What to do in a pinch?

[grimshaw]

Figured instead of a reactionary roast-fest of Cora not batting Moreland in the 9th, it may be interesting to explore the merits of pinch hitting.

Baseball reference has few basic stats on team pinch hitting ,so for simplicity just using batting average here. Over the past 5 seasons the Red Sox have not been good as a pinch hitting team - just 81/296 which is a .232 batting average. I'm sure that is also the case with other AL teams whose bench isn't used to being one and done.

Most of these at bats are high leverage and often against good relievers and the best match up a team can muster. More often than not, there isn't going to be a huge difference in the quality of the hitter.

Is there perhaps something to the fact that bringing in a cold batter should only be done in the perfect circumstance rather than going strictly by the book?

 

[gryoung]

Nah — let’s move forward with the Cora roast.

His answer to the question on why he didn’t hit Moreland for Bradley was really BS.

My guess is Cora is stroking Jackie a bit and not wanting to show such an obvious lack of confidence in him.

In keeping with the spirit of the original thread, maybe Moreland’s history as a PH isn’t good. It did seem to be a strange non-move though.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Pinch hitting, with the exceptions of hitting for the pitcher (usually when you intend to remove him from the game anyway), is an over-rated maneuver. I feel like it's born of a desire for the manager to feel like he's influencing play on the field and covering his ass and little else. If he pinch hits for a guy and the pinch hitter succeeds, the manager is a genius. If he pinch hits for a guy and the pinch hitter fails, well at least the manager tried something. If he lets the guy hit for himself and he succeeds, either he was lucky it worked out or he's a genius for playing the right hunch. If he lets the guy hit for himself and he fails, the manager is asleep at the wheel and not doing his job. Can't imagine why a lot of managers use pinch hitters.

All pinch hitters in the AL this year are hitting .203 with 10 HR and 70 RBI in 718 ABs. That doesn't strike me as a consistent enough success rate to make a case in favor of pinch hitting more.

 

[joe dokes]

Nah — let’s move forward with the Cora roast.

His answer to the question on why he didn’t hit Moreland for Bradley was really BS.

My guess is Cora is stroking Jackie a bit and not wanting to show such an obvious lack of confidence in him.

In keeping with the spirit of the original thread, maybe Moreland’s history as a PH isn’t good. It did seem to be a strange non-move though.

What was his answer?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Christopher Smith‏Verified account @SmittyOnMLB 10h10 hours ago
Mitch Moreland didn't pinch hit in the ninth despite being 6-for-10 against Rodney and having a career .830 OPS as a pinch hitter.
"We've got all the lefties. That pinch hitting thing is not that easy," Alex Cora said

A weak answer for sure but as a rule I generally agree with RedHawk. Not to mention JBJ has been a better hitter than Moreland for a while now. If Moreland was going to hit I would have done it for Holt.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

JBJ has been a better hitter than Moreland for a while now.

On what planet?

JBJ had one season (2015) when he was a trivially better hitter than Moreland, and one season (2016) when he was a substantially better hitter. For the rest of their careers, including the past two years, it's been a no-contest for Moreland.

 

[Byrdbrain]

On what planet?

JBJ had one season (2015) when he was a trivially better hitter than Moreland, and one season (2016) when he was a substantially better hitter. For the rest of their careers, including the past two years, it's been a no-contest for Moreland.

Sorry I meant the past month or so, I should have been more specific.

Edit: Last 28 days:
Moreland - 200/311/260
JBJ - 234/306/391

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Sorry I meant the past month or so, I should have been more specific.

Gotcha. That's fair, and I actually think Cora made the right move standing pat in that situation, for three reasons:

1) one of the most likely positive results there, given Rodney's wildness, was a game-tying walk, which JBJ is as capable of producing as Moreland;
2) by the same token, with two outs and a guy having trouble throwing strikes, there was a high likelihood of the Sox tying but not winning the game--and pinch-hitting would have made the Sox' OF defense worse for extra innings;
3) the upside of giving JBJ an opportunity for a season-changing walkoff--and signaling to him that the manager believes he's capable of it--arguably outweighed the marginal difference in probability of a base hit between JBJ and Moreland.

 

[charlieoscar]

All pinch hitters in the AL this year are hitting .203 with 10 HR and 70 RBI in 718 ABs. That doesn't strike me as a consistent enough success rate to make a case in favor of pinch hitting more.

Red Sox pinch hitters aren't hitting well this year (.176) but they are still a little better than the pitchers are batting. You are dealing with small sample sizes, though, when looking at a team. The Red Sox are 6 for 34 with Swihart having more than one-third of the PH at bats (2 for 12), most of which came when he was getting very little playing time. Holt is 1 for 6 (.167) while he was lifetime 8 for 33 (.242). One PH in one AB gets his AVG up to .286 for the season. Moreland is 0 for 5 this year as a PH while he was .307 (23 for 75) coming into it. Two or three pinch hits in a row gets this year's average back up to norm.

If you look through the years, you find that pinch hitters do better than pitchers at the plate, overall. A problem is that we don't know how many of a batter's pinch hitting appearances were for pitchers.

 

[judyb]

Yeah, the combination of Bradley being warm lately while Moreland's been cool, and Holt being reliable at letting the Rodney types do exactly what he ended up doing there, and what Moreland's done in the past against Rodney, and how Pearce has been hitting since he got here, kind of makes any decision Cora could have made there seem like a coin flip, maybe having him PH for Devers, with Nunez available to play 3B if it ended up tied, would have seemed like a slightly better choice.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I doubt anyone could have hit those final pitches thrown by Rodney. Imagine if he could pitch like that all the time (even ball 3 was a hell of a pitch).

