What does 2023 look like?

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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First half of this year they were a 90 win team. Then they had to use almost the entire Worcester pitching staff for a month and not surprisingly had a horrid month that took them down to .500. So yeah sure, if they have to get something like 40 unexpected starts from rookie pitchers again next season then they're probably going to struggle.

Btw, if we focus on the body of work that was the 2nd half of 2021, and ignore the covid context that brought that half down and nearly tanked the season, that would be an 84 win pace, which is about what the 2022 Sox were projected for, and if they were on an 84 win pace right now they'd be right in the playoff race.
Correct in all accounts.....Technically we would be in it. Ready to play 27 of our next 39 games against AL East teams. (Which by the way we are 16-33 so far in 2022)
 

scottyno

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Correct in all accounts.....Technically we would be in it. Ready to play 27 of our next 39 games against AL East teams. (Which by the way we are 16-33 so far in 2022)
A big chunk of that 16-33 being part of the July stretch where they had to throw rookie pitchers almost every night (4-13 vs the al east in july)
 

snowmanny

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I think we all know we only made the playoffs last year because of well the Sox played in the first half.
Going 17-11 after August 31st was probably helpful too. Then they went 6-5 in the playoffs. Doesn’t seem all that much of a fluke to me.
 

Rovin Romine

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When I referred to the same team, I was referring mostly to the position players. So what are the differences? In 2021, we had Renfroe, Marwin G, and Franchy on the opening day roster. In 2022 , we had Story, JBJ, and Arauz. Aside from those players, the position players were the same. Sorry that's really not a good deal turnover, especially with the starting lineup.
I don't understand your point at all.
 

DC23

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Bloom sucks ass. That’s what up for ‘23. WTF is Bobby Dalbec on this team? No lefty off bench w/bases loaded. Go get THEO back,
Pronto!
 

scottyno

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Bloom sucks ass. That’s what up for ‘23. WTF is Bobby Dalbec on this team? No lefty off bench w/bases loaded. Go get THEO back,
Pronto!
Almost like there's no lefty (or righty) off the bench because everyone got hurt or something
 

nvalvo

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Bello, Barnes, McGuire and Cordero gave me some 2023 optimism in this deeply weird and frustrating game.

If Dalbec can backup SS, maybe he still has a place on the team LOL
 

walt in maryland

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Games started in 2022 (123 games)
- Pivetta: 25
- Eovaldi: 18
- Hill: 18
- Wacha: 15
- Winckowski: 13
- Crawford: 10
- Whitlock: 9
- Houck: 4
- Davis: 3
- Bello: 3
- Seabold: 3
- Sale: 2
- Paxton: 0

Their five "best" starters would have been: Pivetta, Eovaldi, Sale, Paxton, and Whitlock, IMO. But Sale wasn't expected to come back til early June, so let's say he was "supposed" to get about 20 starts. Paxton wasn't expected to come back til August, so let's say he was "supposed" to get about 12 starts. Eovaldi started 32 games last year so it was probably expected that he'd get 30 starts. Whitlock probably they hoped he would get about 20 starts. And Pivetta was probably expected to get 32-33.

So their best five starters were expected probably to get about 104 starts (64% of their total starts), leaving 58 (36%) for other guys like Wacha and Hill and others to fill in.

But so far, their best 5 starters have given them 25+18+9+2 = 54 starts out of 123 games, which is 44%. And that number will continue to go down because they're getting nothing from Sale or Paxton or Whitlock the rest of the way in terms of starts. And Eovaldi is on the IL. So it's reasonable to think that the rest of the season they might only get another 8-10 starts from their "best" five. So let's say they end up with 63 total from that group. That's just 39%, meaning some 61% of their starts will have gone to pitchers not among their "best" five, when that best five was probably projected to get about 64% of their starts. That's 41 starts LESS from their best five than they were probably hoping. (thereabouts)

But if you think of Hill and Wacha and even Whitlock as being in their best five, they've still needed 36 starts from Winckowski, Crawford, Houck, Davis, Bello, and Seabold. That's 29.3% of their team's starts - almost one out of every three games - being pitched by guys they weren't counting on to really pitch games for them.

