What does 2023 look like?

ehaz

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There's been little mention anywhere of a RH free agent infielder who had an .812 OPS last year with 28 HR:

Brandon Drury:
Last year: .263/.320/.492 in 568 PA, .812 OPS, 122 OPS+, 28 HR, .350 wOBA 123 RC, 3 WAR

Defense:
1B 2022: 30 games, 221 innings, -3.9 UZR/150
2B 2022: 27 games, 190 innings, 7.4 UZR/150
3B 2022: 67 games, 513 innings, -2.0 UZR/150
Career is pretty close to average at all 3 positions.

Against LHP: .299/.329/.626 with a .327 ISO, .344 BABIP, .403 wOBA and a 160 wRC+.
Against RHP: .248/.317/.439.

There's talk about how his numbers were boosted by the Reds home park, but they were also hurt by playing in the Padres home park. Overall, he was still a solid hitter on the road, with half his HRs away from home.
Home, 310 PA: .275/.336/.497 14 HR
Road, 258 PA: .248/.302/.487 14 HR

MLB trade rumors projected 2 years at $9 million a year for him, but he has had to take minor league contracts each of the past 2 seasons.

One question about him is what the heck happened to him when he was with Toronto? He's been a good hitter for his career, except 2018 through 2020, when he was horrible. Injuries maybe?
Otherwise, he seems to check a lot of boxes for the Red Sox.
I actually kind of forgot about Drury and went into the offseason just assuming San Diego would re-sign him. I also thought he was more a 1B/3B guy and would be a bit too expensive as a backup to Casas/Devers, but the metrics suggest he plays at least an average 2B.

I think he'd be a better fit than Segura. You could also slide him to 3B in 2024 if Devers walks, move Rafaela to SS if ready, and Story back to 2B.

Would sort of be like adding another Kike Hernandez, but with more offense and less defense. They're even projected similarly for 2023 production by Fangraphs (1.7 fWAR for Drury, 1.8 fWAR for Hernandez).
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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There's been little mention anywhere of a RH free agent infielder who had an .812 OPS last year with 28 HR:

Brandon Drury:
Last year: .263/.320/.492 in 568 PA, .812 OPS, 122 OPS+, 28 HR, .350 wOBA 123 RC, 3 WAR

Defense:
1B 2022: 30 games, 221 innings, -3.9 UZR/150
2B 2022: 27 games, 190 innings, 7.4 UZR/150
3B 2022: 67 games, 513 innings, -2.0 UZR/150
Career is pretty close to average at all 3 positions.

Against LHP: .299/.329/.626 with a .327 ISO, .344 BABIP, .403 wOBA and a 160 wRC+.
Against RHP: .248/.317/.439.

There's talk about how his numbers were boosted by the Reds home park, but they were also hurt by playing in the Padres home park. Overall, he was still a solid hitter on the road, with half his HRs away from home.
Home, 310 PA: .275/.336/.497 14 HR
Road, 258 PA: .248/.302/.487 14 HR

MLB trade rumors projected 2 years at $9 million a year for him, but he has had to take minor league contracts each of the past 2 seasons.

One question about him is what the heck happened to him when he was with Toronto? He's been a good hitter for his career, except 2018 through 2020, when he was horrible. Injuries maybe?
Otherwise, he seems to check a lot of boxes for the Red Sox.
I think he makes sense. Shouldn't cost them a ton of money or years, hits lefties well and with power. He also pulls the ball quite a bit, so he could take advantage of the monster. Most of his HR's are to LF. I had mentioned him earlier in the offseason as a RHH DH platoon option who has some positional versatility to keep guys fresh and fill in for injuries.
 

JM3

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So as of November 23rd the "as is" ZIPS projection had the Red Sox at 82 wins. That means based on the holdover players who were currently under contract & not assigning any free agents to anyone. So for example the Yankees (85 wins) were without Judge & the Red Sox were without X.

For the AL East they had:

[TH]Team[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]GB[/TH] [TH]Pct[/TH] [TH]Div%[/TH] [TH]WC%[/TH] [TH]Playoff%[/TH] [TH]WS Win%[/TH]
Toronto Blue Jays 88 74 .543 32.5% 36.6% 69.1% 6.6%
Tampa Bay Rays 88 74 .543 32.6% 36.7% 69.3% 6.6%
New York Yankees 85 77 3 .525 20.4% 35.6% 56.0% 4.0%
Boston Red Sox 82 80 6 .506 11.0% 28.5% 39.5% 2.0%
Baltimore Orioles 78 84 10 .481 3.6% 15.4% 19.0% 0.6%


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

Since that time, the Red Sox have signed (with FanGraphs predicted WAR for '23):

Joely (0.2)
CMart (0.5)
Kenley (0.5)
Yoshida (2.8)
Total: 4.0

& by all accounts, the Red Sox have at least another $40m or so they'll spend on something.

The Orioles have acquired:

Franchy (0.1)
Kyle Gibson (1.3)
& a few random Rule 5 guys
Total: 1.4

The Rays have acquired:

Eflin (1.4)
Kevin Kelly (0.1)

& traded away Raley (0.3)
Total: 1.2

The Blue Jays have acquired:

Swanson (0.6)
Kiermaier (1.2)
Bassit (2.3)

But traded away Teoscar (2.3):
Total: 1.8

Finally, the Yankees:

Kahnle (0.3)
Judge (6.8)
Total: 7.1

This is obviously not how the real world works, because it matters what you are replacing, & the off season is far from over, but quick, back of the napkin math...& also every team is going to have gotten stronger so all of these win totals will be relatively high, but it's just for rough comparison purposes not for actual # of wins purposes:

Yankees 85 + 7 = 92
Blue Jays 88 + 2 = 90
Rays 88 + 1 = 89
Red Sox 82 + 4 = 86
Orioles 78 + 1 = 79

So, if you trust Zips at all, there's no real reason to think the Red Sox can't be competitive this season - especially when factoring in the other $40m. Last season's results sucked - but it's not really the baseline for this year's team.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I think Drury had a great year, but he's absolutely one of those guys where I admit to falling in the "why bother" camp.

