That's why I said I'd keep Pivetta and Verdugo. But Houck is expendable with Jansen, Martin, Barnes, and Schrieber. And he might have more value to a team with a clear opening in the rotation.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
I think this is spot on. In spite of people using all caps to say the Sox have no one to trade, I think that Houck could be a very valuable trade chip.
Yelich is not the fearsome slugger he looked like in 2018-19, but he may be underestimated as a useful player going forward. He's not a superstar, but he's no albatross either. He'd be a good Fenway fit, hitting a lot of deep fly balls in the air to left, and a potential shift-ban beneficiary, having made the 4th most outs made by a LHH on ground balls and line drives hit >90 mph toward second base.
But his calling card in today's game is the plate discipline. Boston ranked 18th in BB% last year, which is unlike us in the last generation or so. We ranked 19th in contact rate and chase rate. Yelich has an elite 13% walk rate, which is really crucial in today's game of skyrocketing whiffs, spin rates and hitters chasing pitches out of the zone.
If we were to get Yelich — a prospect as far as I can tell is speculative only — it would be another step in the org’s move toward plate discipline and high-BB hitters. If we augmented that with 2 or 3 other players with well above-average walk rates like Turner, Profar, Kepler and Rhys Hoskins, along with Yoshida already in tow, it looks like a guiding philosophy, aka a plan.
Other above-average walk rate and/or good plate discipline guys who might be available by trade include J.D. Davis, Tommy La Stella, Luis Urias, Jorge Soler, Austin Nola, Ha-seong Kim, Anthony Rendon and Yasmani Grandal.
But his calling card in today's game is the plate discipline. Boston ranked 18th in BB% last year, which is unlike us in the last generation or so. We ranked 19th in contact rate and chase rate. Yelich has an elite 13% walk rate, which is really crucial in today's game of skyrocketing whiffs, spin rates and hitters chasing pitches out of the zone.
If we were to get Yelich — a prospect as far as I can tell is speculative only — it would be another step in the org’s move toward plate discipline and high-BB hitters. If we augmented that with 2 or 3 other players with well above-average walk rates like Turner, Profar, Kepler and Rhys Hoskins, along with Yoshida already in tow, it looks like a guiding philosophy, aka a plan.
Other above-average walk rate and/or good plate discipline guys who might be available by trade include J.D. Davis, Tommy La Stella, Luis Urias, Jorge Soler, Austin Nola, Ha-seong Kim, Anthony Rendon and Yasmani Grandal.
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Probably true, and maybe he can get some incremental upgrades, but hard to see how any of these deals are going to move the needle too much.
Would love to be proven wrong.
Facing at minimum two year rebuild and waiting for the lower minors to graduate to Fenway….
Is the biggest trade chit the Red Sox have Devers?
Bring back the biggest potential haul. Removes the risk of Devers walking for nada. Removes the risk of signing him for $350m+ to move off 3B. Potentially accelerates rebuild.
Is the biggest trade chit the Red Sox have Devers?
Bring back the biggest potential haul. Removes the risk of Devers walking for nada. Removes the risk of signing him for $350m+ to move off 3B. Potentially accelerates rebuild.
The biggest trade chip the Sox have is Mayer followed by probably Casas. Their boatload of cost-controlled years make them attractive to more teams. But that's trading a dollar for four quarters as far as the Red Sox are concerned. No reason to do that now.
I think the "trade Devers" folks need to prepare for disappointment, though. Not that they won't trade him (I suspect they won't) but if they did, the "haul" isn't going to be overwhelmingly impressive. If we're not happy with the Betts "haul", why do we expect the Devers "haul" will be that much better?
Joke? There's no David Price anchor involved in a Devers trade. Unless you're suggesting that Bloom is so incompetent that he is unable to garner a haul?
The "Price anchor" in a Devers trade would be that it's for one year of control, which will reduce the "haul." Say a team like the Mets trades for him. They can do so without bothering to make it dependent on an extension, which would conceivably increase the return for the Red Sox ... then offer Devers a significant contract at midseason.
Mookie only had one year too.
Trading Devers now would probably generate more of a return for Mookie (the greatest piece they got back was losing Price) but still less than people will expect.
True, I'd forgotten that ... though the Dodgers did make the deal without demanding an extension before completing it.
I should have been more clear and included “with a goal to compete in 2025 with Mayer” as a potential cornerstone.
The team with Devers probably isn’t competing for a championship over the next two years. Way too many team holes and not much in the upper minors. Trading the potential in the lower minors sets the development plan back and signing premium talent today doesn’t guarantee anything in the next two years.
