What does 2023 look like?

YTF

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Is the bolded sarcasm? I mean nobody takes gold gloves seriously, right? Derek Jeter and '99 Rafael Palmeiro are classic examples of why the award is a sham.

Eric Hosmer is below average for his career in every major fielding metric including defensive runs saved, range, and zone rating. He was arguable competent in his KC days, but he has not been good since.
Nope not sarcasm at all. I'm well aware of the Palmeiro farce and one can certainly argue individual deservedness of awards from certain years, but nobody takes the award seriously? Perhaps it might not always fall in line with the metric or metrics du jour, but I'm willing to guess that the overwhelming majority of recipients were damn fine defenders in the year(s) that they were recognized. I'll gladly defer to your knowledge on the matter, but 4 GGs in 5 seasons while starting an average of 146 games per season at the position seems like more than competent to me and what led me to ask the question.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Nope not sarcasm at all. I'm well aware of the Palmeiro farce and one can certainly argue individual deservedness of awards from certain years, but nobody takes the award seriously? Perhaps it might not always fall in line with the metric or metrics du jour, but I'm willing to guess that the overwhelming majority of recipients were damn fine defenders in the year(s) that they were recognized. I'll gladly defer to your knowledge on the matter, but 4 GGs in 5 seasons while starting an average of 146 games per season at the position seems like more than competent to me and what led me to ask the question.
FWIW, the first couple years he won the Gold Glove, defensive metrics showed him to be above average though not outstanding (Total Zone +5 and +2, DRS +1 and +3). By the time he won his last, those stats were in the negative. So there might have been some reputational bias for those.

That said, his numbers are mixed depending on the metric over the last few years. Total Zone generally still likes him (-1, +3, 0, +4, 0 since he left KC), DRS mostly doesn't (+2, -6, +3, -4, -2). Overall, there's absolutely no reason to think he's a butcher. He handles the position just fine.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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This was a good read - although still a few years old & I wish it put actual #s on things:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18519226/show-mind-games-mutual-options-not-money





So you guys win - I do think it would make sense if the reporting on contracts specified, though, because to me options 3 & 4 make by far the most sense in terms of there actually being an overlap when a mutual option makes sense & isn't just for show.
Reporting sucks in general. Baseball reporting. Football reporting. Weather reporting. News reporting. Political reporting. Etc. There just aren't that many really good writers, and the ones that are really good can't cover everything. Which is why experts and insiders are so important, whether or not they are reporters. It can often be hard to find experts and insiders. You had a hard time finding good reporting about "Inside Baseball". Good luck finding good free reporting about what's going on in Ukraine. Good luck finding good reporting on Covid and vaccines. Good luck finding good reporting on what's going on with the airlines. Good luck finding anything like that from available journalists.

But you, you have an amazing advantage over your friends and 99% of society. You have SoSH. Here we have experts and insiders who share their knowledge for free. We have incredible experts about Covid. We have incredible experts about Ukraine. We have incredible experts about the airlines. We have incredible experts about Supply Chain. And we have incredible experts about Inside Baseball. ENJOY the information. STEEP in the expertise. AMAZE YOUR FRIENDS with your ability to explain these difficult topics all because we have people here willing to share their years of knowledge with us.
 

YTF

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FWIW, the first couple years he won the Gold Glove, defensive metrics showed him to be above average though not outstanding (Total Zone +5 and +2, DRS +1 and +3). By the time he won his last, those stats were in the negative. So there might have been some reputational bias for those.

That said, his numbers are mixed depending on the metric over the last few years. Total Zone generally still likes him (-1, +3, 0, +4, 0 since he left KC), DRS mostly doesn't (+2, -6, +3, -4, -2). Overall, there's absolutely no reason to think he's a butcher. He handles the position just fine.
Thanks for this
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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Hosmer is simply not an impactful player. Depending on the defensive numbers you look at, he's either below average or borderline-unplayably bad at 1B, and he's had precisely one positive oWAR season since 2017, and it was the pandemic shortened one. He had a few very well-timed good years in his middle 20s that won a title for KC and an insane overpay contract for him. He made sense for Boston in 2022 as a midseason Plan D at 1B. But in 2023, if your playoff aspirations hinge on giving Eric Hosmer an Opening Day roster spot simply because he's cheap, you don't actually have playoff aspirations. You're filling a roster spot with a below average player, with no remaining upside and all of the collapse potential of so-so post-30 hitters, who hits from the wrong side of the plate, on purpose. Also, you might lose some pitching depth in the Rule 5 draft because he's clogging up the 40-man.

Going all in on Casas, who has a wildly higher ceiling than Hosmer, is the move to make, I would argue, if you are intending to try to compete for a playoff spot, rather than just muddle to .500. Is there performance risk with Casas? Absolutely. But he's the best offensive prospect we've had since Devers, and if you're asking which player is the better bet to post a 3+ WAR season in 2023, it's Casas. Hell, I'd like Dalbec's chances to do that over Hosmer's.

When the Sox gave Dustin Pedroia the keys at second base in 2007, they had a 30 year old Alex Cora as the backup plan, who was already a few seasons deep into the Yolmer Sanchez stage of his playing career. He had had an OPS+ of 56 the year prior. But he actually had a useful carrying tool for the roster, which was good defense at several positions — and being a well-regarded sign stealer.
Then why does Chaim make the trade for him at all if your analysis is correct.? I wonder how your thinking is different than Chaims?

To revisit the trade....Boston receives, as you put it, a "non impactful player" to shore up 1B for 2 months of 2022, which apparently is "Plan D". Boston also receives two lottery ticket A ball types, for Jay Groome. Jay Groome - whom is a cost controlled AAA, LHP starter, that SoxProspects claims has" the ceiling of a number 5 starter"

I just don't see Chaim Bloom making this trade if he is not thinking beyond 2022. Basically giving up Groome for 2 A ball lotto tickets and 2 months of Hosmer makes no sense at all. The Sox are not making the playoffs in 2022 why was it so important to shore up 1B for a 4th place team.

