I mean as long as he knows the score, sure, why not? We could do a lot worse for a 5th/6th starter.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Story worries me. Exiting his prime years, chronic elbow problem, has trouble with good fastballs, high K rate, large platoon split…how much better than Arroyo is he at this point? Perhaps he is less injury prone (elbow notwithstanding), and he is faster, but otherwise their skill sets seem to be converging.
Chronic elbow problem? I don't recall him missing a day this year because of his elbow. It was a myriad of other ailments that took him out this season, including a broken hand and an injured heel. Let's not confuse a weaker throwing arm following an elbow injury with a chronic condition. And despite that weakness, Story is still a superior defender at 2B which may be more of a premium moving forward with the shift ban going into place.
2.5 WAR in 94 games for Story, 0.7 WAR in 87 games for Arroyo. I like Arroyo, but he's not the player Story is.
He's more likely the old Rich Hill, which could be useful depending on the makeup of the rest of the staff.
We could do a lot worse than this. Mutual interest in a return should make this easy.
Assuming he’s basically on the team at this point (and assuming health across the board) the rotation would be:
Sale
Pivetta
Hill
Whitlock
Bello
Without any other moves for the rotation, that’s not bad at all (again…. Please note I said assuming good health).
I’d like to just add one of Eovaldi or Wacha and push Hill to long relief until he’s needed.
That weakens the pen without Whitlock there but I suspect it’s going to be easier to find 2 good BP arms via trades or signings.
Houck
Hill
Crawford
Schreiber
Barnes
Is a decent to good pen as is…. Add in two more arms?
I have this weird feeling that Pivetta is gone in a trade. Wouldn't shock me to see one of Houck or Crawford dealt, too. I think bringing back Hill makes sense, as he's durable. Wacha coming back is almost too much to hope for, but maybe they can get a deal done. I think at least one member of the rotation will be a new-for-'23 member of the roster, though that's just my feeling and it could be very wrong.
Rich Hill is durable?
I don’t see the point in bringing him back at his point. He’s old. He’s not going to be better next year than he was this year. He takes up a roster spot.Aim higher.
I don’t see the point in bringing him back at his point. He’s old. He’s not going to be better next year than he was this year. He takes up a roster spot.Aim higher.
I've a feeling that there will be a new starter on the staff for the coming season as well, but I think it's Hill's spot that's up for grabs. Considering that he's not a FA until '25, I see no reason to move Pivetta unless he's part of a deal that lands a better starter in return or a trade that addresses a positional need for the next 3+ years.
And that's the kind of deal I have this weird feeling they'll swing.
Admittedly, that weird feeling could be gas.
Probably not the right word, but he's not one to break in games, which is an appreciable skill. He may not make 30 starts, but he'll give you a chance in most of the ones he makes. Having him in the 5th spot with Bello/Seabold/Winckowski in the emergency glass case if needed. For one year and short money, just seems like an easy decision to make. Every staff needs a veteran journeyman. I think it's one of those unwritten rules. And if doesn't work out, he's the 26th guy on the roster and you replace from within.
The undervalueing of Pivetta amongst some here is stunning. He was the only starter that made every appearance and you can likely guarantee he’ll do the same next year.
He struggled mightily against the ALE but 1- I suspect it’s somewhat random as he was fine against them in ‘21 and playoffs and 2- he’ll see less of them anyhow.
You know how difficult it is to find starters that won’t spend any time on the DL?
He struggled mightily against the ALE but 1- I suspect it’s somewhat random as he was fine against them in ‘21 and playoffs and 2- he’ll see less of them anyhow.
You know how difficult it is to find starters that won’t spend any time on the DL?
Absolutely, from a durability standpoint he's been the guy. 33 starts this past season and 30 in '21. You really couldn't do much better in a guy who ideally slots as a number four or five guy at his '22 salary of $2.65M. He's more than carried his share of the load since being traded to Boston and it's going to be interesting to see how his arbitration goes this off season.
