What does 2023 look like?

[Apisith]

In long term deals, the first 3-4 years are the best ones. With the better deals, those first few years are at $5-7m/win. An extra $50m can get you 8-10 wins. Seager, Semien, Gausman and Marte are examples of free agents that cost around $5-7m/win this year.

So if at $220m we’re simply replacing Bogaerts, extending Devers and replacing Eovaldi and outfielders, we won’t be much better than this year. Better spend extra to stay competitive in the next 2-3 years until our cost controlled prospects come up.

 

[BravesField]

It’s unlikely that we stay under the tax level next year. If we did, we’d probably win 70ish games and Bloom would be gone, deservedly so. Since so much of our premium prospects are in the lower and middle tier of the minors, it makes sense to spend now to augment the major league team. This is how you ride out the next 2-3 years waiting for the prospects to come through. Spend $270m and try to compete. Better than spending $220m and coming last. If you can’t find enough players in free agency to give money to (really not possible, just throw $45m/year at DeGrom for 3 years), then Bloom should be buying prospects like he did with German and Binelas. Maybe this time he’ll pick a better prospect than Binelas, though.

I guess I'm having trouble with your concept which appears to be, spend money and you'll get wins/success. There are examples of this being true, but so are the obverse, some teams don't spend and get wins.

It was my impression that Bloom was brought to Boston by JH to more or less emulate the Tampa Bay model for Boston. "Copy the Tampa Bay model and use the financial assets of Boston to improve the team, where Tampa can/will not." At least that was my understanding.

Tampa is the better team, (and they had more injuries than the Sox this year). Per Cot's, Tampa's 40 man payroll is 116M vs. 240M for Boston.

I'm just not convinced that when all these high price contracts go away after this year, Chaim is going to go out spend, spend, spend.

 

[moondog80]

I guess I'm having trouble with your concept which appears to be, spend money and you'll get wins/success. There are examples of this being true, but so are the obverse, some teams don't spend and get wins.

It was my impression that Bloom was brought to Boston by JH to more or less emulate the Tampa Bay model for Boston. "Copy the Tampa Bay model and use the financial assets of Boston to improve the team, where Tampa can/will not." At least that was my understanding.

Tampa is the better team, (and they had more injuries than the Sox this year). Per Cot's, Tampa's 40 man payroll is 116M vs. 240M for Boston.

I'm just not convinced that when all these high price contracts go away after this year, Chaim is going to go out spend, spend, spend.

Money is only an asset if you use it, right? The Red Sox will spend to the tax just like they have every other year. They might do it in a way that limits long term risk (one and two year deals), but they will spend. They will be no more than 10 mil under the tax threshold, lock it in.

 

[chawson]

It was my impression that Bloom was brought to Boston by JH to more or less emulate the Tampa Bay model for Boston. "Copy the Tampa Bay model and use the financial assets of Boston to improve the team, where Tampa can/will not." At least that was my understanding.

Who are you quoting here?

I’m not sure what you mean by this. You think Bloom is instructed to emulate the Tampa model while bolstered by Boston’s financial assets, but you’re also not convinced that he’s going to spend?

 

[walt in maryland]

I think that the Sox are in for a lot of hard work over this coming offseason. They have 15 roster spots to fill and while they may have a lot of money, you can't buy 15 really great players with the money they have available (not that I expect them to).

I'm trying to be optimistic, but I don't see how the 2023 Red Sox improve themselves next year in one offseason. I fear that they're going to be worse than this year's team.

I honestly don't know whether it's just better to rip the Band-Aid off in one swoop: field a shit team, play as many kids (there's not a ton, TBH this isn't 2015/16), get under the luxury tax and just ride it out until 2025 or whether they should keep throwing good money after bad, keep swan diving into that dumpster and hope to improve. In other words, I think Bloom has dug himself quite a hole here by focusing so much on the minor leagues and I'm not sure whether the solution is to keep digging or just sit on your shovel and hope that help arrives.

I agree with you, but how many teams have 15 really great players?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I agree with you, but how many teams have 15 really great players?

You're right. No teams fill out their roster with 15 really great players and I should've articulated my point a lot better. The Red Sox have a lot of holes, they're going to need to fill a couple of those holes with great players. They have a lot of money to spend, but not enough to get a really great player or two, fill the rest of the holes with good players and the rest of the roster with potentially good players. Like if you get Judge and deGrom (for instance), how much is that really going to help your team when you still need another starting outfielder, DH, middle infielder (depending on where Story lands), first baseman and catcher? Same thing with deGrom. Obviously he's your number one, but who slots in at two and three. Pivetta is a four, can you really count on Chris Sale? We still haven't even moved to the bullpen yet where it's Whitlock and Houck and a bunch of crap. (I know that bullpens are notoriously finicky, so I'm not as worried about that as I am about the lineup and starting staff).

Bloom is in a real pickle here. He's kind of set himself and the team for a punted season next year--there's just way too many holes and he's simply not going to be able fill most of the holes with slam dunks, so I think there's going to be a lot of reclamation projects, guys with injury histories and AAAA arms/bats. However, with the Sox looking at a fifth last place finish since 2012, a fan base that's still pissed off about the Mookie trade and a general distrust of his management style, Bloom has to do something sexy and make a splash, though I am not positive that he wants to do that. I think that he wants to continue with the build up of the Red Sox organization, but if the 23 Sox suck; I don't think that he's going to be able to see that through.