Devers six months ago at less than $300m was a scary deal. Now add at least 20%, assume he stays healthy and hope he wants to play in Boston.
I am looking at an 8 year Devers contract in windows. First three years he should be great depending on health but the team/system isn’t going to be ready. Second three Devers should be earning the money and the Sox should highly compete. Last 2 could potentially be rough with Devers as DH and tough contract. That’s more than half the contract potentially not moving the Sox forward.
Just an opinion but taking two steps back seems to be the way to go forward. Team this season with a healthy rotation, solid bullpen and good defense is tough to play even with an on and off lineup. See what the kids have, hope some of the seasoned player have excellent starts and move for more pieces.
Why would Devers and his reps accept an eight-year deal. He's younger than guys who have received up to 11 year deals.
Add the next three years to the last window. Lots of additional years and tons of cash for a DH.
Jeez was not locking him up earlier a blunder, thats just Bloom and Co misreading the market. Hard to believe they come to a decision now with the way contracts are being handed out. I wouldnt put it past Bloom though to attach Sale to him, he doesnt seem to have any issue taking mid tier prospects he believes in.
No joke intended and nothing to do with Bloom's competence. While Price was an anchor on the Betts deal, do we really think leaving him out yields the Sox a significantly better group of prospects? One story at the time of the deal had the Padres interested in Betts alone (no Price) but only willing to offer Luis Campusano or Adrian Morejon as the centerpiece prospect, Josh Naylor as the young big league ready piece, and those only came with the "anchor" of the Sox also taking Wil Myers and his contract. Campusano was Baseball America's #79 prospect prior to the 2020 season, Morejon was #89. Instead, the Sox got the Dodgers to take Price too for Downs (#86 on the BA list), Verdugo (arguably a wash with Naylor), and Wong. Just not seeing 50% of Price's contract as that big of an anchor. Maybe it cost them a marginally better prospect than what Downs was touted as.
I think the only thing working in favor of a better haul for Devers is that the Betts trade came about because the Sox were apparently desperate to use the trade to get under the luxury tax. That desperation isn't present now, so that might give the Sox a bit more leverage to squeeze more out in exchange for Devers.
Bottom line is that expecting a Devers trade to bring back difference makers is only going to lead to disappointment. I'd rather set the bar low and be pleasantly surprised.
Thinking outside the box for a second, but if you did 8 years and are still in your 'prime' when it runs out - with inflation and everything, you could potentially jump from an AAV of 25-30 to 35-40.
Even just over last year - Story would have gotten a bigger deal if he was a FA this year I'd bet. So doing a shorter deal now could lead to a crazy amount of money. I realize the risk to reward has to be considered if he got injured or something...
I am wondering what Ha-Seong Kim would cost to acquire.
The lineup would very much lack power, but would have an identity with contact skills throughout the lineup and elite up the middle defense.
The lineup would very much lack power, but would have an identity with contact skills throughout the lineup and elite up the middle defense.
Kike has put up elite metrics in center. 9 Outs above average in ‘21.
He’s very very good in center.
Can't tell if this is a serious question or not. Kiké Hernández was a +14 center fielder by defensive runs saved (a cumulative stat) in 2021 — third-best in MLB — and that's while spending one-third of his season at 2B. He had a freak and arguably life-threatening blood clot last year, which I think we might give him a pass on, but was still +4 in half a season at the position. Reese McGuire is a little harder to quantify, but he graded out as a +3 in framing runs saved over a short season last year and a +3 in fielding runs saved according to Baseball Info Solutions.
Is the current expectation that we will be staying under the CBT tax (as a goal)? Or that we are under it to begin, but would extend towards the trade deadline if a short-term Schwarber type becomes available? Or that we are reserving much room fora Juan Soto type trade to form a core going forward?
And with all of that, how would any possible Devers deal come into play? Presumably his swing into the 30 mil AAV would put us over greatly, so, is the CBT even important this year?
I'm still infuriated by the lack of a coherent CBT strategy last year at the deadline. It seems the CBT is either a driving force for some of the trades, but then negligible as a goal at other points. We're all guessing at the strategy, but given the cash available and the fewer resources to spend it on, is the primary, or at least secondary goal to reset this year?
And with all of that, how would any possible Devers deal come into play? Presumably his swing into the 30 mil AAV would put us over greatly, so, is the CBT even important this year?
I'm still infuriated by the lack of a coherent CBT strategy last year at the deadline. It seems the CBT is either a driving force for some of the trades, but then negligible as a goal at other points. We're all guessing at the strategy, but given the cash available and the fewer resources to spend it on, is the primary, or at least secondary goal to reset this year?
