What to do about Sizemore?

[BosRedSox5]

Grady Sizemore is healthy for the first time in a long time, probably early 2009. He's playing pretty good defense, his arm looks strong as ever... but he can't hit. 

His power looks completely gone, he's slugging a pathetic .328 and he hasn't hit a home run since April 11th. Heck, the last XBH he had of any kind was May 27th. He's been terrible, and yet, for no reason at all, I have this hunch that if we dropped him, he'd catch on somewhere and turn it around offensively. 
 
Anyway, if Sizemore is fully healthy again, what's the deal. Why is he having so much trouble at the plate? Does he need new contacts ala Brian Roberts? Does he need a hitting guru to work with him day and night... or do the Red Sox need to cut bait and end the experiment? 

 

[Puffy]

I was just going to start a thread about him.  I think it's nearing cut bait time on Sizemore.  He's had 192 terrible plate appearances this season and his $250,000 incentives start kicking in at 225 PA ($250,000 for every 25 PA). He already hit one incentive for being on the roster for 60 days, with additional bonuses for 90, 120, and 150 days.
 
This isn't a case where he started slow and is working off the rust. He hit .310/.356/.429/.784 in spring training and then .343/.395/.571/.966 over the first 10 appearances of the regular season (36 PA).  He's now had another 152 PA and has put up a .187/.260/.266/.526 slash. He has plummeted after his initial brief offensive burst and he has now plateaued as possibly the worst offensive player on the team.  It's possible that he came into spring training healthy and ready to play but has just completely run out of fuel.

 

[Puffy]

Sizemore is only here until the end of the year anyway, so I don't think we have to worry too much about him going to the Oakland A's and suddenly raking. Who cares? Good for him. Whoever picks him up is taking a gamble and, even if it pays off for a couple of months, he'll be moving on next year no matter what.  
 
There is certainly a cost to the team to continue to try to play this out at the big league level. He's done more harm than good to the team and threatens to do more harm the more he plays.
 
I'd be fine in calling up Corey Brown to take his spot on the roster until Victorino returns. He plays all OF positions well. He's hit well in the minors, and has decent AAA stats over the past three years, including some power. I mean, he's 28 years old playing at AAA, so he is what he is, but I think Brown is more likely to be 2010 Darnell McDonald this year than Sizemore is at this point (he has a similar 1st round draft pick pedigree).

 

[joe dokes]

I think that if nothing changes, Victorino's return will be the end of Sizemore's run.  By then, he will have had 3 months of seeming good health, combined with spurts of both full and part-time play.  That seems like a reasonable amount of time and playing time in which to make a judgment.
 
Whether he gets released outright, or DFA'd so that (with his assent) he can play his way back at AAA is another matter.  I'm sure the sox sill let him choose his path. I liked bringing him in; its too bad it isn't working out. For him, the Sox, and baseball in general.  So it goes.
 

I'd be fine in calling up Corey Brown to take his spot on the roster until Victorino returns.
 

 
I dont think he's on the 40-man (which I think is at 39 and Lavarnway on the 60-DL). may not be a big deal, but I dont know if Brown's worth the roster move.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I have to think the only thing keeping him on the roster at this point is Victorino being on the DL.  Sizemore being the only other guy on the roster capable of playing at least a competent CF and a more than decent RF is all that's keeping him alive (i.e. the alternative of Nava or Gomes or Holt in RF or god forbid CF is his only salvation).  I think they cut bait as soon as Victorino is activated, assuming nothing else significant changes in the roster between now and then.

 

[ivanvamp]

If not DFA, he must be the 5th OF, to be used for defensive purposes and pinch-running and maybe a few ABs here and there against RHP.  But…..that's pretty much it.
 
If you can find an upgrade, please do.  

 

[semsox]

I recall in one of the numerous feelgood articles written about Sizemore earlier in the season, it was mentioned that while he was relatively healthy, he would likely continue improving into the season, and wouldn't be back to near full capacity until sometime in the middle of the season (say July or so).
 