I think that Bloom is pretty good at building a farm system, I am less than bullish on his ability to build a major league roster and I have no confidence that he can do both at the same time.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'm just not convinced that when all these high price contracts go away after this year, Chaim is going to go out spend, spend, spend.

we keep seeing this thought. what are you basing it on?

 

[8slim]

I think that Bloom is pretty good at building a farm system, I am less than bullish on his ability to build a major league roster and I have no confidence that he can do both at the same time.

I want to build on this, and offer a slightly different perspective.

I think Bloom is good at building a farm system that others regard as good. The jury is still out on whether he's good at building a farm system that actually yields MLB-caliber talent that delivers for the major league club.

Needless to say, those are two different things.

Others here are far more into the minors than I am, so please challenge my assertion. But while it's nice that the Sox now have the 11th-ranked farm system, it really doesn't matter unless that farm system produces positive major league results (either via the players in it, or via trading those players).

Obviously, 2022 was not a banner year for Bloom in that regard, as Duran, Downs and Bello were all varying flavors of lousy.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I want to build on this, and offer a slightly different perspective.

I think Bloom is good at building a farm system that others regard as good. The jury is still out on whether he's good at building a farm system that actually yields MLB-caliber talent that delivers for the major league club.

Needless to say, those are two different things.

Others here are far more into the minors than I am, so please challenge my assertion. But while it's nice that the Sox now have the 11th-ranked farm system, it really doesn't matter unless that farm system produces positive major league results (either via the players in it, or via trading those players).

That's actually a really good point, and it's why I said that he's "pretty good" and will hold raising or lowering my grade until his farm starts producing fruit. Because you're right, there are certain sites that love what he's doing and I'm taking their word for it that the prospects Bloom has drafted/traded for are good and will be contributing major leaguers. But there's also a chance that the most could wash out. These sites seem to have an innate bias is that they seem to really love front offices that look at baseball through their lens: prospects, prospects, prospects. And seem to have a dim view on FOs that are more about using prospects as collateral and moving them for big league players.

But as we know, you look through those "Best Farm System of 20xx" and you can go through and find more bust than boom. It's 100% speculative and as a fan, I'm not sure that's the hook I'd want to hang my hat on. As a GM, definitely. You can keep selling the future for years until someone calls for the debt to be paid.

 

[grimshaw]

I want to build on this, and offer a slightly different perspective.

I think Bloom is good at building a farm system that others regard as good. The jury is still out on whether he's good at building a farm system that actually yields MLB-caliber talent that delivers for the major league club.

Needless to say, those are two different things.

Others here are far more into the minors than I am, so please challenge my assertion. But while it's nice that the Sox now have the 11th-ranked farm system, it really doesn't matter unless that farm system produces positive major league results (either via the players in it, or via trading those players).

Obviously, 2022 was not a banner year for Bloom in that regard, as Duran, Downs and Bello were all varying flavors of lousy.

Bloom didn't draft Duran or Bello. His first draft was 2020 and 19 of the top 30 Soxprospects guys(either drafted or traded for) are from 2020 to present.

Downs is a glaring whiff and the we'll see about Wong, but you can't really expect any GM to draft guys who are major league ready in two years before even factoring in COVID. It's not even in the jury's still out territory.

 

[8slim]

That's actually a really good point, and it's why I said that he's "pretty good" and will hold raising or lowering my grade until his farm starts producing fruit. Because you're right, there are certain sites that love what he's doing and I'm taking their word for it that the prospects Bloom has drafted/traded for are good and will be contributing major leaguers. But there's also a chance that the most could wash out. These sites seem to have an innate bias is that they seem to really love front offices that look at baseball through their lens: prospects, prospects, prospects. And seem to have a dim view on FOs that are more about using prospects as collateral and moving them for big league players.

But as we know, you look through those "Best Farm System of 20xx" and you can go through and find more bust than boom. It's 100% speculative and as a fan, I'm not sure that's the hook I'd want to hang my hat on. As a GM, definitely. You can keep selling the future for years until someone calls for the debt to be paid.

Yup, precisely my thought. I don't want to suggest that rebuilding a farm system is "easy". However, if a GM drafts the guys that the Prospect Industrial Complex thinks are good, and a GM trades major league talent for minor leaguers also well regarded, then that GM is going to see the ranking of the farm system rise. But as you've noted in the past, it doesn't mean the major league club is inherently going to improve.

It's probably a bit unfair to draw too many conclusions from this season, but the initial results for Duran, Downs and Bello were not good, to put it mildly.

The idea of "punting" 2023 seems ludicrous to me, but I'll certainly wait to see how the offseason plays out.

 

[8slim]

Bloom didn't draft Duran or Bello. His first draft was 2020 and 19 of the top 30 Soxprospects guys(either drafted or traded for) are from 2020 to present.

Downs is a glaring whiff and the we'll see about Wong, but you can't really expect any GM to draft guys who are major league ready in two years before even factoring in COVID. It's not even in the jury's still out territory.

That's fair, and I'm certainly not expecting that. My point is merely that improving the ranking of the Sox farm system is different than using the farm system to field a better major league club.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Yup, precisely my thought. I don't want to suggest that rebuilding a farm system is "easy". However, if a GM drafts the guys that the Prospect Industrial Complex thinks are good, and a GM trades major league talent for minor leaguers also well regarded, then that GM is going to see the ranking of the farm system rise. But as you've noted in the past, it doesn't mean the major league club is inherently going to improve.