That depends on whether or not there's roughly $50 million in cash involved.
I think it really and truly depends on how the season plays out, as to the first point. It seems pretty clear that FSG gives the Front Office a budget of $Luxury Tax Threshold each season, and if the season seems like it's headed somewhere, they're willing to go above the LTT (ie 2021 with acquiring Schwarber). At a certain level, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the FO went to FSG last year and asked for more money at the deadline and they said "forget it" because of how poorly the team had played against it's division. But that is pure speculation on my part, based on what I would have done if I controlled the overage expenditures.
There is still (even after Turner) PLENTY of room to extend Devers and be safely under the CBT this year. We're at about $207m right now (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/) and that isn't using a Devers salary as "zero" but somewhere around $16.5M (that seems to be about the consensus expectation). So if we were to be able to sign him to something like 11yrs, $310M (yes, I think offering him $10m more than the 2nd largest contract signed this off-season should probably get it done), it would only "add" about another $12m to the AAV totals.
Such an extension would give the Red Sox an AAV salary of approximately $220m, thus leaving around $13m to spread among other needs before hitting up against the tax threshold. It'd also go a heck of a long way to doing something that we haven't done at all this off-season which is addressing the long term core of the Red Sox toward whenever the championship window opens again. I don't think Bloom will sign Devers to that kind of deal and only "wants" him if he'd take something like 8yrs / $200m which is not at all close to market and therefore wildly unrealistic, but I don't believe Bloom will extend for elite talent at the expense of having to go cheap in the 15-25 slots in the roster. I disagree with his mindset - but it seems to be his mindset.
https://theathletic.com/4019710/2022/12/19/mlb-offseason-trades-dodgers/?source=user_shared_article
Rosenthal certainly throws some cold water on the “Red Sox will trade their way to competitiveness”
Simply too many teams wants to compete for the playoffs. No one wants prospects in exchange for MLB production.
Rosenthal certainly throws some cold water on the “Red Sox will trade their way to competitiveness”
Simply too many teams wants to compete for the playoffs. No one wants prospects in exchange for MLB production.
Its also December as the article briefly mentions. The mookie trade happened in February. So. Its kind of weird to proclaim that no big trades are going to happen this offseason
You're probably right about this, but why does it seem like other teams get huge hauls when they trade their star players, but the Sox can never expect to get much in return for theirs?
Like… who are you thinking about?
The Betts return was safely in the top half of recent trades for star players *with one remaining year before FA.* Look at what Arizona got for Goldschmidt. Look at what Baltimore got for Machado.
If you want a haul, you need to deal players with less service time. Soto returned a haul. If we’d traded Devers two years ago, we could have gotten a haul.
It does at least seem like Cashman, over the past 10 years, has really been able to leverage trades to picking up good prospects
This seems really hard to argue. Like really hard. Mookie in his 5 years of Boston never put less than 5 fWAR. He had two seasons of 8+, including his MVP 10+ season. Manny Machado has never had a 8 win season. The season before Machado was traded (2017), he wasnt even good (<2 fWAR in 155 games). Goldschmidt was a clear 4.5-6 win player when he was traded, but again zero 8 fWAR seasons.
There may have been an argument they were superior players, but it would have been really disingenuous. Mookie when traded was a clear top 3 guy in MLB; the others were not.
I think the perception of the quality of the "haul" can change over time. The Goldschmidt deal looked okay for the DBacks at the time: a promising young pitcher, promising young catcher, and a prospect with potential. All they have left now is the catcher, Carson Kelly, and he's been alright over four seasons (352 games, .231/.318/.405/.723, 95 OPS+). The other two players did not pan out at all and are elsewhere now. Four years out and it doesn't look like a great deal for the DBacks.
For Betts, the Sox got a BA top 100 prospect (good at the time) who busted (not so good), a good young outfielder with years of control who has been very solid over three years (351 games, .288/.343/.425/.770, 108 OPS+), and a catching prospect who is expected to be at least the backup catcher this coming season. At this point, a case can be made that the Betts trade has worked better for the Sox than the Goldschmidt deal did for the DBacks. Still not earth-shattering or anything, but like you say, top half of recent trades involving star players.
I think sometimes our perceptions are affected by how close we are to the Sox. Specifically in this case, our disappointment in the return for Betts is heightened by our angst over the fact that the trade happened in the first place. We can't look at it as objectively as we might look at the Goldschmidt or Machado or other deals. As I said before, that's why we should temper expectations about a possible Devers trade. No matter what they might get for him, it's going to feel like it's not enough because it's Devers.
I believe he meant Goldschmidt and Machado were arguably better than Devers when they were traded, so their trade return is in the ballpark of a reasonable trade value of 1 year of Devers.