He was excellent last year, no question about that. However his combined fWAR leading up to last season was .7 for his entire career. Maybe someone thinks he's "finally figured it out" and will be the 3 fWAR player he was last year for the next several years, but he just seems like a guy whom in this market we'd have to pay something like 3yrs, $45m to (FanGraphs pegged him at 3/$30, but they also pegged Turner at 7/$210, so...)and would be lamenting having him suck up $15m a year for a .1 fWAR per year.

If this were a title contending team and we had a stud infielder / left fielder whom just needed some finishing in AAA for season or a half a season, I'd be all over him. On a team that is bereft of a core, I don't get it. I look at a player like that and think "best case" scenario is he repeats last year and we trade him for a nice prospect at the deadline, but that's a heck of a lot of cash to bet on trading him (or on his last year being more representative of what his next three seasons will look like than his prior 6 seasons were).

Maybe others know this and I don't, but is there something specific in his profile that makes one think last year was "the new norm" and not the prior 6 seasons for him? If so I could certainly be convinced, but just looking at his career stats, I don't see it - so I'm genuinely asking.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Maybe I’m missing something with the ZIPS as is projections, but how are all teams in the division adding wins based on who they have acquired thus far? I get that the division is better than others but wins / losses are a zero sum game, so if the division is +15 wins over their baseline projections, does that just mean that the rest of the league has lost -15 wins based on player movement, or are the estimates not that nuanced?
 

Obscure Name

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Maybe I’m missing something with the ZIPS as is projections, but how are all teams in the division adding wins based on who they have acquired thus far? I get that the division is better than others but wins / losses are a zero sum game, so if the division is +15 wins over their baseline projections, does that just mean that the rest of the league has lost -15 wins based on player movement, or are the estimates not that nuanced?
With the caveat I have no idea how ZIPS works, shouldn't every AL East team be projected to add wins thanks to the new balanced schedule?

e: Found my own answer. Looks like less of a difference than I expected, though that analysis is from August.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Other still available RH bats other than Drury that could fit (most of this taken from this thread):
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-sign-some-hitters.37903/
(We also really need another good pitcher, and we will probably make a trade or two, but this is just a look at currently available free agent hitters.)

Justin Turner: .278/.350/.438, 116 OPS+ last year. Could still play third base last year, but will be 38 next year. Might be able to play first base. Basically an upgrade on Dalbec. Marlins and Brewers have reportedly been interested in him.

Wil Myers: Hit .261/.315/.398 this year in 286 PA. Career 111 OPS+, 122 the past 3 years combined. His slugging wasn't good last year, but his splits were-- he crushed lefties, finished strong, and hit well away from San Diego. Plays first base and corner OF.

JD Martinez: thought of as a DH only because he didn't play the field at all last year. But going into the season the Red Sox were anticipating him playing some OF, then he hurt his back. In 2021, he played 36 games in the OF. If he could do that again, that would help a lot when resting players or covering short term injuries. He was horrendous in July and August, then finished the season strong, .889 OPS and 5 HRs in his last 109 PA. Was his back feeling better by then? Dead cat bounce? No one wants him at $20 million per year, but there might be a number that makes sense for him and the Red Sox.

Jurickson Profar: Switch hitter, will be 30 next year. .243/.331/.391 in 658 PA this year, 111 OPS+. Came up at age 19 and didn’t hit his first few years. Since turning 25, he has hit solidly for a utility guy: .241/.326/.403, 101 OPS+. He only played LF this season, despite playing all over the infield and OF in previous years. Does he still have that coveted positional versatility? Given name: Jurickson Barthelomeus Profar. B-R nickname: El Patron. He either is a father figure in the clubhouse or loves tequila. Possibly both? Oh yeah, well the Jurickson Store called, and he’s all out of YOU! MLB Trade Rumors predicted contract: 2 years, $20 million.

AJ Pollock: RHB, will be 35 next year. Hit .245/.292/.389 this year in 489 PA, 91 OPS+. Was good in 2020 and 2021 with the Dodgers (.290/.342/.547 combined in 632 PA) but not this past year, and he is old. He opted out of his $10 million contract for 2023, but by doing so he got a $5 million buyout. Named after a fish but his nickname is Pollo, which means chicken.

Trey Mancini: RHB. Will be 31. Hit well for Baltimore, but not for Houston after the trade. Overall .239/.319/.391 in 587 PA, 101 OPS+. Great to see him come back from cancer so well. Played 39 games in the OF, 39 at 1B this year, so he has more of the coveted positional flexibility than most DH types. Career 113 OPS+. Nickname: Boom-Boom.

LHB don't fit as well, but these guys might hit enough to be worth it:
Michael Conforto: LHB, will be 30 in March. Missed all of this past season, so who knows what to expect or how much he will cost? I guess the team that signed James Paxton should not be ruled out of signing this guy. Hit 88 HRs in the 3 years before the pandemic-shortened season. Career .255/.356/.468, with a 124 OPS+. Platoon split of .873 OPS vs. RHP, .695 vs. LHP. His nickname is Scooter, for some reason, instead of Comfort Toe.
MLB Trade Rumors predicted contract: 1 years, $15 million.

Michael Brantley: LHB, will turn 36 in May. Hit .288/.370/.416 in 277 PA, 125 OPS+. Played 29 games in LF and 35 at DH, then was hurt and had season-ending surgery in his non-throwing arm. Has been a consistently good hitter even after turning 30, with a 122 OPS+ since 2017. He’s kind of a LH JD Martinez. Made $16m this past year, won’t get that this time but will have offers.
 

JM3

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Going to do the rest of the American League in this post cuz YOLO...

