What does 2023 look like?

[RS2004foreever]

"Teams just don't "pry away" talent from small market teams anymore. "

Even the Rays are now signing their good players to long contracts when they are very young. Wander Franco is signed through 2033. Brandon Lowe is signed through 2026.

Meanwhile, the Astros moved on from their 26-year-old all-star Carlos Correa in 2021. And won the world series in 2022. They did this because they had someone on the farm that was ready. And here again the Rays are a good example too. The Rays traded Willie Ademes for Drew Rassmussen in May of 2021 - because Franco was ready and Adames was expendable.

The simple fact is the Red Sox are not generating major league talent through their organization. The last all-star the Red Sox produced was Devers - and he came up in 2017. Bogaerts and Betts were Theo signings, and in fact he is the ONLY GM the Red Sox have had in the recent past that was able to win championships and generate home grown talent. Charington drafted Devers.

This is what Chiam was hired to fix. Because the days of teams just giving away young talent are over.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

"Teams just don't "pry away" talent from small market teams anymore. "

Even the Rays are now signing their good players to long contracts when they are very young. Wander Franco is signed through 2033. Brandon Lowe is signed through 2026.

Meanwhile, the Astros moved on from their 26-year-old all-star Carlos Correa in 2021. And won the world series in 2022. They did this because they had someone on the farm that was ready. And here again the Rays are a good example too. The Rays traded Willie Ademes for Drew Rassmussen in May of 2021 - because Franco was ready and Adames was expendable.

The simple fact is the Red Sox are not generating major league talent through their organization. The last all-star the Red Sox produced was Devers - and he came up in 2017. Bogaerts and Betts were Theo signings, and in fact he is the ONLY GM the Red Sox have had in the recent past that was able to win championships and generate home grown talent. Charington drafted Devers.

This is what Chiam was hired to fix. Because the days of teams just giving away young talent are over.

There's consistent turnover of players in the minor leagues. Professional baseball players typically spend between 4-7 years in the minor leagues. By that time most players will have either been promoted to major leagues or will have dropped out of pro baseball altogether. It may be the case that the Red Sox need to take a really close look at their player evaluation and development philosophy and program.

What Is The Average Time Spent In Minor League Baseball? - Stick & Bat (stickandbat.com)

 

[McSweeny]

Ugh. It’s been 4 years since we’ve been able to focus on the present.

Except for 2021 when the Red Sox were two games away from playing in the World Series, of course.

 

[Quatchie]

Except for 2021 when the Red Sox were two games away from playing in the World Series, of course.

More obvious by the day that was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated. Everything but that run has been a disaster. I agree Bloom should get credit there, but it's also a clear outlier.

 

[Quatchie]

I said this is one of the worst rosters in the AL, I will conceed Oakland is the worst. Someone else mentioned Detroit, Devers aside- I do not think there is a big gap between the Red Sox roster and the Tigers.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

More obvious by the day that was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated. Everything but that run has been a disaster. I agree Bloom should get credit there, but it's also a clear outlier.

So then give 2022 the same treatment. Why wasn’t that an outlier?
Any team that makes it to the WS likely has a lot of luck- in health, players having an outlier year, a bullpen arm finding a groove for 4 weeks…. The dismissal of ‘21 is so confounding to me. I don’t think people do that with ‘13….. the rare WS victory by steamrolling regular season perfectly constructed teams are probably as rare as the lucky ones. Bloom put together a good supporting cast with the remnants of Dombrowski’s team in the chance that things went right…. They’d compete. Call it a good fucking job and let it go

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

More obvious by the day that was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated. Everything but that run has been a disaster. I agree Bloom should get credit there, but it's also a clear outlier.

So was 2013, but I enjoyed it almost as much as 2004, which REALLY seemed like a fluke (down Three games to None in the ALCS??), especially considering it hadn’t happened in 80+ years.

 

[tims4wins]

Except for 2021 when the Red Sox were two games away from playing in the World Series, of course.

Yes they were close in 2021, but even at the time it wasn't about winning the World Series in the moment, it was about building toward the future. The team had a ton of stopgaps. It wasn't the start of a run like the 2016 playoffs were.

