What does 2023 look like?

Petagine in a Bottle

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You didn't answer my question - So if Casas struggles or is injured, you're OK with starting Bobby Dalbec at first next year?

And if not, what's the cost of upgrading Hosmer that you think is a wise and prudent use of resources? Who do you get, and/or who do you give up/what do you pay?
If Casas struggles, I’d let him play. If he gets hurt, I guess I’d be ok with Bobby Dalbec and his career .758 ops over Hosmer and his .764, but I’m not sure why those are my only two choices. Acquring a 1WAR 1B in the event that Casas is incapicated shouldn’t be that expensive- after all, what was the cost to get Hosmer?

Is your plan that you would keep both Hosmer and Casas on a big league roster? I’m not sure how that works.

(Here’s what I don’t get. Theres all this talk about how the Sox are rebuilding from within, and the farm system is now “loaded”, a “monster”! Yet, we want to let our top prospect continue to play in the minors, maybe even for much of next season, so we can give playing time to….a 33 year old Eric Hosmer?)
 

walt in maryland

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I wish there were more roster spaces because there's Valdez too.

Regarding 2023: Valdez can probably rotate between DH/1b/2b/3b/LF if the bat is worth getting in the lineup. The large majority being at DH.

I'm also in the keep Hosmer around group but if Casas does well, move on from Hosmer quickly and replace him with Dalbec or someone else. I'm not sure the spot on the 40 man will matter this offseason.
Just a hunch, but I could easily see Dalbec being traded this winter
 

BaseballJones

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Again, I don’t know how both Hosmer and Casas can co-exist on the same roster. So I’d go with Casas and a RH backup, and adjust from there if he gets hurt.
Casas starts and Hosmer is a backup DH/1b and pinch hitter who makes the same as the rookies (league minimum). You could do a lot worse for a bench player than a guy who's put up a 109 ops+ the past three seasons who makes no money.
 

walt in maryland

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I don't know anything about the guy but if we think Hosmer is worth 1 WAR I'd take that over a 25 year-old that's pitched <35 innings since 2019. I'm not sure Casas is above replacement level after OPS+ing 115 at AAA (he's still 22). Can Casas defend?
Casas is said to be an excellent defender.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I'd like to see more than a 10 day hot streak. If he puts up that same .313/.436/.625 over a couple months, he'd deserve a call up.
Kind of a high bar, don’t you think? Might as well trade him if a couple of months of that is what it takes for a call-up over Bobby Dalbec and Eric Hosmer. Those are peak Manny Ramirez numbers!
 

grepal

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Hosmer could also add value as a defensive replacement. We probably are not bringing JD back for a year so there could be left-handed at bats at DH, I hope they do not offer JD as I think he is declining. I do hope they can sign Devers, With the shortstops available we need to ask is Xander the wisest use of a large money chip, other options may be better players moving forwards. This is complicated as Mayer may be ready in 2-4 years. Not to mention all the other shortstops we have lined up in the minor leagues. Hopefully a couple of them develop in good major leaguers. This is going to be a very interesting off season. I would consider letting Xander walk, signing Devers and offering big money to Judge. Getting a good, not great shortstop or second baseman and spending whatever is left to help the pitching. If a center fielder who can catch the ball fell in our lap i would like one of those also.
 

Max Power

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Kind of a high bar, don’t you think? Might as well trade him if a couple of months of that is what it takes for a call-up over Bobby Dalbec and Eric Hosmer. Those are peak Manny Ramirez numbers!
Manny Ramirez hit .317/.424/.690 as a 21 year old at AAA. Enmanuel Valdez has a slash line of .324/.406/.610 this season at AAA. It's not unreasonable to expect a hitting prospect to be crushing minor league pitching before they get called up.
 

moondog80

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Since Pham is a free agent this winter and Hosmer isn't, I"ll take Hosmer.
As i understand it, the Sox hold an option on Pham, they can pay him 6 million to come back or 1.5 to become a FA. I'm betting on him coming back.
 