I'm sorry but Hosmer is on the 40 man roster this off season. I know you don't want it, but it's the only way this deal makes any sense.
 

jon abbey

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I don’t think people are factoring in the personal lifelong relationship between Hosmer and Casas enough here, I feel like Bloom got him at least in part as a direct mentor, although I think that relationship will make it trickier to cut ties with Hosmer if and when they want to.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I don’t think people are factoring in the personal lifelong relationship between Hosmer and Casas enough here, I feel like Bloom got him at least in part as a direct mentor, although I think that relationship will make it trickier to cut ties with Hosmer if and when they want to.
That is a double-edged sword. But I think professional baseball players understand those moves. Ask Xander about Jair.
 

snowmanny

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The mentor part may be a factor, and if nothing else this low cost acquisition gives them some potential flexibility for next year. I don’t think any of us want a 105+ OPS bat at first, but if the opportunity to upgrade the lineup lies at a different position, eh, you can live with it for a bit.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Then why does Chaim make the trade for him at all if your analysis is correct.? I wonder how your thinking is different than Chaims?

To revisit the trade....Boston receives, as you put it, a "non impactful player" to shore up 1B for 2 months of 2022, which apparently is "Plan D". Boston also receives two lottery ticket A ball types, for Jay Groome. Jay Groome - whom is a cost controlled AAA, LHP starter, that SoxProspects claims has" the ceiling of a number 5 starter"

I just don't see Chaim Bloom making this trade if he is not thinking beyond 2022. Basically giving up Groome for 2 A ball lotto tickets and 2 months of Hosmer makes no sense at all. The Sox are not making the playoffs in 2022 why was it so important to shore up 1B for a 4th place team.

I'm sorry but Hosmer is on the 40 man roster this off season. I know you don't want it, but it's the only way this deal makes any sense.
"Ceiling of a number 5 starter" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement, despite Groome's draft pedigree. He lost something following his Tommy John surgery and was likely going to be a roster crunch casualty this winter if he wasn't moved at the deadline. When the team faced a pitching crunch a month ago, Groome was not considered an option for a spot start or even a short-term bullpen role, which I think it is indicative of where he falls on the depth chart. Basically what I'm saying is I don't think he is the significant trade chip that you want to credit him as.

Hosmer might survive the winter on the roster (I expect him to unless Casas shows something big over the next six weeks) but he's not going to be around much longer than that. And if he does get moved during the winter, presumably he'll bring back another non-Rule-5 eligible prospect that effectively turns one 40-man casualty (Groome) into three guys they can have around for a few years.
 

johnlos

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What would a trade for Schwarber look like? The Phillies are fatally flawed with their current defensive shortcomings and Schwarber made it clear in a recent interview that he wished he had come back to Boston (not that his feelings about it matter much for trade purposes).
Schwarber's wife is from the Philly area and it was one of his target destinations. He loves it there from what I can tell--I think he was just being nice about the Boston thing
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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"Ceiling of a number 5 starter" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement, despite Groome's draft pedigree. He lost something following his Tommy John surgery and was likely going to be a roster crunch casualty this winter if he wasn't moved at the deadline. When the team faced a pitching crunch a month ago, Groome was not considered an option for a spot start or even a short-term bullpen role, which I think it is indicative of where he falls on the depth chart. Basically what I'm saying is I don't think he is the significant trade chip that you want to credit him as.

Hosmer might survive the winter on the roster (I expect him to unless Casas shows something big over the next six weeks) but he's not going to be around much longer than that. And if he does get moved during the winter, presumably he'll bring back another non-Rule-5 eligible prospect that effectively turns one 40-man casualty (Groome) into three guys they can have around for a few years.
Fair enough....But you didn't answer the question, Why does Chaim make the trade? You question Groome pedigree. OK. Hosmer's "Not going to be around much longer". OK.
What is the whole purpose of this trade if your analysis is correct ? If neither Groome nor Hosmer has future value, why make the deal to begin with?
 

Yo La Tengo

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Schwarber's wife is from the Philly area and it was one of his target destinations. He loves it there from what I can tell--I think he was just being nice about the Boston thing
Not that it matters that much but I think Schwarber and his wife are from Middletown, Ohio. They went to high school together.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Fair enough....But you didn't answer the question, Why does Chaim make the trade? You question Groome pedigree. OK. Hosmer's "Not going to be around much longer". OK.
What is the whole purpose of this trade if your analysis is correct ? If neither Groome nor Hosmer has future value, why make the deal to begin with?
They traded for Hosmer and Pham, I think, because the cost was low, and they needed players at those positions to finish out the season and quasi-contend. That both players could potentially be part of the future is an added bonus. I think Bloom likes the flexibility, but I doubt they even know at this time how much longer either player will stick around.
 

Daniel_Son

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Fair enough....But you didn't answer the question, Why does Chaim make the trade? You question Groome pedigree. OK. Hosmer's "Not going to be around much longer". OK.
What is the whole purpose of this trade if your analysis is correct ? If neither Groome nor Hosmer has future value, why make the deal to begin with?
Because on August 2, Triston Casas was not ready to be brought up, and Hosmer was the most valuable way to upgrade 1B.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Fair enough....But you didn't answer the question, Why does Chaim make the trade? You question Groome pedigree. OK. Hosmer's "Not going to be around much longer". OK.
What is the whole purpose of this trade if your analysis is correct ? If neither Groome nor Hosmer has future value, why make the deal to begin with?
Uh, because Hosmer has immediate value since they need someone to play 1B who's better than Dalbec or Cordero. And he has potential future value in the event that Casas falls off the world somehow.
 