Reminder that these are the ZIPS projections from 11/23 "as is":

Central
Guardians 82
Twins 81
White Sox 76
Royals 74
Tigers 70

West
Astros 90
Mariners 84
Angels 84
Rangers 80
A's 74

Guardians:
Josh Bell (2.1)
Zunino (1.9)
Total: 4.0

Twins:
Vaz (1.9)
Total: 1.9

White Sox:
Clevinger (1.3)
Total: 1.3

Royals:
Yabrough (0.7)
Total: 0.7

Tigers:
Boyd (1.4)
Jimenez - out (0.6)
Total: 0.8

Central with adjustments:
Guardians 82 + 4 = 86
Twins 81 + 2 = 83
White Sox 76 + 1 = 77
Royals 74 + 1 = 75
Tigers 70 + 1 = 71

Astros:
Abreu (2.6)
Total: 2.6

Mariners:
KWong (2.5)
Winker - out (1.8)
Toro-Hernandez - out (0.7)
Total: 0.0

Angels:
Estevez (0.3)
Total: 0.3

Rangers:
DeGrom (5.5)
Heaney (2.5)
Total: 8.0

A's:
Chad Smith (0.1)
Jace Peterson (1.4)
Aledmys Diaz (1.6)
Muller (1.3)
Tarnok (0.1)
Riaz (2.0)
Pina (1.7)
Murphy - out (4.0)
Total: 4.2

West with adjustments
Astros 90 + 3 = 93
Rangers 80 + 8 = 88
Mariners 84 + 0 = 84
Angels 84 + 0 = 84
A's 74 + 4 = 78

So here are all the adjusted totals for the AL (reminder that these are no longer actual projected wins because it needs to be renormalized):

Astros 93 - WEST Winner
Yankees 92 - EAST Winner
Blue Jays 90 - 1st WC
Rays 89 - 2nd WC
Rangers 88 - 3rd WC
Red Sox 86
Guardians 86 - CENTRAL Winner
Mariners 84
Angels 84
Twins 83
Orioles 79
A's 78
White Sox 77
Royals 75
Tigers 71

So yeah. There's no reason to think they won't be competitive in '23. Whether they actually make the playoffs or not will depend in large part on health & how they finish out this off season. But I think all the 70 wins doom & gloom is drastically overstated.
 

JM3

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Maybe I’m missing something with the ZIPS as is projections, but how are all teams in the division adding wins based on who they have acquired thus far? I get that the division is better than others but wins / losses are a zero sum game, so if the division is +15 wins over their baseline projections, does that just mean that the rest of the league has lost -15 wins based on player movement, or are the estimates not that nuanced?
The "+15" was my own shorthand to show improvements among the teams. Obviously wins are a zero sum game, so one would have to renormalize all the records & do a whole lot of fancy things, so I just did the quickie 10 minute version.

I would have to do the NL, too, which I don't feel like doing to renormalize the records properly, but here's another quickie shorthand (to pile on top of the 5 other things I've shorthanded to get to this point)...

I added 39 total wins among the 15 teams, so we can deduct 3 wins per team...with the 6 teams that got screwed the worst by the rounding only having 2 removed...

AS OF TODAY JM3 ADJUSTMENTS TO ZIPS AL PROJECTED WIN TOTALS USING PROJECTED fWAR
Astros 90 - WEST Winner
Yankees 90 - EAST Winner
Blue Jays 87 - 1st WC
Rays 87 - 2nd WC
Rangers 85 - 3rd WC
Red Sox 83
Guardians 83 - CENTRAL Winner
Angels 82
Mariners 81
Twins 80
Orioles 77
A's 76
White Sox 75
Royals 72
Tigers 68
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Jurickson Profar: Switch hitter, will be 30 next year. .243/.331/.391 in 658 PA this year, 111 OPS+. Came up at age 19 and didn’t hit his first few years. Since turning 25, he has hit solidly for a utility guy: .241/.326/.403, 101 OPS+. He only played LF this season, despite playing all over the infield and OF in previous years. Does he still have that coveted positional versatility? Given name: Jurickson Barthelomeus Profar. B-R nickname: El Patron. He either is a father figure in the clubhouse or loves tequila. Possibly both? Oh yeah, well the Jurickson Store called, and he’s all out of YOU! MLB Trade Rumors predicted contract: 2 years, $20 million.

LHB don't fit as well, but these guys might hit enough to be worth it:
Michael Conforto: LHB, will be 30 in March. Missed all of this past season, so who knows what to expect or how much he will cost? I guess the team that signed James Paxton should not be ruled out of signing this guy. Hit 88 HRs in the 3 years before the pandemic-shortened season. Career .255/.356/.468, with a 124 OPS+. Platoon split of .873 OPS vs. RHP, .695 vs. LHP. His nickname is Scooter, for some reason, instead of Comfort Toe.
MLB Trade Rumors predicted contract: 1 years, $15 million.
Based on what is left, I like these options. I also would like to bring back Benintendi and then move Verdugo for prospects. Similar ages, but I think Benintendi is a bit better player. So, in essence, you're "buying" prospects for the cost difference between the two players.
 

nvalvo

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I like the Drury idea, especially if we're making some trades.
  1. Trade Verdugo to PHL for Rhys Hoskins, RHH 1B/DH. Comparably valuable players, paid about the same amount, and the trade helps both teams address some roster weirdness.
  2. Trade Houck and 2-3 prospects in the Bonaci/Coffey/Paulino range for one of the Diamonbacks' surplus good, young LHH outfielders: Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas. McCarthy is more of a corner profile, although he's played center in the majors, with a .270/.335/.430ish projection. He's 24, and has just shy of one year of service time, and has already had a good offensive season in the majors. Alek Thomas is more of a CF, is 22, and has a few .300/.400/.500 type seasons in the minors but a sub-.700 OPS in his 400 PA major league career. Thomas is the better prospect ceiling-wise, but maybe also has a lower floor. Arizona does this because they have a ton of outfielders and could use a number 3/4 starter with upside. We do this because we need a real RF.
  3. Sign Brandon Drury RHH 2B/3B/OF to a 2 year, $20m deal.
  4. Sign the best SP you can get with $25m AAV and no QO. So Rodón is out, but maybe a two or three year deal to Wacha or Eovaldi is in the cards.
  5. Trade Hosmer and Dalbec for the best prospects you can get — probably not a ton.
This leaves us with the following roster.

