Magic offense flows through Banchero & Wagner. From what I saw, Hauser seems to struggle in particular guarding these larger, stronger skilled guys.