 

[LogansDad]

So was 2013, but I enjoyed it almost as much as 2004, which REALLY seemed like a fluke (down Three games to None in the ALCS??), especially considering it hadn’t happened in 80+ years.

I mean, technically, so was 2018, something the Red Sox have never before and never again done in their history, right?

Completely ignoring a season where the team went to the ALCS as a fluke is such a "toxic fan" way of thinking, that if someone says that I consider using my ignore function for the first time since I have been here.

 

[YTF]

There's consistent turnover of players in the minor leagues. Professional baseball players typically spend between 4-7 years in the minor leagues. By that time most players will have either been promoted to major leagues or will have dropped out of pro baseball altogether. It may be the case that the Red Sox need to take a really close look at their player evaluation and development philosophy and program.

What Is The Average Time Spent In Minor League Baseball? - Stick & Bat (stickandbat.com)

I'm curious to see if/how this changes in the next few years given the restructuring of MiLB. With less available spots, will those MiLB roster spots need to turn over more quickly?

 

[jbupstate]

All this team needs is an uptick in starting pitching to be a plus .500 team. The offense is competitive and players counted on to hit have not found their stride. The bullpen is excellent.

The Sox offense is 3rd in MLB in runs scored without Story, Casas, Yoshida, Mookie, Ben10 and Xander in the lineup mashing. The Padres with a gazillion spent on hitting have scored 14 less runs in 1 more game.
You keep Whitlock in the rotation because it’s a huge lift if he’s better than average. You have patience with Sale because he’s a good pitcher coming off injury. You continue to develop Bello, Whickowski, Houck and hope to catch lightning in bottle for an unexpected source (Paxton?).

The team isn’t championship caliber. But does anyone really think a team constructed with so few long term contracts today isn’t setting up for lower minors graduating to Fenway AND dropping big $$$ in two years?

Of course the people who can only comment on Bloom are dead silent about the great DD Philly juggernaut being 5-10 and a -27 run differential.

Sure things can go off the rails but .500+ and a fun offense isn’t the worst thing. The real tough part is the AL East in a monster.

 

[lexrageorge]

Ugh. It’s been 4 years since we’ve been able to focus on the present.

And to avoid a big thread derail, my conclusion about focusing on the future can of course be revisited if the Sox were to go on a run over the next 6 weeks or so. But so far in this very short segment of a season is that we have a roster that seems to be living up to its prior expectations - mediocre when you average everything out. Doesn't seem like a team that is "one player away", and so going all in to acquire vets at the expense of the system's few blue chip prospects would land us right back to the same point again next season, which seems less than ideal.

The other reality is that it takes 5-6 amateur drafts to build a team in this era, and Bloom has had 3 so far, and one of those was truncated.

 

[pk1627]

More obvious by the day that was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated. Everything but that run has been a disaster. I agree Bloom should get credit there, but it's also a clear outlier.

Agreed. Everything but the winning has been all losses.

 

[Pandemonium67]

I feel Q's pain. It's been an entire year and a half since the Sox were almost in the World Series.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

We are starting to sound like Colts fans with this “two games from the World Series” thing

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We are starting to sound like Colts fans with this “two games from the World Series” thing

Jesus Christ. No one's looking to raise a fucking banner for that season. But if we're going to evaluate Bloom's and the franchise's performance over the last few years, we can't leave it out like it never happened.

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

Jesus Christ. No one's looking to raise a fucking banner for that season. But if we're going to evaluate Bloom's and the franchise's performance over the last few years, we can't leave it out like it never happened.

2021 shouldn't be erased from memory or discussion when evaluating Bloom (though there are people in here arguing that this is really Bloom's first year, so maybe the credit should go to Dombrowski...)

But having said that, everyone knows how fluky the MLB postseason is. And in that sense, repeating "2 games from the World Series" over and over again is somewhat disingenuous. Sure, it's technically true, but it doesn't accurately describe the talent level of a team that actually only barely snuck into the postseason at all.

