What to expect from the receiving corps

[BaseballJones]

So I'm talking mainly about this group of players: Bourne, Parker, Meyers, Agholor, Harry, Henry, Smith, White.

Let's say that they still run a bunch, and that Mac improves on his 2021 numbers and throws for 4,200 yards (roughly 400 yards improvement) and 30 td (improvement by 8). We know that guys not in the group I listed above will get SOME yards and maybe a TD or two, so let's say that this group above accounts for 4,000 yards and 28 td.

Bourne: 800 yds, 5 td
Parker: 600 yds, 4 td
Meyers: 650 yds, 2 td
Agholor: 400 yds, 4 td
Harry: 150 yds, 2 td
Henry: 700 yds, 8 td
Smith: 350 yds, 2 td
White: 350 yds, 1 td

TOT: 4,000 yds, 28 td

Now that would represent a good passing offense. Not elite, but good (of course there would be an additional 200 yds and 2 td coming from random guys not on this list, so the team total passing offense would be solid). FWIW, Rodgers passed for 4,115 yards last year. 4,200 passing yards would have put Mac 10th in the NFL last year, and 32 td would also have been 10th. So yeah, if Mac throws for 4,200 yards and 32 td while not turning it over much and completing a good percentage, that's a really good passing offense.

If this was the distribution, we could look at the whole and say it's a good OVERALL passing team, yet not a single guy really stands out. Moreover, we could look at a bunch of these guys and say they were "disappointments". For example, if the Pats got 600 yards and 4 td out of Parker, I think a lot of people would be disappointed in that production. Harry getting 150 would be worse than his 2021 season, so obviously would be disappointing. White's 350 would be a down year for him so that would be a disappointment. Jonnu only getting 350 yards, while up from 2021, would still be less than what he got his two prior seasons in Tennessee, which is partly why NE signed him, so that would be disappointing. Agholor at his contract only getting 400 yards? Major disappointment. I'd even say that Bourne, coming off an 800 yard season in 2021, seems primed for a much bigger year in 2022, so I'd even suggest that 800 yards and 5 td might constitute a disappointment. Maybe Meyers and Henry would be the only ones not in the "disappointment" category, but I'd say Meyers' 650, coming off an 866 yard season in 2021, would still be a disappointment. Henry's 700 yards and 8 td would be about what we'd expect, so maybe not a disappointment.

Here's the point. The Patriots could have a very successful passing offense next year, putting up very good numbers across the board, and yet so many individuals could be considered "disappointments". And obviously if you moved the numbers around to give one guy more yards, that means fewer for someone else and that other guy becomes even more of a disappointment.

There's only one ball to go around, and there's no way that, even if the pass offense is excellent, that a bunch of guys won't be considered to be disappointments.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So I'm talking mainly about this group of players: Bourne, Parker, Meyers, Agholor, Harry, Henry, Smith, White.

Let's say that they still run a bunch, and that Mac improves on his 2021 numbers and throws for 4,200 yards (roughly 400 yards improvement) and 30 td (improvement by 8). We know that guys not in the group I listed above will get SOME yards and maybe a TD or two, so let's say that this group above accounts for 4,000 yards and 28 td.

Bourne: 800 yds, 5 td
Parker: 600 yds, 4 td
Meyers: 650 yds, 2 td
Agholor: 400 yds, 4 td
Harry: 150 yds, 2 td
Henry: 700 yds, 8 td
Smith: 350 yds, 2 td
White: 350 yds, 1 td

TOT: 4,000 yds, 28 td

Now that would represent a good passing offense. Not elite, but good (of course there would be an additional 200 yds and 2 td coming from random guys not on this list, so the team total passing offense would be solid). FWIW, Rodgers passed for 4,115 yards last year. 4,200 passing yards would have put Mac 10th in the NFL last year, and 32 td would also have been 10th. So yeah, if Mac throws for 4,200 yards and 32 td while not turning it over much and completing a good percentage, that's a really good passing offense.

