What to Do, What to Do?

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
If you sign Ball and move Kemba, you still need to acquire a 3rd scorer. Who scores when both Jays are on the bench?

It's interesting because we all want that 3+D guy but the team would desperately need someone who can create their own shot without Kemba.

If they could move Kemba for 1 or 2 1st round picks, sign Ball and Monk, I'd might be game. They'd still have some of the TPE to work with too, I'd imagine. Ball or Monk would require a S&T and for both teams not to match offer sheets.

I don't see a scenario like that happening but we'll see. I have a feeling Kemba will probably be the best bet going forward in 21/22, depressing as it is.
 
Last edited:

Jimbodandy

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
4,615
around the way
If you sign Ball and move Kemba, you still need to acquire a 3rd scorer. Who scores when both Jays are on the bench?

It's interesting because we all want that 3+D guy but the team would desperately need someone who can create their own shot without Kemba.
I think that the Hayward TPE or whatever TPE/Expirings you get for Kemba - that's where the third shot creator comes from in this scenario.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
I think that the Hayward TPE or whatever TPE/Expirings you get for Kemba - that's where the third shot creator comes from in this scenario.
Yeah, I was editing my post. I wonder what kind of 3rd scorer would be out there in that scenario. I'd guess mostly offensive minded players who are around 6 feet tall.
 

Jimbodandy

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
4,615
around the way
Yeah, I was editing my post. I wonder what kind of 3rd scorer would be out there in that scenario. I'd guess mostly offensive minded players who are around 6 feet tall.
Hair trigger, sorry.

I don't think that it necessarily has to be an alpha. A secondary scorer with other complementary skills would cost less than a Beal or LaVine and still be a great thing to have. And we still don't know how covid revenue (not just to the NBA franchises themselves but to the owners' other businesses) will impact salary decisions. We'll know more when Mr. Beeks delivers that crop report.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
It would be quite something if we made a S&T with the Hornets 3 years in a row but the Hornets could be in a position to sign a max player so trading Monk to the C's for assets would actually be a decent idea. John Collins makes a lot of sense for the Hornets too, like a whole lot of sense.

I'd guess opinions of Monk vary wildly on here and whether he could be the "3rd scorer" but I don't think the C's need a traditional 3rd scorer. I think having the 3rd scorer come off the bench would be ideal, actually. The 2 Jays could handle the offense with a (preferably stretch) big and 2 shooters, no need for a 3rd scorer. When they sit however, there would be a definite need. Monk would also be able to play with the starters if need be.

He just turned 23 and is entering his 4th year. His first 3 were not pretty. After being inserted into the rotation on a consistent basis this year, he's averaging 13.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks in 25.3 minutes on .455/.508/.929 shooting.

The downside with Monk is he lacks length so he's never going to add value on defense. If the C's signed Ball for $4/76 and traded Kemba, that would leave them about $23 mil below the luxury tax thresh hold. I'm sure any player they acquired would be flawed in some regard. LaVine would actually fit, but the Celtics are probably not getting Zach LaVine. Even if they did get Zach LaVine, they probably wouldn't be able to retain him after his contract was up at the end of 21/22, although maybe. The core of Tatum/Brown/Ball would be $76 mil. Lavine will probably get max. No idea what that is but lets say it's $30 mil. That puts the C's at $106. They'd probably have a few of Romeo/Nesmith/Grant/Pritchard and Edwards under contract. Let's say it's Romeo, Grant and Edwards. That puts them at $118 mil and 7 players. They'd need a minimum of 5 more players to fill the roster.

With Monk, he probably signs for anywhere from 4/48 to 4/80. At the end of 21/22, that would give the C's Jay/Jay/Ball and Monk locked up at $77-85 mil. They would probably still have Romeo, Nesmith and Pritchard under contract. Possibly Grant and Edwards. That's either 11.6 million or 17.8 million. That's 7 players at 88.6-96.6 or 9 at $84.8-102.8. They'd also have TL, Smart, and TT on holds. They could choose to keep Smart if he's in that $15 mil range, TT is gone and TL probably is too. Theis would have been gone after 20/21. Even in the most expensive scenario, that's 10 players locked up at 115.8 million. That leaves 5 more players to fill the roster, although only 2 are required.