Additionally, at the end of the day, we're talking about a guy who hadn't played in a live game in over 2+ years. While it's great to see that his athleticism has allowed him to round back into playable form in the field, is it really a huge surprise that he's struggling at the plate? Pitch recognition, batting mechanics, etc. are all skills that can easily get out of whack or atrophy without constant practice, and he's had all of 200 PA's in the last 3 years. I wish we could stash him in AAA to really work on his hitting, because I still think there is upside underneath all of the rust at the plate.

 

[glennhoffmania]

They just gave Drew $10m for no reason so I don't think Sizemore hitting his incentives is the issue.  The issue is that he's a terrible hitter now.  His OPS is almost as low as Jeter's.  It's time to cut bait and try other options, whatever they may be.

 

[Doctor G]

Grady Sizemore is healthy for the first time in a long time, probably early 2009. He's playing pretty good defense, his arm looks strong as ever... but he can't hit. 

His power looks completely gone, he's slugging a pathetic .328 and he hasn't hit a home run since April 11th. Heck, the last XBH he had of any kind was May 27th. He's been terrible, and yet, for no reason at all, I have this hunch that if we dropped him, he'd catch on somewhere and turn it around offensively. 
 
Anyway, if Sizemore is fully healthy again, what's the deal. Why is he having so much trouble at the plate? Does he need new contacts ala Brian Roberts? Does he need a hitting guru to work with him day and night... or do the Red Sox need to cut bait and end the experiment? 

His legs are not what they were prior to his  knee surgeries. Thus no power. He is what he would have been at age 38 if he hadn't been hurt. Maybe not even that 

 

[Puffy]

I recall in one of the numerous feelgood articles written about Sizemore earlier in the season, it was mentioned that while he was relatively healthy, he would likely continue improving into the season, and wouldn't be back to near full capacity until sometime in the middle of the season (say July or so).

 
I recall this analysis as well and it's turned out completely backwards. He started off well and has continued to decline throughout the season, rather than the opposite. It seems more likely that he's either hurt, or there's nothing left in the tank.

 

[smastroyin]

I think they are going to at least see what happens if they make him a part-time player when Victorino comes back.  It seems his struggles really got worse after the announcement that he was going to be full time.  The problem with this idea of course is that it seems Victorino is never really going to come back.  (Right now he plans for the end of next week)

 

[jsinger121]

I'd DFA Sizemore to avoid paying him any more money. They just flushed 10 million dollars down the drain with Stephen Drew. No reason to piss anymore money away on a player that can't play anymore.

 

[joe dokes]

I'd DFA Sizemore to avoid paying him any more money. They just flushed 10 million dollars down the drain with Stephen Drew. No reason to piss anymore money away on a player that can't play anymore.

 
Putting aside whether getting Drew is "flushing away" the money, the team still have to pay Sizemore his guarantee if they release him.
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/11/5495724/grady-sizemore-red-sox-contract
 
He's guaranteeed 750K for the season. Another 250K for making the team. Another 250K each for being on the roster for 30 and 60 days (with another if he makes 90 (probably end of June; and then 120 and 150). So that might save them 750K (for the 90, 120, and 150 bonues).
Plate appearnace incetives start at 225 (he's at 192); 250K for every 25. Maybe he'd get to 300, 325. So that's maybe another $1M.
 
So releasing him might keep them from paying $1.75M.  I dont think they care (or should care) about that kind of money.
 
Teams that release players to save money (or play guys *because* of the money they make) are losing teams. Well-run teams release players who can't play. If Sizemore can't play, he should be released.  I am guessing that the discussions of whether to relase him will *not* involve how much money they'll save by doing so.

 

[jsinger121]

 
Putting aside whether getting Drew is "flushing away" the money, the team still have to pay Sizemore his guarantee if they release him.
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/11/5495724/grady-sizemore-red-sox-contract
 
He's guaranteeed 750K for the season. Another 250K for making the team. Another 250K each for being on the roster for 30 and 60 days (with another if he makes 90 (probably end of June; and then 120 and 150). So that might save them 750K (for the 90, 120, and 150 bonues).
Plate appearnace incetives start at 225 (he's at 192); 250K for every 25. Maybe he'd get to 300, 325. So that's maybe another $1M.
 