It's probably a bit unfair to draw too many conclusions from this season, but the initial results for Duran, Downs and Bello were not good, to put it mildly.

The idea of "punting" 2023 seems ludicrous to me, but I'll certainly wait to see how the offseason plays out.

I don't think that punting on 2023 is a great idea either, in fact I hate the thought of watching a shittier version of this year's Red Sox; but for whatever reason (maybe he doesn't think that this FA class is worth it, maybe he doesn't think that one or two high-priced players will push the Red Sox over the hump, maybe he doesn't want to spend the money now and wait until next year, maybe he just doesn't dig spending money, IDK) Bloom seems reticent to spend money unless he gets (what he perceives) a good deal (see Trevor Story). If you're going to make a big splash at the table this year, you can't nickel and dime a guy like Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom or any other prime free agent. Can Bloom do that? Maybe. I haven't seen him yet, but maybe he gets pushed to do it, ala Ben Cherington with Sandoval and Ramirez.

I think that Bloom has a plan and he's really sticking to that plan, he wants the Red Sox to have the best minor league system possible and once that starts bearing fruit, mix in free agents. Unfortunately, there are seasons that are in front of:

1. Get a good farm system
2. Something else
3. Profit!

And this is where I think that Bloom is losing the fan base. Prospects are great and it's cool to have Marcelo Mayer and Blaze Jordan on the horizon, but if your big league team is shit; no one is going to care. At the end of the day I think Bloom is so focused on his main objective, I don't think he cares what the fan base thinks. Which is fine to an extent. But the fan base buys tickets. And hats. And soda. And beer (lots of beer). And hot dogs. You start ignoring the fans, they ignore you and now your bosses are asking why is Fenway half full on a beautiful July Friday night. The answer can't be, "Mayer is absolutely raking in Portland!"

 

[Auger34]

Bloom didn't draft Duran or Bello. His first draft was 2020 and 19 of the top 30 Soxprospects guys(either drafted or traded for) are from 2020 to present.

Downs is a glaring whiff and the we'll see about Wong, but you can't really expect any GM to draft guys who are major league ready in two years before even factoring in COVID. It's not even in the jury's still out territory.

I think, right or wrong, that a big part of how Bloom is viewed by the fan base is the Mookie trade. I am not going to re-litigate whether they should have traded him or not but the return, thus far, looks to be pretty bad.
Verdugo is a league average player and it seems like he’s the best piece they got. Downs has been a flop, who knows with Wong.

 

[Auger34]

I don't think that punting on 2023 is a great idea either, in fact I hate the thought of watching a shittier version of this year's Red Sox; but for whatever reason (maybe he doesn't think that this FA class is worth it, maybe he doesn't think that one or two high-priced players will push the Red Sox over the hump, maybe he doesn't want to spend the money now and wait until next year, maybe he just doesn't dig spending money, IDK) Bloom seems reticent to spend money unless he gets (what he perceives) a good deal (see Trevor Story). If you're going to make a big splash at the table this year, you can't nickel and dime a guy like Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom or any other prime free agent. Can Bloom do that? Maybe. I haven't seen him yet, but maybe he gets pushed to do it, ala Ben Cherington with Sandoval and Ramirez.

I think that Bloom has a plan and he's really sticking to that plan, he wants the Red Sox to have the best minor league system possible and once that starts bearing fruit, mix in free agents. Unfortunately, there are seasons that are in front of:

1. Get a good farm system
2. Something else
3. Profit!

And this is where I think that Bloom is losing the fan base. Prospects are great and it's cool to have Marcelo Mayer and Blaze Jordan on the horizon, but if your big league team is shit; no one is going to care. At the end of the day I think Bloom is so focused on his main objective, I don't think he cares what the fan base thinks. Which is fine to an extent. But the fan base buys tickets. And hats. And soda. And beer (lots of beer). And hot dogs. You start ignoring the fans, they ignore you and now your bosses are asking why is Fenway half full on a beautiful July Friday night. The answer can't be, "Mayer is absolutely raking in Portland!"

This is a great post. Completely agree with everything here. I would also add that you tend to get less rope from the fan base if there’s not a clear plan as to what you’re doing at the big league level.
And this years trade deadline was absolutely all over the place.

 

[scottyno]

We still haven't even moved to the bullpen yet where it's Whitlock and Houck and a bunch of crap. (I know that bullpens are notoriously finicky, so I'm not as worried about that as I am about the lineup and starting staff).

Also Schreiber, Barnes, and (hopefully) Taylor. The bullpen is actually positioned to be in a really good spot going forward if they keep both Whitlock and Houck in the pen without making multiple significant additions.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If the perception of the Sox farm is that it's generally good then that should help for trades whether those prospects dealt away ever amount to anything or not.

One question I had- back before Sale was on the team, the Sox had that super highly regarded 3B prospect (forgot his name) who was more highly regarded than Devers and the Sox turned him and a pitcher (sorry, name also escapes me and I'm rushing around today) into Chris Sale (mixed reviews) but I don't think they could have done that if they were offering Devers in his stead. I'm starting to wonder if the Sox have enough of a prospect in Romero or Lugo to start to listen to offers for Mayer who would definitely bring in a mighty bigger haul than Romero or Lugo. Asking basically is Lugo/Romero+ traded player > Mayer + return for Lugo/Romero..... I suspect it will be and that one of Lugo/Romero will be at least above average at SS

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Also Schreiber, Barnes, and (hopefully) Taylor. The bullpen is actually positioned to be in a really good spot going forward if they keep both Whitlock and Houck in the pen without making multiple significant additions.