Unless they were all studs, that's pretty hard to overcome. And clearly, they haven't.
Sale was 'expected" to be ready on Opening Day, before the rib fracture
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ultimately, I think the path to success for this team this year was getting more innings from Sale, Whitlock, and Houck. That’s not going to happen, obviously. I do think that the plan for Houck and Whitlock was not well articulated or executed; and I wonder what is in store for these two next year- who seem really key to the teams future.
 

chrisfont9

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Correct in all accounts.....Technically we would be in it. Ready to play 27 of our next 39 games against AL East teams. (Which by the way we are 16-33 so far in 2022)
A big chunk of that 16-33 being part of the July stretch where they had to throw rookie pitchers almost every night (4-13 vs the al east in july)
OMG thank you for this. Listening to media coverage has been making me wonder if I just imagined all of the injuries or if, to quote every Pete Abe article, the Sox just don't feel like winning.

Overall people's overreaction to this season and complete inability to understand what the team is doing is pretty off-putting. They are between windows of competition and patching together a quasi-contender while clearing salary space, accumulating talent, and getting ready for the big move. The shoestring approach worked great last year and badly this year. It doesn't mean they are incompetent; it just means you can't always have everything right this fucking second.

They will be competitive next year, but if you compare the roster to teams whose windows are really open, like Toronto, San Diego, LA, Houston and a few others, it won't be very encouraging.
 

chrisfont9

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The plan was to tether him to a returning Paxton and squeeze one pretty good LHP starter out of that deal. Like everything else, it blew up for reasons sorta but not really in their control. Next year maybe that sort of thing ends up working?
If he's really going to take the Clemens approach of not pitching until mid-season, he's probably going to remain a free agent until after the season starts. Which means whoever does sign him will be doing so because they have a clear need. He's not going to sign somewhere in December/January with the intent of not taking the field until July. For one, where does the team stash him in the meantime? Restricted list? IL?

All the best to him if that's how he wants to go. I imagine the team who takes him up on it will be in pretty rough shape already to need to give him a shot.
 

chrisfont9

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If he's really going to take the Clemens approach of not pitching until mid-season, he's probably going to remain a free agent until after the season starts. Which means whoever does sign him will be doing so because they have a clear need. He's not going to sign somewhere in December/January with the intent of not taking the field until July. For one, where does the team stash him in the meantime? Restricted list? IL?

All the best to him if that's how he wants to go. I imagine the team who takes him up on it will be in pretty rough shape already to need to give him a shot.
Maybe, although if you look at the deadline deals, contending teams like the Cardinals, Twins, Phillies etc. all picked up depth starters not terribly different from adding a rested Hill.
 

scottyno

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April to June Hill was a pretty solid pitcher that can definitely still help a contending team. Of course, he'll be 43 next year, so the fall off from useful to useless could come at any time, but if he actually wants to go that road I'm sure someone will be interested in him next summer assuming he's healthy.
 

Ale Xander

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CF Duran (ewww)
3B Devers
1B Casas
LF Verdugo
2B Story
RF Arroyo
DH Cordero
SS Dalbec
C Reese
 

moondog80

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How solid were the reports that the Sox wanted Story at 2B because of concerns about his arm? Because Arroyo looks like he can handle 2B, if Story’s arm can survive SS all of a sudden they can extend Devers to take care of the IF and have a whole lot of $$$ left over for the OF and pitching staff.
 

scottyno

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How solid were the reports that the Sox wanted Story at 2B because of concerns about his arm? Because Arroyo looks like he can handle 2B, if Story’s arm can survive SS all of a sudden they can extend Devers to take care of the IF and have a whole lot of $$$ left over for the OF and pitching staff.
Arroyo can probably handle short as well as he can 2nd. The problem is that he hasn't played over 100 games since 2016.
 

moondog80

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Arroyo can probably handle short as well as he can 2nd. The problem is that he hasn't played over 100 games since 2016.
I feel like if this were true teams would found a way to use him more than ~10% of his defensive innings?
 

scottyno

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I feel like if this were true teams would found a way to use him more than ~10% of his defensive innings?
Most of those innings are with the Red Sox who haven't needed a shortstop much over the last 3 seasons.