If you're simply trying to evaluate the quality of a given team, looking at wins and losses is far more accurate than looking at either postseason results or division standing. In Bloom's tenure, the Red Sox have finished in the following positions out of 30: 27, 7, and 14. And given that they're projected again to again be the in the 14-20 range, I think it's completely reasonable and fair to call 2021 a fluke.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

2021 shouldn't be erased from memory or discussion when evaluating Bloom (though there are people in here arguing that this is really Bloom's first year, so maybe the credit should go to Dombrowski...)

But having said that, everyone knows how fluky the MLB postseason is. And in that sense, repeating "2 games from the World Series" over and over again is somewhat disingenuous. Sure, it's technically true, but it doesn't accurately describe the talent level of a team that actually only barely snuck into the postseason at all.

If you're simply trying to evaluate the quality of a given team, looking at wins and losses is far more accurate than looking at either postseason results or division standing. In Bloom's tenure, the Red Sox have finished in the following positions out of 30: 27, 7, and 14. And given that they're projected again to again be the in the 14-20 range, I think it's completely reasonable and fair to call 2021 a fluke.

No argument from me that 2021 might have been a fluke. So was 2013. A coming together of disparate parts in just the right way at just the right time to succeed in a time of rebuilding. Guess Ben Cherington was a failure too, despite laying the foundation for the 2016-2018 run.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

2021 shouldn't be erased from memory or discussion when evaluating Bloom (though there are people in here arguing that this is really Bloom's first year, so maybe the credit should go to Dombrowski...)

But having said that, everyone knows how fluky the MLB postseason is. And in that sense, repeating "2 games from the World Series" over and over again is somewhat disingenuous. Sure, it's technically true, but it doesn't accurately describe the talent level of a team that actually only barely snuck into the postseason at all.

If you're simply trying to evaluate the quality of a given team, looking at wins and losses is far more accurate than looking at either postseason results or division standing. In Bloom's tenure, the Red Sox have finished in the following positions out of 30: 27, 7, and 14. And given that they're projected again to again be the in the 14-20 range, I think it's completely reasonable and fair to call 2021 a fluke.

Yeah that’s me saying this is Blooms “first year”. Apparently asking posters to use context and their imagination while reading is too hard…. So I’ll be as clear as possible- look at the ratio of the teams personnel and tell me what percentage was Dombrowski and what was Bloom. This is the first year where it is a majority of his- specifically regarding the impact players. Sale is still Dombrowski, Devers was extended under Bloom so I’m putting him as a Bloom guy now.
Most people really consider the late 90’s era Yankees as Gene Michaels teams despite the fact that Cashman was the GM by the time they ran away from the league

 

[gammoseditor]

Yeah that’s me saying this is Blooms “first year”. Apparently asking posters to use context and their imagination while reading is too hard…. So I’ll be as clear as possible- look at the ratio of the teams personnel and tell me what percentage was Dombrowski and what was Bloom. This is the first year where it is a majority of his- specifically regarding the impact players. Sale is still Dombrowski, Devers was extended under Bloom so I’m putting him as a Bloom guy now.
Most people really consider the late 90’s era Yankees as Gene Michaels teams despite the fact that Cashman was the GM by the time they ran away from the league

It’s also interesting to look at the fangraphs depth charts of some top teams. They list the year each player was acquired. The core of the Rays was built prior to Chaim taking over. Same with the Yankees.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

 

[YTF]

All this team needs is an uptick in starting pitching to be a plus .500 team. The offense is competitive and players counted on to hit have not found their stride. The bullpen is excellent.

The Sox offense is 3rd in MLB in runs scored without Story, Casas, Yoshida, Mookie, Ben10 and Xander in the lineup mashing. The Padres with a gazillion spent on hitting have scored 14 less runs in 1 more game.
You keep Whitlock in the rotation because it’s a huge lift if he’s better than average. You have patience with Sale because he’s a good pitcher coming off injury. You continue to develop Bello, Whickowski, Houck and hope to catch lightning in bottle for an unexpected source (Paxton?).

The team isn’t championship caliber. But does anyone really think a team constructed with so few long term contracts today isn’t setting up for lower minors graduating to Fenway AND dropping big $$$ in two years?

Of course the people who can only comment on Bloom are dead silent about the great DD Philly juggernaut being 5-10 and a -27 run differential.