SP: Sale Free Agent Whitlock Bello Pivetta Paxton
RP: Jansen Martin Schreiber Rodriguez Taylor Crawford Winckowski Brasier (or whatever)

LF Yoshida L
SS Story R
3B Devers L
DH Hoskins R
1B Casas L
2B Drury R
RF McCarthy L
C McGuire L
CF Hernández R

Bench: IF Arroyo R, IF/OF/DH Valdez L, C Wong R, OF Refsynder R

The point here is that Drury and Refsnyder both cruuuuuush LHP, and Drury is also perfectly decent against RHP and can play 1B/2B/3B/LF/RF. Valdez similarly plays IF and corner OF and should hit RHP pretty well. So we get some opportunities to PH and mix and match in the bottom half of the lineup.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I like the Drury idea, especially if we're making some trades.
  1. Trade Verdugo to PHL for Rhys Hoskins, RHH 1B/DH. Comparably valuable players, paid about the same amount, and the trade helps both teams address some roster weirdness.
  2. Trade Houck and 2-3 prospects in the Bonaci/Coffey/Paulino range for one of the Diamonbacks' surplus good, young LHH outfielders: Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas. McCarthy is more of a corner profile, although he's played center in the majors, with a .270/.335/.430ish projection. He's 24, and has just shy of one year of service time, and has already had a good offensive season in the majors. Alek Thomas is more of a CF, is 22, and has a few .300/.400/.500 type seasons in the minors but a sub-.700 OPS in his 400 PA major league career. Thomas is the better prospect ceiling-wise, but maybe also has a lower floor. Arizona does this because they have a ton of outfielders and could use a number 3/4 starter with upside. We do this because we need a real RF.
  3. Sign Brandon Drury RHH 2B/3B/OF to a 2 year, $20m deal.
  4. Sign the best SP you can get with $25m AAV and no QO. So Rodón is out, but maybe a two or three year deal to Wacha or Eovaldi is in the cards.
  5. Trade Hosmer and Dalbec for the best prospects you can get — probably not a ton.
This leaves us with the following roster.

SP: Sale Free Agent Whitlock Bello Pivetta Paxton
RP: Jansen Martin Schreiber Rodriguez Taylor Crawford Winckowski Brasier (or whatever)

LF Yoshida L
SS Story R
3B Devers L
DH Hoskins R
1B Casas L
2B Drury R
RF McCarthy L
C McGuire L
CF Hernández R

Bench: IF Arroyo R, IF/OF/DH Valdez L, C Wong R, OF Refsynder R

The point here is that Drury and Refsnyder both cruuuuuush LHP, and Drury is also perfectly decent against RHP and can play 1B/2B/3B/LF/RF. Valdez similarly plays IF and corner OF and should hit RHP pretty well. So we get some opportunities to PH and mix and match in the bottom half of the lineup.
I agree with all of this except trading Houck. We need more good arms, not fewer. Maybe a couple of the lower tier 40-man arms instead -- Winckowski, Seabold? Might have to throw in Walter to sweeten the pot.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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So as of November 23rd the "as is" ZIPS projection had the Red Sox at 82 wins. That means based on the holdover players who were currently under contract & not assigning any free agents to anyone. So for example the Yankees (85 wins) were without Judge & the Red Sox were without X...

Yankees 85 + 7 = 92
Blue Jays 88 + 2 = 90
Rays 88 + 1 = 89
Red Sox 82 + 4 = 86
Orioles 78 + 1 = 79

So, if you trust Zips at all, there's no real reason to think the Red Sox can't be competitive this season - especially when factoring in the other $40m. Last season's results sucked - but it's not really the baseline for this year's team.
I thought this was interesting, and a good thought exercise.

Personally, I prefer the Marcel projections from BBRef a bit more than FanGraphs (which I assume to be ZIPS, based on this article). I admit to not knowing a ton about ZIPS methodology, and I'd be happy to learn more if someone wants to share. My very brief understanding of the main difference between the two are 1) ZIPS looking 4 years and Marcel 3 as their data set and 2) ZIPS seems to use more trends in the game - please forgive (and educate) me if I'm misreading either of those, learning more is a good thing.

However, the reason I like Marcel is that I believe it appears to look more at the individual with a slighter mean reversion (or the fact that Verlander was a horse and came back immediately after TJS to be awesome doesn't mean Sale will too).

I'd be curious as to how those win projections would change if Marcel is closer to correct on our old pitching that really hasn't pitched the past three years.

FanGraphs projects Sale for 151ip of 3.46ERA pitching. It projects Paxton for 117ip of 4.26ERA. I fully admit if we get those lines from those two players, it will help the team immensely and we'll be much closer to the playoffs, I also don't think we're getting that.

I am more in the Marcel camp:

Sale at 67ip with 3.76ERA pitching and Paxton at 60ip, and a 4.20ERA. I'll be honest, I think even THOSE are more than we're getting from Sale and Paxton, but I think they're a lot closer of what to expect. Is someone out there smarter than I able to extrapolate what the Sox record would look like with those two outcomes?
 
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JM3

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I thought this was interesting, and a good thought exercise.

Personally, I prefer the Marcel projections from BBRef a bit more than FanGraphs (which I assume to be ZIPS, based on this article). I admit to not knowing a ton about ZIPS methodology, and I'd be happy to learn more if someone wants to share. My very brief understanding of the main difference between the two are 1) ZIPS looking 4 years and Marcel 3 as their data set and 2) ZIPS seems to use more trends in the game - please forgive (and educate) me if I'm misreading either of those, learning more is a good thing.

However, the reason I like Marcel is that they take the most 3 recent years of data, give a slight bias toward the most recent season, also factors in a player's age and appears to look more at the individual with a slighter mean reversion (or the fact that Verlander was a horse and came back immediately after TJS to be awesome doesn't mean Sale will too).

I'd be curious as to how those win projections would change if Marcel is closer to correct on our old pitching that really hasn't pitched the past three years.

FanGraphs projects Sale for 151ip of 3.46ERA pitching. It projects Paxton for 117ip of 4.26ERA. I fully admit if we get those lines from those two players, it will help the team immensely and we'll be much closer to the playoffs, I also don't think we're getting that.

I am more in the Marcel camp:

Sale at 67ip with 3.76ERA pitching and Paxton at 60ip, and a 4.20ERA. I'll be honest, I think even THOSE are more than we're getting from Sale and Paxton, but I think they're a lot closer of what to expect. Is someone out there smarter than I able to extrapolate what the Sox record would look like with those two outcomes?
Even the Marcel people don't really believe in Marcel & it's now like a 15-year-old model (not that ZIPS has an amazing record either but it's the easiest source of a baseline)...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml

& the Marcel model has a reliability score of 27% on the Sale projection & 8% on Paxton.