Sure- if they get a healthy Whitlock and Houck, Schreiber plays like he did this year, and Barnes like he did two years ago, the pen could be ok. That’s a lot of ifs, and of course, if Whitlock and Houck are in the pen, the rotation is Sale, Pivetta….and?

If the idea with the pen is to run it back, I’m a little concerned.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Also Schreiber, Barnes, and (hopefully) Taylor. The bullpen is actually positioned to be in a really good spot going forward if they keep both Whitlock and Houck in the pen without making multiple significant additions.

Whitlock really needs to be in the rotation IMO. He's got the stuff to be there while I think Houck looks more like Papelbon. But I think they should start giving Whitlock some 2,3 inning "openers" right now. He's got the pitch mix to be at least very good "no. 2" type of starter.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

If the perception of the Sox farm is that it's generally good then that should help for trades whether those prospects dealt away ever amount to anything or not.

One question I had- back before Sale was on the team, the Sox had that super highly regarded 3B prospect (forgot his name) who was more highly regarded than Devers and the Sox turned him and a pitcher (sorry, name also escapes me and I'm rushing around today) into Chris Sale (mixed reviews) but I don't think they could have done that if they were offering Devers in his stead. I'm starting to wonder if the Sox have enough of a prospect in Romero or Lugo to start to listen to offers for Mayer who would definitely bring in a mighty bigger haul than Romero or Lugo. Asking basically is Lugo/Romero+ traded player > Mayer + return for Lugo/Romero..... I suspect it will be and that one of Lugo/Romero will be at least above average at SS

Are you talking about Moncada and Koepech? From what Dombrowski has repeatedly said, the White Sox were intitially asking for Moncada, Kopech AND Devers, and DD told them to take a walk on Devers. He was Rick Astleying them, ie never gonna give, never gonna give, never gonna give Devers up.

This may not be 100% true and it's a story from DD's perspective, so take that for what it's worth. But I will say for all the shit that DD gets about destroying the farm system, he had an excellent eye on who to keep and who to give away. I mean he could have traded Betts, Benintendi, JBJ, Devers, etc. multiple times but he held on to them. That's worth something, I reckon.

 

[Sin Duda]

If the perception of the Sox farm is that it's generally good then that should help for trades whether those prospects dealt away ever amount to anything or not.

One question I had- back before Sale was on the team, the Sox had that super highly regarded 3B prospect (forgot his name) who was more highly regarded than Devers and the Sox turned him and a pitcher (sorry, name also escapes me and I'm rushing around today) into Chris Sale (mixed reviews) but I don't think they could have done that if they were offering Devers in his stead. I'm starting to wonder if the Sox have enough of a prospect in Romero or Lugo to start to listen to offers for Mayer who would definitely bring in a mighty bigger haul than Romero or Lugo. Asking basically is Lugo/Romero+ traded player > Mayer + return for Lugo/Romero..... I suspect it will be and that one of Lugo/Romero will be at least above average at SS

Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Moncada was the #1 prospect in MLB (2 yeas running I think) but the Sox, correctly, bet on Devers. A little article from this winter looking back at that trade: This Trade in History: Chris Sale to the Red Sox » Baseball Trade Values

 

[Archer1979]

I'm wondering just how good the coaching is in the Sox farm system? For all the rave reviews we've heard, Dalbec and Durran haven't exactly reminded us of Rice and Lynn. Cordero, Downs, etc., they, especially Durran, didn't seem prepared for the ML level. I don't have any insight into how good the organizational structure is so I'm legit asking, is part of this on the minor league coaching/instructors?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think it’s a fair question. Binelas, Enmanuel Valdez, and Freddy Valdez all seem to qualify as well, guys that the Sox have acquired and then seen their profile and production drop. Might be a small sample fluke but the players they’ve acquired as minor leaguers don’t seem to have developed as they would have hoped and it’s fair to ask why.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Moncada was the #1 prospect in MLB (2 yeas running I think) but the Sox, correctly, bet on Devers. A little article from this winter looking back at that trade: This Trade in History: Chris Sale to the Red Sox » Baseball Trade Values

Moncada is having a brutal year but for their careers, Moncada is at 13.1 WAR, Devers 14.5. Devers has played in 43 more games and has 213 more PA. They've been pretty equal value, but Devers DWAR is -2.3 and Moncada's is 1.7. Moncada is 1.5 years older.

Moncada signed a 5/$70 mil year deal back in 2020 with a $25 mil team option in 2025. Too bad the Sox didn't try something like that with Devers. The Pale hose bought out 4 arb years and 2 years of FA (with the 2nd being a team option). It would be nice to have Devers locked up in 24 and 25 for a total of $49 million. Moncada also won't be a FA again until after the 2025 season, where he will be 30.

If I knew Moncada would bounce back, I think I'd prefer him at 3/66 over Devers at 11/320. I'd prefer neither of those options at the moment. What is up with Moncada this year, anyway? He has a career BAbip of .345, but this year it's .255. That's some of it. His career LD% is 28.0%, this year it's 19.3%. His career FB% is 23.9%, this year 30.4%. So some of it's bad luck, some of it is weaker contact. Career exit velocity 90.1, this year 88.0. I guess he's been fighting injuries all year too.