YTF

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Fair enough....But you didn't answer the question, Why does Chaim make the trade? You question Groome pedigree. OK. Hosmer's "Not going to be around much longer". OK.
What is the whole purpose of this trade if your analysis is correct ? If neither Groome nor Hosmer has future value, why make the deal to begin with?
In addition to RHF's response to this post, the last sentence of the post that you quoted provides another look at Hosmer's value.

And if he does get moved during the winter, presumably he'll bring back another non-Rule-5 eligible prospect that effectively turns one 40-man casualty (Groome) into three guys they can have around for a few years.
 

nvalvo

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Then why does Chaim make the trade for him at all if your analysis is correct.? I wonder how your thinking is different than Chaims?

To revisit the trade....Boston receives, as you put it, a "non impactful player" to shore up 1B for 2 months of 2022, which apparently is "Plan D". Boston also receives two lottery ticket A ball types, for Jay Groome. Jay Groome - whom is a cost controlled AAA, LHP starter, that SoxProspects claims has" the ceiling of a number 5 starter"

I just don't see Chaim Bloom making this trade if he is not thinking beyond 2022. Basically giving up Groome for 2 A ball lotto tickets and 2 months of Hosmer makes no sense at all. The Sox are not making the playoffs in 2022 why was it so important to shore up 1B for a 4th place team.

I'm sorry but Hosmer is on the 40 man roster this off season. I know you don't want it, but it's the only way this deal makes any sense.
Thank you for actually making the argument rather than just asserting that thinking otherwise was insane. Here's my reasoning about the trade and Hosmer's role on the team.

Hosmer at $730k (or whatever it is) is a positive value asset for a team that does not have a healthy, MLB-ready 1B and isn't ready to give up on contention, which described Boston at the time the deal was made.

But since the trade was made, a few things have happened. The Sox have gone 4-7, not exactly improving their position in the wild card chase. Hosmer has hit .192/.276/.308 in 29 PA, a small sample performance that is actually dragging down the already-terrible Sox season line at 1B, and can hardly be said to be powering us back into contention. And Casas' excellent performance since his return from the ankle injury means it probably won't describe Boston for much longer: three games with a bunch of strikeouts, then 17 games with a .270/.365/.540 line, including a 23% K rate and 14% BB rate.

We also got two prospects, Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson. Rosier is a 22 year old outfielder in high-A not setting the world on fire offensively, but he has a really good strikeout to walk ratio and he's had good power seasons in the lower minors, so he's at least a biiiit of a prospect. There are some tools there; maybe he can put it together. Ferguson is an infielder, also 22 in high-A, with impressive plate discipline and stolen base numbers. Again, if he can nudge that SLG up to like .390 from .350, maybe there's a utility upside there. Not exactly a massive prospect haul. Two guys who are older than the good prospects in high A, but at least have some kind of carrying tool. Long shots, but they do not need to be rostered this offseason. I would characterize this as a "modest" prospect return.

So what did we give up? Jay Groome, who at one point was a top-3 prospect in a much weaker Sox system that had little pitching. But a lot has happened since 2019.

Groome has reached AAA as a starter — awesome! — but it took him a long time to do so because of injury. He came back from said injury without the same stuff (snap on curve, FB velo) that had made him so exciting. It happens. And he lost time: between his recovery and the lost pandemic season, he already needed to be rostered last year, but his stuff and experience were such that he's clearly not advanced enough to actually be useful MLB depth today. So he was on the 40 man, but he'd been passed on our depth chart by several guys, including several — Thaddeus Ward, Wikelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter — who now need roster protection. We actually have a lot of talented young pitching now! If Groome weren't already on the roster, it wouldn't be an issue: he's likely not MLB-ready enough for a team to take in Rule 5. But he is on the roster, and to get him off he would need to be DFA'd. And we need him off the roster, because we can't just fill up the whole 40-man roster with young pitchers, especially guys whom we're pretty sure would get lit up in the big leagues right now. That said, there's no way he would get through waivers — he'd crack anybody's AAA rotation if he didn't need to be on the 40 man.

But risking losing one of the pitchers ahead of Groome on our depth chart to keep this version of Groome makes little sense to me. Relatedly, and as I've been arguing: risking losing one of those guys to keep Hosmer on the 40-man through the rule 5 draft this December is not a great idea, given how small his role would likely be after Casas' promotion.

So why did SD want Groome, then? Because if his stuff comes back, which could totally happen as he gets further from his surgery, he would again be a legit SP prospect. He's not that old. It wouldn't be unprecedented. SD (who have already traded or promoted all their high-minors SP depth) need AAA starters much more acutely than we do. They thus have a roster spot and plenty of innings in El Paso to give him to see if he can get that curveball snapping again. But here in Boston, we didn't really have time to find out. So in a sense, we're getting 2 months of Hosmer, Rosier and Ferguson for 2 months of Groome.

Maybe Boston will keep Hosmer! I'm not at all certain they won't! But I don't really think they should: if the A's or Pirates will send us an interesting rookie ball pitcher or two for Hosmer this offseason, we could effectively add to the return we got for Groome while clearing a roster spot for a RH backup corner infielder (perhaps Dalbec, perhaps Arroyo, perhaps someone else) to help Casas transition to the bigs before he has to face a ton of lefties.
 

chawson

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There are a lot of moving parts, but, if the Sox have a full-time designated hitter in 2023, this seems like a reasonable bench: Hosmer/Casas, Arroyo, Refsnyder (or someone similar), catcher. If there is no full-time DH, there could be a 5th player added to the bench mix.

Hosmer is hitting .317/.355/.416 against lefties this year in over 100 at bats. Last year he hit .262 and he's a career .254 hitter against lefties. He could start against tough lefties and let Casas take the rest.