But assuming that those projections are accurate but using all the other Fangraphs stuff, you'd have to find another 141 innings & whatever replacement level is available to the Red Sox.

Using the quick & dirty method I was using earlier rather than actually analyzing that, Sale/Paxton have projected fWAR at 3.0 & 1.3 respectively. If you expect them to put up 1.3 between them, you lose 3 wins.

Red Sox seem like they would be really screwed under Marcel at this point in the off season if they had to play games because:

Bello - 128 innings to 83
Pivetta - 187 to 165
Whitlock - 136 to 77
Houck - 117 to 73
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thanks @JM3 - appreciate the leg work.

I guess the reason I still kind of like the Marcel is that what that it's just very basic, looking at the past 3 seasons and player's age, at least to my understanding. I can totally respect and absolutely understand why many don't like that and prefer having more formulae and analysis added into a projection - and I can see why people whom run the projections want to input more statistical analysis - it's smart business too, I just prefer the simple thing in some cases (or the trend is your friend, in other words), and this is especially true for players over age 32 coming off injury.

Though I admit personal bias in there - I tend to think young players will have increased workload and generally tend to improve with experience. I also think old and injured players tend to decline pretty rapidly. Which is why, I can't state this enough -

I'm 1,000% on board with saying "Whitlock, Bello and Houck are starters, we're seeing what they've got" and penciling them in as 3 of your 5 starters. People always ask whom are the most likely pieces of the "core" and I think those 3 (with Casas) are it. Might as well let them take their lumps in a year where you're not likely to be good so that they're (hopefully) ready to be key contributors when you are.
 
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JM3

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I think factoring in underlying data such as expected outcomes, hard hit %s, etc, lead to models that tend to be more accurately predictive, but that can be overdone, too.

Regardless, though, my point is there is a competent team in there somewhere, & I expect them to not suck, especially once they spend the rest of whatever their budget is this year.
 

Apisith

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Whitlock and Houck are going into their age 27 seasons. IMO you have to plan for 150 innings from them each. The only starter where you might want to be cautious with is Bello. I know people will say Sale and Paxton as well but why? Sale's gone in 2 years, does it matter if we push him too hard this year and he breaks down again? It really ain't our problem. Same with Paxton. He's on a one year deal, we don't need to baby him. Give us your best every 5 days starting from the first day of the season, no slowly building it up or skipping starts or any of those things that you would reserve for a young starter or a star on a long-term contract.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I think factoring in underlying data such as expected outcomes, hard hit %s, etc, lead to models that tend to be more accurately predictive, but that can be overdone, too.

Regardless, though, my point is there is a competent team in there somewhere, & I expect them to not suck, especially once they spend the rest of whatever their budget is this year.

This is true (and I think most anyone would agree with you there), and I agree that with a ton of good luck in terms of injury, performance and bad luck for teams we might make the playoffs. But when you have spent $167m on building a team should you need to have the season hinged on "a competent team in the somewhere"?

I say that just because our current spending is at $192.5m, and there is no justification to hold the Sale contract against Bloom, so I'm knocking off $25.6m - but he is the one who decided how to spend that other $167m.
 

JM3

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This is true (and I think most anyone would agree with you there), and I agree that with a ton of good luck in terms of injury, performance and bad luck for teams we might make the playoffs. But when you have spent $167m on building a team should you need to have the season hinged on "a competent team in the somewhere"?

I say that just because our current spending is at $192.5m, and there is no justification to hold the Sale contract against Bloom, so I'm knocking off $25.6m - but he is the one who decided how to spend that other $167m.
Well, kinda. If you don't have any cheap labor available, it doesn't matter how good your additions are on the open market, you're not going to gave a well-budgeted team.

There was a very large fallow period of cheap labor thar Bloom wandered into. It necessitated taking a lot of stabs at potentially undervalued flyers on the market just to fill out the roster, & it led to a lot of sub-replacement level innings & at bats.

Elite prospects are obviously hugely important, but even just being able to graduate competent players plays a large role in depth & success. It allows the budget flexibility to extend in other areas without ending up with a stars & scrubs situation, which may work in basketball, but has proven quite ineffective in baseball (see, e.g., Angels).

There was a 3-year gap where those players just didn't exist. Personally, I prefer a more full-force rebuild, but I understand the Red Sox reluctance to do that in their market, which has led to consternation in all corners, but with only a couple exceptions, I think the individual moves have made a lot of sense & I have a good level of confidence that if they keep going with the plan, we'll start seeing a sustained run of success soon.

Having that baseline of competent cheap talent is such a game changer sustainability-wise & allows for the big ticket expenditures once established.
 

chawson

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Understood, which is why I added Walter. But by BTV that still doesn't get it done.
So maybe switch targets to Kepler. BTV says he could be had straight up for Duran. I'd make that trade every day.
I would too, but the Twins probably wouldn't. They've got three other bat-first, left-handed hitting outfield prospect-projects in Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner.

Maybe they'd do something like Kepler (1/$8.5M or 2/$18.5M) and Maeda (1/$3.1M) for Arroyo and Pivetta? We'd only be able to spare those guys if we signed another 2B/SS and SP in the coming weeks, but I'm thinking we do.

The Twins would save about $3.5M in AAV this year and can plug Arroyo in that infield mix that includes Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Farmer, and Nick Gordon (who can also shift into the outfield).
 

walt in maryland

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I actually kind of forgot about Drury and went into the offseason just assuming San Diego would re-sign him. I also thought he was more a 1B/3B guy and would be a bit too expensive as a backup to Casas/Devers, but the metrics suggest he plays at least an average 2B.

I think he'd be a better fit than Segura. You could also slide him to 3B in 2024 if Devers walks, move Rafaela to SS if ready, and Story back to 2B.

Would sort of be like adding another Kike Hernandez, but with more offense and less defense. They're even projected similarly for 2023 production by Fangraphs (1.7 fWAR for Drury, 1.8 fWAR for Hernandez).
Definitely a nice fit, although a little redundant to Arroyo's game. But Raffy isn't walking in 2024. He'll be extended or traded.
 