No player, pitcher in particular, is a guarantee to avoid the IL. That said, I agree that some seem to be undervaluing him and his durability. He's no ace, but guys who can fill 160-180 innings are becoming a rarer commodity in baseball. Only 47 pitchers topped 160 innings in 2022, Pivetta the only Red Sox among them. Contrast that to just 10 years ago when there were 92 such pitchers.
He's a Rick Porcello. Solid middle of the road starter who gives you a relatively predictable performance every time out, but is capable of occasional hot runs of ace caliber performance. I don't think you give that up lightly.
Yes he had a really good stretch this past May and June as well as a few other shorter 3-4 games runs in the past two seasons.
I wouldn't call Rich Hill durable, but he's thrown 283 IP the last two years, which is more than Pablo Lopez, Lance Lynn, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell and Jon Gray.
It’s not exciting, but getting 120 IP of slightly better than average pitching for $5-6M is very helpful. It may help even more next year to have lefty arms, a byproduct of the shift.
It’s not exciting, but getting 120 IP of slightly better than average pitching for $5-6M is very helpful. It may help even more next year to have lefty arms, a byproduct of the shift.
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In theory, I agree with you but it seems like a cost conscious move for a team that supposedly has a ton of money to spend. Tying up lots of roster spots with players whose upside is average works when you have a core of studs; I’m not sure how adding / keeping another back of the rotation starter helps when the rotation is filled with guys like him. I’d be open to bringing Hill back but I think it’s a move you make in February. Guess it depends on what other moves are made.
That's not the worst idea in the world. Stay home until late May and keep yourself in reasonable shape. Report to Florida for 3 weeks or so, get 2 starts in Portland, 2 in WOOstah and hit the bigs around the beginning of July. The only problem there is you have no idea if you might need him before then.
It can also be seen as a viable plan to add an arm later in the season when everyone is looking to add an arm without the need to locate the right partner and lose prospects. A rental of sorts with a fresh arm that is likely to cost maybe $3M. And yes, it does depend on what other moves are made.
If the plan is really for him to join the team in July, than they can sign him in June. Otherwise, it’s a total waste of a spot on the 40-man.
They can sign him now, place him on the restricted list, and then activate him when it's time. No 40-man spot taken, no chance of another team scooping him up in the meantime.
Is that legal? Hard to tell based on this.
https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3544
I guess if the team is really desperate to lock in the services of a 43 old down the stretch, sure, but I don’t see the urgency and suspect a better option will emerge by July (if the plan is for him to only play a half season anyways).
You don't even have to sign him now. Just have a wink-wink deal with him and sign him midway through the year.
They sign him, he decides to "retire", they place him on the restricted list since that's what you do with players who retire before the expiration of the contract but without officially filing retirement paperwork, and then he "unretires" in June to make a comeback.
Or maybe they sign him and he doesn't show up for spring training. They put him on the restricted list rather than release him. He shows up in June claiming he "forgot" when spring training starts. They forgive him, activate him, and he makes a dozen starts in the second half.
I'm sure there are plenty of ways to do it "legally". The restricted list is for players that are away from the team for non-baseball reasons (like ERod this summer). The only catch would probably be that I'm not sure the restricted list exists during the off-season, so they probably can't save the roster spot until spring training starts.
True. Doing it during the winter would avoid any concern that another team could swoop in if they need him sooner.
IMO the idea of something like this doesn't need to be seen as cheap or desperate.
Maybe we'll see Rich Hill in John Henry's box and Rich Hill is a Boston Red Sox. Of all the dramatic things...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV3NhT0oXzY
Rich Hill would work much better the opposite way. He's someone who can possibly start the season in the rotation if there are spring training injuries and then move to the pen when you're able to bolster the rest of your staff. His performance isn't anything close to Roger Clemens, so there's no good reason to plan on having him start games for the stretch run.