Sure things can go off the rails but .500+ and a fun offense isn’t the worst thing. The real tough part is the AL East in a monster.

You might want to sit down, I've got something that I think you should know.

 

[jbupstate]

You might want to sit down, I've got something that I think you should know.

What’s that?

The Sox are 3rd in runs and those players are gone and the Sox aren’t paying hundreds of millions to be 2nd in runs scored?

And still would have SP issues?

 

[RobertS975]

The 2022 team was basically 2nd in runs scored behind the Yankees, more or less tied with Houston but it was nearly the worst in runs allowed as well.

 

[thepriceisright]

I said this is one of the worst rosters in the AL, I will conceed Oakland is the worst. Someone else mentioned Detroit, Devers aside- I do not think there is a big gap between the Red Sox roster and the Tigers.

This is a pretty hilarious take. Even if you just look at the bullpens, the Red Sox are far superior. Not to mention the fact that they're better at at least 2/3 outfield positions and arguably every infield position.

 

[jmcc5400]

I did this manually, so I probably missed a game here or there, but by my count, the AL East is 38-16 when they’re not playing each other. That includes a lot of games against Detroit and Oakland, but it’s still ridiculous.

 

[BaseballJones]

So far 2023 looks like a total roller coaster that ends up where it started. In this case…. .500.

 

[bluefenderstrat]

So far 2023 looks like a total roller coaster that ends up where it started. In this case…. .500.

The coaster could even out into more of a log flume ride maybe--I'm not sure which I'd prefer if the end result is the same.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

So far 2023 looks like a total roller coaster that ends up where it started. In this case…. .500.

All a team has to do to end up at 87 wins is win one more than they lose each month. I think this team can do that. Yes, I’m one of the optimists.

 

[Rovin Romine]

So far 2023 looks like a total roller coaster that ends up where it started. In this case…. .500.

Well, there are patterns - SSS nonwithstanding. Duvall's epic starting streak mitigated the crappy starts from the rotation the first time through.

Now, during the third pass through we're getting a bit more more consistency out of our starters, and our lineup remains competitive, despite the loss of Duvall, and at points Yoshida.

At this point I remain optimistic about the season. The pitching in particular has shown more depth to it than I thought it would - it seems everyone has logged some great innings at points. Consistency going forward is the key. Whomever ends up in the rotation (Bello, Paxton?) is going to push a good arm (or two) into the bullpen, creating more depth in the staff.

Likewise, at the plate nobody looks out of their depth as was the case last year. Casas has displayed such a good eye, even during the slow start, that I'm not too worried about him.

I think last year at times felt like they were playing .490 ball and hoping for reinforcements/development. This year feels more like playing .510 ball and hoping for reinforcements/development.

 

[Toe Nash]

I mean, technically, so was 2018, something the Red Sox have never before and never again done in their history, right?

Completely ignoring a season where the team went to the ALCS as a fluke is such a "toxic fan" way of thinking, that if someone says that I consider using my ignore function for the first time since I have been here.

See, this bothers me because both years were flukey. It is a fluke in that it's not predictive because they were carried by some stars who are now gone or old, with great years by some veterans, and they didn't have any young talent coming, which is what this conversation is about and has been discussed a lot. We're not ignoring it but it's not a consistent way to build a team and not having stars is why you get years like 2022 or this year where we're hoping that 34+ year old players with tons of miles can save our offense and pitching staff.

You can predict that Mookie Betts is going to be good every year, that's why he's paid hundreds of millions. But there isn't a MLB GM who can consistently get significantly above average performances from the waiver wire and bargain FAs so if your team is built on that it's going to oscillate between good and bad. Maybe the difference is that some people think good GMs can do this, but I don't think that is true and Chaim so far hasn't been above average overall on picking up guys.

The 2018 Red Sox top players by bWAR were Betts, Martinez, Sale, Xander, Benintendi, Price, Porcello, JBJ, E-Rod, Kimbrel. 5 guys they developed, 5 solid acquisitions they used money or prospects to get. That's a great way to build a team out, but of players with significant playing time under 28 years old, only Devers is still on the team. In the next few years, Benintendi regressed, we know what happened with Betts, and the older guys fell off or departed. Only Xander kept producing at a high level. And, the younger guys they added did not turn into much more than average regulars (Verdugo) because they had drafted so poorly.