I don't see any issue in starting the year with Hosmer and Casas on the opening day roster, with Casas playing 4-5 days a week (1B and DH), Hosmer playing 3 days a week (1B and DH), and seeing whether Casas is ready to be the full time first baseman. If we reach June 1st and Casas looks great, trade or cut Hosmer. Maybe at that point Dalbec is ready to come up or some other addition to the 1B/DH spot looks better. Regardless, the Sox need a viable option at 1B if Casas craps out next spring, and Hosmer is a good fit for that role in that he's a slightly above average player (who could benefit from hitting at Fenway) who costs almost no money. As for whether he accepts that role, what choice does Hosmer have? I think his status was made clear by what the Padres had to do to move him and his only option to play more is to put up good numbers.
Since he signed with San Diego in 2018, Hosmer has hit .232/.278/.341 against left-handed pitching, good for a 69 wRC+. For reference, that's slightly worse than Pablo Sandoval's first overall season at the plate in Boston.

Well, the choice he has is to be a pain in the clubhouse. Will he do that? I have no idea.

In any case, I think trading him this offseason makes sense precisely because he is a somewhat valuable asset at his current cost. That benefit is probably greater for a small or mid-market team that doesn't have a league-wide top-20 1B prospect in AAA, or maybe that has a promising prospect a year away or something. Right now, Pittsburgh is playing Michael Chavis and his .695 OPS at 1B most days; maybe Ben would like Hosmer as a positive veteran presence for their young team. Milwaukee has Rowdy Tellez, who hits decently but can't really field the position at all. Oakland has Seth Brown there, but maybe they'd rather play him in an outfield corner now that Piscotty is moving on. Are the White Sox retaining José Abreu? Maybe it would make sense for them to go cheap with Hosmer and throw some extensions at their young stars.
I think this is correct. Hosmer recently stated something to the effect of no offense to the Nats, but I want to play for a contender. He's likely to choose cellar-dwelling teams for his 10 no-trade blocks, but I think there'd be a market among mid-market contenders. The Twins have played Arraez out of position at first base all year. The Mariners made an emergency trade for Carlos Santana, whose contract is expiring. Cleveland is likely to trade Rosario for a haul and move Owen Miller back to second base, opening up a hole at first. Between them, the Giants, Brewers, Cubs and others, I think there'd be a market for him where all parties are happy.
 

BravesField

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Uh, because Hosmer has immediate value since they need someone to play 1B who's better than Dalbec or Cordero. And he has potential future value in the event that Casas falls off the world somehow.
You have written that "He has potential future value in the event Casas falls off the world somehow." But you also wrote earlier "Hosmer might survive the winter on the roster, but he's not going to be around longer than that." So which Hosmer are you refering to? the one with potential future value or the one who won't be around early in the season?

And I'm not buying the argument others make that we had to improve the 1B situation in August and September. The Red Sox were a .500 team at the deadline. I don't think many people thought on August 2 that the Red Sox were going to the playoffs in 2022, a statement that I think most posters would agree with.

Look, I agree with Chaim on the deal. Groome was expendable to the Sox. I doubt he was going to be on the 40 man roster and I doubt other teams would have taken him because of the injury. I even expect SD to leave him off the 40 man this off season.

So at the end of the day, we have some COST CONTROLLED insurance at 1B next season with Hosmer on the team. I know there are Hosmer Haters out there, but I don't think Chaim is one......So we'll just wait and see I guess..
 

nvalvo

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You have written that "He has potential future value in the event Casas falls off the world somehow." But you also wrote earlier "Hosmer might survive the winter on the roster, but he's not going to be around longer than that." So which Hosmer are you refering to? the one with potential future value or the one who won't be around early in the season?

And I'm not buying the argument others make that we had to improve the 1B situation in August and September. The Red Sox were a .500 team at the deadline. I don't think many people thought on August 2 that the Red Sox were going to the playoffs in 2022, a statement that I think most poste
Look, I agree with Chaim on the deal. Groome was expendable to the Sox. I doubt he was going to be on the 40 man roster and I doubt other teams would have taken him because of the injury. I even expect SD to leave him off the 40 man this off season.
You don’t seem to understand the mechanics involved with Groome and the 40 man. No one thinks he would get claimed in rule 5 if he were off the 40 man. But he is on the roster; to get him *off* the roster, we’d have to expose him to waivers, and he *would* get claimed in that context.

The Padres have space for a pitcher who can’t immediately help on their roster. We don’t.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You have written that "He has potential future value in the event Casas falls off the world somehow." But you also wrote earlier "Hosmer might survive the winter on the roster, but he's not going to be around longer than that." So which Hosmer are you refering to? the one with potential future value or the one who won't be around early in the season?
It's quite simple, and it hinges entirely on Casas. If Casas is the choice to start at 1B next year, Hosmer no longer has a place on the team. Hosmer isn't going to back up Casas. He's only holding the seat until Casas is ready to take it (my saying "falls off the world" meaning he's never ready to take it). So when I say Hosmer might survive the winter, but not much longer, I mean he'll be around in spring training. Should Casas seize the job and break camp on the big league roster, as most expect, Hosmer will be moved. I don't foresee a scenario in which they're both on the 26-man roster in 2023.

And I'm not buying the argument others make that we had to improve the 1B situation in August and September. The Red Sox were a .500 team at the deadline. I don't think many people thought on August 2 that the Red Sox were going to the playoffs in 2022, a statement that I think most posters would agree with.
Doesn't really matter what "many people" or posters here thought. It only matters what Chaim Bloom thought on August 2. And he clearly saw an opportunity to improve the 2022 team's chances solely by cashing in a prospect who certainly wasn't going to help in 2022 and probably wasn't going to be around in 2023. There's very little down side to find with the trade unless you're inclined to think that Jay Groome was going to be a key part of the Red Sox future.
 