On a side note: Kopech is having a decent year, but some of it screams luck (.228 BAbip). His K numbers are down drastically. He had 103K in 69.1 IP last year, he has 98k in 110.2 IP this year. 36.1% K%/8.4% BB% last year, 21.4% K%/12.0% BB% this year.


Also regarding Devers recent slump: 26 g, 116 PA, .162/.224/.267, .183 BAbip. 8bb/23k. His career BAbip is .317. His BAbip this year is now .313. Prior to the slump, it was .354. His 2022 is looking an awful lot like his 2021. I fail to see how he's worth $300m+ if he's a 130-140 OPS+ type of bat with meh defense. How's he any different than Xander?

At the end of August 1st, he was slashing .326/.380/.612. He's now at .288/.344/.533. I think it's just regression to the mean. If it's because of the Vaz trade, I don't want to pay someone $300 mil who is lacking in fortitude.

I never really understood some of the boards eagerness to hand over $300 million to a meh defender at 3b who isn't an elite bat. Or at the very least, hasn't put together an elite season.

 

[lexrageorge]

Are you talking about Moncada and Koepech? From what Dombrowski has repeatedly said, the White Sox were intitially asking for Moncada, Kopech AND Devers, and DD told them to take a walk on Devers. He was Rick Astleying them, ie never gonna give, never gonna give, never gonna give Devers up.

This may not be 100% true and it's a story from DD's perspective, so take that for what it's worth. But I will say for all the shit that DD gets about destroying the farm system, he had an excellent eye on who to keep and who to give away. I mean he could have traded Betts, Benintendi, JBJ, Devers, etc. multiple times but he held on to them. That's worth something, I reckon.

Betts was in his first full season in the bigs when Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and JBJ was in his 3rd season. They were no longer "prospects" so much as they were young major leaguers, and it was clear that both belonged in the majors by that time. Now, I'm sure he had opportunities to trade either one of them, but such a trade would not be the classic minor league lottery ticks for veteran trades.

Benintendi and Devers were both playing for Greenville at the time, so no quibble on your point when it comes to those two.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'm wondering just how good the coaching is in the Sox farm system? For all the rave reviews we've heard, Dalbec and Durran haven't exactly reminded us of Rice and Lynn. Cordero, Downs, etc., they, especially Durran, didn't seem prepared for the ML level. I don't have any insight into how good the organizational structure is so I'm legit asking, is part of this on the minor league coaching/instructors?

None of the guys you mentioned were all that highly regarded. Dalbec and Duran aren't Betts and Devers. If/when Casas and Mayer fail, then we can ask the question. Most prospects fail. Baseball is hard.

I think it’s a fair question. Binelas, Enmanuel Valdez, and Freddy Valdez all seem to qualify as well, guys that the Sox have acquired and then seen their profile and production drop. Might be a small sample fluke but the players they’ve acquired as minor leaguers don’t seem to have developed as they would have hoped and it’s fair to ask why.

And how much value did they ever have to begin with? Freddy Valdez was a 17 year old kid when acquired. The definition of a lottery ticket. Enmanuel Valdez doesn't have a position and was ranked 15-20th in the system. Binelas had an interesting debut in 2021 as a college player in A ball. It's not like these players were top prospects. The hope is if you acquire enough of them, hopefully 1 or 2 will work out. We looked at F graded prospects not too long ago and quite a few of them actually become productive major league players. Vast majority of them fail.

Top 20 prospects are a lot different than top 100 prospects and top 100 prospects are different than other prospects. People are talking about prospects listed in the mid teens and lower organizationally as if they should be counted on for anything or that if they wash out and suck, it's some huge indictment on the Sox.

Also, do the Sox get credit for Lugo and Rafaela greatly improving their profile and having their production rise?

Judging the farm is always fun, especially when it's fringe prospects who will be lucky to get a cup of coffee. You get people who blame the Red Sox for failing to develop Blake Swihart, yet during that same period they developed Xander, Betts, Devers, Benny. Did they fail Blake or did Blake fail Blake? If Casas hits .300/.385/.540 in the majors next year and Mayer hits .184/.243/.312 in Greenville... what does that say about the coaching and instructors?

Only 10% of minor league baseball players will see anytime in the Majors.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Also regarding Devers recent slump: 26 g, 116 PA, .162/.224/.267, .183 BAbip. 8bb/23k. His career BAbip is .317. His BAbip this year is now .313. Prior to the slump, it was .354. His 2022 is looking an awful lot like his 2021. I fail to see how he's worth $300m+ if he's a 130-140 OPS+ type of bat with meh defense. How's he any different than Xander?

At the end of August 1st, he was slashing .326/.380/.612. He's now at .288/.344/.533. I think it's just regression to the mean. If it's because of the Vaz trade, I don't want to pay someone $300 mil who is lacking in fortitude.

Isn't it more likely that he has not really recovered from the injury that put him on the DL than regression to the mean or bad luck or lack of fortitude?

As for how is he any different than Xander, he's four years younger. That means a lot, especially when talking about future salary.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Isn't it more likely that he has not really recovered from the injury that put him on the DL than regression to the mean or bad luck or lack of fortitude?