So releasing him might keep them from paying $1.75M.  I dont think they care (or should care) about that kind of money.
 
Teams that release players to save money (or play guys *because* of the money they make) are losing teams. Well-run teams release players who can't play. If Sizemore can't play, he should be released.  I am guessing that the discussions of whether to relase him will *not* involve how much money they'll save by doing so.

 
The Red Sox are a losing team and Sizemore can't play anymore. No reason to keep this guy around to pay him. 

 

[joe dokes]

 
The Red Sox are a losing team and Sizemore can't play anymore. No reason to keep this guy around to pay him. 

 
And as soon as they have another outfielder that can play CF in a pinch (Victorino, for example) they probably will.

 

[Puffy]

 
And as soon as they have another outfielder that can play CF in a pinch (Victorino, for example) they probably will.

 
They have Corey Brown in Pawtucket, who is probably a better defensive centerfielder than Sizemore at this point, and has some chance of catching fire offensively, albeit in limited playing time. If he doesn't work out, he can go back to Pawtucket when Victorino returns or when the team finds someone better. I think Cherington has to protect Farrell from himself, since he's going to keep running Sizemore out there 4 or 5 nights a week.

 

[erfus]

I think they are going to at least see what happens if they make him a part-time player when Victorino comes back.  It seems his struggles really got worse after the announcement that he was going to be full time.  The problem with this idea of course is that it seems Victorino is never really going to come back.  (Right now he plans for the end of next week)

 
I was wondering that as well and Harold Reynolds was speculating on the Saturday broadcast that Sizemore's numbers are suffering because he can't sustain a near-everyday schedule.  It's not a good thing to be thinking along the same lines as Harold.  Anyway, I did a quick manual spreadsheet check of his game logs for non-back-to-back appearances (performance in games played with at least one day off beforehand) and it's not terribly illuminating.
 
15 for 60, 10 walks:11 Ks, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI.  .250/.357/.330

 

[BosRedSox5]

Why is there all this Corey Brown love? He's not on the 40 man. Is he worth burning a spot on? I don't think so.

 

[jsinger121]

Why is there all this Corey Brown love? He's not on the 40 man. Is he worth burning a spot on? I don't think so.

 
Is it worth keeping Sizemore to do nothing and pay him his bonus money? I don't think so. Brown will be a minimum salary guy who you could dump at any minute.

 

[Puffy]

Why is there all this Corey Brown love? He's not on the 40 man. Is he worth burning a spot on? I don't think so.

 
Not love. He's an acceptable interim 5th outfielder who could well be better than Sizemore. At least Farrell won't play him every night. There will be room on the 40-man when they dump Sizemore. If they need room on the 40-man again, they can dump Brown.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Would Brown be any better than Sizemore? IMO we'd just be losing a 40 man spot. 

 

[joe dokes]

 
Not love. He's an acceptable interim 5th outfielder who could well be better than Sizemore. At least Farrell won't play him every night. There will be room on the 40-man when they dump Sizemore. If they need room on the 40-man again, they can dump Brown.

 
 
How do you know? If Farrell is so dumb that his stupidity keeps him stupidly playing Sizemore, what's to stop him from playing Brown just as much?
 
 
( I dont buy the "we must cut the shitty players to save Farrell from himself" crap...just playing along with the hypothetical)
 
And "just dumping Brown" means they've tossed a guy from the organization so he could play for 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[Al Zarilla]

They just gave Drew $10m for no reason so I don't think Sizemore hitting his incentives is the issue.  The issue is that he's a terrible hitter now.  His OPS is almost as low as Jeter's.  It's time to cut bait and try other options, whatever they may be.

You mean the all star game starting shortstop? Yeah, nothing to do with Sizemore.
 
Maybe Farrell and Ben think he'll all of a sudden "get it" again, and are afraid to lose a guy who could be good on a struggling offensive team. One problem is that there aren't any comps for this type of thing, i.e., position players that are out of baseball for years. If you ask him how he feels as a hitter compared with his great years, I wonder what he says.