If you think about it, only one strike (total 12 of 25 pitches) thrown was a hit. Every other was a strike looking or a foul ball, except for the last swing by JBJ.

Rodney was excruciating last night.

...as was Barnes, who walked only one guy, but dug deep and found a way to let him score.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Red Sox pinch hitters aren't hitting well this year (.176) but they are still a little better than the pitchers are batting. You are dealing with small sample sizes, though, when looking at a team. The Red Sox are 6 for 34 with Swihart having more than one-third of the PH at bats (2 for 12), most of which came when he was getting very little playing time. Holt is 1 for 6 (.167) while he was lifetime 8 for 33 (.242). One PH in one AB gets his AVG up to .286 for the season. Moreland is 0 for 5 this year as a PH while he was .307 (23 for 75) coming into it. Two or three pinch hits in a row gets this year's average back up to norm.

If you look through the years, you find that pinch hitters do better than pitchers at the plate, overall. A problem is that we don't know how many of a batter's pinch hitting appearances were for pitchers.

Who was arguing that pinch hitters are no better than pitchers hitting? I made a point of saying that except for pinch hitting for the pitcher, pinch hitting in general is over-rated. Substituting Moreland for JBJ last night likely doesn't substantially increase the chances of scoring the tying run. It only substantially decreases the folks second-guessing Cora post-game, regardless of outcome.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Irrespective of who's been hot and whose been cold or how hard pinch hitting is or what the latest statistics are for pinch hitting this was a live or die situation. You produce now or we lose. I will take my chances on an All Star caliber player every single time over a guy who consistently struggles to hit .200.

That said...it is hard to argue about Cora's W-L record but he often does some pretty dumb things for a genius. And as my wife reminded me last night "so do you." It's sure fun being married.

 

[grimshaw]

Irrespective of who's been hot and whose been cold or how hard pinch hitting is or what the latest statistics are for pinch hitting this was a live or die situation. You produce now or we lose. I will take my chances on an All Star caliber player every single time over a guy who consistently struggles to hit .200.

Eh - Mitch is having a good year but career-wise he and JBJ (wRC+101 vs. wRC+ 90) aren't that far apart. One is trending up and one down this season.

I think there was a marginal advantage numbers wise, but it seems like a coaching philosophy to limit pinch hitting to no brainer situations for reasons we are not privy to.

Curious if he'll change course vs. the Yankees or in the playoffs.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The plot thickens with regard to Moreland and the ninth inning yesterday. He's not in the lineup today against an RHP. Perhaps he's hurt or sick and was unavailable to hit?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

And there it is...

 

[joe dokes]

So you're saying that Cora might still be a genius?

I get that Moreland is tough and that's why his teammates love him, but jeez, man, speak up once in a while when you're hurting before it gets debilitating.

 

[ehaz]

If Moreland wasn't banged up, I would have pinch hit him for Devers not Bradley. JBJ has been hot and Devers just can't seem to pull together a MLB quality at bat this season, although his talent and power masks this at times.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Devers needs to learn to go with the pitch and hit it to LF - he was off balance and pulling off the low and away change that he popped to third.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So you're saying that Cora might still be a genius?

I get that Moreland is tough and that's why his teammates love him, but jeez, man, speak up once in a while when you're hurting before it gets debilitating.

How do we know he didn't speak up? He wasn't in Wednesday's lineup either (also against a RHP) so perhaps he did speak up the minute the pain was a hindrance?He is on a 3-game hit streak so it's not clear he was hampered prior to Wednesday. Unless we know he's been trying to grind through pain for longer than that, I'm not sure what he should have been doing differently.

 

[ehaz]

Devers needs to learn to go with the pitch and hit it to LF - he was off balance and pulling off the low and away change that he popped to third.

Which worries me because we've all seen him pulverize the ball to the opposite field. I don't think Dever's problem is that he doesn't know how to go with the pitch - I think it's mainly pitch recognition.

 

[joe dokes]

How do we know he didn't speak up? He wasn't in Wednesday's lineup either (also against a RHP) so perhaps he did speak up the minute the pain was a hindrance?He is on a 3-game hit streak so it's not clear he was hampered prior to Wednesday. Unless we know he's been trying to grind through pain for longer than that, I'm not sure what he should have been doing differently.

A little hyperbole on my part after last year. You're probably right. He has had more down time lately.

 

[judyb]

It seems at least possible that Cora didn't want the other team to know that Moreland wasn't available to PH when they were making their pitching decisions. It's also possible that Moreland might have been available to PH if he'd felt better as the game went on.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It seems at least possible that Cora didn't want the other team to know that Moreland wasn't available to PH when they were making their pitching decisions. It's also possible that Moreland might have been available to PH if he'd felt better as the game went on.

Cora said exactly that this afternoon. He made no mention of Moreland's unavailability yesterday because he didn't want the Twins to know. That includes acknowledging it post-game because Moreland's status for today was still up in the air. Because Moreland says that he will be able to pinch hit should the need arise tonight, Cora felt comfortable admitting the real reason Moreland didn't play at all last night.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Cora said exactly that this afternoon. He made no mention of Moreland's unavailability yesterday because he didn't want the Twins to know. That includes acknowledging it post-game because Moreland's status for today was still up in the air. Because Moreland says that he will be able to pinch hit should the need arise tonight, Cora felt comfortable admitting the real reason Moreland didn't play at all last night.

That's just what they want you to think.