If this was the distribution, we could look at the whole and say it's a good OVERALL passing team, yet not a single guy really stands out. Moreover, we could look at a bunch of these guys and say they were "disappointments". For example, if the Pats got 600 yards and 4 td out of Parker, I think a lot of people would be disappointed in that production. Harry getting 150 would be worse than his 2021 season, so obviously would be disappointing. White's 350 would be a down year for him so that would be a disappointment. Jonnu only getting 350 yards, while up from 2021, would still be less than what he got his two prior seasons in Tennessee, which is partly why NE signed him, so that would be disappointing. Agholor at his contract only getting 400 yards? Major disappointment. I'd even say that Bourne, coming off an 800 yard season in 2021, seems primed for a much bigger year in 2022, so I'd even suggest that 800 yards and 5 td might constitute a disappointment. Maybe Meyers and Henry would be the only ones not in the "disappointment" category, but I'd say Meyers' 650, coming off an 866 yard season in 2021, would still be a disappointment. Henry's 700 yards and 8 td would be about what we'd expect, so maybe not a disappointment.

Here's the point. The Patriots could have a very successful passing offense next year, putting up very good numbers across the board, and yet so many individuals could be considered "disappointments". And obviously if you moved the numbers around to give one guy more yards, that means fewer for someone else and that other guy becomes even more of a disappointment.

There's only one ball to go around, and there's no way that, even if the pass offense is excellent, that a bunch of guys won't be considered to be disappointments.

yeah, I expect a balanced offense... but also I expect one of those guys to get hurt and miss a chunk of the year, last year we got 82/85 games from our on paper top 5 pass catchers (top 3 WRs and 2 TEs). That's insanely good injury luck.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Harry, Parker, and Agholor all making the 53. If they draft a guy wouldn’t even surprise me if both Harry and Nelson were gone sometime before the 2022 regular season.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I cannot imagine N’Keal Harry making this 53. Especially as they will almost certainly select a WR somewhere in the first four rounds. (And especially as he will almost certainly continue to be N’Keal Harry.)

 

[Saints Rest]

I think its a good bet that Harris (as opposed to Harry) will finish with 150 yds and 2 TDs. As will Rham.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I cannot imagine N’Keal Harry making this 53. Especially as they will almost certainly select a WR somewhere in the first four rounds. (And especially as he will almost certainly continue to be N’Keal Harry.)

But I hear he’s, like, a really good blocker

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Harry, Parker, and Agholor all making the 53. If they draft a guy wouldn’t even surprise me if both Harry and Nelson were gone sometime before the 2022 regular season.

I think Harry is getting traded/cut, I think unless they get a very particular type of player in the draft Agholor rides out his deal, they probably want to see what he looks like with a more developed Mac, and with a real X opposite him so he can be just a deep threat working against #2 corners like he was on the Raiders

 

[E5 Yaz]

But I hear he’s, like, a really good blocker

It's a sad irony. Part of being a good blocker is the ability to avoid separation from the defender.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I find it hard to evaluate the receiving corps independent of the person throwing the football.

In terms of talent, the receivers will be about the same as last year.

Their production will mostly depend on whether Mac takes a step forward, regresses, or stays about the same.

 

[Dogman]

I cannot imagine N’Keal Harry making this 53. Especially as they will almost certainly select a WR somewhere in the first four rounds. (And especially as he will almost certainly continue to be N’Keal Harry.)

I don't think it is almost certain they select a WR in the first four rounds. In fact, my hunch is the team is done with WR outside of a 7th or UDFA this year or makes no WR selections at all. What's more, I think Wilkerson contributes and plays a healthy amount of snaps this year.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't think it is almost certain they select a WR in the first four rounds. In fact, my hunch is the team is done with WR outside of a 7th or UDFA this year or makes no WR selections at all. What's more, I think Wilkerson contributes and plays a healthy amount of snaps this year.

Strongly agree with you on that there is no certainty they take WRs this year. If they keep Parker and Agholor I am not sure Wilk sees the field without an injury but... pretty sure Parker and/or Agholor will miss time this year so wouldn't surprise me if Wilk played a few games.

They might draft an X. They might not. They might draft a day 3 slot with return skills like Kyle Philips or they might not.