 

[bobesox]

10 million for Drew is not as bad as it looks as you can trade him at some point.

 

[ALiveH]

Sizemore is terrible.  It was a good gamble, but after 2 months it's time to cut bait.  Alex Hassan come on down!  (and if he can't hack it bring in Mookie in a couple months)

 

[radsoxfan]

Grady Sizemore is healthy for the first time in a long time, probably early 2009. 

 
So Grady is healthy enough to be on the field.  I'm not sure we know if he is "healthy".  In fact, if I had to guess, it's very likely he will never be healthy.
 
He has a degenerative condition of both knees.  On a micro-level, this will probably wax and wane.  Some days will be worse than others, sometimes related to how much he has been stressing his knees recently.  On a macro-level, his knees will likely continue to deteriorate (though of course we don't know how quickly that will happen).  
 
Of course I have zero inside information, but it's unlikely he will ever be healthy in the sense people want him to be (i.e. the 31 year old version of how Grady Sizemore would have played in an alternate universe with 2 different knees). It's nice for Grady that he hasn't been on the DL, and he has been able to get on the field. But chances are, he isn't going to magically be healthy.
 
The hope is that with more time, he can turn this diminished version of himself into a useful player.  It's not impossible, as maybe he still needs to get his timing back and relearn how to play in his current state.  Personally, I'd rather he try to do that for another team (or in the minors), but while he is still getting ABs with the Red Sox, all we can do is hope he turns it around. 

 

[Plympton91]

 
So Grady is healthy enough to be on the field.  I'm not sure we know if he is "healthy".  In fact, if I had to guess, it's very likely he will never be healthy.
 
He has a degenerative condition of both knees.  On a micro-level, this will probably wax and wane.  Some days will be worse than others, sometimes related to how much he has been stressing his knees recently.  On a macro-level, his knees will likely continue to deteriorate (though of course we don't know how quickly that will happen).  
 
Of course I have zero inside information, but it's unlikely he will ever be healthy in the sense people want him to be (i.e. the 31 year old version of how Grady Sizemore would have played in an alternate universe with 2 different knees). It's nice for Grady that he hasn't been on the DL, and he has been able to get on the field. But chances are, he isn't going to magically be healthy.
 
The hope is that with more time, he can turn this diminished version of himself into a useful player.  It's not impossible, as maybe he still needs to get his timing back and relearn how to play in his current state.  Personally, I'd rather he try to do that for another team (or in the minors), but while he is still getting ABs with the Red Sox, all we can do is hope he turns it around. 

 
This is a very eloquent and informative post from a medical expert that says exactly what I was saying at the beginning of May.  If Sizemore magically performs well for some other team at some other time, then that's great for him.  The Red Sox can't wait any longer for him to get it together.  He should have been released and replaced by Daniel Nava as soon as Nava started hitting righthanded pitching again in AAA.

 

[AB in DC]

And yet his OPS is still 100 points higher than Nava's at the moment.

 

[Plympton91]

And yet his OPS is still 100 points higher than Nava's at the moment.

 
Yes, because Nava started the season in a horrific slump and then they decided that the option value of Sizemore was greater than the likelihood of Nava recovering his stroke.  They chose poorly.
 
Although, I'd gather that Sizemore's OPS is quite a bit higher than Jackie Bradley Kr's as well.  Maybe they should send him to AAA, put Victorino in CF, and let Sizemore keep struggling.  What difference, at this point, does it make.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

And yet his OPS is still 100 points higher than Nava's at the moment.

 
Irrelevant argument. Instead of looking at Nava's small sample size from this season, how about we realize that Nava is a platoon player with Gomes, then compare Nava's career stats vs righties to what Sizemore is offering us at this exact moment.
 
The team can afford to be patient with JBJ, as he's young and could still figure it out. This isn't the case with Grady. He's not playing well, chances are he's (permanently) damaged goods, and there's only a minute chance he becomes useful soon...meanwhile, the team is circling the drain. If Grady's resurgence happens with another team, so be it, but the 2014 Sox can't keep putting him out there when they can be giving ABs to young, defensively-superior players who need the ABs (Bradley) or players who've been useful a LOT more recently (Nava.)

