What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
I don't yet know how good this team is or can be when it's at full strength, but it's fun and it fights, and that's good enough for me.
I'm staying away from the pitching side of things, so this is what I'm liking about the offense.
Looking at team comparisons on fangraphs, so far they are:
-Tough to strike out (5th best in MLB).
-Top 10 in ISO
-4th in UBR (basically the WAR equivalent of baserunning)
In most other categories (.OBP, wRC+. wOBA) they are a bit better than league average.
They have also faced very stingy pitching staffs in Tampa, Minnesota and Milwaukee top 5 in many of the rate stats. Pittsburgh the Angels and the O's are also good staffs so far.
They work the counts, battle until the end, and run the bases intelligently. The blunders have been notably limited. By the eye test, they are a lot better on defense than they were last season but that wasn't a tough hurdle to clear. They really missed Trevor Story and Duvall against that very unusual frequency of lefties and probably left some wins on the table.
I think they'll be a top 5 offense by season's end.
Looking at team comparisons on fangraphs, so far they are:
-Tough to strike out (5th best in MLB).
-Top 10 in ISO
-4th in UBR (basically the WAR equivalent of baserunning)
In most other categories (.OBP, wRC+. wOBA) they are a bit better than league average.
They have also faced very stingy pitching staffs in Tampa, Minnesota and Milwaukee top 5 in many of the rate stats. Pittsburgh the Angels and the O's are also good staffs so far.
They work the counts, battle until the end, and run the bases intelligently. The blunders have been notably limited. By the eye test, they are a lot better on defense than they were last season but that wasn't a tough hurdle to clear. They really missed Trevor Story and Duvall against that very unusual frequency of lefties and probably left some wins on the table.
I think they'll be a top 5 offense by season's end.
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I think he's just talking defensively. Chang is pretty good and Kike is good at 2nd or CF. That configuration is better than Kike at short and Duvall in CF when it comes to catching the ball. It's much worse if you want them to hit it.
I'd have assumed that in ST there'd always be a regular roster guy who was nominally designated the break-glass emergency backup catcher and given a few hours instruction in gear, behind the plate, catching balls to keep that skillset moderately scrolled up in muscle-memory. At least so they wouldn't injure themselves while doing it.
Maybe they did do something like that and that person is now injured. But it seems an obvious checklist thing to do, along with IDing position players who can pitch without hurting themselves.
I think what he's trying to say, poorly, is the best defensive alignment for the team is Chang at SS and Kike in CF. At least, I hope he's referring to the defense alone. Factoring in offense, the equation gets murky.
That makes sense - I was thinking overall. Chang's always had promise/potential though, so it would be a gift if he turned it on and became a bit of a 2021/22 Arroyo. I know that's a bit of wishful thinking given his track-record (many more PAs than Arroyo had at this point in their relative careers). But he is 27, and it's not entirely unheard of for a quasi-late bloomer to flourish in their late 20s.
Chang's an interesting batter. Per his Savant page he's always had a split that favors RHP, and he's a fastball hitter - sliders seem to eat him alive. Oddly he had better success (relatively speaking) against both lefties and breaking balls in 2021. His minor league numbers are very good, and he's a natural pull hitter, so, Fenway.
He may never overcome his K rate, but all things being equal, I'd rather roll the dice on Chang than Iglesias as a stopgap.
(Assuming the Sox batting coaches are up to snuff. And there, frankly, it seems to be a bit of a crap-shoot.)
Image is career minor league hit location.
Attachments
Duran is crediting some of his early success to a healthier mental approach and leadership from Turner and Enrique:
I’m hoping this attitude can rub off on Casas.
https://theathletic.com/4434579/2023/04/20/jarren-duran-second-chance-red-sox/
I’m hoping this attitude can rub off on Casas.
And Kike is better than Arroyo at 2B. The Chang-Kike SS-2B is quite solid defensively. I *think* the rest of the offense can carry their bats.
They're one game over 500 and still in last place. It's beginning to look like a fun team to watch, but let's ease up on the victory lap, okay?
Especially since, by extrapolation, it implies Bloom's "plan" was always going to be Chang-Hernandez in the middle infield and Durran in CF
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It only really shows that Bloom's plan to start the season was Hernandez-Arroyo in the middle IF and Duvall in CF.
Bloom picked up Chang in case of injury so there was a dedicated defensive SS on the roster. He held on to Durran (FWIW) to have CF depth in AAA. He didn't oversign elsewhere as he reasonably expects Story back at 2B/SS in the second half, and grabbed Mondesi as a potential plus player at SS/2B for (hopefully) most of the year.