chawson

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As i understand it, the Sox hold an option on Pham, they can pay him 6 million to come back or 1.5 to become a FA. I'm betting on him coming back.
Seems like a decent bet. A lot of teams must have passed on Pham before he settled on the Reds. I could see him really liking it here, but it may take a lot of other moving pieces. The Verdugo in RF experiment may not last a while (he's -2 defensive runs saved over there in 11 games).
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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As i understand it, the Sox hold an option on Pham, they can pay him 6 million to come back or 1.5 to become a FA. I'm betting on him coming back.
I believe it is a *mutual* option:
https://theathletic.com/3468785/2022/08/01/tommy-pham-trade/
"Pham, 34...signed with the Reds as a free agent on March 26, agreeing to a contract that pays him $6 million this season with a mutual option for $6 million in 2023 that includes a $1.5 million buyout."
 

chawson

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What would a trade for Schwarber look like? The Phillies are fatally flawed with their current defensive shortcomings and Schwarber made it clear in a recent interview that he wished he had come back to Boston (not that his feelings about it matter much for trade purposes).

EDIT: I've wondered if Bloom thought he could sign Schwarber as part of the Renfroe trade and it just never came together. It felt like there was a window pre-lock out when Schwarber would have signed a very reasonable 4 year deal to come back to Boston.
Can you post a link to that Schwarber interview? Did not see it.

It's an interesting idea. Castellanos has been the real disaster for them. I don't know what it would take in a trade (not much) but I'd be plenty happy with Schwarber in the DH spot at 3/$60 million.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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They don't need to coexist for the entire season and please help me out here with something. I keep reading about how bad a defender Hosmer is. He's won 4 Gold Gloves, when did he become so bad at fielding his position?
Is the bolded sarcasm? I mean nobody takes gold gloves seriously, right? Derek Jeter and '99 Rafael Palmeiro are classic examples of why the award is a sham.

Eric Hosmer is below average for his career in every major fielding metric including defensive runs saved, range, and zone rating. He was arguable competent in his KC days, but he has not been good since.
 

moondog80

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moondog80

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It means they both have to agree for him to come back. If either side (or both) say no, Pham gets $1.5M and is a free agent.
Got it. So effectively, he's a free agent. They can both agree to come back at those or any other terms in more or less the same way as Eovaldi, JDM, etc.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Can you post a link to that Schwarber interview? Did not see it.

It's an interesting idea. Castellanos has been the real disaster for them. I don't know what it would take in a trade (not much) but I'd be plenty happy with Schwarber in the DH spot at 3/$60 million.
I'd be thrilled to have Schwarber as DH and occasional LF for 3/$60 for his age 30-32 seasons.

Start at the 2:50 mark:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPfUnV1RxuA
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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The only way I can see having Hosmer and Casas on the roster at the same time next year is if the Sox go without a full time DH. But that seems like a pretty big missed opportunity to add offense to the team since essentially then Hosmer is taking the full time DH roster spot. IF they do acquire someone to DH, Hosmer has to take one of the 4 bench spots and you also need a backup catcher, someone to cover SS and the other IF positions, and someone to backup CF. It would seem more useful to have a corner OF with a better bat than a fallback option for Casas.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'd be thrilled to have Schwarber as DH and occasional LF for 3/$60 for his age 30-32 seasons.

Start at the 2:50 mark:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPfUnV1RxuA
Am I missing something? He said thanks for the support, talks about how things were special last year and they thought their run wasn't going to end where it did and how he still hears his "Kyle from Waltham" nickname when he goes up to bat in Philly.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Am I missing something? He said thanks for the support, talks about how things were special last year and they thought their run wasn't going to end where it did and how he still hears his "Kyle from Waltham" nickname when he goes up to bat in Philly.
"[The end of last year] was a special run. I don't think anyone saw it ending there. We thought we had something special... and it sucks... but now being with the Phillies, every time I take the field, I still hear Kyle from Waltham..."

I hear that as acknowledging he wanted to stay in Boston. Maybe others hear it differently.

EDIT: listening again, I can see your take. It depends whether the "run" was the playoff games or his time on the team in Boston.
 

JM3

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It means they both have to agree for him to come back. If either side (or both) say no, Pham gets $1.5M and is a free agent.
Are we sure that's how it works? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me if so.

The structure that makes the most sense to me is the Red Sox can offer him $6m to stay or $1.5m not to, & if the Red Sox offer the $6m then Pham has the option to take it or be a free agent with no $1.5m.