 

[nattysez]

https://twitter.com/brianmacp/status/476831204340404224
 
Shane Vic is starting rehab and Andres Torres is heading to Lowell.  I don't think Sizemore sees his next roster/PA bonus (which would happen in 33 PA/17 days).

 

[Stitch01]

 
Yes, because Nava started the season in a horrific slump and then they decided that the option value of Sizemore was greater than the likelihood of Nava recovering his stroke.  They chose poorly.
 
Although, I'd gather that Sizemore's OPS is quite a bit higher than Jackie Bradley Kr's as well.  Maybe they should send him to AAA, put Victorino in CF, and let Sizemore keep struggling.  What difference, at this point, does it make.

 Nope.  Risking 0.1 wins or whatever fraction was definitely worth the option, particularly with Nava mired in a massive slump.
 
Agreed that its probably time to cut bait with Sizemore once Victorino gets back though.

 

[EricFeczko]

 
Yes, because Nava started the season in a horrific slump and then they decided that the option value of Sizemore was greater than the likelihood of Nava recovering his stroke.  They chose poorly.
 
Although, I'd gather that Sizemore's OPS is quite a bit higher than Jackie Bradley Kr's as well.  Maybe they should send him to AAA, put Victorino in CF, and let Sizemore keep struggling.  What difference, at this point, does it make.

Actually, the difference is only about 40 points. Sizemore is hitting .220/.291/.328, for an OPS of .619. JBJ is hitting .203/.286/.294 for an OPS of .580.
The difference is in the splits (SSS issues abound). JBJ is hitting lefties (70 wRC+) better than righties (52 wRC+), while Sizemore is hitting righties (86 wRC+) and not lefties (27 wRC+).
Of course, Nava is hitting righties about as well this year (82 wRC+) as Sizemore, and Victorino is at least average against righties (94 wRC+ career), so once victorino is healthy. Sizemore should be dropped.
 

 

[dbn]

I think it's pretty simple. 
 
Sizemore was a low-risk lottery ticket. I still believe that signing him for the contract that they gave him was absolutely a good move, even though it appears it will not pay off.
 
Sizemore has been given a large length of rope, which was also a good decision because of the combination of: (A) you shouldn't judge anyone on a small sample let alone a former star who hasn't been healthy for years until now, and (B) due to injuries and underperformance, there hasn't been a great alternative.
 
If he were under control under reasonable contract-circumstances for more than the rest of 2014, I think there would be some argument for keeping him around. If he is blocking a better alternative from either the 25- or 40-man roster, I think there is good reason to DFA him.
 
At present, keep him on the 25 man. When Vic returns, re-asses. Does Bradley need to be sent down? Is everyone else healthy? Personally, I'd DFA him then unless something changes before then. If something does change (such as an injury or the need to send Bradley to AAA, which I'm not at the moment in support of), keep him and monitor Brown. If Brown shows he can field and might hit better than Sizemore, then DFA Sizemore and replace him with Brown.
 
The only Boston Red Sox OFer who is hitting right now is their AAAA utility infielder.
 
I suspect this is also the FO's thinking.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
 
At present, keep him on the 25 man. When Vic returns, re-asses. Does Bradley need to be sent down? Is everyone else healthy? Personally, I'd DFA him then unless something changes before then. If something does change (such as an injury or the need to send Bradley to AAA, which I'm not at the moment in support of), keep him and monitor Brown. If Brown shows he can field and might hit better than Sizemore, then DFA Sizemore and replace him with Brown.
 
The only Boston Red Sox OFer who is hitting right now is their AAAA utility infielder.
 
I suspect this is also the FO's thinking.

 
 
On the Sunday night game Kruk mentioned his pre-game conversation with Farrell re Sizemore, and the takeaway from that was Grady is dead man walking in Farrell's mind.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I think it's pretty simple. 
 
Sizemore was a low-risk lottery ticket. I still believe that signing him for the contract that they gave him was absolutely a good move, even though it appears it will not pay off.
 