Do people really think the C's should go the 3rd max option rather than add a starter and a decent rotational player? I sorta get it as you want the best players possible but players 4-8 are also very important and I'd guess at some point the payroll flexibility and the on court value has to tilt in favor of 2 players instead of 1. If the 3rd player is a top 20 player in the league and instead you opt for Ball and Monk, you are stupid. If the 3rd player is a top 50 player in the league, will be paid the max and you opt for Ball and Monk... maybe you aren't so stupid?

That's basically trading the healthy version of Kemba Walker for Ball and Monk, really.

So where's the cut off where very good quantity is worth more than even better quality? Let's pretend Malik Monk turns into prime Lou Williams starting next year. If you could have Lonzo Ball and Monk locked up at the same price combined as John Collins for the next 4 years, which would you take if you had the C's current roster minus Kemba Walker?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,718
If the C’s want the Lonz they need to trade for him now. I’ll guarantee you that LeBron never lets a Boston offer get through to Big Ball if he gets to free agency with the Pelicans.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
Hair trigger, sorry.

I don't think that it necessarily has to be an alpha. A secondary scorer with other complementary skills would cost less than a Beal or LaVine and still be a great thing to have. And we still don't know how covid revenue (not just to the NBA franchises themselves but to the owners' other businesses) will impact salary decisions. We'll know more when Mr. Beeks delivers that crop report.
I totally agree. I think in an ideal world the C's would sign 2 promising players under 25 to 4 year deals in the range of $15-20 mil. They'd line up with the Jays, they'd be cheap and young enough to trade if they don't work out, offers injury depth, and also offers potential to improve. Guys like Ball and Monk are not done developing as players. Monk may very well be in the middle of "the leap" right now and Ball is steadily improving as a player, specifically his 3 point shot. He's already 78/201 this year, so his .388 isn't from that small a sample. Add last year, and its 226/596, .379. In Smart's 2 best back to back seasons, he was 263/741, .355. Ball would have to go 0/40 to match that .355 mark. Or 37/145, .255. Hell, for his career Ball is now at .349, not far off from Smart's peak. Up to .742 from the line this year too, though that's a 23/31 sample size. He's been getting to the line more lately too. Perhaps that's because he's shooting better from the line. Going back to January 3rd of 2020, he's at 68% (51/75).

I'd be all on board for Lauri too if he falls into that price range. I'd be in on Jarret Allen for considerably less but no idea what he gets.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
7,456
Kiev, Ukraine
Cesar has a good point that I hadn’t thought of, which is that you could eat the big tax bill of adding another player in 2021-22, and then hope for Kemba either to opt out, or trade him as damaged when such a trade only costs you 1 1st (the rough going price for an expiring).

That’s not nearly as daunting a plan to ownership as starting 3-4 years of huge bills in the face.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
10,468
Santa Monica
I totally agree. I think in an ideal world the C's would sign 2 promising players under 25 to 4 year deals in the range of $15-20 mil. They'd line up with the Jays, they'd be cheap and young enough to trade if they don't work out, offers injury depth, and also offers potential to improve. Guys like Ball and Monk are not done developing as players. Monk may very well be in the middle of "the leap" right now and Ball is steadily improving as a player, specifically his 3 point shot. He's already 78/201 this year, so his .388 isn't from that small a sample. Add last year, and its 226/596, .379. In Smart's 2 best back to back seasons, he was 263/741, .355. Ball would have to go 0/40 to match that .355 mark. Or 37/145, .255. Hell, for his career Ball is now at .349, not far off from Smart's peak. Up to .742 from the line this year too, though that's a 23/31 sample size. He's been getting to the line more lately too. Perhaps that's because he's shooting better from the line. Going back to January 3rd of 2020, he's at 68% (51/75).