As for how is he any different than Xander, he's four years younger. That means a lot, especially when talking about future salary.

Sorry, I meant when Xander signed his 1st contract.

 

[Archer1979]

None of the guys you mentioned were all that highly regarded. Dalbec and Duran aren't Betts and Devers. If/when Casas and Mayer fail, then we can ask the question. Most prospects fail. Baseball is hard.

Casas is an interesting case. Why isn't he in the majors? The latest word is that he's not ready yet. Why not? Did well on the big stage at the Olympics last year. Minor league offensive player of the year in 2019 (grabbing these from his wiki page). Seems like the Sox farm system have a gem here that's taking a long time to shine. Meanwhile, the Rays roll these guys out like they're on a conveyor belt.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Casas is an interesting case. Why isn't he in the majors? The latest word is that he's not ready yet. Why not? Did well on the big stage at the Olympics last year. Minor league offensive player of the year in 2019 (grabbing these from his wiki page). Seems like the Sox farm system have a gem here that's taking a long time to shine. Meanwhile, the Rays roll these guys out like they're on a conveyor belt.

He should be in the majors. He's hitting .282/.392/.506 in 329 PA. 14.9% BB%, 21.0% K%.
Since returning from injury: .313/.422/.549 in 173 PA. 15.0% BB%, 19.7% K%.

Vs R: .302/.402/.585 in 246 PA. 14.2% BB%, 16.7% K%, .283 ISO.
Vs L: .221/.361/.265 in 83 PA. 16.9% BB%, 33.7% K%, .044 ISO.

I get it, he's brutal vs lefties. Strikes out twice as often, hits for absolutely no power. But if they want him to get another 100 PA vs L, that's another full season in AAA. Having no baseball in 2020 and him skipping over A+ has hurt him in that regard. He probably has faced lefties less than 400 times in his entire career. It's less than 300 in his professional career.

At the same time, he is 22 years old and has an OPS of close to 1.000 in AAA vs R. He's doing this while striking out only 16.7% of the time. He may get 15 PA vs L in the month of September if he stays in AAA. Just let him do it in the majors. Not like the team is going anywhere.

He should be the 1b for the Boston Red Sox right now. It's stupid that he is not.


edit: Casas would be the 2nd youngest player on the Rays. Hopefully the Sox will be producing players like the Rays come 2024 or 2025 but it takes awhile. Casas has been in the works since 2018. He's still just 22. HS players and international players take 4-6 years. This current Sox team doesn't really take college hitters, or if they do, it's at underslot. Chase Meidroth could be a fast riser. Like, 2023 if things went extremely well. Niko Kavadas, Nathan Hickey too. 2024 is far more likely, assuming they make it at all.

 

[mikcou]

Sorry, I meant when Xander signed his 1st contract.

Xander wasnt a clear 140 OPS+ bat when he signed his current deal (April 2019). He had been in the 130s once (2018) and every other year he was basically a league average bat (OPS_ between 90 and 110). That seems like a meaningfully different risk profile. He has obviously been a consistent 120s and 130s guy since, but that was definitely not a clear outcome at the time. For what its worth, that's exactly why the opt out likely agreed to.

Coming back to Devers, the going rate for consistent 130-140s OPS+ bats is what it is - there really arent that many of them and even fewer once you exclude the positionless ones. As I mentioned in the 2022 thread, Riley just got $210M without even being in his arb years, if the Sox dont want to pay $300M to Devers after not paying Betts or Xander, it seems liek a significant indication that they just dont want to play at the top of the market. That seems completely inconceivable for a large market team. Sometimes you need to pay going rate and deal with the risks because the risks of not doing so are you cant build a championship window without both a consistent production of minor league talent AND producing that talent all within a short time frame such that they overlap in their first 6-7 years in the league.

 

[dynomite]

Casas is an interesting case. Why isn't he in the majors? The latest word is that he's not ready yet. Why not? Did well on the big stage at the Olympics last year. Minor league offensive player of the year in 2019 (grabbing these from his wiki page). Seems like the Sox farm system have a gem here that's taking a long time to shine. Meanwhile, the Rays roll these guys out like they're on a conveyor belt.

This isn't about 2023 or the Red Sox, exactly, so maybe it should go elsewhere, but when the Sox were playing Tampa recently I got to considering how many things have gone wrong for the 2022 Rays:

- Their #1 SP (Tyler Glasnow) has missed the entire season
- Their #1 prospect/young superstar (Wander Franco) has only played 58 games due to injury and put up a 104 OPS+
- One of their best hitters and fielders (Brandon Lowe, 39 HR last year) has only played 61 games due to injury
- Their All Star Catcher (Mike Zunino, 33 HR last year) was lost for the season
- Their new, new, NEW young budding ace (Shane Baz) has only pitched 27 IP this season due to injury

I'm sure there's more I -- or @VORP Speed could mention. But put that way, their woes seem at least in the same ballpark (pun definitely intended) as the Red Sox'.

And yet here they are, 72-57, on pace to win 90 games and make the playoffs yet again.

A question I have is: how? If the goal is to replicate the Rays model and "compete every single year," how do the Red Sox get to a place where they can still have a successful season even when things don't go to plan?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Xander wasnt a clear 140 OPS+ bat when he signed his current deal (April 2019). He had been in the 130s once (2018) and every other year he was basically a league average bat (OPS_ between 90 and 110). That seems like a meaningfully different risk profile. He has obviously been a consistent 120s and 130s guy since, but that was definitely not a clear outcome at the time. For what its worth, that's exactly why the opt out likely agreed to.