Haven't been able to find the details one way or the other, though.
 

nvalvo

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So if Casas struggles or is injured, you're OK with starting Bobby Dalbec at first next year?
Yes. If we're going to build from within, we're going to need to accept that the kinds of players we can acquire to be Plans B and C are the kinds of players who don't generally have any better options. Going into this year, the backup plan at first was Travis Shaw for precisely this reason.

Your backup plans are generally going to be "AAAA" types like Dalbec or else post-peak players clinging to roster viability like Shaw. There's a reason Pham chose the Reds over the Red Sox this winter, and I doubt it was that the Red Sox didn't match or beat Cincinnati's offer monetarily.

So, in that light: an honest question. Do we think Hosmer is going to meekly accept a backup role? He's 32, not 35, and probably thinks of himself as a starter (even if someone just paid ~$50m to get him off their roster). Maybe he would, because he seems like a likable dude with positive vibes and he has a preexisting relationship with Casas from Florida. But there is definite potential for clubhouse strife there.
 

jon abbey

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Are we sure that's how it works? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me if so.

The structure that makes the most sense to me is the Red Sox can offer him $6m to stay or $1.5m not to, & if the Red Sox offer the $6m then Pham has the option to take it or be a free agent with no $1.5m.

Haven't been able to find the details one way or the other, though.
Cot's always has these things:

 

JM3

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Cot's always has these things:

That doesn't say the order of the operation of the buyout, though does it?

A "buyout" doesn't make sense to me unless the team doesn't want to offer the contract. Otherwise it just doesn't make any sense as a contract provision, unless it's just a hidden $1.5m for 2022 deferred a year.

Both sides would have to feel like Pham was worth exactly $4.5m in 2023 for both sides to accept that option if he gets the $1.5m either way. Which is a pretty silly structure.

So to me "mutual option" should mean Red Sox get the 1st option ($6m offer to Pham or $1.5m if that's not on the table) & Pham gets the 2nd option ($6m 2023 salary or free agency). That technically is still a mutual option with a buyout, Pham is protected with the $1.5m even if he sucked in 2022, & there's a window between a $4.5m value & a $6m value where it makes sense for both sides to accept the option.
 
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mikcou

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Cot's always has these things:

I dont think its necessarily clear from there that the buyout is required if Pham is the one who turns down the option rather than the Red Sox turning it down.

Edit: Handled somewhat by JM3 above, but the only real reason to have a buyout if Pham declines is that they wanted to effectively defer $1.5M from 22 to 23. Otherwise its a nonsensical structure.
 

jon abbey

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Buyouts work that way all the time, BOS is paying Pham $6M to play next year or $1.5M to leave, no matter whose decision that is.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yet, we want to let our top prospect continue to play in the minors, maybe even for much of next season, so we can give playing time to….a 33 year old Eric Hosmer?
I'm not arguing for that. Maybe you should respond to whomever is?

So, in that light: an honest question. Do we think Hosmer is going to meekly accept a backup role? He's 32, not 35, and probably thinks of himself as a starter (even if someone just paid ~$50m to get him off their roster). Maybe he would, because he seems like a likable dude with positive vibes and he has a preexisting relationship with Casas from Florida. But there is definite potential for clubhouse strife there.
It's a good point. I think some of that will depend on how Casas and Hosmer finish August and September, the signings in the off-season, and whatever Cora promises Hosmer's role will be on the club if retained.

If Hosmer was kept for 2023 on a promise to play, but was regulated to not playing due to other players blossoming, there's not much cost in giving him his release, or even trading his contract to someone who needs him (perhaps due to early season injury.) He still has a limited non-trade clause, but he'd have incentive to waive it in that sort of situation.

His non-trade clause might be a barrier to including him in some trades in the off-season though.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Buyouts work that way all the time, BOS is paying Pham $6M to play next year or $1.5M to leave, no matter whose decision that is.
Yeah, this. Don't overthink it. Sox can pick up the option for $6M, but if Pham wants free agency he'll decline the option and get $1.5M or the Sox can decline the option and pay him $1.5M. He's either getting $6M to play for the Sox next year or $1.5M to go to free agency.
 