BravesField

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It's quite simple, and it hinges entirely on Casas. If Casas is the choice to start at 1B next year, Hosmer no longer has a place on the team. Hosmer isn't going to back up Casas. He's only holding the seat until Casas is ready to take it (my saying "falls off the world" meaning he's never ready to take it). So when I say Hosmer might survive the winter, but not much longer, I mean he'll be around in spring training. Should Casas seize the job and break camp on the big league roster, as most expect, Hosmer will be moved. I don't foresee a scenario in which they're both on the 26-man roster in 2023.



Doesn't really matter what "many people" or posters here thought. It only matters what Chaim Bloom thought on August 2. And he clearly saw an opportunity to improve the 2022 team's chances solely by cashing in a prospect who certainly wasn't going to help in 2022 and probably wasn't going to be around in 2023. There's very little down side to find with the trade unless you're inclined to think that Jay Groome was going to be a key part of the Red Sox future.
agree to disagree?

Let Chaim make the call and that will be that....
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I think this is correct. Hosmer recently stated something to the effect of no offense to the Nats, but I want to play for a contender. He's likely to choose cellar-dwelling teams for his 10 no-trade blocks, but I think there'd be a market among mid-market contenders. The Twins have played Arraez out of position at first base all year. The Mariners made an emergency trade for Carlos Santana, whose contract is expiring. Cleveland is likely to trade Rosario for a haul and move Owen Miller back to second base, opening up a hole at first. Between them, the Giants, Brewers, Cubs and others, I think there'd be a market for him where all parties are happy.
Maybe, but the other teams get the internet, too; if we’re sitting here figuring that Hosmer will get released if/when Casas wins the job, wouldn’t teams who are interested know that too and just wait the situation out?
 
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Super Nomario

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It's quite simple, and it hinges entirely on Casas. If Casas is the choice to start at 1B next year, Hosmer no longer has a place on the team. Hosmer isn't going to back up Casas. He's only holding the seat until Casas is ready to take it (my saying "falls off the world" meaning he's never ready to take it). So when I say Hosmer might survive the winter, but not much longer, I mean he'll be around in spring training. Should Casas seize the job and break camp on the big league roster, as most expect, Hosmer will be moved. I don't foresee a scenario in which they're both on the 26-man roster in 2023.
I don't know, I can think of a couple different scenarios where it might make sense. The team has a lot of holes to fill this offseason. If they spend big at SS and CF, say, they might go cheap at DH, in which case Hosmer (or Casas, or some combination of the two) might be an option. Or if they decide to go defense-first at some of the up-the-middle positions they need to fill (C, SS, CF), having a solid bat on the bench to pinch hit might be more important than it has been historically.
 

JM3

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Maybe, but the other teams get the internet, too; if we’re sitting here figuring that Hosmer will get released if/when Casas wins the job, wouldn’t teams who are interested know that too and just wait the situation out?
If we're sitting here figuring that the Red Sox would release an asset with value to other teams rather than trading that asset to the highest bidder, even if it's a low bid, we're doing it wrong.

& if MLB teams are reading this forum to decide whether or not to trade for Hosmer, they're doing it even wronger.
 

scottyno

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Maybe, but the other teams get the internet, too; if we’re sitting here figuring that Hosmer will get released if/when Casas wins the job, wouldn’t teams who are interested know that too and just wait the situation out?
Someone giving up a small asset is worth them not having to convince him to sign with them over the other teams that will be interested
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Okay, so maybe let’s move on from our weak side platoon 1B. Who should catch for this team next season?

Internal candidates:
  • McGuire
    • I for one have been very impressed with his play since he has joined the Red Sox, even if I don't know how likely he is to maintain a .474 BABIP. Looks like a plus thrower and the framing stats look good-not-great.
    • 27 years old; first round pedigree. He went from PIT to TOR in the Drew Hutchison trade. Dealt to CHI earlier this year, and now to BOS at the deadline.
    • No power to speak of (he has 44 XBH in his entire 590 PA career), but a low strikeout rate. Clearly a glove-first guy.
    • Under team control through 2026.
    • His Juvenile Game Thread Humor over Replacement Catcher is off the charts.
  • Plawecki
    • We pretty much know what we're looking at here. Well-regarded veteran; can't really hit or throw.
    • 31 years old and FA eligible. Probably time to bid him a fond adieu.
  • Wong
    • Hitting a respectable .275/.338/.428 in Worcester, better lately.
    • His defense seemed to be getting a lot of good press back in the spring.
    • SoxProspects #17
    • Can he get his offensive ceiling above "backup?"
  • Hernandez
    • Paraphrasing SoxProspects (they have him #39), Hernandez is a poor blocker and receiver with a plus-plus throwing arm.
    • He has a power-over-hit offensive profile.
    • He might be a minor league FA this offseason? I'm not sure where to look for that.
External targets:
  • Murphy
    • The A's have a two excellent C prospects, so it is widely expected Sean Murphy will be traded this offseason. Probably pretty expensive to acquire in trade. BTV thinks something like Houck, Yorke and Duran gets it done, but it's hard to judge these markets.
    • 27 years old; arb eligible; three years until FA.
    • Not quite the hitter Contreras is on paper, but park differences make it closer than it initially appears. .230/.320/.430 isn't a terrible line for a catcher who plays his home games in the Coliseum. OPS+ 113 — basically the same as Contreras.
    • Very good defender, though! The framing numbers like him, and he throws pretty well.
  • Contreras
    • Great RH hitter: .250/.350/.450 type. Really lengthens a lineup with his patience and pop. Career OPS+ 114.
    • 30 years old.
    • Mixed as a defender: mediocre framer, throws well.
    • His market is tough to predict — does 4/$60 get it done? Weirdly, the Cubs did not trade Contreras, but I still don't think anyone expects them to retain him, so he would likely come with a QO attached. If the bidding doesn't go insane, he could be a great get.
    • We'd need a Buchholz-style filter to teach people to spell "Willson."
  • Vazquez
    • Since we last saw Christian, he's been scuffling, posting a .545 OPS for Houston.
    • But whatever: he's a well-rounded catcher with playable offense and a good collection of defensive skills, even if his once-elite arm never came all the way back from TJS.
    • One would imagine he'd not be especially expensive in FA — 3/$20m? — and he sounded interested in a reunion.
  • Narvaez
    • 30 years old.
    • Patient hitter without much pop: .260/.350/.390 type.
    • Good defender, maybe very good. Hard to say, because he's rated much better since he arrived in Milwaukee than he did earlier in his career. Maybe they taught him something; maybe they just have a fantastic pitching staff.
    • Probably one of the cheaper FA starting catcher types.
  • Zunino
    • 31 years old.
    • Free agent. No idea what he'll get.
    • Power over hit, offensively. .200/.270/.410 career line. Loooooots of strikeouts, but also the odd 30 HR season.
    • Good framing numbers for most of his career.
    • edit: per Yelling At Clouds, below, Zunino just had TOS surgery, which I think probably disqualifies him. (Thanks, YAC!)
There are a few other guys like Gary Sanchez, Martin Maldonado, and Roberto Perez who didn't seem especially likely to me.