So far, Duvall's injury is one of those random things to a keystone defensive position, and as such it hit the weakest point. But so far the depth plan is holding together. Hernandez moved to CF, and Chang came in to compensate. Having a MiL player like Durran on the 40, as general OF insurance (as he can play CF), is basic good practice, which is in this case is paying dividends because he may have turned a corner and this creates more depth in the SS/2B/CF scum. Bloom also held onto low-upside vets like Tapia, Allen, Goodrum, Palka, Crook, and Aquaman, in case one had lighting in a bottle, or there were more injuries elsewhere, or the higher level MiL players struggled or could not make the transition to ML this year.
And that all of the starting pitchers (aside from Houck) are going to get bombed in pretty much every game. The offensive bones are here on this team, but there's still a lot to do in terms of pitching.
American League Standings
1. TB 19-3 (.864)
2. Bal 14-7 (.667)
2. Tex 14-7 (.667)
4. Tor 13-9 (.591)
4. NY 13-9 (.591)
6. Min 12-10 (.545)
6. Hou 12-10 (.545)
8. Bos 12-11 (.522)
5 of the top 8 teams in the league are in the AL East.
4 of the top 5 teams in the league are in the AL East.
All five teams in the AL East are .522 or better.
The AL East run differential is +134.
The AL Central run differential is -118.
The AL West run differential is -7.
Conclusion: The AL East is an absolute beast of a division. Boston could end up with 85 wins and in last place.
1. TB 19-3 (.864)
2. Bal 14-7 (.667)
2. Tex 14-7 (.667)
4. Tor 13-9 (.591)
4. NY 13-9 (.591)
6. Min 12-10 (.545)
6. Hou 12-10 (.545)
8. Bos 12-11 (.522)
5 of the top 8 teams in the league are in the AL East.
4 of the top 5 teams in the league are in the AL East.
All five teams in the AL East are .522 or better.
The AL East run differential is +134.
The AL Central run differential is -118.
The AL West run differential is -7.
Conclusion: The AL East is an absolute beast of a division. Boston could end up with 85 wins and in last place.
Now that Duran is up and playing regularly, Tapia seems a bit redundant. Another LHH OF when they already have 3. Seems like this roster spot could be better served w/ another MI, since Arroyo is already banged up and Kiki can't really play SS. The choices in house are Valdez, Goodrum and Hamilton.
Valdez looked as advertised in his brief stint here, but I wonder if Hamilton gets a shot if he continues tearing it up for another ~100 PAs in AAA. 11 SBs in 17 games would look really nice up here.
3rd out of 30 in runs scored.
26th out of 30 in runs allowed.
So...yep. Jansen has been great, but gotta get those starters turned around.
Yoshida (very small sample size obviously) has hit better the last four games. Obviously his monster game yesterday skews these numbers, but really it's been the last four.
Last 4 games: 17 ab, 3 r, 7 h, 1 2b, 0 3b, 2 hr, 9 rbi, .412/.389/.824/1.212
2-5, 2 rbi
1-4, 1 2b, 1 rbi
2-4
2-4, 2 hr, 6 rbi
Good little run here.
Last 4 games: 17 ab, 3 r, 7 h, 1 2b, 0 3b, 2 hr, 9 rbi, .412/.389/.824/1.212
2-5, 2 rbi
1-4, 1 2b, 1 rbi
2-4
2-4, 2 hr, 6 rbi
Good little run here.
I doubt very much that one week of Duran is enough for them to cut bait with Tapia. We've been down that road with Duran before. If the issue is Arroyo is banged up, he can go on the IL to get another MI up.
Tapia is a guy who you cut and don't worry about because there will always be another Raimel Tapia somewhere. Fast dudes with non-existent sticks and mediocre defense aren't exactly hard to find. Tapia's saving grace early on was being left-handed; so long as Duran is up and producing, there's no role for him on the roster. His spot is better filled by a left-handed-hitting infielder to play ahead of Arroyo on the regular and/or hit for Hernandez or Chang against RHP late (if they can find that guy anyway). But Tapia shouldn't be playing ahead of Duran and, given that all three OFers are lefties, is a bad option to be a reserve, especially with Refsnyder already on board.
I had forgotten his previous fast starts. He held on there, in terms of OPS for a good 19 games in 2022. His meltdown was in his 43rd game that year, but he was already well-below league average in OPS.