If Rich Hill is back next year, it should be as one of 6 competing for a spot in the rotation. Sale/Pivetta/Whitlock/Hill and two established major league starters would be a solid rotation with some upside. Keeping Bello and Crawford in AAA provides the always needed depth. If Paxton picks up his $4M option, penciling Hill/Paxton into one rotation spot would be a good combo. If everyone is healthy coming out of spring training then Hill goes to the pen.
Why start Bello in AAA? He’s already expected to hit around 170 innings, could be the best SP already and is only possibly going to plateau in AAA. The best pitcher should be starting every 5th game. Hill starts in the damn bullpen….but let’s face it…. Sale/Wacha/Eovaldi/Paxton will start the season on the IL..
Hill has talked about possibly doing this. He also intends to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball classic so the two ideas may be in conflict.
Yeah, IMO there's no reason not to give Bello a slot in the rotation unless something between now and April suggests otherwise. He's still got some work to do, but it seems that he's already demonstrated some growth in his time with the big team this past season. His being ready to step into the role also frees up money to be used elsewhere.
That could potentially actually work out well. WBC is is in March, take April and May off and then start to ramp up again in June.
Bello needs to be in the rotation. He's proven he is capable and stashing him in AAA is not going to do him or the team any good. The best teams that win year after year have cost controlled talent in their rotation almost every season. I think Whitlock is still better suited for the pen, and adds depth to the relievers (assuming health), but whatever they do with him it needs to be from day 1 and not be jerking him around like last year.
I know we all love our prospects but Bello has thrown 57 innings at a 4.71 era (admittedly with some metrics suggesting he deserved better). He hasn’t ”proven” anything and is far from a guarantee to even outperform Hill next year. I am very excited about Bello’s future and think he stands a real chance to become the first home grown ace since Lester, but he still had outings last year where he would completely lose command for an entire inning. There are things he can improve upon and doing without the pressure of the big leagues is not a bad thing. This would obviously be up to the coaching staff’s assessment, but I would rather he spend extra time in AAA working towards becoming an ace than staying in Boston and just being mediocre.
But really Bello’s performance isn’t the reason I would start him in AAA. Every team needs more than 5 starters to make it through a season, more like 7 or 8. Optionable starter depth with significant upside is incredibly valuable and avoids having to go dumpster diving for your 7/8 starters. Sale and Paxton are big injury risks, as are the other top free agent pitchers to consider adding (DeGrom, Rodon, Eovaldi, Wacha). Whitlock is similarly unproven and Hill is 43. If this team is serious about competing this year, they will need the depth and Bello will likely get significant time in Boston anyway.
But really Bello’s performance isn’t the reason I would start him in AAA. Every team needs more than 5 starters to make it through a season, more like 7 or 8. Optionable starter depth with significant upside is incredibly valuable and avoids having to go dumpster diving for your 7/8 starters. Sale and Paxton are big injury risks, as are the other top free agent pitchers to consider adding (DeGrom, Rodon, Eovaldi, Wacha). Whitlock is similarly unproven and Hill is 43. If this team is serious about competing this year, they will need the depth and Bello will likely get significant time in Boston anyway.
I can squint and understand your point of view in paragraph 2, but the underlying metrics are way too good to just brush them aside in favor of a misleading ERA. Aside from his walk rate, everything else was well above average. FIP of 2.94, ground ball rate of 55% which would put him 4th in the league. HR/9 of .16 which was #3 in all of baseball among every pitcher with 50 innings or more.
I don't think his performance will weigh into holding him back at all. If they do want to keep his innings down they could always start him in the pen in a Whitlock like role piggybacking someone. I'd be shocked if anything other than a horrible spring training keeps him down.
Much of this seems to make an argument for for what you're advocating against. I might also add that you you take a look at Bello's game logs you'll see that 3 of his worst 4 outings were in his first 3 games. He was clearly pressed into action before anyone thought he was ready, but unfortunately he was the best option at the time.
I would argue people don't love prospects. If they come up and don't immediately look like a future hall of famer, people around these parts excoriate the person running the team for not having the foresight to trade that prospect when they still have value.The fact that kind of rhetoric has been mostly tamped down with Bello is interesting.