I'd be all on board for Lauri too if he falls into that price range. I'd be in on Jarret Allen for considerably less but no idea what he gets.
+1
add Norm Powell to that list. Just avoid repeater this year and burn Wycs money next season (if it makes sense to keep Kemba)
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
37,762
Too bad Malik Beasley is such a turd off the court because Minnesota is going nowhere and he is signed to a reasonable long-term deal at current Smart money.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
Too bad Malik Beasley is such a turd off the court because Minnesota is going nowhere and he is signed to a reasonable long-term deal at current Smart money.
What did he do off the court? He's been one of my favorite follows on the court for awhile. I wanted the C's to target him and Monte Morris like 2-3 years ago.

I though Portis would be a good fit too but he's also a turd.

Looked it up on Beasley. I'll pass on people pulling guns on 13 year olds. https://www.si.com/nba/2020/12/22/malik-beasley-pleads-guilty-felony-charge-timberwolves
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
10,468
Santa Monica
What did he do off the court? He's been one of my favorite follows on the court for awhile. I wanted the C's to target him and Monte Morris like 2-3 years ago.

I though Portis would be a good fit too but he's also a turd.

Looked it up on Beasley. I'll pass on people pulling guns on 13 year olds. https://www.si.com/nba/2020/12/22/malik-beasley-pleads-guilty-felony-charge-timberwolves
same with Terrence Davis, domestic violence accusations/acquittal has Toronto not thrilled with him.

Monte Morris has been my wish list for years. I wonder what it would take to score him.

Any guesses on how much Portland will spend on Trent Jr?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
13,467
same with Terrence Davis, domestic violence accusations/acquittal has Toronto not thrilled with him.

Monte Morris has been my wish list for years. I wonder what it would take to score him.

Any guesses on how much Portland will spend on Trent Jr?
Morris signed a 3/28 mil extension so he's not going anywhere. He's the perfect back up PG locked up at less than $10 mil a year. He's not really a good fit on the team anyway, even without Kemba. I'd take PP going forward. Part of the reason I like Monte is because he has an elite TO%. He never turns the ball over.

I'm not sure what he'd really bring to the team in it's current state though.

Trent Jr is going to be a hard sign for Portland. I'd guess they'd go as high as $15-20 million, but after that it would be hard for them to stay under the luxury cap.



Otto Porter might be young enough to fit too. I'd also be in on Aaron Gordon who is currently injured. With as bad as Orlando is, they'd might blow it up and Gordon isn't good enough or young enough to build around. I'd also love to try and get Jonathan Isaac or Mo Bamba though the former isn't happening and would be a risk. The latter has one more year after this and is probably worth more to Orlando than anything they'd get in return.


Nesmith is also a wild card in all of this. If he continues to play 20 minutes a night the rest of the way and the offense starts to click, he's going to have some serious trade value. PP will have some value too, though considerably less. That could open the door for much bigger names. So in a way, we've been advocating for the same thing. The best thing to do this season is to go cheap (Ellington) and wait for this summer to target the players you want and hope some of the young players develop enough to be part of the team's future or to trade away for a John Collins.

If those players are available, you lock them up and then you see what it takes to move Kemba and if the cost is prohibitive, you keep him for 21/22 and hope he is good enough to opt out. If he is, chances are the Celtics are having a very good season. If he's not, you can trade him after 21/22 where he only has 1 year left for far less assets. There's also the possibility you could trade him during the 21/22 season for an actual asset if he's playing well and the team somehow isn't, or he just isn't needed.

Hell, if he finishes the year averaging 20 points, 5 assists and shooting 42/40/90, you'd might even be able to get a 2nd round pick for him from the right team. As long as he stays relatively healthy, the contract becomes better value by the day. If he can get 3/70+, he'll opt out imo.

There's also the insane idea of stretching Kemba Walker if they can't trade him and he opts in. That would put them at $84 million with 7 players signed, but only 2 guaranteed. Drop Grant and Carsen and your at $78/5. It would allow them to pursue a max guy in 22/23 even if Kemba opted in. That would also mean they didn't add additional payroll beyond 21/22 from now until then tho.