JM3

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I did this exercise in another thread last week, but this is basically what last year looks like if they just roll forward with what Bloom inherited...

Let's see what those guys cost this year...

Vaz $7m (1.6 fWAR)
X $20m (6.1 fWAR)
Devers $11.2m (4.9 fWAR)
Benny $8.5m (2.7 fWAR)
JBJ $12m (-0.1 fWAR)
Mookie $30.4m (6.6 fWAR)
JD $22m (1 fWAR)

Plus...
Price $32m (0.1 fWAR)
Sale $25.6m (0.2 fWAR)
Eovaldi $17m (1.0 fWAR)

That's $185.7m for 10 players who earned a total of 24 fWAR...with almost no Major League ready cost controlled talent. Where are you getting the other 16 guys to fill out a roster that gets you to a successful team? Where are you getting the playable depth when injuries happen?

Even if you go to $270m like the Dodgers did this year, that gives you $85m to fill those spots, including almost literally an entire pitching staff. Continuing what the Red Sox were doing and being successful this past season would have been literally impossible.

For reference purposes, the Dodgers put up 63.6 fWAR this past season.
That's not sustainable. Of the people who were already in house when Bloom took over, the Red Sox received the following supplements in 2022:

Dalbec $0.6m (-0.1 fWAR)
Duran $0.3m (-0.4 fWAR)
Casas $0.1m (0.3 fWAR)
Crawford $0.5m (0.5 fWAR)
Brasier $1.4m (0.5 fWAR)
Bello $0.3m (1.3 fWAR)
Barnes $8.1m (0.1 fWAR)
Bazardo $0.1m (-0.2 fWAR)
Darwinzon $0.1m (-0.5 fWAR)

So that's another $11.5m (oops Barnes) for 1.5 fWAR.

& it's not like Bloom had a bunch of guys he inherited go on to great success elsewhere...

Here's a list of the other 2019 players (not 100% sure if all these guys are retired or just not in MLB in 2022):

Chavis $0.7m (-0.6 fWAR)
Moreland - retired
HOLT - retired
Leon $1m (-0.3 fWAR)
Nunez - retired
Travis - retired
Marco Hernandez - retired
Pearce - retired
Gorkys Hernandez - retired
Owings $0.4m (-0.7 fWAR)
Swihart - retired
Lin - retired
Pedroia - retired
Centeno - retired

ERod $14m (0.6 fWAR)
Porcello - retired
Walden - retired
Workman - retired
Velazquez - retired
Brewer - retired
Cashner - retired
Taylor - still around, just didn't play last season
Weber $0.1m (0.0 fWAR)
Johnson - retired
Hembree $0.7m (-0.7 fWAR)
Smith - retired
Lakins $0.3m (-0.3 fWAR)
Shawaryn - retired
Thornburg $0.1m (0.0 fWAR)
Chacin $1.3m (-0.2 fWAR)
Poyner - retired
Kelley $0.7m (-0.5 fWAR)
Wright - retired
Erasmo $0.7m (0.4 fWAR)

So total...$20m (mostly ERod) for -2.3 fWAR.

So simply rolling everything forward from 2019 to 2022, & including the $2m each they paid Pedey & Manny in 2022, leads to a team that's paid $221.2m for 23.2 fWAR.

The cupboard was very bare when Bloom took over. It's a process. Etc.
 
Last edited:

Heating up in the bullpen

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I would too, but the Twins probably wouldn't. They've got three other bat-first, left-handed hitting outfield prospect-projects in Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner.

Maybe they'd do something like Kepler (1/$8.5M or 2/$18.5M) and Maeda (1/$3.1M) for Arroyo and Pivetta? We'd only be able to spare those guys if we signed another 2B/SS and SP in the coming weeks, but I'm thinking we do.

The Twins would save about $3.5M in AAV this year and can plug Arroyo in that infield mix that includes Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Farmer, and Nick Gordon (who can also shift into the outfield).
Yeah, sorry, I didn’t intend to imply Bloom could trade Duran for Kepler. I was looking at it more a cost comparison, that the cost for Kepler would be so low Duran is considered an equal value.
(Aside: I can’t believe Duran’s value is that high, and I can’t imagine anyone wanting to trade for him. Maybe that’s just me.)
Another BTV equal trade for Kepler is Matthew Lugo. I’m not sure I’d do that; maybe a pair of lesser prospects could get it done. I don’t understand your interest in trading our MLB level pitching (first Houck, now Pivetta) and depth (Arroyo).
 

GB5

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Is it fair or reasonable to expect 150 innings out of Whitlock.

He threw 120 innings in 2018. Since then its

2019: 70 ip
2020: 0
2021: 73 ip
2022: 82 ip

He has never been close to 150 and the closest he has come will be 5 years ago. Essentially asking him to more or less double his innings next year.
 

ehaz

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Is it fair or reasonable to expect 150 innings out of Whitlock.

He threw 120 innings in 2018. Since then its

2019: 70 ip
2020: 0
2021: 73 ip
2022: 82 ip

He has never been close to 150 and the closest he has come will be 5 years ago. Essentially asking him to more or less double his innings next year.
I agree. It's far more realistic to expect 150 innings out of Bello since he actually threw 150 last season after about 100 the year before.
 

nvalvo

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So usually the responsible IP jumps are like 45-60 IP/season. So 150 might be a stretch for Whitlock, but 130 is probably about right.
 

FredCDobbs

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I think Drury had a great year, but he's absolutely one of those guys where I admit to falling in the "why bother" camp.
The 2023 Sox are a balding dad getting divorced after 20 years of marriage.

"It's gonna be the Summer of Gene!"

"This apartment complex could be great....These places aren't so bad."

"....and I'm closer to the kids (Need to get Chantal to text me back)."

/ Incredibly loud car drives by at 90 mph "What the hell was that?"

"This grocery store is full of low-lifes."

"Why doesn't anyone come over?"

"I'm sure this is just temporary!"
 

sezwho

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A little clue to how we look in 23? Listening back to the interview Chaim gave Bradford i was struck by his closing comments about this year’s team being ‘much more successful keeping runs off the board.’

The bullpen is much improved on paper, which coincidentally aligns with their risk profile of leaning in on AAV if it’s short years. Defense has some key questions (SS + others) but will hopefully be better.