In 2021 they had a nice year but it came from: Xander, Kiké, Eovaldi, Devers, JD, Whitlock, Pivetta, Renfroe, Verdugo, E-Rod, nice years from some older players and guys on shorter deals, no real stars outside of Xander. So not surprising that they were worse in 2022 when many of those players fell off and they got a lot of replacement level or worse performances from the back of the roster. You can look at the predictions thread from last year; there was so much optimism based on the playoff run but if you really looked at the team there wasn't a lot of players you could rely on in the roster.

The Red Sox lost their core of young players from 2018 and did not replace them because they did not have any young talent available. If you don't have young stars and cheap players you're going to have to fill out your team with whoever's available and that's really hard. Sometimes you're going to do OK and get Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber, but then those guys might get expensive and sign elsewhere and you're left with JBJ v2 and Bobby Dalbec playing 100 games each.

If Mayer, Casas, Bleis, Rafaela all turn into 4+ WAR players then you can build around that and Devers and everything becomes that much easier. Or if a couple do, and you can still get average performances from other players who are on cheap deals, you're in good shape for contention and all you need is to hit on a couple short-money FAs a la Shane Victorino or swing a deal for a Chris Sale. But if only say, Mayer and Devers are 4+ WAR players in 2027, and they haven't added other guys via trade or FA, we'll be in the same place as we are now where you're hoping you can sign a bunch of guys who have career years. It makes these kinds of threads boring but that is really the only way to build consistently good teams.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The 2018 Red Sox top players by bWAR were Betts, Martinez, Sale, Xander, Benintendi, Price, Porcello, JBJ, E-Rod, Kimbrel. 5 guys they developed, 5 solid acquisitions they used money or prospects to get. That's a great way to build a team out.

No offense, but this kind of take strikes me as myth-infused.

You can make the exact same sort of argument for 2016 and 2017. Both those teams were front loaded with supposedly high-impact players that could win short post-season series. Both were derailed by injuries and both were ignominiously flushed out of post-season play. Nobody was ecstatic for the 2016 and 2017 post-seasons. And so the Sox boosted their salary commitments by roughly $40M to a ML leading $240M for 2018. (Which kept them #1 into 2019.)

2018 was, in a sense, the fluke year - mostly because the starters were healthy, Mookie broke out, and even then we traded for Eovaldi and Pearce halfway through the season. But it was also when all the components "clicked" - right before they promptly unclicked again. 2019 was basically the same club, and the result was just awful.

So by 2022. . .there's this myth that sprang up that by good internal player development and canny acquisition, the Sox had somehow put together the perfect team starting in 2018, which was just ruthlessly dismantled right away because the Sox ownership are poopy-heads who secretly hated St. Mookie of Betts.

In reality, the Sox embraced an escalating GFIN approach whose window was 2016-2017-2018-2019. Those were the possible short "dynasty years" - if one can even call them that with a straight face. That was the window, and it closed at the end of 2019. There was no rational expectation the 2018 club would be intact in 2020 - and certainly not (given the injuries that occurred) that it would be competitive if it did.

I mean look at this. This is the most expensive team in baseball at the beginning of 2018 (without Pierce, Eovaldi). . .and who are pending free agents in 2019: four key pitchers - Eovaldi, Pomeranz, Kelly, Kimbrel. Sale had a 2019 club option, but was a FA to be in 2020 (as was Xander.)

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mawlbZ0Ssv67gAkP-7SHHjvTCG67cI0EN22_2-JFGwE/edit#gid=0

 

[chrisfont9]

More obvious by the day that was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated. Everything but that run has been a disaster. I agree Bloom should get credit there, but it's also a clear outlier.

This is classic defeatism logic that seems to run rampant around the region now. Celtics' threads are just as bad. Why give them credit for winning 57 games when you can shit on them for that time they got bored and lost to the Rockets?