Thoughts? Anybody I missed?
 
Last edited:

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
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Jul 19, 2005
3,407
Just going to note for the record that Zunino recently had thoracic outlet surgery on his non-throwing shoulder.
 

nvalvo

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I think my first choice (if the price is manageable and he is interested) would be to have Contreras and McGuire split time behind the plate, with Contreras also picking up a fair amount of DH PAs. (Platooning with Valdez, whose OPS split vs. RH in AAA is like 1.100) You put Wong on the bench as a utility IF/C3 type to avoid catastrophes.

Vs. RH, you'd have something like:

CF Duran LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
C Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
LF Pham RH
DH Valdez LH

Vs. LH, you'd do something like:

LF Pham RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
2B Story RH
DH Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
C McGuire RH
CF Duran LH

That yields a position player picture like this. I've picked up Tommy Pham's option, and maybe resigned Kiké.

C McGuire RH
C Contreras RH
C/UI Wong RH — (adds to our C depth, but also has good minor league splits against LHP and so makes sense to spell Casas and Devers at the corner spots).
1B Casas LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
MI Arroyo RH
OF Duran LH
OF Verdugo LH
OF Pham RH
OF4 TBD RH? (Kiké would make a ton of sense, honestly, because he could be a RH OF and middle infield depth)
DH/OF5 Valdez LH
 

Daniel_Son

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May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego
If they're looking at trades, what would it take to get Nick Fortes from Miami? He's only 25, under control through 2028, and is currently sporting a .788 OPS - good for 8th-best behind the dish (min. 100 PAs). There's also Tyler Stephenson from Cincinnati - more of a track record but probably more expensive to acquire. He also has experience at 1B, for what it's worth.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I think my first choice (if the price is manageable and he is interested) would be to have Contreras and McGuire split time behind the plate, with Contreras also picking up a fair amount of DH PAs. (Platooning with Valdez, whose OPS split vs. RH in AAA is like 1.100) You put Wong on the bench as a utility IF/C3 type to avoid catastrophes.

Vs. RH, you'd have something like:

CF Duran LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
C Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
LF Pham RH
DH Valdez LH

Vs. LH, you'd do something like:

LF Pham RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
2B Story RH
DH Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
C McGuire RH
CF Duran LH

That yields a position player picture like this. I've picked up Tommy Pham's option, and maybe resigned Kiké.

C McGuire RH
C Contreras RH
C/UI Wong RH — (adds to our C depth, but also has good minor league splits against LHP and so makes sense to spell Casas and Devers at the corner spots).
1B Casas LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
MI Arroyo RH
OF Duran LH
OF Verdugo LH
OF Pham RH
OF4 TBD RH? (Kiké would make a ton of sense, honestly, because he could be a RH OF and middle infield depth)
DH/OF5 Valdez LH
IMO, if you have two capable catchers on your 26 man, Wong is a wasted bench spot. Is his experience and skill at other positions that good that you choose him to be a utility IF over a guy who is actually a utility IF? In his professional career, Wong has just 13 starts at 3B (MiL 2018 and 2019) and no starts at 1B.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I'd be comfortable enough going into next year with McGuire/Wong & acquiring an upgrade only if the price is nice.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I think my first choice (if the price is manageable and he is interested) would be to have Contreras and McGuire split time behind the plate, with Contreras also picking up a fair amount of DH PAs. (Platooning with Valdez, whose OPS split vs. RH in AAA is like 1.100) You put Wong on the bench as a utility IF/C3 type to avoid catastrophes.

Vs. RH, you'd have something like:

CF Duran LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
C Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
LF Pham RH
DH Valdez LH

Vs. LH, you'd do something like:

LF Pham RH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
1B Casas LH
2B Story RH
DH Contreras RH
RF Verdugo LH
C McGuire RH
CF Duran LH

That yields a position player picture like this. I've picked up Tommy Pham's option, and maybe resigned Kiké.
I'm fine letting Casas play vs L but he should be hitting 8th or 9th vs L. Definitely not 4th. The plan works for me (if Xander takes Story money) but it does block Mayer for some time. Opens up the possibility of trading him for a really good, cost controlled CF. They also have no one in the system at C so signing one this offseason doesn't block anyone. I don't think the team is high on Wong or Ronaldo and see them as more 3rd string C.