I’m just generally saying it SEEMS like it. He did a great job with Chapman but as far as how it’s all played out I’m not sure if he really did. Mostly agree that the skew in perception is proximity
Cashman did a great job to get Gleyber for Chapman, and Gleyber hasn't been anywhere near as good as expected. That trade also got the Yankees McKinney, the Cubs' supposedly high-floor #5 prospect at the time, who was a dud.
Crossposting here, but who says no to this?
LAA gets: Sale, Verdugo, Pivetta, Dalbec, Duran
BOS gets: Ward, Detmers, Adell, Suarez* (or Canning/Silseth/Rodriguez), Rendon (with $60-80 million paid down, which would leave roughly 4/$75-95M left on that deal)
Sale and Rendon are the change-of-scenery ex-stars/anchors of the deal, and both teams swap some change-of-scenery prospects (Duran, Dalbec, Adell) too.
Basically, the Angels swap out a chance for a redundant third baseman’s rebound, which wouldn't help them much in 2023, for a chance at a frontline ace’s rebound, which would. The Sox take on more salary and more long-term control in exchange for giving the Angels more 2023 certainty in Pivetta and Verdugo, who they can re-flip next winter in a post-Ohtani rebuild. It also gives them Dalbec as an ideal platoon-mate for Walsh, and it rids them of Adell, who’s in his last option year and is unlikely to get MLB PAs if the Angels are in GFIN mode. Their rotation would be Ohtani/Sale/Sandoval/Pivetta/Anderson/Silseth
Yoshida - LF
Turner - DH/1B/3B
Rendon - 2B/DH
Devers - 3B
Story - SS
Casas - 1B
Ward - RF
Hernández - CF
McGuire - C
Bench: Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, Valdez (Adell in AAA)
Rotation: (Eovaldi), Whitlock, Bello, Paxton, Detmers, Suarez*
The Sox get a better right fielder (Ward) than Verdugo, who also checks off a big need for a RHH bat. As far as third base goes, we could add the potential scenario of Rendon rebounding, Devers walking and Turner opting out, in which case we could conceivably punch in a 34-year-old subsidized Rendon as our third baseman in 2024.
*Sale and Rendon have no-trade clauses, but maybe they’re both ready to move on.
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Boston's 2013 championship team, and the season these guys had one year prior (2012):
C - Saltalamacchia - 25 hr, .222/.288/.454/.742, 97 op+
1b - Napoli - 24 hr, .227/.343/.469/.812, 113 ops+
2b - Pedroia - 15 hr, .290/.347/.449/.797, 114 ops+
3b - Middlebrooks - 15 hr, .288/.325/.509/.835, 121 ops+
SS - Drew - 7 hr, .223/.309/.348/.657, 81 ops+
LF - Gomes - 18 hr, .262/.377/.491/.868, 142 ops+
CF - Ellsbury - 4 hr, .271/.313/.379/.682, 84 ops+
RF - Victorino - 11 hr, .255/.321/.383/.704, 91 ops+
DH - Ortiz - 23 hr, .318/.415/.611/1.026, 173 ops+
SP - Lester - 9-14, 4.82 era, 1.38 whip
SP - Lackey - out all year with injury (but in 2011 he had a 6.41 era)
SP - Dempster - 12-8, 3.38 era, 1.20 whip
SP - Doubront - 11-10, 4.86 era, 1.45 whip
SP - Buchholz - 11-8, 4.56 era, 1.33 whip
Then they added Peavy at the trade deadline, and til that point in 2013, he'd gone 8-4, 4.28 era, 1.14 whip
RP - Koji - 0-0, 1.75 era, 0.64 whip
RP - Workman - not on the MLB roster, in the minors
RP - Tazawa - 1-1, 1.43 era, 0.96 whip
RP - Breslow - 3-0, 2.70 era, 1.17 whip
RP - Miller - 3-2, 3.35 era, 1.19 whip
RP - Bailey - 1-1, 7.04 era, 1.89 whip
RP - Aceves - 4-1, 4.86 era, 1.73 whip
Long story short, as we looked at the roster going into the 2013 season, the lineup appeared to have one monster in Papi, a solid, AS-level player in Peoria, and a bunch of guys who were ok, but nothing to write home about. Four out of the nine lineup spots were coming off seasons where their ops+ was below 100 (thus, below average).
The starting rotation looked very sketchy. Lackey was horrible with Boston and was coming off an injury that cost him his entire 2012 season. Lester looked pretty bad in 2012 and he was the "ace". Dempster was ok. Doubront was pretty bad. Buchholz had talent but had looked like he couldn't really put it together.