Carrying 3 max contracts seems like a bad idea and something you only do if you have a bunch of rookies performing on rookie deals. Still, if they added a Ball this year and had to stretch Kemba, they should still be able to add a decent player in 22/23, though not a max. Stretching would suck but it would let the C's add a player now and then again after the 21/22 season. It would save Wyc some money in 21/22 as well.
 

Burkharts Uppercut

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 18, 2003
78
In a vacuum no, but if we could use TT's salary as trade ballast for a wing, and increase Timelord's role, why not. RAPTOR likes him better and it's a different look. But yeah, I don't want Theis starting at SF. And unlikely he wants to come here to be the third center.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
636
In a vacuum no, but if we could use TT's salary as trade ballast for a wing, and increase Timelord's role, why not.
Because if RWill gets hurt as he tends to do in season, or Theis leaves after this season, this team is relying on GWill or Tacko to log significant minutes at the 5. Theis is the most likely big to be sent out if Ainge feels he can’t retain him this offseason at his number.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
10,468
Santa Monica
Because if RWill gets hurt as he tends to do in season, or Theis leaves after this season, this team is relying on GWill or Tacko to log significant minutes at the 5. Theis is the most likely big to be sent out if Ainge feels he can’t retain him this offseason at his number.
We're worried about next year's bench 5 already?

The 3rd string BIG/5 is the most fungible/cheapest/unimportant role in the NBA. Tacko/Grant could share the 3rd string Center role on this team and they'd still be 15-15.

2 jobs:
1. Set screens on offense
2. Play physical defense

They could have drafted Xavier Tillman in the 2nd round for that role, and they would have been perfectly fine. And Yes there were a dozen posters begging for Danny to go get him.

Use TT's $10MM over the next 2 seasons for something useful. There will be plenty of bench 5s to be had on the cheap in the offseason via FA or the 2021 draft.
 
Last edited:

Burkharts Uppercut

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 18, 2003
78
There's definitely that downside risk for depth this season, and completely agree that Timelord hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy for a whole season. It all depends on your view of TT vs replacement center which is all I expect Boogie to be. I actually think GWill would not be much of a downgrade either. He's been putrid defending at the 4, but he's always played better at small ball center. The one game he got this season in that role is where he impressed and Scal commented that this was his best role on air.

Moving on from TT increases the odds of keeping Theis for future seasons. Spending 20+ million combined for Thompson/Theis doesn't seem like Ainge's MO. I'd rather be proactive so that it's not a difficult decision.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
636
We're worried about next year's bench 5 already?
Did you miss the clause in which I wrote “Because if RWill gets hurt as he tends to do in season?” But yes, as a secondary point, I don’t foresee Ainge trading Thompson in-season when he stands to lose Theis in the offseason leaving only RWill as a legit big on the roster.

The 3rd string BIG/5 is the most fungible/cheapest/unimportant role in the NBA. Tacko/Grant could share the 3rd string Center role on this team and they'd still be 15-15.
Of course, no one is measuring the strength of the team’s bigs by the regular season record.

They could have drafted Xavier Tillman in the 2nd round for that role, and they would have been perfectly fine. And Yes there were a dozen posters begging for Danny to go get him.
Irrelevant in discussing this team or its future prospects. Didn’t happen.