About 80 innings at short with the Giants in 2017 and about 90 with Boston from 2020-2022 and he's about league average. He's definitely better at 2nd, but I wouldn't worry too much about him having to play short if they don't want to move Story. If he can stay healthy, which is a big if. He's probably best fit in a super sub role where he could give 3 or 4 guys a game off once a week, then when he gets injured it isn't as big a loss.
 

budcrew08

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Maybe this is game-thready and reaction to the end of the game tonight, but why is there any optimism that 2023 will be that much better? Bloated contracts for guys who haven’t and maybe won’t ever pitch for us, free agents that will be banging down the door to get the fuck out of Boston. Why is 2023 any better than 2022? I argue it could be worse.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Agree. The teams second best offensive player is a FA. Their best starting pitcher is a FA. Help from the minors seems pretty limited in the near term. They appear to be set at 3B, 2B or SS, LF.

What al east team do the Sox look better than?

or course, they should have some cash, hopefully they spend it wisely. Lots of holes to fill.
 

scottyno

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One of their best starting pitchers threw 2 starts this year and the other has been pretty much useless since early June. And their $20m DH has been useless almost as long.

That's almost $70m between 3 players for like 2 WAR of production. It's pretty much impossible they won't do better than that next year. Not to mention losing Story for almost half the season and all the other injuries that are pretty unlikely to happen again.
 

soxhop411

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One of their best starting pitchers threw 2 starts this year and the other has been pretty much useless since early June. And their $20m DH has been useless almost as long.

That's almost $70m between 3 players for like 2 WAR of production. It's pretty much impossible they won't do better than that next year.
1000000%
Here are the stat lines for our “highly paid” middle of the order bats the second half of this season.
Xander

Devers

JDM


i mean at this point i cant really fault Cora or Bloom.
Like WTH are they supposed to do when these three players have fallen off a cliff in the second half.
 

budcrew08

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1000000%
Here are the stat lines for our “highly paid” middle of the order bats the second half of this season.
Xander

Devers

JDM


i mean at this point i cant really fault Cora or Bloom.
Like WTH are they supposed to do when these three players have fallen off a cliff in the second half.
But then the question becomes why? Hitting coach? Manager? Injuries? Why have they all fallen off so fast? How many guys go from all-star to yuck that quickly?
 

soxhop411

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But then the question becomes why? Hitting coach? Manager? Injuries? Why have they all fallen off so fast? How many guys go from all-star to yuck that quickly?
Or just “luck” (bad luck). Players can all have bad seasons. Its just shit luck for them all to have it at once.

it just sucks that these three players who are being paid the big $$$ to be our middle of the order bats this season are hitting like this. And when they all happen at once there really is not much Cora and Bloom can do given the amount those three make in regards to our payroll this season.
 
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scottyno

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Or just “luck” (bad luck). Players can all have bad seasons. Its just shit luck for them all to have it at once.

it just sucks that these three players who are being paid the big $$$ to be our middle of the order bats this season are hitting like this. And when they all happen at once there really is not much Cora and Bloom can do given the amount those three make in regards to our payroll this season.
Yeah, luck or injuries are really the only explanation for X or Devers. Martinez could be cooked or it could be injuries.

Devers was an MVP caliber hitter through the end of July, in August he's been god awful.