Coming back to Devers, the going rate for consistent 130-140s OPS+ bats is what it is - there really arent that many of them and even fewer once you exclude the positionless ones. As I mentioned in the 2022 thread, Riley just got $210M without even being in his arb years, if the Sox dont want to pay $300M to Devers after not paying Betts or Xander, it seems liek a significant indication that they just dont want to play at the top of the market. That seems completely inconceivable for a large market team. Sometimes you need to pay going rate and deal with the risks because the risks of not doing so are you cant build a championship window without both a consistent production of minor league talent AND producing that talent all within a short time frame such that they overlap in their first 6-7 years in the league.

Yeah but Xander also plays SS while Devers plays 3b. Devers will be in the exact same spot as Xander next year re: age and contract. Xander had 16.4 career WAR, Devers is currently at 14.5.

There are currently 34 players with an OPS+ of 130 or higher. If you go to 123 (Devers career mark), it's 50.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-standard-batting.shtml scroll down and sort by OPS+.

 

[Gold Dust Twin 19]

I'm wondering just how good the coaching is in the Sox farm system? For all the rave reviews we've heard, Dalbec and Durran haven't exactly reminded us of Rice and Lynn. Cordero, Downs, etc., they, especially Durran, didn't seem prepared for the ML level. I don't have any insight into how good the organizational structure is so I'm legit asking, is part of this on the minor league coaching/instructors?

Rice and Lynn!! Oh my, that is a very high bar you have set. You will be consistently disappointed if that is your expectations. But I did enjoy their rookie years and like the way you think.

 

[moondog80]

This isn't perfect, but here's a crack at what seems possible for next year. Some of the numbers are my WAG but I think they are probably all kind of close. I'd feel like this team could contend.

1B	Casas, Triston	$700,000
1B	Hosmer, Eric	$250,000
2M	Story, Trevor	$20,000,000
MI	Arroyo, Christian	$2,500,000
SS	Big Time SS (6 years)	$25,000,000
3B	Devers, Rafael (8 years)	$28,000,000
OF	Verdugo, Alex	$5,000,000
OF	Cordero, Franchy	$2,000,000
OF	Hernandez, Kike (1 year)	$8,000,000
OF	Nimmo, Brandon (5 years)	$18,000,000
C	McGuire, Reese	$1,500,000
C	Wong, Connor	$700,000
DH	Dalbec, Bobby	$714,000
DH/OF	Pham, Tommy (1 year)	$4,000,000
SP	Sale, Chris	$24,172,484
SP	Pivetta, Nick	$4,000,000
SO	Bello, Brayan	$700,000
SO	Rodon, Carlos (5 years)	$25,000,000
SP	Eovaldi, Nate (2 years)	$15,000,000
SP	Wacha, Michael (3 years)	$11,000,000
RP	Barnes, Matt	$8,125,000
RP	Houck, Tanner	$716,000
RP	Whitlock, Garrett	$1,200,000
RP	Taylor, Josh	$1,025,000
RP	Davis, Austin	$720,000
RP	Bullpen Arm	$6,000,000
Total	$214,022,484

 

[Cesar Crespo]

A question I have is: how? If the goal is to replicate the Rays model and "compete every single year," how do the Red Sox get to a place where they can still have a successful season even when things don't go to plan?

By having a patient ownership/fanbase. The farm won't be in a position to churn out major league players until 2024-25. 2018 was great, but it came at a cost.

 

[Sin Duda]

Nicely done, Moondog. I don't know Nimmo at all. Is he a good CFer? I see his nickname is Tater. George Scott would love it!

 

[moondog80]

Nicely done, Moondog. I don't know Nimmo at all. Is he a good CFer? I see his nickname is Tater. George Scott would love it!

Very good defender, good OBP guy, but injury prone.

 

[mikcou]

Yeah but Xander also plays SS while Devers plays 3b. Devers will be in the exact same spot as Xander next year re: age and contract. Xander had 16.4 career WAR, Devers is currently at 14.5.

There are currently 34 players with an OPS+ of 130 or higher. If you go to 123 (Devers career mark), it's 50.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-standard-batting.shtml scroll down and sort by OPS+.

If your point is that hes not the best player in MLB, point taken. In that sample that youre looking at, there's about 10 names (Judge, Arenado, Machado, Soto, Riley, Freeman, Betts, Altuve, Ohtani) who have already signed huge deals or the huge deals are coming and ten or so pre-arb or early arb guys.

Over ten of them are also 1B/DH only. My point wasn't that he's playing at the top of league, but that hes a top level player and to keep them requires big contracts.

I still dont get the Xander comps all that much - the accumulated WAR is similar, but everything else was different. Xander was at a juncture where if he was a 130 OPS+ bat he was worth a ton, but if he trended where he was most of his prior career he was a guy who would struggle to get much - average bats, weak defensive SS dont get significant money. He signed a deal that guaranteed him a lot of money, but also gave him the option that if he continued his good performance to get significantly more after a few years. If Devers wants to sign a similar deal, then they should go ahead and do that - I suspect he wont - the picture of who he is is a lot clearer.

 

[grepal]

Another year of Franchy and Dalbec together. I think at least one should/must go. With Casas and Hosmer is there a need for either of them?