I really don't see where Mayer slots in if Story is here until 2026, Xander is here until 2027, Devers until 2034, Casas at 1b. I guess if they rotate 1b/2b/SS/3b/DH between them and Mayer it works out.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
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Jan 13, 2021
11,947
Re: backup catcher situation, Hernandez is out of options and Wong has one option year left. I doubt either guy is really part of the plan going forward, but if they want to keep Hernandez around it would likely need to be in Boston.
 

BravesField

New Member
Oct 27, 2021
252
Okay, so maybe let’s move on from our weak side platoon 1B. Who should catch for this team next season?

Internal candidates:
  • McGuire
    • I for one have been very impressed with his play since he has joined the Red Sox, even if I don't know how likely he is to maintain a .474 BABIP. Looks like a plus thrower and the framing stats look good-not-great.
    • 27 years old; first round pedigree. He went from PIT to TOR in the Drew Hutchison trade. Dealt to CHI earlier this year, and now to BOS at the deadline.
    • No power to speak of (he has 44 XBH in his entire 590 PA career), but a low strikeout rate. Clearly a glove-first guy.
    • Under team control through 2026.
    • His Juvenile Game Thread Humor over Replacement Catcher is off the charts.
  • Plawecki
    • We pretty much know what we're looking at here. Well-regarded veteran; can't really hit or throw.
    • 31 years old and FA eligible. Probably time to bid him a fond adieu.
  • Wong
    • Hitting a respectable .275/.338/.428 in Worcester, better lately.
    • His defense seemed to be getting a lot of good press back in the spring.
    • SoxProspects #17
    • Can he get his offensive ceiling above "backup?"
  • Hernandez
    • Paraphrasing SoxProspects (they have him #39), Hernandez is a poor blocker and receiver with a plus-plus throwing arm.
    • He has a power-over-hit offensive profile.
    • He might be a minor league FA this offseason? I'm not sure where to look for that.
External targets:
  • Murphy
    • The A's have a two excellent C prospects, so it is widely expected Sean Murphy will be traded this offseason. Probably pretty expensive to acquire in trade. BTV thinks something like Houck, Yorke and Duran gets it done, but it's hard to judge these markets.
    • 27 years old; arb eligible; three years until FA.
    • Not quite the hitter Contreras is on paper, but park differences make it closer than it initially appears. .230/.320/.430 isn't a terrible line for a catcher who plays his home games in the Coliseum. OPS+ 113 — basically the same as Contreras.
    • Very good defender, though! The framing numbers like him, and he throws pretty well.
  • Contreras
    • Great RH hitter: .250/.350/.450 type. Really lengthens a lineup with his patience and pop. Career OPS+ 114.
    • 30 years old.
    • Mixed as a defender: mediocre framer, throws well.
    • His market is tough to predict — does 4/$60 get it done? Weirdly, the Cubs did not trade Contreras, but I still don't think anyone expects them to retain him, so he would likely come with a QO attached. If the bidding doesn't go insane, he could be a great get.
    • We'd need a Buchholz-style filter to teach people to spell "Willson."
  • Vazquez
    • Since we last saw Christian, he's been scuffling, posting a .545 OPS for Houston.
    • But whatever: he's a well-rounded catcher with playable offense and a good collection of defensive skills, even if his once-elite arm never came all the way back from TJS.
    • One would imagine he'd not be especially expensive in FA — 3/$20m? — and he sounded interested in a reunion.
  • Narvaez
    • 30 years old.
    • Patient hitter without much pop: .260/.350/.390 type.
    • Good defender, maybe very good. Hard to say, because he's rated much better since he arrived in Milwaukee than he did earlier in his career. Maybe they taught him something; maybe they just have a fantastic pitching staff.
    • Probably one of the cheaper FA starting catcher types.
  • Zunino
    • 31 years old.
    • Free agent. No idea what he'll get.
    • Power over hit, offensively. .200/.270/.410 career line. Loooooots of strikeouts, but also the odd 30 HR season.
    • Good framing numbers for most of his career.
    • edit: per Yelling At Clouds, below, Zunino just had TOS surgery, which I think probably disqualifies him. (Thanks, YAC!)
There are a few other guys like Gary Sanchez, Martin Maldonado, and Roberto Perez who didn't seem especially likely to me.

Thoughts? Anybody I missed?
Thoughts????

If the Cubs re- sign Contreras, it will cost them more so would they make Yan Gomes available to save a few bucks.. I think Gomes may be under control for 1 or 2 more years.

And maybe San Diego's Jorge Alfaro might be available if Luis Campusano comes up to back up Austin Nola next year.....

It's as far as my thinking goes
 

nvalvo

Member
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Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
Thoughts????

If the Cubs re- sign Contreras, it will cost them more so would they make Yan Gomes available to save a few bucks.. I think Gomes may be under control for 1 or 2 more years.

And maybe San Diego's Jorge Alfaro might be available if Luis Campusano comes up to back up Austin Nola next year.....

It's as far as my thinking goes
These are good thoughts.

Gomes is 35, and in the middle of a 2/$13 deal with a team option. He doesn't really hit at this stage of his career (.625 OPS for the last two years; better when he was younger), but he's a good defender.

Alfaro is 29 and about to be arb2. .260/.310/.400-ish offensively, although he had a bit more pop earlier in his career. Strikes out a tooooon. Just so-so defensively.

They are definitely candidates, but I'm not sure I like either of them better than just handing the job to Wong and McGuire, or reacquiring Vazquez.
 

nvalvo

Member
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Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
I'm fine letting Casas play vs L but he should be hitting 8th or 9th vs L. Definitely not 4th. The plan works for me (if Xander takes Story money) but it does block Mayer for some time. Opens up the possibility of trading him for a really good, cost controlled CF. They also have no one in the system at C so signing one this offseason doesn't block anyone. I don't think the team is high on Wong or Ronaldo and see them as more 3rd string C.