Not sure where they go on rotation from here, and run creation is clearly a very expensive proposition, so I think they’re investing in pitching and D. Rays are always pitching first, that’s perhaps Blooms direction as well even while last years Sox team produced runs but gave up more.
 

8slim

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A little clue to how we look in 23? Listening back to the interview Chaim gave Bradford i was struck by his closing comments about this year’s team being ‘much more successful keeping runs off the board.’

The bullpen is much improved on paper, which coincidentally aligns with their risk profile of leaning in on AAV if it’s short years. Defense has some key questions (SS + others) but will hopefully be better.

Not sure where they go on rotation from here, and run creation is clearly a very expensive proposition, so I think they’re investing in pitching and D. Rays are always pitching first, that’s perhaps Blooms direction as well even while last years Sox team produced runs but gave up more.
Am I misremembering things or wasn't being ‘much more successful keeping runs off the board' a goal of last offseason as well? I recall thinking that was the plan -- letting Schwarber walk and banking on the D (Kike in CF full time, JBJ in RF, Story at 2B, etc) helping the pitching and collectively making up for the loss of offensive production.

Maybe that was just me?
 

simplicio

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Am I misremembering things or wasn't being ‘much more successful keeping runs off the board' a goal of last offseason as well? I recall thinking that was the plan -- letting Schwarber walk and banking on the D (Kike in CF full time, JBJ in RF, Story at 2B, etc) helping the pitching and collectively making up for the loss of offensive production.

Maybe that was just me?
Bringing in Story to replace 77 games of Marwin Gonzales's 53 OPS+ was an offensive upgrade too. JBJ was certainly a downgrade but the offense probably should have stayed about the same overall. Except half the team got injured and/or just sucked, relative to 2021.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Bringing in Story to replace 77 games of Marwin Gonzales's 53 OPS+ was an offensive upgrade too. JBJ was certainly a downgrade but the offense probably should have stayed about the same overall. Except half the team got injured and/or just sucked, relative to 2021.
Agree on Story. But the injuries / underperformance (where they happened) should NOT have been a surprise Either injuries or below average offensive production have been the norm for the players in question through their careers.


Trevor Story had played full seasons and been an excellent offensive performer every season of his MLB career. Him getting hurt isn't on Bloom, that's pure bad luck. I expect him to play 145 games this year and be a good offensive player (we'll see about defense based on where he plays).

Dalbec had a great two months at the end of 2021 but he's always been very prone to strikeouts and his being a "homeless man's Joey Gallo" isn't exactly out of line from his profile.

Hernandez has had 7 full seasons (or those where he's been asked to be a full time player) and in 5 of those he's been below average offensively, 2021, especially in the post season was a beautiful exception, not his career norm.

JBJ is possibly the second best defensive center fielder I've ever watched play in person but he's a historically bad offensive player, and had been atrocious in 4 of the prior 5 seasons. Betting on him to be good offensively AND to not play CF was just mindboggling as s decision.

Christian Arroyo got injured. Because he's injury prone. He's going to get injured again this year. Even if he somehow bucks that trend of literally his entire career it doesn't mean he should be bet on for 2024.

Franchy Cordero is Franchy Cordero.

For some reason we elected to take on Eric Hosmer and his $5.6M AAV cap hit. I'm still trying to figure out any justification for that.
 

Yo La Tengo

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As this off-season unfolds, I find myself admiring Bloom's ability to stand by his convictions. First, the "overpay" for Yoshida. It was downright Dombrowskian. Then, the furnace blast created by Xander's contract, a one-off move of desperation or ambition by the twice-scorned-Preller that shook the whole market. It would be so easy, and natural, to respond to that by scrambling to make a move in response, or go over the top in trying to attract Correa or Swanson, or at least dump on the contract as a ticking-time-bomb. Instead, Bloom is quietly waiting... and waiting... and waiting. The same approach he took in signing Story last year.

No leaks. So we wait.

Time will tell if that was the right move, but I admire the strength of his convictions.

And I really hope he's right.
I'm thinking that 90% of this board, myself included, would have cut Ort or Brasier or someone else other than Jeter Downs yesterday in order to avoid the bad press and social media reaction that were guaranteed to follow. Again, I don't know if Bloom can steer the 2023 team toward playoff contention, but, there is no doubt he has the courage of his convictions.
 

Max Power

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Dalbec had a great two months at the end of 2021 but he's always been very prone to strikeouts and his being a "homeless man's Joey Gallo" isn't exactly out of line from his profile.



For some reason we elected to take on Eric Hosmer and his $5.6M AAV cap hit. I'm still trying to figure out any justification for that.
I think you answered your own question. It's surprisingly difficult to find someone to play first who isn't terrible. Chaim got one basically for free.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I think you answered your own question. It's surprisingly difficult to find someone to play first who isn't terrible. Chaim got one basically for free.
You'd really rather have the next 3 years of Eric Hosmer at a $5.5M AAV hit and Bobby Dalbec clogging up the roster for the than the next 3 years of Kyle Schwarber at a $20m AAV hit? Maybe you would, but I wouldn't.

Triston Casas + Kyle Schwarber at some combo of 1b and DH for $10m AAV average >>> Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer for $2.75m AAV average.
 

Max Power

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You'd really rather have the next 3 years of Eric Hosmer at a $5.5M AAV hit and Bobby Dalbec clogging up the roster for the than the next 3 years of Kyle Schwarber at a $20m AAV hit? Maybe you would, but I wouldn't.

Triston Casas + Kyle Schwarber at some combo of 1b and DH for $10m average >>> Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer for $2.75m average.
Kyle Schwarber was available at the deadline in 2022?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Kyle Schwarber was available at the deadline in 2022?
Of course not. But he was here at the end of 2021, seemed open to staying, and at worst would have taken 4/$80m to stay here vs 4/$79m to go to Philly.

A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base" and signed him then. Maybe you could even trade Dalbec for something while you're at it.

I'd bet there were plenty of people on this site advocating for exactly that through most of last off-season; if they're smart enough to have seen that, I'd think Bloom should be capable of the same.