I'm not brushing anything aside, his performance was very encouraging for all of the reasons you note. My only point in the first paragraph is that it was still 57 innings and he is far from a sure thing. With so many question marks in the rotation (Bello included), depth is critical and starting him in AAA is an easy way to create some.
People love the hope that comes with prospects, not the reality that they often struggle before finding success.
I can guarantee if Bello is given a rotation spot and struggles, which is completely normal for most young players, there will be posters crucifying Bloom for counting on a rookie with no fall back option.
Hell, if he throws three straight no hitters to start the season there will be posters here crucifying Bloom for something about how he was handled.
100% just as they were clamoring for him to arrive in Boston only to follow up with "The kid was rushed". That shit happens all the time.
Responding to you point about so many rostered pitchers and FAs being potential "big injury risks". If that's a concern and there is a slot open you have a young, presumably healthy, pitcher in house (albeit with limited experience) who showed a lot of growth after his first three appearances. Also IMO depth is a matter of having those 6-8 guys that you can turn too to do a reasonably good job and hold things together until the best 5 are established or reestablished, BUT you are not deep without 5 guys in front of them and ATM I see Sale, Pivetta and possibly Whitlock. Paxton isn't guaranteed a slot at this point and if he's not ready there are 2 openings. FWIW we're all putting the cart before the horse as we've no idea how the free agency period is going to shake out nor do we know what off season plans lie ahead for Bello, but hey it's mid October and baseball in Boston has been largely over for a month and a half or longer depending on who you talk to.
While Bello doesn’t have the same injury related uncertainty as the others (knock on wood), he does have performance related uncertainty simply because he doesn’t have the track record to be able to confidently predict anything. It would not be terribly surprising if he struggles next year and needs to go back to AAA for a some more seasoning.
Think about it in terms of probability (the following numbers are arbitrary just for illustration). You need 32-33 starts for each spot in the rotation, but each starter has some probability less than 100% to actual provide this. Pivetta is the closest we have to someone with 100% probability due to a significant track record of both quantity and quality of innings, but even he is at say 90%. That would mean Pivetta is “worth“ 29 starts and you need to have the depth to cover the other 3-4 starts needed for that rotation spot. Do this math across all of your starter depth and it has to add up to 162.
Now someone like Sale might only be worth 50% or 16 starts, yet his status and contract all but guarantees him a spot if healthy. This is where having optionable depth like Bello is critical. But even Bello may only have a 50% probability of delivering 32 major league quality starts. You can quibble with the 50% number for Bello, but imo posters are assigning too high of a number here.
Which brings me to this. I agree that if the off-season pitching plan is to leave the starter depth as Sale/Pivetta/Whitlock/Paxton/Hill then Bello should be in Boston. But as I said in my first post, I expect them to add 2 established starters in addition to those listed.
Are we assuming Paxton is on the roster? If he picks up his option, it’s probably because he’s hurt. Maybe the Sox work a deal out with him but I’m not sure he should be penciled in anywhere at this point.
So what you're saying is the Red Sox should never have a rookie/prospect start the year in the major league rotation. Because you can say this about every single prospect who has ever come up. And if that's the case, when do you bring him into the rotation? What more does he have to show you in the minors that he hasn't done already? Are you completely ignoring his minor league track record here?
At some point, you have to give your young guys the opportunity. He pitched "only" 57 innings last year because he wasn't even part of the 2022 plan, but in being forced into action early, he showed he is a capable MLB pitcher who should improve as he continues to learn to pitch at this level. I'm really not sure what more you'd want from a kid his age being thrown into the fire ahead of schedule.
As to the second bolded point, I don't think anyone is counting on James Paxton. So replace him with a free agent starter. Whitlock could very well end up in the pen, and Rich Hill hasn't been resigned yet. So even if they do sign 2 free agent starters as you predict, there's still the possibility that Bello is the #5 starter.