JM3

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Buyouts work that way all the time, BOS is paying Pham $6M to play next year or $1.5M to leave, no matter whose decision that is.
Can you give me some examples of this? Not saying you're wrong at all, but it's a stupid structure if true. How would the language look on Cots if the option was the way I stated?

This is old but it's the 1st thing I found on point:

Mutual Options

Finally, we’ll look at mutual options, which of course require both player and team to agree to accept the salary provided in the option year. Generally, mutual options include a buyout owed by the team if it does not exercise its end of the option. If, instead, the player declines his side, he usually sacrifices some or all of the buyout.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/options-in-mlb-contracts-primary-option-types.html
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Usually buyouts are because a team declined an option. In this case, it sounds like the Sox can accept the option yet still owe Pham a buyout, which is not very common.
 

E5 Yaz

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Can you give me some examples of this? Not saying you're wrong at all, but it's a stupid structure if true. How would the language look on Cots if the option was the way I stated?
Two posters who are well-versed in this sort of thing -- @jon abbey and @ElcaballitoMVP -- have assured you that this is how it works. My humble suggestion is that you accept that they know what they're talking about and move on.
 

Yo La Tengo

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There are a lot of moving parts, but, if the Sox have a full-time designated hitter in 2023, this seems like a reasonable bench: Hosmer/Casas, Arroyo, Refsnyder (or someone similar), catcher. If there is no full-time DH, there could be a 5th player added to the bench mix.

Hosmer is hitting .317/.355/.416 against lefties this year in over 100 at bats. Last year he hit .262 and he's a career .254 hitter against lefties. He could start against tough lefties and let Casas take the rest.

I don't see any issue in starting the year with Hosmer and Casas on the opening day roster, with Casas playing 4-5 days a week (1B and DH), Hosmer playing 3 days a week (1B and DH), and seeing whether Casas is ready to be the full time first baseman. If we reach June 1st and Casas looks great, trade or cut Hosmer. Maybe at that point Dalbec is ready to come up or some other addition to the 1B/DH spot looks better. Regardless, the Sox need a viable option at 1B if Casas craps out next spring, and Hosmer is a good fit for that role in that he's a slightly above average player (who could benefit from hitting at Fenway) who costs almost no money. As for whether he accepts that role, what choice does Hosmer have? I think his status was made clear by what the Padres had to do to move him and his only option to play more is to put up good numbers.
 
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ngruz25

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I believe that mutual options and buyouts are just ways to defer money for tax and luxury tax purposes. Mutual options are rarely exercised, so Pham essentially signed a one year deal with an extra $1.5 million that was not assessed against his income taxes or the Reds' payroll for 2022.

He'll decline the option, take his free $1.5 million, and head to free agency. Maybe he resigns with the Sox, but he seems like a poor fit to me. They need someone who can play RF.
 

JM3

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Two posters who are well-versed in this sort of thing -- @jon abbey and @ElcaballitoMVP -- have assured you that this is how it works. My humble suggestion is that you accept that they know what they're talking about and move on.
I understand this might not be an interesting topic for you, & it's really trivial in the general scheme of things, especially as it relates to the 2023 Red Sox (although Pham is much more likely to be back if the option is the way I suggest) - but I'm being respectful, showing my work, & it's a very interesting topic to me, so if they're able, I'd like for them to be able to show their work. If they can't & that's just the way that it is, then so be it. I think it's an inefficient way to defer money, but that's ok.
 

Ganthem

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There are a lot of moving parts, but, if the Sox have a full-time designated hitter in 2023, this seems like a reasonable bench: Hosmer/Casas, Arroyo, Refsnyder (or someone similar), catcher. If there is no full-time DH, there could be a 5th player added to the bench mix.

Hosmer is hitting .317/.355/.416 against lefties this year in over 100 at bats. Last year he hit .262 and he's a career .254 hitter against lefties. He could start against tough lefties and let Casas take the rest.