This will be in my Patriots superlatives when I research it. But if they are going X I think it's Pickens, Pierce, Watson or MAYBE Skyy Moore. Tolbert could be in there too I guess.

If they want a slot there are a ton of options. I think Kyle Philips would appeal to them day 3. Early on they haven't drafted slots but that philosophy could change. Groh had some comments today about WRs that indicated they actually might be interested in one this year in the draft and maybe just maybe their philosophy is getting updated.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I find it hard to evaluate the receiving corps independent of the person throwing the football.

Or how much time the revamped offensive line needs to give Mac time to throw.
Or how strong the defenses will be that the Patriots play.
Or how long the offense takes to gel with a new signal-caller.
Or, you know, how life intervenes when they're busy doing other things.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Or how much time the revamped offensive line needs to give Mac time to throw.
Or how strong the defenses will be that the Patriots play.
Or how long the offense takes to gel with a new signal-caller.
Or, you know, how life intervenes when they're busy doing other things.

Yeah, I think we have a pretty good sense of what this receiving corp is at this point. All of the top 4 guys are productive but unspectacular WRs. The Parker addition really helps to reinforce the depth of the group.

And Harry still sucks.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah I think @E5 Yaz has a good point. As much as I love Onwenu it’s still a ? if he can seamless fit into RG (although I’d argue that’s probably his best projected position). They will either start CFL or a rookie at LG (they could make a trade too). So the OL isn’t a finished product. Also… let’s not forget that Wynn and Brown aren’t known for their health so OT depth is important and they don’t have very good depth there.
And with Mac we don’t know how much he can improve mentally and physically. I think there’s some meat on the bone there. But there might not be or he doesn’t realize it.
And we also don’t know if the defense is going to be any good or if they are going to by game script have to pass a lot.
I like the idea of a projections thread but I’m skeptical it can be productive this far in advance. You don’t know what happens in camp. Who gets hurt. Who is likely to make the roster. I mean we know some of that but not all of it. Plus Bill might make FA moves and/or trades during and after the draft when there are no comp pick ramifications.

Edit: the point is there are a lot of factors to project that impact the passing game and many of them are not clear enough yet.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I believe they will select a WR on day two and day three.

 

[Arroyoyo]

I still think there’s another big shoe to drop when it comes to WR. One or both of Agholor and Harry IMO will be moved to make room for either a top WR in the draft, or, after the draft a trade for a top WR.

Last year we watched, far too many times, this group get next-to-zero separation. Bourne was somewhat an exception, but they need a burner with actual hands and the ability to shake the deep safety. They were hoping Agholor would be that guy, but he isn’t. Not finding that guy to help Mac in year two would be a massive gaffe. It’d also be an injustice to Henry, Bourne, Meyers, and now Parker to keep letting safeties shoot out of a rocket on every intermediate throw.

We got away with that in the pst with TB12 because of his quick release and Edelman, Gronk, Amendola, etc. being able to shake their coverage at the line, but that’s not the case anymore. Our current group isn’t nearly as talented off the line and need to battle more (and for longer) to get separation. To help them find that space this version of the Patriots’ offense needs a downfield burner that can attract/shake the safety and be a real threat to actually catch the ball.

If we don’t get this true #1 deep threat this year it will be one of the most disappointing non-moves by BB in recent memory. It’s such a glaring, obvious need, and it’s dragged on for far too long.

 

[SMU_Sox]

So some of it was they didn’t get separation but I’d argue that Meyers actually did. Bourne did. Agholor did (sometimes). What happened later in the season is teams, like the colts and Bills, would play with inside leverage against them a lot and patiently wait for the inbreaking routes and smother them. It’s like they knew both the play design and where Mac was going to look so they would defend that and leave more space to the sidelines. I think we saw teams play them differently on defense in the first 8-9 games vs last 8-9 games. More dropping more guys back maybe? Part of this is remember what the Bills and Colts did though and I’m not sure every team attacked us like they did.
Also, the Bills I thought were really well-coached and sniffed out a bunch of their plays. That’s just good film study and coaching but also kind of shows you that maybe the Pats offense was a little stale? Maybe? (It goes without saying playing them 3x obviously helps there. But I said it anyway)