Also baseball isn't like other major sports, you can get "flukey" outcomes in 7-game series much more easily. I'd say of the last 20 years you could argue that the Nats, Royals, Giants (at least once), Cardinals, Phillies, Marlins... there have been a lot of "flukes" or one-off champions. So if you are going to try to undermine the Sox' achievements, at least make some minimal effort to put it in the proper context.

 

[chrisfont9]

Obviously one game is nothing, but can I spend a few minutes imagining Duran playing competent CF, getting on at a decent rate, and stealing like 40 bases?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Obviously one game is nothing, but can I spend a few minutes imagining Duran playing competent CF, getting on at a decent rate, and stealing like 40 bases?

Didn’t watch the game…. Did he actually play competent D out there?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Didn’t watch the game…. Did he actually play competent D out there?

Overall, I guess. Every ball out to him felt like an adventure but he caught most of them. He did kinda get caught in between on a line drive that dropped in the first, then made a poor throw back to the infield as the runner went from first to third.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Didn’t watch the game…. Did he actually play competent D out there?

He had a bad read on a ball that let a runner go first to third in the first; he scored on a sac fly a batter later, so that's a demerit. Otherwise he looked fine though.

ETA: Given that he's one of the guys they need to identify as a future contributor or not, I hope Cora gives Duran the CF job outright while Duvall is out and lets him sink or swim. Putting Tapia out there everyday is a waste all the way around, and while I'd prefer Hernandez back in CF for defense purposes, I'm doubtful that Chang at SS everyday raises the ceiling either. I doubt there's anything more for Duran to learn in the minors at this point.

 

[cantor44]

Yes they were close in 2021, but even at the time it wasn't about winning the World Series in the moment, it was about building toward the future. The team had a ton of stopgaps. It wasn't the start of a run like the 2016 playoffs were.

This is exactly correct, evidenced by the fact that Bloom was not aggressive at the 2021 deadline despite the Red Sox having the best record in the AL just a few days before. Yes, he got a valuable guy in Schwarber, but only because Schwarber was hurt and could be had for a song. Bloom was not willing to give up any real assets to fortify a very good but clearly flawed team - a team with a strong core whose window was closing. To me, his actions seem to indicate the future was his priority and/or he was a timid decision maker.

YES, Bloom did acquire some excellent value signings in the off season (maybe his best work to date), but he didn't hit the gas when he had a chance to win the race.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is exactly correct, evidenced by the fact that Bloom was not aggressive at the 2021 deadline despite the Red Sox having the best record in the AL just a few days before. Yes, he got a valuable guy in Schwarber, but only because Schwarber was hurt and could be had for a song. Bloom was not willing to give up any real assets to fortify a very good but clearly flawed team - a team with a strong core whose window was closing. To me, his actions seem to indicate the future was his priority and/or he was a timid decision maker.

YES, Bloom did acquire some excellent value signings in the off season (maybe his best work to date), but he didn't hit the gas when he had a chance to win the race.

The Story and Yoshida signings suggest they don't think they are too far away from hitting the gas. If the needle is pointing up after this season for Casas, the starting pitching, and maybe even a surprise like Duran, then I would expect next winter to be when the gloves come off in free agency.

 

[Daniel_Son]

17 games into the season and we're dead in the middle of the league. Same record as Houston and Seattle, better than Detroit, Oakland, KC, and ChiSox.

Despite the injuries we've had, the lackluster SP performance, and the defensive question marks, it seems like we're hanging in there okay.

 

[Toe Nash]

No offense, but this kind of take strikes me as myth-infused.

You can make the exact same sort of argument for 2016 and 2017. Both those teams were front loaded with supposedly high-impact players that could win short post-season series. Both were derailed by injuries and both were ignominiously flushed out of post-season play. Nobody was ecstatic for the 2016 and 2017 post-seasons. And so the Sox boosted their salary commitments by roughly $40M to a ML leading $240M for 2018. (Which kept them #1 into 2019.)

2018 was, in a sense, the fluke year - mostly because the starters were healthy, Mookie broke out, and even then we traded for Eovaldi and Pearce halfway through the season. But it was also when all the components "clicked" - right before they promptly unclicked again. 2019 was basically the same club, and the result was just awful.