I don't see any issue in starting the year with Hosmer and Casas on the opening day roster, with Casas playing 4-5 days a week (1B and DH), Hosmer playing 3 days a week (1B and DH), and seeing whether Casas is ready to be the full time first baseman. If we reach June 1st and Casas looks great, trade or cut Hosmer. Maybe at that point Dalbec is ready to come up or some other addition to the 1B/DH spot looks better. Regardless, the Sox need a viable option at 1B if Casas craps out next spring, and Hosmer is a good fit for that role in that he's a slightly above average player (who could benefit from hitting at Fenway) who costs almost no money. As for whether he accepts that role, what choice does Hosmer have? I think his status was made clear by what the Padres had to do to move him and his only option to play more is to put up good numbers.
I am not arguing against having both on the roster, but the Sox are going to have to commit to playing Cassas all season with the understanding that he is going to probably struggle his first full season. Unless he is opsing under 600 come June you have to keep him up.
 

snowmanny

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I understand this might not be an interesting topic for you, & it's really trivial in the general scheme of things, especially as it relates to the 2023 Red Sox (although Pham is much more likely to be back if the option is the way I suggest) - but I'm being respectful, showing my work, & it's a very interesting topic to me, so if they're able, I'd like for them to be able to show their work. If they can't & that's just the way that it is, then so be it. I think it's an inefficient way to defer money, but that's ok.
Here’s an example. Joc Pederson declines his side of the mutual option and takes the buyout instead. The article lays out how it works quite specifically.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/joc-pederson-declines-option-braves-free-agent.html
 

JM3

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Here’s an example. Joc Pederson declines his side of the mutual option and takes the buyout instead. The article lays out how it works quite specifically.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/joc-pederson-declines-option-braves-free-agent.html
That's actually 2 examples - Duvall, too.

Here's a counter-example, but old:

But today, lo and behold, a mutual option was exercised by both sides and setup man Matt Belisle will stay with the Rockies for $4.25 million.

Had the Rockies declined their half, they would have paid Belisle a $250,000 buyout. Belisle’s option was tacked on to a two-year, $8.125 million deal the two sides agreed to in Feb. 2012.
The interesting thing about those Braves contracts, especially the Duvall one, is that they are structured in a way that the 1st year is super small & they're pretty clearly deferred salary. Curious if the Braves were trying to duck the tax that year.

Seems like not really...

https://wtop.com/sports/2022/03/2021-luxury-tax-payrolls/

Pham's contract actually drops from $6.5m to $6m in the option year, & the Reds payroll is low (21st), so it seems like something that is more likely to be meant to actually work be an option than a deferred $ vehicle... unless the Reds signed him with the plans of trading him & making his new team take in the entirely of the extra $1.5m. Which is possible.
 

effectivelywild

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I understand this might not be an interesting topic for you, & it's really trivial in the general scheme of things, especially as it relates to the 2023 Red Sox (although Pham is much more likely to be back if the option is the way I suggest) - but I'm being respectful, showing my work, & it's a very interesting topic to me, so if they're able, I'd like for them to be able to show their work. If they can't & that's just the way that it is, then so be it. I think it's an inefficient way to defer money, but that's ok.
I had the same thought as you---it seems weird that Pham can decline the option and still get the 1.5 million---but it sounds like that's the way it works. What would be more logical to me is if Pham had to pay the Sox 1.5 million if he declines the option---fair is fair, after all.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That's actually 2 examples - Duvall, too.

Here's a counter-example, but old:



The interesting thing about those Braves contracts, especially the Duvall one, is that they are structured in a way that the 1st year is super small & they're pretty clearly deferred salary. Curious if the Braves were trying to duck the tax that year.

Seems like not really...

https://wtop.com/sports/2022/03/2021-luxury-tax-payrolls/

Pham's contract actually drops from $6.5m to $6m in the option year, & the Reds payroll is low (21st), so it seems like something that is more likely to be meant to actually work be an option than a deferred $ vehicle... unless the Reds signed him with the plans of trading him & making his new team take in the entirely of the extra $1.5m. Which is possible.
It's entirely a real dollars cost saving measure (deferring costs). It saves teams nothing when it comes to the luxury tax because the buyout is included in the first year contract value. So, in Pham's case, his total luxury tax hit for 2022 is currently $7.5M ($6M salary + buyout). It will remain that way if the option is declined. If the option is picked up, then his number is re-calculated to $6M because the $1.5M rolls forward and is counted as part of the $6M he will be paid for 2023.
 

nvalvo

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As for whether he accepts that role, what choice does Hosmer have? I think his status was made clear by what the Padres had to do to move him and his only option to play more is to put up good numbers.
Well, the choice he has is to be a pain in the clubhouse. Will he do that? I have no idea.