He appears to have a much better attitude/approach this year by all accounts.
I brought this up a few days ago, and still agree. If they lose Tapia (which they may not, I’d be can’t find a big league job), I’m not sure what the big loss is (Greg Allen could probably do the same thing). He’s fine but certainly fungible. Bring up Dalbec (who can take some at bats vs lefties) or Alfaro (who allows the team to be more aggressive in PH for the starting catcher).
What is the plan? The only thing that seems semi coherent is that they cut payroll and are going 45+ for Ohtani this offseason. This team was a literal smattering of throwing shit against the wall and hopping it sticks while resetting the table. Guys like Duvall, Turner, Kluber, Jensen, and Paxton have no long term value to the team, and unless everything goes your way, doesn't really get you in to the post season.
Look if the plan is Ohtani and build around Devers, Casas, Story, and I guess Yoshida ok. I can see that. You spend the year figuring out if Houck, Whitlock, Bello, and Mata can stick in a major league rotation. You get Duran as much OF experience and gage what you got (Everyday CF or 4th OF). Figure out what catchers can stick and decide if you want to continue the Verdugo or Pivetta experience. That said outside of that, everyone should be on the table come July. Hopefully Sale can pitch himself into a prospect or two. Issue you really have with Bloom is he really doesn't know the free agent market. His negotiations have not really worked out well outside of grabbing guys bounce back contracts. He continuously misjudges the market and does not have a great skill getting people here without overpaying. Devers is the only solid top flight contract he has landed after years and years of screw ups.
I think you are about halfway there, and I don't think it's all that complicated, we've seen it a lot: hang back and create salary/roster flexibility until you have a foundation of real talent that you can go all in on. While you're hanging back, buy low on all sorts of contributor types. Don't trade anyone who matters. Give out salary but not years. The only decisions they made which don't follow this pattern were the decisions to not sell off JD, Nate and a few others (I think they maaaybe thought of Nate as a long term guy but by season's end they changed their mind). Bogaerts was a borderline choice, where if you got him long term you probably won't regret it too much, but in a different town (Miami for example) you would have 100% traded him. Anyway, after that, all they have done is built for the future, avoid admitting that they are doing that, and fielding competitive teams as a way of shutting up people and trying out some supporting cast guys.
Oh, and I think the plan is to grab one of Otani, Urias or maybe Yoshinobu Yamamoto, if available. I don't think you can plan too much around Shohei unless you know something. That seems like a longshot. But you might swoop in on one of the other guys while the entire league is focused on Otani's contract.
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The plan is what it’s been for the past few years; build as good a team as possible while limiting long term risk, become more aggressive as more young, cost controlled talent is in place.
Jansen has looked great so far, so I'd count that one in Bloom's favor, too. Honestly, Story is really the only guy I can understand as a "miss," and I don't even agree with that because 1. he's got an elite ceiling at a bargain, and 2. he's looked really good when healthy. What do you mean by "years and years of screw ups"?
And "grabbing guys on bounce back contracts" is a strategy that works for where this team is at right now. We're still building the foundation - signing a top-flight contract doesn't magically make the team a 100+ game winner. Once the foundation is in place (when we know what we have with the younger guys), then you go out and sign the Ohtanis and Sotos.
Re the bolded, its less of a bargain if the discount factored in the odds of an arm-plosion which went off right away. Then again, if you care solely about AAV, then getting the elbow rebuilt for the '24+ seasons is pretty galaxy brain.
The plan was to restock the farm system to obtain a sustainable talent pipeline. It's a task that typically requires 5-6 drafts, and Bloom has had 2.5 drafts so far. And there is zero evidence of the bolded. And the Duvall's and Jensen's make the current team more interesting to watch, which has value unless you think 2021 was worthless.
Moreover, while it's true that Duvall, Jansen, et al. provide no long term value, they also won't be a long term liability. Almost all long term deals turn into that at some point. They are choosing their spots carefully on that end, until the farm starts to blossom.
I didn't get to watch the game tonight, but it's disappointing to see 2023 Sale return after a brief appearance from 2017 Sale in his last start. Ten base runners in five innings, no strikeouts. Did he look as bad as his line would indicate?
His velocity was good, he just literally wasn't missing any bats. Only 2 swinging strikes, and the first time in his career that he had a start longer than 2 innings without a strikeout(I think that's the stat I heard). Who the hell knows, but after the swing and miss stuff he had last start, it looked like the Orioles knew what was coming.