Use TT's $10MM over the next 2 seasons for something useful. There will be plenty of bench 5s to be had on the cheap in the offseason via FA or the 2021 draft.
I thought that was the value of the TPE.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
10,468
Santa Monica
Irrelevant in discussing this team or its future prospects. Didn’t happen.
I thought that was the value of the TPE.
Yes, but my point is they can draft a 3rd string 5 this Summer (in the 2nd round)
or use Tacko/Grant in that role next season
or sign a cheap FA, right?

full/partial TPE should be for a wing

TT's $10MM could be used to retain Theis or TL or help get a wing this season
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
23,011
Saskatoon Canada
We need to Tito to come to the mic and remind us that if Manny hitting Kemba making shots is our biggest problem we are fine.
That's all I have. Grant Hill talked about the mess the lockdown season is and how hard it is for guys to get in rhythm. I am hanging my hat on Kemba playing better. Because, if he doesn't the team is fucked, and not much can be done.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,816
Not that it would make a significant difference, but at a minimum, I would expect him to do a very minor move to replace Jeff Teague with someone else as the 3rd PG/PG depth. He's actually been remarkably good from 3 - but given how much he's been riding the pine, it seems that CBS may have lost faith in him. On the other hand, it might be that he's just playing an appropriate amount as the 3rd string PG - which is not at all in games where your 1 and 2 PGs are available.

Second level up would be to make a minor move to upgrade from Semi to someone better than Semi at wing.

Third level up would be to commit a bit to Robert Williams, and trade TT or DT to free up the logjam. Sign someone like Cousins or make a minor trade for some scrub as the 3rd string C. Although personally, I'd love to see them use Tacko for a couple of 4-5 minute stretches every night to mess up the other team's plans.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
2,566
Cultural hub of the universe
Not that it would make a significant difference, but at a minimum, I would expect him to do a very minor move to replace Jeff Teague with someone else as the 3rd PG/PG depth. He's actually been remarkably good from 3 - but given how much he's been riding the pine, it seems that CBS may have lost faith in him. On the other hand, it might be that he's just playing an appropriate amount as the 3rd string PG - which is not at all in games where your 1 and 2 PGs are available.

Second level up would be to make a minor move to upgrade from Semi to someone better than Semi at wing.

Third level up would be to commit a bit to Robert Williams, and trade TT or DT to free up the logjam. Sign someone like Cousins or make a minor trade for some scrub as the 3rd string C. Although personally, I'd love to see them use Tacko for a couple of 4-5 minute stretches every night to mess up the other team's plans.
If Dallas can play Boban successfully, we ought to be able to get some minutes out of Tacko,
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,508
If Dallas can play Boban successfully, we ought to be able to get some minutes out of Tacko,
Boban has hardly played at all this season and he has elite offensive skills. If you can’t execute a teams defensive sets in today’s game it’s difficult to play even if you can score the way Boban can.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,816
If Dallas can play Boban successfully, we ought to be able to get some minutes out of Tacko,
Tacko is such an elite shot blocker. You really see that teams have to change their approach when he's in the game. I also think from an offensive standpoint he's good for some quick buckets - although I feel like the coaching staff needs to train him to never, never bring the ball down after he catches it out of the stratosphere.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,508
Tacko is such an elite shot blocker. You really see that teams have to change their approach when he's in the game. I also think from an offensive standpoint he's good for some quick buckets - although I feel like the coaching staff needs to train him to never, never bring the ball down after he catches it out of the stratosphere.
In 2021 most teams approach is to create open looks behind the arc. We’d essentially be conceding every defensive possession to accommodate their wishes.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
23,011
Saskatoon Canada
Boban has hardly played at all this season and he has elite offensive skills. If you can’t execute a teams defensive sets in today’s game it’s difficult to play even if you can score the way Boban can.
He is a mess physically. Not nice to say, but I doubt he will have along life.

Also he is ten times better than Tako.

I have seen him play. He looks like he is 60 years old. He has two fulltime trainers assigned to him. The game I was at Stan Vangundy was talking to the trainers before the game about his availability. I was courtside and could hear, it seemed he was day to all the time. Stan really wanted him, and the trainers were trying to stretch his back out. He is so massive it took two guys. Boban was apologetic and wanted to play, he was wincing and said he would play. Stan, for his part, wouldn't put him in. I overhead a gem. In a lull Stan Went over to him, "Hey you are hurting. Your body makes you money. You don't owe me a f---ing thing. Don't ever risk hurting yourself for a f---ing coach" Stan saw a few of us overheard, "Coaches, we're all assholes."