I really don't see where Mayer slots in if Story is here until 2026, Xander is here until 2027, Devers until 2034, Casas at 1b. I guess if they rotate 1b/2b/SS/3b/DH between them and Mayer it works out.
Any scenario where I'm resigning Bogaerts is one where everyone agrees that there's a chance he's playing another position in the back half of the deal, likely LF.

2023 sees Mayer (20) in AA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb2
2024 sees Mayer (21) in AAA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb3
2025 sees Mayer (22) in MLB, Bogaerts in LF, Verdugo FA

Is Bogaerts a bit expensive as a LF? Sure.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,308
Any scenario where I'm resigning Bogaerts is one where everyone agrees that there's a chance he's playing another position in the back half of the deal, likely LF.

2023 sees Mayer (20) in AA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb2
2024 sees Mayer (21) in AAA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb3
2025 sees Mayer (22) in MLB, Bogaerts in LF, Verdugo FA

Is Bogaerts a bit expensive as a LF? Sure.
Or if you can get Bogaerts to sign a Correa type deal that keeps him in Boston a few more years, but probably not long term. He might be agreeable to that if he doesn't find the long term market he's hoping for this offseason. Maybe something like 2-60 with a 3rd year player option for another 30.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
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Jan 13, 2021
11,947
Opting out of 3/60 to end up with 2/60? Not impossible but for that to happen I think a lot will have gone wrong and it’s hard to imagine him going back to Boston for a deal like that, no?
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,308
Opting out of 3/60 to end up with 2/60? Not impossible but for that to happen I think a lot will have gone wrong and it’s hard to imagine him going back to Boston for a deal like that, no?
Well there have been people here that seem to think it's not impossible that he actually opts in to 3-60, so maybe he opts out with a tacit understanding between the 2 sides of him staying on a similar length deal, but at a fairer market value.
 

curly2

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2003
4,887
Any scenario where I'm resigning Bogaerts is one where everyone agrees that there's a chance he's playing another position in the back half of the deal, likely LF.

2023 sees Mayer (20) in AA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb2
2024 sees Mayer (21) in AAA, Bogaerts at SS, Verdugo Arb3
2025 sees Mayer (22) in MLB, Bogaerts in LF, Verdugo FA

Is Bogaerts a bit expensive as a LF? Sure.
I think left field is a perfect spot for Xander in his 30s.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,386
I'd bring back Vaz for another go-round if they don't think they have anything better in Hernández, which they may not. Vaz is a team leader, very popular, familiar with the staff, and has handled playing in Boston very well. He may not be Jason Varitek 2.0, but he's been better than just about everybody else they've had back there since 'Tek hung 'em up. Plus, as mentioned, he's probably cheap and would only cost money. See if Hernández will sign another minor league deal or let him walk. A catcher who can't catch isn't very useful. Maybe a position change?

McGuire is interesting, almost like a slightly better Kevin Cash. I liked Cash when he was here and, masturbation jokes aside, Reese has been a solid pickup. I offer him backup money and maybe do a 70/30 split with Vázquez as far as playing time. If Wong is ready and they feel he has earned a shot, McGuire can be dealt at the deadline and Wong can get his playing time, maybe a bit more, and they can see if Vaz is willing to slowly move into the backup spot and be a mentor. Or, if they like what they have on the ML team, move Wong for a better return than McGuire or Vaz might get.

Or, if they feel 2023 is going to be another "bridge year," give Wong the keys and see if Vaz will come back as a backup who plays like 40% of the games, so they'll know what they have in Wong for '24 and beyond. I get the feeling they aren't going to spend a lot at the catcher position, so I think it's more likely they stand pat (Wong starts, McGuire or Plawecki re-sign as a backup) or just bring back Vaz than anything else.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
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Jan 23, 2009
20,677
Maine
McGuire is interesting, almost like a slightly better Kevin Cash. I liked Cash when he was here and, masturbation jokes aside, Reese has been a solid pickup. I offer him backup money and maybe do a 70/30 split with Vázquez as far as playing time. If Wong is ready and they feel he has earned a shot, McGuire can be dealt at the deadline and Wong can get his playing time, maybe a bit more, and they can see if Vaz is willing to slowly move into the backup spot and be a mentor. Or, if they like what they have on the ML team, move Wong for a better return than McGuire or Vaz might get.

Or, if they feel 2023 is going to be another "bridge year," give Wong the keys and see if Vaz will come back as a backup who plays like 40% of the games, so they'll know what they have in Wong for '24 and beyond. I get the feeling they aren't going to spend a lot at the catcher position, so I think it's more likely they stand pat (Wong starts, McGuire or Plawecki re-sign as a backup) or just bring back Vaz than anything else.
There's no need to "offer" McGuire anything. He's under team control for three more years. Safe to assume he'll be one of the catchers next year. The only question is whether he's the primary starter, primary back-up, or part of a 50/50 split.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,390
I think 2024 we might see three Boston teams either win the championship or be really close (because you never know how it will go in the playoffs):

Red Sox - 2023 will be one more step towards being a legit WS contender but won’t be there. In fact it might be a step “back” in terms of MLB performance but the pieces for the next great Sox team will be there for 2024.

Patriots - same idea. This year might be a step back in terms of W-L record but they’re putting the pieces in place. 2023 will be a huge step forward, then in Mac’s fourth season they’ll be a legit SB contending team.

Celtics - they may very well be the champs this coming year but I’m assuming that Tatum has to wait two more seasons before getting a ring.

Who knows if I’m right but I think the 2024 season will be phenomenal for those three franchises. Can we hang in there til then as fans?