So by 2022. . .there's this myth that sprang up that by good internal player development and canny acquisition, the Sox had somehow put together the perfect team starting in 2018, which was just ruthlessly dismantled right away because the Sox ownership are poopy-heads who secretly hated St. Mookie of Betts.

In reality, the Sox embraced an escalating GFIN approach whose window was 2016-2017-2018-2019. Those were the possible short "dynasty years" - if one can even call them that with a straight face. That was the window, and it closed at the end of 2019. There was no rational expectation the 2018 club would be intact in 2020 - and certainly not (given the injuries that occurred) that it would be competitive if it did.

I mean look at this. This is the most expensive team in baseball at the beginning of 2018 (without Pierce, Eovaldi). . .and who are pending free agents in 2019: four key pitchers - Eovaldi, Pomeranz, Kelly, Kimbrel. Sale had a 2019 club option, but was a FA to be in 2020 (as was Xander.)

Eh, disagree. My point was largely that they had a core of young 5 WAR-level talent to build around in Betts, Benintendi, Xander, Devers. It wasn't the same level of talent as the 00s but it was a solid group of players to build around with a floor of 80 or so wins (2019) and a ceiling of, well, 2018.

If they had put away the money to re-sign Betts (by letting Sale go or passing on Eovaldi) or if they had traded him for a better return and ate Price's deal, and then if they had dealt Xander earlier for a better return, then you extend that core, they could have easily been better in 2020 if that happened or have a shortish bridge to now. As it turned out Benintendi didn't get much better and we know the rest.

The overall point is obvious but it's just that there is no shortcut to winning if you don't have a core of top talent, preferably pre-FA. And this team doesn't have that nor did 2021.

 

[moondog80]

17 games into the season and we're dead in the middle of the league. Same record as Houston and Seattle, better than Detroit, Oakland, KC, and ChiSox.

Despite the injuries we've had, the lackluster SP performance, and the defensive question marks, it seems like we're hanging in there okay.

Better record than the Padres and Phillies, same record as the Dodgers.

It's early, but 18 games with a .500 record with Casas and Yoshida being terrible and the various injuries is already in the books. There's a world where they tread water for another couple of months and then catch fire in the second half. There's also a world where Casas and Yoshida just suck, Duvall's wrist is an issue all year and Mondesi can't go more than 40 games.

 

[YTF]

This is exactly correct, evidenced by the fact that Bloom was not aggressive at the 2021 deadline despite the Red Sox having the best record in the AL just a few days before. Yes, he got a valuable guy in Schwarber, but only because Schwarber was hurt and could be had for a song. Bloom was not willing to give up any real assets to fortify a very good but clearly flawed team - a team with a strong core whose window was closing. To me, his actions seem to indicate the future was his priority and/or he was a timid decision maker.

YES, Bloom did acquire some excellent value signings in the off season (maybe his best work to date), but he didn't hit the gas when he had a chance to win the race.

What would have been the acceptable cost of hitting the gas with a "clearly flawed team"?

 

[8slim]

Better record than the Padres and Phillies, same record as the Dodgers.

It's early, but 18 games with a .500 record with Casas and Yoshida being terrible and the various injuries is already in the books. There's a world where they tread water for another couple of months and then catch fire in the second half. There's also a world where Casas and Yoshida just suck, Duvall's wrist is an issue all year and Mondesi can't go more than 40 games.

At this point I'll take them scuffling around .500 until late summer and hoping they catch a wave that propels them into the Wild Card. Maybe as Story and Duval return.

I'm not sure the ceiling is much higher than a little over .500. I do think the floor could be low if catastrophes occur. I just want the team to be vaguely competitive through summer.

 

[doctorogres]

Better record than the Padres and Phillies, same record as the Dodgers.

It's early, but 18 games with a .500 record with Casas and Yoshida being terrible and the various injuries is already in the books. There's a world where they tread water for another couple of months and then catch fire in the second half. There's also a world where Casas and Yoshida just suck, Duvall's wrist is an issue all year and Mondesi can't go more than 40 games.