 

[LogansDad]

Very good defender, good OBP guy, but injury prone.

Not only is he a very good CF now, by all accounts I have seen he had to work really hard to get there. His Statcast numbers have gotten better every year. I think he's very close to my #1 guy I want the Sox to target this offseason.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This isn't about 2023 or the Red Sox, exactly, so maybe it should go elsewhere, but when the Sox were playing Tampa recently I got to considering how many things have gone wrong for the 2022 Rays:

- Their #1 SP (Tyler Glasnow) has missed the entire season
- Their #1 prospect/young superstar (Wander Franco) has only played 58 games due to injury and put up a 104 OPS+
- One of their best hitters and fielders (Brandon Lowe, 39 HR last year) has only played 61 games due to injury
- Their All Star Catcher (Mike Zunino, 33 HR last year) was lost for the season
- Their new, new, NEW young budding ace (Shane Baz) has only pitched 27 IP this season due to injury

I'm sure there's more I -- or @VORP Speed could mention. But put that way, their woes seem at least in the same ballpark (pun definitely intended) as the Red Sox'.

And yet here they are, 72-57, on pace to win 90 games and make the playoffs yet again.

A question I have is: how? If the goal is to replicate the Rays model and "compete every single year," how do the Red Sox get to a place where they can still have a successful season even when things don't go to plan?

The how is simple. They have a much deeper farm system than the Red Sox do at the moment. That's it, that's all it is. We've seen talk of a Red Sox player development machine for the last 20 years. The Rays have it and have had it for 15 years now and they're continued to be good at restocking it through the draft and with timely trades selling high on certain players (google the Delmon Young trade tree for an example). Sox are still in the early stages of trying to emulate that.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Another year of Franchy and Dalbec together. I think at least one should/must go. With Casas and Hosmer is there a need for either of them?

Can Dalbec be stashed in AAA? If Casas is any good, he makes more sense than Hosmer. Cordero could still play in the OF but wouldn't be needed at 1b.

Hosmer only makes sense if Casas scuffles to start the year or is in AAA.

 

[moondog80]

Another year of Franchy and Dalbec together. I think at least one should/must go. With Casas and Hosmer is there a need for either of them?

Yeah, that's probably right.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The how is simple. They have a much deeper farm system than the Red Sox do at the moment. That's it, that's all it is. We've seen talk of a Red Sox player development machine for the last 20 years. The Rays have it and have had it for 15 years now and they're continued to be good at restocking it through the draft and with timely trades selling high on certain players (google the Delmon Young trade tree for an example). Sox are still in the early stages of trying to emulate that.

Can Boston sell high on players while being expected to compete for a title? I know it works for the Rays but the Sox would be called cheap. Although, I guess they have been doing it anyway. The results haven't been very good, yet.

 

[dhappy42]

This isn't perfect, but here's a crack at what seems possible for next year. Some of the numbers are my WAG but I think they are probably all kind of close. I'd feel like this team could contend.

1B	Casas, Triston	$700,000
1B	Hosmer, Eric	$250,000
2M	Story, Trevor	$20,000,000
MI	Arroyo, Christian	$2,500,000
SS	Big Time SS (6 years)	$25,000,000
3B	Devers, Rafael (8 years)	$28,000,000
OF	Verdugo, Alex	$5,000,000
OF	Cordero, Franchy	$2,000,000
OF	Hernandez, Kike (1 year)	$8,000,000
OF	Nimmo, Brandon (5 years)	$18,000,000
C	McGuire, Reese	$1,500,000
C	Wong, Connor	$700,000
DH	Dalbec, Bobby	$714,000
DH/OF	Pham, Tommy (1 year)	$4,000,000
SP	Sale, Chris	$24,172,484
SP	Pivetta, Nick	$4,000,000
SO	Bello, Brayan	$700,000
SO	Rodon, Carlos (5 years)	$25,000,000
SP	Eovaldi, Nate (2 years)	$15,000,000
SP	Wacha, Michael (3 years)	$11,000,000
RP	Barnes, Matt	$8,125,000
RP	Houck, Tanner	$716,000
RP	Whitlock, Garrett	$1,200,000
RP	Taylor, Josh	$1,025,000
RP	Davis, Austin	$720,000
RP	Bullpen Arm	$6,000,000
Total	$214,022,484

Looks good, but why not move Story to SS, start Arroyo at 2B and use the $25K + $18K (Nimmo) to make a bid for Judge as an OF/DH?

 

[Ale Xander]

Yup. And that roster lacks a RF, unless you want to move Verdugo to his weaker corner.

 

[moondog80]

Yup. And that roster lacks a RF, unless you want to move Verdugo to his weaker corner.

One of Kike/Nimmo plays RF.

 

[moondog80]

Looks good, but why not move Story to SS, start Arroyo at 2B and use the $25K + $18K (Nimmo) to make a bid for Judge as an OF/DH?

Maybe. And a dozen other things too. The point of the exercise wasn't "what will the team look like" (it won't look like that), more like "can they put together a contending team?" And I think the answer is yes, though I think my example takes on a bit more long term risk than they want at this point.

 

[Ale Xander]

One of Kike/Nimmo plays RF.

I don't think Enrique has the arm for it and I'd definitely want to keep Nimmo in CF. I think if you get Nimmo, you don't sign Enrique and get a Renfrow in '21 type for RF