Bogaerts was having a great year through July, in August he's been god awful. His clustering has been bad all year, which is also almost certainly luck, he's been bad in clutch situations when over his career he's hit well in them.

Martinez it's probably the back that's been bothering him for awhile, the question would be if that's ever something that'll get better, because he went from mvp caliber to terrible pretty much overnight.

There's 0 reason to blame coaching for any of that, unless we think the coaches made them change something midseason that was working really well.
 

Rovin Romine

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Or just “luck” (bad luck). Players can all have bad seasons. Its just shit luck for them all to have it at once.

it just sucks that these three players who are being paid the big $$$ to be our middle of the order bats this season are hitting like this. And when they all happen at once there really is not much Cora and Bloom can do given the amount those three make in regards to our payroll this season.
Hitting coach is the main suspect. They're supposed to keep guys on track. Very few hitters trend better for the Red Sox.
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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Maybe this is game-thready and reaction to the end of the game tonight, but why is there any optimism that 2023 will be that much better? Bloated contracts for guys who haven’t and maybe won’t ever pitch for us, free agents that will be banging down the door to get the fuck out of Boston. Why is 2023 any better than 2022? I argue it could be worse.
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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You are probably right. Raffy, X, JDM and to some extent Vazquez has carried this team, especially in the first half.

It's quite possible that Raffy is the lone man standing next year. If there is no bat to protect him in the lineup, teams will just pitch around him in 2023
 

Harry Hooper

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It taken a lot of games, but Cora getting around to criticizing the hitting approach in 2022. In the post game, he mentioned hitting the ball all around the field, advancing runners, and “They make pitches but at the same time, you can’t expand,” Cora told reporters, as seen on NESN postgame coverage. “It’s not easy. I hit .230 in the big leagues. I was a horrible hitter. But I think we’re better than that.”

LINK

What can the club do to revamp the batters' approach for 2023?
 

IpswichSox

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Not sure that's a direct criticism of the hitting coaches. Cora has similarly criticized JD this year for pitch selection and expanding the zone. Given JD's approach and reliance on his own coaching, that's probably just on JD, not a particular fault of the coaches.

Still, you can't fire the players...
 

Rovin Romine

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Not sure that's a direct criticism of the hitting coaches. Cora has similarly criticized JD this year for pitch selection and expanding the zone. Given JD's approach and reliance on his own coaching, that's probably just on JD, not a particular fault of the coaches.

Still, you can't fire the players...
You can coach them. And frankly, yes, you can fire them. You control their careers. So, "You practice X and do Y, or you won't see the bigs or stay in them." That's pretty tacitly understood, I'd think.

The recent Sox have been all about pushing launch angle and aggressively early in the count. Under Cora's tenure they haven't (by and large) pinch hit, stolen bases, or manufactured runs. They certainly weren't preached the virtues of patience or drawing walk or running up pitch counts on starters. Because they don't do those things. This iteration of the ballclub either does not have those skills (at large) or they're atrophied from non-use.

I think what we're seeing is the result of an application of a hitting philosophy that's ill-matched to many of the players.

Duran's sort of the perfect poster child for this. He's got a skill, but the club really seemed to have no idea how to play to that skill in games, beyond "He's fast. So when he gets on base he'll be like everyone else but faster." He was brought up because (in part) he hit MiL pitchers for power. Launch angle, all that jazz. But that does not translate to ML pitchers for whatever reason. Same with Dalbec and Cordero, generally. Schwarber provided a negative example. He shows up and preaches patience in late 2021, and, in the process rebuilds Dalbec's swing and approach to something that's very effective.

***

Also, whatever Cora says to the media is ass-covering bullshit. If he wanted to push patience and more walks and situational hitting, he could have done that from spring training in 2021. He can't seriously say that this is all on the players all off the sudden. The players are approaching these situations they same way they have all year long.