And they've weathered a stretch where their starting pitching couldn't get much worse. Although, now that I'm looking at it, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Houck are all at 105 ERA+, and Crawford is at 106.

 

[sezwho]

At this point I'll take them scuffling around .500 until late summer and hoping they catch a wave that propels them into the Wild Card. Maybe as Story and Duval return.

I'm not sure the ceiling is much higher than a little over .500. I do think the floor could be low if catastrophes occur. I just want the team to be vaguely competitive through summer.

I still think they end up ~500, driven largely by health, but I have come to see a bit higher ceiling than I expected. They may not be wizards in the field, but I don't think they remain butchers either: Kike isn't this bad (please), Casas will improve (please #2), and Raffy and the OF are fine. At the plate I don't think Casas and Yoshida just suck so the runs will come. Finally, and admittedly not the highest likelihood, but there is enough variance in the young pitching plus Sale (I know, but we're talking ceiling) or even Pivetta or Kluber, plus a strong pen for a change, to show up quite well if everything breaks their way...so high 80s ceiling for me.

 

[moondog80]

At this point I'll take them scuffling around .500 until late summer and hoping they catch a wave that propels them into the Wild Card. Maybe as Story and Duval return.

Yeah, this is more or less what I meant -- "catch fire" was a bit strong. If they hang around and then things break their way in the second half, 86 wins is reasonably attainable. All things considered, I'll take 9-9 at this point.

 

[chrisfont9]

I still think they end up ~500, driven largely by health, but I have come to see a bit higher ceiling than I expected. They may not be wizards in the field, but I don't think they remain butchers either: Kike isn't this bad (please), Casas will improve (please #2), and Raffy and the OF are fine. At the plate I don't think Casas and Yoshida just suck so the runs will come. Finally, and admittedly not the highest likelihood, but there is enough variance in the young pitching plus Sale (I know, but we're talking ceiling) or even Pivetta or Kluber, plus a strong pen for a change, to show up quite well if everything breaks their way...so high 80s ceiling for me.

Casas taking that walk last night was so great. Even at his low point he hasn't lost the plot. Yoshida has a long track record of success, so you'd have to think he's just really pressing now.

 

[Fishy1]

Casas taking that walk last night was so great. Even at his low point he hasn't lost the plot. Yoshida has a long track record of success, so you'd have to think he's just really pressing now.

I'm hoping the golden sombrero was rock bottom for him in the young season. He's been chasing bad pitches, something he hasn't historically done, and I think he'll adjust from here on out. His BB% is %10.2 so far this year, which is pretty high, but actually low for him, and his BABIP is a dismal .161 -- the only people at that level on the team are Yoshida at .167 and Chang at .063. Obviously some of that is the quality of the contact and some of that is luck. LD% is at a very good 21%. Compare that to Yoshida, whose LD% on the short season is just 9%. (Don't look at his GB%, it'll give you a heart attack).

Here's Casas's Plate Discipline numbers so far. O-Swing% is up from last year, and Swing% is up about the same amount. Z-Contact% remains good. He's just gotta lay off the stuff out of the zone and he'll be fine.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm hoping the golden sombrero was rock bottom for him in the young season. He's been chasing bad pitches, something he hasn't historically done, and I think he'll adjust from here on out. His BB% is %10.2 so far this year, which is pretty high, but actually low for him, and his BABIP is a dismal .161 -- the only people at that level on the team are Yoshida at .167 and Chang at .063. Obviously some of that is the quality of the contact and some of that is luck. LD% is at a very good 21%. Compare that to Yoshida, whose LD% on the short season is just 9%. (Don't look at his GB%, it'll give you a heart attack).

Here's Casas's Plate Discipline numbers so far. O-Swing% is up from last year, and Swing% is up about the same amount. Z-Contact% remains good. He's just gotta lay off the stuff out of the zone and he'll be fine.
View attachment 63704

Yeah, that has to be fairly common variance for guys adjusting to the show.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, that has to be fairly common variance for guys adjusting to the show.

Definitely. Like a lot of good hitters he seems to "think through the AB" before getting up to hit. He knows guys are going to try to bury sliders and curveballs in on him. Now he's just got to have the wherewithal to lay off them. He will, too.