In any case, I think trading him this offseason makes sense precisely because he is a somewhat valuable asset at his current cost. That benefit is probably greater for a small or mid-market team that doesn't have a league-wide top-20 1B prospect in AAA, or maybe that has a promising prospect a year away or something. Right now, Pittsburgh is playing Michael Chavis and his .695 OPS at 1B most days; maybe Ben would like Hosmer as a positive veteran presence for their young team. Milwaukee has Rowdy Tellez, who hits decently but can't really field the position at all. Oakland has Seth Brown there, but maybe they'd rather play him in an outfield corner now that Piscotty is moving on. Are the White Sox retaining José Abreu? Maybe it would make sense for them to go cheap with Hosmer and throw some extensions at their young stars.
 

JM3

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This was a good read - although still a few years old & I wish it put actual #s on things:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18519226/show-mind-games-mutual-options-not-money

There are four ways a mutual option can work: (1) No buyout at all. This is rare. (2) A buyout regardless of who declines the option. (3) A buyout only if the club declines the option. (4) Each side's option is at a different price. So the club might have an option to pay the player $10 million, while the player might have an option to play at $8 million.
Nobody could give a definitive answer, but based on our review of public information about the 100 mutual options, it appears that the second type -- a buyout regardless, such as in Bautista's new deal -- is the most common. But the third and fourth types do exist, and in those cases, there is a narrow sliver of salary where both sides can make a rational decision even if they disagree about what the player is worth.
So you guys win - I do think it would make sense if the reporting on contracts specified, though, because to me options 3 & 4 make by far the most sense in terms of there actually being an overlap when a mutual option makes sense & isn't just for show.
 

JM3

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Here's a more recent example of a 1-way buyout:

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees
$2.3 million player option; $7.15 million club option ($1.15M buyout)
Gardner could sign on for his 15th season with the Yankees if he exercises his player option. If he declines, New York would likely opt to pay him a $1.15 million buyout instead of picking up his club option.
https://www.mlb.com/news/players-with-2022-options-and-opt-outs

Seems like a mix of options 3 & 4.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Well, the choice he has is to be a pain in the clubhouse. Will he do that? I have no idea.

In any case, I think trading him this offseason makes sense precisely because he is a somewhat valuable asset at his current cost. That benefit is probably greater for a small or mid-market team that doesn't have a league-wide top-20 1B prospect in AAA, or maybe that has a promising prospect a year away or something. Right now, Pittsburgh is playing Michael Chavis and his .695 OPS at 1B most days; maybe Ben would like Hosmer as a positive veteran presence for their young team. Milwaukee has Rowdy Tellez, who hits decently but can't really field the position at all. Oakland has Seth Brown there, but maybe they'd rather play him in an outfield corner now that Piscotty is moving on. Are the White Sox retaining José Abreu? Maybe it would make sense for them to go cheap with Hosmer and throw some extensions at their young stars.
So, if the sox trade Hosmer this winter, what's the plan if Casas really struggles and needs to be sent back to AAA?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So, if the sox trade Hosmer this winter, what's the plan if Casas really struggles and needs to be sent back to AAA?
Dalbec? Trade for someone? Sign someone like Jose Abreu to DH and play him at 1B a few days a week?

I'm on record as not wanting to trade Hosmer over the winter, but I also don't think it's tenable to have both Casas and him on the roster once next season starts. Once they go with Casas, they have to go all in on him and move on from Hosmer. It's untenable roster construction to hang on to Hosmer just in case Casas fails.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Dalbec? Trade for someone? Sign someone like Jose Abreu to DH and play him at 1B a few days a week?

I'm on record as not wanting to trade Hosmer over the winter, but I also don't think it's tenable to have both Casas and him on the roster once next season starts. Once they go with Casas, they have to go all in on him and move on from Hosmer. It's untenable roster construction to hang on to Hosmer just in case Casas fails.
Why is a bench of Hosmer, Arroyo, OF, catcher untenable?