*It's also why I would have assuredly signed Bogaerts - yes, even at 10/$250m or whatever it would have cost a week ago. Then IF Mayer is good enough to displace him in 2/3 years, Bogaerts moves along the defensive alignment and if he's not, you're not in the exact position we're in right now.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Hosmer was acquired because he was cheap, and perhaps Bloom thinks he can convert him into better value, but he’s a mediocre player who is a terrible fit on this roster and I will be pretty shocked if he plays another big league game for the Sox.
 

pedro1999mvp

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Of course not. But he was here at the end of 2021, seemed open to staying, and at worst would have taken 4/$80m to stay here vs 4/$79m to go to Philly.

A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base" and signed him then. Maybe you could even trade Dalbec for something while you're at it.

I'd bet there were plenty of people on this site advocating through most of last off-season; if they're smart enough to have seen that, I'd think Bloom should be capable of the same.

*It's also why I would have assuredly signed Bogaerts - yes, even at 10/$250m or whatever it would have cost a week ago. Then IF Mayer is good enough to displace him in 2/3 years, Bogaerts moves along the defensive alignment and if he's not, you're not in the exact position we're in right now.
This is a great point, and although a lot of people on here think we are just showing frustration because of the Bogaerts fiasco, it is so much more than that. Schwarber could have been had for a reasonable contract. How about Springer? His deal wasn't over the top at the time and now seems like a very solid deal. He's a local guy who had a history with Cora. It's not just Bogaerts. It seems like Bloom has no read on the market in any season. AND THAT IS HIS JOB!
 

Max Power

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Of course not. But he was here at the end of 2021, seemed open to staying, and at worst would have taken 4/$80m to stay here vs 4/$79m to go to Philly.

A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base" and signed him then. Maybe you could even trade Dalbec for something while you're at it.

I'd bet there were plenty of people on this site advocating for exactly that through most of last off-season; if they're smart enough to have seen that, I'd think Bloom should be capable of the same.

*It's also why I would have assuredly signed Bogaerts - yes, even at 10/$250m or whatever it would have cost a week ago. Then IF Mayer is good enough to displace him in 2/3 years, Bogaerts moves along the defensive alignment and if he's not, you're not in the exact position we're in right now.
Kyle Schwarber has played a grand total of 22 games at first base in his life. 19 of them were for the Red Sox in 2021 and in most of those Bobby Dalbec came in as a defensive replacement. It's nice that he was willing to give it a shot, but the evidence before, during, and after his time at first suggests he can't do the job there.
 

moondog80

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I'm thinking that 90% of this board, myself included, would have cut Ort or Brasier or someone else other than Jeter Downs yesterday in order to avoid the bad press and social media reaction that were guaranteed to follow. Again, I don't know if Bloom can steer the 2023 team toward playoff contention, but, there is no doubt he has the courage of his convictions.
What are they going to do, keep Jeter Downs forever? If I they think he's not worthy if a spot, he's not worthy of a spot. Who cares if social media is mad for a day in December? I sure hope they don't make moves based on that.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Kyle Schwarber has played a grand total of 22 games at first base in his life. 19 of them were for the Red Sox in 2021 and in most of those Bobby Dalbec came in as a defensive replacement. It's nice that he was willing to give it a shot, but the evidence before, during, and after his time at first suggests he can't do the job there.
Exactly why I said: "A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base."

And, again, this isn't just second guessing. I'm saying I would have done the exact same thing with Bogaerts at close to what he got in SD (though you probably could have gotten away with 10yrs / $250m in Boston). In this hypothetical world, Bogaerts is your SS for the next 2/3 years, then Mayer comes up. Which, hey, dovetails nicely with DH/1b Kyle Schwarber coming off the books, and Xander can move to LF, 1b or DH if necessary.
 

Martin and Woods

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Of course not. But he was here at the end of 2021, seemed open to staying, and at worst would have taken 4/$80m to stay here vs 4/$79m to go to Philly.

A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base" and signed him then. Maybe you could even trade Dalbec for something while you're at it.

I'd bet there were plenty of people on this site advocating for exactly that through most of last off-season; if they're smart enough to have seen that, I'd think Bloom should be capable of the same.

*It's also why I would have assuredly signed Bogaerts - yes, even at 10/$250m or whatever it would have cost a week ago. Then IF Mayer is good enough to displace him in 2/3 years, Bogaerts moves along the defensive alignment and if he's not, you're not in the exact position we're in right now.
Not arguing with you about Schwarber's value, but he was water under the bridge at the deadline last year. If I'm Chaim, and Preller calls and says, "I'm getting Josh Bell and need to move Hosmer, will you take him if I pay all but the league minimum," I say "Yes" before he changes his mind. First base had been a mess all season, and here's a former GGer who can settle things down, even if he doesn't hit like he used to. Then, when Casas is ready, Hosmer at what we're paying him is a valuable asset to trade. Hosmer got injured (of course he did, it was the 2022 Red Sox!) and it didn't work out on the field, but we still have that trade chip.
 

sezwho

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..
A good GM might have said "Hmmm, I can play him at 1b for a year while Casas develops then move him to DH when Martinez is off the books. And if Casas displays an inability to hit LHP for the 3rd season in a row, I'm covered at first base" and signed him then. Maybe you could even trade Dalbec for something while you're at it.
..
Stop reading my mind.

fwiw, I was just as sure this would be the plan as I was that JBJ was the 4th outfielder. I must really suck at 3D chess.
 

pedro1999mvp

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Kyle Schwarber has played a grand total of 22 games at first base in his life. 19 of them were for the Red Sox in 2021 and in most of those Bobby Dalbec came in as a defensive replacement. It's nice that he was willing to give it a shot, but the evidence before, during, and after his time at first suggests he can't do the job there.
You are right, but here's the thing...he wouldn't have had to play 1B everyday for the rest of his career or even everyday last year. He could have played some 1B, some LF, he could have been DH and let JD play some OF. Then after 1 year, JD is off the books. Tampa Bay does this type of thing all the time. Someone will play 2B one day, 3B the next, the OF later that week, so you would think Bloom would have had a vision to make JD and Schwarber coexist for 1 year. Not to mention, plenty of guys have learned 1B later in their careers. Schwarber tried to do it mid year. He probably could have been much better (or at least more comfortable) with a full spring training of working at a new position.