So are the Orioles any good or is this a mirage?
Tied for 3rd most wins in baseball. And after their 24-35 (.407) start last year, they went 59-44 (.573) the rest of the season, which is a 93-win pace over 162 games. So have they finally turned a corner and become a good team? If so....that's basically the last thing the Red Sox need, given how good Toronto, New York, and Tampa Bay are. It makes the Sox CLEARLY the worst team in the division.
Tied for 3rd most wins in baseball. And after their 24-35 (.407) start last year, they went 59-44 (.573) the rest of the season, which is a 93-win pace over 162 games. So have they finally turned a corner and become a good team? If so....that's basically the last thing the Red Sox need, given how good Toronto, New York, and Tampa Bay are. It makes the Sox CLEARLY the worst team in the division.
Good velocity, decent but not great movement on the slider, poor command in locating his pitches.
Baltimore swung at these yesterday: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll/game?gamePk=718447&player_id=519242#pitch_swinging
Twins swung at these last time out: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll/game?gamePk=718524&player_id=519242#pitch_swinging
Looks like pumping it into the zone to avoid walks does not work. Especially when opposing teams know you're pumping it into the zone to avoid walks. Expect that to go on for a few more starts.
If they're not good now they will be soon, given their young talent & farm system. The good news is, with the changes to the schedule the divisional groupings are less relevant now than ever, right? 4th place Baltimore with 87 wins is no more impactful than 2nd place Cleveland having 87 wins.
Well...I get your point, but if the Orioles are in fourth with 87 wins and the Sox are behind them, that automatically means - regardless of whatever else is happening in the Central and West - that the Sox have three Wild Card teams ahead of them.
Oh, absolutely. We're on the same page. I'm just getting ahead of the inevitable reduction to "they are a last pace team" that would come with a theoretical 84 win season that is nonetheless behind TB/NY/BAL/TOR.
They seem similar to the Red Sox to me- a legit offense with a pretty suspect pitching staff (their staff seems to have a pretty low ceilings). They don’t have anyone as good as Raffy but their offensive core (Mountastle, Ruschman, Mullins, Henderson) is what we hope the Sox to have in a few years
I agree with this in general, but certainly not with the low ceilings part. Their staff currently features the guy who started the season as the #5 prospect in all of baseball, and they'll get an All-Star in John Means back by the all-star break.
Agreed. Even with a last place team, Fenway still draws half as many empty seats.
To be fair, my concern isn't so much the "they're a last place team" in that I've mentioned I think this exact roster in the AL Central could win the division or finish 2nd and contend in the AL West and maybe finish 2nd or 3rd (that pitching in Seattle is legit, even with Ray out).
But my concern all last season (when I was admittedly just lurking), then this off-season, and still now, is that while the roster has been improved from last year, I don't think it's made up nearly enough ground against the other AL East teams, all of which were starting from a better point.
Yes, I am of the belief that the 2023 (and 2024) seasons don't matter to the Red Sox all that much and that they're looking to build the 2025-2030 core, and I understand that. However even there, MLB has them ranked 4th in the division in farm system rankings (https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2023-preseason) which prospect ranking is of course an inexact science at best and totally worthless at minimum, but if you're falling behind the division in terms of MLB talent and are 4th in the division in farm system ranking - when you've been working on building the farm for 3 seasons and one 60 game tournament - that's something to at least give pause, in my opinion.
What I'm most interested in this year are the performances of the young players / top prospects. Admittedly the greater concern to me (and of course the miniscule sample size argument applies) are the struggles thus far of Whitlock and Bello at the MLB level. Houck has been our best starter, which is on the one hand encouraging but on the other an indictment of the rotation as a whole since he has a 4.29ERA (4.23FIP), but hey, at least SOMEONE'S FIP is below 5 and a quarter.
After those 3 (and Casas and Yoshida), I'm mostly focused on the performance and development of the prospects in the minor leagues more than anyone else on the big league roster. Mayer is off to a pretty good start, and Yorke is off to a good start. But all of Bleis, Rafaela, Mata, Perales, Walter, and Paulino are struggling while Romero is on the minor league IL). This has been somewhat tempered by the starts of Lugo and Drohan, to be fair, and of course the sample size caveat is there, but the early struggles in the minors do give me a bit of concern. Its early, but while I was anticipating a missed playoffs in the majors (I think I predicted 79-83) I was admittedly hoping to see a ton to get excited about in the minor league system.