My guess is that when the team started cold, and they blamed external factors and bad luck, but decided to stick with the same game approach and hitting philosophy. Then the team got hot with the same approach (and Story/JD's streaks) and they felt vindicated. Over the long-haul they would score X runs with this approach, and X runs would be enough to keep them in contention. So why change things? Weather's getting hotter, keep barreling balls and hope for the best. It will all come out in the wash.

Except it didn't.

And, if the shift ban is real, they'll probably stick with it, just to see if BABIP changes with the "smack it hard and early" philosophy. If it's not, the club's offense will probably look very much the same in 2023. Maybe good in aggregate (if they're healthy), but inflexible and often plain shitty.
 

scottyno

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You are probably right. Raffy, X, JDM and to some extent Vazquez has carried this team, especially in the first half.

It's quite possible that Raffy is the lone man standing next year. If there is no bat to protect him in the lineup, teams will just pitch around him in 2023
There's 0 chance that there won't be another big bat in the lineup next year, probably several with as much money as they'll be spending. We just don't know who it will be.
 

sezwho

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You can coach them. And frankly, yes, you can fire them. You control their careers. So, "You practice X and do Y, or you won't see the bigs or stay in them." That's pretty tacitly understood, I'd think.

The recent Sox have been all about pushing launch angle and aggressively early in the count. Under Cora's tenure they haven't (by and large) pinch hit, stolen bases, or manufactured runs. They certainly weren't preached the virtues of patience or drawing walk or running up pitch counts on starters. Because they don't do those things. This iteration of the ballclub either does not have those skills (at large) or they're atrophied from non-use.

I think what we're seeing is the result of an application of a hitting philosophy that's ill-matched to many of the players.

Duran's sort of the perfect poster child for this. He's got a skill, but the club really seemed to have no idea how to play to that skill in games, beyond "He's fast. So when he gets on base he'll be like everyone else but faster." He was brought up because (in part) he hit MiL pitchers for power. Launch angle, all that jazz. But that does not translate to ML pitchers for whatever reason. Same with Dalbec and Cordero, generally. Schwarber provided a negative example. He shows up and preaches patience in late 2021, and, in the process rebuilds Dalbec's swing and approach to something that's very effective.

***

Also, whatever Cora says to the media is ass-covering bullshit. If he wanted to push patience and more walks and situational hitting, he could have done that from spring training in 2021. He can't seriously say that this is all on the players all off the sudden. The players are approaching these situations they same way they have all year long.

My guess is that when the team started cold, and they blamed external factors and bad luck, but decided to stick with the same game approach and hitting philosophy. Then the team got hot with the same approach (and Story/JD's streaks) and they felt vindicated. Over the long-haul they would score X runs with this approach, and X runs would be enough to keep them in contention. So why change things? Weather's getting hotter, keep barreling balls and hope for the best. It will all come out in the wash.

Except it didn't.

And, if the shift ban is real, they'll probably stick with it, just to see if BABIP changes with the "smack it hard and early" philosophy. If it's not, the club's offense will probably look very much the same in 2023. Maybe good in aggregate (if they're healthy), but inflexible and often plain shitty.
Great post.

This whole plate approach just smacks of trend following. This is not the same as analytics, rather just charting maybe as an analog. I’m sure there was an opportunity identified in attacking early in the day of every team trying to wear down the starters. That doesn’t make it a good choice long-term overall suddenly, it means you’re up against a trend. The league is adjusting. Plenty of smart investors went broke thinking they figured something out, when really it’s bet on a trend that lasted long enough to make some money before they eventually went broke again.
 

mfried

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You can coach them. And frankly, yes, you can fire them. You control their careers. So, "You practice X and do Y, or you won't see the bigs or stay in them." That's pretty tacitly understood, I'd think.

The recent Sox have been all about pushing launch angle and aggressively early in the count. Under Cora's tenure they haven't (by and large) pinch hit, stolen bases, or manufactured runs. They certainly weren't preached the virtues of patience or drawing walk or running up pitch counts on starters. Because they don't do those things. This iteration of the ballclub either does not have those skills (at large) or they're atrophied from non-use.