The bullpen looked pretty good with Koji, Tarawa, Breslow, and Miller, but there were major weak spots there too.
Plus a new manager in John Farrell, who was coming off a 73-89 season with Toronto.
In other words, there was NO indication that that squad would roll to 97 wins and a World Series championship. But they did.
Red Sox Nation.... don't lose hope.
C - Saltalamacchia - 25 hr, .222/.288/.454/.742, 97 op+
1b - Napoli - 24 hr, .227/.343/.469/.812, 113 ops+
2b - Pedroia - 15 hr, .290/.347/.449/.797, 114 ops+
3b - Middlebrooks - 15 hr, .288/.325/.509/.835, 121 ops+
SS - Drew - 7 hr, .223/.309/.348/.657, 81 ops+
LF - Gomes - 18 hr, .262/.377/.491/.868, 142 ops+
CF - Ellsbury - 4 hr, .271/.313/.379/.682, 84 ops+
RF - Victorino - 11 hr, .255/.321/.383/.704, 91 ops+
DH - Ortiz - 23 hr, .318/.415/.611/1.026, 173 ops+
SP - Lester - 9-14, 4.82 era, 1.38 whip
SP - Lackey - out all year with injury (but in 2011 he had a 6.41 era)
SP - Dempster - 12-8, 3.38 era, 1.20 whip
SP - Doubront - 11-10, 4.86 era, 1.45 whip
SP - Buchholz - 11-8, 4.56 era, 1.33 whip
Then they added Peavy at the trade deadline, and til that point in 2013, he'd gone 8-4, 4.28 era, 1.14 whip
RP - Koji - 0-0, 1.75 era, 0.64 whip
RP - Workman - not on the MLB roster, in the minors
RP - Tazawa - 1-1, 1.43 era, 0.96 whip
RP - Breslow - 3-0, 2.70 era, 1.17 whip
RP - Miller - 3-2, 3.35 era, 1.19 whip
RP - Bailey - 1-1, 7.04 era, 1.89 whip
RP - Aceves - 4-1, 4.86 era, 1.73 whip
Long story short, as we looked at the roster going into the 2013 season, the lineup appeared to have one monster in Papi, a solid, AS-level player in Peoria, and a bunch of guys who were ok, but nothing to write home about. Four out of the nine lineup spots were coming off seasons where their ops+ was below 100 (thus, below average).
The starting rotation looked very sketchy. Lackey was horrible with Boston and was coming off an injury that cost him his entire 2012 season. Lester looked pretty bad in 2012 and he was the "ace". Dempster was ok. Doubront was pretty bad. Buchholz had talent but had looked like he couldn't really put it together.
The bullpen looked pretty good with Koji, Tarawa, Breslow, and Miller, but there were major weak spots there too.
Plus a new manager in John Farrell, who was coming off a 73-89 season with Toronto.
In other words, there was NO indication that that squad would roll to 97 wins and a World Series championship. But they did.
Red Sox Nation.... don't lose hope.
Amen to that. That’s why I think it would be insane to trade Devers and not extend him. He’s the kind of guy that you build a championship roster around (elite production from a premium position, likely hasn’t peaked yet and will benefit significantly from the shift being banned). We really need to keep him at all costs.
We have some great young talent on the ML roster already (Bello/Casas), a bullpen that should be MUCH better, and if we have some luck with the rotation (staying healthy is key) they could have a solid team. I’m not exactly confident about the team but I think it shows promise and I am pretty confident they’ll be much better than last year.
Genuinely curious—do you really mean at all costs? If the number is, for example, 14/$450, no problem?
Not contesting this at all…. I posted something similar about this’13 team a few weeks back not nearly as succinctly though.
But the Sox were also at a very similar place…. Top rated SS prospect in the minors but not much else until you got into the lower levels. X was a year away….
I could argue that the farm system today is in better shape. Casas and Bello are graduating but in 2-3 years there’ll be way more ML quality players than then.
Similarly…. If you look at Lester after ‘12 one could easily guess that he was going to start trending downwards going forward and wasn’t in the Price/Scherzer upper eschelon. Things did NOT look good…. Maybe 2,3 years until contention again. That ‘13 team was assembled similarly to last two years teams with a contend-but-don’t-be-dumb philosophy
Yep. And that philosophy led to not only a (surprising, to say the least) WS title in 2013, but after a couple of down years in 2014 and 2015, a really good run from 2016-2018 as those young players in the system as you described began to shine in the majors.
Right now this team doesn't *look* like a contender. But funnier things have happened, fairly recently even, right here in Boston.