Dalbec. I really doubt the 2023 team is going to have huge playoff aspirations. It's going to be a bridge year.
I expect Bloom to have playoff aspirations next year. He better or else he will likely be looking for a new job.

At this point, I have no interest in relying on Dalbec in any way/shape/form for 2023. The debate seems to be whether there are other first baseman owed almost no money who will be available in a trade next year, and if the Sox would want to give up anything to acquire such a player or just keep Hosmer on the roster for a few months as risk protection.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Why is a bench of Hosmer, Arroyo, OF, catcher untenable?
Because it's needlessly redundant. If there's anything we know about Bloom and Cora, it's they prefer flexibility on their bench. Backing up Casas with an older clone (LHH hitter that can't play other positions) shortens the bench unnecessarily. Dalbec, as a RHH who can also play 3B (and maybe 2B in a pinch) would be a more suitable bench player in this scenario. Or a RHH who can also play corner OF or something (Refsnyder?).

Hosmer is a fine plan if they don't think Casas is ready. If they trust Casas and commit to him to start the year, Hosmer has no place anymore.
 

mikcou

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Because it's needlessly redundant. If there's anything we know about Bloom and Cora, it's they prefer flexibility on their bench. Backing up Casas with an older clone (LHH hitter that can't play other positions) shortens the bench unnecessarily. Dalbec, as a RHH who can also play 3B (and maybe 2B in a pinch) would be a more suitable bench player in this scenario. Or a RHH who can also play corner OF or something (Refsnyder?).

Hosmer is a fine plan if they don't think Casas is ready. If they trust Casas and commit to him to start the year, Hosmer has no place anymore.
Agree. The only way that bench works is if the every day DH is really a guy who has defensive versatility. In the world of 4-man benches, its really hard to see the value of Hosmer being one of those pieces. Having three guys (starting 1B, DH, Hosmer) all not able to field anything but first puts a lot of pressure on effectively 2 bench fielders to cover everything else other than catcher.
 

nvalvo

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So, if the sox trade Hosmer this winter, what's the plan if Casas really struggles and needs to be sent back to AAA?
Hosmer is simply not an impactful player. Depending on the defensive numbers you look at, he's either below average or borderline-unplayably bad at 1B, and he's had precisely one positive oWAR season since 2017, and it was the pandemic shortened one. He had a few very well-timed good years in his middle 20s that won a title for KC and an insane overpay contract for him. He made sense for Boston in 2022 as a midseason Plan D at 1B. But in 2023, if your playoff aspirations hinge on giving Eric Hosmer an Opening Day roster spot simply because he's cheap, you don't actually have playoff aspirations. You're filling a roster spot with a below average player, with no remaining upside and all of the collapse potential of so-so post-30 hitters, who hits from the wrong side of the plate, on purpose. Also, you might lose some pitching depth in the Rule 5 draft because he's clogging up the 40-man.

Going all in on Casas, who has a wildly higher ceiling than Hosmer, is the move to make, I would argue, if you are intending to try to compete for a playoff spot, rather than just muddle to .500. Is there performance risk with Casas? Absolutely. But he's the best offensive prospect we've had since Devers, and if you're asking which player is the better bet to post a 3+ WAR season in 2023, it's Casas. Hell, I'd like Dalbec's chances to do that over Hosmer's.

When the Sox gave Dustin Pedroia the keys at second base in 2007, they had a 30 year old Alex Cora as the backup plan, who was already a few seasons deep into the Yolmer Sanchez stage of his playing career. He had had an OPS+ of 56 the year prior. But he actually had a useful carrying tool for the roster, which was good defense at several positions — and being a well-regarded sign stealer.
 

Daniel_Son

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If SD found no trade partner for Hosmer, they were going to release him. Now some team ahead of the Sox in the pecking order would have claimed him. It's obvious that Chaim wanted Hosmer and he has a plan for him and that plan goes beyond 2022. Do you really think Chaim just wanted to shore up the 1B position for August and September? Jay Groome had value to the Sox, probably in a future deal with another team, but value none the less. Bloom is not going to move Groome for 2 months of Hosmer and 2 lottery ticket A ball types.

Hosmer is on this team next year or he will be traded. Any talk of him being released in the off season makes no sense.
I mean, yeah. Happens all the time. Doug Mientkiewicz says hello.