Sizemore has been given a large length of rope, which was also a good decision because of the combination of: (A) you shouldn't judge anyone on a small sample let alone a former star who hasn't been healthy for years until now, and (B) due to injuries and underperformance, there hasn't been a great alternative.
 
If he were under control under reasonable contract-circumstances for more than the rest of 2014, I think there would be some argument for keeping him around. If he is blocking a better alternative from either the 25- or 40-man roster, I think there is good reason to DFA him.
 
At present, keep him on the 25 man. When Vic returns, re-asses. Does Bradley need to be sent down? Is everyone else healthy? Personally, I'd DFA him then unless something changes before then. If something does change (such as an injury or the need to send Bradley to AAA, which I'm not at the moment in support of), keep him and monitor Brown. If Brown shows he can field and might hit better than Sizemore, then DFA Sizemore and replace him with Brown.
 
The only Boston Red Sox OFer who is hitting right now is their AAAA utility infielder.
 
I suspect this is also the FO's thinking.

Sizemore was low risk in the sense that he was cheap with the (remote) possibility of huge upside. BUT .. The real cost was the lost opportunity to bring in a real 4th OF .. roster spots on the 25 and 40 man rosters are gold.

 

[Plympton91]

Do you have someone in mind they passed up on and would have been an improvement?

Daniel Nava.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Sizemore was low risk in the sense that he was cheap with the (remote) possibility of huge upside. BUT .. The real cost was the lost opportunity to bring in a real 4th OF .. roster spots on the 25 and 40 man rosters are gold.

 
Yes, soon Sizemore can be golfing with Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Matt Mantei, and Wade Miller.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Do you have someone in mind they passed up on and would have been an improvement?

Well, to be fair .. remember there was a big debate over a 4th OF (someone like Rajah Davis as an example). But that would have meant getting rid of one of Carp/Nava/Gomes. I vastly preferred the latter as opposed to someone like Davis. Davis has his pluses .. He can hit LHs and can run .. But he's a butcher in the OF. You're right .. There weren't that many obvious alternatives.

Sizemore was supposed to be the starting CF .. Bradley was recalled when Vic got hurt the first time.

Who knows if they would have pursued a decent backup CF if not for the Sizemore experiment.

 

[DanoooME]

The names generally bandied about that the Sox missed out on are Chris Young, who is awful and cost $7.5M, and Rajai Davis- who got $15M guaranteed. Can anyone explain why Davis would have come to the Sox instead of the Tigers? With Bradley, Victorino, and Gomes / Nava installed as the OF (and Carp a safe bet to make the team)? The biggest issue here is that they determined JBJ was ready for a full time gig, and he has been one of the worst offensive players in the league. Not only that, but Victorino has been hurt all year, and Nava and Carp were both awful. Sizemore hasn't helped either. Last year and this year are really the contrasts in outcomes when everything / nothing goes right. No matter how smart the organization or how much of an advantage you are building, when players get hurt and / or underperform, there's often not a lot you can do.

Let's pretend the Sox signed Davis instead of Sizemore, for example. Would it really matter?

 
Yeah, there was no way he was coming here since it was his first time in free agency and he was on record as saying he was looking for a starting gig.
 

Since joining the Blue Jays prior to the 2011 season, Davis has been primarily regarded as a part-time player. That's something he hopes to change this offseason, as playing time appears to be his No. 1 priority when it comes to choosing his next destination.
 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Pretty sure BC was implying there was a trade or FA he thought would have been a better option. But thank you for answering the question I asked him.

As mentioned I would have preferred any of Nava, Gomes or Carp over Sizemore .. But could have been persuaded that some other 4th OF type .. Think Denorfia .. Would have been an upgrade ..

But I can understand the main problem .. They wanted Bradley to get a real shot in CF .. So you can't bring in another regular .. Any acquired OF has to be a backup .. Where options are limited. So they hoped Bradley , backed up by Vic would get it done.

But along comes Sizemore and the Sox get visions of getting a superstar for free .. Half this board had the same visions. They rolled the dice .. Oh well ..

It hasn't really mattered .. When ALL your options suck what can you do?

He's gone when Victorino gets back ..