I think what we're seeing is the result of an application of a hitting philosophy that's ill-matched to many of the players.

Duran's sort of the perfect poster child for this. He's got a skill, but the club really seemed to have no idea how to play to that skill in games, beyond "He's fast. So when he gets on base he'll be like everyone else but faster." He was brought up because (in part) he hit MiL pitchers for power. Launch angle, all that jazz. But that does not translate to ML pitchers for whatever reason. Same with Dalbec and Cordero, generally. Schwarber provided a negative example. He shows up and preaches patience in late 2021, and, in the process rebuilds Dalbec's swing and approach to something that's very effective.

***

Also, whatever Cora says to the media is ass-covering bullshit. If he wanted to push patience and more walks and situational hitting, he could have done that from spring training in 2021. He can't seriously say that this is all on the players all off the sudden. The players are approaching these situations they same way they have all year long.

My guess is that when the team started cold, and they blamed external factors and bad luck, but decided to stick with the same game approach and hitting philosophy. Then the team got hot with the same approach (and Story/JD's streaks) and they felt vindicated. Over the long-haul they would score X runs with this approach, and X runs would be enough to keep them in contention. So why change things? Weather's getting hotter, keep barreling balls and hope for the best. It will all come out in the wash.

Except it didn't.

And, if the shift ban is real, they'll probably stick with it, just to see if BABIP changes with the "smack it hard and early" philosophy. If it's not, the club's offense will probably look very much the same in 2023. Maybe good in aggregate (if they're healthy), but inflexible and often plain shitty.
Duran has three skills: bunting, running and hitting line drives to left field. Bunting and running can combine for a modest number of base hits, and running should develop more consistently into stealing, which he attempts rarely. Hitting to left field could set up stealings or moving aggressively on the base paths. Duran's defensive skills seem so problematic that they could neutralize any offensive potential, in which case he shouldn't be on the team.
 

Rovin Romine

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Duran has three skills:
I didn't mention Duran to have a discussion about his pros and cons as an overall player. Rather the question is, do the offensive tactics and strategies Red Sox adapt to the payers they have on the roster? Or are the players shoe-horned into a basic approach?
 

johnlos

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Schwarber was a -3 DRS in 75 innings at 1st last year. The defense absolutely could have been way worse. This also assumes that Schwarber would have had any interest in playing 1st for a full season. Especially when you no longer have Story at 2nd. That team would have been worse than the one they ended up with.
Was watching Phillies the other night with Schwarbs miked up in LF and he said he was so happy to be back in the OF because he hated playing 1st. I'm sure it factored into his decision.
 

johnlos

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On Bloom I’ll say that he was dealt a crap hand having to move Betts for salary relief as his first order. Combine that with the plague stalling player development and it was a tough job. And MLB did him no favors in canceling the Rule 5 Draft last winter. He’s shown a knack for poaching talent that way. I’m willing to give him an incomplete for now and wait to see what ‘23 looks like. If he comes up with a useful piece in Rule 5, Casas forces his way into the lineup, and the minor league talent looks improved (Rafaela lights up Worcester and gets a late season call up, Mayer and Yorke make Portland, Jordan lights up Greenville, Bleis continues his march through the system), and finds some fucking OF help (and to me Verdugo being the best OF on the roster is the real biggest problem), then I’ll give him a good grade.
Kiké, Pivetta, Schwarber, Whitlock, Wacha, even Story acquired at great values. Team made ALCS in 2021 without selling many assets. As you said Mookie deal wasn't really on him. And has taken farm system from 30th in baseball to 11th-13th (depending on source). Hard to say he's doing a *bad* job.
 

nvalvo

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Here’s a question: have the second half collapses of Devers and Bogaerts shifted anyone’s thinking on the necessity or desirability of extending either or both of them?

I am genuinely unsure.